We grouped this week’s episodes into three themes so you can jump straight to what matters: personal agency (health and home security), grand strategy (sea control and modern drone warfare), and speech/governance (free expression, fiscal risk, and biosecurity).

Theme 1: Personal Agency — Your Body and Your Home

Episode: Is Your Back Pain Physical or Mental? (Peter Attia MD with Stuart McGill, Ph.D.)

Episode Overview

Host Peter Attia speaks with spine biomechanist Stuart McGill about the interplay of psychology and biomechanics in chronic lower‑back pain, emphasizing mechanism‑based diagnosis over imaging and coaching patients to control provocation moments that trigger pain 100 I'm Peter Attia. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU 99 So can you speak more about this phenomenon and what those of us who want to help these patients can do? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU 98 Let's pivot for a moment to talk a little bit about the amount of psychological trauma that exists in the patient with lower back pain. And I'm thinking very specifically even about some of my own patients or friends who have been in the throes of lower back pain. And if nothing else, Stuart, I take a great degree of comfort from the injury, the third injury that I had, the one in 2000, because it lasted so long and because it was so debilitating, and because I'm here today without pain, my confidence around small recurrences is so high that I don't tend to awfulize about it and work myself up. But I have great empathy for a person who doesn't have that knowledge. And instead, I don't know how to help someone sometimes because I can't tell what is mind and what is body at this point. And I suspect that there's a significant interplay. So can you speak more about this phenomenon and what those of us who want to help these patients can do? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU 97 You mentioned earlier how MRIs don't show you the mechanism of pain, and I can give all kinds of reasons why. But let's take this patient. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU .

Key Insights

• Imaging can’t reveal the mechanism of pain; a targeted physical evaluation can, often by asking the patient to demonstrate the provoking movement 97 You mentioned earlier how MRIs don't show you the mechanism of pain, and I can give all kinds of reasons why. But let's take this patient. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU 91 And I said, oh, can you show me the pain? And he said, what? You want me to show you how I create the Pain. And I said, it's the only chance I have to understand it. I said, you've been to 15 different clinicians. Has no one ever asked you to show them the mechanism of your pain? Has anyone ever touched you? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU .
• Instrumented assessment (muscle EMG + 3D spine motion) can expose subtle triggers (e.g., a mid‑movement “clunk” causing sciatic irritation) that are fixable with coaching 96 I put on my instrumentation, which was muscle EMG over the torso, the glutes, et cetera. We put on the spine motion monitor, 3D motion spine monitor. And then I said, all right, let's see what causes this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU 93 Now, at that time, I heard like a little cavitation, little pop come out of his back. And that was the wrap of the sciatic nerve. And he was in a bad way. You know, I. I laid him crawling on a table, tried to give him a bit of decompression, and he went home. And I said, I know exactly what the mechanism of your pain is. Here's what you should do over the next three days, but I want you to come back. But promise me you aren't going to do anything silly. Remember what the threat was hanging over us. He said, I promise. I called him that night. I called him the next day just to make sure. Then he came back, and I said, I know exactly what your mechanism is. And here's what the data showed. As he was winding himself around, he was using muscle. Muscle is stiffening and stabilizing. It's centrating of the joints. And as he got to top dead center, he shut all his muscles off. He completely relaxed. And then there was a little shear translation or a clunk. And that's what we heard, and that's what scrapped the sciatic root. I said, okay, you have no pain. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU .
• Teaching patients to maintain muscle tone through the danger range can stop recurrent acute episodes; one coached case eliminated the “clunk” immediately and prevented future events 95 Push my fingers out harder. Good. Hold that. Now talk to me and keep talking to me with that controlling thing. And we coached him through this. And in a minute, very simple. I said, oh, keep the tone now. And we're going through. And as he came to top dead center, you could see him. Ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah. I said, we're there. Do it again. Hold on. Keep control. He didn't clunk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU 87 Now, it took him about four months to wind down the ache, but he never had another clunk or a trap. Ten years later, he brought his daughter to me, and I saw her for back pain, and he brought me a case of beer and. And he said, I said, you know, I did my one year follow up with you, but. But how have you been? Was fabulous. I said, did you ever get another episode? Never had one. Now some people will think that that's a fantastic, impossible story, Pete. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU .
• In a two‑year follow‑up of patients subcategorized by pain mechanism and given targeted prescriptions (including a “virtual surgery” pathway), 95% reported they avoided surgery and were glad they did 94 Maybe you've heard of this, but I've never heard of another clinic where they follow up with every single patient that they ever saw. We did a two year follow up with every single patient who came in and we subcategorized them because we assessed everyone into the mechanism of their pain pathway. We gave them an appropriate exercise prescription. We followed up to see did they even comply, because some people didn't. And then how are you doing after two years, if you were in the subcategory that everything has failed? You've been told you need surgery, so you're at the end of the road now you're a surgery case. In the two year follow up, following the plan that I just described for you with this thing called virtual surgery, which is part of it, 95% reported that they avoided surgery and they were glad that they did. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU 90 Maybe you've heard of this, but I've never heard of another clinic where they follow up with every single patient that they ever saw. We did a two year follow up with every single patient who came in and we subcategorized them because we assessed everyone into the mechanism of their pain pathway. We gave them an appropriate exercise prescription. We followed up to see did they even comply, because some people didn't. And then how are you doing after two years, if you were in the subcategory that everything has failed? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU .

Recommendations & Resources

• Ask patients to reproduce the exact movement that provokes pain; observe carefully for mechanical triggers 91 And I said, oh, can you show me the pain? And he said, what? You want me to show you how I create the Pain. And I said, it's the only chance I have to understand it. I said, you've been to 15 different clinicians. Has no one ever asked you to show them the mechanism of your pain? Has anyone ever touched you? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU .
• Use EMG and a 3D spine motion monitor when available to map the mechanism objectively 96 I put on my instrumentation, which was muscle EMG over the torso, the glutes, et cetera. We put on the spine motion monitor, 3D motion spine monitor. And then I said, all right, let's see what causes this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU .
• Coach to sustain appropriate muscle tone through the provocative arc to prevent shear/clunk events 95 Push my fingers out harder. Good. Hold that. Now talk to me and keep talking to me with that controlling thing. And we coached him through this. And in a minute, very simple. I said, oh, keep the tone now. And we're going through. And as he came to top dead center, you could see him. Ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah. I said, we're there. Do it again. Hold on. Keep control. He didn't clunk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU .
• Implement a structured, mechanism‑based program with compliance checks and follow‑up; consider a “virtual surgery” pathway before operative decisions 90 Maybe you've heard of this, but I've never heard of another clinic where they follow up with every single patient that they ever saw. We did a two year follow up with every single patient who came in and we subcategorized them because we assessed everyone into the mechanism of their pain pathway. We gave them an appropriate exercise prescription. We followed up to see did they even comply, because some people didn't. And then how are you doing after two years, if you were in the subcategory that everything has failed? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU 94 Maybe you've heard of this, but I've never heard of another clinic where they follow up with every single patient that they ever saw. We did a two year follow up with every single patient who came in and we subcategorized them because we assessed everyone into the mechanism of their pain pathway. We gave them an appropriate exercise prescription. We followed up to see did they even comply, because some people didn't. And then how are you doing after two years, if you were in the subcategory that everything has failed? You've been told you need surgery, so you're at the end of the road now you're a surgery case. In the two year follow up, following the plan that I just described for you with this thing called virtual surgery, which is part of it, 95% reported that they avoided surgery and they were glad that they did. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU .

Notable Quotes

“If I’m crazy, I don’t deserve to live.” 89 And if I'm crazy, I don't deserve to live. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU

“They stole my career from me, giving me that book, how to live with my back pain.” 88 He said, they stole my career from me, giving me that book, how to live with my back pain. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU

Must‑Listen Clip

• Watch the live instrumentation → provocation → coaching loop that solves a recurrent sciatic “clunk.” You’ll hear the setup, the measured finding, and the coaching that prevents the event on repeat.
  • Why it matters: It shows the full arc from mechanism discovery to immediate, teachable intervention that can eliminate acute flares 86 I put on my instrumentation, which was muscle EMG over the torso, the glutes, et cetera. We put on the spine motion monitor, 3D motion spine monitor. And then I said, all right, let's see what causes this. So he stood there and he did a very weird thing. And he said, all right, well, here you go. And he wound himself around in a circle like this. And when he got to 10, top dead center. Now, at that time, I heard like a little cavitation, little pop come out of his back. And that was the wrap of the sciatic nerve. And he was in a bad way. You know, I. I laid him crawling on a table, tried to give him a bit of decompression, and he went home. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU 85 And here's what the data showed. As he was winding himself around, he was using muscle. Muscle is stiffening and stabilizing. It's centrating of the joints. And as he got to top dead center, he shut all his muscles off. He completely relaxed. And then there was a little shear translation or a clunk. And that's what we heard, and that's what scrapped the sciatic root. I said, okay, you have no pain. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WB6WY_Tl4eU .

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Episode: The Squatter In His Closet Changed How He Protects His Family (Tim Ferriss)

Episode Overview

A home‑tour shock turns into a practical playbook for prevention‑first security: choose where (and how) you live, harden your privacy, and favor defensive tools with margin for error, trained under stress 59 We were touring the house and my wife is upstairs and she walks out of the room and she looks at the person that's showing us the house and goes, there's somebody in the closet. And we. I'm like, what are you talking about? You know, like you're. It's an empty house, Like a brand new empty house. Like, what are you talking about? And she goes, yeah. I opened the closet door, he was crunched down in the corner. And he puts his finger up to his lips and goes, shh. Like, don't tell anybody. Like, nothing more creepy than that, you know? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss 58 And he ended up being like a really nice guy. I was actually kind of impressed because he goes, I make the bed every day, I wash my clothes here because there's a washer and dryer here. And I just, I'm keeping the place nice. But he goes, this is what I do. I felt really bad for him because he said he worked at a car wash. He makes $500 a month. He can't afford a place to live. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss 56 I would say a few things for me, step number one, I mean, there are a few things, right? We can say, how do we get really good at pulling people out of the river? But then there's like, why are people falling in the river in the first place? And it's actually Desmond Tutu paraphrase. But the point of that is that there's, what do I do when someone's in my house or who comes to my house? And then there's, how do we just prevent that from happening in the first place? And there's serendipitous, accidental, unpredictable randomness. And then there's premeditated trying to find you, right? So I would say that for me, step number one is choosing very carefully where you live if you can. And secondly, just paying a lot of attention to privacy. If you might have people who are going to seek you out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss .

Key Insights

• Prioritize prevention and privacy: carefully choose residence; treat privacy/doxxing risk as central to physical security 56 I would say a few things for me, step number one, I mean, there are a few things, right? We can say, how do we get really good at pulling people out of the river? But then there's like, why are people falling in the river in the first place? And it's actually Desmond Tutu paraphrase. But the point of that is that there's, what do I do when someone's in my house or who comes to my house? And then there's, how do we just prevent that from happening in the first place? And there's serendipitous, accidental, unpredictable randomness. And then there's premeditated trying to find you, right? So I would say that for me, step number one is choosing very carefully where you live if you can. And secondly, just paying a lot of attention to privacy. If you might have people who are going to seek you out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss 48 So I would say that for me, step number one is choosing very carefully where you live if you can. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss .
• Tactics: purchase via an entity; never ship to your home; use a UPS/mailbox; red‑team your own discoverability 55 But it's like buying your home through an entity of some type, which doesn't need to cost a lot of money, but simply to cut down on how easy it is for casual kind of fair weather stalkers to find you. Never having anything shipped to your home address, always having a UPS store or some type of mailbox where everything is sent. Because if someone, for instance, sends anything to your house, maybe they're trying to be really nice, it's a friend of yours, and they send you 1-800-flowers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss 54 Before you know it, you're doxxed. Your home address is everywhere. So I would say that thinking about privacy and honestly trying to red team yourself, that's just to say we won't get into what that actually means. But the basics are have one of your friends who's smart pretend to be a stalker and try to find you. Preferably somebody who has some technical chops or is at least tech savvy. Because just because someone's crazy does not mean they're stupid. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss 47 So I would say that thinking about privacy and honestly trying to red team yourself, that's just to say we won't get into what that actually means. But the basics are have one of your friends who's smart pretend to be a stalker and try to find you. Preferably somebody who has some technical chops or is at least tech savvy. Because just because someone's crazy does not mean they're stupid. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss .
• Controlled‑access buildings add layered security (fobs/front desk/elevator controls) 53 Then I would say I never thought that high rises condos would be of any interest to me. But there are added layers of security. So my place in Austin is way the hell off of ground floor. There are multiple, I don't want to say security points, but you need a key and a fob to get through the elevators and to get past the front desk and to do these various things. So I would also consider that as a viable option if you currently have or expect to have any type of real public exposure. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss .
• Digital behavior can undermine physical security (real‑time posts, family exposure) more than weak locks 52 Security is often overrated compared to digital security, frankly. Right. So, for instance, it's like if you have physical security for a portion of the day or at your home, and then you're constantly posting where you are on social media in real time, or you're putting your family on actually publicly accessible social media. It's like, I remember this friend of mine wasn't really thinking about it, right. Because he doesn't have a lot of exposure to crazy people, but has become better known in his niche sphere. And he was at the grocery store with his kids and somebody recognized his kid and was like, oh, that's so. And so. Oh, shit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss .
• For non‑lethal defense, spray offers range and forgiveness; tasers demand practice—train under elevated heart rate to simulate stress 51 Yeah. This is the highest legal concentration you can get. Which I think is like 2.4 mc or something. You can just get a bear spray that you can hit them at 25ft. Yeah. And if you get to that point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss 50 I've played around with tasers before. Amazing tool. But just like anything else, it takes a good amount of practice to be able to hit anything with that. Yeah. Particularly under duress. So when I'm training for say bow hunting, which I've done for 10 plus years now, the way that I'll train a lot of the time as I'm getting closer to the season is I'll do a bunch of kettlebell swings outside until my heart rate is peaking, hands are kind of shaking, and then I will grab the bow and I have the ability to shoot one arrow. That's it. That's a pass fail. And practicing under those heightened conditions I think is important if you're going to take it seriously. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss 49 So when I'm training for say bow hunting, which I've done for 10 plus years now, the way that I'll train a lot of the time as I'm getting closer to the season is I'll do a bunch of kettlebell swings outside until my heart rate is peaking, hands are kind of shaking, and then I will grab the bow and I have the ability to shoot one arrow. That's it. That's a pass fail. And practicing under those heightened conditions I think is important if you're going to take it seriously. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss 44 So I think if I had to bet, I'm sure other folks are going to have good ideas here, but I think spray is probably the way to go. Yeah, spray is the way to go. It's going to have the most margin for error, and you'll have more rounds, per se than a taser if you miss, fire or you miss the target. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss .

Recommendations & Resources

• Consider high‑rise/controlled‑access living if you have public exposure 53 Then I would say I never thought that high rises condos would be of any interest to me. But there are added layers of security. So my place in Austin is way the hell off of ground floor. There are multiple, I don't want to say security points, but you need a key and a fob to get through the elevators and to get past the front desk and to do these various things. So I would also consider that as a viable option if you currently have or expect to have any type of real public exposure. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss .
• Route all deliveries to a mailbox/UPS store; never to home 55 But it's like buying your home through an entity of some type, which doesn't need to cost a lot of money, but simply to cut down on how easy it is for casual kind of fair weather stalkers to find you. Never having anything shipped to your home address, always having a UPS store or some type of mailbox where everything is sent. Because if someone, for instance, sends anything to your house, maybe they're trying to be really nice, it's a friend of yours, and they send you 1-800-flowers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss .
• Conduct a friend‑led “stalker” red‑team on your online footprint 47 So I would say that thinking about privacy and honestly trying to red team yourself, that's just to say we won't get into what that actually means. But the basics are have one of your friends who's smart pretend to be a stalker and try to find you. Preferably somebody who has some technical chops or is at least tech savvy. Because just because someone's crazy does not mean they're stupid. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss .
• Carry pepper/bear spray for greater range; only adopt tools you’ll train with under duress 51 Yeah. This is the highest legal concentration you can get. Which I think is like 2.4 mc or something. You can just get a bear spray that you can hit them at 25ft. Yeah. And if you get to that point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss 49 So when I'm training for say bow hunting, which I've done for 10 plus years now, the way that I'll train a lot of the time as I'm getting closer to the season is I'll do a bunch of kettlebell swings outside until my heart rate is peaking, hands are kind of shaking, and then I will grab the bow and I have the ability to shoot one arrow. That's it. That's a pass fail. And practicing under those heightened conditions I think is important if you're going to take it seriously. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss .

Notable Quotes

“All it takes is one crazy one.” 46 All it takes is one crazy one. All it takes is one crazy One. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss

“Security is often overrated compared to digital security, frankly.” 45 Security is often overrated compared to digital security, frankly. Right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BptBNAVIJss

Must‑Listen Clip

• The prevention‑first playbook: location choice, privacy hygiene, entity ownership, mailbox strategy, and red‑teaming your footprint.
  • What you’ll learn: Low‑friction changes that materially reduce risk before you ever need a tool.

Theme 2: Geopolitics & Strategy — From Sea Control to Drone Wars

Episode: Sarah Paine – How Hitler almost starved Britain (Dwarkesh Patel)

Episode Overview

Sarah Paine (U.S. Naval War College) explains how maritime powers win by commanding seas, then prosecuting peripheral theaters; she traces the Battle of the Atlantic’s turning points—cryptanalysis, convoy doctrine, air cover, and new ASW tech—and applies those lessons to modern narrow‑seas dynamics 84 It turns out that the possibilities for maritime and continental powers are a little different. Basically, a small subset of countries can defend themselves primarily at sea. And that opens certain possibilities and others can't. And that opens and closes certain possibilities. And I'm gonna talk at this story from Britain's point of view. The country with the 360, you can't get me moat. And it an instructive case for the United States of the possibilities and the perils of having this sort of position. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw 82 The opening move of a maritime power in a really high stakes war like this is typically blockade. What you want to do is cut your enemy off from the oceans and Force it to cannibalize its own resources and those of occupied areas. And because of the geographic position of a maritime power, you can quite often do this to a continental power on narrow seas. And Britons were well aware that Germany's a trading country. Most of it trade goes by sea, and it's also on these narrow seas. So geographically and economically, it's really vulnerable to blockade. And I get it. Germany gets alternate resources, but they come in at much higher costs. They're much more difficult. And so that you're really putting a stress on the German economy and causing inflation and other things. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw 81 So what do you do if you cannot blockade ships in port? Well, then what you're gonna try to do is commerce raiding to try and sink things when they're out and about. And that was what Germany did in World War II and why its occupation of France was so important. Because once it took the French coastline, it then set up U boat pens in brass. Lorient, Saint Nazaire, La Rochelle and Bordeaux. And they're gonna be using these to fight the Battle of the Atlantic. That's the game. So maritime powers do blockade. The the response of continental power is commerce rating. And then the maritime response to that is gonna be you're gonna convoy your merchant ships. Okay. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw 83 So that was then. How about now? Okay, this is what NATO looks like. And you can look at the United States with our western and eastern coasts that are unencumbered, you wouldn't be able to blockade those. The two narrow seas are the Sea of Labrador and the Caribbean. But basically hard to imagine that the United States Navy wouldn't be able to deploy in wartime. And same thing true on the big peninsula of Europe. Yeah, I get it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw .

Key Insights

• Maritime playbook: blockade first; expect continental commerce‑raiding; counter with convoys 82 The opening move of a maritime power in a really high stakes war like this is typically blockade. What you want to do is cut your enemy off from the oceans and Force it to cannibalize its own resources and those of occupied areas. And because of the geographic position of a maritime power, you can quite often do this to a continental power on narrow seas. And Britons were well aware that Germany's a trading country. Most of it trade goes by sea, and it's also on these narrow seas. So geographically and economically, it's really vulnerable to blockade. And I get it. Germany gets alternate resources, but they come in at much higher costs. They're much more difficult. And so that you're really putting a stress on the German economy and causing inflation and other things. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw 81 So what do you do if you cannot blockade ships in port? Well, then what you're gonna try to do is commerce raiding to try and sink things when they're out and about. And that was what Germany did in World War II and why its occupation of France was so important. Because once it took the French coastline, it then set up U boat pens in brass. Lorient, Saint Nazaire, La Rochelle and Bordeaux. And they're gonna be using these to fight the Battle of the Atlantic. That's the game. So maritime powers do blockade. The the response of continental power is commerce rating. And then the maritime response to that is gonna be you're gonna convoy your merchant ships. Okay. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw .
• Intelligence as tonnage: Enigma captures enabled evasive routing and may have saved up to 2 million tons of shipping 80 But meanwhile, the British have gotten pretty good at espionage and they've captured a lot of Enigma machines. Those are what the Germans are using to encrypt their messages. Well, the British capture some machines, some rotors, some code books in 1940 and 41. So by the summer of 1941 through February 42nd, they can actually read the codes or some of them decrypt them so that within 36 hours they can get the information out. And this allows convoys to go, oh, wolfpack there. We're going to do evasive routing of the convoys somewhere else. And that may have saved up to 2 million tons of allied shipping. But meanwhile, for the Germans, General Rommel is in North Africa and he's having troubles because he's supplied across the Mediterranean and the British and friends are sinking too many of his supplies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw .
• Tech/doctrine/production together closed the air‑cover gap (radar, hedgehogs, escort carriers, destroyer escorts), culminating in 41 U‑boats lost in May ’43 79 But eventually the air cover gap is closed. This makes a tremendous difference. There are new technologies that are introduced that ruin Admiral Dunitz. Here was what happens. The United States had radar, Germans never did. American radar improves. So you can see through the fog. The United States adds hedgehogs. What are they? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw 75 The United States had radar, Germans never did. American radar improves. So you can see through the fog. The United States adds hedgehogs. What are they? Not the cute little critters, it's rather, if you have a ship and you have hedgehogs, they deliver an elliptical spray of depth charges. So anybody who's anywhere underneath you is in a world of hurt. In addition, the United States introduces two new classes of ships. One, auxiliary aircraft carriers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw 78 So that In May of 43 the Germans lose 41 U boats. That's unsustainable. That's a massive percentage of what they have. And in one of those encounters, I think it's about 25U boats going after a convoy of 37 ships, sink nothing, lose 3U boats plus another one damaged. And on one of these U boats is Admiral Dunitz's 19 year old son Peter, who dies in all of this. So Dunitz as a result redeploys the U boats out of the North Atlantic because it's unsustainable for Germany south of the Azores. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw .
• Peripheral operations, sequenced well, relieve the main front and overextend the adversary 77 But here's what, according to Corbett, are the prerequisites for a theater. That makes a really good one for a peripheral operation. One, it has to be overseas so the enemy can't invade you or wreck your productive base. Secondly, you need local sea control to get in there. But that local sea access has gotta be better than the land access. Cause you wanna have it easier for Britain to get in and out than it is for the enemy because then attrition rates will favor Britain. Britain also should deploy a disposal force. What's that? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw 76 So here are the operational effects of these peripheral operations. You start with one where you can. If you win there, it'll open up a menu of more promising locations. All the while, you're retrieving your enemy's forces. And also, if you're doing it right, you're relieving pressure on the main front for Russia, which is doing the heavy lifting. The strategic effects, if you can do this successfully, is you're going to control resources for yourself, deny them from people you don't like, and this will help put time on your side. You're strengthening your alliance system because you're essential to each other's survival as you coordinate things and you're dividing your enemy's attentions among multiple theaters, overextending them. So you start by trying to contain the problem, and as things go on, you try to roll it back. And then you go for regime change. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw .
• Outcomes were a “package of many things”—remove any pillar (crypto, tech, alliances) and the battle looks different 74 So let's talk about why the Battle of the Atlantic turns out the way it is. If I take away cryptography, would it have turned out the same way? Negative. If I take away not just sheer amount of technology, but certain key pieces like radar and those things, what happens? Does it change? Yes, it does. What happens if the United States just doesn't like alliances that you don't coordinate things particularly well? Does it change things? Yes, it does. You can go through a list of this, of different people, are designing different types of ships, and also determining that you're gonna share things with a Briton. A Briton's providing a lot of free stuff. So if you play room of any one of these things, that Battle Atlantic turns out differently. So the story is it's probably a package of many things. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw .

Recommendations & Resources

• Read more deeply, weigh evidence across sources (don’t rely on monocausal stories) 71 I'm going to give you concepts, some data to think about because you're going to have to form your own opinions and your own conclusions, but try to make it evidence based and think about things. I recommend reading things more deeply. Don't take what any one person has to say. Come to your own terms. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw .
• Study Mahan’s prerequisites for maritime power (moat, internal transport, reliable sea egress, coastal population, stable pro‑navy government) 72 Here are his prerequisites for playing the maritime game. One, you need a moat. You've got to have insulation from attack if you want to play this game. You need a dense internal transportation grid to get the goods out in peacetime, reliable egress by sea to get the navy out in wartime, a dense coastal population that's going to be running all the trade commerce driven economy. And then you need a government that's stable, that is going to support funding a navy and supporting Commerce. Okay, let's line up Russia and China with these prerequisites. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw .

Notable Quotes

But his idea is there's only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that's fighting without them, because they'll be toast. You need these complementary capabilities, different locations, and coordinating it, to gang up on your continental problem.

“The United States adds hedgehogs… [they] deliver an elliptical spray of depth charges.” 75 The United States had radar, Germans never did. American radar improves. So you can see through the fog. The United States adds hedgehogs. What are they? Not the cute little critters, it's rather, if you have a ship and you have hedgehogs, they deliver an elliptical spray of depth charges. So anybody who's anywhere underneath you is in a world of hurt. In addition, the United States introduces two new classes of ships. One, auxiliary aircraft carriers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw

Must‑Listen Clip

• The Atlantic turning point: cryptanalysis enables evasive routing, while radar/hedgehogs/escort carriers flip the U‑boat war (including the devastating May ’43 losses).
  • Why it’s valuable: A compact case study of how intelligence, technology, doctrine, and production interact to decide campaigns 80 But meanwhile, the British have gotten pretty good at espionage and they've captured a lot of Enigma machines. Those are what the Germans are using to encrypt their messages. Well, the British capture some machines, some rotors, some code books in 1940 and 41. So by the summer of 1941 through February 42nd, they can actually read the codes or some of them decrypt them so that within 36 hours they can get the information out. And this allows convoys to go, oh, wolfpack there. We're going to do evasive routing of the convoys somewhere else. And that may have saved up to 2 million tons of allied shipping. But meanwhile, for the Germans, General Rommel is in North Africa and he's having troubles because he's supplied across the Mediterranean and the British and friends are sinking too many of his supplies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw 79 But eventually the air cover gap is closed. This makes a tremendous difference. There are new technologies that are introduced that ruin Admiral Dunitz. Here was what happens. The United States had radar, Germans never did. American radar improves. So you can see through the fog. The United States adds hedgehogs. What are they? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw 78 So that In May of 43 the Germans lose 41 U boats. That's unsustainable. That's a massive percentage of what they have. And in one of those encounters, I think it's about 25U boats going after a convoy of 37 ships, sink nothing, lose 3U boats plus another one damaged. And on one of these U boats is Admiral Dunitz's 19 year old son Peter, who dies in all of this. So Dunitz as a result redeploys the U boats out of the North Atlantic because it's unsustainable for Germany south of the Azores. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw .

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Episode: Goodfellows — Drones, Dictators & Debt: India Flirts, Ukraine Fights, Trump Takes on The Fed (Hoover Institution)

Episode Overview

Bill Whalen moderates Neil Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster on India’s hedging between powers, Ukraine’s shift to drone‑centric warfare, sanctions leakage and Chinese support to Russia, U.S. industrial policy (Intel stake), and renewed questions about Fed independence and executive power 43 And welcome back to Goodfellows, a Hoover Institution broadcast examining social, economic, political, and geopolitical concerns. I'm Bill Whelan. I'm a Hoover Distinguished Policy Fellow, and I'll be your moderator today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 42 I read your latest piece in your substack history. We don't know where you talk about India's Prime Minister, Mr. Modi, who you know, who you met, who you've talked to before. You note that four days after Mr. Modi received sanctions from the Trump administration for buying oil from Russia, Mr. Modi takes it upon himself to go to China to meet with Putin and Xi jinping and about 16, 17 other countries. Here's my question, HR when we see what Modi is doing this strikes me as maybe kind of high school in this regard. Is this kind of the classic high school move where you hang out with somebody else to make your boyfriend jealous, or is this the beginning of a General Bromance between Mr. Modi, Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi Jinping? Well, I actually, if you look at the long history of US India relations, it's kind of, it's not aberrational, you know, it's consistent, I think, with, with what, what I describe in that, in that piece as, as India's schizophrenia between fear of abandonment and fear of entrapment. Right? The legacy of the Non Aligned Movement and so forth, and the long relationship that India's had with Russia and that relationship's deeply rooted within the Indian military. It was almost wholly reliant on Russian weapons, for example, and of course, the access to cheap energy. And so India, I think, feels aggrieved at this point and, and feels both abandoned and, and, and has this fear of entrapment at the same time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 34 It's more and more a drone war, in which both sides are deploying ever larger numbers of drones covering ever wider ranges. So there's now an extraordinarily dangerous no man's land in which really normal human movement is lethal. And this is a war the Ukrainians can actually hold out in because it makes them much less reliant on manpower and much more reliant on technology. And so I slightly improved my odds of Ukraine holding out for longer because of this shift in the way that the war is being fought, which in a way plays to Ukraine's strengths in terms of technology rather than manpower. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 38 The United States of America is now a 10% equity stakeholder in Intel. So let's go around the horn of this. John, is this a good return on investment for the US of A? Hr, does this make sense in terms of national security? And Neil, our friend Kevin Hassett, he's the head of the White House National Economic Council, he said on a quote, there will be more transactions if not in this industry than other industries. So Neil, what does history suggest about the government getting in bed with the private sector? So John, you start it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 37 Fed drift and the Fed's forays into politics, fiscal policy, transferring money from A to B, telling the banks who to lend to, assessing fines and so forth. Let me try to keep this short because I could just give a lecture here. This is very much on my mind, but it's very much on the country's mind. All of a sudden, these issues that have just laid dormant for 20 years, what's the institutional structure of the Fed, are suddenly on, on display. And not just, you know, Trump wants lower interest rates and he wants to fire Fed board members in order to get his way, and we'll see if he has the legal authority to do that. But Congress has woken up and said, hey, what's going on here? We want accountability to Congress. So this fundamental question of, you know, should the President be able to fire Fed members? Should the President be able to tell the Fed what to do? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 .

Key Insights

• India’s “fear of abandonment” vs. “fear of entrapment” explains hedging with Russia/China; long‑term interests still point toward market democracies 41 Well, I actually, if you look at the long history of US India relations, it's kind of, it's not aberrational, you know, it's consistent, I think, with, with what, what I describe in that, in that piece as, as India's schizophrenia between fear of abandonment and fear of entrapment. Right? The legacy of the Non Aligned Movement and so forth, and the long relationship that India's had with Russia and that relationship's deeply rooted within the Indian military. It was almost wholly reliant on Russian weapons, for example, and of course, the access to cheap energy. And so India, I think, feels aggrieved at this point and, and feels both abandoned and, and, and has this fear of entrapment at the same time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 35 Well, I actually, if you look at the long history of US India relations, it's kind of, it's not aberrational, you know, it's consistent, I think, with, with what, what I describe in that, in that piece as, as India's schizophrenia between fear of abandonment and fear of entrapment. Right? The legacy of the Non Aligned Movement and so forth, and the long relationship that India's had with Russia and that relationship's deeply rooted within the Indian military. It was almost wholly reliant on Russian weapons, for example, and of course, the access to cheap energy. And so India, I think, feels aggrieved at this point and, and feels both abandoned and, and, and has this fear of entrapment at the same time. And that's driving them kind of away from us and back into the orbit of Russia, who, who India believes it needs to hedge against a hostile China and a hostile Pakistan and the China Pakistan relationship, which is now almost, you know, a servile relationship that, that, that Pakistan has with, with China, both nuclear armed, by the way. And so also India thinks it can buy some time with this rapprochement with Beijing. So as I mentioned in the essay, though, I think gravity was in our favor in terms of India recognizing that its long term interest lies with free market economies and representative governments like their own, and does not lie with this axis of aggressors which was on display in terms of displays of power, right, with the parade, the, the People's Liberation army parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of what they portray as China's defeat of Japan in World War II. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 .
• The battlefield has “shape‑shifted” into a drone war; extended‑range FPV and swarms expand no‑man’s land and can favor Ukraine’s tech strengths over manpower 40 I had a conversation with an old friend of mine who's a war correspondent, is just back from the front line, and this will interest HR Especially, he said, you know, the war is changing all the time. It keeps shape shifting. It's no longer an artillery war, which it previously was, not an armor war, it's not even an infantry war. It's more and more a drone war, in which both sides are deploying ever larger numbers of drones covering ever wider ranges. So there's now an extraordinarily dangerous no man's land in which really normal human movement is lethal. And this is a war the Ukrainians can actually hold out in because it makes them much less reliant on manpower and much more reliant on technology. And so I slightly improved my odds of Ukraine holding out for longer because of this shift in the way that the war is being fought, which in a way plays to Ukraine's strengths in terms of technology rather than manpower. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 39 Actually what you mentioned is now the new materiel schlocks is FPV drones, first person view drones and especially now these wired guided ones which are impervious to electromagnetic warfare countermeasures. And, and now as you mentioned could be thrown for 30km. It used to be those FPV drones, you know, with this Filament coming out of the back could only go maybe 6, 7 km. Now they go 30 km now. Now you know what happens if you got a, if you got a very thinly manned front line, you still have to supply it, you still have to do casualty evacuation. And now whatever you're doing for logistics, you have to do over. What is this extended, really? No man's land, to use the, the Western front analogy again because of the range of those drones. So this is the latest evolution. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 34 It's more and more a drone war, in which both sides are deploying ever larger numbers of drones covering ever wider ranges. So there's now an extraordinarily dangerous no man's land in which really normal human movement is lethal. And this is a war the Ukrainians can actually hold out in because it makes them much less reliant on manpower and much more reliant on technology. And so I slightly improved my odds of Ukraine holding out for longer because of this shift in the way that the war is being fought, which in a way plays to Ukraine's strengths in terms of technology rather than manpower. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 .
• Sanctions bite less than expected; Europe’s third‑country exports and Chinese support bolster Russia’s war economy 33 I think the Russian economy is one of the more difficult things to understand in the world today because we were told, I think very misleadingly at the beginning of the war that it would be easy for the west to impose very painful sanctions on Russia. And that has not happened. And there are a number of reasons why it hasn't happened. One is obvious. The Biden administration did not want to do anything that might push inflation up, which a real disruption of Russian oil exports would have done. Less well known, the Europeans continue to export to Russia via third countries like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, etc. But I think understanding why Russia's economy has apparently been so resilient is one of the interesting challenges for economists and economic historians today. One recent piece of research that I have been looking at makes it clear that China's support for Russia's war economy is absolutely crucial to the fact that the strains and stresses have not been as great as anticipated. And I suspect we all continue to underestimate just how crucial a factor that is in the continuation of this war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 32 Less well known, the Europeans continue to export to Russia via third countries like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, etc. But I think understanding why Russia's economy has apparently been so resilient is one of the interesting challenges for economists and economic historians today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 .
• Government equity stakes (e.g., 10% in Intel) invite historical skepticism: public capital seldom fixes what private capital could not 38 The United States of America is now a 10% equity stakeholder in Intel. So let's go around the horn of this. John, is this a good return on investment for the US of A? Hr, does this make sense in terms of national security? And Neil, our friend Kevin Hassett, he's the head of the White House National Economic Council, he said on a quote, there will be more transactions if not in this industry than other industries. So Neil, what does history suggest about the government getting in bed with the private sector? So John, you start it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 24 The US Already has investment in Intel. It's called the corporate tax, the income tax. If companies succeed, the government makes money. Thank you very much. So the government does not need to have equity stakes in corporations. I'm going to take, I'm going to poach a little bit on Neil. The history of company, of governments owning equity in companies leads to telling the companies what to do. And sooner or later you're not allowed to fire people, you're not allowed to close plants, you're not allowed to do all the uncomfortable things that efficient capitalist countries do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 23 Well, far be it from me to take issue with the great Kevin Hassett. But, but, but John, I, I think that the reality is that if intel couldn't succeed with private capital, with the kind of investors that understand technology better than anyone in the world, it seems to me a little unlikely that it will do better with an equity injection from the federal government. And Intel's plight is one of the saddest stories in the history of, of Silicon Valley. I'll be absolutely amazed. And I'll buy Kevin Hassett dinner in the restaurant of his Choice in Washington D.C. if the federal government can succeed where everybody else has failed with intel in the last, what, 10 plus 20. Years, I will join you for that dinner. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 .
• Fed “independence” is conditional; broader executive expansion (tariffs, agency scope) heightens separation‑of‑powers concerns 36 I keep coming back to Arthur Schlesinger's idea of the imperial presidency. It seems to me that the real theme of the second Trump term is a very systematic expansion of the executive branch's powers. And I actually think the claim that the president gets to set tariffs is a much more profound challenge to the constitutional order, because the Constitution very explicitly says that that's the power of Congress, not the power of the president. So I'm inclined to broaden this out and see the leaning on the Fed, which is not unprecedented, as part of a kind of broader attempt to make the presidency a more powerful office. And that is making some people, including some that I take seriously, like my old friend Andrew Sullivan, very worried indeed. Bill, I know you've been thinking about this issue, too. So I think this is about much more than just monetary policy and who gets to succeed Jay Powell. It's about how powerful a president is President Trump going to be by the time he comes to the end of this second term. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 31 So independence is not an absolute. We do not elect technocrats to run things forever, because what happens, well, they run things off in their own direction. And there is a problem. The Fed has, as predictably of all semi independent agencies, steadily increased what it does, taken on more and more powers, started telling more and more people what to do, wandered into political causes that has no business doing. And so there's a question, hey, what's going on here? Independence is a limited thing that we give an agency in order to kind of tie our hands so that we don't do stupid things. But in return for. You only get to be a little bit independent if you stick to your knitting and do some limited range of operations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 37 Fed drift and the Fed's forays into politics, fiscal policy, transferring money from A to B, telling the banks who to lend to, assessing fines and so forth. Let me try to keep this short because I could just give a lecture here. This is very much on my mind, but it's very much on the country's mind. All of a sudden, these issues that have just laid dormant for 20 years, what's the institutional structure of the Fed, are suddenly on, on display. And not just, you know, Trump wants lower interest rates and he wants to fire Fed board members in order to get his way, and we'll see if he has the legal authority to do that. But Congress has woken up and said, hey, what's going on here? We want accountability to Congress. So this fundamental question of, you know, should the President be able to fire Fed members? Should the President be able to tell the Fed what to do? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 .

Recommendations & Resources

• Accelerate rapid acquisition for drones/counter‑drones (edge compute, mesh comms; one operator controlling 30–40 drones) 30 They exist now. How about drone versus drone? How about drones that have computing power at the edge and mesh communications that allow them to operate without the wire guided part of it. But the mesh communications is self healing. And then because they have computing power, they can learn. They can learn and take on missions where you go from one to many. One person right now on the front is controlling one drone. What happens when one person can control 30, 40 drones? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 22 Now there will be countermeasures to these FPV drones. They exist now. How about drone versus drone? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 .
• Deep dives: Lupfer’s The Dynamics of Doctrine; Conrad Crane’s Bombs, Cities and Civilians; Mark Kloadfelder’s Beneficial Bombing; Frank Decoder’s forthcoming book on CCP wartime strategy 29 There's a great monograph by a guy named Lupfer on this that anybody can find called the Dynamics of Doctrine. And it's fantastic about how the German army shifted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 28 But hey, on bombing and civilian morale, two great books on this Right. One is by Conrad Crane called Bombs, Cities and Civilians and the other is by Mark Klodfelder called beneficial bombing. Right. So, you know, I think those are two great critiques of that. You know, that idea that you can win, you can break will with bombing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 27 By the way, Frank Decoder's new book that'll be out soon. I've seen it, manuscript. It's fantastic. And it's about. It's about the Civil War period and really lays bare the degree to which the Chinese Communist Party was avoiding fighting the Japanese to husband their power so they could take over after the Nationalists are weakened, you know, by fighting the Japanese. Yeah, there's a lot of that at the end of Kotkin's last book, which I will come back to in our alternative histories. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 .

Notable Quotes

“It’s more and more a drone war.” 26 It's more and more a drone war, in which both sides are deploying ever larger numbers of drones covering ever wider ranges. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0

“It’s not about territory. Putin wants to make sure that Ukraine is not viable as an independent state.” 25 Putin wants to make sure that Ukraine is not viable as an independent state. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0

Must‑Listen Clip

• Ferguson on how the war “shape‑shifted” into drones and why that improves Ukraine’s odds of holding out.
  • What you’ll learn: Operational implications of FPV/swarms and the procurement/industrial policies they demand 34 It's more and more a drone war, in which both sides are deploying ever larger numbers of drones covering ever wider ranges. So there's now an extraordinarily dangerous no man's land in which really normal human movement is lethal. And this is a war the Ukrainians can actually hold out in because it makes them much less reliant on manpower and much more reliant on technology. And so I slightly improved my odds of Ukraine holding out for longer because of this shift in the way that the war is being fought, which in a way plays to Ukraine's strengths in terms of technology rather than manpower. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-qmkUdfG0 .

Theme 3: Speech, Governance & Economics — Free Expression, Fiscal Reality, Biosecurity

Episode: Destruction of Freedom of Speech and Death by Suicidal Empathy (Gad Saad)

Episode Overview

Gad Saad argues that freedom of speech must be treated as a deontological (absolute) value and warns that “suicidal empathy” misapplied to the wrong targets yields harmful policies; he cites UK arrests for offensive speech as evidence of eroding norms 67 Look, the best way to understand the schism that we're seeing these days regarding freedom of speech is something that comes from ethics. There's something called deontological ethics versus consequentialist ethics. Deontological ethics are absolute truths. So for example, if I say it is never okay to lie, that would be a deontological statement. If I say it's okay to lie, that would to spare someone's feelings, that would be a consequentialist statement. For most things it's perfectly reasonable to be a consequentialist. But when it comes to foundational values that have made the west great, those things have to be deontological. Freedom of speech is deontological, meaning you can't say, yes, I believe in freedom of speech, but not if it hurts someone's feelings. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N53XbYR7jfg 65 But when it comes to foundational values that have made the west great, those things have to be deontological. Freedom of speech is deontological, meaning you can't say, yes, I believe in freedom of speech, but not if it hurts someone's feelings. Yes, I believe in freedom of speech, but not for Donald Trump, cuz he's too nasty. Yes, I believe in freedom of speech, but not if it criticizes certain religion. You either believe in freedom of speech, you, speech or you don't. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N53XbYR7jfg 68 Coming from the uk Irish comedian Graham Lyneham, arrested upon arrival at Heathrow Airport for a tweet mocking trans people. They sent five armed cops to pick him up at the airport as he landed. For a tweet mocking trans people. It's so bad. Even the far left Atlantic magazine now calling it out, the arrest that demonstrates Europe's free speech problem, adding open debate is often obnoxious, upsetting or rude. None of these adjectives should make it a police matter, but in the UK it now is. They're arresting people left and right for things that they post on the Internet or things that they say. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N53XbYR7jfg .

Key Insights

• Free speech as a principle: not contingent on feelings or content; either upheld for all or not at all 65 But when it comes to foundational values that have made the west great, those things have to be deontological. Freedom of speech is deontological, meaning you can't say, yes, I believe in freedom of speech, but not if it hurts someone's feelings. Yes, I believe in freedom of speech, but not for Donald Trump, cuz he's too nasty. Yes, I believe in freedom of speech, but not if it criticizes certain religion. You either believe in freedom of speech, you, speech or you don't. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N53XbYR7jfg .
• “Suicidal empathy” misdirects compassion (e.g., 137th chances for felons, blanket assimilation assumptions) with damaging downstream effects 64 But like Aristotle explained to us several thousand years ago, all good things at the right amount, at the right place, to the right targets. So arguing that Ms. 13 gang members deserve more empathy than American vets is suicidal empathy. Arguing that all immigrants are just as likely to assimilate within the American experience is suicidal empathy. Giving felons a 137th second chance chance is suicidal empathy. So in the book, I demonstrate that all of the domestic and foreign problems that we're seeing stem from this misguided, misdirected empathy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N53XbYR7jfg 60 But like Aristotle explained to us several thousand years ago, all good things at the right amount, at the right place, to the right targets. So arguing that Ms. 13 gang members deserve more empathy than American vets is suicidal empathy. Arguing that all immigrants are just as likely to assimilate within the American experience is suicidal empathy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N53XbYR7jfg .
• Criminalizing rude/offensive speech (UK examples) signals a broader free‑speech problem 68 Coming from the uk Irish comedian Graham Lyneham, arrested upon arrival at Heathrow Airport for a tweet mocking trans people. They sent five armed cops to pick him up at the airport as he landed. For a tweet mocking trans people. It's so bad. Even the far left Atlantic magazine now calling it out, the arrest that demonstrates Europe's free speech problem, adding open debate is often obnoxious, upsetting or rude. None of these adjectives should make it a police matter, but in the UK it now is. They're arresting people left and right for things that they post on the Internet or things that they say. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N53XbYR7jfg 63 Even the far left Atlantic magazine now calling it out, the arrest that demonstrates Europe's free speech problem, adding open debate is often obnoxious, upsetting or rude. None of these adjectives should make it a police matter, but in the UK it now is. They're arresting people left and right for things that they post on the Internet or things that they say. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N53XbYR7jfg .
• The cost of liberty includes protecting abhorrent speech (e.g., Holocaust denial) 66 I'm Jewish. I come from a very rough childhood in the Middle east. And yet I support the right of Holocaust deniers denying the most grotesque historical reality. That's the price that I have to pay to live in a free society. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N53XbYR7jfg .

Recommendations & Resources

• Book: Suicidal Empathy (forthcoming) — promises deeper case studies and argumentation 69 Dr. Gad Saad is a visiting scholar at Ole Miss Declaration of Independence center and the author of the forthcoming book Suicidal Empathy, which is a great title for a book. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N53XbYR7jfg .

Notable Quotes

“Freedom of speech is deontological, meaning you can’t say, yes, I believe in freedom of speech, but not if it hurts someone’s feelings.” 62 Freedom of speech is deontological, meaning you can't say, yes, I believe in freedom of speech, but not if it hurts someone's feelings. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N53XbYR7jfg

“Arguing that Ms. 13 gang members deserve more empathy than American vets is suicidal empathy.” 61 So arguing that Ms. 13 gang members deserve more empathy than American vets is suicidal empathy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N53XbYR7jfg

Must‑Listen Clip

• Saad’s ethical framing of free speech (deontological vs. consequentialist) and why content‑based carve‑outs are corrosive.
  • What you’ll learn: How ethical frameworks shape policy stances on speech and their real‑world implications.

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Episode: Senator Rand Paul — Tariffs, Debt, China, and a Warning for America (All‑In Podcast)

Episode Overview

Sen. Rand Paul (physician by training) covers deficits, tariffs as taxes, Social Security reform, trade’s mutual benefits, executive emergency powers, alleged COVID‑origin cover‑ups and risky gain‑of‑function work, Fed interest payments to banks, and systemic fragility 21 I practiced private practice for about 20 years, was a physician for 20, 25 years. And you're like, it's a lot of work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 20 So you have 7 billion in spending for our federal government, 5 billion in revenue. So we're $2 billion short. Two trillion. Two trillion. It used to differentiate conservatives and Republicans and Democrats. We, as Republicans would say, yeah, deficits are bad. Let's close it by lowering spending. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 19 Trade is not an incidental issue. Trade is sort of a fundamental aspect of capitalism, and Adam Smith wrote about it. In fact, one of Adam Smith's sort of great nuggets that he gave to the world was the idea that the division of labor makes us richer. So if you don't have to sit around making your shoes or your clothes or your tie and you can do something out, you have time to think and your innovation is going to create more great things. But he also said that the division of labor and the prosperity that it creates is only limited by how far it extends. And I think what he meant by that is by trade. So, so we, you know, I'm richer in my town. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 17 There's never been a more extraordinary coverup in the sense that these people were saying in public the opposite of what they were saying in private. So Freedom of Information became the tool that uncovered a lot of this, and thousands of people helped to get this done. But in private, Anthony Fauci saying, I'm 50, 50, whether this came from the lab or animals, in publicly saying you're a conspiracy theorist and you should be treated as crazy and that we should expunge you or we should expose you, we should bring you down. Him and Francis Collins are talking back and forth about bringing down Jay Bhattacharya and all of the others that were exposing this stuff. This is extraordinary. We have the proof. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 12 Then they play the games with paying interest to keep it in the Fed, which I've got a bill to eliminate that right now. And that bill's co sponsored by Bernie Sanders. We paid 188 billion the Fed did in interest to banks, not to loan money. Most of it went to five banks in New York, the big five, but 40% of them went to foreign banks. So the Fed's buying our interest with fake money. The taxpayer still has to pay the interest back to the Fed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 .

Key Insights

• Tariffs are taxes and a relatively small revenue stream (≈$100–150B annually) versus multi‑trillion borrowing; emergency‑power use to set them raises separation‑of‑powers concerns 15 One, it's really a pittance. I think it's about 100 billion, 150 billion more than last year is what's going to come in this year. And that over 10 years might be $1.52 trillion, but we're going to borrow like $15 trillion over the next 10 years. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 14 And that over 10 years might be $1.52 trillion, but we're going to borrow like $15 trillion over the next 10 years. But when you look at it and you say from a global point of view, is it good to raise taxes? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 1 So everybody needs to forget what they think they're saying and understand the tariffs are in addition. But there's also an argument on the separation of powers. One of the things are our founders really struggled with was they worried about tyranny of one person and tyranny of the majority. And so the way our government is structured is to try to, as Madison said, pit ambition against ambition. But I think they never imagined that we'd have a Congress without any ambition. We just basically said, oh, President Trump, go ahead, just do what you want. And there's a problem with that. He's declared an emergency to raise taxes. I said, oh, we don't pay the taxes. Bullshit, we pay the taxes. But you know, there are people analyzed as a little bit done by the foreigners, a little bit done by the importer, a little bit. Yes, but it is a tax, it's a fee, and we collect it here in our country. It is a tax. The Constitution says taxes originate in the House. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 18 The president's declared an emergency on tariffs. If we wanted to stop him, we could vote by simple majority. He would then veto it and then it would take 2/3. So right now, the way the law is set up is presidential emergencies can only be stopped by 2/3 of Congress. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 .
• Social Security: favors gradual retirement‑age increases (e.g., +3 months/year to ~70) plus means‑testing rather than large upfront tax hikes 13 You know, for 12 years I've been saying just raise the age three months a year for the next 20 years and you'll be at 70. And you may eventually have to go higher, depending on longevity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 6 You got to means test it. And the only difference we have with the Democrats on the means testing well, on all of it. If they would agree to any reform they just want to tax rich people in the beginning. So there's a limit. Your Social Security taxes go up to about 160,000 and they're indexed to kind of keep creeping up a little bit, which I can live with that. But if there's a choice whether rich people get less Social Security in the end or we tax them up to $10 million, I'd rather do it in the end because somebody making $10 million is investing and creating a lot of jobs. And I'd rather not stop that. But I don't care if rich people have, including me, and I'm not that rich, but I'm upper middle class and I would get less Social Security also. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 .
• Trade is generally mutually beneficial; “we got richer and so did they,” challenging “we were ripped off” narratives 3 But a million people went in and made a voluntary trade where when they left their 600 bucks, they wanted less than the TV and Walmart wanted their $600. Every voluntary trade ever made in humanity, every second of the day is all mutually beneficial or it doesn't occur. It's not even an equal trade. It's mutually beneficial. We both think we got it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 16 And I think that is the truth of the matter. Since 1975 on, we've had a trade deficit every year and we got richer and so did they. Are there problems and dislocations in industry? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 .
• COVID origins & biosecurity: alleges a public/private messaging split by officials, calls for independent, conflict‑free review of gain‑of‑function (including classified programs) 17 There's never been a more extraordinary coverup in the sense that these people were saying in public the opposite of what they were saying in private. So Freedom of Information became the tool that uncovered a lot of this, and thousands of people helped to get this done. But in private, Anthony Fauci saying, I'm 50, 50, whether this came from the lab or animals, in publicly saying you're a conspiracy theorist and you should be treated as crazy and that we should expunge you or we should expose you, we should bring you down. Him and Francis Collins are talking back and forth about bringing down Jay Bhattacharya and all of the others that were exposing this stuff. This is extraordinary. We have the proof. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 4 I think a compromise and a moderation of this. I don't want to ban it. I want to set up a presidential commission of scientists who are not currently employed by nih don't have grants that I can give them bigger grants if they agree with me. And I want them to evaluate this. But not only do they need to evaluate the civilian side of this, they need to evaluate the classified side. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 .
• Fed mechanics: notes large interest paid to banks (and some foreign banks) and warns the financial system operates on confidence (fractional reserve), amplifying crisis risk 12 Then they play the games with paying interest to keep it in the Fed, which I've got a bill to eliminate that right now. And that bill's co sponsored by Bernie Sanders. We paid 188 billion the Fed did in interest to banks, not to loan money. Most of it went to five banks in New York, the big five, but 40% of them went to foreign banks. So the Fed's buying our interest with fake money. The taxpayer still has to pay the interest back to the Fed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 11 And some of it can be fixed and some of it, we live on a house of cards because. And most people don't know this, and I don't want to scare your audience. Will this scare your audience If I tell too much? It's great. It's going to get clicks and views. Yeah. Okay, this is very scary. So you have $1,000 in your checking account and you go to the bank and you want all of it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 .

