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Global Agricultural Developments
by vnm13 86 sources
Tracks farming innovations, best practices, commodity trends, and global market dynamics across grains, livestock, dairy, and agricultural inputs
Ag PhD
Krishi Jagran
Tarım Editörü
Market Movers
U.S. soybeans: a large Chinese sale against a lower yield narrative
USDA reported 488,000 metric tons of 2026/27 soybeans sold to China and another 136,150 metric tons to unknown destinations—about 624,000 tons in total. Pro Farmer described the sale as materially larger than the recent two-cargo cadence, but said traders need repeated purchases before treating it as evidence that China will follow through on its much larger buying target.
The demand signal is arriving while the U.S. crop remains uneven. Corn is tracking ahead of normal, particularly in the western Corn Belt, while soybeans are slightly behind; wet conditions in the eastern Corn Belt are raising disease risk. After a month of heat and dryness, yield expectations have moved down from above-trend toward near- or below-trend, and late rains may help corn grain fill without necessarily helping already-wet eastern soybean fields. An analyst characterized the market as demand-led: if China buys the full target and yields do not exceed USDA assumptions, U.S. soybean carryout could become tight.
The immediate risk is two-sided. Market Minute says soybeans are about 60 cents below their recent highs and have retraced 61.8% of the June rally; a break through the March-linked support area would suggest a further leg lower rather than a routine correction.
Wheat: futures sold off, but the Black Sea supply risk remains
September Chicago wheat fell roughly 24 cents to about 639 cents per bushel and September Kansas City wheat fell about 23 cents to roughly 708 cents after profit-taking and technical selling following a Black Sea-driven rally. Traders are assuming that Russian and Ukrainian wheat will eventually find a route to market, which has limited the rally response to further attacks.
That assumption is not the same as a supply resolution. Ukraine has barely shipped wheat in recent weeks; Russia and Ukraine account for more than 10% of world wheat exports, Australian production is expected to fall by a quarter to a third, and EU output is also down. The United States has little spare capacity to capture the opportunity because wheat acreage is at a century low.
U.S.–Mexico cattle: reopening is phased, not a supply flood
USDA plans to reopen the Douglas, Arizona, port to Mexican cattle on August 24 after more than a year of closure. The protocol requires inspection and prophylactic treatment in Mexico, three to seven days of observation, a second USDA inspection at the border, and a dipping vat; initially, only cattle from Sonora and Chihuahua qualify. The flow is expected to take weeks or months to rebuild.
The market implication is a gradual easing of a logistics constraint rather than an immediate reversal of tight supply. Mexican shipments normally total roughly one million head per year, only about 3% of the U.S. calf crop, and the analyst expects tight cattle supplies to remain a driver. New World screwworm is confirmed in Texas and New Mexico; eradication would require about 500 million sterile flies per week, while a $25 million Arizona facility is now expected to produce its first sterile flies in spring 2027.
Sugar and food inflation: supply expectations are tightening
Covrig Analytics expects a 300,000-ton global sugar deficit in 2026/27, while BMI sees the surplus shrinking to 2.8 million tons; white sugar reached a two-week high. These are market estimates rather than a confirmed balance-sheet change, but they are a current support signal for prices. In Turkey, July food inflation rose 1.61% month on month and 37.53% year on year; onions, garlic and carrots rose 25.9% month on month, tuber vegetables 21.6%, and fruit vegetables 14.5%.
Innovation Spotlight
Southern Minas, Brazil: technical assistance produced a large olive-yield jump
A FAEMG/SENAR technical-assistance group covering about 30 olive producers in 13 municipalities reported production rising from 2 tons last season to 74 tons this season. The program focused on pruning, soil correction, nutrition, and pest and disease control. One assisted producer harvested 11 tons, more than twice the 5 tons recorded in 2023/24, although two tons were left unharvested because of rain. The result is a strong extension-program signal, not a universal yield or ROI benchmark; operators should separate the effects of weather, orchard age, and management changes before scaling.
Uttarakhand, India: a mixed organic–chemical system with reported cost savings
A 15-acre farmer in