Recommendations & Resources

• Book: Steven Pinker’s Enlightenment Now; data tools: HumanProgress.org; Cato’s Steve Lincecombe’s work on long‑run income trends 9 His book Enlightenment now is an amazing book. But anyway, this chart is for all of human history. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 8 So if you look at household income and there's a good website that does this, humanprogress.org we'll look at this. Steve Lincecome at Cato is great on this. Look at household income for the last 70 or 80 years and you look at what percentage is middle class, what are lower class and what is upper class? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 7 Steve Lincecome at Cato is great on this. Look at household income for the last 70 or 80 years and you look at what percentage is middle class, what are lower class and what is upper class? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 .
• Policy: reform emergency‑powers (sunset unless affirmed); create an independent commission to review gain‑of‑function research (civilian and classified) 5 So, for example, when Biden was in power, there were two dozen Republicans and I was one of them who had a reform of the emergency power. That said, when a president declares an emergency, it expires in 30 days unless affirmed. Right now it's the opposite. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 4 I think a compromise and a moderation of this. I don't want to ban it. I want to set up a presidential commission of scientists who are not currently employed by nih don't have grants that I can give them bigger grants if they agree with me. And I want them to evaluate this. But not only do they need to evaluate the civilian side of this, they need to evaluate the classified side. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 .

Notable Quotes

“Every voluntary trade ever made in humanity… is mutually beneficial or it doesn’t occur.” 3 But a million people went in and made a voluntary trade where when they left their 600 bucks, they wanted less than the TV and Walmart wanted their $600. Every voluntary trade ever made in humanity, every second of the day is all mutually beneficial or it doesn't occur. It's not even an equal trade. It's mutually beneficial. We both think we got it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8

“I like to say that I’m part of the Leave Me Alone coalition… really, I’m part of the Leave Me the Hell Alone coalition.” 2 All of those things are true to a certain extent. I like to say that I'm part of the Leave Me Alone coalition. And then sometimes I'll say, you know, really, I'm part of the Leave Me the Hell Alone coalition. And that means in all sorts of aspects. Personal, private, my contracts, my business, what I do, my family, the. Just leave me alone. And that encompasses a bigger group than just conservatives, a bigger group than just libertarians. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8

“There’s never been a more extraordinary coverup… [they said] in public the opposite of what they were saying in private.” 17 There's never been a more extraordinary coverup in the sense that these people were saying in public the opposite of what they were saying in private. So Freedom of Information became the tool that uncovered a lot of this, and thousands of people helped to get this done. But in private, Anthony Fauci saying, I'm 50, 50, whether this came from the lab or animals, in publicly saying you're a conspiracy theorist and you should be treated as crazy and that we should expunge you or we should expose you, we should bring you down. Him and Francis Collins are talking back and forth about bringing down Jay Bhattacharya and all of the others that were exposing this stuff. This is extraordinary. We have the proof. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8

Must‑Listen Clip

• The “house of cards” explainer: how fractional reserve and confidence interact with rising interest costs and Fed policy.
  • What you’ll learn: A concise risk map of how debt, banking mechanics, and policy shocks can cascade 10 But they have a game. I have a racket, it's called fractional reserve system. And it works until it doesn't work. And once a bunch of people go crazy, a bank run. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 12 Then they play the games with paying interest to keep it in the Fed, which I've got a bill to eliminate that right now. And that bill's co sponsored by Bernie Sanders. We paid 188 billion the Fed did in interest to banks, not to loan money. Most of it went to five banks in New York, the big five, but 40% of them went to foreign banks. So the Fed's buying our interest with fake money. The taxpayer still has to pay the interest back to the Fed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0F969v8-8 .

Markets & Tech Strategy

Episode Overview

• Show: All-In Podcast — “Why Are So Many Companies Going Bankrupt in 2025?”
• Summary: The crew unpacks why 2025 bankruptcies are on track for the highest since 2010, pointing to the end of ZIRP-era oxygen, retail’s lease leverage, and a looming CRE refinancing wall. They frame the cleanup as painful but ultimately healthy, with M&A-ready “creative destruction” finally unblocked 84 All right, let's talk about corporate bankruptcies. According to N S and P Global Report, so far in 2025, we've seen the most corporate bankruptcy filings since 2010. That was after the great financial crisis you remember, or some of you might have been too young. So corporate bankruptcies, according to the S and P, are public companies with debt of at least 2 million and private companies with assets or liabilities of at least 10 million. I'm not sure why the public companies is less than the private. That didn't make sense to me, but there must be a reason. These are also called large bankruptcies. Here's a chart showing you corporate bankruptcies since 2008. The Blue Bar is through July, gray bar is the full year. So we're looking at a partial year here. Obviously in 2025, we're at 446 large bankruptcies seven months into 2025, which would put us on track for the most since 2010. And yeah, nothing close to GFC numbers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg 83 The first reason is that you had rates artificially suppressed at zero for an incredibly long amount of time. And so you had all kinds of companies able to raise enormous, enormous amounts of capital that they probably shouldn't have been able to, or at a minimum should have done it. Much higher rates, which weren't really there because the core rate was at zero. So what that means is that many companies were able to Fill the reservoir of money. And then when the core structural business started to fail, they had a lot more oxygen in the tank to survive a lot longer. So I think a lot of what you're seeing, and if you look, Jason, at some of these companies, like Joanne's Fabrics and Party City, these were businesses that were upside down for years. Yep. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg 82 So I think the reason why bankruptcies are up right now is because the reservoir of free money, the money printer that printed, frankly, since 2010, up until about 2021, because we still gave an enormous amount of money in Covid, is finally starting to run out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg 81 Yeah, well the retail channel, like others is highly levered because in order to have a retail store you have to pay a monthly fee to the physical real estate owner. And so it's unlike other businesses that are services or are more nimble and can relocate you. Actually it's the equivalent of having debt. When you sign a lease, you're stuck in a 10 year debt cycle. You have to pay every month a fixed amount of money and you can't get out of it. So the retailers make a lot of sense. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg 80 I remember on this program a year and a half ago we talked about the wall of debt on commercial real estate that was coming due and had to be refinanced. And there's 2.2 trillion of debt, CRE debt that's maturing before 2028. And what we talked about back then was the banks don't really want to foreclose on these buildings because then it hits their balance sheet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg 73 And I think when you relax those constraints, what you can start to see are companies identify assets that they want inside of other businesses, be much more aggressive in getting them. Businesses that are floundering, being able to see that they're about to run out of money and have the confidence to try to do an M and A deal to survive. You need all of these things to work in lockstep for a market to be efficient. The market was incredibly inefficient since 2010. Artificially suppressed rates, a regulatory regime that disallowed any form of MA and consolidation. Now that those constraints are lifted, you're going to see a lot of this creative destruction work its way through the economy. That's one big trend. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg .

Key Insights

• Cheap money masked weak businesses; as the “reservoir of free money” dries up, bankruptcies are normalizing 78 So I just started to look into this and a couple of interesting things to note that I the conclusions that I came to, I think the most interesting is that there were a lot fewer bankruptcies over the last four or five years than there should have been. And I think that there are two reasons. The first reason is that you had rates artificially suppressed at zero for an incredibly long amount of time. And so you had all kinds of companies able to raise enormous, enormous amounts of capital that they probably shouldn't have been able to, or at a minimum should have done it. Much higher rates, which weren't really there because the core rate was at zero. So what that means is that many companies were able to Fill the reservoir of money. And then when the core structural business started to fail, they had a lot more oxygen in the tank to survive a lot longer. So I think a lot of what you're seeing, and if you look, Jason, at some of these companies, like Joanne's Fabrics and Party City, these were businesses that were upside down for years. Yep. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg 82 So I think the reason why bankruptcies are up right now is because the reservoir of free money, the money printer that printed, frankly, since 2010, up until about 2021, because we still gave an enormous amount of money in Covid, is finally starting to run out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg .
• Physical retail is structurally levered via long leases — a “10‑year debt cycle” that amplifies rate and demand shocks 81 Yeah, well the retail channel, like others is highly levered because in order to have a retail store you have to pay a monthly fee to the physical real estate owner. And so it's unlike other businesses that are services or are more nimble and can relocate you. Actually it's the equivalent of having debt. When you sign a lease, you're stuck in a 10 year debt cycle. You have to pay every month a fixed amount of money and you can't get out of it. So the retailers make a lot of sense. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg 75 Actually it's the equivalent of having debt. When you sign a lease, you're stuck in a 10 year debt cycle. You have to pay every month a fixed amount of money and you can't get out of it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg .
• CRE’s refinancing wall (~$2.2T before 2028) + higher rates + lower LTVs = negative cash flow and deed-backs to banks; expect auctions to reset values and re‑tenant buildings 80 I remember on this program a year and a half ago we talked about the wall of debt on commercial real estate that was coming due and had to be refinanced. And there's 2.2 trillion of debt, CRE debt that's maturing before 2028. And what we talked about back then was the banks don't really want to foreclose on these buildings because then it hits their balance sheet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg 79 Now, the reason for that is that the debt is coming due and it has to be refinanced. And there's two problems when you refinance. One is you're paying a higher interest rate. So now you take a building that was cash flowing and now at that higher interest rate, it might have negative cash flow. In other words, it's, it's basically bankrupt. So those buildings don't make sense anymore. And those are situations where you're going to lose the building to the bank. The other problem is when you refinance, you might not be able to get the loan to value that you had before because valuations have also come down because real estate valuations are inverse to interest rates. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg 74 But what needs to happen is those buildings effectively need to go back to the bank and then they need to be auctioned off at some lower price so that new equity holders can come in and new capitals can be formed and then you can get the money you need to do the tenant improvements, the TI's, so that you can get more tenants in there. Because right now, one of the reasons why a lot of these buildings are empty is because the equity holders don't have an incentive to put in more money to do the ti's necessary to sign new tenants. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg .
• Beware simplistic narratives (e.g., tariffs) for a complex, long-running capital cycle shift 76 Yeah, it's notable, but I think it's notable not for the reasons that the mainstream media tries to describe it in. I read these articles and I was a little bit caught off guard because initially what it said was the tariffs were causing this. And I was like, large companies don't go bankrupt 30, 60 days. Yeah, because of the tariffs. This makes no sense, but the narrative was very strong, basically trying to paint the Trump administration as having caused this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg .

Recommendations & Resources

• Track loan maturities and refi windows on CRE exposures; stress test at today’s rates and lower LTVs 80 I remember on this program a year and a half ago we talked about the wall of debt on commercial real estate that was coming due and had to be refinanced. And there's 2.2 trillion of debt, CRE debt that's maturing before 2028. And what we talked about back then was the banks don't really want to foreclose on these buildings because then it hits their balance sheet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg 79 Now, the reason for that is that the debt is coming due and it has to be refinanced. And there's two problems when you refinance. One is you're paying a higher interest rate. So now you take a building that was cash flowing and now at that higher interest rate, it might have negative cash flow. In other words, it's, it's basically bankrupt. So those buildings don't make sense anymore. And those are situations where you're going to lose the building to the bank. The other problem is when you refinance, you might not be able to get the loan to value that you had before because valuations have also come down because real estate valuations are inverse to interest rates. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg .
• Look for asset-level M&A/distressed deals as consolidation constraints loosen 73 And I think when you relax those constraints, what you can start to see are companies identify assets that they want inside of other businesses, be much more aggressive in getting them. Businesses that are floundering, being able to see that they're about to run out of money and have the confidence to try to do an M and A deal to survive. You need all of these things to work in lockstep for a market to be efficient. The market was incredibly inefficient since 2010. Artificially suppressed rates, a regulatory regime that disallowed any form of MA and consolidation. Now that those constraints are lifted, you're going to see a lot of this creative destruction work its way through the economy. That's one big trend. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg .

Notable Quotes

“So if you put these two things together, I think you’re going to see more, not less, bankruptcies… but the outcome is probably positive in that you clean out a bunch of businesses that were taking up time and resources.” 77 So if you put these two things together, I think you're going to see more, not less, bankruptcies. But I think the outcome is probably positive in that you clean out a bunch of businesses that were taking up time and resources. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnLTRSOJrUg

Actually it's the equivalent of having debt. When you sign a lease, you're stuck in a 10 year debt cycle. You have to pay every month a fixed amount of money and you can't get out of it.

Must‑Listen Clip

Chamath’s 2–5 minute diagnosis of the cycle shift and why “creative destruction” is back — what it means for bankruptcies, CRE, and M&A.

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Episode Overview

• Show: a16z — “Is Non‑Consensus Investing Overrated?”
• Summary: Martin and Leo debate whether early markets are more efficient than VCs think, why “hot” rounds can still be rational, and how companies fail more from “indigestion” (too much easy capital) than “starvation.” The throughline: stop hunting price arbitrage; find productive assets and design milestone‑driven follow‑ons 58 And I think the underlying, the last thing I'll say on this, I think that my underlying belief is early markets are actually pretty darn efficient, a lot more efficient than people realize. And so if you're alone in your view, you may just be missing something. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY 51 If the market's efficient and it's a good company, the price is going to be high and if you don't recognize that, then you're probably beating yourself as opposed to the market. Right. And so like it really comes down to don't. You shouldn't be looking for good deals with respect to other investors. You should be looking for good companies and price shouldn't sway you from that. I mean that's really at the heart of this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY 50 Most companies fail from indigestion, not starvation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY 46 I'd say it's often the latter, I would say, and especially true these days because I'm investing more in deep tech companies. And so at Seed, it's very rare to see like, oh, there's an asset that's going to be working here at the Series A, because usually the asset's still going to be like being developed at the Series A or maybe Series B. I think what I'm looking for is like there's maybe not enough here for somebody to write a 5 or 10 or $20 million check, but the company has milestones that I think if they hit them then it would become, you know, sort of consensus enough to merit a check of that size. And then I'm basically trying to evaluate like, okay, the company has these milestones. Do I think they could hit them or not? And also if they hit them, are they compelling enough? But I think that's sort of the big, you know, investment wager. Yeah, yeah. So I mean, so in this case you do think about like what the follow on thing is going to want to see. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY .

Key Insights

• Early markets may be “pretty darn efficient”; hot deals can reflect genuine value, not only bandwagons 58 And I think the underlying, the last thing I'll say on this, I think that my underlying belief is early markets are actually pretty darn efficient, a lot more efficient than people realize. And so if you're alone in your view, you may just be missing something. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY 47 So that's kind of this productive asset view and that's kind of the one that I hold, which I think that actually investors are very smart. I think that they know which companies are good and then they pay for those. That's kind of my view. But it's a productive asset view. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY .
• Indigestion > starvation: too‑easy capital often degrades customer focus and operating discipline 49 I think this is a tremendously important and good point. I tend to believe now that most companies fail from indigestion, not starvation, which is they just raise too much money too easily. They don't listen to the actual market, which is the customer base, and as a result they just have a bunch of bad practices and end up running out of money. And I think that there's a lot to that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY .
• For seed in deep tech, underwrite the next round’s milestones; predicting a $50–$100M A is a different, harder bet than a $10M follow‑on 45 And I would say the consensus piece is part of it in that I definitely meet companies where they're like, we're raising three right now, It'll help us do these milestones and then we think we can raise 10. And then there's other ones where it's like we're raising three now, we're going to hit these milestones and then we want to raise like a 50 to $100 million Series A. And that's actually a much harder bet. Right. Because you're saying you have to assume they're going to be consensus by the time they raise the next round. And it's going to be like a top 5% series A. And that's a hard bet to take for the companies where the capital needs are more modest or they have like a more tranched roadmap planned. I think it's a little bit easier to predict like, hey, would these milestones be enough to raise 10 a lot of times I don't know if it'll be enough to raise 100. Like probably not. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY 44 And then there's other ones where it's like we're raising three now, we're going to hit these milestones and then we want to raise like a 50 to $100 million Series A. And that's actually a much harder bet. Right. Because you're saying you have to assume they're going to be consensus by the time they raise the next round. And it's going to be like a top 5% series A. And that's a hard bet to take for the companies where the capital needs are more modest or they have like a more tranched roadmap planned. I think it's a little bit easier to predict like, hey, would these milestones be enough to raise 10 a lot of times I don't know if it'll be enough to raise 100. Like probably not. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY .
• Many “non‑consensus” winners still raised at high prices — being in the winner can dominate entry price 52 And, and, and on the face of it, that would argue for an order of magnitude higher fund size. If you want to play the strategy of being in the winner, I mean there's clearly multiple strategies, but if you want to. Again, I don't know the, for me, the key question, I don't know the answer, I want to run the numbers is if you take a dollar of earnings, like a dollar of earnings for a venture capitalist, did that come from a company that raised at high prices or not? And I would guess the answer is yes. Just because the winners are so outsized. I mean I will say there's like multiple ways to play it right, which is if the outcomes are 10x bigger, you can have a 10x bigger fund and basically run the same playbook, keep the same ownership and a big outcome still returns the same amount of the fundamental. You can also do like more investments at like you know, a fraction of the ownership and then each investment maybe moves the needle less, but you have a higher chance of hitting like, you know, this pipe of the year, the Uber of the year. Totally. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY .

Recommendations & Resources

• Pre‑mortem your follow‑on story: what does the next checkwriter need to see? Build trancheable roadmaps around that 46 I'd say it's often the latter, I would say, and especially true these days because I'm investing more in deep tech companies. And so at Seed, it's very rare to see like, oh, there's an asset that's going to be working here at the Series A, because usually the asset's still going to be like being developed at the Series A or maybe Series B. I think what I'm looking for is like there's maybe not enough here for somebody to write a 5 or 10 or $20 million check, but the company has milestones that I think if they hit them then it would become, you know, sort of consensus enough to merit a check of that size. And then I'm basically trying to evaluate like, okay, the company has these milestones. Do I think they could hit them or not? And also if they hit them, are they compelling enough? But I think that's sort of the big, you know, investment wager. Yeah, yeah. So I mean, so in this case you do think about like what the follow on thing is going to want to see. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY 45 And I would say the consensus piece is part of it in that I definitely meet companies where they're like, we're raising three right now, It'll help us do these milestones and then we think we can raise 10. And then there's other ones where it's like we're raising three now, we're going to hit these milestones and then we want to raise like a 50 to $100 million Series A. And that's actually a much harder bet. Right. Because you're saying you have to assume they're going to be consensus by the time they raise the next round. And it's going to be like a top 5% series A. And that's a hard bet to take for the companies where the capital needs are more modest or they have like a more tranched roadmap planned. I think it's a little bit easier to predict like, hey, would these milestones be enough to raise 10 a lot of times I don't know if it'll be enough to raise 100. Like probably not. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY .
• Don’t pass solely on price when quality is clear; prioritize getting into the best companies 51 If the market's efficient and it's a good company, the price is going to be high and if you don't recognize that, then you're probably beating yourself as opposed to the market. Right. And so like it really comes down to don't. You shouldn't be looking for good deals with respect to other investors. You should be looking for good companies and price shouldn't sway you from that. I mean that's really at the heart of this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY .

Notable Quotes

“Most companies fail from indigestion, not starvation.” 50 Most companies fail from indigestion, not starvation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY

“You should not look for price arbitrage if you’re looking for returns.” 48 You should not look for price arbitrage if you're looking for returns. Does that sound fair? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roJUhk8qeRY

Must‑Listen Clip

How they’ll “run the numbers” to test if returns concentrate in higher‑priced winners — turning anecdote into analysis.

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Episode Overview

• Shows: ThePrimeTime & Theo (t3.gg) — Atlassian acquires The Browser Company (Arc)
• Summary: Atlassian is buying Arc for $610M all‑cash to “reimagine the browser for knowledge work in the AI era,” aiming at a browser-as-workbench where most tabs are SaaS/docs and workflows can be surfaced by AI. The bet: fix the layer above Jira to keep enterprise spend even if Jira UX remains painful 56 Today I want to tell you about a bold new chapter for Atlassian. We've entered into an agreement to acquire the browser company of New York, the team behind the incredible Arc and Dear. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN3aW1Q2aho 55 Let's just take a quick look at what the browser company released because they said today the browser company of New York is entering into an agreement to be acquired by Atlassian for 610 million in an all cash transaction. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN3aW1Q2aho 54 Together we're going to reimagine the browser for knowledge work in the AI era. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN3aW1Q2aho 53 Overwhelmingly, These tabs are SaaS, applications and documents. Because knowledge workers don't just use their browser to browse, they use their browser to work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN3aW1Q2aho 25 And to top it all off, Atlassian's CEO seems to think about browsers far too much and on a deeper level than most do. That's probably why he invested in a browser company when everything else he invested in is like compliance and developer tooling. And it's also why this acquisition makes sense for him. I was secretly closely holding some hope that he was a power user and big fan of Ark and that part of this was a baller move to try and save ARK from near certain death, I don't think it's that. I think he's just a nerd about browsers. He knows that Jira is absolutely fucked if they don't have better ways to use it, and most importantly, that making Jira better isn't possible. So instead of pretending they can make Jira better, or that they can buy a Jira alternative and not fuck it up like they did with Trello, they're going to go a layer higher so that Jira sucking doesn't matter as much. It's almost like a hedge bet where they can try to make Jira better, they can try buying alternatives, but if everything else fails, at least they have this option that lets people keep paying for their Jira subs without ever actually touching Jira. It's a hedge. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45fbNFMd_vc .

Key Insights

• Deal rationale: Atlassian wants the browser layer to orchestrate knowledge‑work — not just surfing, but working 54 Together we're going to reimagine the browser for knowledge work in the AI era. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN3aW1Q2aho 53 Overwhelmingly, These tabs are SaaS, applications and documents. Because knowledge workers don't just use their browser to browse, they use their browser to work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN3aW1Q2aho .
• Strategic hedge: rather than “fix Jira,” make a browser that reduces Jira pain while keeping customers in the Atlassian stack 25 And to top it all off, Atlassian's CEO seems to think about browsers far too much and on a deeper level than most do. That's probably why he invested in a browser company when everything else he invested in is like compliance and developer tooling. And it's also why this acquisition makes sense for him. I was secretly closely holding some hope that he was a power user and big fan of Ark and that part of this was a baller move to try and save ARK from near certain death, I don't think it's that. I think he's just a nerd about browsers. He knows that Jira is absolutely fucked if they don't have better ways to use it, and most importantly, that making Jira better isn't possible. So instead of pretending they can make Jira better, or that they can buy a Jira alternative and not fuck it up like they did with Trello, they're going to go a layer higher so that Jira sucking doesn't matter as much. It's almost like a hedge bet where they can try to make Jira better, they can try buying alternatives, but if everything else fails, at least they have this option that lets people keep paying for their Jira subs without ever actually touching Jira. It's a hedge. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45fbNFMd_vc .
• Power users (Jira/CS/Safety) are extreme browser athletes; the right UI primitives and stability can unlock huge productivity 23 There is no more powerful browser user than a JIRA power user. This might sound like the most insane thing I've said. In many ways it is. But hear me out. One of those important journeys I had in my history doing software development was the time I spent working on the internal safety tooling at Twitch. When you report someone on Twitch or report a piece of content that gets sent to a platform that I helped build, where admins, actual humans, comb through it and make decisions around those reports. That system was used by about 30 people at the time I was building it, and I've never gotten more detailed feedback about the thing I was building than I did with that small team. I was getting DMs every single day. About every little change we made, what worked, what didn't, and how we could make the experience of them doing their jobs better for them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45fbNFMd_vc .

Recommendations & Resources

• Expect near‑term enterprise priorities: Windows support, security, telemetry‑driven models — now “accelerated” post‑deal 24 The things are Windows Support, Enterprise Security, which we're already on the roadmap. They're accelerated now. And building custom models with their telemetry data. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45fbNFMd_vc .

Notable Quotes

“Together we’re going to reimagine the browser for knowledge work in the AI era.” 54 Together we're going to reimagine the browser for knowledge work in the AI era. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN3aW1Q2aho

Must‑Listen Clip

Atlassian’s own articulation of the problem (tabs = SaaS/docs) and the opportunity.

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Episode Overview

• Show: Theo (t3.gg) — “BREAKING: Anthropic announces massive investment (50% of OpenAI???)”
• Summary: Anthropic raises $13B at $183B post (~7% dilution), a deliberate low‑dilution move to fund training while moats shift to GPUs + power. Training budgets look sovereign, reliability still lags (~“two nines”), and multi‑host Claude deployments are table stakes 40 We've raised $13 billion at 183 billion post money valuation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqDb0feu7iA 38 So let's start first and foremost with this really big number, 183 billion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqDb0feu7iA 36 So that's 13 divided by 183 equals about 7% of the company, or 13 billion. That is really, really good and really low dilution. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqDb0feu7iA 32 It's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the world, but if you can't get 100,000 H1 hundreds in a dedicated power plant, you're out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqDb0feu7iA 35 Crazy that their downtime is still as bad as it is considering how much money they have. They got at best two nines of reliability. It's time to fix it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqDb0feu7iA 29 It's basically a known fact that if you want to use anthropic models and you want them to be reliable, you should be using them on multiple hosts and not just anthropic's APIs. Thankfully, you can use Claude models on things like Google Vertex on GCP as well. As bedrock on aws. So you have options to diversify where your Claude hosting is to keep their much less stable platform from holding you back. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqDb0feu7iA .

Key Insights

• The new moat: who controls compute + power (TSMC + utilities = kingmakers) 32 It's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the world, but if you can't get 100,000 H1 hundreds in a dedicated power plant, you're out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqDb0feu7iA .
• Costs are going parabolic: GPT‑4 ≈ ~$100M to train; GPT‑5/Opus‑class ≈ $1B+; future gens may need sovereign‑scale funding 31 GPT4 training was what, 100 million? GPT5 and Opus4 class are probably 1 billion plus in training. At this rate, GPT7 will need its own sovereign wealth fund. Actually though, it's pretty hilarious how expensive this has gotten and how much you need the money to do it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqDb0feu7iA .
• Reliability gap: platform often ~two nines; diversify Claude hosting across Vertex/Bedrock to mitigate outages 35 Crazy that their downtime is still as bad as it is considering how much money they have. They got at best two nines of reliability. It's time to fix it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqDb0feu7iA 29 It's basically a known fact that if you want to use anthropic models and you want them to be reliable, you should be using them on multiple hosts and not just anthropic's APIs. Thankfully, you can use Claude models on things like Google Vertex on GCP as well. As bedrock on aws. So you have options to diversify where your Claude hosting is to keep their much less stable platform from holding you back. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqDb0feu7iA .

Recommendations & Resources

• Design for multi‑cloud LLM hosting (Claude on Vertex/AWS Bedrock) and instrument for monitoring/regression catches 29 It's basically a known fact that if you want to use anthropic models and you want them to be reliable, you should be using them on multiple hosts and not just anthropic's APIs. Thankfully, you can use Claude models on things like Google Vertex on GCP as well. As bedrock on aws. So you have options to diversify where your Claude hosting is to keep their much less stable platform from holding you back. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqDb0feu7iA 27 Oh, and man, don't get me started on the fact that Opus 4.1 was on some broken mode and was parameterized for like six days straight so the model just wasn't behaving for almost a week and nobody noticed until someone had a viral tweet and got a bunch of shit for it and turned out they were right. Oh, they needed GPUs badly. They also need better monitoring and they need a lot of other little things, but regardless, they have the money. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqDb0feu7iA .

Notable Quotes

“We’re basically at the point where you need a small country’s GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models.” 28 Thank you Llama Sushi the compute mode is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqDb0feu7iA

“It’s literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure.” 32 It's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the world, but if you can't get 100,000 H1 hundreds in a dedicated power plant, you're out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqDb0feu7iA

Must‑Listen Clip

The math behind $13B on $183B and why dilution stayed under ~10% — a masterclass in money/valuation/dilution tradeoffs.

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Behavior & Mindset

Episode Overview

• Show: Huberman Lab Essentials — Dr. Alia Crum on the science of mindsets
• Summary: Mindsets aren’t fluff — they reshape physiology. Believing food is indulgent reduces hunger hormone; seeing your work as exercise improves blood pressure; reframing stress (acknowledge, welcome, utilize) lowers symptoms and boosts performance 65 Just to start off, you know, you've talked a lot and worked a lot on the science of mindsets. Could you define for us what is a mindset and what sort of purpose does it serve? We define mindsets as core beliefs or assumptions that we have about a domain or category of things that orient us to a particular set of expectations, explanations and goals. I can distill it down for you. So mindsets are an assumption that you make about a domain. So take stress, for example, the nature of stress. What. What's your sort of core belief about that? Do you view stress as enhancing, good for you, or do you view it as debilitating and bad for you? Those mindsets, those core beliefs, orient our thinking. They change what we expect will happen to us when we're stressed, how we explain the occurrences that happen or unfold when we're stressed, and also change our motivation for what we engage in when we're stressed, sort of distilling down those core assumptions that really shape and orient our thinking and action. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alVWRl_X_AA 64 To test this question, we ran a seemingly simple study. This was done at the Yale center for Clinical and Translational Research. And we brought people into our lab under the impression that we were designing different milkshakes with vastly different metabolic concentrations, nutrient concentrations that were designed to meet different metabolic needs of the patrons of the hospital. You're going to come in, you're going to taste these milkshakes, and we're going to measure your body's physiological response to them. This was a within subjects design. It was the same people consuming two different milkshakes, two different time points separated by a week. And at one time point, they were told that they were consuming this really high fat, high caloric, indulgent milkshake. It was like 620 calorie, super high fat and sugar. The other time point, they were told that it was a low fat, low calorie, sensible sort of diet shake. In reality, it was the exact same shake. It was right in the middle. It was like 300 calories, moderate amount of fats and sugars. And we were measuring their body's gut peptide response to this shake. And in particular, we are looking at the hormone ghrelin. Medical experts call it the hunger hormone, rises in ghrelin, signal, seek out food, and then theoretically, in proportion to the amount of calories you consume, ghrelin levels drop, signaling to the brain, okay, you don't need to eat so much anymore, you can stop eating. And also revving up the metabolism to burn the nutrients that were just ingested. What we found in this study was that when people thought they were consuming the high fat, high calorie, indulgent milkshake, their ghrelin levels dropped at a threefold rate, stronger than when they thought they were consuming the sensible shake. So essentially, their bodies responded as if they had consumed more food, even though it was the exact same shake at both time points. It was, to my knowledge, one of the first studies to show any effects of just believing that you're eating something different, different on your physiology. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alVWRl_X_AA 60 So what we did was we took these women and we randomized them into two groups, and we told half of them that their work was good exercise. In this case, it was true factual information. We oriented them to the Surgeon General's guidelines. We oriented them to the benefits that they should be receiving. And then we had measured them previously on their physiological metrics like weight and body fat and blood pressure. And we came back four weeks later and we tested them again. And what we found was that these women, even though they hadn't changed anything in their behavior, they had benefits to their health. So they lost weight. They decreased their systolic blood pressure by about 10 points on average. What this reveals is that we have to be more thorough, thoughtful in how we go about motivating people to exercise or teaching people about the benefits. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alVWRl_X_AA 63 And in our first test of this, we decided to do so by creating these multimedia films that showcased research anecdotes, facts about stress, all true, but oriented towards one mindset or the other. Right. So you can imagine one set of films showed basically the messages that were out there in the public health context. The other showed, hey, you know, stress is, you know, stress has been linked to these things. But in fact, the body stress response was designed to do this. Did you know it could do that? And we had empowering images like LeBron James making the free throw in the final minute versus missing it. So either people saw a video that basically made it seem like stress will diminish you, crush you, reduce you, or a video very similar, stress will grow you, bring out your best, and maybe even take you to heightened levels of performance that you've never experienced before. Exactly. And our question was, does orienting people to different mindsets change how they respond to stress? So this study was done in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. We worked with UBS, a company financial service, a company that was undergoing pretty massive amounts of layoffs. So these employees were stressed about being laid off. They were taking on more pressure. It was just a tough time. We randomized them into three conditions and this was all pre work before getting a training on stress. But the three different conditions, some watched no videos, some watched the stress will crush you videos, and some watched the stress could enhance you videos. And what we found was that just, you know, it was a total of 9 minutes of videos over the course of the week led to changes in their mindsets about stress, which led to changes in their physiological symptoms associated with stress. So people who watched the enhancing films had fewer backaches, muscle tension, insomnia, racing heart, and so forth. And they also reported performing better at work compared to those who watched the debilitating videos. Now, interestingly, we didn't make anyone worse with the debilitating videos, which was good. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alVWRl_X_AA 62 We've developed a three step approach to adopting a stresses enhancing mindset. And briefly, it's the first step is to just acknowledge that you're stressed. The second step is to welcome it, because inherently in that stress is something you care about. And then the third step is to utilize the stress response to achieve the thing you care about. Not spend your time, money, effort, energy, trying to get rid of the stress. Does that make sense? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alVWRl_X_AA .

Key Insights

• Belief → biology: identical shakes labeled “indulgent” vs “sensible” produce different ghrelin responses (satiety) 64 To test this question, we ran a seemingly simple study. This was done at the Yale center for Clinical and Translational Research. And we brought people into our lab under the impression that we were designing different milkshakes with vastly different metabolic concentrations, nutrient concentrations that were designed to meet different metabolic needs of the patrons of the hospital. You're going to come in, you're going to taste these milkshakes, and we're going to measure your body's physiological response to them. This was a within subjects design. It was the same people consuming two different milkshakes, two different time points separated by a week. And at one time point, they were told that they were consuming this really high fat, high caloric, indulgent milkshake. It was like 620 calorie, super high fat and sugar. The other time point, they were told that it was a low fat, low calorie, sensible sort of diet shake. In reality, it was the exact same shake. It was right in the middle. It was like 300 calories, moderate amount of fats and sugars. And we were measuring their body's gut peptide response to this shake. And in particular, we are looking at the hormone ghrelin. Medical experts call it the hunger hormone, rises in ghrelin, signal, seek out food, and then theoretically, in proportion to the amount of calories you consume, ghrelin levels drop, signaling to the brain, okay, you don't need to eat so much anymore, you can stop eating. And also revving up the metabolism to burn the nutrients that were just ingested. What we found in this study was that when people thought they were consuming the high fat, high calorie, indulgent milkshake, their ghrelin levels dropped at a threefold rate, stronger than when they thought they were consuming the sensible shake. So essentially, their bodies responded as if they had consumed more food, even though it was the exact same shake at both time points. It was, to my knowledge, one of the first studies to show any effects of just believing that you're eating something different, different on your physiology. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alVWRl_X_AA 61 And that was the manner in which it affected our physiology was somewhat counterintuitive. So I had gone in thinking the better mindset to be in when you eat is that you're eating healthy, right? Like, you know, it just makes sense, like placebo effects, think you're healthy, you'll be healthy, you know. But that was a far too simplistic way of thinking about it. And in fact, it was the exact opposite. When these participants thought they were eating sensibly, their bodies left them still feeling physiologically hungry, right? Not satiated, which could potentially be corresponding to slower metabolism and so forth. So if you're in the interest of maintaining or losing weight, what's the best mindset to be in? It's to be in a mindset that you're eating indulgently, that you're having enough food, that you're getting enough. And at least in that study, we showed that has a more adaptive effect on ghrelin responses. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alVWRl_X_AA .
• Exercise mindset: housekeepers who learned their work “counts” lost weight and dropped systolic BP ~10 points without changing behavior 60 So what we did was we took these women and we randomized them into two groups, and we told half of them that their work was good exercise. In this case, it was true factual information. We oriented them to the Surgeon General's guidelines. We oriented them to the benefits that they should be receiving. And then we had measured them previously on their physiological metrics like weight and body fat and blood pressure. And we came back four weeks later and we tested them again. And what we found was that these women, even though they hadn't changed anything in their behavior, they had benefits to their health. So they lost weight. They decreased their systolic blood pressure by about 10 points on average. What this reveals is that we have to be more thorough, thoughtful in how we go about motivating people to exercise or teaching people about the benefits. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alVWRl_X_AA .
• Stress reframed: short mindset films cut backaches, insomnia, racing heart and improved work performance; use Acknowledge → Welcome → Utilize 63 And in our first test of this, we decided to do so by creating these multimedia films that showcased research anecdotes, facts about stress, all true, but oriented towards one mindset or the other. Right. So you can imagine one set of films showed basically the messages that were out there in the public health context. The other showed, hey, you know, stress is, you know, stress has been linked to these things. But in fact, the body stress response was designed to do this. Did you know it could do that? And we had empowering images like LeBron James making the free throw in the final minute versus missing it. So either people saw a video that basically made it seem like stress will diminish you, crush you, reduce you, or a video very similar, stress will grow you, bring out your best, and maybe even take you to heightened levels of performance that you've never experienced before. Exactly. And our question was, does orienting people to different mindsets change how they respond to stress? So this study was done in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. We worked with UBS, a company financial service, a company that was undergoing pretty massive amounts of layoffs. So these employees were stressed about being laid off. They were taking on more pressure. It was just a tough time. We randomized them into three conditions and this was all pre work before getting a training on stress. But the three different conditions, some watched no videos, some watched the stress will crush you videos, and some watched the stress could enhance you videos. And what we found was that just, you know, it was a total of 9 minutes of videos over the course of the week led to changes in their mindsets about stress, which led to changes in their physiological symptoms associated with stress. So people who watched the enhancing films had fewer backaches, muscle tension, insomnia, racing heart, and so forth. And they also reported performing better at work compared to those who watched the debilitating videos. Now, interestingly, we didn't make anyone worse with the debilitating videos, which was good. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alVWRl_X_AA 62 We've developed a three step approach to adopting a stresses enhancing mindset. And briefly, it's the first step is to just acknowledge that you're stressed. The second step is to welcome it, because inherently in that stress is something you care about. And then the third step is to utilize the stress response to achieve the thing you care about. Not spend your time, money, effort, energy, trying to get rid of the stress. Does that make sense? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alVWRl_X_AA .

Recommendations & Resources

• Toolkits: Stanford MBL + “Rethink Stress” at Stanford SPARQ 66 Yeah, all our papers and materials and interventions are housed on our website, MBL, stanford.edu. we also have a link there that takes you to Stanford Spark, which stands for Social Psychological Answers to Real World Questions. We have a lot of toolkits on that website, including a toolkit for this rethink stress approach of acknowledging, welcoming and utilizing your stress. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alVWRl_X_AA 57 we also have a link there that takes you to Stanford Spark, which stands for Social Psychological Answers to Real World Questions. We have a lot of toolkits on that website, including a toolkit for this rethink stress approach of acknowledging, welcoming and utilizing your stress. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alVWRl_X_AA .
• Daily practice: before meals, remind yourself you’re eating enough; during stress, run the three‑step protocol 62 We've developed a three step approach to adopting a stresses enhancing mindset. And briefly, it's the first step is to just acknowledge that you're stressed. The second step is to welcome it, because inherently in that stress is something you care about. And then the third step is to utilize the stress response to achieve the thing you care about. Not spend your time, money, effort, energy, trying to get rid of the stress. Does that make sense? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alVWRl_X_AA .

Notable Quotes

“The total effect of anything is a combined product of what you’re doing and what you think about what you’re doing.” 59 That the total effect of anything is a combined product of what you're doing and what you think about what you're doing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alVWRl_X_AA

Must‑Listen Clip

The milkshake study that flips “healthy = better” on its head — and how to use that in real life.

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Episode Overview

• Show: The Tim Ferriss Show — “100 Days Sober: The Hard Truth About Quitting Alcohol”
• Summary: “Kevin” lays out a pragmatic sobriety plan: data‑driven urgency (liver enzymes 5–7x), a clear milestone (100 days), the “win today” reframe, and a support hotline. He also warns against swapping addictions and recommends flowy, tactile hobbies (Nanoblocks) 90 I think that initially it was fear of death, which was largely driven by my doctor calling me up saying, your liver enzymes are like whatever it was 5x 7x what they should be. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU 71 100 days. Why is 100 days significant? What is the milestone? The milestone is no alcohol for 100 days. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU 69 And they gather around you and really give you kind of a toolkit to lean into. And for me, that has been really understanding that it's not about the three months, it's just about winning today. And so if you can reframe it as just not today. Yeah, I can have a drink tomorrow, but just not today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU 89 And having those friends and the first thing they did being some of them are one's still an AA and two are ex. AA is said. What we do here is we could just give you our numbers and you call anytime you're having a craving or you think you're getting close to not pulling this off because we want to see you succeed. And I think that's a powerful thing to be able to have a hotline to someone that is like, I've been here. It sucks. Yes, yes. You can get to two weeks, but do you want to white knuckle this the entire way by yourself, or do you want someone that's going to go have a tea with you and sit with you for an evening on a day that's particularly hard? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU 68 So this is called nanoblocks and it's one of the things I wanted to talk about today. All right. So nanoblocks are from Japan and I did a little research and essentially they were able to find a way around a lot of the Lego patents and they created. Look at how small this block is. Yeah, he's holding it up. If you listen to audio. Yeah. It's about the size of a baby aspirin. I mean, it's tiny. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU .

Key Insights

• Motivation sticks when it’s quantified and proximal: labs + a 100‑day commitment; expect the biggest benefits by ~3 months 90 I think that initially it was fear of death, which was largely driven by my doctor calling me up saying, your liver enzymes are like whatever it was 5x 7x what they should be. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU 71 100 days. Why is 100 days significant? What is the milestone? The milestone is no alcohol for 100 days. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU 70 And actually, my therapist told me this. She said, kevin, it's kind of a golf clap at one month. Three months is where the magic happens in terms of how you feel. Your energy, your mood, weight loss, glucose control, all of the things that you've said you want to have, but can you do it? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU .
• Keep the time horizon to “today” to de‑risk cravings; build a call‑tree of people who’ve been there 69 And they gather around you and really give you kind of a toolkit to lean into. And for me, that has been really understanding that it's not about the three months, it's just about winning today. And so if you can reframe it as just not today. Yeah, I can have a drink tomorrow, but just not today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU 89 And having those friends and the first thing they did being some of them are one's still an AA and two are ex. AA is said. What we do here is we could just give you our numbers and you call anytime you're having a craving or you think you're getting close to not pulling this off because we want to see you succeed. And I think that's a powerful thing to be able to have a hotline to someone that is like, I've been here. It sucks. Yes, yes. You can get to two weeks, but do you want to white knuckle this the entire way by yourself, or do you want someone that's going to go have a tea with you and sit with you for an evening on a day that's particularly hard? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU .
• Replace ritual, not just substance: pick at‑home, hands‑on hobbies to fill the gap 68 So this is called nanoblocks and it's one of the things I wanted to talk about today. All right. So nanoblocks are from Japan and I did a little research and essentially they were able to find a way around a lot of the Lego patents and they created. Look at how small this block is. Yeah, he's holding it up. If you listen to audio. Yeah. It's about the size of a baby aspirin. I mean, it's tiny. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU .

Recommendations & Resources

• Get labs; choose a date; write the first‑aid kit: “not today,” three people to call, one hobby ready 90 I think that initially it was fear of death, which was largely driven by my doctor calling me up saying, your liver enzymes are like whatever it was 5x 7x what they should be. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU 69 And they gather around you and really give you kind of a toolkit to lean into. And for me, that has been really understanding that it's not about the three months, it's just about winning today. And so if you can reframe it as just not today. Yeah, I can have a drink tomorrow, but just not today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU 89 And having those friends and the first thing they did being some of them are one's still an AA and two are ex. AA is said. What we do here is we could just give you our numbers and you call anytime you're having a craving or you think you're getting close to not pulling this off because we want to see you succeed. And I think that's a powerful thing to be able to have a hotline to someone that is like, I've been here. It sucks. Yes, yes. You can get to two weeks, but do you want to white knuckle this the entire way by yourself, or do you want someone that's going to go have a tea with you and sit with you for an evening on a day that's particularly hard? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU 68 So this is called nanoblocks and it's one of the things I wanted to talk about today. All right. So nanoblocks are from Japan and I did a little research and essentially they were able to find a way around a lot of the Lego patents and they created. Look at how small this block is. Yeah, he's holding it up. If you listen to audio. Yeah. It's about the size of a baby aspirin. I mean, it's tiny. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU .

Notable Quotes

“Not today, Satan.” 88 Not today, Satan. Not today, Satan. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU

“Three months is where the magic happens… energy, mood, weight, glucose control.” 70 And actually, my therapist told me this. She said, kevin, it's kind of a golf clap at one month. Three months is where the magic happens in terms of how you feel. Your energy, your mood, weight loss, glucose control, all of the things that you've said you want to have, but can you do it? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYxlUr1yUdU

Must‑Listen Clip

The therapist‑approved cadence (why 3 months), the “win today” loop, and the hotline play — stitched into a 2–5 minute sequence.

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Health & Performance

Episode Overview

• Show: The Peter Attia Drive — Stuart McGill, PhD, on the “Big Three” for back pain
• Summary: McGill’s spine‑sparing trio — modified curl‑up, side plank (10‑second “Russian pyramid”), and bird dog — builds proximal stiffness that both reduces pain and improves cutting speed. He argues “non‑specific low back pain” is a misnomer; assessment must drive programming and posture needs to be individualized 30 The three exercises that kept bubbling up to the top in the criteria of sparing the spine while you're doing them. Because these people are hurting, you don't have carte blanche to load up their spine. A guaranteed stability or proximal stiffness. And it was later in my career that we found there is a residual stiffness that occurs. So if you do the big three and you are an NFL football team, if you do the brig three prior to practice, you will run and cut just a little bit faster. So you're on the field, you run. And you cut the stiffer the core. When the hips explode into external rotation, you're now creating a faster directional change. So what were the muscles or what were the exercises? A modified curl up which remember now. I'm just going to start a little bit of an assessment. I'm going to take a patient, I'm going to have them sit on the stool and I say do you have symptoms right now? Humor me. And let's say you don't. Now I'm going to say drop your chest down does that concert? Oh, yeah. My left toe is going numb and I've got back pain. Good. Bring your chin down. And they might say that'll increase their pain or decrease it. But the point is that posture created their pain. If that is true, when they lay on their back and they imprinted their back into the floor doing a Pilates roll up, for example, that would be their specific pain trigger. So it's not much of a therapeutic exercise. But when you say, put your hands under your low back as you're laying on the ground, lift your elbows. Now hover up your head, neck and shoulders. And we're going to propel the abdominal contraction, breathe through her slips and allow the diaphragm to become the athlete inside this barrel. So that was the foundation of the modified curl up. Now, if the person has a rotator cuff issue or we will hack it and make it tolerable. Then I would see people, well, let's take a dumbbell or a kettlebell and we're going to raise it up laterally in the frontal plane like this for the side of the core. That would trigger pain in a lot of people. But I'll demonstrate all this if you want. But we could then do a side plank on the floor. The beauty of the side plank is only half the musculature is heavily challenged. The downside is heavily challenged. The upside is not you've only got half the load on the SP spine, very spine sparing. We prescribe it on 10 second intervals. Why? We use the Russian training science to show you build endurance through repeated 10 second exposures. Not getting tired to the point where you break form, nor do you develop a neural fatigue. And you get a much higher tolerable training level with this, what we call the Russian descending pyramid. And then for the back muscles, look. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2qppqLKEi0 41 We use the Russian training science to show you build endurance through repeated 10 second exposures. Not getting tired to the point where you break form, nor do you develop a neural fatigue. And you get a much higher tolerable training level with this, what we call the Russian descending pyramid. And then for the back muscles, look. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2qppqLKEi0 34 All right, so remind me, we're going to talk about non specific low back pain and how I think it's a myth and it doesn't exist. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2qppqLKEi0 42 I'm going to take a patient, I'm going to have them sit on the stool and I say do you have symptoms right now? Humor me. And let's say you don't. Now I'm going to say drop your chest down does that concert? Oh, yeah. My left toe is going numb and I've got back pain. Good. Bring your chin down. And they might say that'll increase their pain or decrease it. But the point is that posture created their pain. If that is true, when they lay on their back and they imprinted their back into the floor doing a Pilates roll up, for example, that would be their specific pain trigger. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2qppqLKEi0 .

Key Insights

• The Big Three create neural “residual stiffness” that lasts ~20–60 minutes; split 12‑minute sessions mid‑morning and mid‑afternoon 39 We would just have a single session exposure. We would measure the core stiffness prior to doing the big three. They do the big three on the Russian descending pyramid. And then we would remeasure their torso stiffness. Peter they were, they were stiffer. And some of my muscle physiology colleagues said, well, you've added a turbidness to the muscle. I don't think so. I think the brain created a lasting neural stiffness and in some people it lasts about 20 minutes, some people it lasts longer. So you will see some patients who say, you know, when I do the big three, I don't have pain for the next hour. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2qppqLKEi0 33 What you're going to do is mid morning do a 12 minute big three session, mid afternoon do a 12. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2qppqLKEi0 .
• Side planks on 10‑second intervals build endurance without form break or neural fatigue — borrow from Russian training science 41 We use the Russian training science to show you build endurance through repeated 10 second exposures. Not getting tired to the point where you break form, nor do you develop a neural fatigue. And you get a much higher tolerable training level with this, what we call the Russian descending pyramid. And then for the back muscles, look. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2qppqLKEi0 .
• Assessment first: the trigger posture tells you what not to do (e.g., Pilates roll‑up may provoke symptoms for flexion‑sensitive backs) 42 I'm going to take a patient, I'm going to have them sit on the stool and I say do you have symptoms right now? Humor me. And let's say you don't. Now I'm going to say drop your chest down does that concert? Oh, yeah. My left toe is going numb and I've got back pain. Good. Bring your chin down. And they might say that'll increase their pain or decrease it. But the point is that posture created their pain. If that is true, when they lay on their back and they imprinted their back into the floor doing a Pilates roll up, for example, that would be their specific pain trigger. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2qppqLKEi0 .

Recommendations & Resources

• Protocol: modified curl‑up → side plank (10s reps, descending pyramid) → bird dog; split across the day 30 The three exercises that kept bubbling up to the top in the criteria of sparing the spine while you're doing them. Because these people are hurting, you don't have carte blanche to load up their spine. A guaranteed stability or proximal stiffness. And it was later in my career that we found there is a residual stiffness that occurs. So if you do the big three and you are an NFL football team, if you do the brig three prior to practice, you will run and cut just a little bit faster. So you're on the field, you run. And you cut the stiffer the core. When the hips explode into external rotation, you're now creating a faster directional change. So what were the muscles or what were the exercises? A modified curl up which remember now. I'm just going to start a little bit of an assessment. I'm going to take a patient, I'm going to have them sit on the stool and I say do you have symptoms right now? Humor me. And let's say you don't. Now I'm going to say drop your chest down does that concert? Oh, yeah. My left toe is going numb and I've got back pain. Good. Bring your chin down. And they might say that'll increase their pain or decrease it. But the point is that posture created their pain. If that is true, when they lay on their back and they imprinted their back into the floor doing a Pilates roll up, for example, that would be their specific pain trigger. So it's not much of a therapeutic exercise. But when you say, put your hands under your low back as you're laying on the ground, lift your elbows. Now hover up your head, neck and shoulders. And we're going to propel the abdominal contraction, breathe through her slips and allow the diaphragm to become the athlete inside this barrel. So that was the foundation of the modified curl up. Now, if the person has a rotator cuff issue or we will hack it and make it tolerable. Then I would see people, well, let's take a dumbbell or a kettlebell and we're going to raise it up laterally in the frontal plane like this for the side of the core. That would trigger pain in a lot of people. But I'll demonstrate all this if you want. But we could then do a side plank on the floor. The beauty of the side plank is only half the musculature is heavily challenged. The downside is heavily challenged. The upside is not you've only got half the load on the SP spine, very spine sparing. We prescribe it on 10 second intervals. Why? We use the Russian training science to show you build endurance through repeated 10 second exposures. Not getting tired to the point where you break form, nor do you develop a neural fatigue. And you get a much higher tolerable training level with this, what we call the Russian descending pyramid. And then for the back muscles, look. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2qppqLKEi0 41 We use the Russian training science to show you build endurance through repeated 10 second exposures. Not getting tired to the point where you break form, nor do you develop a neural fatigue. And you get a much higher tolerable training level with this, what we call the Russian descending pyramid. And then for the back muscles, look. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2qppqLKEi0 .
• Not one‑size‑fits‑all: certain body architectures or shoulder issues need hacks/alternatives — customize accordingly 37 There are some people that are far too stiff and this is not the mechanism of their back pain. And we don't need to go there. Have you ever seen the type of body build where they have a huge pneumatic cushion in front called a belly, and it slaps on their thighs? It's that pendulous of this. Do you ever see spine instability in that type of architecture? I don't. Interesting. So probably those people have difficulty getting on and off the floor. The big three is not for them. So there might be. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2qppqLKEi0 30 The three exercises that kept bubbling up to the top in the criteria of sparing the spine while you're doing them. Because these people are hurting, you don't have carte blanche to load up their spine. A guaranteed stability or proximal stiffness. And it was later in my career that we found there is a residual stiffness that occurs. So if you do the big three and you are an NFL football team, if you do the brig three prior to practice, you will run and cut just a little bit faster. So you're on the field, you run. And you cut the stiffer the core. When the hips explode into external rotation, you're now creating a faster directional change. So what were the muscles or what were the exercises? A modified curl up which remember now. I'm just going to start a little bit of an assessment. I'm going to take a patient, I'm going to have them sit on the stool and I say do you have symptoms right now? Humor me. And let's say you don't. Now I'm going to say drop your chest down does that concert? Oh, yeah. My left toe is going numb and I've got back pain. Good. Bring your chin down. And they might say that'll increase their pain or decrease it. But the point is that posture created their pain. If that is true, when they lay on their back and they imprinted their back into the floor doing a Pilates roll up, for example, that would be their specific pain trigger. So it's not much of a therapeutic exercise. But when you say, put your hands under your low back as you're laying on the ground, lift your elbows. Now hover up your head, neck and shoulders. And we're going to propel the abdominal contraction, breathe through her slips and allow the diaphragm to become the athlete inside this barrel. So that was the foundation of the modified curl up. Now, if the person has a rotator cuff issue or we will hack it and make it tolerable. Then I would see people, well, let's take a dumbbell or a kettlebell and we're going to raise it up laterally in the frontal plane like this for the side of the core. That would trigger pain in a lot of people. But I'll demonstrate all this if you want. But we could then do a side plank on the floor. The beauty of the side plank is only half the musculature is heavily challenged. The downside is heavily challenged. The upside is not you've only got half the load on the SP spine, very spine sparing. We prescribe it on 10 second intervals. Why? We use the Russian training science to show you build endurance through repeated 10 second exposures. Not getting tired to the point where you break form, nor do you develop a neural fatigue. And you get a much higher tolerable training level with this, what we call the Russian descending pyramid. And then for the back muscles, look. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2qppqLKEi0 .

Notable Quotes

“Non‑specific low back pain… is a myth.” 34 All right, so remind me, we're going to talk about non specific low back pain and how I think it's a myth and it doesn't exist. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2qppqLKEi0

Must‑Listen Clip

McGill walks through the Big Three, why each is spine‑sparing, and how to program them — a clinic in 2–5 minutes.

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Science & Curiosity

Episode Overview

• Show: Lex Fridman Podcast — Dave Hone on T. rex, dinosaurs, and extinction
• Summary: The T. rex reality: orca‑on‑land scale, superb eyesight, power‑walking (not sprinting) with a locked, energy‑efficient foot and a tail‑driven engine. Ecologically, it likely targeted juvenile/smaller prey 5–20% of its mass and did both predation and scavenging, as shown by healed vs. post‑erosion bite marks 14 So a colleague of mine, Tom Holtz, described them as an orca on land. That's it. It is a killer whale sized animal, but on legs on land. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo 22 But they have this beautiful adaptation in the foot. So the equivalent bones in the foot, the metatarsals, so for us make up the flat of the feet. But these animals walk like birds. They've got three toes on the ground and then the metatarsals stick nearly vertically. That overall extends the length of the leg so you can walk a little bit faster, you get a slightly bigger stride length. Don't worry, I've got the right bone here. But they also have. Yeah, there's a good one, that one's a great one. But they also have this really neat adaptation in the middle bone. So you can see it on this one quite well. And that this is actually not a tyrannosaur, this is an ornithomimosaur. So one of the really ostrich like ones, Gallimimus from the first Jurassic park, it has the same thing. You can see the normal bones would be really quite long and square and then flat at the top. And instead this thing shrinks in the middle and turns into this kind of flattened diamond shape. And what that means is the bones either side kind of lock it. In fact, at the top end it actually tends to wiggle a bit, so actually goes left and then right. And of course what that really does is then help these things lock together. And so this is an adaptation to basically lock the foot and make it stable. And we see it in a whole bunch of things independently evolved. Early tyrannosaurs don't have this, early ornithominosaurs don't have this. The over at torosaurs, the early ones don't have this and the later ones acquire it and a couple of other groups as well. And it's about making the foot stable. And what that really does is make the foot energy efficient. So you can imagine as an animal, you know, we have some cartilage and we've got some ligaments and tendons joining all the bones together and holding joints stable. When you push down, that's going to compress them to a little degree. And when you lift that weight off, they're actually going to spring back. You're going to get a tiny little energy return. It's the idea of those air solves they put in all the trainers and stuff in the, in the 90s, it's that same principle. And you will, you'll get a little bit of energy return. But of course, big force, particularly for a big heavy animal, it's going to take the kind of path of least resistance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo 21 And the way they do that is the musculature on the tail. So we don't have a tail. And indeed, mammals that even do have a tail, you know, elephants and even lions, you know, it's a piddly little thing. There's not a lot of muscle there. But if you look at a lizard, particularly if you look at something like a crocodile, you see this massive, massive block of muscle sitting on the first third to half of the tail. And that's what dinosaurs are doing. It's the same thing as lizards and crocs. They have this giant set of muscles on the first half of the tail that's anchoring on the femur. So the thigh bone on the back of that and muscles contract. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo 12 And how fast does it move? So this is one of those things that's gone backwards and forwards and backwards and forwards. There was a paper arguing that we'd probably been overestimating various speeds, primarily based on footprints. There's been I don't know how many papers trying to do T Rex speed. The most recent one that was pretty detailed, I think had it clocked at. So I think it. I think it was 25 miles an hour. So 40kph was the very upper end of the estimate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo 20 I totted some of this up for a paper I did on Microraptor, this really small gliding dinosaur from China, where we actually have a bunch of specimens with various stomach contents in them. And we were coming up with numbers of about like 5 to 20% of the mass being typical. So prey versus predator. And that's actually very similar to what we see with modern carnivores. And it's not far off what we've seen, even with things like tyrannosaurs, where you occasionally find consumed bones from prey. So if we put the lower end of that as 5% of the mass of a T Rex, we might actually be okay. If it doesn't consider us worth the hassle, then assuming you're encountering a big adult and not a half sized one that maybe only weighs a ton, then we might be all right. What would be the survival strategy? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo 18 But the guys I was working with, like they were really hot on erosion and damage and they were looking at some of the way the bones had been damaged and they're like, okay, we're pretty confident that the bite marks are sitting on top of erosion. What does that mean? So it means that the animal had died and it was found in a, it was found in sand covered, but in what would have been a river channel. So this animal has died, washed downstream, ended up on a sandbank. The sand is whipping past because I've been in a sandstorm in China and it is not fun. And that's starting to etch some of the bones and damage them. And after that there's a bite mark. After that you're getting bite marks coming in. So that can only be scavenging. That thing has been dead and sitting out for days, possibly weeks before something came along and chewed on it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo .

Key Insights

• Foot mechanics (mid‑metatarsal “lock”) return energy each step; think endurance pursuit (hyena/wolf), not cheetah sprints 22 But they have this beautiful adaptation in the foot. So the equivalent bones in the foot, the metatarsals, so for us make up the flat of the feet. But these animals walk like birds. They've got three toes on the ground and then the metatarsals stick nearly vertically. That overall extends the length of the leg so you can walk a little bit faster, you get a slightly bigger stride length. Don't worry, I've got the right bone here. But they also have. Yeah, there's a good one, that one's a great one. But they also have this really neat adaptation in the middle bone. So you can see it on this one quite well. And that this is actually not a tyrannosaur, this is an ornithomimosaur. So one of the really ostrich like ones, Gallimimus from the first Jurassic park, it has the same thing. You can see the normal bones would be really quite long and square and then flat at the top. And instead this thing shrinks in the middle and turns into this kind of flattened diamond shape. And what that means is the bones either side kind of lock it. In fact, at the top end it actually tends to wiggle a bit, so actually goes left and then right. And of course what that really does is then help these things lock together. And so this is an adaptation to basically lock the foot and make it stable. And we see it in a whole bunch of things independently evolved. Early tyrannosaurs don't have this, early ornithominosaurs don't have this. The over at torosaurs, the early ones don't have this and the later ones acquire it and a couple of other groups as well. And it's about making the foot stable. And what that really does is make the foot energy efficient. So you can imagine as an animal, you know, we have some cartilage and we've got some ligaments and tendons joining all the bones together and holding joints stable. When you push down, that's going to compress them to a little degree. And when you lift that weight off, they're actually going to spring back. You're going to get a tiny little energy return. It's the idea of those air solves they put in all the trainers and stuff in the, in the 90s, it's that same principle. And you will, you'll get a little bit of energy return. But of course, big force, particularly for a big heavy animal, it's going to take the kind of path of least resistance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo 11 So that means they're probably looking at long distance rather than speed. And that makes sense because even though the kind of stuff we're talking about, like I said, maybe they're getting to 20, 25 miles an hour, that's pretty quick. But some of the smaller stuff is going to be a lot faster than that. And remember, that's a real upper estimate. They're probably not that quick, but yeah. They'Re just Jogging after you. Right. But they've got, they've got the distance. So, yeah, so it's much more hyena or wolf like strategy than like a cheetah going for hyperspeed or a lion going for a relatively quick burst. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo .
• Tail musculature, not arms, is the main propulsion partner for the hindlimb — another reason those tiny arms mattered less 21 And the way they do that is the musculature on the tail. So we don't have a tail. And indeed, mammals that even do have a tail, you know, elephants and even lions, you know, it's a piddly little thing. There's not a lot of muscle there. But if you look at a lizard, particularly if you look at something like a crocodile, you see this massive, massive block of muscle sitting on the first third to half of the tail. And that's what dinosaurs are doing. It's the same thing as lizards and crocs. They have this giant set of muscles on the first half of the tail that's anchoring on the femur. So the thigh bone on the back of that and muscles contract. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo 13 Well, T Rex has probably the smallest ligamentous pits of any tyrannosaur, so that kind of suggests it's not doing very much. And again, when you look at the claws, proportionally, they're not that big and they're not that curved. So even though it looks like quite a wicked thing to us, remember, put this on a 7 ton animal whose individual teeth are the size of entire fingers, suddenly that arm doesn't look like it's doing very much. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo .
• Bite‑mark/taphonomy: healed embedded teeth = predation; bite marks over erosion = scavenging 19 And then we've got the healed bite marks with T Rex teeth buried in bones, which is pretty much definitive active predation. So we've got evidence of it doing both. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo 18 But the guys I was working with, like they were really hot on erosion and damage and they were looking at some of the way the bones had been damaged and they're like, okay, we're pretty confident that the bite marks are sitting on top of erosion. What does that mean? So it means that the animal had died and it was found in a, it was found in sand covered, but in what would have been a river channel. So this animal has died, washed downstream, ended up on a sandbank. The sand is whipping past because I've been in a sandstorm in China and it is not fun. And that's starting to etch some of the bones and damage them. And after that there's a bite mark. After that you're getting bite marks coming in. So that can only be scavenging. That thing has been dead and sitting out for days, possibly weeks before something came along and chewed on it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo .

Recommendations & Resources

• Fieldcraft: stabilize fossils with Paraloid; use drones/photogrammetry; fund open‑access land for science over private auctions 16 What we're usually doing is applying glue to it, though. There's this wonderful stuff called paraloid, and it's a special glue for fossils. And I said, bone's super porous, so it's really good at sucking up liquids. Oh, so you're basically filling it with glue so it, like, makes it stronger. Yeah, and paralyzed really great because you can dissolve it with acetone and it basically doesn't react with anything. So you can fill your fossil with glue, but then if you want to take all that glue out, you can pretty much just dissolve the glue back out again. Very cool. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo 17 People are using drones and stuff for this, or taking hundreds of photos and then building photogrammetry models. You just got a 3D model in. The computer or just kind of modeling what we're looking at here. Yeah, but. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo 15 So there would be some element of a crowdsourced paleontology. Yeah, but it's more that, like no researcher ever needs to spend money to access that. No museum needs to go and find a new donor to give them half a million to go and buy this one specimen, knowing that it might still go. Yeah. To some Silicon Valley billionaires foyer or whatever. It's like, well, I own the land, so it's mine, so problem solved like that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo .

Notable Quotes

“It is a killer whale sized animal, but on legs on land.” 14 So a colleague of mine, Tom Holtz, described them as an orca on land. That's it. It is a killer whale sized animal, but on legs on land. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qm1_On71Oo

Must‑Listen Clip

The biomechanics block — how the foot and tail make T. rex an efficient distance predator.

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Bitcoin & Infra

Episode Overview

• Show: Bitcoin Audible Roundtable #12 — Lightning UX, Miniscript Magic, and the Mempool Mess
• Summary: A practical tour: Lightning UX growing pains (Relay drops support after low adoption + integration issues), Miniscript lands in Nunchuck (policy‑rich Taproot multisig), modular mining leaps (hot‑swap ASIC boards), StartOS clearnet recipes, and a heated but useful debate: mempool filters vs. “censorship” 10 So relay or relay the R, E, L, A I. I'm not sure how to pronounce it. Real AI Relay. No, it's. I think it's relay. I think it's just supposed to be relay, but I could be wrong, but they discontinued Lightning Network because of a low user adoption and technical issues. They did a Twitter post. Apparently 5% of their active users tried lightning, and, like, literally half of them had some sort of a technical problem. Oh man, that's so disappointing. But part of it was poor integration quality. Some are saying, I think it's probably, you know, all the things that we've talked about is this invoice wasn't supported, this standard wasn't, you know, like if you don't kind of like mechanic what you're saying, if you don't go full in and just go all the way to the end, which is still going to have problems is it's, it just, you're not going to have a good time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 8 Dude, I was so excited. So Nunchuck. Nunchuck has been my go to for a long time now. Yeah, my favorite wallet. I have tons of different multi sig setups and stuff and I've always dreamed about the. The different sort of like time lock and like hierarchical multi sig and all of this stuff. They have full support for miniscript. They just released it. I have it like right now. I haven't done anything with it. I haven't started a wallet but now I can totally do a. And they have like some built in templates that you can just select. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 6 Their project has now been unveiled and it looks awesome. So they have completely redesigned the entire thinking around how to model. Like your infrastructure is now separate from your asic. So your power block, your encasing, your fans, your, your inverter. Like all of the stuff is now separate from the chips modular. And you have boards that you can swap out and swap back in and in seconds you're running on the new asics. And like so they've, they've literally, they finally made it into infrastructure that can be where you can set up your entire enterprise and you can isolate one board and replace something without shutting anything down. Like without you like it's just like, like swap out to go. Just like you know, in any sort of big data center thing you gotta, you heart swap a hard drive, right? Is you gotta hot swap miners, you gotta hot swap ASIC boards. And it makes upgrading, it makes maintenance, it makes repairs. All of it's modular. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 87 So there are two methods for clearnet on startos and I've only used one of them so far. And that's the port forwarding method. Basically you go and buy a domain. Then if your start OS machine is on your home Internet, you have to get dynamic DNS because your IP address is going to keep changing, which means you can't use it as a server. Dynamic DNS basically is a service where that gives you a domain name with and with the ability to keep having its IP updated by your router at home, which says, hey, our IP just changed and it tells the DDNS server what that new IP is. Then you buy another domain and that can be like guy swan.com or whatever you want it to be. And you, you set up a records and cname records for that to point to the DDNS domain. That's all you have to do. Then you go into the start OS machine. Well, you go on your home network, you forward port 443 to your start OS box and any like bespoke port for like 8333 for Bitcoin for example or like 4 whatever for lightning. And then you just go to those services and you go to the Clearnet section and you just add a domain. So if you want your Lightning available over Clearnet you would just use a subdomain and you would add like lnd.guyswan.com with the port appended and then it just shows you a QR code for it. You take Zeus Wallet or whatever, scan it and it just connects to it from anywhere over the public Internet at that point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 1 Bitmex actually has two things on their blog which I find interesting because one of them is a showing that filters don't work because they, they got together and figured out a way like using just the idea of information theory, which they rightfully point out that the idea that information theory just proves filters it. It's not that you can't like say that information theory is, is a, is a, is a broad spectrum of what we think about how we think about information theory, think about information itself. So they rightfully kind of like caveat the, the notion or the claim. But they say that, you know, basically you can't, you can't stop it because they were able to actually hide a JPEG in private keys, right? And what they did was they created a like kind of like a 15 signature or 15 key system where 14 keys to 14 addresses actually have the, if you, if you release your K value, your, your secret or whatnot, that anybody can actually pull the image from that set of UTXOs. And. But still, because it's locked with there's a 15th, you still have the private key where you're the only one who can move it on chain. But all I could think when I Read the article. Is that like how much, how convoluted of a system. Like, like it's to create the most impractical possible way to accomplish this and to do so in something that's so information inefficient that nobody would ever even do it. Like they, they had to use like this like tiny little JPEG that was like only black and white because they're just doing like basically zeros and ones and it's like nobody's ever going to use this. It's like one of those things where somebody's like, I finally have the perfect bit VM architecture thing that does all of this stuff and it's got unilateral exit and it's this crazy construction where you have to have nodes that watch and you have to have service providers and you have to have like it's, you know, it's like a ten piece convoluted puzzle. And I'm like, yeah, you know, it sounds great when you talk about what you supposedly get out of it, but if it takes a hundred different things to set it up, like no, no, nobody's ever going to use that, that's not a, that's not a tool that's ever going to become a product. It's just theory, you know, it's just fun, a fun developer experiment and, and. You'Ve created something that costs 15 times as much. So you've literally created your own filter to filter out what you're. Yeah, they put it literally in the UTXO set, which is the most expensive way, which is literally all filters are even trying to do anyway, is to balance out the cost. And those UTXOs are actually still spendable because you still have the private key to them. So you can, you can prune them later if they actually get spent from. So, so it's, it's kind of like, kind of suggestion. And it's one of those things too. Like this is the argument that comes up over and over again that like really bugs me is not realizing that we're just, the whole point is to just balance the costs because right now they're getting a discount and they just shouldn't get a discount. And none of this relies on, it's back to the same thing of like, well, you can still get spammed through the filters. Nobody ever said you can't get spam through the filters. Why is this always the argument? Why did they just come up with a different way to say spam can still get through the filters? Of course it can. That's not the point, of course, Spam. In my spam, I still get spam. Does that mean that you shouldn't have any filter at all just because some spam leaks through? And it's. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 .

Key Insights

• Lightning onboarding still brittle at scale; wallet/interoperability specifics matter (only ~5% tried; ~50% hit issues in one deployment) 85 I think it's just supposed to be relay, but I could be wrong, but they discontinued Lightning Network because of a low user adoption and technical issues. They did a Twitter post. Apparently 5% of their active users tried lightning, and, like, literally half of them had some sort of a technical problem. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 .
• Miniscript lowers the bar for robust custody policies (time‑locks, thresholds) with better footprint/privacy under Taproot 8 Dude, I was so excited. So Nunchuck. Nunchuck has been my go to for a long time now. Yeah, my favorite wallet. I have tons of different multi sig setups and stuff and I've always dreamed about the. The different sort of like time lock and like hierarchical multi sig and all of this stuff. They have full support for miniscript. They just released it. I have it like right now. I haven't done anything with it. I haven't started a wallet but now I can totally do a. And they have like some built in templates that you can just select. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 .
• Modular rigs (separate infra + hot‑swap boards) cut upgrade/repair costs and invite new chip entrants — decentralization by design 6 Their project has now been unveiled and it looks awesome. So they have completely redesigned the entire thinking around how to model. Like your infrastructure is now separate from your asic. So your power block, your encasing, your fans, your, your inverter. Like all of the stuff is now separate from the chips modular. And you have boards that you can swap out and swap back in and in seconds you're running on the new asics. And like so they've, they've literally, they finally made it into infrastructure that can be where you can set up your entire enterprise and you can isolate one board and replace something without shutting anything down. Like without you like it's just like, like swap out to go. Just like you know, in any sort of big data center thing you gotta, you heart swap a hard drive, right? Is you gotta hot swap miners, you gotta hot swap ASIC boards. And it makes upgrading, it makes maintenance, it makes repairs. All of it's modular. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 5 Here's why, here's why it's going to destroy. Because now somebody who just has a better idea for a chip or for a more efficient board, like let's say we like go to some unified memory type thing, right? There's like just some idea about how to make it better. Doesn't have to make a power supply, doesn't have to make a case, doesn't have to make a fan. They just build a board that slides into Jack's infrastructure. Yep. And, and then same same thing in reverse is that you can then use all the boards in, in rig or in Proto or whatever you, whichever one you would refer to it as. And you can build your own case and use their boards like you can, you can find a, a better way to make a better power supply that's a little bit more efficient and swap that out without, without having to invent better chips. You don't have to have a chip manufacturer to make Asics better. So and then the fact that the. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 .
• Filters ≠ censorship: raising spam’s marginal cost is a decentralized defense, not a kill‑switch — and it can coexist with occasional evasion 9 That's not the point, of course, Spam. In my spam, I still get spam. Does that mean that you shouldn't have any filter at all just because some spam leaks through? And it's. Yeah, it's a contradiction as well, because they keep saying at the same time that it's a slippery slope to censorship. And I'm saying the reason that you can still evade spam filters is why they aren't a tool for censorship. That's why I'm all right with them in the first place. And this has been a constant gripe of mine. You can't be concerned about censorship, but also concerned that they sometimes don't work because the two things complement one another. It's yes, a sheep can end up on the wrong side of the fence sometimes, but you still need the fence generally, and it still has an effect that you. Just because a sheep escaped one time doesn't mean you get rid of the fence. And that's a pretty solid analogy here. It's not that obtuse. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 .

Recommendations & Resources

• Custody: use Nunchuck’s Miniscript templates for production‑grade policies; test spending paths before funding 8 Dude, I was so excited. So Nunchuck. Nunchuck has been my go to for a long time now. Yeah, my favorite wallet. I have tons of different multi sig setups and stuff and I've always dreamed about the. The different sort of like time lock and like hierarchical multi sig and all of this stuff. They have full support for miniscript. They just released it. I have it like right now. I haven't done anything with it. I haven't started a wallet but now I can totally do a. And they have like some built in templates that you can just select. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 7 They have full support for miniscript. They just released it. I have it like right now. I haven't done anything with it. I haven't started a wallet but now I can totally do a. And they have like some built in templates that you can just select. But if I wanted to I could do a two of three multisig with a three month time lock for any other of this set of keys with like a five of seven and then two of three. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 .
• Infra: for self‑hosting, either do full HA (clustered nodes) or use a pragmatic hosted layer (e.g., COINOS) — avoid half‑measures 3 For me, I'm just like, if you're going to not run a freaking highly available cluster of nodes on Proxmon with a failover to a virtual private server and all that stuff. Then the other extreme, I'm like, just use coinos. I hate everything in the middle. I'm just do it completely right. Run 15 bitcoin nodes all at different versions of knots and core or whatever. And Then I need you to do that, or I need you to just run coinostas. Like, just complete opposite. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 4 I love coin OS. Yeah, me too. They do. They do a fantastic job. Yeah. For me, I'm just like, if you're going to not run a freaking highly available cluster of nodes on Proxmon with a failover to a virtual private server and all that stuff. Then the other extreme, I'm like, just use coinos. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 .
• Networking: StartOS clearnet via domain + DDNS + port‑forward (or the “router‑in‑the‑sky” VPS script) for a stable public endpoint 87 So there are two methods for clearnet on startos and I've only used one of them so far. And that's the port forwarding method. Basically you go and buy a domain. Then if your start OS machine is on your home Internet, you have to get dynamic DNS because your IP address is going to keep changing, which means you can't use it as a server. Dynamic DNS basically is a service where that gives you a domain name with and with the ability to keep having its IP updated by your router at home, which says, hey, our IP just changed and it tells the DDNS server what that new IP is. Then you buy another domain and that can be like guy swan.com or whatever you want it to be. And you, you set up a records and cname records for that to point to the DDNS domain. That's all you have to do. Then you go into the start OS machine. Well, you go on your home network, you forward port 443 to your start OS box and any like bespoke port for like 8333 for Bitcoin for example or like 4 whatever for lightning. And then you just go to those services and you go to the Clearnet section and you just add a domain. So if you want your Lightning available over Clearnet you would just use a subdomain and you would add like lnd.guyswan.com with the port appended and then it just shows you a QR code for it. You take Zeus Wallet or whatever, scan it and it just connects to it from anywhere over the public Internet at that point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 86 Then they have this other method which is the router in a sky method. It's really, really complicated, but they've obfuscated all the complication with one script. So you just go in and you have to buy a VPS for this. So like Amazon web server or you know, Azure or DigitalOcean or something like that. You set up SSH for it, then you tell the Start OS box what the SSH credentials are and you run a script and it turns that V into a router in the sky. So then you don't need to forward ports or set up dynamic DNS or anything like that. You just have it sitting there in a VPS and then all of your services are connected to that and instead of pointing to your home Internet, you point to the VPS IP address which will have a static IP as well. That's why you don't, you know, you will have to pay like $2 a month for that or something. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0 .

Notable Quotes

“You can’t be concerned about censorship, but also concerned that [filters] sometimes don’t work… just because a sheep escaped one time doesn’t mean you get rid of the fence.” 2 And I'm saying the reason that you can still evade spam filters is why they aren't a tool for censorship. That's why I'm all right with them in the first place. And this has been a constant gripe of mine. You can't be concerned about censorship, but also concerned that they sometimes don't work because the two things complement one another. It's yes, a sheep can end up on the wrong side of the fence sometimes, but you still need the fence generally, and it still has an effect that you. Just because a sheep escaped one time doesn't mean you get rid of the fence. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1w_9tlF0-0

Must‑Listen Clip

The 2–5 minute exchange where BitMEX‑style evasion demos meet the practical case for soft, decentralized filtering — theory vs. incentives, plainly argued.

Policy & Macro

All-In Podcast — US takes a 10% stake in Intel

Episode Overview

Title: Equity over grants for strategic industries • Guests: David Sacks, Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis (hosts/panel)

The hosts dissect the U.S. government’s decision to convert CHIPS Act support into a non‑voting, ~10% equity stake in Intel, arguing taxpayers should capture upside when national‑security priorities require public capital. They contrast this with past interventions (e.g., TARP) where gains didn’t accrue to the public and outline criteria for when equity makes sense. 143 The US government just took a 10% stake in Intel. Last Friday, Trump announced that the US government would acquire 10% of the chip maker. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo 127 The US government just took a 10% stake in Intel. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo 142 So Trump and Lutnick came in and said, hey, instead of giving this money for free, we would like to get something for it. And they are going to get non voting shares. There's no golden share like in China where you get board of representation and you can kind of control the board. This will be passive. No board seats, no governance rights. Letnick was very clear about that on cnbc. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo 141 As we all know, there was this CHIPS act to try to onshore chip manufacturing. There's a lot of chip companies that are US but they don't actually make the chips here in the United States. Most of chips in the world are made in Taiwan, obviously by tsmc. And so these grants were created. Nine billion of them were grants. There were also tens of billions in loans. And that was the CHIPS Act. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo 138 What the United States has always done is we have been the lender of last resort, but we've never participated in the upside that being that lender of last resort has given us as the American taxpayer. So for example, in 2008 we created TARP where we bailed out all kinds of toxic assets. What did we get in return for that? Nothing. We barely got our money back. When Warren Buffett stepped in to backstop Goldman Sachs, he was able to get the United States government to help him backstop that. Who got all the gains? Buffett and shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. Who put up more money? The United States taxpayer. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo 134 Intel received something like over $8 billion under the Chips act because we let the free market do its thing and it resulted in chip manufacturing being offshored and it all ended up on the island of Taiwan. And that's a huge national security issue for the United States because now our whole supply chain for this critical resource is single threaded on Taiwan. So we made the decision as a country to onshore chip manufacturing. That's what the CHIP act was about. It had large bipartisan support. So there's this priority to bring chip manufacturing back onshore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo

Key Insights

• What changed: A portion of CHIPS Act support became passive, non‑voting equity in Intel, not a free grant 142 So Trump and Lutnick came in and said, hey, instead of giving this money for free, we would like to get something for it. And they are going to get non voting shares. There's no golden share like in China where you get board of representation and you can kind of control the board. This will be passive. No board seats, no governance rights. Letnick was very clear about that on cnbc. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo 139 These grants have been allocated, they were not paid out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo .
• Why it matters: Most chip manufacturing is concentrated in Taiwan; onshoring is a national‑security priority 140 Most of chips in the world are made in Taiwan, obviously by tsmc. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo 134 Intel received something like over $8 billion under the Chips act because we let the free market do its thing and it resulted in chip manufacturing being offshored and it all ended up on the island of Taiwan. And that's a huge national security issue for the United States because now our whole supply chain for this critical resource is single threaded on Taiwan. So we made the decision as a country to onshore chip manufacturing. That's what the CHIP act was about. It had large bipartisan support. So there's this priority to bring chip manufacturing back onshore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo .
• Better alignment: The U.S. has acted as lender of last resort without upside (e.g., TARP, Goldman backstop). Equity stakes share gains with taxpayers 138 What the United States has always done is we have been the lender of last resort, but we've never participated in the upside that being that lender of last resort has given us as the American taxpayer. So for example, in 2008 we created TARP where we bailed out all kinds of toxic assets. What did we get in return for that? Nothing. We barely got our money back. When Warren Buffett stepped in to backstop Goldman Sachs, he was able to get the United States government to help him backstop that. Who got all the gains? Buffett and shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. Who put up more money? The United States taxpayer. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo .
• Design principles: Prefer equity/warrants (no “golden vote”), full transparency, and market financing, used selectively when the free market fails on strategic goals 137 I think that this approach is the much better approach, which is to say we can do exactly what China did with a couple of tweaks. It's way better, as you said Jason, to just put in the equity, own something on the balance sheet of the United States, not have a golden vote, have complete transparency, allow the capital markets to finance these businesses but give them a chance to compete all around the world and then the US taxpayer gets some of the upside. That is awesome. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo 135 Right? We don't really want our companies going to the federal government to try and get bailed out. And at least if they have to give up equity or warrants, things like that, there's a cost to it. We would rather that these companies get financed privately. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo 129 But to answer your question, I mean, would I be looking for lots more opportunities to do this? I think there has to be a national security interest or something of that kind. And I think it has to be a situation where for whatever reason, the free market has failed to deliver on that priority. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo .

Recommendations & Resources

• Policy design: Use equity/warrants in large, strategic interventions; avoid control rights; disclose terms to keep markets functioning 137 I think that this approach is the much better approach, which is to say we can do exactly what China did with a couple of tweaks. It's way better, as you said Jason, to just put in the equity, own something on the balance sheet of the United States, not have a golden vote, have complete transparency, allow the capital markets to finance these businesses but give them a chance to compete all around the world and then the US taxpayer gets some of the upside. That is awesome. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo .
• Scope conditions: Apply when there’s a clear national‑security interest and private capital has underperformed 129 But to answer your question, I mean, would I be looking for lots more opportunities to do this? I think there has to be a national security interest or something of that kind. And I think it has to be a situation where for whatever reason, the free market has failed to deliver on that priority. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo .

Notable Quotes

“The US government just took a 10% stake in Intel.” 127 The US government just took a 10% stake in Intel. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo

“We barely got our money back.” 124 We barely got our money back. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo

“It’s way better … to just put in the equity … and then the US taxpayer gets some of the upside.” 137 I think that this approach is the much better approach, which is to say we can do exactly what China did with a couple of tweaks. It's way better, as you said Jason, to just put in the equity, own something on the balance sheet of the United States, not have a golden vote, have complete transparency, allow the capital markets to finance these businesses but give them a chance to compete all around the world and then the US taxpayer gets some of the upside. That is awesome. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQG-0N4Pzzo

Must‑Listen Clip

Approx. 01:53–04:39 — Chamath’s historical context (China’s playbook), the U.S.’s past misses on upside, and a transparent, non‑controlling equity model for strategic sectors.

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Hoover Institution — Mary C. Daly (San Francisco Fed) on central‑bank communications

Episode Overview

Title: Clarity over precision in uncertain times • Guest: Mary Daly (President, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; FOMC member)

Daly tracks how the Fed moved from secrecy to active communication and where that went wrong in 2020. Her core message: in high uncertainty, over‑precision becomes a liability; use contingent, scenario‑based guidance and preserve flexibility. 107 Welcome to a special edition of Economics applied at Jackson Lake Lodge in beautiful Wyoming. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 106 With me is Mary Daly. She's president of the Federal Reserve bank of San Francisco and also a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, or fomc, which sets monetary policy for the United States. We're here at the Jackson Hole Monetary Policy Symposium. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 104 And I think it's useful to start with the beginning of central banking for all countries was communication is bad, don't communicate, because if you communicate, you take your tools away, you can't be agile, you won't surprise anybody. And the idea was surprises are what help with transmission of monetary policy. We've come a long way since then, but we started with what I would Call toes in the water. So the first thing we did under Greenspan was release a statement, an FOMC post meeting statement, that said, here's what we did. Remember, it was like blowing smoke up a chimney. And you had to read it from. Interest rates in the late 80s, early 90s. Yes. Okay, that's way back. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 98 You know, in the speech you referenced I talked about how precision after the GFC was really important because it helped us be moving markets to know that we were going to do lower for longer to support the economy. But then we used some of the aspects of that precision guidance in September of 2020, which turned out to be a communications challenge for us once the inflation started picking up and was rising so rapidly we had to offset it with aggressive rate hikes. When I look back on that, I said what's lesson we learned from that from my vantage point, I wanted to. Ask you about that. Already preempted it go. Oh, my lesson there is that really you have to have state dependent contingent communication and the precision we were trying to offer was actually becomes a burden down the road. Not in terms of what we can do. As you remember, we raised the interest rate rapidly so we weren't tied up, but the communication was tied up. And I think you could look back on inflation expectations drifting up and people saying, well we're just not going to react until unemployment. It comes down to a certain level that ultimately taught me that too much precision, even in these times that feel like a complete crisis may actually be suboptimal be the something you don't want to do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04

Key Insights

• Duty and tools: Transparency and accountability underpin policy; toolset includes post‑meeting statements, Chair pressers, and SEPs 105 Okay, so you gave a really interesting speech a couple months ago on central bank communications about monetary policy, and I wanted to ask you about that. And just to set things up, I think you started off the speech or pretty early on, noting that central bankers have a duty as public servants to be transparent about their actions and accountable for them. So I think you took that as a premise. You also stretch stressed that the purpose of central bank communications is to improve understanding of monetary policy. And so am I on the right page so far? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 103 So we have many features that we use, many tools. So we've released a post FOMC statement. The Chair gives a press conference after each meeting and goes through what the statement meant. Four times a year we do the summary of economic projections where participants project their views on the economy and the interest rate path. And we also go out and speak. I'm talking with you, many of my colleagues are talking about the economy. So we're all out there. Conveyed. The chair talks regularly. So we're talking about these things. Where the, the challenge comes, I think is that the world we're sitting in today is highly uncertain. So for us to be overly precise about what we will be doing a month from now, six months from now probably would be non additive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 .
• Precision vs. clarity: SEPs are snapshots, not promises; too much precision can bind messaging and harm credibility 102 So we send out, you know, I have a phrase that I use regularly and it's those summary of economic projections are as good as the day they're printed. And what you really want to take from them is how are the participants overall reacting? Because, you know, we write down something about the economy and the evolution of monetary policy based on the best information we have and our expectations of how it will evolve tomor a different data point could come out, a different shock could hit the economy. We're going to have to adjust. So what is, I think, unhelpful is that that gets set up as for strong forward guidance when it's actually not meant to be. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 99 So we send out, you know, I have a phrase that I use regularly and it's those summary of economic projections are as good as the day they're printed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 97 Oh, my lesson there is that really you have to have state dependent contingent communication and the precision we were trying to offer was actually becomes a burden down the road. Not in terms of what we can do. As you remember, we raised the interest rate rapidly so we weren't tied up, but the communication was tied up. And I think you could look back on inflation expectations drifting up and people saying, well we're just not going to react until unemployment. It comes down to a certain level that ultimately taught me that too much precision, even in these times that feel like a complete crisis may actually be suboptimal be the something you don't want to do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 .
• Communicate contingently: Prefer scenario analysis (“if X, then Y”) in volatile environments; keep reaction functions flexible 101 In one of our monetary policy framework conferences, public conference, we had Ben Bernanke talk about scenario analysis. This is a thing that all central banks, or many of them are grappling with. How do you convey the uncertainty and the wide range of possible outcomes while you remain sensible enough that a person can follow what you're talking about? Yeah. The scenario analysis that Ben Bernanke is proposing is a form of contingent. It is contingent statements about the future rather than point projections. It is. And one of the things you'll see if I just, I'll take 10 seconds here is that many of us right now are Talking about scenarios, if the economy does this and tariffs proved to be a persistent effect on inflation, this would require this. If the labor market falters, this will require this. If things evolve with a little bit of an effect on short term inflation and a soft in labor market, we'll do this. I think that is the communication. It's very unsatisfying though to some people who want point clarity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 95 So thinking carefully about what you're trying to do and recognizing you have a lot of uncertainty, I'd say the same thing applies today. The world's very uncertain right now, so if we over communicate precision, we're likely to find ourselves at odds with the data. Okay, so two things. One, I hear you saying you're actually making a pretty subtle point about precision, which is you're not just, you're saying that the optimal level degree of precision in monetary policy pronouncements is itself state contingent. It is. It may have been very different in the midst of the GFC than what it probably, according to your view, might, might better have been in 2021. Yeah. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 .
• Trust is central: Credibility is the “coin of the realm”; avoid adding noise with low‑quality or over‑certain guidance 100 The coin of the realm is the way I often put it, it is the coin of the realm. Ultimately, if you don't have that, then all other things are harder and less effective. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 94 I don't know if it's about the number of people who are talking or the number of things we're. But I do think that we have to collectively decide as a group what is our main goal. So I think one of our main goals is transparency, but the second one should be clarity. And if we're adding a lot of noise and nobody understands what we're saying, I think that's a problem. Or if we're communicating too strongly of you, only to find out that, you know, we didn't add clarity at all, we had confusion. So thoughtful communication for its own sake is not a goal. Communication for the sake of the public, that is a goal. And I think it's not, it's not just too much, it's the quality. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 .

Recommendations & Resources

• Analysts: Interpret SEPs as conditional; focus on scenario‑based language rather than point forecasts 102 So we send out, you know, I have a phrase that I use regularly and it's those summary of economic projections are as good as the day they're printed. And what you really want to take from them is how are the participants overall reacting? Because, you know, we write down something about the economy and the evolution of monetary policy based on the best information we have and our expectations of how it will evolve tomor a different data point could come out, a different shock could hit the economy. We're going to have to adjust. So what is, I think, unhelpful is that that gets set up as for strong forward guidance when it's actually not meant to be. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 101 In one of our monetary policy framework conferences, public conference, we had Ben Bernanke talk about scenario analysis. This is a thing that all central banks, or many of them are grappling with. How do you convey the uncertainty and the wide range of possible outcomes while you remain sensible enough that a person can follow what you're talking about? Yeah. The scenario analysis that Ben Bernanke is proposing is a form of contingent. It is contingent statements about the future rather than point projections. It is. And one of the things you'll see if I just, I'll take 10 seconds here is that many of us right now are Talking about scenarios, if the economy does this and tariffs proved to be a persistent effect on inflation, this would require this. If the labor market falters, this will require this. If things evolve with a little bit of an effect on short term inflation and a soft in labor market, we'll do this. I think that is the communication. It's very unsatisfying though to some people who want point clarity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 .
• Policymakers: Test messages “toes in the water” and prioritize clarity that supports public understanding 96 But it's useful to remind yourself how Ben Bernanke, the FOMC had charted the course. They didn't do it with a light switch. Right. They didn't say, oh I know the problem, problem, let me do it. They did toes in the water. And when you do toes in the water, you learn more over time. I think that's a useful thing. Step wise, right? Step function, kind of test and go, test and go. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 94 I don't know if it's about the number of people who are talking or the number of things we're. But I do think that we have to collectively decide as a group what is our main goal. So I think one of our main goals is transparency, but the second one should be clarity. And if we're adding a lot of noise and nobody understands what we're saying, I think that's a problem. Or if we're communicating too strongly of you, only to find out that, you know, we didn't add clarity at all, we had confusion. So thoughtful communication for its own sake is not a goal. Communication for the sake of the public, that is a goal. And I think it's not, it's not just too much, it's the quality. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04 .

Notable Quotes

“Trust is the coin of the realm.” 100 The coin of the realm is the way I often put it, it is the coin of the realm. Ultimately, if you don't have that, then all other things are harder and less effective. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04

“Communication for the sake of the public, that is a goal.” 93 So thoughtful communication for its own sake is not a goal. Communication for the sake of the public, that is a goal. And I think it's not, it's not just too much, it's the quality. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04

“Too much precision … may actually be suboptimal.” 97 Oh, my lesson there is that really you have to have state dependent contingent communication and the precision we were trying to offer was actually becomes a burden down the road. Not in terms of what we can do. As you remember, we raised the interest rate rapidly so we weren't tied up, but the communication was tied up. And I think you could look back on inflation expectations drifting up and people saying, well we're just not going to react until unemployment. It comes down to a certain level that ultimately taught me that too much precision, even in these times that feel like a complete crisis may actually be suboptimal be the something you don't want to do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKHJyt0ix04

Must‑Listen Clip

Approx. 14:03–15:16 — Daly’s candid take on why 2020 precision became a burden and how state‑dependent guidance should work.

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Health & Longevity

The Peter Attia Drive — Stuart McGill, PhD: Should you stop deadlifting as you age?

Episode Overview

Title: From max PRs to “sufficient” strength • Guests: Peter Attia, Stuart McGill

Attia and McGill outline a risk‑aware path for strength training as you age: deadlifts have value but a narrow safety window; prioritize longevity by replacing frequent max efforts with joint‑friendly patterns, building “sufficient” strength, and tracking VO2 max and grip strength. 133 But when I, when I think about in particular squats and deadlifts, I'll tell you where, especially around the deadlift, which is an exercise I really, really enjoy, where I feel conflicted. On the one hand, I feel like now that I'm so tuned in to how to do this movement correctly, it's a really wonderful audit for my stability system. Right. Again, I'm embarrassed to tell you how much I didn't know when I was deadlifting. At no point did I understand the importance tension in the arms, intra abdominal pressure, the variability in foot pressure on the ground, like none of that stuff, right? It was just pure brute force stupidity. Today, as I know those things, it allows me to modulate force and to on a good day, kind of push the envelope a little bit in what I perceive as safe. So on the one hand I think yeah, I should be deadlifting my whole life, not I don't need to deadlift £400 anymore, but I should be deadlifting because it's this great audit and on the days that I don't feel it, I back off. And then on the other days I say, Peter, you don't need to do this anymore because honestly you can still get the same or nearly the same activation for all of the muscles involved using other movements, single leg movements in particular, where you don't have a fraction of the axial loading, loading. And yeah, you might need to do two exercises instead, instead of one. But at the end of the day there's a lower risk approach to get it. In other words, deadlifting is valuable, but you have a narrow operating window in which you can potentially hurt yourself. So I continue to go back and forth on this Stuart, and as such, here I am telling you I still will go periods of my life where I'll deadlift every week and then I'll take three months off feeling like I don't want to push it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q 113 In other words, deadlifting is valuable, but you have a narrow operating window in which you can potentially hurt yourself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q 116 And you know, I've taken some very accomplished powerlifters and we've taken out all the squats and just do squat sled work, backwards walking uphills, some of these old time techniques and their joints settle down, they get a sustainable fitness, they lose this idea of maximum effort, squats and deads. And now they're thinking of the word sufficient strength, sufficient mobility, sufficient endurance. And we've been doing this long enough now that we've tracked them and those are the ones that are getting through. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q 118 People often ask me, stuart, why do you think grip strength is such a great proxy for longevity? And I say it's the same reason. I think VO2 Max is a great proxy for longevity. Those are probably the two best biomarkers we have. It sounds crazy, by the way, that your VO2 max and your grip strength are better predictors of how long you're going to live than whether or not you smoke, drink, what your family history is for cancer. Like, those things all matter. But it's amazing how dwarfed they are by those two. And my best explanation for it is that those are the best two integrators for the work you've done. Right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q

Key Insights

• Risk window: Deadlifting is valuable but easy to get wrong; heavy loading can accumulate microfractures without adequate rest 113 In other words, deadlifting is valuable, but you have a narrow operating window in which you can potentially hurt yourself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q 130 There are actually Vint, you said a true personal best. Most people experience micro fracturing just underneath the end plate of the trabecular bone. If you look at the great strength athletes they train deadlift and again if you go to our website, look at the testimonials at the bottom, the number of world class deadlifters who are on there. So you know, I've worked with with quite a few of these people through their injuries. Now those micro fractures could be a good thing or a bad thing. The professional power lifter will take a week off. They train heavy deadlifts or squats once a week because it takes a week for the bone callus to not only attach through the chemical electro attraction but to really scaffold on takes a week. If you deadlift in another three or four days the way some trainers, they might deadl the client three times a week that allows those micro fractures to accumulate until finally you've got a full blown endplate fracture. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q .
• Safer swaps: Use single‑leg work, sleds, backward hill walks, monster walks, and exhaustion sequencing to recruit glutes without axial load 131 And then on the other days I say, Peter, you don't need to do this anymore because honestly you can still get the same or nearly the same activation for all of the muscles involved using other movements, single leg movements in particular, where you don't have a fraction of the axial loading, loading. And yeah, you might need to do two exercises instead, instead of one. But at the end of the day there's a lower risk approach to get it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q 122 And you know, I've taken some very accomplished powerlifters and we've taken out all the squats and just do squat sled work, backwards walking uphills, some of these old time techniques and their joints settle down, they get a sustainable fitness, they lose this idea of maximum effort, squats and deads. And now they're thinking of the word sufficient strength, sufficient mobility, sufficient endurance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q 108 I showed them a monster walk, okay, Monster walk. Now we're going to the bottom of the hill and I want you to lean back into the hill and we're walking backwards. You're going to align your foot, ankle, knee and hip and push through the knee, through the knee, through the knee, backwards up the hill. Do you know, after 30 meters they were absolutely done. Here they are doing all this deadlifting and they don't even have the leg strength endurance to walk backwards 30 meters. Totally inappropriate stimulation of their athleticism to make it through to 80. So good for you, let's do it again. We walked down the hill, we did three sets, they could hardly walk. And then we played the neurological trick, which I like to do a lot of now. I said walk forwards up the hill, but pretend you have $100 in your butt cheeks. Don't let anyone take it. Now walks up the hills and they say, I've never felt this before. The brain perceives exhausted quads. It now has to go and get the glutes, it's the only thing left. So quite often we'll do an exhaustion focus to stimulate the thing that we really want to stimulate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q .
• Train for longevity: Aim for “sufficient strength/mobility/endurance,” not endless PRs; track VO2 max + grip strength as powerful longevity proxies 116 And you know, I've taken some very accomplished powerlifters and we've taken out all the squats and just do squat sled work, backwards walking uphills, some of these old time techniques and their joints settle down, they get a sustainable fitness, they lose this idea of maximum effort, squats and deads. And now they're thinking of the word sufficient strength, sufficient mobility, sufficient endurance. And we've been doing this long enough now that we've tracked them and those are the ones that are getting through. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q 117 I think VO2 Max is a great proxy for longevity. Those are probably the two best biomarkers we have. It sounds crazy, by the way, that your VO2 max and your grip strength are better predictors of how long you're going to live than whether or not you smoke, drink, what your family history is for cancer. Like, those things all matter. But it's amazing how dwarfed they are by those two. And my best explanation for it is that those are the best two integrators for the work you've done. Right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q .

Recommendations & Resources

• Protocol ideas: Backward uphill walking, squat‑sleds, farmer carries, monster walks; sequence fatigue to target glutes 108 I showed them a monster walk, okay, Monster walk. Now we're going to the bottom of the hill and I want you to lean back into the hill and we're walking backwards. You're going to align your foot, ankle, knee and hip and push through the knee, through the knee, through the knee, backwards up the hill. Do you know, after 30 meters they were absolutely done. Here they are doing all this deadlifting and they don't even have the leg strength endurance to walk backwards 30 meters. Totally inappropriate stimulation of their athleticism to make it through to 80. So good for you, let's do it again. We walked down the hill, we did three sets, they could hardly walk. And then we played the neurological trick, which I like to do a lot of now. I said walk forwards up the hill, but pretend you have $100 in your butt cheeks. Don't let anyone take it. Now walks up the hills and they say, I've never felt this before. The brain perceives exhausted quads. It now has to go and get the glutes, it's the only thing left. So quite often we'll do an exhaustion focus to stimulate the thing that we really want to stimulate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q 109 Like you had to do the work, you had to be carrying heavy things, whatever it be, chopping wood, carrying cinder blocks, doing farmer carries. And of course that also speaks to stability, right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q 111 I showed them a monster walk, okay, Monster walk. Now we're going to the bottom of the hill and I want you to lean back into the hill and we're walking backwards. You're going to align your foot, ankle, knee and hip and push through the knee, through the knee, through the knee, backwards up the hill. Do you know, after 30 meters they were absolutely done. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q .
• Recovery: Space max lifts (pros often rest a week); avoid 3x‑weekly heavy deadlifts 112 The professional power lifter will take a week off. They train heavy deadlifts or squats once a week because it takes a week for the bone callus to not only attach through the chemical electro attraction but to really scaffold on takes a week. If you deadlift in another three or four days the way some trainers, they might deadl the client three times a week that allows those micro fractures to accumulate until finally you've got a full blown endplate fracture. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q .

Notable Quotes

“Deadlifting is valuable, but you have a narrow operating window in which you can potentially hurt yourself.” 113 In other words, deadlifting is valuable, but you have a narrow operating window in which you can potentially hurt yourself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q

“VO2 max and grip strength are better predictors of how long you’re going to live…” 114 I think VO2 Max is a great proxy for longevity. Those are probably the two best biomarkers we have. It sounds crazy, by the way, that your VO2 max and your grip strength are better predictors of how long you're going to live than whether or not you smoke, drink, what your family history is for cancer. Like, those things all matter. But it's amazing how dwarfed they are by those two. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm_qB6qy1Q

Must‑Listen Clip

Approx. 05:55–07:16 — The backward‑walk + “$100 in your back pocket” cue to switch on glutes, and why these low‑risk drills beat repeated max deadlifts for long‑term function.

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Bryan Johnson — Your House Is Making You Sick

Episode Overview

Title: Home “autopilot” for cleaner air, water, and sleep • Host: Bryan Johnson

A room‑by‑room walkthrough of indoor contaminants and simple systems (filters, monitors, cookware, lighting) to reduce exposure and improve sleep — with a focus on making one‑time decisions that don’t require daily willpower. 69 Bri, today we're going to talk about the contaminants in your home and the things you can do to remove them, starting with that which is in your entryway. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E 68 We've covered some basics of home Brynamics, but keep watching for more hidden dangers in your kitchen, bedroom, and living room. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E 55 Okay, build systems. So that's why, for example, putting a high MERV filter in your H vac system is really good. You put it in and you forget about it. So most of these things you're trying to say, systems and habits solve for health. That way it avoids you going through anxiety loops of having to do the same thing again and again. You see throughout the house. I've tried to put this house on autopilot. I think about this as my autonomous self. All things I do for health, I try to never make a decision twice. Once system solved. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E

Key Insights

• Air: Use the highest MERV your HVAC supports (e.g., 13); add portable HEPA in the bedroom; monitor PM2.5/VOCs/CO2 to validate performance 66 This is a MERV 13 filter. So MERV is a rating of how many toxins your filter is going to capture for this particular H Vac system. It can handle a MERV 13, but not all H Vac systems can handle that much. A MERV 8 is only going to capture about 30% of PM2.5. So the higher you can go, the better. But don't go higher than your system is rated, otherwise it will cause problems. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E 50 Now remember, you don't have to do all these things. A good MER filter in your H vac system could be good enough. But if you want a quick win, just grab a portable HEPA air purifier for your bedroom, plug it in, let it run while you sleep, and enjoy your deep sleep. Now, one final thing is people oftentimes raise the question about emf. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E 52 To see how bad the problem is, you'll need to measure your indoor air quality with specialized sensors. Now, I have two monitors. For example, this guy gives you something called PM2.5. That's a particular kind of toxin, and I want to know what it is. There's also PM1, PM10. I see VOCs on this one. This guy gives me a much more general number of AQI. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E .
• Kitchen: Swap gas for induction (NO2/PM spikes linked to ~13% of U.S. childhood asthma) and avoid PFAS nonstick; use stainless or cast iron 61 Using just one gas burner quickly spikes nitrogen dioxide and fine particles. These are linked to around 13% of childhood asthma cases in the US and you breed them in every time you cook for a while. My chef made the food at their house and they delivered it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E 63 But while we're on the topic of materials, you want to be aware of the pans you're using. You want to specifically avoid nonstick pans. They can have pfas. These are forever chemicals. They're really bad chemicals. You don't want them in your body. One way to avoid that is to use a material that does not have PFAs. This for example is food grain stainless steel. You could also use cast iron. None of these have PFAs. Okay, let's look at the stove. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E .
• Water: Reverse osmosis drops dissolved solids dramatically; test routinely 65 And I have a reverse osmosis water system that does a great job filtering for these contaminants. If you get a good water filtration system, these reverse osmosis systems cost between a few hundred dollars to over 1,000. But the water's clean. We test it every month, so we have a data sheet on what exactly you're drinking straight from the tap. You get over 300 milligrams of dissolved substances. With reverse osmosis, that drops to almost nothing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E 53 You get over 300 milligrams of dissolved substances. With reverse osmosis, that drops to almost nothing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E .
• Sleep: Blackout the room; use dim red light pre‑bed and pink noise at night 59 The first thing you're going to notice is it is completely blacked out. I've noticed in my own testing I of the various places I've slept, either hotel rooms or bedrooms, a blacked out bedroom substantially improves sleep quality. Now, to illustrate how sensitive your body is to light, even 10 lux of light can halve your melatonin production and fragment your sleep. Your body is hypersensitive to light. So you can see here, this room does not see light ever. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E 58 So one thing I have is a low cost red lamp. This guy is maybe $30. I have nice natural light in the home, so I rarely turn on lights in the house at all. But at night when it's getting dark, I'll turn this guy on. It's enough light to navigate the house. It's a really cool vibe. It's soothing, it's calming. I know we're getting ready for bed. So a very low cost solution, A high yield on sleep quality and it's kind of cool. Try using a dim red LED in your living room and do so two hours before bed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E 47 You can get white noise, brown noise and pink noise. Pink noise is best. It's less high pitched than white noise and has a similar audio signature to rustling leaves, rain and wind. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E .

Recommendations & Resources

• Quick wins: Remove shoes at the door; HEPA bedroom purifier; HEPA vacuum twice weekly 46 85% of the outside world's contaminants include leads and pesticides. So the big one here is remove your shoes at the door. Once this stuff is inside your house, it's far more likely to get inside you and your family's bodies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E 50 Now remember, you don't have to do all these things. A good MER filter in your H vac system could be good enough. But if you want a quick win, just grab a portable HEPA air purifier for your bedroom, plug it in, let it run while you sleep, and enjoy your deep sleep. Now, one final thing is people oftentimes raise the question about emf. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E 56 One thing you can do is have a vacuum with a HEPA grade filter. Then vacuum twice a week. That will be a great offset to the things it will otherwise store. A good HEPA filter on Your vacuum removes 99.97% of microplastic particles, which helps you avoid chronic irritation and respiratory issues. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E .
• Systems mindset: Fit the right HVAC filter once and forget; build habits that don’t require constant decisions 55 Okay, build systems. So that's why, for example, putting a high MERV filter in your H vac system is really good. You put it in and you forget about it. So most of these things you're trying to say, systems and habits solve for health. That way it avoids you going through anxiety loops of having to do the same thing again and again. You see throughout the house. I've tried to put this house on autopilot. I think about this as my autonomous self. All things I do for health, I try to never make a decision twice. Once system solved. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E .

Notable Quotes

“Remove your shoes at the door.” 46 85% of the outside world's contaminants include leads and pesticides. So the big one here is remove your shoes at the door. Once this stuff is inside your house, it's far more likely to get inside you and your family's bodies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E

“All things I do for health, I try to never make a decision twice. Once system solved.” 45 All things I do for health, I try to never make a decision twice. Once system solved. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDQOF3Jns5E

Must‑Listen Clip

Approx. 12:55–14:14 — Bedroom setup: pink noise + layered air purification and how to implement the “autopilot” approach at home.

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The Tim Ferriss Show — Dr. Dom D’Agostino on ketones, sardine fasting, and metabolic tools

Episode Overview

Title: Practical ketosis: measurement, protocols, and where it helps • Guest: Dom D’Agostino, PhD (USF)

Dom details how to measure and target therapeutic ketosis (GKI), why modest ketone ranges may be safer than ester spikes, and how “sardine fasting” can mimic fasting while supporting nutrition. He also outlines research on pairing ketone therapy with immunotherapies. 60 We co teach together at usf. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs 38 But you want to follow an approach therapeutically that keeps your GKI into that 1 to 4 range. Tom Seaford is very adamant about 1 to 2, but the normal GKI of a person in the US is like 50, right? Or 25 to 50. Living in a state of having a GKI of even five would be, I think, trending towards being more metabolically flexible and having greater fat oxidation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs 23 But there seemed to be sweet spot, maybe 1 to 2, I wouldn't go above 3, probably 1.5 to 2 millimolar range. That seems to be a level of ketones that safely does not produce a metabolic acidosis. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs 48 So was specifically using ketone metabolic therapy to augment immune therapy, specifically the checkpoint inhibitors. And that has to do with what I described about ketone metabolic therapy specifically beta hydroxybutyrate activating the adaptive immune system and making checkpoint inhibitors which is a class of drug that's. And CAR T therapy. So now they actually have a study with CAR T therapy and checkpoint inhibitors. So ketones tend to expand the T cells that are associated with CAR T therapy. So just kind of of enhancing that therapy and with the checkpoint inhibitors it tends to just enhance cancer specific immunity that is augmented by PD1 inhibitors. So they're specifically studying that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs

Key Insights

• Measure better: Use Keto‑Mojo (GKI) for daily experiments; labs often used Precision Xtra; OGTT + insulin or a CGM catch issues missed by fasting glucose 31 And however, when I recommend a meter to people, I generally recommend the Keto Mojo device because that has Keto mojo, the glucose ketone index. And so the glucose ketone index is the millimolar concentration of glucose over ketones. Yep. And the strips are about nowadays still less. I was going to say, I don't know, a few years ago they were about half the price. Yep. And we've tested the Keto Mojo. So we have a human clinical trial where we did, we did breath, we did urine and we did Precision Extra and Keto Mojo all together. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs 22 What is your preferred device for measuring ketones these days? For publications, we've used the Abbott Precision Extra because hist. We've used that. Yep. And however, when I recommend a meter to people, I generally recommend the Keto Mojo device because that has Keto mojo, the glucose ketone index. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs 32 Yeah, we got it all. And just for people, public service announcement. Do an oral glucose tolerance test, Ask your doctor, talk to them, get your insulin measured. Because my relative's metabolic dysfunction was missed for a very long time, in part because they were looking at fasting glucose. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs 51 Or put a CGM on them. That's what motivated me to be, I guess, one of the first advisors for levels. And I've worked with them on a research front. I think you've interviewed Sam. Yeah, Sam Corcos. I mean that's the ultimate kind of metabolic optimization platform. I mean there's others emerging too, but simply wearing, I mean now they have the Stella Stella device that came out. So CGMs are over the counter now, but the analytics from that and also the biomarkers that if you're part of that program that you can measure, which include many things that we could talk about, but that would capture your relatives, if your relatives put a CGM on. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs .
• Targets, not spikes: Aim ~1.5–2.0 mmol/L BHB; high ester spikes (>3 mmol/L) can alter pH and cause anxiogenic effects 23 But there seemed to be sweet spot, maybe 1 to 2, I wouldn't go above 3, probably 1.5 to 2 millimolar range. That seems to be a level of ketones that safely does not produce a metabolic acidosis. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs 44 But I think it's important because some of the feedback coming out, and I think you even mentioned too, when ketones get really high, what we observe, if ketones get too high, that can cause an anxiogenic effect. But there seemed to be sweet spot, maybe 1 to 2, I wouldn't go above 3, probably 1.5 to 2 millimolar range. That seems to be a level of ketones that safely does not produce a metabolic acidosis. So what we do see that when you get above 3, it starts to change blood ph. So it seems to maybe overwhelm the respiratory and renal compensation. And your kidneys put out bicarb and then there's respiratory and renal compensation that regulates your blood ph. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs .
• Sardine fasting: 1–2 cans/day for several days monthly can lower protein/insulin, support omega‑3 intake, and hit GKI 1–2 targets linked to autophagy markers 54 And then he would do five days. He would do a fasting mimicking diet that Valter Longo has advanced, but he has more of a plant based approach. But Dr. Hatfield would do. Fred would do one or two cans of sardines, maybe one can of sardine per day for a week. So we called it sardine fasting. And that was just as I was getting into this. And essentially what happened is that he went into rapid remission and the doctors didn't really know. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs 41 And omega 3 fatty acids are very potent mitigators of cancer cachexia. And so you have the Omega 3s and basically you have everything your body needs. Especially like nutrition wise in sardines. You might want to add a little bit of vitamin C or magnesium or something. But. But essentially it's like you have, you have adequate nutrition and then you create a caloric deficit. You create caloric restriction and then with caloric restriction come a whole host of beneficial things. The protein's low enough that you're suppressing insulin mtor and probably activating AMP kinase. And if you do that in a protracted way and you can achieve a glucose ketone index of 1 to 2 for about three to five days. The constellation of things that if you measure that, which sort of correlate with inducing and maximizing, maximizing autophagy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs 21 But Dr. Hatfield would do. Fred would do one or two cans of sardines, maybe one can of sardine per day for a week. So we called it sardine fasting. And that was just as I was getting into this. And essentially what happened is that he went into rapid remission and the doctors didn't really know. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs .
• Therapy combos: Early work explores ketone metabolic therapy to bolster adaptive immunity alongside PD‑1 inhibitors and CAR‑T 48 So was specifically using ketone metabolic therapy to augment immune therapy, specifically the checkpoint inhibitors. And that has to do with what I described about ketone metabolic therapy specifically beta hydroxybutyrate activating the adaptive immune system and making checkpoint inhibitors which is a class of drug that's. And CAR T therapy. So now they actually have a study with CAR T therapy and checkpoint inhibitors. So ketones tend to expand the T cells that are associated with CAR T therapy. So just kind of of enhancing that therapy and with the checkpoint inhibitors it tends to just enhance cancer specific immunity that is augmented by PD1 inhibitors. So they're specifically studying that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs .

Recommendations & Resources

• Tools: Keto‑Mojo (GKI), Precision Xtra, CGM platforms (e.g., Levels/Stella) 31 And however, when I recommend a meter to people, I generally recommend the Keto Mojo device because that has Keto mojo, the glucose ketone index. And so the glucose ketone index is the millimolar concentration of glucose over ketones. Yep. And the strips are about nowadays still less. I was going to say, I don't know, a few years ago they were about half the price. Yep. And we've tested the Keto Mojo. So we have a human clinical trial where we did, we did breath, we did urine and we did Precision Extra and Keto Mojo all together. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs 51 Or put a CGM on them. That's what motivated me to be, I guess, one of the first advisors for levels. And I've worked with them on a research front. I think you've interviewed Sam. Yeah, Sam Corcos. I mean that's the ultimate kind of metabolic optimization platform. I mean there's others emerging too, but simply wearing, I mean now they have the Stella Stella device that came out. So CGMs are over the counter now, but the analytics from that and also the biomarkers that if you're part of that program that you can measure, which include many things that we could talk about, but that would capture your relatives, if your relatives put a CGM on. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs .
• Transition tips: Hydrate, electrolytes, MCT, and low‑intensity fasted cardio to avoid the “keto flu” 30 I think the point is for most people is that if you start fasting or ketogenic diet and to avert the keto flu, you want to hydrate, get in electrolytes and also elevate ketones as much as possible. And to do that with mct, if you can tolerate it, or ketone electrolytes, I would not be guzzling a ketone ester because you're going to spike ketones up, you're going to inhibit your own ketone production. It's a dose dependent thing. But my advice would be low intensity cardio hydrate electrolytes and then small amounts of ketone electrolytes with mct. So MCT will stimulate your own ketone production too. So it kind of. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs .

Notable Quotes

“HSCRP is a better indicator of cardiovascular disease than LDL cholesterol.” 26 Yeah, I'd like to draw attention to that real quick because HSCRP is a better indicator of cardiovascular disease than LD cholesterol. We know that now. If you, someone said that like 10 years ago, they're just like, you think you're crazy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs

“A bigger lever would be sardine fasting … and a well‑formulated low‑carb ketogenic diet.” 24 A bigger lever would be sardine fasting, for one thing, and just beta hydroxybutyrate and a well formulated low carb supplemented ketogenic diet. By definition, a diet that elevates ketones and exercise. Right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB02_mF8qTs

Must‑Listen Clip

Approx. 08:36–09:11 — How to calculate and use the Glucose–Ketone Index (GKI) day‑to‑day and why Keto‑Mojo is practical for home use.

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Tech & Builders

Y Combinator — Michael Trowell (Cursor): betting on AI‑native coding tools

Episode Overview

Title: Building Cursor at 23: from pivots to product compounding • Guest: Michael Trowell

Trowell recounts Cursor’s pivot from niche ideas to a big bet: all coding will flow through models. The team shipped fast (initially a custom editor, then VS Code‑based), used product data to improve models, and saw growth compound as code‑aware features got better. 39 And I think we took a step back and realized that if we were being really consistent with our beliefs, there was going to be an opportunity for all of coding to change in the next five years and for all of software development to flow through models. And it felt like no one working on the space at the time was really taking that seriously. It felt like they had great products and they were making them a bit better, but they weren't really aiming for a world where all of coding as we know it today gets automated and. And building software ends up looking very, very different. Then with that in mind, we set out to work on that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og 43 It did take us a little bit of time to ship something publicly. It took us roughly, I think, Three months from first line of code to open it up and ga it. Originally what we did is we built our own editor from scratch. Oh my God. It was still using a bunch of open source building blocks. There are a lot of great primitives like Codemirror and the language servers, and there's a lot of open source tech that can help you build an editor. But yeah, no, it was cobbled together from scratch. And there was our own version of remote ssh, our own copilot integration at the time because we didn't have anything like autocomplete. You have to build your own peen system, you have to build all your own language server integrations. There's just a lot that ends up going into something as developed as the code editor market, making something that can actually be competitive there and service someone's daily driver. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og 42 I think another thing we learned was we were very rapidly building a feature complete version of what we want in a normal code editor, plus then some AI stuff that we thought was great. But then a feature complete code editor for the world is going to be a way, way, way longer road. We thought that VS code had been developed over the course of 12 years, was one of the earliest typescript projects, had lots of people on it, thought, oh yeah, of course, you can kind of spin something up that's just equivalent for the world in a few months. And I think that we learned very rapidly that that wasn't the reality. And our time was going to be best spent just focused on the AI stuff. And so similar to how browsers often base themselves off of Chromium's rendering engine, we then switched to being based off of VS code. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og 40 I think that there were a couple of things that really drove our growth. We're in this market where if you make the product better, you kind of see it in the numbers immediately where things start to grow more. And so we felt it around when we first started to make cursor code base aware, when we first started to be able to predict your next action. When we made that, then more accurate, then when we made that faster, then when we made that more ambitious, it could predict sequences of changes. And then when we let the AI model start to take more action within your code base and then do that really fast, speeding that up. And so all along the way we kind of just focused on making the product better. The compounding continued. And I don't think that this is true of all markets, but I think we're in a market where end user preferences matter a lot. And if you make the best thing people can about it and talk about it. And that kept going for a long time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og

Key Insights

• Vision shift: Despite Copilot’s lead, they aimed at re‑shaping software creation vs. incremental autocomplete 37 And I think we took a step back and realized that if we were being really consistent with our beliefs, there was going to be an opportunity for all of coding to change in the next five years and for all of software development to flow through models. And it felt like no one working on the space at the time was really taking that seriously. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og 25 Into code completion. Yeah, I think that. So we had been inspired by tools like Copilot really early on and we had avoided working on AI and coding because we thought it was too competitive, which is crazy then still is competitive. Now because back in 2022, GitHub Copilot was making already about 100 million revenue, I think. Or more. Potentially more. Yeah. And you guys are like, oh, we could still do a better job than GitHub Copilot because people thought the game was done. It's like GitHub. Well, I mean, we didn't think we could at the start and then, I think, you know, it was the desperation of having worked on ideas for a while and not really being excited about them after a while and them not really working out and that kind of shapes. I think what you care about and what you're aiming for. And we realized we were really inherently excited about the future of coding. I think also we got to see how some of the other people in the space were working on their products. We got to see how the tech was developing. And I think we took a step back and realized that if we were being really consistent with our beliefs, there was going to be an opportunity for all of coding to change in the next five years and for all of software development to flow through models. And it felt like no one working on the space at the time was really taking that seriously. It felt like they had great products and they were making them a bit better, but they weren't really aiming for a world where all of coding as we know it today gets automated and. And building software ends up looking very, very different. Then with that in mind, we set out to work on that. That was a bold move because you decided, okay, we're going to stop working on all these other ideas that we didn't have as much of a background. And you were excited about programming. Even though you had this big Goliath in the room with GitHub Copilot, you decided to go and let's just solve this problem. It didn't really feel bold or like you're gantling move at the time because it's like bunch of people sitting around in their living room on laptops. It's not pivoting some giant company. But yeah, no, we did. And initially we kind of waded into it where we were thinking, well, maybe we do this kind of very niche tool for basically security reviews, trying to detect future CVEs in your code. Or maybe we build something that's just for this one niche area of software. We thought about building for quants and actually prototypes and things just for quantitative researchers. But yeah, in doing that, we were just brimming with ideas for what Cursor could be if it were just about trying to be the best way to code with AI in general. And then I think that we just, we had a ton of conviction about that and we had a ton of excitement about that. And so at some point we just decided to go for it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og .
• Build vs. leverage: Started from scratch, then pragmatically based on VS Code to focus on AI features that matter 43 It did take us a little bit of time to ship something publicly. It took us roughly, I think, Three months from first line of code to open it up and ga it. Originally what we did is we built our own editor from scratch. Oh my God. It was still using a bunch of open source building blocks. There are a lot of great primitives like Codemirror and the language servers, and there's a lot of open source tech that can help you build an editor. But yeah, no, it was cobbled together from scratch. And there was our own version of remote ssh, our own copilot integration at the time because we didn't have anything like autocomplete. You have to build your own peen system, you have to build all your own language server integrations. There's just a lot that ends up going into something as developed as the code editor market, making something that can actually be competitive there and service someone's daily driver. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og 42 I think another thing we learned was we were very rapidly building a feature complete version of what we want in a normal code editor, plus then some AI stuff that we thought was great. But then a feature complete code editor for the world is going to be a way, way, way longer road. We thought that VS code had been developed over the course of 12 years, was one of the earliest typescript projects, had lots of people on it, thought, oh yeah, of course, you can kind of spin something up that's just equivalent for the world in a few months. And I think that we learned very rapidly that that wasn't the reality. And our time was going to be best spent just focused on the AI stuff. And so similar to how browsers often base themselves off of Chromium's rendering engine, we then switched to being based off of VS code. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og .
• Data flywheel: Off‑the‑shelf first, then proprietary models once scale/product data enabled clear gains (e.g., next‑action prediction) 34 And so we wanted to be as pragmatic as possible, not reinvent the wheel. And so we started by doing none of that. And then over the course of 2023, in dialing in the product, that ended up being a really important product lever, especially as we got to scale and we got a bunch of people using the product. And then that also gives you the ability to use product data to make the product better. And so that actually has been a really important muscle to build the company. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og 36 We're in this market where if you make the product better, you kind of see it in the numbers immediately where things start to grow more. And so we felt it around when we first started to make cursor code base aware, when we first started to be able to predict your next action. When we made that, then more accurate, then when we made that faster, then when we made that more ambitious, it could predict sequences of changes. And then when we let the AI model start to take more action within your code base and then do that really fast, speeding that up. And so all along the way we kind of just focused on making the product better. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og .
• Cost myth: Early code models like Codex reportedly trained for ~US$100k — much lower than many assume 33 One of the papers that we tout around is actually the original Codex paper because by our calculations, Codex, which was the first, this was the first autocomplete model behind GitHub Copilot. It didn't really cost that much money to train, even though even back then at kind of the beginning and middle of 2022, people were talking about how expensive AI models were to train. I think it cost, my math might be wrong, but I think it was about 100k in training costs. And then during this foray into mechanical engineering, we had done our own training and then when we set off on cursor, I think we were a little bit burned by that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og .

Recommendations & Resources

• Practical stack: Language servers, CodeMirror, and VS Code base for rapid iteration 27 It was still using a bunch of open source building blocks. There are a lot of great primitives like Codemirror and the language servers, and there's a lot of open source tech that can help you build an editor. But yeah, no, it was cobbled together from scratch. And there was our own version of remote ssh, our own copilot integration at the time because we didn't have anything like autocomplete. You have to build your own peen system, you have to build all your own language server integrations. There's just a lot that ends up going into something as developed as the code editor market, making something that can actually be competitive there and service someone's daily driver. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og 42 I think another thing we learned was we were very rapidly building a feature complete version of what we want in a normal code editor, plus then some AI stuff that we thought was great. But then a feature complete code editor for the world is going to be a way, way, way longer road. We thought that VS code had been developed over the course of 12 years, was one of the earliest typescript projects, had lots of people on it, thought, oh yeah, of course, you can kind of spin something up that's just equivalent for the world in a few months. And I think that we learned very rapidly that that wasn't the reality. And our time was going to be best spent just focused on the AI stuff. And so similar to how browsers often base themselves off of Chromium's rendering engine, we then switched to being based off of VS code. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og .
• Founder advice: Work on what excites you with people you respect; CS/programming remains foundational even as tooling evolves 29 I think just working on things that you're interested in and doing it with people both that you enjoy being around, but that you respect a ton and taking that really seriously. Yeah. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og 28 I mean, I think that programming, like math, is kind of just a good general education. I don't think that that goes away. And I think that there's also lots of practical skills that comes from studying computer science right now. I mean, often when people are kind of entering dynamic industries, the specific stuff that they study in school isn't super crucial. It's more the kind of learning that they get along the way, and I don't think that's changed with AI. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og .

Notable Quotes

“If we were being really consistent with our beliefs, there was going to be an opportunity for all of coding to change in the next five years…” 37 And I think we took a step back and realized that if we were being really consistent with our beliefs, there was going to be an opportunity for all of coding to change in the next five years and for all of software development to flow through models. And it felt like no one working on the space at the time was really taking that seriously. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og

“We just focused on making the product better. The compounding continued.” 35 The compounding continued. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXi3naD6Og

Must‑Listen Clip

Approx. 10:41–13:08 — Why they took on Copilot anyway and what it means to build for a world where software flows through models.

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a16z — Martin Casado with Jack Altman: the future of venture

Episode Overview

Title: Infra value, talent scarcity, and why VCs need platforms • Guest: Martin Casado (General Partner, a16z)

Casado argues the durable value in software accrues to infrastructure, not apps; the AI market is so large that talent is the binding constraint; and in an episodic media world, VCs need direct platforms to help portfolio companies break through. 76 In software, the true differentiation is, is technical. Right. You know, now there's of course brand stuff and business stuff, but like, you know, if you have two products, like it comes down to a technical problem and that almost always comes from the actual infrastructure that you know, that the software is built on. Right. So if, if I built like two, let's say dog walking apps, the fact that like it's got three or four features, like, you know, that's a very light differentiation, but like one being super fast, one being super slow, that's like an infrastructure. Yeah. The companies that provide infrastructure, I think ultimately they are the source of value, they are the source of differentiation. And so while there are fewer infrastructure companies, my bet, and this is my inflammatory opinion, is that they just have better multiples and they're more durable because they service everything above it, but they're the thing that provides it. And actually Sarah Wang, who is an investor on the Growth Engineer and I did a kind of relatively loosey goosey public market analysis where like what are the multiples of companies that are infrastructure versus apps and they just have higher multiples for this reason. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU 74 Well, in AI, it's even crazier than that, which is the market is so big and it's growing so fast. Even companies that seem like they're competing end up in totally different places just because so much white space is being created. But they're all competing. Totally different companies in spaces are competing for the same talent. So the first time I can remember where the actual talent competition is way more fierce than the market. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU 71 And so you get this kind of compendium and you build a brand over time. And it feels we're in an era now where it's just become so episodic that if you don't understand the current zeitgeist you just can't even get a voice at all. And by episodic, I mean like today GPT5 launched, right. It was massive. Like if you didn't know that that was going to happen, you would have been drowned out. And if you did know, you could draft on it. And then it just feels like for some launches they go, they're a big deal and then they just disappear forever. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU

Key Insights

• Infra > apps: Differentiation is technical and rooted in the stack; infra companies tend to command higher multiples and durability 62 In software, the true differentiation is, is technical. Right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU 76 In software, the true differentiation is, is technical. Right. You know, now there's of course brand stuff and business stuff, but like, you know, if you have two products, like it comes down to a technical problem and that almost always comes from the actual infrastructure that you know, that the software is built on. Right. So if, if I built like two, let's say dog walking apps, the fact that like it's got three or four features, like, you know, that's a very light differentiation, but like one being super fast, one being super slow, that's like an infrastructure. Yeah. The companies that provide infrastructure, I think ultimately they are the source of value, they are the source of differentiation. And so while there are fewer infrastructure companies, my bet, and this is my inflammatory opinion, is that they just have better multiples and they're more durable because they service everything above it, but they're the thing that provides it. And actually Sarah Wang, who is an investor on the Growth Engineer and I did a kind of relatively loosey goosey public market analysis where like what are the multiples of companies that are infrastructure versus apps and they just have higher multiples for this reason. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU .
• Market dynamic: AI creates white‑space where “competitors” diverge; talent competition is fiercer than market competition 74 Well, in AI, it's even crazier than that, which is the market is so big and it's growing so fast. Even companies that seem like they're competing end up in totally different places just because so much white space is being created. But they're all competing. Totally different companies in spaces are competing for the same talent. So the first time I can remember where the actual talent competition is way more fierce than the market. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU 70 It's also this happens when there's these large infrastructure buildouts. This happened with the cloud too, which is there are these moments in time where to build the system, you have to have experience with the system at scale. Right. This happened with the Internet, this happened with the big cloud data centers. And this is the case with AI, which is it's one thing to go to school and know AI and be a good researcher. It's another thing to have actually trained a very large model. You know, like maybe what. There's 30 teams that have ever done it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU .
• Media shift: Traditional press turned adversarial; VCs should build in‑house platforms to support launches and messaging 81 One of them is the traditional media just turned on tech and it hates tech. Right. And so in the past, when I was a founder, to get a lukewarm to positive article is pretty straightforward. And the VCs would help with that. Like, you know, they would know a few reporters. It was very easy, but now it's actually very dangerous because, like, you go talk to them and like, who knows what they're going to say. And so in a way, like, if you want to help a portfolio, you do want to build a bit of a platform, you do have to go straight. So I think that's one thing that's changed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU 79 And so you get this kind of compendium and you build a brand over time. And it feels we're in an era now where it's just become so episodic that if you don't understand the current zeitgeist you just can't even get a voice at all. And by episodic, I mean like today GPT5 launched, right. It was massive. Like if you didn't know that that was going to happen, you would have been drowned out. And if you did know, you could draft on it. And then it just feels like for some launches they go, they're a big deal and then they just disappear forever. So I just. So much of the nature of how we consume and think about content has changed and so I do think that venture capitalists one, they need to like, if they have a message they want to get out, they kind of have to go direct because I mean if it's your own platform, it doesn't hate you. That's one. But then also to help your portfolio company, I think you need to build an in house capability so they can know how to most effectively message. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU .
• Early AI bets: When TAM is unknowable, back the best teams over neat spreadsheets 67 The thing that's harder is, and I've evolved so much as an investor, I used to think like, oh, we get good deals, price matters, outcome matters, TAM matters and more and more, especially with AI, that's what you have to throw away. The market is the market and that's. What matters the most. You're saying it doesn't matter at all? I'm saying so we don't know what the TAM is because it's growing so fast. Nobody knows valuation. So I think this is contrary to common belief. I think in these times where you don't know the TAM and things are moving quickly, you definitely want to pick the best team. You definitely want to pick the best team. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU .

Recommendations & Resources

• Operating posture: Specialize as markets scale; build portfolio‑wide distribution channels to accelerate go‑to‑market 77 And so as the market grows, clearly you have to specialize. And so when I joined, we were all generalists often that hated our own disciplines because, you know, we've kind of been through it. Can I see a question or something? Yeah, yeah, of course, yeah. Do you have to. Do you have to become specialists as the market grows or as the firm grows? In other words, is the specialization choice downstream from growing the firm, or do you think it's downstream from the market growing? I think it's ultimately the function of the market, and I'll describe why. So if you believe that this stuff is competitive, which I do, then you need to end up with a product that is competitive. And because it's adaptively competitive, like, let's say you've got two firms that are competing, you're always going to be looking at what the weakness of the other one is. And so, like, for example, if a certain firm can't do seed, then of course, you know, you'll want to do seed. Or if they can't do large checks, you want to do large checks. What happens is everybody ends up getting as many products as they can so that they don't have any weaknesses, which will naturally happen. Now you can only do that if the market is large enough. And so now you have a high aum, Right. You've got a lot of products. I've got a growth fund, I've got a seed fund, I've got a venture fund. And then you have to ask the question of how do you scale that? And venture was not built to scale. And I think this is why we've seen the industry go this way, which is the market has increased a lot. Funds want to be competitive. In order to be competitive, they have to find out what products that they offer that are actually competitive. This drives to higher ium and as a result you know, you have the specialization when you're. No, that just, just that said so, so but there's also kind of this internal thing which is assuming that you want to scale aom independent of the market, you have to solve this problem because you just can't scale like a consensus org of generalists. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU 49 I think that the prime, the primary reason to create a distribution channel as a VC is so the portfolio can get out there and reach to people. This is very hard what we do. It's not because like whatever, Martin needs to be famous or Martin needs a brand, like that doesn't really matter. That never comes up in like a closing situation. I mean, I've done. Yeah. So many deals. Right. That's never been a thing. But I do feel that a number of our companies, you know, once they're ready to launch, you know, we can provide a benefit. And so I think that is ultimately the benefit to the portfolio. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU .
• Ecosystem health: Defend open source to avoid monopolies and enable broad innovation 73 So I think open Source is historically one of the best mechanisms that shows a healthy ecosystem. Right. And what normally happens is somebody does something closed source, it turns out to create a market and then somebody releases open source and it stops a monopoly from forming and enables everybody else and then it kind of keeps the people that are closed source to continue to be innovators and allows everybody else to come in. So it's just been very, very healthy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU 72 Of course, the national security implications are pretty straightforward, which is like if somebody else does the open source, it proliferates and that's not good for US interest, but for the industry it's terrible. Right? I mean this is kind of how you actually create monopolies if you're not allowed to create something that enables everybody else. And again, it was very dramatic when the node close was like open source is bad and founders fund is like open source is bad. And you had academics saying open source is bad. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU .

Notable Quotes

“In software, the true differentiation is technical.” 62 In software, the true differentiation is, is technical. Right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU

“The market is so big and it’s growing so fast.” 64 The market is so big and it's growing so fast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XgSfhj-LQU

Must‑Listen Clip

Approx. 15:15–16:56 — Why infrastructure captures value across platform shifts and how that shapes investment theses.

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Theo (t3.gg) — I finally get how SVGs work

Episode Overview

Title: SVG demystified: viewBox, strokes, and “self‑drawing” animations • Host: Theo

A developer‑to‑developer walkthrough of SVG as a first‑class DOM citizen: why inline SVG unlocks CSS/JS power, how viewBox scaling works, and how to animate strokes and “draw” paths precisely with getTotalLength(). 90 The really cool thing is that SVGs are first class citizens in the DOM. We can use CSS and JavaScript to select and modify SVG nodes as if they were HTML elements. Here's an example of that. We can focus or tap the element, and when we do that, the CSS applies to the pieces of the svg. So we fill the circle with hot pink so we don't even have to put the color there. And then on hover or focus visible, we make it bigger and we move the position. We could also change the fill to be red and it'll change. Isn't that cool? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY 89 Fortunately, there's a better way. View box. Nice. The viewbox attribute defines an internal coordinate system. When it's provided, our circles and recs and polygons will stop inheriting the raw pixel values from the DOM and instead they'll use the internal coordinate system. This is XY1, this is XY2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY 86 We can use JavaScript to calculate it. We select the polygon path length. This element get totallength. This is the magical method to get said circumference. And then we set the stroke dash array to path length comma some arbitrarily large value. This is the ideal solution to the problem since it gives us the precise length. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY

Key Insights

• Inline SVG: Treat shapes like DOM nodes; style/animate with CSS transitions and JavaScript 90 The really cool thing is that SVGs are first class citizens in the DOM. We can use CSS and JavaScript to select and modify SVG nodes as if they were HTML elements. Here's an example of that. We can focus or tap the element, and when we do that, the CSS applies to the pieces of the svg. So we fill the circle with hot pink so we don't even have to put the color there. And then on hover or focus visible, we make it bigger and we move the position. We could also change the fill to be red and it'll change. Isn't that cool? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY 82 Many SVG attributes like the circle's color and radius moonlight as CSS properties. That means I can change them in CSS and even use CSS transitions to animate them. This is what makes SVG so powerful. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY .
• viewBox mental model: It defines the internal coordinate system/zoom on an infinite canvas 88 One interesting difference between HTML documents and SVG illustrations is that SVGs don't have edges. In theory, they extend in every direction by an infinite amount. There's nothing stopping us from placing a shape 1 million pixels away from the origin point in any direction. The view box decides which part of this infinite field we're looking at. Let's talk about the second pair of values used for the viewbox. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY 84 In the Demo above, our SVG is 300 by 300. If we set the view box to 00300300, we have a perfect one to one. If we do 00150150, the SVG is still 300 pixels by 300 pixels, but it's only displaying the 150, 150 zone area of the SVG canvas. I like this analogy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY .
• Stroke magic: Use stroke‑dasharray/offset to animate; measure exact path length via element.getTotalLength(); pathLength can remap scales 87 Finally, the most famous trick is to create an illusion of an SVG drawing itself. Always been curious how this one works. The clever trick here is that we have a single dash that is the same length as the entire circumference of our shape.763 pixels in this particular case, and a huge gap between Each dash we draw the shape by sliding this dash into place by animating the stroke dash offset. Interesting. That's actually really cool because the dash offset starts before the dash starts. This doesn't render even though the dash is super long, but when we click draw it sets the dash offset to zero and the animation moves the path into frame effectively which causes it to appear. Very cool stuff. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY 86 We can use JavaScript to calculate it. We select the polygon path length. This element get totallength. This is the magical method to get said circumference. And then we set the stroke dash array to path length comma some arbitrarily large value. This is the ideal solution to the problem since it gives us the precise length. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY 85 You can also manually override it apparently several readers had reached out to Josh to point out the existence of the path length attribute. The attribute lets you specify an override for path length. So here we have it set to 100. When we define path length, we're essentially creating our own scale for the path. The polygon still has an actual path length of 763, but we're redefining it as 100. The browser will do the work behind the scenes to scale everything up, but in our CSS we can act like the full circumference is 100. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY .

Recommendations & Resources

• Workflow: Prefer readable SVG formatting (gzip neutral) and playgrounds to visualize viewBox and strokes 83 Yes, in the past this sort of optimization could make a small but significant difference in performance of our websites and web apps. But these days web servers use gzip compression, which means that a few extra commas and new lines won't really affect the file size. So I'd strongly encourage you to add helpful formatting to your SVGs. Your users won't notice, but other devs on your team and your future self will benefit from readable SVGs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY 80 We're changing the view box as we move this around. So in 00, it's in that corner and the box is 200. 200. We can see the extra space there. This is a really, really good visualizer for explaining this. Good shit as always, Josh. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY .
• Deep‑dive: Josh Comio’s article/course on SVG and animation were the source materials highlighted 92 Thankfully, Josh Comio, the absolute legend, just put up an awesome article breaking down how SVGs actually work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY 91 He's working on a whole course about all of this, specifically animations. But SVGs are a huge part of it, of course, and once again, if you want to try it out, links in the description. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY .

Notable Quotes

“SVGs are scalable vector graphics… an incredible format that power so many things we use and love.” 78 SVGs are scalable vector graphics. They let you represent an infinitely high resolution or low resolution image with a very small amount of data. They're an incredible format that power so many things that we use and love every single day. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY

“Many SVG attributes … moonlight as CSS properties… This is what makes SVG so powerful.” 82 Many SVG attributes like the circle's color and radius moonlight as CSS properties. That means I can change them in CSS and even use CSS transitions to animate them. This is what makes SVG so powerful. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN--sGH97dY

Must‑Listen Clip

Approx. 26:23–27:25 — The stroke‑dasharray/offset “self‑drawing” trick, plus using getTotalLength() so your animation is pixel‑perfect.

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Culture & Curiosities

Chris Williamson — Esther Perel on men, intimacy, and the paradox of vulnerability

Episode Overview

Title: Masculinity’s paradoxes: closeness, pressure, and modern isolation • Guest: Esther Perel

Perel explains how vulnerability can initially bind couples yet later burden relationships, why male loneliness is a recent phenomenon, and how culture and evolution interact to shape how men relate and feel close. 126 So I totally agree that we are shaped by both, you know, but the interesting thing about your allusion to the man keeping or to the men having, relying primarily on their partner is that sometimes one of the paradoxes here is that he coming to her, confiding in her, opening himself up to her, letting him. You know, when a man opens up often in my office too, you know, it's not just that he's saying something that he has not said to others. He's often never even said it to himself. It's really beautiful and very moving. And so she, in the beginning looks at this and thinks, this is wonderful. I am the chosen one with whom he feels that comfortable, that open, that vulnerable, you know. So back to your thing that the very thing that is originally attractive can become the very source of conflict and disagreement later. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N9cLWI0uZg 123 You know, this notion of male loneliness and the phenomenon that we're talking about at this moment is fairly recent 19th century America, men had plenty of friends. You go to your islands all over the world. Men sit after they've finished fishing, they're talking to each other, they're schmoozing. They don't need to do personal, you know, expression of their deepest feelings to feel intimate and close. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N9cLWI0uZg 136 First of all, on, on the, on the, of evolutionary versus the cultural. I'm multilingual. I speak many languages and I speak that languages too. I can go back and forth between evolutionary language and cultural language. For me, the beauty is how they interact with each other, not which one has the supremacy over the other. Is it more cultural? Is it more evolutionary and biological? It's the, you know, you come in with a certain predisposition that is biological or innate, and then there is a culture that sits on top of it and responds to this versus that because this is the thing that stands out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N9cLWI0uZg

Key Insights

• Isolation metric: 51% of men lack a single confidant for emotional support 128 You know, 51% of men lack a single confidant for emotional support. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N9cLWI0uZg .
• Paradox: A man’s deep confiding can later turn into pressure on the partner (“therapist” role), creating conflict 126 So I totally agree that we are shaped by both, you know, but the interesting thing about your allusion to the man keeping or to the men having, relying primarily on their partner is that sometimes one of the paradoxes here is that he coming to her, confiding in her, opening himself up to her, letting him. You know, when a man opens up often in my office too, you know, it's not just that he's saying something that he has not said to others. He's often never even said it to himself. It's really beautiful and very moving. And so she, in the beginning looks at this and thinks, this is wonderful. I am the chosen one with whom he feels that comfortable, that open, that vulnerable, you know. So back to your thing that the very thing that is originally attractive can become the very source of conflict and disagreement later. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N9cLWI0uZg 125 So it's an interesting thing that what becomes man keeping later wasn't always experienced as man keeping in the beginning. Oh my God, he's so open with me. He's never said this to anybody before, of course. And that makes me very special. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N9cLWI0uZg .
• Multiple “languages” of intimacy: Men often bond through shared activity/ritual rather than verbal disclosure alone 119 Men sit after they've finished fishing, they're talking to each other, they're schmoozing. They don't need to do personal, you know, expression of their deepest feelings to feel intimate and close. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N9cLWI0uZg 123 You know, this notion of male loneliness and the phenomenon that we're talking about at this moment is fairly recent 19th century America, men had plenty of friends. You go to your islands all over the world. Men sit after they've finished fishing, they're talking to each other, they're schmoozing. They don't need to do personal, you know, expression of their deepest feelings to feel intimate and close. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N9cLWI0uZg .

Recommendations & Resources

• Spread the load: Broaden support networks beyond the romantic partner to reduce relational strain 132 You've got this shared family, and you're bringing these kids up, and I think, you know, to fly the flag for men. I think it's a difficult circle to square that men are told to sort of open up more and be emotionally vulnerable, but they have a limited bucket of people to be able to do that with. And the one that they can do it with is now feeling the pressure of, I have to be his therapist. I have to be his muse, I have to be his diva. I've got to be his housekeeper and his massage, you know, physical therapy. I gotta be all of these things and both sides again, again, as opposed to going, that's really tough. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N9cLWI0uZg .
• Rebuild rituals: Use communal, nonverbal bonding activities as valid avenues for closeness 110 Yeah, and go to the woods and get some rituals that toughen you up, that transition you from boy to man. I mean, there are very few of those rituals for women because they're biological. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N9cLWI0uZg 123 You know, this notion of male loneliness and the phenomenon that we're talking about at this moment is fairly recent 19th century America, men had plenty of friends. You go to your islands all over the world. Men sit after they've finished fishing, they're talking to each other, they're schmoozing. They don't need to do personal, you know, expression of their deepest feelings to feel intimate and close. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N9cLWI0uZg .

Notable Quotes

“Masculinity is often accompanied with a mandate … to prove itself constantly.” 121 And then you begin to pay attention that there's an entire apropos vocabulary. Man up. Show me your man. Be a man. I mean, masculinity is often accompanied with a mandate, with an imperative, with a thing that needs to prove itself constantly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N9cLWI0uZg

“It is hard to acquire and easy to lose.” 120 So I began to think masculinity is not nearly that simple, not nearly that obvious, maybe not nearly so easily acquired, actually. It is hard to acquire and easy to lose. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N9cLWI0uZg

Must‑Listen Clip

Approx. 03:34–04:34 — Perel breaks down the paradox of vulnerability: why the very thing that bonds a couple can later strain it.

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The Joe Rogan Experience — Ben van Kerkwyk (UnchartedX): Egypt’s labyrinth and precision vases

Episode Overview

Title: The Hawara labyrinth and a 40‑meter mystery • Guest: Ben van Kerkwyk

Ben synthesizes classical sources and modern scans pointing to a vast multi‑level labyrinth under Hawara. He also reviews measurements on pre‑dynastic hard‑stone vases showing remarkable tolerances and preliminary materials analyses that challenge simple tool models. 8 So how did you find out about the labyrinths? This is something that has been talked about for a long time, Long time, thousands of years. Yeah, but no one, it's not in any like traditional archeology books. It's not, is it? Yeah, yeah, no, it is. So the labyrinth is kind of. This is the other part that drew me to it is that it isn't something that's coming out of left field. Right. It's not like this. Oh, no one ever heard of this before. It's literally a structure that was written about extensively over hundreds of years in antiquity by authors like Herodotus, Diodorus, Siculus, Pliny the Elder, Strabo, Polonius, Mellor. Like there's all of these writers of antiquity and you're talking about time frames from like 500 BC up to the first century AD had visited it and they'd written about it and talked about it and they gave it this legend. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ 18 So they used a whole bunch of different techniques to look at these areas around that pyramid at the site of Huara. Things like ground penetrating radar, geomagnetism, very low frequency, like seismic tomography, electrical resistivity tomography. There's a bunch of different techniques that are well established, known science. This isn't like the Kafr Escan stuff, which, like, you can debate the merits of the technology. This is established technology. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ 9 And basically they're coming back with precision in terms of circularity, flatness, like centering, numbers that are very much equate to some of the best industrial processes that we do today in things like aerospace industry. So where it's really important to be within two or three or four thousandths of an inch of perfection for the parts we make for jet engines or rocket engines. Those are the numbers that we're seeing come back on a lot of these vessels, not all of them. Again, like, I don't want to say this is true for all of them. It's not. It's true for a lot of them though. And this is again, these are levels of precision that are not visible to the naked eye. I mean, you're talking human hair, like a sheet of printer paper is like six or seven thousandths of an inch thick. A human hair is two to three or four thousandths thick. And you're seeing sometimes tolerances even lower than that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ

Key Insights

• Classical to modern: Herodotus and others wrote extensively about the labyrinth; recent GPR/VLF and related surveys report subsurface walls/chambers consistent with a multi‑level complex 11 It's literally a structure that was written about extensively over hundreds of years in antiquity by authors like Herodotus, Diodorus, Siculus, Pliny the Elder, Strabo, Polonius, Mellor. Like there's all of these writers of antiquity and you're talking about time frames from like 500 BC up to the first century AD had visited it and they'd written about it and talked about it and they gave it this legend. Guys like Herodotus said that it surpasses the pyramids in grandeur. And then you have. Yeah, so this is the, this is from Herodotus histories in the 5th century BC and he says, for this I saw myself and I found it greater than words can say. For if one should put together and reckon up all the buildings and all of the great works produced by the Hellenes, the Greeks, they would prove to be inferior in labor and expense to this labyrinth. So he's saying that all of the temples of the Greeks of ancient Greece, you've been there, you've seen the Acropolis, and just if you added them all up, the labor to produce them would be inferior in what it would take to just make this one thing in Egypt, the labyrinth that is underground, that's underground. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ 18 So they used a whole bunch of different techniques to look at these areas around that pyramid at the site of Huara. Things like ground penetrating radar, geomagnetism, very low frequency, like seismic tomography, electrical resistivity tomography. There's a bunch of different techniques that are well established, known science. This isn't like the Kafr Escan stuff, which, like, you can debate the merits of the technology. This is established technology. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ 17 So, yeah, so this is at 8 meters with VLF sounding. So you can see like this labyrinthine structure of these walls and all of these lines and walls. These are like granite. And the scale of this, it's 100 meters vertically by 150 meters. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ .
• Central object claim: A ~40‑meter object in the atrium reads metallic to scanner operators; material unclassified in preliminary interpretations 20 There appears to be a 40 meter long metallic tic Tac shaped object. How. How deep into the ground? It's in that. So it's in the central atrium which we'll get into what that is, but somewhere in the realm of 60, 70 meters. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ 19 My personal interpretation is that this entire hall was constructed to house a centrally positioned freestanding object about 40 meters long. The central object is hard to classify. It appears metallic, not stone or wood. I named it Dippy after the giant Diplodocus skeleton in the Hintsy hall of London's. Is that, Did I say that right? Yeah, hints, I think. Hints. Hall of London's Natural History Museum. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ 10 But it's definitely, it's not wood, it's not stone, it's metal. It's not unlike other metal that he's seen, although they couldn't classify what exact type of metal it is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ .
• Precision vases: Scans find tolerances comparable to modern aerospace parts (thousandths of an inch), often in pre‑dynastic contexts 9 And basically they're coming back with precision in terms of circularity, flatness, like centering, numbers that are very much equate to some of the best industrial processes that we do today in things like aerospace industry. So where it's really important to be within two or three or four thousandths of an inch of perfection for the parts we make for jet engines or rocket engines. Those are the numbers that we're seeing come back on a lot of these vessels, not all of them. Again, like, I don't want to say this is true for all of them. It's not. It's true for a lot of them though. And this is again, these are levels of precision that are not visible to the naked eye. I mean, you're talking human hair, like a sheet of printer paper is like six or seven thousandths of an inch thick. A human hair is two to three or four thousandths thick. And you're seeing sometimes tolerances even lower than that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ 5 So, yeah, the vases go back to pre dynastic times. It's, it's, there's no debate that these are pre dynastic. They predate what we would call the dynastic civilization. And over the last few years they've, we've been starting to analyze them. We, the vase scan team, various groups of people now have been scanning these with modern technology. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ .
• Materials puzzles: SEM spots no copper residues in certain grooves (contrary to copper‑plus‑sand models); some traces of other metals and radioisotope anomalies were reported preliminarily 14 You should find traces of copper or whatever that material was in there. We looked at, we spent days looking at several pieces. 00 copper. Like not. Didn't find any copper. Nothing at all. The nice scanning electron microscope, not only do you get the magnification, but you can focus a beam of electrons onto a particular spot. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ 13 Titanium and titanium alloys with iron. We found iron, zinc, tin, zirconium alloys. Yeah, titanium. And it's not. We've. Yes. So yeah. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ 12 And it turns out the precision vases are radioactive. They're. They're two to three. He's tested several relative to the base rock samples and the non precision vases they have two to three times the thorium decay products in them. Them all of them so far. And in fact that piece right there has, he said has a, the quartz piece or the crystal piece has a notable Cesium 137 signature in it as well. So that's an interesting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ .

Recommendations & Resources

• Next steps: Expand non‑invasive surveys; pursue controlled, peer‑reviewed materials testing of museum‑provenanced vases (chain of custody) 16 But when they did those, the geophysical, like the, the ground penetrating radar scan. So they scanned two areas that was the bigger one, like in front of the pyramid. Then they did another one on the other side of the canal that runs through the site today. And they found, they found it on both sides. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ 4 Adam Young, who started this whole thing, who owns. He actually, this is his copy of his vase. They've been in now four museums around the world. We've scanned close to 100 vessels from inside of museums with impeccable provenance. Those results are starting to come out. They're matching the results that we found so far. So the provenance thing is kind of. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ .
• Preservation: Rising groundwater threatens upper levels; lower levels may be dry—consider remediation wells or tunneling to reach them 15 I just think it would be the biggest discovery of the millennium, which is part of the problem, because I think, unfortunately, in Egypt, and this is just my intuition and my sort of read of the situation, what's happened is the reality is the groundwater level is rising, right? So it's kind of attacking that part of the site at least. The higher levels of the labyrinth for sure are suffering in this salty groundwater. Right? It is gonna slowly erode because that groundwater's come way up. We know it's come way up because Flinders Petrie back in the, you know, late 18th, early 19th century actually got in to under the pyramid. And you can't today, if you go to that pyramid, there is a passage you can go down. You go down a few steps and just throw a pebble. It's just water and debris and mud. So this water table has risen so slowly over. No, since the 1960s, since they built the dam. So it's the High Dam. So what happened? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ 7 And I think you'd have to start digging like remediation wells, put in pumps and just try and pump that down. If not canal and trench that whole thing out like a massive site. And then you can start to worry about, all right, we're going to get some dirt out and start to excavate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ 6 So it's just like shallow groundwater. And once you get into the bedrock and it's like it's not a porous stone or whatever's underneath, just the top level sediment. It seems like it, you know, Tim Aker said it looks like it's free of water. So the very bottom layers seem to be free of it. So the actual labyrinth, very bottom layers. The labyrinth is multiple levels at least. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ .

Notable Quotes

“There appears to be a 40 meter long metallic tic‑tac shaped object.” 3 There appears to be a 40 meter long metallic tic Tac shaped object. How. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ

“The labyrinth is the biggest archaeological discovery of the millennium.” 2 There's an amazing, amazing find that, that could change the world, in my opinion. Honestly, the labyrinth is the biggest archaeological discovery of the millennium. When we get into what that structure is and how big it is and the way it's reported in antiquity, there's nothing bigger than Herodotus says it surpasses the pyramids. Like, it's like finding more geese, like a Giza plateau somewhere, like under the ground. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVGNkSk5CQ

Must‑Listen Clip

Approx. 39:09–42:11 — How precision vases imply multi‑axis machining or a single‑tool process, and why simple lathe explanations struggle with the handle geometry.

AI & The Future of Development

This week, conversations centered on the rapid evolution from simple AI tools to sophisticated, goal-oriented agents that are reshaping software development, media, and user interaction.

The Future of Agentic Coding with Claude Code

Episode Overview In this chat from Anthropic 158 Today we're going to be talking about cloud code and the future of software engineering. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk , host Alex 157 Hey, I'm Alex. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk 156 I lead cloud relations here at Anthropic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk sits down with Boris, the creator of Claude Code 155 I'm Boris. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk 154 I'm member of technical staff here at Anthropic and creator of cloud code. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk , to unpack the seismic shift in software engineering. They explore how developers are moving from directly writing text in an IDE to supervising AI agents that handle the coding, a change made possible by both better models and the crucial “harness” or scaffolding built around them 140 Yeah. A year ago, coding was totally different than what it is today. A year ago, if you want to write code, you have an ide, you have some sort of autocomplete in the ide, and then there's some sort of chat app and you might copy and paste code back and forth a little bit. And that was the state of the art, that was AI in coding. And I think maybe sometime around a year ago, we started to see agents appear as a thing that people earnestly use in coding. It's like a part of the workflow. It's not like a gimmick or a prototype. It's actually part of the inner loop when you're doing dev. And I think this is the thing that's changed the most in the last year is now when you code, you use an agent, you don't directly manipulate text in IDE anymore. It's not just about tab, it's about the model writing code for you. And I think what we've started to see is the shift from directly manipulating text to having the model do the text manipulation for you. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk 139 And people have tried to make AI do coding for the longest time and to just automate more and more of coding in various ways, and it hasn't really worked, I think probably for a couple reasons. One is the models weren't really good enough, and. And the second one is that the scaffolding, the thing on top of the model, wasn't good enough. And when we initially launched quadcode, the very, very first versions late last year, I think this is still using Sonnet 3.5. This wasn't even 3.6, or whatever we call this thing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk .

Key Insights

• Agents Are the New Workflow: The core of development is no longer just text editing; it’s about directing an agent that has become part of the developer’s “inner loop” 152 And I think maybe sometime around a year ago, we started to see agents appear as a thing that people earnestly use in coding. It's like a part of the workflow. It's not like a gimmick or a prototype. It's actually part of the inner loop when you're doing dev. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk 153 And I think this is the thing that's changed the most in the last year is now when you code, you use an agent, you don't directly manipulate text in IDE anymore. It's not just about tab, it's about the model writing code for you. And I think what we've started to see is the shift from directly manipulating text to having the model do the text manipulation for you. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk .
• The Harness Matters Most: The scaffolding around the model—like context management, tools, and permissions—is just as critical as the model’s intelligence itself. As the hosts put it, Claude is the horse, and the product is the saddle 151 It's sort of like if you're riding a horse, you need some sort of saddle, and that saddle makes a giant difference when you're riding a horse. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk 150 I mean, it is kind of like Claude is the horse, and as the engineer, you're trying to get it to go in a certain direction, and you're trying to guide it, and you need some sort of scaffolding around it to be able to steer it correctly. And the harness in this case. So we're on the same page, is everything from the tools we're giving it to how we handle the context and everything for the model. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk .
• “Vibe Checks” Over Evals: For complex, real-world tools, simply using the product for daily work (“dogfooding”) often provides a better signal of improvement than formal, synthetic evaluations 149 We tried really hard when building qloud code to build product evals just to have some sort of benchmark when we change a system prompt or whatever. Is the model getting better and we have a little bit of this. But honestly, it's just so hard to build evals. And by far the biggest signal is just the vibes. Does it feel smarter because there's such a broad range of tasks they use it for? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk 148 When you're evaluating a new model, do you kind of have a vibe check set of tests that you run, or if it's a new feature that we're rolling out to make something better in the harness, how do you personally evaluate if the performance is getting better? I just do my work that day. Interesting. Yeah, my perfect day is I'm just coding all day and whatever the model is whatever is the new thing we're testing. I'll just code using that and see what the pipe is. There isn't a specific thing I do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk .
• Code is Less “Precious”: With agents that can rewrite code effortlessly, the focus shifts from perfecting the initial implementation to rapidly building and iterating on ideas 142 So with coding agents, it makes it really easy to get started. And if you have an idea, you can just build it. And it's a lot more about the idea now than it is about the details, because just like cloud code, you can rewrite the code over and over. Cloud code itself, we rewrite all the time. And I think this is just something that coding agents enable. The code itself is no longer precious, and there's still an art to writing it. And I'll still code by hand sometimes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk .

Recommendations & Resources

• Onboard by Asking Questions First: Boris advises new users to start by using Claude Code to ask questions about a codebase, not to write code. This helps build a mental model of how the agent explores and understands the repository before you delegate tasks to it 147 So one thing I recommend is that if you're brand new to Claud code and you haven't used it before, don't use it to write code. I know it sounds crazy. Explain, explain. But you got to stop yourself. Don't use it to write code yet. The thing to start with is use it to ask questions about the code base. You can ask, if I want to add a new logger, how do I do that? And Then ask cloud code to explore the code base and figure it out for you. Or why is this function designed the way that it is? Quad code can go in and it can look through git history and it can answer this stuff for you. So I think ask Quad code questions about the code base and just don't code yet. Then once you feel comfortable with using Quad code this way, and you get comfortable with this idea of an agent that's doing this research for you, then start to use it to code. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk .
• Use a Task-Based Workflow: Classify coding tasks as easy, medium, or hard. Let the agent handle easy tasks in one shot, use “plan mode” for medium tasks to align on a strategy before execution, and pair-program with the agent for hard tasks where you remain in control 145 So for something that's really easy, in my mind I have these three categories, easy, medium and hard. Very roughly. And so easy tasks are something that Claude can write in one shot, like one prompt. It'll get it pretty much right. And nowadays I'll just go to GitHub and I'll tag OD on an issue and just have Claude write the PR for me. And this is how I do easy tasks because that frees up my terminal, I don't have to kind of spend it on this medium tasks. I'll start in the terminal and I'll start in plan mode. So just shift tab into plan and I'll align on a plan with Quad first and then once I feel good about the plan, I'll go into auto accept and I'll have it implemented. And then for really hard tasks, I'm still the one driving and quad is more of a tool and I'm kind of pairing with it. But really I'm the one in the driver's seat, not Quad for this. And so I'll use quad maybe to do some code based research, maybe prototype a few ideas. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk 144 And so easy tasks are something that Claude can write in one shot, like one prompt. It'll get it pretty much right. And nowadays I'll just go to GitHub and I'll tag OD on an issue and just have Claude write the PR for me. And this is how I do easy tasks because that frees up my terminal, I don't have to kind of spend it on this medium tasks. I'll start in the terminal and I'll start in plan mode. So just shift tab into plan and I'll align on a plan with Quad first and then once I feel good about the plan, I'll go into auto accept and I'll have it implemented. And then for really hard tasks, I'm still the one driving and quad is more of a tool and I'm kind of pairing with it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk .
• Leverage Extension Points: Customize your workflow by using features like QuantumD files for repo-specific context, and create reusable slash-commands for common tasks like writing standardized git commits 146 So originally, the way to hack Claud code is adding to its QuantumD. That was the original extension point. And QuantumD, as you know, is like this file. You can put it in the root directory, you can put it in child directories. There's kind of different places you can put it, and it's just additional context to give qaqode. And it kind of goes with your repo. You often check it into your code base. So it's kind of, you know, a little bit More information about the code. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk 141 And now there's slash commands and subagents and user defined slash commands is something we've invested in a lot of. And the idea is it's just a workflow. It's like a markdown file. You put it in your code and it's something that you can reuse a lot. So for example, I have a slash command for making commits and I have some instructions in there. Here's how you write a good git commit. I pre allow the git commit bash command. So I don't have to accept it every time and the model can just do it. So I think slash commands are really interesting and agents are kind of a different view of slash commands. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk .

Notable Quotes

“When you code, you use an agent, you don’t directly manipulate text in IDE anymore.” 153 And I think this is the thing that's changed the most in the last year is now when you code, you use an agent, you don't directly manipulate text in IDE anymore. It's not just about tab, it's about the model writing code for you. And I think what we've started to see is the shift from directly manipulating text to having the model do the text manipulation for you. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk

“Don’t use it to write code yet… The thing to start with is use it to ask questions about the code base.” 143 So one thing I recommend is that if you're brand new to Claud code and you haven't used it before, don't use it to write code. I know it sounds crazy. Explain, explain. But you got to stop yourself. Don't use it to write code yet. The thing to start with is use it to ask questions about the code base. You can ask, if I want to add a new logger, how do I do that? And Then ask cloud code to explore the code base and figure it out for you. Or why is this function designed the way that it is? Quad code can go in and it can look through git history and it can answer this stuff for you. So I think ask Quad code questions about the code base and just don't code yet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk

Must-Listen Clip

Why it’s a must-listen: This segment provides a concise, actionable playbook for adopting agentic coding workflows. Boris explains how to start with low-risk exploration, classify tasks by difficulty, and use specific modes like “plan” and “auto-accept” to effectively delegate work to the AI. It’s a practical guide that can change how any developer approaches their work today 147 So one thing I recommend is that if you're brand new to Claud code and you haven't used it before, don't use it to write code. I know it sounds crazy. Explain, explain. But you got to stop yourself. Don't use it to write code yet. The thing to start with is use it to ask questions about the code base. You can ask, if I want to add a new logger, how do I do that? And Then ask cloud code to explore the code base and figure it out for you. Or why is this function designed the way that it is? Quad code can go in and it can look through git history and it can answer this stuff for you. So I think ask Quad code questions about the code base and just don't code yet. Then once you feel comfortable with using Quad code this way, and you get comfortable with this idea of an agent that's doing this research for you, then start to use it to code. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk 138 So for something that's really easy, in my mind I have these three categories, easy, medium and hard. Very roughly. And so easy tasks are something that Claude can write in one shot, like one prompt. It'll get it pretty much right. And nowadays I'll just go to GitHub and I'll tag OD on an issue and just have Claude write the PR for me. And this is how I do easy tasks because that frees up my terminal, I don't have to kind of spend it on this medium tasks. I'll start in the terminal and I'll start in plan mode. So just shift tab into plan and I'll align on a plan with Quad first and then once I feel good about the plan, I'll go into auto accept and I'll have it implemented. And then for really hard tasks, I'm still the one driving and quad is more of a tool and I'm kind of pairing with it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF9iV4xponk .

Substack Cofounder on AI Slop & The Future of Media

Episode Overview On the a16z podcast, Substack cofounder Chris Best discusses his vision for building a new “economic engine for culture” 123 I would say that we started from the very beginning with this, I think a very ambitious, some might say derangedly ambitious vision. Again, the backdrop was kind of, we think that the Internet has massively reshaped the economic incentives for media and actually the origin of the company, I'll just briefly tell us, because it's Germane here was I was taking some time off at my last startup, and I'd always wanted to be a writer. I'd always been an avid reader. I've thought that what you read matters and, you know, so it's not what you read. The media you consume is not just a way you spend your life. It changes who you are, it changes who you are as an individual. It changes how you see the world, and it changes cultures and societies. And so great writing, great media, great culture in general is this inherently valuable thing. And my first instinct was I should make some of that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc . He reflects on Substack’s crucial role during the media upheaval of 2020 122 Yeah, I think the impact is truly understated. And I think we've moved so fast as a country and as an Internet and as a world in the last few years that we've sort of memory holed what it was like in 2020, 2021, but particularly for media, how crazy the 2020 moment was for anyone in the thought leadership space, anyone in the media space. So let me just go back to the summer of 2020. James Bennett, who was the editor of the op ed page at the New York Times, was forced to resign for publishing a sitting senator, an op ed by a sitting senator who is still in office. The craziness that was around writing anything that was seen as heretical or asking questions or something that was seen as unorthodox. In 2020, there were mass firings. Twitter deplatformed a sitting president. Facebook as well. It was an extraordinary time and say, a fearful time where very many people were afraid to say what they were thinking. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc and charts a course for a future where technology can either degrade culture with addictive “AI slop” or elevate it with meaningful, long-form content that makes people better 118 I wrote this piece called the Two Futures of Media, where I kind of argue, I think inevitably when you ask these questions, you get into sort of like weird philosophical questions like what is the purpose of media and what are we doing here? And I think that one of the purposes of media is to entertain, to have some effect. Like. And people use. The extreme way to say this is people use media like a drug, right? I'm going to sit there, I'm going to scroll this thing, I'm going to watch this thing. It's going to have some effect on me in the moment. That's going to create a pleasant feeling. And that's like one of the things that I want from it. And I think that that side of media is going to get supercharged. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc 117 And so if we can take kind of like the good and interesting and culture laden future of media and make it really good and make it really compelling and have people make money from it when they make something truly great and have people realize that, you know, I aspire that the substack app could be a place where you, you look back at the time you spend on it and think, damn, I'm glad I did that. That made me a better person. That made me more interesting. And I think that that is possible and that if we. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc .

Key Insights

• Two Futures of Media: Technology is supercharging two paths. One is an addictive, drug-like media future designed for momentary pleasure that ultimately degrades the consumer 118 I wrote this piece called the Two Futures of Media, where I kind of argue, I think inevitably when you ask these questions, you get into sort of like weird philosophical questions like what is the purpose of media and what are we doing here? And I think that one of the purposes of media is to entertain, to have some effect. Like. And people use. The extreme way to say this is people use media like a drug, right? I'm going to sit there, I'm going to scroll this thing, I'm going to watch this thing. It's going to have some effect on me in the moment. That's going to create a pleasant feeling. And that's like one of the things that I want from it. And I think that that side of media is going to get supercharged. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc . The other is a culture-building future that helps people become who they want to be. Substack aims to make the second path just as compelling as the first 106 And I think that the same technologies that are making the first thing much more compelling can make that second thing much more compelling as well. And the thing that I think we can do at Substack is to create a version of that thing that is also fun and is also good and is also empowering. And you don't have to kind of be like, I don't want to. You have to be like a monk to use substack. You're like, well, I could scroll TikTok or I could go to the library and flip through some microfiche and it's like, yeah, you could do that, but nobody's actually going to do that. And so if we can take kind of like the good and interesting and culture laden future of media and make it really good and make it really compelling and have people make money from it when they make something truly great and have people realize that, you know, I aspire that the substack app could be a place where you, you look back at the time you spend on it and think, damn, I'm glad I did that. That made me a better person. That made me more interesting. And I think that that is possible and that if we. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc .
• Direct Connection Enables Creative Risk: The subscription model and direct audience connection (like an email list) give creators the power to override algorithms. They can take creative risks on projects that might not please an algorithm but are deeply valued by their trusted audience 110 But I would say I think there's something even more important about the direct connection, which is it's not just that I can leave, it's that in my mind, like, what a subscription is, is the option to give someone to, like, reach out and tap you on the shoulder is to say, if you want to, you don't have to send me an email all the time if you don't want to. But if you want to send me an email, if you want to send me a push notification, if you want to show up at the top of my inbox, I kind of, like, give you that. Right? And something that, that lets you do as a. As a writer or as a creator is to take creative risk. Something that I hear a lot from YouTubers is people who are very good at YouTube, people have massive followings, who are very successful, who say, I have this idea for a thing that I could make, and I know that it would be great, and I know there's an audience out there who would like it, but I can't make it because if I made it the way that I want to make it, no one's going to see it because it doesn't please the algorithm. And so the direct connection, in addition to being this way, you can bring your audience with you is. Is a way to give humans the power to override the algorithm and say, hey, I've got this trust relationship with my audience. I want to exercise it and go out on a limb and say, hey, I want to call in that favor and have you pay attention to this thing that I'm saying is good. And sometimes it might be bad and you might unsubscribe, but sometimes it might be great, and it might be something great that could not have existed if the only way to reach everyone was to kind of like, please the algorithm every single time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc 109 Something that I hear a lot from YouTubers is people who are very good at YouTube, people have massive followings, who are very successful, who say, I have this idea for a thing that I could make, and I know that it would be great, and I know there's an audience out there who would like it, but I can't make it because if I made it the way that I want to make it, no one's going to see it because it doesn't please the algorithm. And so the direct connection, in addition to being this way, you can bring your audience with you is. Is a way to give humans the power to override the algorithm and say, hey, I've got this trust relationship with my audience. I want to exercise it and go out on a limb and say, hey, I want to call in that favor and have you pay attention to this thing that I'm saying is good. And sometimes it might be bad and you might unsubscribe, but sometimes it might be great, and it might be something great that could not have existed if the only way to reach everyone was to kind of like, please the algorithm every single time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc .
• Attention is Scarce, Good Content is Rarer: In an era where boredom has been eliminated, the real scarcity isn’t content—it’s good content worth paying for. The fundamental insight of Substack is that people will pay to get better culture, ideas, and use of their time 108 But, but the way, the way, the thing you're describing and the way I, I, I would put it, would have put it at the time and I would still put it is we've entered a world where attention is the scarce resource. And that's actually not, that's not new with AI I date this to kind of the social media revolution, the Internet revolution, where it used to be like, when I was a kid, you could get bored. You could be sitting around and you'd be like, dang, I wish I had something to pay attention to right now. And if you could give me something free to distract me, that would be a really good deal. And that was like, you know, that was the situation where the original social media network giants rose up was it's like there's this land grab for attention. Everybody has so much attention to give and not enough things to distract them. And we have won that war. We have won the war on boredom. Right. Nobody has the problem of I have five minutes and I don't have anything to do to kill that time. But the amount of attention I have is not infinite. And so now I live in a world where there's no scarcity of content, but there's a huge scarcity of good content. There's a huge scarcity of things that are worth paying attention to. And this is the fundamental insight of Substack is, you know, as somebody who has one life to live, if I could spend a little bit of money to get better culture, better ideas, more interesting use of my time, things that help me become more, more the person I want or aspire to be. That's actually a phenomenal deal and it would be insane of me not to be willing to spend money or spend a bit of effort to find that better thing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc .
• The Right to Exit Strengthens the Product: By allowing creators to easily export their email lists and leave, Substack forces itself to continuously provide enough value that they choose to stay. This creates a healthier, more aligned network 121 There's only one thing that's better than people staying on the platform, which is when people leave the platform, take advantage of the export features, and then subsequently return to open arms and come back. We call them boomerangs, and we love to see that, too. I think the right to exit is really important. People thought that was very dumb. They said, well, if you just let your customers leave, won't they just leave? And I think in the short run, that might be true, but in the long run, that created the right structure for us. It meant that we have to and still have to build a network that has enough value that even though you can leave, you don't want to. And even if you do leave, you might choose to come back. And I think that has caused us to keep the right thing at the forefront of our minds. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc .

Recommendations & Resources

• Build a Direct Audience: For creators, the episode underscores the importance of owning your audience relationship through platforms like email to reduce dependence on algorithmic social media giants 104 And it really reaches the dream, achieves the dream of sort of reaching your audience in the sense of, you know, if you have 100,000 Twitter followers, but you can't really engage them and you're dependent on the platform and sort of, you know, that's. That's not as thrilling as owning your. Your own email audience. And I think what I love about what you guys did is you took the risk that, hey, we're going to give people their emails and they could choose to leave if they want to, as opposed to being trapped, you know, to the platform. But we're just going to build such a compelling offering that writers are going to want to stay. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc .
• Reimagine Ads and Algorithms: Instead of copying the legacy social media ad model, which puts platforms at odds with users, Best argues for building monetization and algorithms from first principles to serve the user’s long-term interests 115 I kind of take the same thing we talked about with an algorithm, the same thing about building a network. I'm going to say the same thing when we talk about AI, which I assume we will do, but I see sponsorships. Advertising is a powerful force and I think there are definitely the thing that would break substack is if we just looked at the same way that the legacy social media things built advertising and said, oh, we're just going to copy that, like that's going to work. Because if we did that, the thing we would be doing is importing the incentive structure and the business model that puts the platform at odds with the people on the platform. On the other hand, there are a ton of substackers today. Some of them are like, in my opinion, some of the very best substackers who are selling sponsorships. And I think there's a version of unlocking more economic opportunity, more economic upside that is aligned with the idea of independence, the idea of having differentiated value and quality. And so we're very interested in doing that. But my belief is we have to take a sort of a first principles approach and not just stuff ads in a thing, but ask the question like, what would the good version of this be and help build that? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc 120 I think a more productive take is algorithms are powerful and they're a tool that people use and they serve the ends that we tell them. And if we tell them better ends, they'll help us get better results. And so this is something that we talked about a lot at Substack because I think people had this. There's a lot of our users who felt like at the time, they're like, the good thing about Substack is there isn't an algorithm and I just connect directly. And that's the thing that's actually good. And I think the take that we have is there's something that's much better than that, which is what if there was an algorithm that actually served you and that was actually trying to help you find the things that you deeply valued and actually had a, you know, like the nerd term for this is an objective function. If the objective function was actually closer to. In other words, the secret hidden master that the algorithm is serving is actually your own interest rather than, you know, trying to sell you more ads. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc .
• Use AI as a Creative Lever: Best suggests using AI not to generate low-quality “slop” but to give independent creators more leverage, such as turning a single conversation into a podcast, video, clips, and transcript with minimal friction 113 I mean, we're, we, we're building a live product that basically feels like, you know, I do, it feels like doing a FaceTime call and then magically turns into a highly produced podcast and a YouTube video and a series of short form clips and a transcript. And pretty soon it's going to be in whatever language you want. And, and we just, we're going to live in a world where, you know, one thing you could have is you could have a bunch of like, AI slop that kind of keeps dumb people clicking. The other thing you could have is you could have a future where there's way more creative leverage and where the people who are making this independent stuff, who have the independent voice can do way more, can make something much better, can realize their vision much more fully. And so in all these things, I'm kind of, you know, I think you look at the technology not as good or bad. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc .

Notable Quotes

“The media you consume is not just how you spend your time, it’s who you become.” 85 I wrote this piece called the Two Futures of Media, where I kind of argue, I think inevitably when you ask these questions, you get into sort of like weird philosophical questions like what is the purpose of media and what are we doing here? And I think that one of the purposes of media is to entertain, to have some effect. Like. And people use. The extreme way to say this is people use media like a drug, right? I'm going to sit there, I'm going to scroll this thing, I'm going to watch this thing. It's going to have some effect on me in the moment. That's going to create a pleasant feeling. And that's like one of the things that I want from it. And I think that that side of media is going to get supercharged. We have very sophisticated AI goon bots. Now is that a good thing? I don't know. But it's happening. And we're going to have that across like, you know, everything, every short form video, everything that could be like this. You know, it's almost approaching wireheading. The science fiction idea of like you plug a wire into your brain and it stimulates the pleasure centers. I think that future is, we're well into it, it's only accelerating. The stronger the technology gets, the stronger that thing becomes and the stronger it's a hazard for people, quite frankly, because there's a mode of consuming media and culture that is like drug addiction, where it is compelling in the moment, where it is something you want, it is something even you'd be willing to pay for, at least spend your time on. But it kind of like it pulls against your long term interest. And remember, the media you consume is not just how you spend your time, it's who you become. And so it degrades you. And so it makes your taste get more base. It makes you want more of the dumb thing. It sort of pulls you in. That's already happening. It's going to continue to happen. That's a big part of the future. I think that thing is baked in right now. But that's not the only purpose of media. The other purpose of media is culture. The other purpose of media is to live in a society and become the kind of person you want to become and to figure out how to live and act back on the world. Like the intersubjective multiplayer game of building with other people. And that is something that people really, really want as well. And I think that the same technologies that are making the first thing much more compelling can make that second thing much more compelling as well. And the thing that I think we can do at Substack is to create a version of that thing that is also fun and is also good and is also empowering. And you don't have to kind of be like, I don't want to. You have to be like a monk to use substack. You're like, well, I could scroll TikTok or I could go to the library and flip through some microfiche and it's like, yeah, you could do that, but nobody's actually going to do that. And so if we can take kind of like the good and interesting and culture laden future of media and make it really good and make it really compelling and have people make money from it when they make something truly great and have people realize that, you know, I aspire that the substack app could be a place where you, you look back at the time you spend on it and think, damn, I'm glad I did that. That made me a better person. That made me more interesting. And I think that that is possible and that if we. When there are these massive changes, when the world changes, when technology reshapes everything, I think the fact that there's going to be change can become inevitable. But which version of the change happens, which future you go to? 2 is contingent, right? People often ask, is the future determined or is great man theory true? How does history happen? And I think it's just both, right? There are these inexorable changes that are going to happen no matter what. But then in the moments of change, which future emerges is contingent on the choices people make and the accidents of history and individual decisions. And so I think the thing that is possible for us to do is to build a version of that second future of media where people are reading things that make them smarter or listening to conversations that plug them into the world in general, acting back on the culture and participating and engaging in ways that they value. And that that creates a ton of economic value and creates. This is why it's an economic engine for culture. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc

“I aspire that the Substack app could be a place where you look back at the time you spend on it and think, damn, I’m glad I did that. That made me a better person.” 98 And so if we can take kind of like the good and interesting and culture laden future of media and make it really good and make it really compelling and have people make money from it when they make something truly great and have people realize that, you know, I aspire that the substack app could be a place where you, you look back at the time you spend on it and think, damn, I'm glad I did that. That made me a better person. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc

Must-Listen Clip

Why it’s a must-listen: This segment is a powerful articulation of the central challenge facing media today. Chris Best frames the choice not as technology being good or bad, but as a contingent outcome based on the values we embed in our platforms. Listeners will get a clear framework for thinking about the trade-offs between attention economics and cultural value, and how product design can shape societal outcomes 118 I wrote this piece called the Two Futures of Media, where I kind of argue, I think inevitably when you ask these questions, you get into sort of like weird philosophical questions like what is the purpose of media and what are we doing here? And I think that one of the purposes of media is to entertain, to have some effect. Like. And people use. The extreme way to say this is people use media like a drug, right? I'm going to sit there, I'm going to scroll this thing, I'm going to watch this thing. It's going to have some effect on me in the moment. That's going to create a pleasant feeling. And that's like one of the things that I want from it. And I think that that side of media is going to get supercharged. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc 106 And I think that the same technologies that are making the first thing much more compelling can make that second thing much more compelling as well. And the thing that I think we can do at Substack is to create a version of that thing that is also fun and is also good and is also empowering. And you don't have to kind of be like, I don't want to. You have to be like a monk to use substack. You're like, well, I could scroll TikTok or I could go to the library and flip through some microfiche and it's like, yeah, you could do that, but nobody's actually going to do that. And so if we can take kind of like the good and interesting and culture laden future of media and make it really good and make it really compelling and have people make money from it when they make something truly great and have people realize that, you know, I aspire that the substack app could be a place where you, you look back at the time you spend on it and think, damn, I'm glad I did that. That made me a better person. That made me more interesting. And I think that that is possible and that if we. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suQzCETsetc .

OpenAI’s Build Hours: The Agentic Tooling Stack

Episode Overviews OpenAI’s Build Hour series hosted multiple deep dives into the tools powering the next generation of AI agents. Key sessions covered Agentic Tool Calling 38 Today we're going to talk about agentic tool calling, right? And how all the things that we talked about really come into this one idea. So what is agentic tool calling really? It comes down to reasoning and tools, right? So you can think of something like Deep research, Codex or O3 as just going through reasoning with tools. But why is this interesting, right? And the big part of this is really reasoning, right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E-qdsVEoB8 , which combines reasoning with actions; Built-In Tools 66 Welcome back to OpenAI build hours. I'm Christine, I'm on the startup marketing team and today I'm joined with Katya. Hi everyone, I'm Katya and I'm on the developer experience team. Katya is actually back for her second build hour and she's going to be in San Francisco all summer. We're really excited to have her. We have a really fun topic today, it's all about built in tools. But before we start, I did want to revisit the goal of build hours for anyone new joining us. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8St8elOrRPY , which simplify development by hosting tools like Web Search and Code Interpreter; Image Gen 124 Welcome back to Build Hours. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kM5aDD5gLI , which explores autoregressive image creation; and Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT) 55 Welcome to OpenAI build hours. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWLOo_fc5oA , a powerful technique for improving model reasoning on specific tasks.

Key Insights

• Train on Solutions, Not Steps: The big breakthrough in agentic behavior comes from training models on final outcomes and letting them learn the intermediate reasoning and tool-use steps themselves through reinforcement learning. This creates more robust, goal-oriented agents 37 So Last year we trained 01 where we really taught models to reason for the first time. And what this meant is instead of showing them like here's how you do a task step by step and hoping that it learns from our examples, we instead let it figure out how to get to solutions as it reasoned and we would just grade on whether it was correct or incorrect, right? So through reinforcement learning, OWAN learns to hone its own chain of thought to refine strategies. It uses. And so this is the first component of agentic tool calling is reasoning. We train the models on solutions, not the steps that make them up. They figure out the steps and reasoning emerges. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E-qdsVEoB8 32 And so this is what we're calling agentic tool calling. And what results is a model that is goal oriented, is resourceful, it'll figure out a way to get you what you asked for. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E-qdsVEoB8 .
• Built-In Tools Massively Simplify Development: Instead of building your own RAG pipeline or function-calling execution logic, built-in tools like File Search and Code Interpreter are hosted and executed on OpenAI’s infrastructure, turning complex tasks into a simple API call 56 But it works differently because you don't have to execute the code on your side. It's directly executed on our infrastructure. You can just tell the model, I want you to use these tools when you need. Then when the model thinks it's right it will call these tools, but instead of telling you, okay, you need to call this tool now it will actually execute it automatically and add the results to the conversation history, to the context, and automatically generate a response as well on your site. You don't need to do this step in the middle, you just need to let the model know you can use this. And then once it decides you can use a tool, you will directly go to this final response here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8St8elOrRPY 51 And so the file search tool, the way it works is it connects to a vector store where you have previously uploaded your files. For example, here I don't need to create the vector store myself, I can just upload the files and the playground will create the vector store automatically for me. That's all I have to do to prepare the usage of the fast search tool. Now that I did this, my files were automatically pre processed. What that means is that they were chunked, they were split in multiple little pieces, they were embedded, so they were converted into vectors so they could be uploaded to the vector store. That's something that you would normally have to do yourself. And that can be pretty daunting if you don't know what you're doing. Because there's a way to optimize the chunk size. There are many things you need to think about when you build your own rag pipeline. And here we take care of that for you. So you don't have to think about it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8St8elOrRPY .
• RFT is for Reasoning, Not Knowledge: Reinforcement Fine-Tuning is ideal for tasks where the model has the facts but struggles with the application or logic. It’s a data-efficient method that uses programmatic “graders” instead of manually labeled examples, with customers like Accordance seeing over 40% improvement on tax reasoning tasks 42 So if you're missing knowledge, start with prompting and rag. But if the model knows the facts but still struggle to apply them or reason about them accurately, that's where fine tuning would come in. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWLOo_fc5oA 48 RFD is unique because it's the only method today that can be applied for reasoning models. And reasoning models, we believe are the future. It's also data efficient, so you only need tens to hundreds of examples to get started with reinforcement fine tuning. And it's much easier to get signal on whether your task will improve by applying this technique. And finally, it doesn't require these manually labeled outputs. As I mentioned, it operates using graders, and so you can focus more time figuring out a grading strategy which is really useful for other things like evaluation, rather than sinking a lot of resources into building large labeled data sets which are quite expensive to curate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWLOo_fc5oA 40 And so that's one where we saw over 40% improvements just using RFD. And so that's significantly valuable for both our offering and also for our users as well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWLOo_fc5oA .
• Specify the End State, Not the Plan: When prompting an agent, focus on clearly defining the desired end state. The agent will use its reasoning and available tools to figure out the best path to get there, making it more resilient to failures along the way 31 So for agents, you're going to be thinking about goal specification, which is kind of different from before. Instead of specifying step by step, what you want to happen, you have to specify what the end state that you want is. So you also want to specify the tools which will give it access to the different resources that you have. And this way your agent will be able to interact with your own systems. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E-qdsVEoB8 .

Recommendations & Resources

• Use the Agents SDK: This SDK provides a simple wrapper for building agents, orchestrating multiple specialized agents with “handoffs,” and managing state 36 So for the first thing is we're going to use the assistance, I'm sorry, the agents SDK. And what this SDK does is it wraps this loop that we actually implemented it in my first build hours, which was implementing an agent. It's very similar and it's based on the swarm, if you're familiar with that. So here we have the simplest agent and let's just run it real quick to see what the interaction is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E-qdsVEoB8 35 I try to stay under 20ish. That's very, very, very heuristic. But at that point it's not so much about can it even handle it. It's like what are you really describing? And so the agents, SDK and I didn't get into this here has this notion of handoffs and if you check out the agents and assistants build hours. We do get into it more, but essentially it lets you specify multiple different agents that can pass off or hand off a conversation between each other where the one that has the most appropriate tools will get it and we'll get it in a way that doesn't have to be rerouted with each time. So 20 ish maybe. Can you use OpenAI hosted functions together with your own custom functions? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E-qdsVEoB8 .
• Prototype in the Playground: OpenAI’s Playground is the perfect place to experiment with built-in tools. You can configure tools visually, test prompts, and then copy the generated API call code directly into your application 60 For that, I'm going to use a playground, which is our experimentation lab on our platform. We haven't really talked about it during build hours before. That's why I wanted to talk about it now because it's a super helpful resource. Very convenient when you just want to try things out. You don't want to build a whole app or write a script, you just want to visually try things. For trying out tools is the perfect interface. We'll first try out the tools in there and then we'll move on to another demo in the Playground. I'm just going to do this very simple prompt. Let me switch the playground here and I'm going to add this very simple system prompt. This is the playground again, if you're not familiar with it, you can find it in the platform in Dashboard. It just moved. We used to have a blog playground, top level nav item, and now it moved to Dashboard. And so you can use it for chat, for audio, images, etc. But we'll use the chat one today. Here you can add any tools that you want. For example, here I can start with the file search tool. I'm going to add it here. And so the file search tool, the way it works is it connects to a vector store where you have previously uploaded your files. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8St8elOrRPY 46 The beauty of the Playground is that you can actually take this. Actually, I'm also going to add. I mean, we'll add it in our other app, but when you use the Stripe MCP tool, you might want to add this to your system prompt because the model doesn't necessarily know that you're looking at sense. And so your data might be a little overblown if you don't add that and your system system prompt. But we'll add it in our next app. I want to integrate those same tools that I tested here in my app. All I have to do is actually click here in code and I can see the code needed to do that. API call. I could just copy paste all of that. I already have most of it. So I'm just going to copy the tools array here. So I'm going to copy that. Here we go. Then in my tools list here, I'm going to paste this. I'm just going to replace this by the environment variable that I have defined. That's it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8St8elOrRPY .
• Start RFT with High-Quality Data: RFT is sensitive to data quality. Start with a small, clean dataset of 100-300 examples to see if the technique will work for your use case before investing in a larger dataset 41 But I would suggest using starting with a small amount of data to begin with. So you could choose maybe 100, 200, 300 rows of data and just letting that be a high quality data set to begin with. Then when it comes to actually building the evaluations and doing the training, we heard a lot about how do you design a grader? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWLOo_fc5oA .
• Combine Hosted and Custom Tools: A powerful pattern is to mix built-in tools with your own functions. For example, you can use a custom function to query your database and then pass the results to the hosted Code Interpreter tool for analysis and chart generation 34 Can you use OpenAI hosted functions together with your own custom functions? Yeah, of course. This is actually a really great pattern where I didn't implement this here, but if you want to, for example, use like code interpreter to analyze some results from database queries, you can absolutely do that. You can have functions that retrieve certain information or like load in certain numbers, for example, or some table and then the model will choose to do that and then use code interpreter to run and then give you results. So yes, it's actually highly recommended to use these together. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E-qdsVEoB8 .

Notable Quotes

“We train the models on solutions, not the steps that make them up. They figure out the steps and reasoning emerges.” 33 We train the models on solutions, not the steps that make them up. They figure out the steps and reasoning emerges. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E-qdsVEoB8

“RFT is unique because it’s the only method today that can be applied for reasoning models.” 39 RFD is unique because it's the only method today that can be applied for reasoning models. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWLOo_fc5oA

“Design can be thought of as a dialogue.” 93 With these advancements in modern capabilities for now we can truly say that design can be thought of as a dialogue. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kM5aDD5gLI

Must-Listen Clips

What you’ll learn from this clip: This is the core concept behind modern AI agents. You’ll hear how OpenAI combines reasoning (Chain of Thought) with action (tool calling) and uses reinforcement learning on final outcomes to create agents that are goal-oriented, resourceful, and robust 30 So Last year we trained 01 where we really taught models to reason for the first time. And what this meant is instead of showing them like here's how you do a task step by step and hoping that it learns from our examples, we instead let it figure out how to get to solutions as it reasoned and we would just grade on whether it was correct or incorrect, right? So through reinforcement learning, OWAN learns to hone its own chain of thought to refine strategies. It uses. And so this is the first component of agentic tool calling is reasoning. We train the models on solutions, not the steps that make them up. They figure out the steps and reasoning emerges. Then you can take function calling or tool calling where you take actions and fetch information. And when you combine them, that's when you get agentic tool calling. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E-qdsVEoB8 29 Which is the really powerful part of RL that we're now bringing into models, not just for thinking, but for doing as well. And what you see is this long term agency that is really, really powerful. And so this is what we're calling agentic tool calling. And what results is a model that is goal oriented, is resourceful, it'll figure out a way to get you what you asked for. It's very robust to recovery. So if it gets failures during the tools, it can actually course correct and get to the end. And it's really consistent over long horizon tasks. You can actually have tens, hundreds of function calls in a row. The codex I think does in the order of this and it stays consistent. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E-qdsVEoB8 .

What you’ll learn from this clip: This segment explains the key difference between traditional function calling and built-in tools. Instead of a three-step process where your app has to execute the function, built-in tools are automatically executed on OpenAI’s infrastructure, dramatically simplifying the code you need to write 64 What's the difference with function calling? Because some of you might be familiar with the concept of function calling. We actually did a build hour for function calling a few months ago. If you don't know what it is really quickly, it's the ability to tell the model. You can use these functions that you define your code. The way it works is that you tell the model that how it should use this function. It will just give you parameters that you can then use to call the functions on your side. And then you tell the model what the response is, what the result is. If you want to do function calling, there's actually three steps that are important. We have a little diagram here. We're going to focus on the three steps in the middle. Once the model decides, first you need to tell the model, these are the functions that are available to you. For example, you can have getweather function, and this is how you should call them. These are the parameters that you need. Once the model actually decides to call the function, it will tell you, okay, I think you should call this function. Now with these parameters, that's the first step. And then the second step is that you actually need to take that and then execute the function on your side. For example, you have some code defined or you need to call an API. You just take those parameters, execute the function, then you get a result. The third step is to tell the model, here's the results. You add it to the conversation history, to the conversation context, so that the model knows what the result is and it can then finally generate a final response. That's function calling. If we look at built in tools now, it works differently, except for one tool computers use. We'll cover it in a second. But it works differently because you don't have to execute the code on your side. It's directly executed on our infrastructure. You can just tell the model, I want you to use these tools when you need. Then when the model thinks it's right it will call these tools, but instead of telling you, okay, you need to call this tool now it will actually execute it automatically and add the results to the conversation history, to the context, and automatically generate a response as well on your site. You don't need to do this step in the middle, you just need to let the model know you can use this. And then once it decides you can use a tool, you will directly go to this final response here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8St8elOrRPY .

Economics, Governance & Society

From the Federal Reserve’s role in a modern economy to the impact of fiat currency on our food supply, this week’s discussions tackled the systems that shape our world.

All-In Podcast: Trump vs. The Fed

Episode Overview In a fiery debate, Chamath Palihapitiya argues that the Federal Reserve is not an independent body but a partisan one whose appointees align with the president’s ideology 137 I think that the Fed is no different than any other appointee to a part of the government, which is that they are partisan. Meaning if I said to you, is the Supreme Court viewed as partisan or nonpartisan? I think that most people at this point would say that the President that appointed them did so because they aligned with his ideology. If I asked you, the political appointees to any department of the United States federal government, are they political or non political? And the answer is that they're political. And the idea that we still can't admit that the Federal Reserve is political is part of the problem. The reality is that the people that appointed these governors did so because the people that were appointed were aligned with their philosophy. And so we should stop pretending that they're independent because they're not. And inasmuch as they are closer to a regular civil servant than the Supreme Court appointee, which is to say a lifetime appointment, which it's not, then I think it's very reasonable to say that any sitting president should be allowed to remove a Fed governor if he believes it's not aligned with the wishes of the electorate and the voters and the plan that was voted in. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4 . He challenges its core functions in a modern economy, suggesting that many of its responsibilities, like being the lender of last resort and setting rates, could be better handled by the Treasury and free markets, respectively 133 Could they be a lender of last resort? Personally, in my opinion, no. I think that treasury does a better job. I think we saw treasury do that during gfc. And I think that treasury has a better mechanism to get the American taxpayer a win than the Fed does. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4 132 Do they actually create monetary policy and price stability? I would say that the capital markets and the free markets actually do a better job of that. They define much more what the spread is. I think SOFR is a much better rate mechanism than the Fed funds rate at this point. Do they do banking supervision and regulation? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4 . David Sacks and others push back, defending the Fed’s institutional design, like 14-year terms, which are meant to insulate it from short-term political pressures 129 The members of the board of governors at the Fed, they're appointed to 14 year terms specifically to try and insulate them from the political cycles that occur. I think that that system has meant to kind of create a bit more resiliency to the institution and so it can operate without necessarily being affected by the, you know, intra election year kind of whims of politics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4 .

Key Insights

• The Fed is Partisan, Not Independent: Chamath’s central claim is that we should stop pretending Fed governors are independent arbiters. They are political appointees chosen for their philosophical alignment, and a president should have the right to remove them if they diverge from the electorate’s mandate 136 And inasmuch as they are closer to a regular civil servant than the Supreme Court appointee, which is to say a lifetime appointment, which it's not, then I think it's very reasonable to say that any sitting president should be allowed to remove a Fed governor if he believes it's not aligned with the wishes of the electorate and the voters and the plan that was voted in. I think that that's a reasonable thing. It's true for the rest of government. It should be true here. That's the narrow issue. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4 127 And the idea that we still can't admit that the Federal Reserve is political is part of the problem. The reality is that the people that appointed these governors did so because the people that were appointed were aligned with their philosophy. And so we should stop pretending that they're independent because they're not. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4 .
• Markets Can Set Rates Better: Instead of a handful of people using month-old, often incorrect data to set monetary policy, Chamath argues for a system where real-time economic data is published to a blockchain, allowing pricing oracles and markets to set rates dynamically 135 But the bigger issue, I think is asking from first principles, what does the Fed actually do in 2025? So we have an extremely vibrant and complicated and interconnected $130 trillion global economy. It's moving at the speed of light. The Fed gets together once a month, tries to divine what monetary policy, what the money supply should look like based on data that is often incorrect. We see that in the BLS data, we see that in the GDP prints, we see it in all of the inputs. And so we've turned over responsibility to a handful of humans using bad inputs. So I think the real question is there are certain parts of what the Fed does that they can continue to do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4 130 So, for example, today the Commerce Department did something that was pretty exceptional. They said, we're going to start publishing data to the blockchain. All the GDP data is now going into a blockchain. So can you imagine what this starts? I think, and we've talked about this before, I think employment data from all these employment companies and payroll companies should get published this way. GDP data can get published this way. All kinds of economic measures scrubbed for anonymity should get published so that you can have pricing oracles that actually tell you what's happening in real time. And the markets will then react and set rates in real time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4 .
• The Treasury is a Better Lender of Last Resort: Citing the GFC as an example, Chamath contends that the Treasury is better equipped to act as the lender of last resort and secure a better deal for taxpayers than the Fed 125 Could they be a lender of last resort? Personally, in my opinion, no. I think that treasury does a better job. I think we saw treasury do that during gfc. And I think that treasury has a better mechanism to get the American taxpayer a win than the Fed does. Do they actually create monetary policy and price stability? I would say that the capital markets and the free markets actually do a better job of that. They define much more what the spread is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4 .
• Short-Term Cuts Can Spike Long-Term Rates: A key counterpoint highlights the risk that politically motivated short-term rate cuts can stimulate inflation and government spending, causing long-term rates (like 30-year bonds) to spike as the market prices in future risk 128 It seems like there's a lot of declarations to basically reduce the overnight rates, the short end of the curve. So the short term rates come down, interest rates come down. The problem is, as a lot of economists have talked about and as we've seen in the bond market, is that that could really push up the long end of the curve because if you suddenly start to flood the market with capital in the short term by dropping rates today, so everyone will borrow, everyone will buy, it'll stimulate the economy, it'll stimulate growth, but it'll also stimulate inflation and it'll stay stimulate government spending. Then the ability for the government to make its debt payments and the cost of the inflation bears out in the long range. So you end up having 30 year rates spike up. So there's a sensitivity that's worth noting here that it's not just, hey, the Fed is in control of the money supply, but there's a consequence to the effect the money supply will have ultimately on the cost of borrowing over the long term and the US ability to service its debt. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4 .

Recommendations & Resources

• Publish Economic Data to the Blockchain: The most concrete proposal from the episode is for government bodies like the Commerce Department to publish key economic data (like GDP and employment figures) to a public blockchain. This would enable real-time pricing oracles that could inform market-driven monetary policy 126 So, for example, today the Commerce Department did something that was pretty exceptional. They said, we're going to start publishing data to the blockchain. All the GDP data is now going into a blockchain. So can you imagine what this starts? I think, and we've talked about this before, I think employment data from all these employment companies and payroll companies should get published this way. GDP data can get published this way. All kinds of economic measures scrubbed for anonymity should get published so that you can have pricing oracles that actually tell you what's happening in real time. And the markets will then react and set rates in real time. Those are the two most sensitive things that I think the Fed does that creates controversy that they shouldn't be doing anymore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4 .
• Re-examine Rate Mechanisms: The discussion suggests that market-based rates like SOFR are already better indicators than the Fed funds rate, pointing toward a future where decentralized price discovery could play a larger role 131 I think SOFR is a much better rate mechanism than the Fed funds rate at this point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4 .

Notable Quotes

“We should stop pretending that they’re independent because they’re not.” 127 And the idea that we still can't admit that the Federal Reserve is political is part of the problem. The reality is that the people that appointed these governors did so because the people that were appointed were aligned with their philosophy. And so we should stop pretending that they're independent because they're not. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4

“The Fed gets together once a month, tries to divine what monetary policy…based on data that is often incorrect.” 134 The Fed gets together once a month, tries to divine what monetary policy, what the money supply should look like based on data that is often incorrect. We see that in the BLS data, we see that in the GDP prints, we see it in all of the inputs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4

Must-Listen Clip

Why it’s a must-listen: This is where the conversation moves from critique to a concrete, forward-looking proposal. Chamath explains how the Commerce Department’s move to publish GDP data on-chain is the first step toward a future where markets, powered by real-time oracles, could set interest rates more efficiently than a centralized committee. It’s a fascinating bridge between technology, finance, and governance 126 So, for example, today the Commerce Department did something that was pretty exceptional. They said, we're going to start publishing data to the blockchain. All the GDP data is now going into a blockchain. So can you imagine what this starts? I think, and we've talked about this before, I think employment data from all these employment companies and payroll companies should get published this way. GDP data can get published this way. All kinds of economic measures scrubbed for anonymity should get published so that you can have pricing oracles that actually tell you what's happening in real time. And the markets will then react and set rates in real time. Those are the two most sensitive things that I think the Fed does that creates controversy that they shouldn't be doing anymore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5o2nC7EQo4 .

The Saifedean Ammous Podcast: Fiat Food

Episode Overview In a lecture from his Fiat Standard course, Saifedean Ammous argues that our modern diet is a direct consequence of fiat money 65 Foreign welcome to Lecture 8 of the Fiat Standard online course. Today's lecture's topic is fiat food. In today's lecture, we're going to be discussing how the institution of fiat money has affected food in the 20th century. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM . He connects the end of the gold standard in 1971 to government policies that incentivized cheap, industrial, nutrient-poor foods to mask inflation 63 Well, so in 1971, as we mentioned, earlier, the gold exchange window was closed, which meant that dollars could no longer be redeemed for gold, and by extension, all other currencies could no longer be redeemed in gold, because they were only redeemable in dollars, not in gold. And so that allowed the US Government obviously, a big margin for increasing credit because it didn't have to redeem all the credit that it released in gold. So the inevitable result, of course, was that the prices of goods and services went up. Fuel went up, food went up, everything went up. In the 70s, the price of everything went up. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM . This has led to a public health crisis where obesity is a sign of malnutrition, not abundance, and our agricultural soil is being depleted like any other mismanaged capital asset 54 And in fact, as you look at over the last few decades, you see people are just eating more and more garbage. And the obesity is not a sign of extra nutrition. Obesity is actually a sign of malnutrition. This is a very important point which is fundamentally different in the way that fiat nutrition science likes to understand the world versus proper nutrition science, which is, you know, nutrition science that is not built with the objective of making food cheap for governments. So nutrition is about a lot more than just caloric intake. It is about securing sufficient quantities of essential nutrients for the body, which come in four categories. Proteins, fats, vitamins, and minerals. These are the things that your body needs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM 50 And I think this is extremely important to think about it from the perspective of capital, because soil is capital. Ultimately, what soil is, is capital. Because soil is something, it's, you know, it's land, it's physical things that exist on the top of the land that allow plants to grow. With soil, you're able to grow food on land without topsoil. If the topsoil is depleted and you have dead soil, then you can't grow food on it. So having fertile soil, having soil that is rich with nutrients, is extremely valuable because it's extremely, it makes food. But of course it is possible to deplete the soil, which is what we've been doing for the past 50 years and in fact for the past 100 years. If you deplete the soil, you're able to maximize your benefits from it today at the expense of the future. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM .

Key Insights

• Obesity is Malnutrition: The core of the argument is that obesity is not a sign of excess but of poverty—specifically, a lack of essential nutrients (proteins, fats, vitamins, minerals). When the body is starved of nutrients, it converts empty calories from processed foods into body fat 49 And in fact, as you look at over the last few decades, you see people are just eating more and more garbage. And the obesity is not a sign of extra nutrition. Obesity is actually a sign of malnutrition. This is a very important point which is fundamentally different in the way that fiat nutrition science likes to understand the world versus proper nutrition science, which is, you know, nutrition science that is not built with the objective of making food cheap for governments. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM 53 When your nutrient intake is insufficient, your body converts your calories to body fat. When you're not getting enough proteins and fats, your body will make its own fat from the food that you give it, and so will store a lot of body fat. So obesity is essentially a sign of malnourishment. It's a sign of the fact of the body is not getting enough proteins, fats, vitamins, and minerals, and it's compensating by storing the body fat. Yes, the body is eating a lot of calories, mostly in the form of highly processed food, and that's generally what causes obesity. But it isn't an abundance of nutrients. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM .
• CPI is a Circular Fraud: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is presented as a mathematically invalid measure because the “basket of goods” it tracks changes as inflation forces people to buy cheaper substitutes. This circular logic ensures the CPI systematically understates the true cost of living 52 Measuring inflation happens through the CPI as we mentioned earlier, which measures the change in the price of an average basket of goods. But if the basket of goods is changing as people consume cheaper substitutes, then price inflation is understated. And that's the key thing, you know, that you're measuring the basket of goods, but what determines what is in the basket of goods is the value of money. So you're using the value of the basket of goods to measure the value of money, but it is the value of money that determines the components of the basket of goods. So therefore, as the value of money declines, people have to substitute with cheaper alternatives. And therefore the value of the basket of goods doesn't go up as much. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM 61 So the CPI is a mathematically invalid measure because it has no unit. This is ultimately the key point. If you want to measure something, you need to have a unit and it needs to be a unit that is a constant, that is definable, that is intersubjectively agreed upon by people. When you say a meter or a kilogram or a second, everybody understands what that is and they can compare it with one another and they both can arrive at a similar conclusion. But that's not the case with cpi. What is the CPI measuring? It measures changes in the value of money as measured by a basket of goods whose composition is determined by the changes in the value of money. You see the circularity here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM .
• Dietary Guidelines Serve Fiat, Not Health: Official dietary guidelines are driven by three main forces: the government’s need to make the CPI basket cheaper, an anti-meat religious movement, and the profit motives of industrial agribusiness. The result is a consensus to promote cheap, processed plant-based products 44 And if you look at what has happened with dietary guidelines, if you study the history, I think you can say there are three main drivers of what constitutes US dietary guidelines. First is making the CEI basket of goods cheaper. So the government is interested in using diet to try and tell people to eat cheaper things, because the cheaper the things that they eat, the less the cost of living goes up, the less inflation looks like it's a real problem. Secondly, there is an anti meat religious movement, and this is 19th century religious groups in the US that started to believe that the world would be better off if people didn't eat meat. And these people have been astonishingly influential in setting dietary policy. And then third is agribusiness, which is also enormously influential because they stand to gain enormously this. And so they benefit by using dietary guidelines to recommend the foods that are extremely profitable for them to gain. So they all agree you should eat cheap, highly profitable and processed plants. Basically this is the kind of compromise that all three of them agree. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM .
• Soil is Depleting Capital: Fiat money encourages high-time-preference thinking, leading to industrial farming practices that maximize short-term yield by depleting long-term soil health. This contrasts with low-time-preference methods like rotational grazing that maintain soil as a productive capital asset 58 Finally, one very important point with the issue of food and diet is the issue of soil. And I think this is extremely important to think about it from the perspective of capital, because soil is capital. Ultimately, what soil is, is capital. Because soil is something, it's, you know, it's land, it's physical things that exist on the top of the land that allow plants to grow. With soil, you're able to grow food on land without topsoil. If the topsoil is depleted and you have dead soil, then you can't grow food on it. So having fertile soil, having soil that is rich with nutrients, is extremely valuable because it's extremely, it makes food. But of course it is possible to deplete the soil, which is what we've been doing for the past 50 years and in fact for the past 100 years. If you deplete the soil, you're able to maximize your benefits from it today at the expense of the future. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM 57 Well, what would low time preference farming look like? Low time preference farming would look like, well, you have a small sum today, you gain, you're able to make a small sum of profit today and you keep the soil productive for the future. And that took usually historically, the way this took form was through rotation grazing, where you use a plot of land to grow crops for a few years, but then you deplete the soil and then you bring in animals to graze on the soil and they replenish the soil with, you know, their feces are go and enrich the soil. And then after a few years of animals grazing on it, the soil is regenerated and then you can start growing again. So usually what they did is rotational grazing and cropping. You see, you move the crops to a where the animals are and you move the animals to where the crops are and you keep moving them around. That's how you maintain the health of the soil. This is low time preference farming because it requires you to give up on high returns of very quick payout today by depleting the soil and making a lot of crops. And that's high time preference farming, where you maximize your profits today at the expense of the soil's health tomorrow. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM .

Recommendations & Resources

• Read the Counter-Narrative: Ammous positions the work of Weston A. Price on nutrition and Ludwig von Mises on economics as essential, non-mainstream critiques that provide a sounder foundation for understanding health and the economy 47 If there was a meases for nutrition, it would be Western Price. In the same way that Mises, you know, exists with and has all of this work out there and anybody can read it, anybody who reads it comes to the conclusion that this is a pretty important and very substantive critique of the way things are taught and studied in the mainstream. Similarly, you would reach the same conclusion if you read Weston Price. Both of these excellent authors wrote incredibly important books that are basically ignored by the mainstream of their fields in today's modern fiat universities. But both of their books are incredibly, incredibly powerful and incredibly important and will truly shake the foundations of how things are understood in the modern world. Well, for Mises, of course, it's a lot more than just one book. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM .
• Avoid the Five Fiat Foods: He identifies five categories of industrial foods that are at the center of dietary decline: industrial seed oils, processed corn, soy, low-fat products (which substitute fat with sugar), and refined flours/sugars 59 And in particular, you know, there are five specific foods that I think are at the forefront of what makes fiat food, because these are the ones that, these are the cheap Food that are industrial, that were heavily subsidized and promoted by governments around the world because they help make food cheap. So the first is polyunsaturated and hydrogenated vegetable and seed oils. They call them vegetable oil, but they have nothing to do with vegetables. They're essentially toxic chemicals from industrial processes. Processed corn, the introduction of corn into everything in the diet. This is an enormous rabbit hole, and I urge you to look into it. And I have more details in the chapter soy as well, which has been the cheap alternative to meat. The way that governments are trying to convince you to get rid of eating meat, low fat foods, this notion that eating fats is bad for you and that you should eat low fat has been massively popular with fiat governments around the world. And it has resulted in people substituting, instead of fat, they're putting in a lot of sugars and it's massively destructive. And then finally, refined flour and sugars. Those are really the five new modern industrial foods that have really hurt people's health the most. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM .
• Support Regenerative Agriculture: The episode champions low-time-preference farming practices like rotational grazing and cropping, which naturally replenish soil fertility without chemical inputs 45 Well, what would low time preference farming look like? Low time preference farming would look like, well, you have a small sum today, you gain, you're able to make a small sum of profit today and you keep the soil productive for the future. And that took usually historically, the way this took form was through rotation grazing, where you use a plot of land to grow crops for a few years, but then you deplete the soil and then you bring in animals to graze on the soil and they replenish the soil with, you know, their feces are go and enrich the soil. And then after a few years of animals grazing on it, the soil is regenerated and then you can start growing again. So usually what they did is rotational grazing and cropping. You see, you move the crops to a where the animals are and you move the animals to where the crops are and you keep moving them around. That's how you maintain the health of the soil. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM .

Notable Quotes

“Obesity is not a sign of extra nutrition. Obesity is actually a sign of malnutrition.” 49 And in fact, as you look at over the last few decades, you see people are just eating more and more garbage. And the obesity is not a sign of extra nutrition. Obesity is actually a sign of malnutrition. This is a very important point which is fundamentally different in the way that fiat nutrition science likes to understand the world versus proper nutrition science, which is, you know, nutrition science that is not built with the objective of making food cheap for governments. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM

“The CPI is a mathematically invalid measure because it has no unit. This is ultimately the key point. If you want to measure something, you need to have a unit and it needs to be a unit that is a constant.” 43 Your, the basket of goods continues to deteriorate and people continue to eat crappier food. And as a result, the result shows up in people's health deteriorating. That's how inflation shows up. So the CPI is a mathematically invalid measure because it has no unit. This is ultimately the key point. If you want to measure something, you need to have a unit and it needs to be a unit that is a constant, that is definable, that is intersubjectively agreed upon by people. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM

Must-Listen Clip

Why it’s a must-listen: This segment breaks down the central flaw in how we measure inflation. You’ll hear the clear, concise explanation of why the CPI is a circular metric—it measures the value of money using a basket of goods whose contents are determined by the declining value of money itself. It’s a foundational concept for understanding why official inflation numbers feel so disconnected from real-world experience 62 Measuring inflation happens through the CPI as we mentioned earlier, which measures the change in the price of an average basket of goods. But if the basket of goods is changing as people consume cheaper substitutes, then price inflation is understated. And that's the key thing, you know, that you're measuring the basket of goods, but what determines what is in the basket of goods is the value of money. So you're using the value of the basket of goods to measure the value of money, but it is the value of money that determines the components of the basket of goods. So therefore, as the value of money declines, people have to substitute with cheaper alternatives. And therefore the value of the basket of goods doesn't go up as much. As the Bitcoin standard Podcast is brought to you by the safehouse.com, my independent publisher and bookshop, selling the best Bitcoin books in high quality cloth hardcovers built to last for generations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBIH1ih7_dM .

The Peter McCormack Show: The State Is a Criminal Gang

Episode Overview Peter McCormack sits down with Michael Malice, who argues for viewing politics through an anarchist lens, where parties like the Tories and Labour are seen as “rival criminal gangs” competing for power 24 But it helps your approach to politics because you realize under the anarchist perspective that the Tories and Labor are literally rival criminal gangs. And people get confused because they dress nicely and they have a beautiful house and they give these speeches, but these are gangsters. And once you see things through that lens, many other things become clear. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0 . The conversation gets incredibly practical as McCormack details his own local civic renewal project in Bedford, where he hired private security to restore public order after observing a decline in safety and a rise in drug use and crime 16 So we live in this small town called Bedford. It's 40 minutes north of here on the train. Oh, this was you? Oh, yeah, this was me. This is my plan for civic renewal. Okay, so what happened was. Do you remember I own a football team? Yes, of course I own a football team. And you guys won. We won the league three years in a row. And so we wanted to have a club shop in the town center, but a club shop won't sell enough merchandise to cover the costs, so we made it a cafe as well. Nice. Okay. And so you can get a good coffee. We could sell Mama's coffee, which is around the corner, and, and then we sell the merchant tickets to games. And when we set it up, I would base myself there and I'd sit in the window with my laptop working. And what I realized is there's a lot of drug, drug addicts in the town now, which we hadn't seen before. And you sit there in the morning, you see 10, 20, 30 people just. And this is a small town, just come out onto the street yelling, heroin, Specifically heroin and crack. Okay. And they'll be yelling at people, they would be begging, they would be shoplifting. They'll. They'll target either Tesco's or the charity shops because it's run by a little old la. Most people I know who've got a shop have been the victim of some form of Shoplifting quite a bit, though. There's an area at the top of the high street called St. Peter's Green. It's a really nice green outside of church by a private school. And every day there are 20, 30, 40 people drunk, fighting, puking, having sex. Connor's seen someone being resuscitated, seen three ambulances there. And so I was like, what the fuck's going on here? Yeah, that's what I'm. That's my reaction. This is the tenderloin, right? This is the start of the tenderloin. What is going on? And trying to understand what the problem was. And then I started speaking to people saying, are you shopping in the town? Some people like, yes. Some people like, no. And I was like, why? And they said, well, it's a bit of a dump and I'm scared. I'm scared for my safety. They're right to be scared. Yeah. So we put this plan together and so I. Well, I did. I just wrote a manifesto. And the first one was to restore public order and safety. So I went to see the police. The police are stretched. They haven't got enough money. Sure. And so I was like, fuck this, you know, I'm going to do. I'm going to put private security in. So I. You're speaking my language. Well, this is why. I thought you'd enjoy this. So this is why go from yelling at me to going, okay, I get it. So I didn't. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0 .

Key Insights

• Anarchism as a Mindset: Malice presents anarchism not as a utopian political system but as a practical mindset for daily life. It helps you see political parties as gangsters and allows you to approach problems directly rather than waiting for the state to solve them 27 Well, let's get to there. So first of all, this is because when people say it can't happen, this is some. It's. It's a mindset that you can apply to your life right now and that everyone can. And it also helps your approach to. I don't know if you could run a nation per se, because it wouldn't be a nation in that sense. But it helps your approach to politics because you realize under the anarchist perspective that the Tories and Labor are literally rival criminal gangs. And people get confused because they dress nicely and they have a beautiful house and they give these speeches, but these are gangsters. And once you see things through that lens, many other things become clear. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0 .
• Private Action for Public Good: Faced with an underfunded police force and rising crime in his town, McCormack took matters into his own hands. He wrote a manifesto and hired private security guards to act as “scarecrows,” documenting incidents and enforcing existing public space protection orders 23 I'm going to put private security in. So I. You're speaking my language. Well, this is why. I thought you'd enjoy this. So this is why go from yelling at me to going, okay, I get it. So I didn't. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0 28 Do the security in my nightclub. And I said, I'm. Every Saturday in August, I'm going to put 10 security guards in the town, and they're going to act like scarecrows. They have. They've got body cam. So if they see. See anything, they can record it. Documented. All documentary. Yes. And their job is essentially scarecrows. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0 .
• Free Speech or Free Violence: The hosts discuss the erosion of free speech in the UK, framing the arrests of people for social media posts as a dangerous precedent. The argument is that when speech is no longer free, violence becomes the alternative outlet for dissent 22 If this lady's being put in jail for tweets, the clampdown has started. So your choice. The violence has started. If you are, it's either free speech or free violence. If you start arresting people for Facebook posts or saying that Hamas are terrorists. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0 .
• The Power of Precise Language: The discussion touches on the importance of using direct, accurate language, arguing that calling things by their true names (e.g., “rape gangs” instead of “grooming gangs”) is a necessary step toward accountability 21 And we can't call them grooming gangs, they're rape gangs. We have to call them what they are. It's not grooming. No. Rape and torture gangs. Yeah. I mean, grooming might have been one phase of element of what they did, but they are rape gangs. They gang raped and they did the most horrific things to these girls. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0 .

Recommendations & Resources

• Get Involved Locally: McCormack’s Bedford project serves as a case study for taking direct action. The steps included observing the problem firsthand, drafting a plan, and funding a solution (private security) when public services were insufficient 19 So we put this plan together and so I. Well, I did. I just wrote a manifesto. And the first one was to restore public order and safety. So I went to see the police. The police are stretched. They haven't got enough money. Sure. And so I was like, fuck this, you know, I'm going to do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0 .
• Protect Your Finances with Bitcoin: The host recommends Bitcoin as the “hardest money ever created” and a crucial tool for protecting your financial future from government-driven inflation. He personally uses and recommends Gemini for buying and custodying Bitcoin 17 You can go and research this, you can go and read the books, but the truth is, it is the hardest money ever created. If you are interested in protecting your financial future, it's time for you to get on the bitcoin train. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0 26 Well, for me, it's with Gemini. They're a fully licensed, full reserve, exchange and custodian. So they give you a secure way for you to buy and own your bitcoin. There's no risks and no funny business. So if you're serious about stacking bitcoin the right way, head over to gemini.com, which is g e m I n I dot com. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0 .
• Protect Your Privacy with Incogni: To combat the constant spam from data brokers, McCormack recommends Incogni, a service that legally removes your data from their lists. He reports that it successfully removed him from 79 lists 25 I want to talk to you about one of my sponsors, Incogni. And that means we're going to talk about the weird world of spam. And I don't just mean those spam emails that you get day after day from companies you never heard of and companies you've never signed up to. I'm also talking about those spam phone calls you get from those people who seem to know a little bit too much about you trying to get your bank details. It's all a bit creepy right now. This all comes from the world of data brokerage. There are companies out there collecting your data, building profiles and sending that data to anyone who wants it. Which is why when one of those scammers phoned you up, they seem to know everything about you. Now, I've tried, I've tried myself to get off these lists, try to get off the phone lists, try to get off the email list. I unsubscribe from every one of these emails that comes in, but it's a game of whack a mole. It just never ends. And so this is where Incogni comes in. They do all the hard work for you, they reach out to these companies and they will get you legally removed from these lists. And I know because last time they sponsored my show I signed up and I didn't take the free option that they offered me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0 20 And I know because last time they sponsored my show I signed up and I didn't take the free option that they offered me. I wanted to pay for it. I wanted to see if you get value for money. And they removed me from 79 data broker lists. And so I've stayed on, I've stayed a subscriber and I have seen a massive decrease in the number of emails and phone calls I've been getting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0 .

Notable Quotes

“The average man does not want to be free. He simply wants to be safe.” 18 There's a great newspaper man from the 1920s named H.L. mencken, who's a great hero of mine. And he said it very simply. The average man does not want to be free. He simply wants to be safe. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0

“Under the anarchist perspective… the Tories and Labor are literally rival criminal gangs.” 24 But it helps your approach to politics because you realize under the anarchist perspective that the Tories and Labor are literally rival criminal gangs. And people get confused because they dress nicely and they have a beautiful house and they give these speeches, but these are gangsters. And once you see things through that lens, many other things become clear. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0

Must-Listen Clip

Why it’s a must-listen: This segment is a masterclass in local, practical action. Peter McCormack walks through his entire process of identifying a problem in his town (decaying public safety), diagnosing the cause, and implementing a direct, privately-funded solution. It’s a powerful example of how one person can make a tangible difference when they stop waiting for the state to act 16 So we live in this small town called Bedford. It's 40 minutes north of here on the train. Oh, this was you? Oh, yeah, this was me. This is my plan for civic renewal. Okay, so what happened was. Do you remember I own a football team? Yes, of course I own a football team. And you guys won. We won the league three years in a row. And so we wanted to have a club shop in the town center, but a club shop won't sell enough merchandise to cover the costs, so we made it a cafe as well. Nice. Okay. And so you can get a good coffee. We could sell Mama's coffee, which is around the corner, and, and then we sell the merchant tickets to games. And when we set it up, I would base myself there and I'd sit in the window with my laptop working. And what I realized is there's a lot of drug, drug addicts in the town now, which we hadn't seen before. And you sit there in the morning, you see 10, 20, 30 people just. And this is a small town, just come out onto the street yelling, heroin, Specifically heroin and crack. Okay. And they'll be yelling at people, they would be begging, they would be shoplifting. They'll. They'll target either Tesco's or the charity shops because it's run by a little old la. Most people I know who've got a shop have been the victim of some form of Shoplifting quite a bit, though. There's an area at the top of the high street called St. Peter's Green. It's a really nice green outside of church by a private school. And every day there are 20, 30, 40 people drunk, fighting, puking, having sex. Connor's seen someone being resuscitated, seen three ambulances there. And so I was like, what the fuck's going on here? Yeah, that's what I'm. That's my reaction. This is the tenderloin, right? This is the start of the tenderloin. What is going on? And trying to understand what the problem was. And then I started speaking to people saying, are you shopping in the town? Some people like, yes. Some people like, no. And I was like, why? And they said, well, it's a bit of a dump and I'm scared. I'm scared for my safety. They're right to be scared. Yeah. So we put this plan together and so I. Well, I did. I just wrote a manifesto. And the first one was to restore public order and safety. So I went to see the police. The police are stretched. They haven't got enough money. Sure. And so I was like, fuck this, you know, I'm going to do. I'm going to put private security in. So I. You're speaking my language. Well, this is why. I thought you'd enjoy this. So this is why go from yelling at me to going, okay, I get it. So I didn't. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0 15 And the first one was to restore public order and safety. So I went to see the police. The police are stretched. They haven't got enough money. Sure. And so I was like, fuck this, you know, I'm going to do. I'm going to put private security in. So I. You're speaking my language. Well, this is why. I thought you'd enjoy this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch5r_prC1k0 .

Health, Psychology & Relationships

From the mechanics of longevity to the intricacies of modern dating and the struggles of mental health, these conversations explore the core of the human experience.

Peter Attia MD: How to Exercise for Longevity

Episode Overview Dr. Peter Attia is joined by Dr. Stuart McGill to discuss why core stability is not about peak performance, but about injury prevention and preserving your body for the long haul 103 You know, when I exercise today, I don't care about the performance. I care about the preservation and longevity of my body for whatever number of years I have left. So this is really where I think stability matters. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs . The highlight is an emotional and powerful story where Dr. McGill uses simple movement cues derived from elite weightlifters to help an elderly woman regain the ability to stand up from a toilet, saving her from having to leave her home 83 The next one was a woman in her early 70s, clearly distraught. You could look at her posture, her carriage. She was defeated by the world. And she came onto the stage and I said, can you tell me your story? And she. She said a little few sentences and then she said, but the therapist says that I have to leave my home now. When I get off the toilet, I'm a bit unsteady, and she's afraid I'm going to fall on the floor. I can't get off the floor by myself. And I'm just going to lay there and no one will discover me. I have to leave my home. She started to cry at this point, Peter, she said what's going to happen to my cat and all this sort of stuff? And I said really? Would someone please bring me out a stool? And this will be our simulated toilet. So an assistant brought in stool onto the stage. I said okay, pretend that's the toilet and the seat. She turned and had no idea how to move and just sort of plopped and collapsed on the toilet. And then I'm just going to turn this down because I want you to see my lower body kinematics as we're moving here. And then I said would you get up off the chair? And I can't remember whether she was wearing a skirt or pants. Pants I think it was. But nonetheless, knees together. And she just sort of collapsed and I had to help her. She was going to collapse onto the floor. And so I said I, I, I, I want you to humor me. Now. You're my mirror and I try when I coach, I try and use minimum words. I said, do this with your hands. Put your kneecap between your thumb and your hands as you slide your hands down. Good. Now I want you to be a leaning tower. Leaning tower forward and backwards and play with the curve of your back. Do you have any pain now? She said no. And I said watch my shoulders. You're shrugged. I want you to anti shrug. She did that. Perfect. And now I said, pull your hands up your thighs by pulling your hips through. Don't lift with your back, pull your hips through. She had it done in three repetitions. That was now her pattern. And I said okay, think of what we've just done and sit on the toilet. And I said whoops. Spread your feet apart. And there she went, slid her hands down. And now I said, then she put her knees together and I said now stand up. And she was going right back to the incompetent movement that caused her inability and disability. Before I said, spread your knees apart and pull your heels underneath you. Sift some air. Now lean forward and do what you now know how to do. And she did a perfect squat. Do it again. And then by the third repetition, big smile came on her face. This is the emotional part. I said what's up with you? She said, I don't have to leave my home, do. I said, no. Do you know many of those hard baked surgeons and clinicians started to cry as well? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs .

Key Insights

• Stability is for Longevity, Not Performance: The primary reason to focus on core stability as you age is to prevent the “energy leakage” that leads to injury during everyday activities like carrying groceries or climbing stairs 102 Where I think we should all care about this is that it's not just that the energy leakage costs you performance, it clearly does. It's that it predisposes you to injury. And that's where I think we have to bring this back. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs .
• Elite Athlete Biomechanics Apply to Everyone: Dr. McGill pushes back against clinicians who dismiss lessons from elite athletes. He argues that high-performance sport is a laboratory for understanding human potential and movement efficiency, providing hacks that can change the lives of elderly or sick patients 97 And there will be therapists and clinicians in the room who say, we don't deal with elite athletes. We deal with the elderly or we deal with sick people. And I think, what are you thinking? I'm showing you what the human body has the potential to do. And your arrogance won't allow you to learn what is possible. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs 88 With the arrogance of some of our colleagues who say, I don't want to hear stories about elite athletes. I deal with old people or sick people, and that's why they continue to not have the skill set to help their people. All I did was learn from the best weightlifters the world, people who know how to move load, learn what the efficiency was and turn it into a hack to change a person's life. Anyway, that's a pretty emotional story, and I hope we do that quite often. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs .
• Movement Can Be Re-Patterned in Minutes: The powerful live demo shows that functional decline is not always irreversible. With the right cues, an incompetent and dangerous movement pattern (like standing up) can be corrected into a safe, perfect squat in just a few repetitions 101 That was now her pattern. And I said okay, think of what we've just done and sit on the toilet. And I said whoops. Spread your feet apart. And there she went, slid her hands down. And now I said, then she put her knees together and I said now stand up. And she was going right back to the incompetent movement that caused her inability and disability. Before I said, spread your knees apart and pull your heels underneath you. Sift some air. Now lean forward and do what you now know how to do. And she did a perfect squat. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs 99 And she did a perfect squat. Do it again. And then by the third repetition, big smile came on her face. This is the emotional part. I said what's up with you? She said, I don't have to leave my home, do. I said, no. Do you know many of those hard baked surgeons and clinicians started to cry as well? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs .

Recommendations & Resources

• Learn from High-Performers: The core recommendation is to study the movement principles of the best in the world (like elite weightlifters) to find the most efficient and safest ways to move, and then apply those principles to everyday life and rehabilitation 84 All I did was learn from the best weightlifters the world, people who know how to move load, learn what the efficiency was and turn it into a hack to change a person's life. Anyway, that's a pretty emotional story, and I hope we do that quite often. But it's a matter of. I know you like cars. Why Does Honda race F1 race cars? Well, they don't anymore, but when they did. And the reason was they learned about automotive technology. And the gearshift change in your Honda Civic came from the F1 racetrack. So that's why we work with elite athletes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs .
• Use Simple, Actionable Cues: When coaching movement, use minimal words and direct, observable cues. The demo included cues like: “put your kneecap between your thumb and your hands,” “be a leaning tower,” “anti-shrug,” and “pull your hips through” 95 I said, do this with your hands. Put your kneecap between your thumb and your hands as you slide your hands down. Good. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs 92 And I said watch my shoulders. You're shrugged. I want you to anti shrug. She did that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs 91 And now I said, pull your hands up your thighs by pulling your hips through. Don't lift with your back, pull your hips through. She had it done in three repetitions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs .
• Prioritize Resistance Training for All Ages: The conversation reinforces the growing consensus that resistance training isn’t just for young men; it’s an essential activity for everyone to maintain strength, stability, and independence throughout life 87 You know, there's more discussion of the importance of resistance training and that it's not a young guy thing to do, it's an everybody thing to do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs .

Notable Quotes

“When I exercise today, I don’t care about the performance. I care about the preservation and longevity of my body for whatever number of years I have left. So this is really where I think stability matters.” 103 You know, when I exercise today, I don't care about the performance. I care about the preservation and longevity of my body for whatever number of years I have left. So this is really where I think stability matters. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs

“All I did was learn from the best weightlifters the world, people who know how to move load, learn what the efficiency was and turn it into a hack to change a person’s life.” 89 All I did was learn from the best weightlifters the world, people who know how to move load, learn what the efficiency was and turn it into a hack to change a person's life. Anyway, that's a pretty emotional story, and I hope we do that quite often. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs

Must-Listen Clip

Why it’s a must-listen: This is one of the most moving and practical demonstrations you’ll ever hear. Dr. McGill takes an elderly woman who was about to be forced from her home because she couldn’t stand up safely and, in a matter of minutes, teaches her a new movement pattern that restores her independence. It’s a powerful testament to the impact of good coaching and the idea that it’s never too late to improve 83 The next one was a woman in her early 70s, clearly distraught. You could look at her posture, her carriage. She was defeated by the world. And she came onto the stage and I said, can you tell me your story? And she. She said a little few sentences and then she said, but the therapist says that I have to leave my home now. When I get off the toilet, I'm a bit unsteady, and she's afraid I'm going to fall on the floor. I can't get off the floor by myself. And I'm just going to lay there and no one will discover me. I have to leave my home. She started to cry at this point, Peter, she said what's going to happen to my cat and all this sort of stuff? And I said really? Would someone please bring me out a stool? And this will be our simulated toilet. So an assistant brought in stool onto the stage. I said okay, pretend that's the toilet and the seat. She turned and had no idea how to move and just sort of plopped and collapsed on the toilet. And then I'm just going to turn this down because I want you to see my lower body kinematics as we're moving here. And then I said would you get up off the chair? And I can't remember whether she was wearing a skirt or pants. Pants I think it was. But nonetheless, knees together. And she just sort of collapsed and I had to help her. She was going to collapse onto the floor. And so I said I, I, I, I want you to humor me. Now. You're my mirror and I try when I coach, I try and use minimum words. I said, do this with your hands. Put your kneecap between your thumb and your hands as you slide your hands down. Good. Now I want you to be a leaning tower. Leaning tower forward and backwards and play with the curve of your back. Do you have any pain now? She said no. And I said watch my shoulders. You're shrugged. I want you to anti shrug. She did that. Perfect. And now I said, pull your hands up your thighs by pulling your hips through. Don't lift with your back, pull your hips through. She had it done in three repetitions. That was now her pattern. And I said okay, think of what we've just done and sit on the toilet. And I said whoops. Spread your feet apart. And there she went, slid her hands down. And now I said, then she put her knees together and I said now stand up. And she was going right back to the incompetent movement that caused her inability and disability. Before I said, spread your knees apart and pull your heels underneath you. Sift some air. Now lean forward and do what you now know how to do. And she did a perfect squat. Do it again. And then by the third repetition, big smile came on her face. This is the emotional part. I said what's up with you? She said, I don't have to leave my home, do. I said, no. Do you know many of those hard baked surgeons and clinicians started to cry as well? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUlGlPi5Ecs .

The Saad Truth: Dr. Geoffrey Miller on Evolutionary Psychology & Mating

Episode Overview Dr. Gad Saad welcomes Professor Jeffrey Miller to discuss the practical applications of evolutionary psychology, from marketing mishaps to the broken incentives of modern dating apps 119 Hi everybody, this is Gatsad for another episode of the Sad Truth. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI 116 And my answer, which I'll give first and then I'll ask for your answer, I thought that some of the areas where evolutionary psychology could make the greatest amount of impact. So bank for the buck is an applied discipline, hence, you know, applying it in economics or in law or in medicine or in the business school and so on. In other words, the 7,800th paper on universal mating preferences, while very interesting to demonstrate that it has been replicated into some other new tribe that we hadn't thought of, is something that we sort of know now, menstrual cycle effects, areas that we've both explored. You know, we sort of have a pretty good understanding of that. Do you agree that maybe the application of EP in applied fields might be where some of the biggest advances happen? Or are there other things that you think the future of EP lies? Yeah, I mean, the really weird thing about evolutionary psychology is that already, by about the early 90s, within just a few years of the field being founded by people like Leon Cosmodes and John Toobie and Steve Pinker and David Buss, we had a really strong metatheoretical framework for understanding human nature. Like, it happened incredibly quickly. Why? Because we borrowed huge numbers of ideas and concepts and insights from evolutionary biology and animal behavior. And then the question is, what do you do with that framework? Well, the most interesting things in society are often these applied issues. Okay, like, how does this cash out in consumer behavior, marketing, advertising? How does it cash out in the mating market? And how does it cash out into contemporary politics? You know, a huge focus that you've emphasized, and then there's feedback loops where you can go, oh, we think we understand human values and preferences, but let's see, is our understanding actually good enough to shape the advice that we give to ad agencies and market researchers? Is it really? So you get very valuable feedback once you start actually trying to apply this, where the rubber hits the road. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI . Miller details his work as a science advisor for a new matchmaking service called Keeper, which aims to fix the dating market by aligning its business model with users’ long-term goals and using psychometrics to create better matches 112 Okay, well, we're talking about romance novels, we're talking about porn, hence sort of the mating drive. You told me before we came on the show that you're involved in a new exciting endeavor with a mating app. It's called Keeper. Tell us about it. I'm excited to hear about it. Yeah. So I've been chief science advisor to this new startup matchmaking app. We don't really call it a dating app because it's really oriented towards long term relationships and marriage and people who want family and kids. So it's kind of like the anti Tinder. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI 111 So Keeper, this new matchmaking company, is trying to do something different, not just in terms of welcoming people who are already mature enough to go, I'm done with casual dating, I've sowed my wild oats, now I want to settle down, find a spouse, have kids, get a life and sort out this mate choice thing. But also the amazing thing about the Keeper team is they've read all the evolutionary psychology, they know your work, they know my work, they've read my books, they're really into human nature and they're into individual differences. They understand iq, they understand the big five personality traits and they actually want to measure these in their clients as accurately and objectively as possible. Because they know, like, it's one thing to claim I'm smart, I'm looking for a smart person, but their clientele is often quite highly educated, quite high income, and they want to be confident. Right. Does this person really have the educational credentials and the intelligence that they claim? Even do they really have like the openness or extroversion or agreeableness or the other personality traits that they claim? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI .

Key Insights

• Dating Apps Have Perverse Incentives: Mainstream dating apps like Tinder operate on a subscription model, which means their financial incentive is to keep you single and swiping, not to find you a lifelong partner. As Miller points out, only 1 in 5 million swipes results in a marriage 100 So if you go on Tinder or hinge or match.com, their economic model is you pay us a monthly subscription fee and we give you a lot of feedback and kind of fake sexual validation. Like, hopefully you get some likes. But by the way, only 1 in 5 million swipes is going to result in a marriage. Is that literally the number? Yeah, it's 1 in 5 million. Holy moly. I would have thought 1 in 10,000. Yeah. No, it's a very inefficient way to find a spouse. But anyway, their incentives are to keep you on the app as long as possible and for you to fail to find a mate. Because if you find a monogamous mate, you're going to leave the app and your monthly subscription fee goes away. So Keeper is trying to do something where there's a couple different models, but one is a marriage bounty, right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI .
• Cultural Artifacts are a Window into Human Nature: Miller argues that things like romance novels, porn, and social media, while often dismissed, provide incredibly rich data on our mating preferences, sexual psychology, and the importance of social validation 94 So for example, our friend Catherine Salmon at University of Redlands, California has done lots of work on romance novels. If romance novels didn't exist, we wouldn't have nearly as good a window into female mate choice. Right. Because the thing about romance novels is they don't have to make any concessions to the reality of how mating and dating actually work. Right. You can be a sort of not super attractive woman who somehow inspires a grand uncontrollable passion in like a world class alpha male who wants to sweep you off your feet and take you away to his kingdom and blah blah, blah. And like that's not really going to happen and you don't observe it. But in the realm of fantasy as manifest in these cultural artifacts, right. You can, you can get insight into that. Likewise, you know, porn, love it or hate it, is an extremely rich set of insights into the sexual psychology of both men and women. And we've learned an awful lot about human nature from social media in the last 20 years in terms of how people argue, what people are influenced by the extreme importance of social validation as part of the human motivational system. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI 90 But in the realm of fantasy as manifest in these cultural artifacts, right. You can, you can get insight into that. Likewise, you know, porn, love it or hate it, is an extremely rich set of insights into the sexual psychology of both men and women. And we've learned an awful lot about human nature from social media in the last 20 years in terms of how people argue, what people are influenced by the extreme importance of social validation as part of the human motivational system. So that to me is kind of cool. The more consumerist capitalism we get, the more we can kind of triangulate on what really is human nature and how does it work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI .
• Marketing Fails by Ignoring Human Nature: Companies like Cracker Barrel have lost billions by allowing their marketing departments—often dominated by a specific political and personality profile—to become disconnected from their actual customer base 74 And in particular, if they are aware of the kind of political biases that dominate marketing. It's very female dominated, it's very leftist, it's very high openness people. It's a lot about empathy signaling, right? If you can get them to understand that actually your customers, oh, and also your workers and investors aren't necessarily the same distribution of personality traits that you guys in marketing are, that can help enormously. It could have helped, for example, Cracker Barrel, right, the restaurant chain which got into huge trouble recently by completely misunderstanding their customer base, right? Which is white, rural and suburban and exurban families who are traditionalist, religious and just want a nice, happy, reliable, nostalgic place to take their families to eat, right? And instead Cracker Barrel goes off in this insane DEI wokey direction and they get rid of the white male and their logo and like they've backpedaled a bit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI .
• Sharing Attractions Can Strengthen Relationships: Research shows that couples in both monogamous and non-monogamous relationships benefit from openly sharing who they find attractive. This often reveals surprising quirks and builds trust 107 One surprising thing seems to be almost everybody, regardless of the relationship type, seems to benefit from sharing. Which other people do they find sexually and romantically attractive? Right? And that's not necessarily, oh, I find this particular neighbor or co worker hot. It can even just be, which actor, actresses or musicians or whoever do you do you find attractive? And the reason why that seems to work often in building rapport and trust is that each person in the relationship is often kind of surprised at who the other person finds most attractive. Right? Because it often comes down to little quirks of personality rather than just raw physical hotness. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI .

Recommendations & Resources

• Try Incentive-Aligned Dating with Keeper: Miller is the chief science advisor for Keeper, a matchmaking app designed for serious, long-term relationships. It aligns incentives with a “marriage bounty” model—they only get paid if you find a successful match. It also uses psychometrics like IQ and Big Five personality traits to improve match quality 96 So Keeper is trying to do something where there's a couple different models, but one is a marriage bounty, right. Where you sign a contract and you're like, if Keeper can find me a mate, I will pay them a certain amount of money as a bounty. Right. So that means you're perfectly aligned with the company. Like, they want to find you a mate, you want to find a mate, you want to get married. You know, if you go down the path towards that, you start cohabiting, you get married, you have kids, you can specify in a contract we pay Keeper for that. So in that sense, it's much more like traditional matchmaking or, like, I mean. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI 86 They understand iq, they understand the big five personality traits and they actually want to measure these in their clients as accurately and objectively as possible. Because they know, like, it's one thing to claim I'm smart, I'm looking for a smart person, but their clientele is often quite highly educated, quite high income, and they want to be confident. Right. Does this person really have the educational credentials and the intelligence that they claim? Even do they really have like the openness or extroversion or agreeableness or the other personality traits that they claim? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI .
• Practice Jealousy Management: A key to relationship success is having explicit conversations about boundaries and expectations to manage jealousy, especially in situations like business trips or social events 105 Well, another big thing that Justin Mikilsky and I and our team of, I think there's 30 people, co authors on this paper found is that jealousy management tactics are also crucial to relationship satisfaction and success. So the sad thing here is a lot of people in long term relationships basically invest zero thought or energy into jealousy management. And how do I handle situations where, oh no, my wife's going off on a business trip and I think she may or may not be attracted to this other guy and she's going to be at this conference with him and how do I handle that? And they have no capacity for introspection about this or communication about it, or the communication skills to set clear boundaries, to actually say, here's what I'd be comfortable with and here's what I would not be comfortable with. Yes, you can have one or two drinks with them, no, you can't go up to his room for a foot massage. Right? So like being crystal clear about expectations seems like it would benefit a lot of relationships. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI .
• Audit Your Marketing Team: For businesses, Miller advises ensuring your marketing team’s values and personality traits aren’t misaligned with your target customers to avoid costly blunders 114 Yeah, generally speaking, that's right. I've done quite a bit of, of consulting work for, you know, Fortune 500 companies and market researchers, ad agencies, startups, ET and the smart ones understand, anything that gives me a competitive advantage over my rivals is valuable. And in particular, if they are aware of the kind of political biases that dominate marketing. It's very female dominated, it's very leftist, it's very high openness people. It's a lot about empathy signaling, right? If you can get them to understand that actually your customers, oh, and also your workers and investors aren't necessarily the same distribution of personality traits that you guys in marketing are, that can help enormously. It could have helped, for example, Cracker Barrel, right, the restaurant chain which got into huge trouble recently by completely misunderstanding their customer base, right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI .

Notable Quotes

“Their economic model is you pay us a monthly subscription fee and we give you a lot of feedback and kind of fake sexual validation.” 82 So if you go on Tinder or hinge or match.com, their economic model is you pay us a monthly subscription fee and we give you a lot of feedback and kind of fake sexual validation. Like, hopefully you get some likes. But by the way, only 1 in 5 million swipes is going to result in a marriage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI

“We’ve learned an awful lot about human nature from social media in the last 20 years in terms of how people argue, what people are influenced by the extreme importance of social validation as part of the human motivational system.” 80 But in the realm of fantasy as manifest in these cultural artifacts, right. You can, you can get insight into that. Likewise, you know, porn, love it or hate it, is an extremely rich set of insights into the sexual psychology of both men and women. And we've learned an awful lot about human nature from social media in the last 20 years in terms of how people argue, what people are influenced by the extreme importance of social validation as part of the human motivational system. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI

Must-Listen Clip

Why it’s a must-listen: This segment brilliantly dissects the broken business model of modern dating apps. Miller explains why subscription-based apps are incentivized to keep you single and contrasts it with Keeper’s “marriage bounty” model, which aligns the company’s success with the user’s. It’s a crystal-clear look at how incentives shape technology and our relationships 100 So if you go on Tinder or hinge or match.com, their economic model is you pay us a monthly subscription fee and we give you a lot of feedback and kind of fake sexual validation. Like, hopefully you get some likes. But by the way, only 1 in 5 million swipes is going to result in a marriage. Is that literally the number? Yeah, it's 1 in 5 million. Holy moly. I would have thought 1 in 10,000. Yeah. No, it's a very inefficient way to find a spouse. But anyway, their incentives are to keep you on the app as long as possible and for you to fail to find a mate. Because if you find a monogamous mate, you're going to leave the app and your monthly subscription fee goes away. So Keeper is trying to do something where there's a couple different models, but one is a marriage bounty, right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI 96 So Keeper is trying to do something where there's a couple different models, but one is a marriage bounty, right. Where you sign a contract and you're like, if Keeper can find me a mate, I will pay them a certain amount of money as a bounty. Right. So that means you're perfectly aligned with the company. Like, they want to find you a mate, you want to find a mate, you want to get married. You know, if you go down the path towards that, you start cohabiting, you get married, you have kids, you can specify in a contract we pay Keeper for that. So in that sense, it's much more like traditional matchmaking or, like, I mean. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguFPVCDzxI .

The Chris Williamson Podcast: Why Men Have a Hard Time Understanding Women

Episode Overview Dr. John Delony joins Chris Williamson to discuss the common anxieties and frustrations he hears from female callers on his show 69 But the thing that I would say to guys that this is a huge, huge, like blue ocean for them for is you have somebody that's been in counseling for like fucking forever and does a call in show with millions and millions of people that watch it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI . The core theme is that many women feel they were “sold a bill of goods”—that following a prescribed life path of career success or relationship milestones hasn’t led to the deep sense of security they crave 81 But I think women were sold a bill of goods also. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI 75 But really the thing is, I'm desperately seeking this feeling that this is going to be okay. This rooted sense of anchored in. And it's. It's a constant, constant, constant. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI . A major source of pain is watching their male partners disengage, gain weight, and retreat into video games or porn, leaving them feeling alone and watching their partner “die in front of me” 79 And I do get like, hey, my husband's gained 150 pounds over the last few years. But as you dig into that, it's almost always I'm watching my husband die in front of me, right? And that's, that's usually the question, like, how do I keep my. I'm watching him die and I can't be a part of this anymore. And yes, he's not attractive anymore. And yes, he walks around his whitey tidies and he's. It's like, it's not a pretty sight. But the deeper question is, I'm watching. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI 70 But as you dig into that, it's almost always I'm watching my husband die in front of me, right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI .

Key Insights

• The Search for an Anchored Feeling: The primary driver behind many women’s calls isn’t a specific problem but a desperate search for a feeling that “this is going to be okay.” Despite achieving career success or financial security, this feeling of being anchored remains elusive 71 But really the thing is, I'm desperately seeking this feeling that this is going to be okay. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI .
• Watching a Partner Wither is a Core Pain Point: A recurring theme is women watching their husbands or partners physically and emotionally decline. The complaint isn’t just about lost attraction, but the deeper sorrow of seeing the person they love disengage from life 68 But as you dig into that, it's almost always I'm watching my husband die in front of me, right? And that's, that's usually the question, like, how do I keep my. I'm watching him die and I can't be a part of this anymore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI .
• The Bar for Men is Incredibly Low: Both hosts agree that in the current dating and relationship landscape, the bar for men is so low that basic acts of presence, engagement, and responsibility are seen as extraordinary. This presents a huge opportunity for men willing to step up 78 But the thing that I would say to guys that this is a huge, huge, like blue ocean for them for is you have somebody that's been in counseling for like fucking forever and does a call in show with millions and millions of people that watch it. And this is one of the biggest problems. Look at how low the bar is, dude. I tell my son that's how low the bar is. I tell him all the time, you, you can, you can have it all. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI 72 I tell my son that's how low the bar is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI .
• Core Concerns Aren’t Superficial: Despite online discourse, Dr. Delony reports he rarely gets calls from women complaining about a man’s height or income. The real issues are about connection, engagement, and a partner’s vitality 73 But personally, I've never had somebody call and say there's just too many short men out there. I've not had anybody call and say this person doesn't make this much money. I haven't. I haven't got that call. And maybe it's. Maybe it's veiled and, and people are being whatever. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI .

Recommendations & Resources

• For Men: Show Up: The most direct takeaway is that the opportunity to be a great partner is massive because the bar is so low. Being present, engaged, and taking care of your health can have an outsized positive impact on a relationship 77 The bar is set so low, dude. It is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI .
• Address Decline Directly: If a partner is showing signs of physical or emotional withdrawal, the conversation suggests addressing it as a fundamental issue of health and connection, rather than just a superficial problem of attraction 68 But as you dig into that, it's almost always I'm watching my husband die in front of me, right? And that's, that's usually the question, like, how do I keep my. I'm watching him die and I can't be a part of this anymore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI .
• Sponsor Recommendation: The episode features a sponsorship from Element, an electrolyte drink mix, presented as a way to stay hydrated without sugar or junk 67 And now Lemonade and Salt Element just dropped their brand new lemonade salt flavor. And it's everything that you want on a hot day. Tart, salty and stupidly refreshing. It's like a grown up lemonade stand in a stick with actual function behind the flavor. Because let's be real, if you're sweating through workouts, sauna sessions, or just walking to your car in July, then you are losing more than just water. Element replaces the electrolytes that your body actually needs. Sodium, potassium and magnesium with no sugar, no junk and no nonsense. I've been drinking it every single day for years. And in the Texas heat, this lemonade flavor in a cold glass of water is unbelievably good. Best of all, they've got a no questions asked refund policy with an unlimited duration. So you can buy it and try it for as long as you want. And if you don't like it for any reason, they'll give you your money back. And you don't even need to return the box. That's how confident they are that you'll love it. Plus, they offer free shipping in the US Right now you can get a free sample pack of Element's most popular flavors with your first purchase by going to the link in the description below or heading to drinklmnt.com that's drinklmnt.com modernwisdom thank you very much for tuning in. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI .

Notable Quotes

“I’m desperately seeking this feeling that this is going to be okay.” 71 But really the thing is, I'm desperately seeking this feeling that this is going to be okay. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI

“I’m watching my husband die in front of me.” 70 But as you dig into that, it's almost always I'm watching my husband die in front of me, right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI

Must-Listen Clip

Why it’s a must-listen: This segment gets to the heart of the episode’s thesis. Dr. Delony explains why so many women feel a sense of unfulfillment despite following the culturally prescribed paths to success. It’s not about the choices themselves (career, family, etc.), but the elusive feeling of being anchored and okay that these paths were supposed to provide. It’s a deeply empathetic look at a common modern anxiety 76 But I think the deeper question is I did all of these things that they said and why don't I feel better about me or my world or my. The life I've constructed for myself? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI 75 But really the thing is, I'm desperately seeking this feeling that this is going to be okay. This rooted sense of anchored in. And it's. It's a constant, constant, constant. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIehKHjmDSI .

The Joe Rogan Experience: Dave Landau

Episode Overview Comedian Dave Landau joins Joe Rogan for a wide-ranging conversation 14 Joe Rogan podcast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g that touches on everything from his modified Tesla Plaid to the history of Detroit’s Purple Gang 13 But I have a Tesla that will knock your dick into the dirt. Oh, I know. They're fast. It's not just fast. It's fucking cars. Incredible. It's a piece of machinery from the future. What is it? It's a Model S. Okay. But it's a plaid that was sent to a company called Unplugged Performance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g 8 The ice went out. Yeah, dude. They were. The Purple Gang was ruthless, man. I never heard of that before. They were the first. They were probably the first Jewish gang. They had Irish members as well. They were the Bernstein brothers. Their parents owned a shoe store. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g . The most compelling parts of the discussion dive into Landau’s personal struggles, including his harrowing experience withdrawing from SSRIs and his past with heroin addiction, providing a raw and honest look at mental health and the opioid crisis 12 I took myself off of them for five days, and I felt good. And then I got really queasy and really nauseous. Like, my brain started kind of misfiring. So now I'm weaning. Weaning it off a little more correctly, as opposed to just going cold turkey. So after five days, like, what is happening where it makes your brain crazy? Like, I was stuttering, I was slipping up. I was having trouble seeing. Did you, like, go online and see if there's any correct way to do this? Yeah, they said to wean it off or whatever your thing is, take that and then bust a pill in half. Take that for seven days. Bust a pill in half. Take that for seven days. And that's what I'm doing now. And I already feel better being on less. But I was told for the last 10 years that that's what I should be on, and I think it's had a very negative effect to me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g 10 Well, yeah, no, I did it before once. It was good. Was it? Oh, yeah. What was it like? Did you shoot it or snort it? I snorted it. No, sorry. I snorted it and then I smoked black tar heroin, and one time I shot it. So three. Wow. What was the best one? The shooting it. Yeah. That's why they do it. That was in. That was majestic. Was it? Yeah. Dude. What's it like? The most calming, wonderful. God, this sounds like I'm promoting it also with my voice. Like, it's the most calming, wonderful sensation you've ever had. You're gonna love it, kids. It felt amazing. Like, you. Every problem you've ever had is gone, and you feel nothing but euphoria, which is different than, like, oxy and some other stuff, which kind of just makes you feel, to me, loose and tired. I mean, this makes you tired. You're crashing out, but you're also getting a feeling that was really, really, like warm and exciting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g .

Key Insights

• SSRI Withdrawal Can Be Brutal: Landau shares his intense experience trying to get off Zoloft, which included stuttering, vision problems, and “brain zaps.” He found that going cold turkey was a disaster and that a slow, methodical taper (splitting pills weekly) was the only way to manage the withdrawal symptoms 5 I took myself off of them for five days, and I felt good. And then I got really queasy and really nauseous. Like, my brain started kind of misfiring. So now I'm weaning. Weaning it off a little more correctly, as opposed to just going cold turkey. So after five days, like, what is happening where it makes your brain crazy? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g 6 Did you, like, go online and see if there's any correct way to do this? Yeah, they said to wean it off or whatever your thing is, take that and then bust a pill in half. Take that for seven days. Bust a pill in half. Take that for seven days. And that's what I'm doing now. And I already feel better being on less. But I was told for the last 10 years that that's what I should be on, and I think it's had a very negative effect to me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g .
• The Fentanyl Crisis has Economic Roots: The conversation explores how the opioid crisis evolved. The cartels allegedly began lacing weak heroin with fentanyl because their poppy fields were becoming depleted, and the demand created by the prescription opioid crisis provided a ready market for a more potent product 11 Because these kids are getting fentanyl because I had this guy, Ed Calderon the other day, okay, who's a expert in the cartels, and he said they started adding fentanyl because they had grown so many poppies that the soil had been depleted, so the heroin was very weak. So to make the heroin more potent, they started adding fentanyl. Is that what it was? And the desire for all that stuff was all because of the Sackler Brothers. So the Sackler Brothers, when. When they created this opiate crisis in America, which did not exist before, where everybody's hooked on these fucking pills, then they start cracking down the laws. So now you have a demand and you don't have a supply. And then along comes the cartel and starts making pills, and they start making pills with fentanyl in them because their heroin's not that strong. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g .
• The Seduction of Heroin is its Completeness: In a moment of stark honesty, Landau describes his experience shooting heroin as “majestic” and feeling a sense of complete euphoria where every problem vanished. He immediately contrasts this with the tragic overdose of the friend who introduced him to it, illustrating the drug’s dangerous allure 10 Well, yeah, no, I did it before once. It was good. Was it? Oh, yeah. What was it like? Did you shoot it or snort it? I snorted it. No, sorry. I snorted it and then I smoked black tar heroin, and one time I shot it. So three. Wow. What was the best one? The shooting it. Yeah. That's why they do it. That was in. That was majestic. Was it? Yeah. Dude. What's it like? The most calming, wonderful. God, this sounds like I'm promoting it also with my voice. Like, it's the most calming, wonderful sensation you've ever had. You're gonna love it, kids. It felt amazing. Like, you. Every problem you've ever had is gone, and you feel nothing but euphoria, which is different than, like, oxy and some other stuff, which kind of just makes you feel, to me, loose and tired. I mean, this makes you tired. You're crashing out, but you're also getting a feeling that was really, really, like warm and exciting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g 9 It was awful, that part. Yeah. And then, then it wasn't. Did you do it with a guy? Yeah. So he had done it before. He did it for me. Yeah. He died of a heroin overdose in his parents kitchen. Yeah, I know. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g .

Recommendations & Resources

• White Boy (Documentary): Landau highly recommends this documentary about a teenage FBI informant in Detroit, offering a real-world glimpse into the city’s history with crime and law enforcement 7 If you see the documentary White Boy, I highly recommend. Yeah. See a teenage drug informant for the FBI. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g .
• Gradual SSRI Tapering: Based on his experience, Landau’s story serves as a cautionary tale and a practical guide for anyone considering getting off SSRIs. The recommended method is a slow, gradual weaning process done under medical supervision 6 Did you, like, go online and see if there's any correct way to do this? Yeah, they said to wean it off or whatever your thing is, take that and then bust a pill in half. Take that for seven days. Bust a pill in half. Take that for seven days. And that's what I'm doing now. And I already feel better being on less. But I was told for the last 10 years that that's what I should be on, and I think it's had a very negative effect to me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g .
• Dave Landau’s Book: Landau mentions his memoir, Party of One, a Fuzzy Memoir, which delves into many of the personal stories discussed in the episode 1 And also, yeah, I guess I brought up my book, Party of One, a Fuzzy Memoir. It did really well on Amazon. Nice. And yeah, it's. A lot of people have enjoyed it, and a lot of the stories will be much funnier to you than they were for me to live. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g .

Notable Quotes

“I took myself off of them for five days, and I felt good. And then I got really queasy and really nauseous. Like, my brain started kind of misfiring.” 4 I took myself off of them for five days, and I felt good. And then I got really queasy and really nauseous. Like, my brain started kind of misfiring. So now I'm weaning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g

“Every problem you’ve ever had is gone, and you feel nothing but euphoria.” 3 Every problem you've ever had is gone, and you feel nothing but euphoria, which is different than, like, oxy and some other stuff, which kind of just makes you feel, to me, loose and tired. I mean, this makes you tired. You're crashing out, but you're also getting a feeling that was really, really, like warm and exciting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g

Must-Listen Clip

Why it’s a must-listen: This is a raw and valuable firsthand account of the challenges of psychiatric medication withdrawal. Dave Landau describes the severe physical and neurological symptoms he experienced trying to quit SSRIs cold turkey, and then explains the slow, methodical weaning process that is helping him get off the medication safely. It’s a powerful segment for anyone who has been on SSRIs or knows someone who has 12 I took myself off of them for five days, and I felt good. And then I got really queasy and really nauseous. Like, my brain started kind of misfiring. So now I'm weaning. Weaning it off a little more correctly, as opposed to just going cold turkey. So after five days, like, what is happening where it makes your brain crazy? Like, I was stuttering, I was slipping up. I was having trouble seeing. Did you, like, go online and see if there's any correct way to do this? Yeah, they said to wean it off or whatever your thing is, take that and then bust a pill in half. Take that for seven days. Bust a pill in half. Take that for seven days. And that's what I'm doing now. And I already feel better being on less. But I was told for the last 10 years that that's what I should be on, and I think it's had a very negative effect to me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g 2 Like, I was stuttering, I was slipping up. I was having trouble seeing. Did you, like, go online and see if there's any correct way to do this? Yeah, they said to wean it off or whatever your thing is, take that and then bust a pill in half. Take that for seven days. Bust a pill in half. Take that for seven days. And that's what I'm doing now. And I already feel better being on less. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k8xnF1tg-g .

Mind, Brain & Performance

This week, two conversations explored the outer limits of human achievement and the inner workings of the brain that drive it. First, legendary climber Alex Honnold breaks down the mindset required for impossible goals, followed by a neurosurgeon’s fascinating tour of the dreaming brain.

How to Set & Achieve Massive Goals with Alex Honnold (Andrew Huberman Podcast)

Episode Overview

Professional rock climber Alex Honnold, famed for his ropeless ascent of El Capitan documented in Free Solo 53 And focus of the incredible movie Free. Solo, which if you haven't seen, you absolutely should watch. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY , joins Andrew Huberman to discuss the intricate balance of intrinsic and extrinsic motivation 52 So basically I think climbing is always intrinsically motivated. I mean, since I've. I started climbing when I was a child, I've always loved climbing. I love the movement of climbing. I love the feeling of it. I love the whole experience, you know, just everything about it is great. But then, you know, now as a professional climber, obviously there is that extrinsic motivation as well where you're like, oh, this is how I make a living. And so I think with the film Free Solo, you know, is a really interesting balance of the two where it's like, this is something that I'd love to do for myself. And even if no one else in the world existed, I'd want to do this thing. But then you also know that if you're. If the film turns out well, which it did, you know, it's going to be great for your career, it's going to be great for whatever. And so like there is that extrinsic motivation as well. And so then you're always trying to parse out, like, which part is which. And you know, because you don't, particularly with free soloing, you don't want to be too extrinsically motivated because you don't want to get pushed into something that you're not prepared for, that you shouldn't be doing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY , the psychology of risk, and the years of methodical preparation that underpin his monumental achievements. They explore how coming to terms with mortality can be a powerful motivator for living a fuller life 27 We also discuss how coming to terms with one's own mortality is actually one of the best motivators for building a great life and why most people hide from that reality and as a result end up living much smaller lives than they otherwise would. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY and unpack the physical and mental training that makes the seemingly impossible possible.

Key Insights

• Risk is often misperceived by outsiders. Honnold explains that some of his most terrifying moments have happened while using a rope, as it encourages pushing into unknown, dangerous territory. A well-rehearsed free solo on easier terrain can be significantly safer than a hard, roped climb 34 You know, like, there's always risk involved in climbing, because even if you have a rope on, depending how far you're going above your last piece of gear and you know, what the train is like and whether or not the rock is good and all these other factors, you know, you're more or less safe. And so I think people look at free soloing as, like, this binary. Like, if you don't have a rope that's dangerous and you're kind of like, well, anytime you're climbing, there are dangers or there could be, and you're constantly evaluating those and trying to mitigate them. So I think that's. That's the big misperception, because easy free soloing is probably like, if I'm somebody, you know, who's like, an expert rock climber or whatever, I've been climbing 30 years. If I'm on an easy free solo, that's almost certainly safer than a very hard. Certain types of hard climbing with a rope on, you know, and most of my scariest experiences as a climber actually have been with a rope on. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY 24 You know, like, there's always risk involved in climbing, because even if you have a rope on, depending how far you're going above your last piece of gear and you know, what the train is like and whether or not the rock is good and all these other factors, you know, you're more or less safe. And so I think people look at free soloing as, like, this binary. Like, if you don't have a rope that's dangerous and you're kind of like, well, anytime you're climbing, there are dangers or there could be, and you're constantly evaluating those and trying to mitigate them. So I think that's. That's the big misperception, because easy free soloing is probably like, if I'm somebody, you know, who's like, an expert rock climber or whatever, I've been climbing 30 years. If I'm on an easy free solo, that's almost certainly safer than a very hard. Certain types of hard climbing with a rope on, you know, and most of my scariest experiences as a climber actually have been with a rope on. Because with a rope, you're much more willing to push yourself into unknown terrain because you're kind of like, surely there'll be something good just around the corner. And so you keep going around the corner and you keep not getting to good gear, and you're like, holy shit. It's getting scarier and scared. Are we allowed to curse? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY .
• Massive goals are built on small, consistent efforts. Big achievements like the El Capitan solo are the result of years of incremental progress. Honnold has kept a detailed climbing journal since 2005, logging every climb to track his progress and set daily challenges 32 You know, I have my climbing journal goes back to 2005 or 6 or something. So basically everything I've ever climbed is logged with, you know, difficulty and times and whatever. And so I'm constantly trying to tick things as a climber, you know, just like, to do new climbs that I haven't done before. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY 31 But it's nice for me to have a reason for me to try my hardest for that particular day of climbing. And I think that the big goals come as a result of all those little things, you know, like if day by day you're constantly doing something that's a little bit new, a little bit different, a little bit harder, you know, whatever seems like the appropriate challenge for that day. I think that looking back at 20 years of climbing outside nonstop, that the big things have just come as a natural outgrowth of all those little things. You do like enough little things all the time and then every once in a while something big happens. And so I don't know, but I have to do lists going back years of goals and all these aspirations and some years I only do half of them, some years I do a third of them. And then something like free selling all cap sat on a list like that literally for years and it kept floating to the next year, to the next year. Because you get into Yosemite, you look at the wall and you're like, nah, that's not, you know, you're like totally out of the question. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY .
• Mastery involves achieving an ‘autopilot’ state. For the most difficult parts of his climbs, the goal is to practice so relentlessly that the movements become automatic, freeing the mind from hesitation and overthinking during high-stakes moments 51 Well, I think the aspiration is to be in that, you know, flow state, whatever you want to call it. But you know, actually, I think even in the film there's some quotes from me saying autopilot and things like I'm, you know, I'm aspiring to be on autopilot, so I'm aspiring to not be thinking too much about it. And that's for me at least, why it required so much practice was to be able to just do something almost by rote, you know, by through repetition, just to do the thing that you've practiced without having to think about it. Because I think once you start thinking about it too much, you're just more prone to not just make errors, but just get caught up in your own mind. And I don't know, I mean, the aspiration was just to do the thing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY . For his El Cap solo, he memorized the hardest third of the route completely 39 As a climber, in order to free solo el cap, did you memorize sequences or is it more sort of like motifs where you kind of know that you're going to do any number of different things in a given pitch? It depends. So for the hardest parts, I memorized like, for sure, memorized every aspect of it, but that's only the hardest part. So that's maybe like a third of the root and then for the easiest third. And some of it is actually quite easy. Some of it's like even a non climber could climb small sections of the wall. Like there are parts that are quite easy here and there. You know, it's like not the bulk, but. So for the easy part is you just know that you can do it and you don't have to stress it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY .
• The mind can be disciplined to manage fear. Honnold describes the long process of building up to the solo, which required years of preparation and perfect conditions. On the day of the climb, he felt 100% ready, with no room for doubt 40 On the day I was 100%, everything was perfect. I knew exactly what to do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY 43 It's like literally years of building up to it and then months of preparation and everything. But no, on the day it was perfect. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY .

Recommendations & Resources

• Training Strategy: To build strength without burning out, Huberman recommends Pavel Tsatsouline’s method: use a heavy weight you could lift for 7-8 reps, but only perform short sets of 3-4 reps. This avoids muscular failure, allowing for more frequent training and better recovery 28 To me, the thing that has just been the most beneficial is what Pavel Satsulin taught me when he came here, which is take a, a weight that you can maybe do six or seven, maybe eight reps with and do three repetitions, set down and just do many more sets and rest a long period of time. If you have time to do that, that really like that really work those fast twitch motor units. You mean do the, do the reps faster? Well, no, not necessarily. So if you take a weight that you could do maximum eight, like you'd fail somewhere between seven and eight repetitions. You take the weight, maybe even add a little bit and you just do three repetitions. You don't go to failure, but you do many more sets. So you might do let's say some sort of push pull, so like a shoulder press of some sort. And then if you could get eight, you do three or four, but then you go do your pull ups, you might do your sort of ballistic pull ups that we were talking about before. I'm actually getting a lot of progress from those like trying to Blast through and pass the bar and kind of catch it below. I'm almost there. I'm kipping too much when I do it. So I'm doing it, but I'm kind of like throwing myself up there. I'm not doing like a, like a super controlled muscle up yet. Soon, that's the goal. But not training to failure seems to be really beneficial if you don't want to eat into your recovery too much. There's something about hitting muscular failure that's great for generating hypertrophy, but it really, according to Pavel, and I'm finding this too, it sort of teaches your nervous system to reach that static point where you can't move any longer, and it really eats into your recovery ability. So I'm able to now train muscle groups that I used to only be able to recover if I train them once or twice a week. I can train them like three or four days a week and I'm making much more progress overall. But there's no single set where I'm like grinding out that last final rep. That's interesting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY .
• Recovery Habits: Honnold relies on the basics: adequate sleep, good nutrition, and weekly bodywork to prevent overuse injuries 48 No, I like push my 3 year old on the swings, you know, like that's how I recover is I like play with the kids on the swings and, and I try to, I Mean, you know, I try to eat relatively well, I try to sleep enough. Like I do all the basics for recovery, but. But no, I mean, I basically just survive in between. I was actually just joking with somebody that I think, you know, as a, as a 24 year old living by myself in a van, I would have crazy days of climbing and then on a rest day I would like binge watch an entire season of some show while eating an entire flat Oreos. Just like never even leave the, the bed of my van and then the next day go out and like do a speed record on something or just be like, I'm so psyched, you know, and now I'm like, I'm definitely not doing that now. Or at least, no, I haven't done that in forever because I just don't have the time and don't have. Yeah. So I think now it takes a little more effort to recover and it's just a little slower probably. But it's hard to say though, because a lot of that's just having kids and just having different demands of time in life. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY 47 When I'm at home, I try to see this bodyworker in town once a week. Pat. Sweet Pat. He's the Man. And so, you know, I think of that as kind of like a basic. Just taking care of, you know, making, it's like an oil change. It's like making sure the engine runs smoothly. And, and I think as a result of body work like that, I haven't had any major like overuse injuries in years. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY .
• Digital Discipline: To maintain focus, Honnold doesn’t have social media apps on his phone; a friend manages his accounts for him 45 I mean, currently, you know, I have all the social media accounts and things, but I don't have any of the apps on my phone. I have a friend that manages it for me. I like sending all the content to her, but she posts stuff and so it's a nice way to sort of disconnect myself from. From scrolling aimlessly. I don't really have the time anymore anyway. You know, it's like, I'd rather play with my kids than for sure, scroll, you Know, but no, I mean, that's tough. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY .

Notable Quotes

• “Most of my scariest experiences as a climber actually have been with a rope on.” 26 Certain types of hard climbing with a rope on, you know, and most of my scariest experiences as a climber actually have been with a rope on. Because with a rope, you're much more willing to push yourself into unknown terrain because you're kind of like, surely there'll be something good just around the corner. And so you keep going around the corner and you keep not getting to good gear, and you're like, holy shit. It's getting scarier and scared. Are we allowed to curse? Sure, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So, you know, like, even at each. Other, if you want to curse, yeah, perfect. But so a Lot of my scariest experience have been with a rope on. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY
• “You may as well die having done a lot of things you’re really excited about, than die regretting all the things you didn’t do.” 25 And you may as well die having done a lot of things you're really excited about, then die regretting all the Things you didn't do. Totally. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY

Must-Listen Clip

This segment is essential listening for anyone interested in risk assessment. Honnold provides a counterintuitive breakdown of why free soloing isn’t a simple binary of ‘safe’ vs ‘dangerous.’ Listeners will learn how roped climbing can introduce unique and often greater dangers, reframing how we think about preparation and risk mitigation in any high-stakes endeavor 50 You know, like, there's always risk involved in climbing, because even if you have a rope on, depending how far you're going above your last piece of gear and you know, what the train is like and whether or not the rock is good and all these other factors, you know, you're more or less safe. And so I think people look at free soloing as, like, this binary. Like, if you don't have a rope that's dangerous and you're kind of like, well, anytime you're climbing, there are dangers or there could be, and you're constantly evaluating those and trying to mitigate them. So I think that's. That's the big misperception, because easy free soloing is probably like, if I'm somebody, you know, who's like, an expert rock climber or whatever, I've been climbing 30 years. If I'm on an easy free solo, that's almost certainly safer than a very hard. Certain types of hard climbing with a rope on, you know, and most of my scariest experiences as a climber actually have been with a rope on. Because with a rope, you're much more willing to push yourself into unknown terrain because you're kind of like, surely there'll be something good just around the corner. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsOnsPDKKY .

Inside The Dreaming Brain with Dr. Rahul Jandial (Chris Williamson Podcast)

Episode Overview

Neurosurgeon Dr. Rahul Jandial takes us on a tour of the sleeping mind, explaining the modern science of why we dream 22 Okay, why do we dream then? Well, that's a massive question. You know, I mean, I would say the answer should come from the information we now have. Okay, so it's not chilling out, it's burning hot. And this one, I got to unpack it a little bit. When I just said, look, the waking brain and the dreaming brain are equally vibrant electrically, but they must be different. So one of the main things that happens when you go from the waking brain to the dreaming brain state is certain continents in our, in our brain, not like a spot, but a network called executive network. Now they're trying to call it action network, but this is a very specific part of the brain, of the prefrontal cortex. And it needs a little bit of explanation. It's called the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. The frontal lobes are like this. It's kind of on the outside. It's the executive network. It's the conductor that coordinates it. All it responsible for calculation, processing, quick judgment, not a lot of instinct that. And, and it tamps down other regions such as the imagination network and those deeper limbic structures that are our hunch are how our, my, my dog can tell when I'm trying to say, hey, come here, you know, like trying to give him a treat, to trap him, to put him back in his pen because we're going out for the night. That instinct comes not from the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex or of the prefrontal cortex. So, so when you go from the dreaming brain back to the waking brain or waking brain to the dreaming brain, that region is dampened. It's never on or off. It goes from being like 51% active relative to the imagination network to 49. So the dreaming brain has a dampened executive network and a liberated imagination network and movement regions and emotional networks. So when we see the shifts and as the executive network comes down, it's compensated by the imagination network, so you get that equivalent electrical activity. So when you think of it that way, dreams, why we dream has to be explained with what is going on with the dreaming brain. It's hyper visual, it's hyper creative, it's, it goes into tremendous social situations. And my big idea about it is it's not what others have said, like it's threat rehearsal. If you run from a woolly mammoth in your, in your dream, you're better off if you ever encounter one. Or it's a nocturnal therapist. We work out our emotions at night. It doesn't fit the complexity. We have ptsd, flashbacks. So what I think is happening is certain regions of the brain that are generally tamped down for us to perform the tasks of the day or are allowed to be liberated in the safe space of our temporary paralysis of our dreams. Because in the brain, if you don't use certain neurons in certain capacities, they will wither. If I patch a kid's eye for therapeutic purposes, where it lands in the occipital lobe will physically wither. And so I think we dream to maintain our emotional and creative complexity as a systematic process where the brain takes turns in a 24 hour cycle being executive network dominant and imagination network dominant. So all those, all those capacities there for us for the next environmental event we're not prepared for. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU . He debunks old myths and presents a compelling theory: dreaming is a vital process where our brain’s ‘imagination network’ is liberated while the logical ‘executive network’ is dampened. This nightly cycle is crucial for maintaining our emotional and creative complexity, essentially preventing our more intuitive faculties from withering away from disuse 21 So what I think is happening is certain regions of the brain that are generally tamped down for us to perform the tasks of the day or are allowed to be liberated in the safe space of our temporary paralysis of our dreams. Because in the brain, if you don't use certain neurons in certain capacities, they will wither. If I patch a kid's eye for therapeutic purposes, where it lands in the occipital lobe will physically wither. And so I think we dream to maintain our emotional and creative complexity as a systematic process where the brain takes turns in a 24 hour cycle being executive network dominant and imagination network dominant. So all those, all those capacities there for us for the next environmental event we're not prepared for. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU .

Key Insights

• Dreaming is a brain maintenance program. The brain isn’t resting during sleep; it’s intensely active 18 And what happens when you sleep is not rest. It's a different type of neuronal activity. The, your body might be resting, your heart might slow down a little bit. The liver's cool, body's cool, but the brain's on fire. And just to, just to put it out there, as a surgeon, when I've moved livers between moms to kids, you could take a piece of liver from mom and move it to a kid. I've transplanted hearts in training. We're not really reconnecting the nerves again. The bodily tissue is a little bit autonomous. Sleep is not really for the body. I'm not saying that sleep isn't good for you. I'm not saying sleep shouldn't be a performance goal. I'm not saying that. I'm saying when our bodies sleep, it's our brain that builds the sleep pressure. And when we sleep, what does the brain do? That's the most vibrant thing it does. It dreams. So I think dreaming is an essential feature of, of preserving a healthy brain and healthy mind. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU . Dr. Jandial argues dreams serve to exercise emotional and creative neural circuits that are suppressed during our waking, task-focused lives, ensuring those capacities remain robust 11 And so I think we dream to maintain our emotional and creative complexity as a systematic process where the brain takes turns in a 24 hour cycle being executive network dominant and imagination network dominant. So all those, all those capacities there for us for the next environmental event we're not prepared for. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU .
• The dreaming brain has a different operating system. The shift from waking to dreaming involves dampening the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (the ‘executive network’ responsible for logic and calculation) and activating imaginative and emotional networks. This explains why dreams are often bizarre and emotional, and why we rarely do math in them 10 And this one, I got to unpack it a little bit. When I just said, look, the waking brain and the dreaming brain are equally vibrant electrically, but they must be different. So one of the main things that happens when you go from the waking brain to the dreaming brain state is certain continents in our, in our brain, not like a spot, but a network called executive network. Now they're trying to call it action network, but this is a very specific part of the brain, of the prefrontal cortex. And it needs a little bit of explanation. It's called the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. The frontal lobes are like this. It's kind of on the outside. It's the executive network. It's the conductor that coordinates it. All it responsible for calculation, processing, quick judgment, not a lot of instinct that. And, and it tamps down other regions such as the imagination network and those deeper limbic structures that are our hunch are how our, my, my dog can tell when I'm trying to say, hey, come here, you know, like trying to give him a treat, to trap him, to put him back in his pen because we're going out for the night. That instinct comes not from the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex or of the prefrontal cortex. So, so when you go from the dreaming brain back to the waking brain or waking brain to the dreaming brain, that region is dampened. It's never on or off. It goes from being like 51% active relative to the imagination network to 49. So the dreaming brain has a dampened executive network and a liberated imagination network and movement regions and emotional networks. So when we see the shifts and as the executive network comes down, it's compensated by the imagination network, so you get that equivalent electrical activity. So when you think of it that way, dreams, why we dream has to be explained with what is going on with the dreaming brain. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU 9 Let me give you one specific example that I thought was really fresh when I was asked to prepare this book was when you look at thousands and thousands of dream reports, not yours or mine, but mine feel wild, yours must feel wild. But you start to see that very few people report doing math in their dreams. I'm not saying like somebody's going to call in or write answer. Yeah, but it's not like nightmares, 100% reported. It's not like erotic dreams, sexual dreams, over 90%, teeth falling out, being chased, flying. These are common dreams. Right. Math is very rarely reported. And what I like is, okay, if I take hundreds of years of patterns of dream reports, basically surveys, or Aristotle's comment about lucid dreams. Now with modern neuroscience, it makes sense. If the executive network is. Is dampened, that does calculation. It kind of makes sense to me that very few reports of math occur in dream reports like that fits. Executive network goes down, reports of math go down. Imagination network is liberated. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU .
• Nightmares can be a developmental tool. In children, the universal emergence of nightmares around ages 4-6 coincides with the development of the brain’s ‘default mode network.’ Nightmares might help forge a sense of self versus other, a key step in social cognition 20 They had families allow their children to be woken up for, like, 22 years and report, like, what they're dreaming about different times and like, when they were two or three, like, it's just like. It's a blanket. It's. It's not very dynamic. It's not. Not a lot of movement. And then around 4 and 5, six nightmares arrive for every child. It's rare to find. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU 19 And what happens around that age of 4, 5 and 6 is also the development of something called the default mode network. Like, until then, children have a hard time reading minds. They can't tell if smiling uncle means well or means harm. And that capacity arrives at the same time as nightmares. And so my big hypothesis, it'll be hard to prove, is that nightmares create a sense of self versus other by having these harrowing, difficult experiences. It sort of creates that the world around me is separate from who I am. And this engagement, monsters and different things creates this default mode network that allows us to start to see ourselves as separate from the world around us and to be a little bit more critical in evaluating the threats and the people and their intentions around us. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU . In adults, a sudden increase in nightmares can act as a ‘thermometer’ for underlying stress 6 The concrete example I will give is some people who are feeling well, feeling like they're coping well, will have a return, will have nightmares pop up in their lives which serve as sort of a thermometer. And so the nightmares, if they're progressive, like headaches, occasional nightmare is whatever it is, occasional headache is whatever it is. But if there's a progressive uptick in nightmares, that can happen while the patient is having, the person's having such a fantastic life during the day. So that can be sort of a warning sign or a signal that maybe you're not coping well. So I think we're just starting to get into those features of maybe people's dream life should be part of the vital signs. When I started training, it was like blood pressure and temperature. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU .
• Brain health is actionable. Dr. Jandial outlines five pillars for brain longevity: maintaining cardiovascular health, consuming omega-3s for myelin production, intermittent fasting to engage ketone metabolism, daily movement, and consistent cognitive challenges 16 Five key things to do or a handful of key things to do is one, you got to keep the arteries open. We've been talking about the beautiful brain. You have four arteries coming up. They get into this beautiful branching pattern. It's exquisite. Parts of them loop over each other. Looks like a chandelier. We call it the candelabra. And they get narrower and narrower so you got to irrigate the flesh. So whatever is good for keeping heart arteries open and kidney arteries open is also good for keeping brain arteries open. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU 15 The reason it's fatty fish and omega 3s is. You mentioned the word myelin before. And so the little, the, the neurons and the axons, the way they make the electricity communicate faster is that the cable is wrapped with a fatty sheath that's called myelin. And then the electricity actually jumps across the little gaps they have and it goes faster than if it is not myelin coated. And thought can actually deposit myelin, preferring that thought to happen again. That myelin sheath is made from omega 3s so you, there's a specific fat that's needed for myelin and that's omega 3s and fatty fish you can get in flaxseed and other things too. So keeping the plumbing open, giving the brain the material it needs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU 14 The timing of eating is interesting. I, I do think there's some pretty strong neuroscience evidence of intermittent fasting. I know a lot of diet things out there, but skipping if who, if you have the luxury of skipping breakfast, skipping, going 16 hour windows will, if you don't eat, you're not going to just drop dead. And the brain, the brain is a, a hybrid vehicle. The brain can live off of neurons, can, you know, thrive and, and use glucose or ketones. And so after 16 hours your liver will, will churn out ketones if you haven't eaten. So that's how you live past, you know, the 16 hour window if you don't consume anything. And that switching back and forth in intermittent fasting, the cognitive test now, now we're getting from flesh to mind. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU 13 For my patients, the trajectories of patients who can stand and get up from a toilet and stand and get to the couch is so much better. Being vertical requires postural muscle activity. So what I would say is walking and movement are also cognitive protective. And you mentioned exercise now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU 12 And then the last one is, you got to think, man, you got to challenge yourself. I mean, if, you know, if Usain Bolt, you. You know, you ask them how to run faster. Say you train. You're. You train your biceps. I mean, it's. It's a thinking flesh. If you don't. If you don't push it to the next level of complexity and thought and challenge, not too hard where you quit. Just like video games, if it's too hard to get to, if to level up, we tap out. If it's too easy, we're not engaged. So finding whatever you're engaged in, from puzzles to complex conversations, that needs to be challenged with thought, with ideas, with creativity, with reading those novels you're reading at night. So the fresh content that's engaging and requires you to think, think differently, think wildly, think in ways you haven't before. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU .

Recommendations & Resources

• Acute Stress Maneuver: When feeling overwhelmed by panic or anxiety, immediately pause and focus on pacing your breathing. This physiological intervention can interrupt the runaway feedback loop between mind and body 2 And the simplest thing I can tell you is, like, when you hyperventilate, it creates a feeling of anxiety. Well, you got to take it the other. Other way. The first maneuvers just control your breathing. Nobody knows. The room is just like. You're just like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. You know, this could be. This could run away from me. And so I have my own maneuver that I do in that moment is just stop talking, you know, or. And there's something. I call out, I say, I need 15. And they're like, okay, everybody pay attention. Back to. Back to your positions. That he might say, I need this from the wall. I need this from the wall. And the whole thing is just. Just get that. Get that breathing paced. I'M not talking about one nostril. I'm not getting into all that. I'm just trying to tell you physiologically, if I pace my breathing, I can slow down this swell of fear and panic that's in my guts when things run away from me. I try to use the same thing with a lover and with a conflict. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU .
• Capture ‘Liminal State’ Ideas: Creativity can be mined from the blurry state between wakefulness and sleep. Following the example of Edison, try to capture thoughts from these moments by keeping a notebook handy 8 Inception, the movie was the falling chair was a concept based off, off of Dolly or Edison where they'd be working on some creative project and, and they, he had a key in his hand and a little metal basin. And when he'd fall asleep on rock while rocking on a chair, he'll fall forward, the key would drop and then he'd write down his thoughts. He felt that there was something that could be extracted from that dream entry. Sleep entry state. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU 7 And then when we sleep, exit, which is a time I use quite a bit, is I have the luxury of not always hitting the alarm and I take those last five, ten minutes of thoughts and I write them down first before going on social media or looking at my email. And that seems to be an idea generator for me. I think there's sort of those practical elements that you can do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU .
• Intermittent Fasting: Dr. Jandial highlights strong evidence for 16-hour fasting windows. This practice forces the brain to switch from using glucose to ketones for fuel, a metabolic flexibility that has been linked to cognitive benefits 14 The timing of eating is interesting. I, I do think there's some pretty strong neuroscience evidence of intermittent fasting. I know a lot of diet things out there, but skipping if who, if you have the luxury of skipping breakfast, skipping, going 16 hour windows will, if you don't eat, you're not going to just drop dead. And the brain, the brain is a, a hybrid vehicle. The brain can live off of neurons, can, you know, thrive and, and use glucose or ketones. And so after 16 hours your liver will, will churn out ketones if you haven't eaten. So that's how you live past, you know, the 16 hour window if you don't consume anything. And that switching back and forth in intermittent fasting, the cognitive test now, now we're getting from flesh to mind. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU .
• Neuromodulation: While consumer devices are questionable 1 But it's also very easy to go on Amazon and get one for four night, $4.99 where they got the little headband and being positioned in the same way. So the stuff where it's real is rigorous, it's intense. It's at massive elite centers. Usually 30 days of back to back treatment as well. Yeah. And, and not a 30 day refund like on Amazon. Right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU , clinical Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) is a legitimate and promising non-invasive therapy for conditions like OCD, used to modulate specific brain networks in conjunction with talk therapy 17 Or with, with the tech, with a device that looks the same but is not delivering the same technology. But that. That is the future of mental health is a combination of therapy, magnetic pulsing, occasional medicine, and that as a cocktail. Not just like three different types of antidepressants which were helpful in for people, but a mixture of talk therapy, a mixture of exercise, talk therapy, magnetic pulsing, all non invasive. And if you can get a 10, 20% improvement in what we're already. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU .

Notable Quotes

• “Dreaming is an essential feature of preserving a healthy brain and healthy mind.” 5 It dreams. So I think dreaming is an essential feature of, of preserving a healthy brain and healthy mind. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU
• “The dreaming brain has a dampened executive network and a liberated imagination network.” 4 So the dreaming brain has a dampened executive network and a liberated imagination network and movement regions and emotional networks. So when we see the shifts and as the executive network comes down, it's compensated by the imagination network, so you get that equivalent electrical activity. So when you think of it that way, dreams, why we dream has to be explained with what is going on with the dreaming brain. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwd8UHgulcU

Must-Listen Clip

This is the core of the conversation. Dr. Jandial provides a clear, modern explanation for why we dream, moving beyond Freud and folk theories. You’ll learn about the dynamic interplay between the brain’s ‘executive’ and ‘imagination’ networks and understand how dreaming functions as a critical maintenance program for our emotional and creative selves.

Science, Culture & Ideas

From the deepest questions in physics to the pressing challenges in our public discourse, these conversations tackle big ideas. Physicist Jim Al-Khalili questions the nature of reality itself, while Gad Saad sounds the alarm on what he calls a crisis of cowardice in Western culture.

Does Quantum Physics Make Sense Yet? with Jim Al-Khalili (Alex O’Connor Podcast)

Episode Overview

Physicist Jim Al-Khalili joins Alex O’Connor to discuss the beautiful, bizarre, and still-unsettled world of quantum mechanics. He confirms that, decades after Feynman’s famous declaration, the field remains profoundly weird 33 Not all physicists and indeed chemists who also use quantum mechanics would agree on this, I would say yes, it is as mysterious as it's ever been. The fact is, it's also been such a powerful mathematical theory. It's helped us invent all sorts of things. Understanding semiconductors, developing microchips and computers and smartphones and lasers and so on. It works and it tells us how the atomic and subatomic world behaves. But at its heart, it is still mysterious and we do not yet have an agreed upon explanation of how. It's the only theory in all of science that seems to have got away with not requiring a narrative, an interpretation to explain the mathematical formalism. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpLGXAmPEnc . The conversation delves into why quantum mechanics is unique in science for lacking a single, agreed-upon narrative 38 It's the only theory in all of science that seems to have got away with not requiring a narrative, an interpretation to explain the mathematical formalism. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpLGXAmPEnc , the different ways physics conceives of time, and how quantum effects might even play a role in biology.

Key Insights

• Quantum mechanics is a tool without a story. The theory’s mathematical formalism is incredibly successful at making predictions, but physicists still fundamentally disagree on what it tells us about the nature of reality. It’s a powerful set of equations without a consensus interpretation 49 It's the only theory in all of science that seems to have got away with not requiring a narrative, an interpretation to explain the mathematical formalism. We have half a dozen or more different ways of explaining it. And you might say, well, so what? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpLGXAmPEnc .
• Quantum ‘weirdness’ is fragile. The reason we don’t see quantum effects in our daily lives is due to ‘decoherence’—as quantum systems interact with their environment, their strange properties rapidly leak away. This is why invoking quantum mechanics to explain macroscopic mysteries like telepathy is misguided 42 The fact is, these strange quantum phenomena and mechanisms are very much confined almost always to that subatomic realm. They are ephemeral, delicate features that disappear very quickly. In modern terms, we say the quantum effects decohere. The quantum weirdness that being in two places at once business dissipates like heat dissipating from a hot object when you put it in the freezer very quickly once you scale up. So when you scale up to our everyday world, the idea that you can invoke quantum mechanics to describe telekinesis or telepathy or the nature of consciousness or alternative medicines, it doesn't fit with the science. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpLGXAmPEnc 37 The quantum weirdness that being in two places at once business dissipates like heat dissipating from a hot object when you put it in the freezer very quickly once you scale up. So when you scale up to our everyday world, the idea that you can invoke quantum mechanics to describe telekinesis or telepathy or the nature of consciousness or alternative medicines, it doesn't fit with the science. Just because quantum mechanics is weird doesn't mean we're allowed to invoke it to explain any other mysteries we don't understand. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpLGXAmPEnc .
• Physics has a major ‘time problem’. Three pillars of modern physics treat time in fundamentally incompatible ways: as a mere parameter in quantum mechanics, a dimension in relativity, and an arrow in thermodynamics. Reconciling these views is a central challenge in the quest for a unified theory 44 I believe, yes. I think we're struggling to reconcile not just quantum mechanics with general relativity, but also with, with the other big idea in physics, thermodynamics. Yeah, and it's strange that each of those three big pillars of physics describes time in a different way. So quantum mechanics, like Newtonian mechanics, in fact classical mechanics that we learn at school, regards time simply as a label, as a parameter. It's called coordinate time. So it's basically here's an equation that describes how something changes. I can Work out what it states is at a particular moment. Then if I change that T in the equation T for time to some other value, I can crank the handle and work out what that system's doing at that later time or at an earlier time. That's all time is. It's just a parameter that goes into an equation. General relativity says, no, time isn't just a number. Time is a dimension. It's part of the fabric of four dimensional space. Time, it's a real thing. In fact, it's, you know, all times coexist. And then thermodynamics says, no, time isn't a dimension, it's not a number, it's an arrow. It's a direction pointing from past to future in the direction of increasing, so called entropy. So I think until we reconcile these very, very different pictures of physical time, we're not going to be able to reconcile those theories themselves together. I think time may not be the central thing that needs to be solved to get it, but I think it's part of that question. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpLGXAmPEnc .
• Time may be an emergent property. Al-Khalili suggests that time, like the wetness of water, might not exist at the most fundamental level. Instead, it could be a higher-level phenomenon that emerges from the interactions of more basic components of the universe 36 So the idea is that time itself doesn't exist at a fundamental level. It's only when you zoom out that gradually it emerges, that it emerges from something more fundamental. What that something more fundamental is, I think, is still something that we haven't understood yet. I mean, a lot of physicists have tried. There's a famous equation called the Wheeler DeWitt equation, which starts from sort of more fundamental equations and relativity. And it's an equation that doesn't have time at all in it. So it's a fundamental feature of reality. Time doesn't exist. So the fact that we. We perceive things changing in time must be an emergent property of the universe. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpLGXAmPEnc 35 Temperatures of temperature is a very good example. That temperature itself doesn't exist. When you get down to the molecular level, it's just vibrations of atoms and molecules zoom out and you've got something called temperature. The wetness of water is another one. Sure, you'd never appreciate Wetness of water. However much you study a single molecule of H2O, you need trillions of them together for that property to emerge. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpLGXAmPEnc .

Recommendations & Resources

• Read Up on Time: For those intrigued by the physics of time, Al-Khalili mentions his upcoming book, About Time 30 Now I have something I talk about in my book, doesn't come out till next year, but I spent ages trying to of get my head around this. I would wonder whether this fundamental arrow of time is somehow baked into the universe. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpLGXAmPEnc .
• Explore More Quantum Interpretations: The host recommends his previous episode with David Deutsch for a deep dive into the many-worlds interpretation 29 If you enjoyed that conversation, you might like my previous episode with David Deutsch on the multiverse and the many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpLGXAmPEnc .

Notable Quotes

• “It’s the only theory in all of science that seems to have got away with not requiring a narrative.” 38 It's the only theory in all of science that seems to have got away with not requiring a narrative, an interpretation to explain the mathematical formalism. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpLGXAmPEnc
• “Just because quantum mechanics is weird doesn’t mean we’re allowed to invoke it to explain any other mysteries we don’t understand.” 37 The quantum weirdness that being in two places at once business dissipates like heat dissipating from a hot object when you put it in the freezer very quickly once you scale up. So when you scale up to our everyday world, the idea that you can invoke quantum mechanics to describe telekinesis or telepathy or the nature of consciousness or alternative medicines, it doesn't fit with the science. Just because quantum mechanics is weird doesn't mean we're allowed to invoke it to explain any other mysteries we don't understand. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpLGXAmPEnc

Must-Listen Clip

This clip on quantum biology provides a fascinating and concrete example of where quantum mechanics might have a real, testable impact on the macroscopic world. Al-Khalili explains the leading theory of how birds navigate using Earth’s magnetic field, which involves quantum entanglement within a protein in their retinas 41 Quantum entanglement inside a protein called cryptochrome inside the bird's retina is far fetched. But it's the only theory that we can actually explain step by step. You know, there's a whole chain of, you know, your trumpet to the light. There's a whole sequence of mechanisms in the real physical world that start off with this strange quantum mechanism, entanglement that will explain how these birds get directional information. It may not be true, but here is an example. But, but you're looking at, you know, two electrons spinning in different directions within a molecule inside the retina. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpLGXAmPEnc . It’s a perfect illustration of how the quantum realm can connect to the world we see.

Death of the West & The Cowardice Crisis (The Saad Truth)

Episode Overview

In a solo monologue, Gad Saad makes the case that ‘self-serving cowardice’ is a defining pathology of our time, leading to the erosion of Western liberties 74 Books is disappointing, but not nearly as disappointing as your self serving cowardice. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9QrkcscM8k . He contrasts the heroic sacrifice of figures like Pat Tillman—the NFL star who left a multi-million dollar contract to enlist after 9/11 76 So Pat Tillman was an NFL star who, in 2001, after the 911 attacks happened, was offered a contract then to continue playing for $3.6 million, which is $6 million in 2024. And he walked away from his entire NFL career because he wanted to sign up to go and fight against those who had done what they did on 9 11. So this is a guy who's living the luxurious life. He's living the life of a star athlete. He's a star in the NFL. He's making millions of dollars. He. He says, eff it. I'm walking away from all that because the calling to go and serve in the military is greater than any pecuniary desires that I might have. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9QrkcscM8k —with individuals who refuse to engage in dialogue for fear of losing their social media following. He argues that this pervasive fear of association is silencing important conversations and accelerating cultural decline 75 But no, he will not speak to me because he might lose his TikTok and Instagram following. That's how the west is lost. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9QrkcscM8k .

Key Insights

• Cowardice should be the eighth deadly sin. Saad posits that the failure of good people to speak up is what allows destructive ideas to flourish, making cowardice a foundational moral failing 77 Some of you might remember that I've long said that the seven deadly sins should have another sin added to them. Cowardice. Because again, as the old adage, I believe it was Edmund Burke who said at the Scottish philosopher, you know, all that needs to happen for evil to flourish is for good men to do nothing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9QrkcscM8k .
• Fear of cancellation stifles dialogue. He recounts two instances where guests—an antiquarian bookseller and a prominent scientist—cancelled appearances on his show. Their reason wasn’t a disagreement on topics, but a fear of backlash for associating with him, even to discuss neutral subjects like books or science 79 He basically said, well, you know, upon further reflection, you know, even though we may only discuss books, I've built a very large TikTok following and you know, basically I don't want to lose my following by speaking to someone who is as political as you and I don't know which politics. Is it because I hate Justin Trudeau? Is it because I argue that Donald Trump is not the existential threat that all the hysterics think that he is? Is it because I'm anti Hamas, I am pro Israel being allowed to exist as the only Jewish nation in the world? It could be many reasons why he thinks I'm political and dangerous. But he said, you know, I don't want to come on, I'm canceling my thing. I know it must be disappointing for you, right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9QrkcscM8k 78 A very, very well known scientist whom I would consider to be a guy that I greatly admire. I invited him on my show. I mean, our intellectual and scientific complicity couldn't be more overlapping. It's basically we, we support and defend our. All of the things in science and evolutionary theory that one can hope to have in terms of complicity. He told a fellow mutual friend that, you know, he's not going to accept the invitation to come on my show, even though, by the way, I also said to him that we would only discuss scientific matters. The reason why he wouldn't come on the show is because he had been warned by some people that I might be rather favorably disposed to Trump. So a true intellectual hero, a true scientific hero, a man who has helped popularize scientific reasoning, evolutionary theory, is unwilling to sit down with me because he was warned that I don't have Trump derangement syndrome. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9QrkcscM8k .
• Platform safety is prioritized over principles. The bookseller explicitly stated he didn’t want to risk his large TikTok following 79 He basically said, well, you know, upon further reflection, you know, even though we may only discuss books, I've built a very large TikTok following and you know, basically I don't want to lose my following by speaking to someone who is as political as you and I don't know which politics. Is it because I hate Justin Trudeau? Is it because I argue that Donald Trump is not the existential threat that all the hysterics think that he is? Is it because I'm anti Hamas, I am pro Israel being allowed to exist as the only Jewish nation in the world? It could be many reasons why he thinks I'm political and dangerous. But he said, you know, I don't want to come on, I'm canceling my thing. I know it must be disappointing for you, right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9QrkcscM8k . Saad frames this as a tragic example of how the West is lost—not with a bang, but through countless small acts of self-censorship driven by fear of social repercussions 75 But no, he will not speak to me because he might lose his TikTok and Instagram following. That's how the west is lost. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9QrkcscM8k .

Recommendations & Resources

• Embody Courage: The central call to action is to be more like Pat Tillman—to prioritize principles and duty over comfort and personal gain 73 Moral of the story? Be like Pat Tillman. Be like Jimmy Piton. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9QrkcscM8k .
• Read Gad’s Books: Saad mentions that Elon Musk recently tweeted that everyone should read his books, a recommendation he contrasts with the bookseller’s fear of association 72 Respectfully, GS for Gad Sad by the way, just earlier that day or Maybe the day before, Elon had put out a tweet, a lovely tweet, where he said everyone should read Gad's books. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9QrkcscM8k .

Notable Quotes

• “All that needs to happen for evil to flourish is for good men to do nothing.” 77 Some of you might remember that I've long said that the seven deadly sins should have another sin added to them. Cowardice. Because again, as the old adage, I believe it was Edmund Burke who said at the Scottish philosopher, you know, all that needs to happen for evil to flourish is for good men to do nothing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9QrkcscM8k
• “He will not speak to me because he might lose his TikTok and Instagram following. That’s how the west is lost.” 75 But no, he will not speak to me because he might lose his TikTok and Instagram following. That's how the west is lost. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9QrkcscM8k

Must-Listen Clip

This segment powerfully encapsulates the episode’s central argument by juxtaposing two opposing ethics. Saad first tells the story of Pat Tillman’s ultimate sacrifice for his principles, then pivots to read the email from the antiquarian bookseller who cancelled their chat about books to protect his social media brand 71 So thank you for your email that we will not get a chance to have an informative and fun conversation about books. Books is disappointing, but not nearly as disappointing as your self serving cowardice. I have been a professor for 32 years. I've had to incur endless personal and professional costs because of my dogged defense of western liberties and freedoms. I received countless death threats because a wide range of enemies of reason are unhappy with my words and ideas. Etc. As a lover of books, I would have thought that you would be the first to appreciate that without a committed defense of our freedoms and liberties, books would not exist. Respectfully, GS for Gad Sad by the way, just earlier that day or Maybe the day before, Elon had put out a tweet, a lovely tweet, where he said everyone should read Gad's books. So Elon doesn't seem to be concerned with associating with a dangerous guy like me, but the bookseller whom I'm only inviting on the show to simply discuss books. By the way, I've got a pretty large platform. I can promote your, your, your bookshop, I can promote your incredible antiquarian book collection. Maybe I can get some of my very influential and wealthy friends to take notice of your work. So even from a, you know, self interest perspective, you would, you would gain a lot more in not being a coward. But no, he will not speak to me because he might lose his TikTok and Instagram following. That's how the west is lost. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9QrkcscM8k . The contrast is stark and serves as a powerful illustration of his thesis on courage versus cowardice.

The Shifting Landscape of Technology

Finally, a deep dive into the world of software development and the seismic shifts being caused by AI, where one creator argues that learning to ‘vibe’ might be the next essential skill.

Why Everyone Is Vibe Coding Wrong (Theo - t3.gg)

Episode Overview

In what he calls a “Vibe Coding Manifesto,” Theo offers a robust defense of using AI to write code that you don’t necessarily read or deeply understand 70 Thank you all for coming to my Vibe coding manifesto. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA . He argues that far from being lazy or dangerous, ‘vibe coding’ is an incredibly powerful tool for creating the vast amount of ‘throwaway code’—scripts, one-off tools, and prototypes—that developers need but which isn’t worth the time to engineer manually. It’s not about replacing engineers, but about replacing tedious engineering 54 The point isn't to replace engineers, it's to replace engineering, and that is a very valuable thing for it to do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA .

Key Insights

• ‘Vibe Coding’ is defined by not reading the output. It’s a subset of agentic coding where you trust the AI to generate a solution and are more likely to paste an error back into the AI than to debug the code yourself. This is ideal for low-stakes tasks 66 But the difference between agentic coding and Vibe coding is that Vibe coding is a subset. Agentic coding is using prompts that use tools to then generate code. Vibe coding is when you don't read the code after and here is where I will drop my definition of Vibe coding. Vibe coding is everything below the bar. Vibe coding is when you're not really reading the code very much and you're more likely to copy paste the error message into the text box than you are to go and read the code directly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA 65 Vibe coding is when you don't read the code after and here is where I will drop my definition of Vibe coding. Vibe coding is everything below the bar. Vibe coding is when you're not really reading the code very much and you're more likely to copy paste the error message into the text box than you are to go and read the code directly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA .
• Most code is disposable. Theo’s central argument is that developers are too emotionally attached to their code. The reality is that for every line that ships to production, many more are written for temporary tasks. Vibe coding is perfect for this ‘throwaway’ work 58 This is a good place to be. This area where sometimes you let tabcomplete help you out, sometimes you use the agentic flows and just review all of the code actively. And sometimes you just don't fucking care. The harsh reality is that the majority of code we write is throwaway code. You might not accept that, but it's true. For every line of code that ships to production, many more get written and deleted, many more never see the light of day at all. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA 64 Vibe code is great because throwing it away never hurts. Engineers get so attached to their code. If you're one of the people raging in my comments section right now, you're probably one of those people because you like the code you write a lot. It hurts you a lot when you have to get rid of it when it doesn't solve the problem right, or it's being replaced with something else. I'm weird because I like when my code is replaced. That means there's something better. Maybe I don't think it's better, but it's better enough that it's being replaced, it might end up being worse and it gets swapped back. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA .
• You must still know how to code. Vibe coding is not for beginners. It’s a productivity tool for experienced developers who could write the code themselves but choose not to because it’s inefficient. It doesn’t replace fundamental knowledge 60 And now I don't even look at the code because I'll go do it on T3 chat, generate a JavaScript quick function that will do what I'm looking for, paste it, run it, and if it doesn't work I go back to T3 chat and say hey, this didn't work so let's do my list of truths Truth one, you still need to know how code works if you want to be a coder. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA 57 Vibe coding very explicitly does not mean you don't need to know how to code. A lot of people were sold this. They were all lied to. They should be angry and we should make fun of the people who keep saying this. I don't believe this future will ever exist. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA .
• A crucial rule: ‘If the tools are better than you, stop using them.’ He warns that relying on AI that consistently outperforms your own ability is a trap that prevents learning. AI should be a force multiplier for your existing skills, not a crutch for your weaknesses 63 If the code that you're writing via the agent in cursor is better than the code you would have written yourself, turn that shit off. It is hurting you. You need to be good enough to write the code yourself, because the point of these tools isn't to go beyond your ability. It's not to be better than you, it's to be worse than you, but more of you. If Right now you're leaning on these tools because you don't know how to solve the problem, you're fucked. But if you're using these because you know how to solve the problem and don't care enough to, then you're good. We'll put that as 0.5. If the tools are better than you, stop using them. Just straight up. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA .

Recommendations & Resources

• Tools for the Modern Coder: Theo uses and recommends Cursor for its excellent tab-completion and agentic workflows 68 The main two are the tab complete, which I love. I really, really like the tab complete in cursor. Even people who hate vibe coding stuff like, you know, Primagen love the tab complete in cursor. It's really, really good. The other way to use it is the agent mode, which is this bar on the left side here it will be on the right. For most people I shift them because I want you to be able to read this part when I'm talking about it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA and Coderabbit for AI-assisted code reviews that learn your codebase’s conventions 67 Thanks to AI, my team's been writing way more code recently, but that means I have to review way more code too, which is why today's sponsor's been coming in clutch. Coderabbit is saving our butts with CodeView. I cannot tell you how many bugs they have kept me from shipping. The thing that makes coderabbit different is that it learns your code base. Not like it throws it all in context and magically knows everything. But over time as you tell it things, it remembers them. So when I tell it, hey, we don't care about that. Or make sure you note this in the future it will do it. It's like if your lint rules were receptive to feedback during code review, if you just left a comment and now your code's being linted with that in mind. And it's so cool. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA .
• Strategic Application: Use vibe coding for quick scripts and prototypes (he gives an example of building an SVG-to-PNG converter in 15 minutes 69 So I went and spent under an hour, probably 15 minutes vibe coding an app that lets you upload an SVG and then turns it into a png. Here is a skateboard svg. You can't see it very well because it's black. So Here it is by default, 1200 by 1200 and now I can hit save as PNG and now I have a PNG of that SVG at that resolution. If I want it higher res because it's an SVG as a vector, I can click 8x save it. We're good. Surprise. My CTO has a good take on this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA ). For complex, unfamiliar, or core production code, turn off the AI agents and engage your brain 62 When I have to touch things that my team has rewritten in effect, I turn off the agent. I, believe me, I have felt the temptation. I have heard the siren sing. Theo, you could contribute to these effect parts again if you just open up the agent and tell it what to do. And I don't fall for the siren because I know better. If I want to contribute to the effect parts of the code base, I need to get fucking good at effect. I don't get to code a lot nowadays because I'm busy. Hi. So I haven't had the time to really sit down and learn effect. Because you have to. You have to learn it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA 61 But that's why when I'm touching effect code in my code base, I turn off the agent, I open up T3 chat, and I copy paste things over and ask questions. Because as soon as I have this sidebar open, the temptation isn't to ask it how it works, it's to tell it. Go fix the thing. So even I knowing what the fuck I'm doing realize this and force myself to close the agent, read the code, and if I still don't understand it, copy paste it over to some chat tool and ask about it. Because the temptation will always be there to not learn. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA .

Notable Quotes

• “There’s a lot of code worth having that is not worth writing or reading.” 55 And now I don't even look at the code because I'll go do it on T3 chat, generate a JavaScript quick function that will do what I'm looking for, paste it, run it, and if it doesn't work I go back to T3 chat and say hey, this didn't work so let's do my list of truths Truth one, you still need to know how code works if you want to be a coder. Truth two, there's a lot of code worth having that is not worth writing or reading. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA
• “Vibe code is great because throwing it away never hurts.” 59 Vibe code is great because throwing it away never hurts. Engineers get so attached to their code. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA
• “Vibe coding very explicitly does not mean you don’t need to know how to code. A lot of people were sold this. They were all lied to.” 57 Vibe coding very explicitly does not mean you don't need to know how to code. A lot of people were sold this. They were all lied to. They should be angry and we should make fun of the people who keep saying this. I don't believe this future will ever exist. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TMPWvPG5GA

Must-Listen Clip

This is the heart of the manifesto. Theo lays out his precise definition of vibe coding and presents his two core truths: 1) you still need to know how code works, and 2) a huge amount of useful code isn’t worth the time to write or read manually. This clip provides the essential framework for understanding when and how to use AI coding tools responsibly and effectively.

All-In Podcast: Trump vs The Fed & The US-Intel Deal

Episode Overview

Title: Trump Takes On the Fed, US-Intel Deal, Why Bankruptcies Are Up, OpenAI’s Longevity Breakthrough Guests: The original crew: Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, and David Friedberg 27 It's the original crew. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXMqOobGtQ .

In this episode, the All-In crew tackles some heavy-hitting topics, from the unprecedented firing of a Fed governor to the U.S. government’s game-changing equity deal with Intel. They also debate whether the recent surge in corporate bankruptcies is a sign of a healthy market correction and cap it off with a look at a mind-blowing AI breakthrough in longevity research.

Key Insights

• A New Playbook for Government Funding: The hosts unanimously agreed that the U.S. government taking a 10% equity stake in Intel 26 The US government just took a 10% stake in Intel. Last Friday, Trump announced that the US government would acquire 10% of the chip maker. As we all know, there was this CHIPS act to try to onshore chip manufacturing. There's a lot of chip companies that are US but they don't actually make the chips here in the United States. Most of chips in the world are made in Taiwan obviously by TSMC. And so these grants were created, 9 billion of them were grants. There were also tens of billions in loans. And that was the CHIPS Act. We talked about it here many times two years ago. These grants have been allocated, they were not paid out. So Trump and Lutnick came in and said, hey, instead of giving this money for free, we would like to get something for it. And they are going to get non voting shares. There's no golden share like in China where you get board representation and you can kind of control the board. This will be passive. No board seats, no governance rights. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXMqOobGtQ is a much smarter move than the old model of handing out grants or loans with no upside. They point to past examples like the TARP program and early loans to companies like Tesla, where taxpayers took on risk without sharing in the massive rewards 25 What the United States has always done is we have been the lender of last resort, but we've never participated in the upside that being that lender of last resort has given us as the American taxpayer. So for example, in 2008, you know, we created TARP where we bailed out all kinds of toxic assets. What did we get in return for that? Nothing. We barely got our money back. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXMqOobGtQ 24 There were a series of loans that Obama set up for Tesla, Solyndra and Fisker. A bunch of those companies blew out, didn't pay back their loans. Elon paid back his ahead of time. But the government had no upside. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXMqOobGtQ .
• Fixing Social Security with a Sovereign Wealth Fund: Building on the Intel deal, David Friedberg floated a fascinating idea: what if all equity the government acquires was placed into the Social Security trust fund (OASI)? This could effectively create an American sovereign wealth fund to help solve Social Security’s looming bankruptcy 23 But I would argue that what we should be doing instead, and as I've mentioned in the past, is use what we already have, which is the oasi, the Old Age and Survivors Insurance Fund, which is the trust fund behind Social Security. That's actually where Social Security's assets lie. Today, the only thing in that trust fund is U.S. treasuries, and they're actually a special form of Treasuries. So if you've paid into Social Security, you're effectively loaning the federal government your money. And then they're supposed to pay you back your retirement benefits in the future. Rather than just loan the federal government money, those assets should be held and will become the largest sovereign wealth fund to make strategic investments and grow those assets over time on behalf of those American taxpayers as retirees. So I would argue that the right solution of the three options, form a sovereign wealth fund, sit on the balance sheet with no strategy, instead would be to have that sovereign wealth fund sit within oasi. That would require statutory changes because the Social Security trust funds were set up in the 1930s. And Congress passed an act that said, you know, you kind of got to hold only Treasuries. So we would have to get Congress to kind of revisit that concept. But I do think that if we are going to be in the state where the federal government's playing this outsized role in the market, we should take equity. But we should be very strategic about where that equity goes. And I think the best place to put it is in the Social Security trust funds. And it can kill two birds with one stone. So rather than create new holes in the government, meaning new spending, new debt, creation of new vehicles for us to spend capital, I think we should fill holes. And one of the holes we need to fill is Social Security, which is going to go bankrupt sometime between 2030 and 2033. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXMqOobGtQ .
• Bankruptcies as “Creative Destruction”: While rising corporate bankruptcies might sound alarming 21 According to N S and P Global Report, so far in 2025, we've seen the most post corporate bankruptcy filings since 2010. That was after the great financial crisis you remember, or some of you might have been too young. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXMqOobGtQ , Chamath Palihapitiya argues it’s a long-overdue market correction. He believes years of zero-interest rates created “zombie” companies that are now finally being cleared out, which is a necessary process of “creative destruction” 20 But the second is that we actually haven't had a process of creative destruction in American company formation for a while. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXMqOobGtQ 19 The conclusions that I came to, I think the most interesting is that there were a lot fewer bankruptcies over the last four or five years than there should have been. And I think that there are two reasons. The first reason is that you had rates artificially suppressed at zero for an incredibly long amount of time. And so you had all kinds of companies able to raise enormous, enormous amounts of capital that they probably shouldn't have been able to, or at a minimum should have done it. Much higher rates, which weren't really there because the core rate was at zero. So what that means is that many companies were able to fill the reservoir of money, and then when the core structural business started to fail, they had a lot more oxygen in the tank to survive a lot longer. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXMqOobGtQ .
• AI’s Leap in Longevity Research: David Friedberg shared a huge development from OpenAI, where a specialized model (GPT-4B-micro) designed new proteins that are 50 times more effective at cellular rejuvenation 18 So this week it was announced, amazingly, by OpenAI that they developed a model that they call GPT4B micro. So what they did is they took the GPT4 model and they reduced it down so that they just had like, you know, typical good general knowledge language capabilities and so on. And then they added on a bunch of training data. And the training data that they added on was mostly protein sequences and some biological text data. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXMqOobGtQ 17 They actually got these new proteins to be 50 times more effective than the OSKNM proteins in basically rejuvenation or cellular reset. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXMqOobGtQ . This highlights the power of smaller, fine-tuned AI models to solve complex scientific challenges 16 I thought this was both incredible from a breakthrough perspective for this cellular rejuvenation work, but also on like what you can do with LLMs. I mean this is not like something that people were like, hey, let's use LLMs. And by the way, I think it also shows importantly that we're going to have these fine tuned smaller models for specific applications rather than have one massive AI model that does everything for everyone in every context. People are going to take these base models, tune them and they're going to be far less compute intensive and be extraordinary at specific applications. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXMqOobGtQ .

Recommendations & Resources

The most significant recommendation from this episode is a policy idea: the U.S. should establish a sovereign wealth fund using equity from deals like the Intel one, and house it within the Social Security (OASI) trust fund to secure its future 23 But I would argue that what we should be doing instead, and as I've mentioned in the past, is use what we already have, which is the oasi, the Old Age and Survivors Insurance Fund, which is the trust fund behind Social Security. That's actually where Social Security's assets lie. Today, the only thing in that trust fund is U.S. treasuries, and they're actually a special form of Treasuries. So if you've paid into Social Security, you're effectively loaning the federal government your money. And then they're supposed to pay you back your retirement benefits in the future. Rather than just loan the federal government money, those assets should be held and will become the largest sovereign wealth fund to make strategic investments and grow those assets over time on behalf of those American taxpayers as retirees. So I would argue that the right solution of the three options, form a sovereign wealth fund, sit on the balance sheet with no strategy, instead would be to have that sovereign wealth fund sit within oasi. That would require statutory changes because the Social Security trust funds were set up in the 1930s. And Congress passed an act that said, you know, you kind of got to hold only Treasuries. So we would have to get Congress to kind of revisit that concept. But I do think that if we are going to be in the state where the federal government's playing this outsized role in the market, we should take equity. But we should be very strategic about where that equity goes. And I think the best place to put it is in the Social Security trust funds. And it can kill two birds with one stone. So rather than create new holes in the government, meaning new spending, new debt, creation of new vehicles for us to spend capital, I think we should fill holes. And one of the holes we need to fill is Social Security, which is going to go bankrupt sometime between 2030 and 2033. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXMqOobGtQ .

Notable Quotes

“What the United States has always done is we have been the lender of last resort, but we’ve never participated in the upside that being that lender of last resort has given us as the American taxpayer.” 25 What the United States has always done is we have been the lender of last resort, but we've never participated in the upside that being that lender of last resort has given us as the American taxpayer. So for example, in 2008, you know, we created TARP where we bailed out all kinds of toxic assets. What did we get in return for that? Nothing. We barely got our money back. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXMqOobGtQ

“The substance of this is great, but we are now getting into a situation where it feels like a narco capitalism. Like, this is crazy that the President goes and bullies the CEO of a company… The optics look terrible.” 22 Sometimes the style in which he does something detracts from the actual substance of it. The substance of this is great, but we are now getting into a situation where it feels like a narco capitalism. Like, this is crazy that the President goes and bullies the CEO of a company and then says they're going to be deported and then settles a deal like this. The optics look terrible. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXMqOobGtQ

Must-Listen Clip

Timestamp: (Approx. 34:00 - 41:00)

Why It’s Valuable: This segment is where the conversation transcends a simple news recap and becomes a powerful policy debate. Listening to the hosts break down the U.S.-Intel deal provides a clear picture of a major shift in industrial policy. More importantly, David Friedberg’s proposal to use these assets to create a sovereign wealth fund for Social Security is a truly innovative idea that connects current events to a solution for one of America’s biggest long-term problems.

Lex Fridman Podcast: Dave Plummer on Old-School Microsoft & Creating Task Manager

Episode Overview

Title: Dave Plummer: Programming, Autism, and Old-School Microsoft Stories Guest: Dave Plummer, legendary former Microsoft software engineer.

Lex Fridman sits down with Dave Plummer, the mastermind behind iconic Windows tools like Task Manager and the built-in Zip support 14 The following is a conversation with Dave Plummer, programmer and an old school Microsoft software engineer who helped work on Windows 95 NT and XP building a lot of incredible tools, some of which have been continuously used by hundreds of millions of people like the famed Windows Task Manager, yes, the Windows Task Manager and the Zip Unzip compression support in Windows. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLgZzgpz9Y . This conversation is a fantastic journey back to the intense, high-stakes culture of Microsoft in the 90s, filled with incredible origin stories and a candid discussion of Plummer’s personal experience with autism.

Key Insights

• Task Manager Was a Passion Project: Believe it or not, Windows Task Manager started as a tool Plummer built for himself at home 12 Well, I had the great fortune of working on a lot of things that people are familiar with, and Task Manager is one of those side projects that I started as something that I wanted for myself and eventually came in house. So I started writing it at home and I got kind of the basics up and running, and I was using, I think it's Hkey current performer, Hkey performance in the registry to get the stats because I didn't have access to the internal APIs because I was working from home. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLgZzgpz9Y . He obsessed over making it incredibly small (just 87k!) and robust, and he says the core of that original code is still running on millions of machines today 11 It was a basic set of functionality that I wanted in there, and I got everything I wanted, but I wanted it to be really robust. And so that and small. And the original was like 87k. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLgZzgpz9Y 10 As far as I know, the original code's still mostly all there. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLgZzgpz9Y .
• The Brutal Reality of 90s Debugging: Plummer estimates that 80% of his career was spent debugging and fixing things, not creating them 9 I would say that 20% of my professional life has been creating and 80% has been debugging and fixing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLgZzgpz9Y . In the Windows NT days, this meant staring at raw assembly language—without modern tools—across four different computer architectures (Intel, MIPS, Alpha, and PowerPC) 8 Well, about half your day is going to be spent debugging, and most of that time is going to be spent in call stacks that are in pure assembly language because there's no source level debugging. So it's not like we're in Visual Studio and you hit a breakpoint and it Pops up and there's the source code. You can go look at the source code, but you're looking at the raw assembly dump from the machine at all times. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLgZzgpz9Y 7 We're doing four instruction sets because we're doing Intel, MIPS, Alpha and PowerPC. So depending on which machine it crashes on, you've got an entirely different instruction set that registers and so you get reasonably adept at debugging all four. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLgZzgpz9Y .
• Windows Games Were Secretly Training Tools: Ever wonder why Solitaire and Minesweeper were included in Windows? They weren’t just for fun! Plummer reveals they were designed to teach users essential mouse skills like drag-and-drop and right-clicking 6 Well, those things were included in the OS not as games, but as educational tools to get you to use a mouse. Oh, interesting. So solitaire is there to show you how to do drag and drop. Yeah. And Minesweeper is probably right click. I think you put a flag or something. Not a Minesweeper guy. So each one of them teaches you something. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLgZzgpz9Y .
• Understanding Autism Through “Monotropism”: Plummer provides a clear explanation of his experience with autism through the lens of monotropism—the tendency for the brain to focus intensely on one thing at a time 5 Well, the fundamental theory of thought for autism is called monotropism. And. And basically what that means is that my brain does one thing. It does it very intensely, and then when it's done, I can move on and do something else. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLgZzgpz9Y . This makes deep, focused work a superpower but makes processing multiple social cues in real-time a significant challenge 4 That I don't know what anybody else is thinking. So I know what I would think about this interaction if I was in your position and I was you, and that's the best I can do. But I think most neurotypical people have a sense of, well, Lex probably feels this way or that way because he's acting this way, and his reactions are this, and his facial expressions say this. And that's all kind of lost on me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLgZzgpz9Y .

Recommendations & Resources

• Book: Secrets of the Autistic Millionaire by Dave Plummer, where he shares insights on navigating life, relationships, and career with autism 13 Today he's loved by many programmers and engineers for his amazing YouTube channel called Dave's Garage that you should definitely go check out. Also, he wrote a book on autism and about his life story called Secrets of the Autistic Millionaire where he gives really interesting insights about how to navigate relationships, career and day to day life with autism. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLgZzgpz9Y .
• YouTube Channel: Dave’s Garage, Plummer’s channel where he shares programming knowledge and stories from his time at Microsoft 13 Today he's loved by many programmers and engineers for his amazing YouTube channel called Dave's Garage that you should definitely go check out. Also, he wrote a book on autism and about his life story called Secrets of the Autistic Millionaire where he gives really interesting insights about how to navigate relationships, career and day to day life with autism. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLgZzgpz9Y .

Notable Quotes

On the talent at early Microsoft: “…the one guy who actually knows what he’s doing, his smarter friend, he probably works at Microsoft.” 3 And you know that when you're working at a regular computer company, the one guy who actually knows what he's doing, his smarter friend, he probably works at Microsoft. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLgZzgpz9Y

On his core motivation: “Making cool stuff. I guess, fundamentally what I care about is being able to make complex things that are useful to other people.” 2 Making cool stuff. I guess, fundamentally what I care about is being able to make complex things that are useful to other people, which leverages my abilities in a way that allows me to be creative and to create things that other people can use in a way that if I was limited to painting or sculpting or whatever in the classic arts, I would be hopeless. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLgZzgpz9Y

Must-Listen Clip

Timestamp: (Approx. 1:21:40)

Why It’s Valuable: This segment is a vivid time capsule of what it took to be a systems programmer in the 90s. Plummer’s description of debugging in raw assembly across multiple hardware platforms paints a powerful picture of the grit and deep expertise required. It’s a humbling reminder of the unglamorous, painstaking work that built the foundations of the technology we use today.

Chris Williamson: A Brain Surgeon’s Guide to Cognitive Health

Episode Overview

Title: “DNA Is Not Destiny” Brain Surgeon’s Advice For Keeping Your Brain Healthy Guest: An expert brain surgeon.

This episode delivers a clear, actionable framework for protecting your brain and fighting cognitive decline. The core message is powerful and optimistic: your lifestyle choices play a massive role in your brain’s destiny, far more than your genetics might suggest 40 What role does lifestyle really play when it comes to cognitive decline? Massive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXohKCl0v1o .

Key Insights

• Lifestyle is King: The expert’s central thesis is that “DNA is not destiny” when it comes to brain health 39 DNA is not destiny, especially when it comes to the brain in mind. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXohKCl0v1o . For conditions like Alzheimer’s, the most effective treatments and preventative measures are lifestyle and behavioral changes 38 But whether you have a proclivity or tendency to have Alzheimer's or dementia or not, whether you want to stave that off because you don't want to know based on a new Alzheimer's test, or whether you've been given a diagnosis and you're trying to work through it. The treatment is all lifestyle and behavioral. The medicines are limited. They exist for early diagnosis and Alzheimer's, but the treatment is all lifestyle. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXohKCl0v1o .
• Your Brain is a “Hybrid Vehicle”: The brain can run on two fuels: glucose and ketones 33 And the brain, the brain is a, a hybrid vehicle. The brain can live off of neurons, can, you know, thrive and, and use glucose or ketones. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXohKCl0v1o . The real cognitive benefit of intermittent fasting comes from the metabolic flexibility of forcing your brain to switch between these fuel sources, which can lead to enhanced focus 32 And that switching back and forth in intermittent fasting. The cognitive test now, now we're getting from flesh to mind. People seem to have more focus, people seem to have more. It's not about weight loss, but intermittent fasting. It's letting the brain have glucose and ketones a couple of times a week. That's interesting. So your suggestion here is that all ketones, someone that's doing a full ketosis or carnivore style diet, or somebody that's doing a classic sort of omnivore style diet, which when you're grazing, typically you're not going to drop into ketosis unless you forget to eat carbs for a couple of days or something. You're suggesting that there is a principled brain benefit and neurological benefit to the switching between these two fuel sources. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXohKCl0v1o .
• Exercise Helps the Brain Help Itself: When you exercise, you’re not just helping your body. Movement signals your brain to release its own growth factors, like BDNF, which supports brain health. As the guest puts it, “BDNF is released from the brain for the brain when you exercise” 31 BDNF is released from the brain for the brain when you exercise. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXohKCl0v1o .
• Eat for Your Mind: The MIND diet, which is essentially a pescatarian diet rich in plants and fatty fish, is scientifically proven to preserve cognitive function 37 But the thing that over decades has been proven to preserve or even increase cognitive health, cognitive function is the mind diet, which is the closest thing to it is pescatarian. It's mostly plants, fatty fish. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXohKCl0v1o . The omega-3s are vital for building the myelin sheath that insulates your neurons and helps them fire faster 36 The reason it's fatty fish and omega 3s is. You mentioned the word myelin before. And so the little, the neurons and the axons, the way they make the electricity communicate faster is that the cable is wrapped with a fatty sheath that's called myelin. And then the electricity actually jumps across the little gaps they have and it goes faster than if it is not myelin coated. And thought can actually deposit myelin, preferring that thought to happen again. That myelin sheath is made from Omega 3s, so there's a specific fat that, that's needed for myelin and that's omega 3s and fatty fish you can get in flaxseed and other things too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXohKCl0v1o .

Recommendations & Resources

• Dietary Strategy: Adopt the MIND diet, focusing on plants and fatty fish to provide your brain with the right building blocks and antioxidants 37 But the thing that over decades has been proven to preserve or even increase cognitive health, cognitive function is the mind diet, which is the closest thing to it is pescatarian. It's mostly plants, fatty fish. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXohKCl0v1o 35 Mostly plants will clear out the sludge and the antioxidants. You know, the plants work because they got, they have antioxidants and, and tannins and these things that clear the sludge that these little molecular machines called neurons make. Right. It's. That's why plants are good for your brain. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXohKCl0v1o .
• Meal Timing: Try intermittent fasting by incorporating a couple of 16-hour fasts per week to leverage the brain’s ability to switch between fuel sources 34 The timing of eating is interesting. I do think there's some pretty strong neuroscience evidence of intermittent fasting. I know a lot of diet things out there, but skipping, if you have the luxury of skipping breakfast, skipping, going 16 hour windows will, if you don't eat, you're not going to just drop dead. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXohKCl0v1o .
• Mental Engagement: Constantly challenge your brain with new, complex ideas, conversations, and creative pursuits to keep it sharp 30 And then the last one is, you got to think, man, you got to challenge yourself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXohKCl0v1o .

Notable Quotes

“DNA is not destiny, especially when it comes to the brain in mind.” 39 DNA is not destiny, especially when it comes to the brain in mind. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXohKCl0v1o

“Creative ideation I think is as valuable as just raw processing power. It’s not about doing math and puzzles.” 29 But creative ideation I think is as valuable as just raw processing power. It's not about doing math and puzzles. I think challenge yourself to be creative is is an intelligence in itself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXohKCl0v1o

Must-Listen Clip

Why It’s Valuable: This is the core of the episode, where the surgeon lays out the entire five-pillar framework for cognitive health. It’s incredibly valuable because it’s not just a list of tips; it’s a complete, scientifically-backed system. You’ll walk away with a clear understanding of not just what to do (eat fish, fast, exercise), but why it works on a neurological level, from building myelin to triggering growth factors.

Performance & Decision‑Making

Joe Rogan Experience #2371 — Fedor Gorst

Episode Overview

World #1 pool player Fedor Gorst, now representing the USA, breaks down why today’s game is the toughest ever, how the sport is professionalizing, the mental battle under the shot clock, gear choices (carbon vs. wood), and pool’s global boom from Vietnam to China’s “hayball” tour 44 I'm number one by the rankings. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 51 Metro went out of their own way to make an offer to me and say, you know, you can represent United States. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 16 And the game that you guys are playing right now, the reason why I said I think if you're the best player today, you're the best player of all time, because the conditions are very different for people who don't know, who don't play pool. Okay. If you're going to a regular bar and you're playing on like a bar table, those pockets might be five and a half inches. Well, also in us people are playing on seven foot tables versus we play a bar. They're nine foot tables and the pockets are four inches. And so when you get two cue balls, you try to put them next to each other and try to stick. You can't even get close to sticking them in a 4 inch pocket. It's really tight conditions and I think there's better players now than I've ever seen in my life. And I've been watching pool for 35 years and playing pool for 35 years. I've never seen better players than play today. And I think you're the best today. So in my book that makes you the best of all time. Well, like you said, the conditions are completely different. The game changed even in the last three years, I think the game changed drastically. Yeah, you know, we went, we changed the breaking formats. Used to be one ball on the spot, one with the magic crack, no three point rule. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 8 It's hell because you gotta, you know, make the decision basically right out of the gate, right off the chair. When you're in chair, you already know what you're gonna do because you only have 30 seconds and one extension per wreck, which gives you an extra 30 seconds and sometimes the pressure is really high and when you get completely brain dead, you don't want to be in that position. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 11 I don't think that's the case now because now, for example, I find that maybe advantageous to play with a wooden shaft when you're playing in like a sticky, sticky pool room in Asia where the humidity level is super high. Why not? Just because I don't Know you can move the cue ball around easier, or at least I found it easier. Easier. Interesting. Why easier? Because I've heard the opposite. I've heard it's carbon moves the ball easier. Not in the really sticky condition. Condition. I think when we play, for example, metronome tournaments, everything is brand new cloth, brand new rails, brand new balls. Everything's slick. Perfect conditions. Then I think carbon fiber is perfect. But I think that's the reason why the agents prefer wood as well, because the humidity level is just over, over top. It's really, really bouncy. And that's, that's what they, they used to play back in the day, I guess. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 10 Vietnam right now is probably the most pool playing country in the world. Wow. And how long ago did this start? Maybe three, four years ago. Really? That's crazy. What made it explode in Vietnam like that? I had no idea. For example, Hanoi open, the first major we had in Vietnam three, three years ago. I had no idea or any expectations going to the event. But I always knew that I had some fans because on Facebook, like 40% of my followers are from Vietnam, which always seemed weird. 40%? Yeah. Now it's more. Now it's more. Whoa. So I went over there and I was amazed, Amazed. Like in Hanoi alone, there's 2,000 pool rooms in Hanoi. Just one city. 2,000? Yeah. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 9 It's become really, really popular. Hugely popular, right? Really popular. It's very lucrative, right? Yeah, yeah. Those guys are making big money now in the code Hay ball. Now it's called hay ball, Right. It used to be called Chinese eight ball. So what, what made that game explode in China? They were just throwing big, big money in the game and it really exploded everywhere because now all the English and snooker players, English eight ball players and snooker players are traveling, playing all those tournaments there and maybe top 30 guys now on their tour making good money and they are. I think they are trying to get the pole players to join them as well. A lot of guys will probably do it just for the cheese. Yeah, that's the problem. What is a big tournament in hay ball pay? The biggest one pays 750,000 for first, but they have almost big tournaments every month. They pay 200, 300,000 first. Wow. And small tournaments, you know, they pay 50, but they're happening every two weeks. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI .

Key Insights

• Best‑today ≈ best‑ever: tighter pockets on 9‑foot tables and modern break rules raise the bar; Rogan argues the current best is the all‑time best 14 And the game that you guys are playing right now, the reason why I said I think if you're the best player today, you're the best player of all time, because the conditions are very different for people who don't know, who don't play pool. Okay. If you're going to a regular bar and you're playing on like a bar table, those pockets might be five and a half inches. Well, also in us people are playing on seven foot tables versus we play a bar. They're nine foot tables and the pockets are four inches. And so when you get two cue balls, you try to put them next to each other and try to stick. You can't even get close to sticking them in a 4 inch pocket. It's really tight conditions and I think there's better players now than I've ever seen in my life. And I've been watching pool for 35 years and playing pool for 35 years. I've never seen better players than play today. And I think you're the best today. So in my book that makes you the best of all time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 16 And the game that you guys are playing right now, the reason why I said I think if you're the best player today, you're the best player of all time, because the conditions are very different for people who don't know, who don't play pool. Okay. If you're going to a regular bar and you're playing on like a bar table, those pockets might be five and a half inches. Well, also in us people are playing on seven foot tables versus we play a bar. They're nine foot tables and the pockets are four inches. And so when you get two cue balls, you try to put them next to each other and try to stick. You can't even get close to sticking them in a 4 inch pocket. It's really tight conditions and I think there's better players now than I've ever seen in my life. And I've been watching pool for 35 years and playing pool for 35 years. I've never seen better players than play today. And I think you're the best today. So in my book that makes you the best of all time. Well, like you said, the conditions are completely different. The game changed even in the last three years, I think the game changed drastically. Yeah, you know, we went, we changed the breaking formats. Used to be one ball on the spot, one with the magic crack, no three point rule. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 15 If you're the best player in the world today, you're the best player of all time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI .
• From bar game to sport: top players train like athletes—nutrition, routines, practice; some even argue weightlifting hurts feel and touch 13 Well, it's just changing. It used to be just a game played at the bar, now it's a sport, you know, I think now in the US Everybody's taking the European approach, more methodical, more disciplined, and they treat it as a sport. Right. Especially the younger generation. You know, they see who is more successful on the tour. And if you look at top 10 right now, every one of us, we try our best at everything, you know, when it comes to food, pre match routines, how we practice, how we treat pool as a sport. So I think, yes, definitely, it's changing. And that's why the pool is in a different place where it was. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 50 I was telling you, the worst thing ever for pool is lifting weights. There's nothing worse. I found it myself. It's terrible, for sure. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI .
• The mental game is decisive: Gorst describes a “fear of missing,” counters it with positive self‑talk and refocusing on fundamentals; he shares high‑stakes misses that shaped his approach 43 My biggest demon in my head is I'm Just scared to miss the ball. I'm just. You know, when I'm down on the shot, sometimes my brain goes, well, you're going to. You're going to miss the shot. What are you doing? You're going to miss it for sure. Like, the way you're aiming this shot, you're going to miss it for sure. So my thing is just telling to my brain that I have to stay positive. No, I'm going to make this ball. I'm making this ball, and I. It works for me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 49 So my thing is just telling to my brain that I have to stay positive. No, I'm going to make this ball. I'm making this ball, and I. It works for me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 47 So you just have to switch your focus to your fundamentals. That's what helps me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 1 And I did. I did lose a few big ones like that. For example, I played Josh Filler in Germany in the European Open. It was a really, really big match. You know, the whole crowd is cheering for him. Quarterfinals of the European Open. And I landed on the nine ball. Really weird, but I'm still a big favorite to make the shot. It was like a off angle. I was shooting from the rail. Quarterfinals of the European Open, and I was up 9, 8. Race to 10. And I missed the nine ball just because I was. I knew that I was going to miss. The same things happened in Saudi in. I was. I was up 10 to 3. I think it was last 16. I'm almost straight on. On the nine ball, but I. I just know that I'm gonna miss the ball. Oh, no. I just know that. And I'm down on the shot, and I know the shot clock is running on me. I'm like, no way. I just can't get up. I just can't get up. I don't have enough. I don't know. I don't have enough time. So I missed the ball. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI .
• Equipment by conditions: carbon fiber on slick, brand‑new setups; wood shafts can perform better in humid, sticky rooms 11 I don't think that's the case now because now, for example, I find that maybe advantageous to play with a wooden shaft when you're playing in like a sticky, sticky pool room in Asia where the humidity level is super high. Why not? Just because I don't Know you can move the cue ball around easier, or at least I found it easier. Easier. Interesting. Why easier? Because I've heard the opposite. I've heard it's carbon moves the ball easier. Not in the really sticky condition. Condition. I think when we play, for example, metronome tournaments, everything is brand new cloth, brand new rails, brand new balls. Everything's slick. Perfect conditions. Then I think carbon fiber is perfect. But I think that's the reason why the agents prefer wood as well, because the humidity level is just over, over top. It's really, really bouncy. And that's, that's what they, they used to play back in the day, I guess. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI .
• Global surge: Vietnam’s scene is exploding; China’s hayball offers massive purses (up to $750k for first) 10 Vietnam right now is probably the most pool playing country in the world. Wow. And how long ago did this start? Maybe three, four years ago. Really? That's crazy. What made it explode in Vietnam like that? I had no idea. For example, Hanoi open, the first major we had in Vietnam three, three years ago. I had no idea or any expectations going to the event. But I always knew that I had some fans because on Facebook, like 40% of my followers are from Vietnam, which always seemed weird. 40%? Yeah. Now it's more. Now it's more. Whoa. So I went over there and I was amazed, Amazed. Like in Hanoi alone, there's 2,000 pool rooms in Hanoi. Just one city. 2,000? Yeah. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 9 It's become really, really popular. Hugely popular, right? Really popular. It's very lucrative, right? Yeah, yeah. Those guys are making big money now in the code Hay ball. Now it's called hay ball, Right. It used to be called Chinese eight ball. So what, what made that game explode in China? They were just throwing big, big money in the game and it really exploded everywhere because now all the English and snooker players, English eight ball players and snooker players are traveling, playing all those tournaments there and maybe top 30 guys now on their tour making good money and they are. I think they are trying to get the pole players to join them as well. A lot of guys will probably do it just for the cheese. Yeah, that's the problem. What is a big tournament in hay ball pay? The biggest one pays 750,000 for first, but they have almost big tournaments every month. They pay 200, 300,000 first. Wow. And small tournaments, you know, they pay 50, but they're happening every two weeks. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI .

Recommendations & Resources

• Routine and recovery: daily stretching and resistance bands for upper back/neck; inversion table; cold plunge/sauna for inflammation—claims from the conversation 6 You know, I have my pre match rout routine. I stretch every single day. I do work a lot with like rubber bands, resistant bands. What do you do with them? Basically, you know, I work on my upper back. Oh. So like certain workouts. Certain workouts that will take some pressure off my neck because my neck is where I really feel it. Like my upper back, shoulder blades probably. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 48 Yeah, inversion table. I bought that as well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 5 I do have the cold plunge at home. Yeah. Sauna and all the good stuff. Cold plunge is the thing, man. It just alleviates so much inflammation. Especially if you can do it first thing in the morning. If you could force yourself to do it first thing in the morning, it is the way to go, man. It sucks every day, but if you just do it, you get out of there, you're just like, oh, I just feel loose and free. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI .
• Mental tools: short affirmations (“I’m going to make this ball”) and visualization practice; study pros on YouTube and WNT TV/Matchroom Pool 49 So my thing is just telling to my brain that I have to stay positive. No, I'm going to make this ball. I'm making this ball, and I. It works for me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 7 He would practice sitting on his couch for hours, just practice visualization, Just practice on the table. He would imagine himself practicing in the pool hall, like straight in shots. He wouldn't even go and practice. Whoa, that's weird. Well, that's a weird dude. Yeah, but it worked for him. Well, there's a lot of science to that in terms of like, studies that have been done about visualization and the improvement. And they found that actual real visualization, when you're really sitting down there and visualizing, counts almost as much as practice and in some cases more. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 3 And especially today because there's so much data that's available. Like say if you're a young player and you're learning how to play, you can watch pool on your iPad till 3 o' clock in the morning. You watch matches and you learn, you learn how to play things. You learn like what? Why did he do it that way? Like, oh. And then you rewind it and you go, oh, that. None of that was available to like Mike Siegel back in the day. Or Nick Varner and those guys. Yeah. There's tons of videos on YouTube. There's so much, so much, so much information. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 12 It's an insanely competitive game now and, and shout out to Matchroom. Right. Because Matchroom with Dazone, they'd done an amazing job with boxing and a bunch of other sports. But what they're doing with pool is crazy. It's. There's so many events and it's all over. You can get it on the world nine ball tour. It's WNT tv, right? Yeah, they. So I think they move from dozen to that subscription type. Amazing. It's amazing. And then there's also their Matchroom Pool YouTube channel, which has tons of stuff on it for free. It's like they are elevating the game for sure. And they are the reason why pool is where it's at today, you know, versus where it was five years ago, I think. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI .
• Rules clarity: use a radar/speed gun plus a minimum break speed (e.g., ~18–19 mph) to remove subjectivity 4 I have a solution to that and it makes it more interesting too. Radar. Radar, yes. Speed gun. Yeah. It's an easy solution. I agree. Easy solution. And it makes it interesting. It's a new element that you think about. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 42 I think it has to be higher, maybe higher. 18. And that will also push the players to practice. For example, you wouldn't want to break borderline 18 because it may be under. So players will try to break harder. 19. Closer to 19, maybe harder than 19. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI .

Notable Quotes

“If you’re the best player in the world today, you’re the best player of all time.” 15 If you're the best player in the world today, you're the best player of all time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI

“My biggest demon in my head is I’m just scared to miss the ball.” 43 My biggest demon in my head is I'm Just scared to miss the ball. I'm just. You know, when I'm down on the shot, sometimes my brain goes, well, you're going to. You're going to miss the shot. What are you doing? You're going to miss it for sure. Like, the way you're aiming this shot, you're going to miss it for sure. So my thing is just telling to my brain that I have to stay positive. No, I'm going to make this ball. I'm making this ball, and I. It works for me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI

“You just have to switch your focus to your fundamentals.” 47 So you just have to switch your focus to your fundamentals. That's what helps me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI

Must‑Listen Clip

• Segment: Fedor on beating the “fear of missing” by anchoring to fundamentals; candid stories of critical misses and the shot‑clock effect. What you’ll learn: a practical mental reset under pressure and how to intervene negative self‑talk 1 And I did. I did lose a few big ones like that. For example, I played Josh Filler in Germany in the European Open. It was a really, really big match. You know, the whole crowd is cheering for him. Quarterfinals of the European Open. And I landed on the nine ball. Really weird, but I'm still a big favorite to make the shot. It was like a off angle. I was shooting from the rail. Quarterfinals of the European Open, and I was up 9, 8. Race to 10. And I missed the nine ball just because I was. I knew that I was going to miss. The same things happened in Saudi in. I was. I was up 10 to 3. I think it was last 16. I'm almost straight on. On the nine ball, but I. I just know that I'm gonna miss the ball. Oh, no. I just know that. And I'm down on the shot, and I know the shot clock is running on me. I'm like, no way. I just can't get up. I just can't get up. I don't have enough. I don't know. I don't have enough time. So I missed the ball. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI 8 It's hell because you gotta, you know, make the decision basically right out of the gate, right off the chair. When you're in chair, you already know what you're gonna do because you only have 30 seconds and one extension per wreck, which gives you an extra 30 seconds and sometimes the pressure is really high and when you get completely brain dead, you don't want to be in that position. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT5oTp-3VuI .

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Chris Williamson — What Would You Tomorrow Want You Today To Do?

Episode Overview

Williamson shares a simple, powerful decision model: ask, “What would you tomorrow want you today to do?” It pulls you out of the moment, favors long‑term gains, and strengthens your self‑story 46 Jimmy Carr, good friend, modern wisdom guest multiple times over. And he brought this idea up to Rogan when he was on Rogan's show that him and me had been working on for a little while. And it's the 24 hour you and this is one of the best questions I think, to ask yourself when faced with a decision, which is what would you tomorrow want you today to do? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la4yWGpKOJ0 69 And it's the 24 hour you and this is one of the best questions I think, to ask yourself when faced with a decision, which is what would you tomorrow want you today to do? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la4yWGpKOJ0 .

Key Insights

• Beat present bias: the question depersonalizes choices and creates distance from in‑the‑moment urges 39 And the reason it's so effective, I think, is it rips you out of the present moment. It stops you from relying so heavily on the confused chemical signals coming from your body. Instead, it gives you a bit more distance. It depersonalizes the decision, helps you treat yourself like a friend. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la4yWGpKOJ0 .
• Invest in your future self: decisions compound; optimize for 24 hours/days/months ahead 38 In Peterson language, it forces you to optimize for long term thinking instead of immediate gratification that reminds you that ultimately decisions are not being made for you now, they're being made for you in 24 hours and 24 days and 24 months. You can see our decisions are investments that we make into our future. And the more ruminative and deep of a thinker that you are, the more you need to make decisions for your future self, not yourself, right now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la4yWGpKOJ0 .
• Guard your identity narrative: you live with the story of your decisions longer than their immediate effects 68 So optimizing to gratify your desires in the moment at the expense of the way that you will feel and the story you will tell yourself about yourself in the future is rarely a good deal because you live with the story of your decisions for far longer than the impact of them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la4yWGpKOJ0 37 Decisions are as much about the sort of person that you will tell yourself that you are for having made the decision as the actual impact of the decision itself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la4yWGpKOJ0 .
• Clear but demanding: a near‑clairvoyant filter that leaves “nowhere to hide” 36 And we don't have crystal balls to see into the future. But this is about as close to a tool of clairvoyance as I can think of. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la4yWGpKOJ0 35 Pretty bulletproof, but difficult, right? Very difficult to do because it gives you pretty much nowhere to hide. There's essentially nowhere to hide at all. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la4yWGpKOJ0 .

Recommendations & Resources

• Strategy: before big choices, ask the 24‑hour question (and extend to 24 days/24 months) 67 And it's the 24 hour you and this is one of the best questions I think, to ask yourself when faced with a decision, which is what would you tomorrow want you today to do? And this is something I've relied on for years to help me get perspective and make better choices. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la4yWGpKOJ0 38 In Peterson language, it forces you to optimize for long term thinking instead of immediate gratification that reminds you that ultimately decisions are not being made for you now, they're being made for you in 24 hours and 24 days and 24 months. You can see our decisions are investments that we make into our future. And the more ruminative and deep of a thinker that you are, the more you need to make decisions for your future self, not yourself, right now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la4yWGpKOJ0 .
• Sponsor mention: Momentous “sleep packs” for falling asleep faster and waking less groggy (presented as an ad) 34 Before we continue, if your sleep's not been right, you're taking ages to nod off, waking up at random times and feeling groggy in the morning. Momentous sleep packs are here to help. They are not a typical knock you out supplement that's just overloaded with melatonin. Only the most evidence based ingredients are perfect doses to help you fall asleep more quickly, stay asleep throughout the night and wake up feeling more rested and revitalized in the morning. Which is why I take these every single night and why I trust Momentous with my life or at least my sleep. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la4yWGpKOJ0 .

Notable Quotes

“You live with the story of your decisions for far longer than the impact of them.” 68 So optimizing to gratify your desires in the moment at the expense of the way that you will feel and the story you will tell yourself about yourself in the future is rarely a good deal because you live with the story of your decisions for far longer than the impact of them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la4yWGpKOJ0

“Decisions are as much about the sort of person that you will tell yourself that you are for having made the decision as the actual impact of the decision itself.” 37 Decisions are as much about the sort of person that you will tell yourself that you are for having made the decision as the actual impact of the decision itself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la4yWGpKOJ0

Must‑Listen Clip

• Timestamp: 0:10–3:27. The full 24‑Hour You framework explained—why it works, how to use it, and how it reframes identity and regret 33 And it's the 24 hour you and this is one of the best questions I think, to ask yourself when faced with a decision, which is what would you tomorrow want you today to do? And this is something I've relied on for years to help me get perspective and make better choices. And the reason it's so effective, I think, is it rips you out of the present moment. It stops you from relying so heavily on the confused chemical signals coming from your body. Instead, it gives you a bit more distance. It depersonalizes the decision, helps you treat yourself like a friend. You're responsible for helping. In Peterson language, it forces you to optimize for long term thinking instead of immediate gratification that reminds you that ultimately decisions are not being made for you now, they're being made for you in 24 hours and 24 days and 24 months. You can see our decisions are investments that we make into our future. And the more ruminative and deep of a thinker that you are, the more you need to make decisions for your future self, not yourself, right now. That makes sense. So optimizing to gratify your desires in the moment at the expense of the way that you will feel and the story you will tell yourself about yourself in the future is rarely a good deal because you live with the story of your decisions for far longer than the impact of them. So you have to choose wisely. And we don't have crystal balls to see into the future. But this is about as close to a tool of clairvoyance as I can think of. In fact, I can't think of a single decision which would be worse if I actually did what I wished I'd done 24 hours later. And I can't imagine, imagine if all you did was things that you wanted to do now but you in the future would regret. That is just a direct path toward misery. It's the it sounds like hell. It's a guaranteed way to make decisions that you're going to have to not only live with the consequences of, but for even longer than that. You're going to have to live with the story that you tell yourself about being the kind of person who made that sort of decision. And again, especially if you are a introspective, reflective, ruminative sort of person who's going to think about the things that you do and tell yourself a story about what that means. You need to be very, very careful about what you invest into that future story of you because the negativity bias is a hell of a drug and if it want you have a predisposition to think of yourself as a bit of a piece of shit, you will permanently be scouting for any excuse to fit your Prior to that oh yeah, I knew I was always going to do that thing. I've not changed at all. This proves to me that I'm not the person I thought I was. Decisions are as much about the sort of person that you will tell yourself that you are for having made the decision as the actual impact of the decision itself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la4yWGpKOJ0 .

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Health & Inflammation

The Tim Ferriss Show — Dr. Kevin Tracey on Vagus Nerve Stimulation (VNS)

Episode Overview

Dr. Kevin Tracey details how stimulating the vagus nerve can modulate inflammation. A newly FDA‑approved implant for rheumatoid arthritis activates the body’s “inflammatory reflex,” with striking patient outcomes and implications for depression and autoimmune disease 57 It was just announced that the company Set Point Medical, which will now be marketing a device to stimulate the vagus nerve to treat rheumatoid arthritis, has received FDA approval. So there'll be a product launch underway for everything we're about to talk about in the context of using a medical device that activates an evolutionarily conserved and ancient reflex through which the brain can suppress inflammation when it's running out of control. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick 45 So there'll be a product launch underway for everything we're about to talk about in the context of using a medical device that activates an evolutionarily conserved and ancient reflex through which the brain can suppress inflammation when it's running out of control. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick .

Key Insights

• FDA approval: SetPoint Medical’s RA device stimulates the vagus nerve to curb runaway inflammation 57 It was just announced that the company Set Point Medical, which will now be marketing a device to stimulate the vagus nerve to treat rheumatoid arthritis, has received FDA approval. So there'll be a product launch underway for everything we're about to talk about in the context of using a medical device that activates an evolutionarily conserved and ancient reflex through which the brain can suppress inflammation when it's running out of control. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick 45 So there'll be a product launch underway for everything we're about to talk about in the context of using a medical device that activates an evolutionarily conserved and ancient reflex through which the brain can suppress inflammation when it's running out of control. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick .
• Modulation vs. suppression: VNS trims cytokines ~70%, avoiding the full immunosuppression (and black‑box risks) of biologics that aim for 100% blockade 56 Well, it's because, and here we go back to laboratory studies, and even now in new human studies, when you stimulate the vagus nerve fibers that inhibit inflammation, the ones that travel from the brain to the spleen, for instance, to stop cytokine production, you inhibit, as you said, as you correctly said, about 70% of the cytokine production, you don't inhibit 100%. So the best way I like to think of it is that if you have an excessive or a dangerous cytokine response, you're going to produce, call it 100 units of TNF, and that's going to be very bad for your tissues and for you, the normal range should be 10 or 20. The vagus nerve stimulation therapy and the set point device is called actually the immunoregulation therapy because it's only one minute a day. That drives the TNF from 100 down to about 30 or so. So there's plenty left to have an appropriate immune response. But it takes the TNF effects from the toxic range that cause rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn's disease. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick 26 So we know for certain if you take biologics that, like anti TNF or anti IL1 or anti IL6 that you see advertising at the nightly news every night and on all the NFL football games every weekend, these biologics, the way they're designed to work is they suppress 100% of the activity of the cytokine. So if you take anti TNF and your monoclonal antibody in your body bumps into your TNF in your body, it's. It's zero. The, the antibody takes away 100%. It's yes or no. And because you take away 100% of TNF or IL1, depending on what drug you're on, those drugs carry warnings. The most serious side effect warning the FDA can give, called the black box warning, because they cause immunosuppression, which is exactly what you said immunosuppression means. Now you no longer have enough immunological activity, or in this case, inflammation activity to fight off infections. And so the risk is you'll get things like sepsis or other tuberculosis or other conditions, even cancer in some patients, because your immune system is no longer fully armed to defend itself against these threats. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick .
• Inflammation–mood link: inducing inflammation in mice drives depression‑like behavior via the vagus; cutting it prevents those effects 55 There's overwhelming evidence from many labs, including my own, that the presence of inflammation in the body activates signals that travel up, you guessed it, the vagus nerve. And so you can take a. You can take a mouse for instance, and inject it with IL1 and the mouse will run in the corner of its cage. It'll huddle up, it'll look like it doesn't feel well, like when you have the flu. It will avoid eating, it'll avoid sex, it'll avoid playing with toys in the cage. It looks depressed. If you cut the vagus nerve. Back to your topic of before. If you cut the vagus nerve in those mice and give them IL1, they don't get sick. They don't get depressed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick .
• “Inflammation memories”: the brain can store engrams of inflammation; reactivating those neurons can reignite colitis in mice—pointing to future brain‑targeted therapies 18 What else is happening? Well, when that inflammation settles in, say, the colon, Asher rolls in a brilliant, I think one of the most important scientific papers in the field of what we call neuroimmunology, maybe in the last 25 years, she discovered that what's happening in the inflamed tissues in your, in the colon, in this case, is actually forming a neural network in your brain which you can think of as a memory. It's called. Neuroscientists call it an engram. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick 25 And that's exactly what Professor Rawls did. She used another very sophisticated trick to pick what's called stereotactic injections, injecting virus particles into specific parts of the brain that she had mapped from looking at the red neurons. So she knew these are the neurons that get activated by colitis. Colitis. So she'd had the mice, and she. She let them recover from colitis, and then she injected the virus into those neurons and reactivated. Now, just the neurons, not all the neurons in the brain, just the ones that remembered the place of the colitis, and they got colitis again. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick 19 What else is happening? Well, when that inflammation settles in, say, the colon, Asher rolls in a brilliant, I think one of the most important scientific papers in the field of what we call neuroimmunology, maybe in the last 25 years, she discovered that what's happening in the inflamed tissues in your, in the colon, in this case, is actually forming a neural network in your brain which you can think of as a memory. It's called. Neuroscientists call it an engram. So would that also be like a phantom limb? Would that be it? Or is that a different thing? I don't want to take us off track. It would be similar to a phantom limb, but it's more concrete, and I'll tell you why. And this is what's so amazing about it. Okay, so neuroscience has studied memories and engrams for many years using a method that we call trapping technology. And so what you do is you have a genetically engineered mouse, a mouse with special genes that you can put in, you know, when it's an embryo and the Mouse grows up with these genes. And now when you do something to the mouse, if you co administer, say you give the mouse a drug or you give the mouse inflammation. When you do that, at the same time, you give the mouse a drug that activates these special genes that turn the neurons red, for instance, but only the active neurons. So the neurons that get activated by the presence of, say, colitis, inflammation in the bowel, they turn red, and they stay red. So you can study them later, even weeks and months later. And that's exactly what Professor Rawls did. She used another very sophisticated trick to pick what's called stereotactic injections, injecting virus particles into specific parts of the brain that she had mapped from looking at the red neurons. So she knew these are the neurons that get activated by colitis. Colitis. So she'd had the mice, and she. She let them recover from colitis, and then she injected the virus into those neurons and reactivated. Now, just the neurons, not all the neurons in the brain, just the ones that remembered the place of the colitis, and they got colitis again. Wow. The changes in the brain neurons. I call it a neural network. She does too. I mean, we all call it an engram or a neural network. There's lots of neuroscientists who've talked about this on lots of podcasts, but they call it the Jennifer Aniston neuron or the Santa Claus neuron. I'm a recovering neurosurgeon. Right, Tim, you can do brain surgery under local anesthesia, and this is done a lot of times for epilepsy surgery, for instance, when you want to make sure that you don't injure any part of the brain involved in speech. So you can be talking to the patient during brain surgery. Now, you can put electrodes in various parts of the brain and ask the patient what's happening. And there's a famous story of a patient, well, I just saw Santa Claus, or I see Jennifer Aniston. Euphemistically, people call that. Well, that you have a Jennifer Aniston neuron. You actually don't have a Jennifer Aniston neuron because you could put an electrode in another part of the brain and you say, well, friends, the TV show, and Jennifer Aniston's neuron will light up in that because they're part of a network. Right. It's a constellation that is recognizable by the brain. It's a constellation. Exactly right. Well, nobody before Raj's studies, nobody thought that a constellation in the brain would recognize inflammation in a way. That would not only sort of remember the effects of it, but could then reactivate it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick .
• Non‑invasive and pharmacological angles: transauricular TENS on the ear’s simba concha showed N‑of‑1 benefit; famotidine (Pepcid) appears to act as a pharmacological VNS in studies 24 He developed, developed for the first time in his life, actually he developed intermittent bouts of depression, serious depression, which he attributed to excessive inflammation in his GI tract, which was through unknown mechanisms coming episodically and causing this depression, which as he talks about in the book and he's, and he's written about on his own, led to the end of his marriage and was really ruining his life. Well, this was around the time that Sangeeta and I had discovered these funny acupuncture maps of the ear and saw that some people were using TENS units. And we had published a series of papers at that point understanding how vagus nerve signals could turn off inflammation. And so we said, what the heck, we put TENS unit over the counter product. You can get anywhere with the electrodes on the simba concha, not the tragus, not the lump that sticks out on the side, not the pinna, not the earlobe, but on the simba concha. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick 52 Well, as he writes, and I know this for a fact as I see him several times a year, it turned his whole life around. He added some antibiotic therapy also to treat the bacterial overgrowth in his intestines, which comes with the surgery that he had, the whipple. But he also uses this TENS unit in his left ear religiously twice a day, like brushing your teeth, he says. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick 23 If you want to call this vagus nerves, you can also call it transauricular nerve stimulation because there's lots of other nerves to the ear. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick 53 We heard of results out of China, out of Wuhan, actually, where patients taking famotidine, the antacids, were significantly protected against some of the lethal complications of COVID We actually did clinical studies of this drug. You can buy it for pennies over the counter at Amazon and Costco and CVS and everywhere. It's a safe antacid. And it turns out we did the clinical studies in Northwell and we did then laboratory studies in my lab. It's a pharmacological vagus nerve stimulator. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick .

Recommendations & Resources

• Book: The Great Nerve by Kevin Tracey (background and science) 54 I recommend everybody read this book. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick .
• Therapy: FDA‑cleared SetPoint VNS implant for rheumatoid arthritis (mechanism: inflammatory reflex) 57 It was just announced that the company Set Point Medical, which will now be marketing a device to stimulate the vagus nerve to treat rheumatoid arthritis, has received FDA approval. So there'll be a product launch underway for everything we're about to talk about in the context of using a medical device that activates an evolutionarily conserved and ancient reflex through which the brain can suppress inflammation when it's running out of control. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick 45 So there'll be a product launch underway for everything we're about to talk about in the context of using a medical device that activates an evolutionarily conserved and ancient reflex through which the brain can suppress inflammation when it's running out of control. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick .
• Alternatives discussed: transauricular TENS (simba concha placement) as explored in a self‑case; pharmacologic VNS via famotidine per lab/clinical work 24 He developed, developed for the first time in his life, actually he developed intermittent bouts of depression, serious depression, which he attributed to excessive inflammation in his GI tract, which was through unknown mechanisms coming episodically and causing this depression, which as he talks about in the book and he's, and he's written about on his own, led to the end of his marriage and was really ruining his life. Well, this was around the time that Sangeeta and I had discovered these funny acupuncture maps of the ear and saw that some people were using TENS units. And we had published a series of papers at that point understanding how vagus nerve signals could turn off inflammation. And so we said, what the heck, we put TENS unit over the counter product. You can get anywhere with the electrodes on the simba concha, not the tragus, not the lump that sticks out on the side, not the pinna, not the earlobe, but on the simba concha. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick 52 Well, as he writes, and I know this for a fact as I see him several times a year, it turned his whole life around. He added some antibiotic therapy also to treat the bacterial overgrowth in his intestines, which comes with the surgery that he had, the whipple. But he also uses this TENS unit in his left ear religiously twice a day, like brushing your teeth, he says. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick 53 We heard of results out of China, out of Wuhan, actually, where patients taking famotidine, the antacids, were significantly protected against some of the lethal complications of COVID We actually did clinical studies of this drug. You can buy it for pennies over the counter at Amazon and Costco and CVS and everywhere. It's a safe antacid. And it turns out we did the clinical studies in Northwell and we did then laboratory studies in my lab. It's a pharmacological vagus nerve stimulator. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick .
• Context: two vagus nerves; ~100k fibers each; ~80% carry body‑to‑brain signals (interoception) 22 But you have two of them. So there's two vagus nerves, like two thumbs, one on each side. Each one arises at about the level of your ear at the base of your brain, travels down both sides of your neck with the carotid artery, and then across the chest into the abdomen. And along the way, it sends out countless branches to all the organs in the chest and abdomen that you don't think about all day long. Now, within each of those two vagus nerves, left and right, you have a hundred thousand fibers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick 21 Each fiber has an origin in either the body or the brain. 80% of them actually originate in the body. They carry information about the organs in your body, up into your brain. And then Obviously, the other 20% originate in the brain, and they carry information back down to your organs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick 20 We call that interoception. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick .

Notable Quotes

“It was just announced that the company Set Point Medical… has received FDA approval.” 57 It was just announced that the company Set Point Medical, which will now be marketing a device to stimulate the vagus nerve to treat rheumatoid arthritis, has received FDA approval. So there'll be a product launch underway for everything we're about to talk about in the context of using a medical device that activates an evolutionarily conserved and ancient reflex through which the brain can suppress inflammation when it's running out of control. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick

“When you stimulate the vagus nerve… you inhibit about 70% of the cytokine production.” 56 Well, it's because, and here we go back to laboratory studies, and even now in new human studies, when you stimulate the vagus nerve fibers that inhibit inflammation, the ones that travel from the brain to the spleen, for instance, to stop cytokine production, you inhibit, as you said, as you correctly said, about 70% of the cytokine production, you don't inhibit 100%. So the best way I like to think of it is that if you have an excessive or a dangerous cytokine response, you're going to produce, call it 100 units of TNF, and that's going to be very bad for your tissues and for you, the normal range should be 10 or 20. The vagus nerve stimulation therapy and the set point device is called actually the immunoregulation therapy because it's only one minute a day. That drives the TNF from 100 down to about 30 or so. So there's plenty left to have an appropriate immune response. But it takes the TNF effects from the toxic range that cause rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn's disease. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick

“Nobody before Raj’s studies… thought that a constellation in the brain would… remember the effects [of inflammation] and… reactivate it.” 17 Well, nobody before Raj's studies, nobody thought that a constellation in the brain would recognize inflammation in a way. That would not only sort of remember the effects of it, but could then reactivate it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick

Must‑Listen Clip

• Timestamp: 2:05:07–2:09:40. The “engrams of inflammation” breakthrough—how memory networks in the brain can reignite bodily inflammation, and why that could reshape chronic disease treatment 19 What else is happening? Well, when that inflammation settles in, say, the colon, Asher rolls in a brilliant, I think one of the most important scientific papers in the field of what we call neuroimmunology, maybe in the last 25 years, she discovered that what's happening in the inflamed tissues in your, in the colon, in this case, is actually forming a neural network in your brain which you can think of as a memory. It's called. Neuroscientists call it an engram. So would that also be like a phantom limb? Would that be it? Or is that a different thing? I don't want to take us off track. It would be similar to a phantom limb, but it's more concrete, and I'll tell you why. And this is what's so amazing about it. Okay, so neuroscience has studied memories and engrams for many years using a method that we call trapping technology. And so what you do is you have a genetically engineered mouse, a mouse with special genes that you can put in, you know, when it's an embryo and the Mouse grows up with these genes. And now when you do something to the mouse, if you co administer, say you give the mouse a drug or you give the mouse inflammation. When you do that, at the same time, you give the mouse a drug that activates these special genes that turn the neurons red, for instance, but only the active neurons. So the neurons that get activated by the presence of, say, colitis, inflammation in the bowel, they turn red, and they stay red. So you can study them later, even weeks and months later. And that's exactly what Professor Rawls did. She used another very sophisticated trick to pick what's called stereotactic injections, injecting virus particles into specific parts of the brain that she had mapped from looking at the red neurons. So she knew these are the neurons that get activated by colitis. Colitis. So she'd had the mice, and she. She let them recover from colitis, and then she injected the virus into those neurons and reactivated. Now, just the neurons, not all the neurons in the brain, just the ones that remembered the place of the colitis, and they got colitis again. Wow. The changes in the brain neurons. I call it a neural network. She does too. I mean, we all call it an engram or a neural network. There's lots of neuroscientists who've talked about this on lots of podcasts, but they call it the Jennifer Aniston neuron or the Santa Claus neuron. I'm a recovering neurosurgeon. Right, Tim, you can do brain surgery under local anesthesia, and this is done a lot of times for epilepsy surgery, for instance, when you want to make sure that you don't injure any part of the brain involved in speech. So you can be talking to the patient during brain surgery. Now, you can put electrodes in various parts of the brain and ask the patient what's happening. And there's a famous story of a patient, well, I just saw Santa Claus, or I see Jennifer Aniston. Euphemistically, people call that. Well, that you have a Jennifer Aniston neuron. You actually don't have a Jennifer Aniston neuron because you could put an electrode in another part of the brain and you say, well, friends, the TV show, and Jennifer Aniston's neuron will light up in that because they're part of a network. Right. It's a constellation that is recognizable by the brain. It's a constellation. Exactly right. Well, nobody before Raj's studies, nobody thought that a constellation in the brain would recognize inflammation in a way. That would not only sort of remember the effects of it, but could then reactivate it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAVoeiFiick .

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Investing & Power Laws

All‑In Podcast — David Friedberg: Every Investor Needs To Understand This Concept

Episode Overview

Friedberg walks through power‑law dynamics: a few companies drive most returns, compounding accelerates, and much of the value creation occurs after IPO. He outlines how venture is evolving toward a public‑private hybrid and why strategy must center on finding (and holding) outliers 66 I know we talk about this a lot, but I thought it would be good to show the difference between kind of a normal distribution and a power law distribution like venture returns, or I don't like to call it venture returns, but I do think the returns generally in free markets create value creation in a power law distribution, which means that a few of the many account for the vast majority of the capital appreciation of the value creation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI 32 As you accumulate more of the market, you actually move faster in accumulating more of the market, and eventually it becomes a runaway flywheel. No one can catch up. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI 64 I pulled this analysis together this morning for our conversation and this shows that the venture returns don't stop when you stop being a private company, that the real return and this highlights the point that most of the value when you find that Power Law winner, most of the value is created when they are a public company. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI 27 So ventures in a massive transition. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI .

Key Insights

• Find outliers, not indexes: returns follow a power law; the job is to identify power‑law winners (the “venture index” is argued to be negative) 65 The first key point I wanted to make is because of the Power Law, the job of investing is to find the Power Law winners. It is not to buy the index. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI 66 I know we talk about this a lot, but I thought it would be good to show the difference between kind of a normal distribution and a power law distribution like venture returns, or I don't like to call it venture returns, but I do think the returns generally in free markets create value creation in a power law distribution, which means that a few of the many account for the vast majority of the capital appreciation of the value creation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI 40 And the index generally is going to return negative. It's going to be a negative return. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI .
• Post‑IPO compounding is massive: examples cited—Palantir, Uber, Facebook—show most value creation can come after listing 64 I pulled this analysis together this morning for our conversation and this shows that the venture returns don't stop when you stop being a private company, that the real return and this highlights the point that most of the value when you find that Power Law winner, most of the value is created when they are a public company. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI 63 So Palantir went public after 17 years and their market cap was 16 billion. So they created 16 billion of equity value over a 17 year period. Since they've been public in five years they're now worth 436 billion. So they've created another $420 billion of equity market value in just the last five years, probably eclipsing all venture returns that have been made during that same period of time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI 62 Uber went public 75 billion after nine years as a private company and now they're worth 190 billion. So they've added 120 billion of value in just six years since being public. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI 61 Facebook, such a great example, 8 years as a private company, 100 billion market cap at IPO added another 2 plus trillion dollars in the years since. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI .
• Hold your champions: “Let your winners ride” as an overarching principle 30 Famously, when Zach said, let your winners ride. That is the overarching thing here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI .
• Smaller funds can outperform: fewer bets, earlier entry, lower valuations increase odds of capturing winners 31 And so what this does show though, is that the smaller the fund, the less diversified it is, which means the more they're likely to capture the winners. And you can actually see that the smaller funds generally have better performance than the bigger funds. Oh, for sure they do because they're getting in earlier as well, Freeberg. And they're paying less value, lower valuation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI .
• Venture is changing: strip sales, continuation funds, and public‑private structures create liquidity and extend ownership 41 I started doing this just, you know, my second decade, and companies decided to stay private longer. That was the big trend. And then there was a lot of reactions to that. Secondary transactions started occurring and then you just couldn't get dpi. You had to hold it forever. And now the industry is responding to this. So now we have something called strip sales. We have people creating continuation funds, ways to take those early investors and get them out into a new vehicle or to create some liquidity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI 27 So ventures in a massive transition. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI 58 But I think what comes out on the other side is something that looks a lot more like public private investing, like Rule off, pioneered at Sequoia and we're going to talk to him about that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI .

Recommendations & Resources

• Strategy: own top Nasdaq winners (e.g., top 10 would have yielded ~24× over 24 years versus the broader index) 29 And that's where I first saw this, which is if you buy just the top 10 companies in the Nasdaq and you just held it, you would have made a 24x multiple over a 24 year period versus if you had just bought the NASDAQ. So just owning the best companies in the NASDAQ is by far the the best way to drive multiple of return over a 10 year period. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI .
• Information edge: use private‑market knowledge to buy public dips in known winners (e.g., Uber, Robinhood—management familiarity cited) 59 And what I learned, having been an investor in Uber and Robinhood when they were $5 million and $20 million companies, I was like, first investor into those is when they crashed in the market when Uber hit 30. I bought up a bunch of it as a public investor, even though I had a ton from when I was an angel investor. And I did the same for Robin, who had $12, because I knew the management, I knew Vlad, I knew Travis, I knew Dara, and I had that understanding of the market. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI 28 If you build a business around the information asymmetry that accrues. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI .
• Mindset: treat IPOs as transitions in a long compounding journey 60 And having an IPO is just a transitionary event for these companies. Their compounding engine will continue as a public company if you've identified them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI .

Notable Quotes

“The first key point… because of the Power Law, the job of investing is to find the Power Law winners. It is not to buy the index.” 65 The first key point I wanted to make is because of the Power Law, the job of investing is to find the Power Law winners. It is not to buy the index. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI

“Having an IPO is just a transitionary event… the compounding engine will continue as a public company if you’ve identified them.” 60 And having an IPO is just a transitionary event for these companies. Their compounding engine will continue as a public company if you've identified them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI

“Let your winners ride.” 30 Famously, when Zach said, let your winners ride. That is the overarching thing here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI

Must‑Listen Clip

• Timestamp: ~4:39–7:37. Post‑IPO compounding case studies (Palantir, Uber, Facebook) and the implication for holding winners 64 I pulled this analysis together this morning for our conversation and this shows that the venture returns don't stop when you stop being a private company, that the real return and this highlights the point that most of the value when you find that Power Law winner, most of the value is created when they are a public company. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI 63 So Palantir went public after 17 years and their market cap was 16 billion. So they created 16 billion of equity value over a 17 year period. Since they've been public in five years they're now worth 436 billion. So they've created another $420 billion of equity market value in just the last five years, probably eclipsing all venture returns that have been made during that same period of time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI 62 Uber went public 75 billion after nine years as a private company and now they're worth 190 billion. So they've added 120 billion of value in just six years since being public. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI 61 Facebook, such a great example, 8 years as a private company, 100 billion market cap at IPO added another 2 plus trillion dollars in the years since. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuUQGdUjkI .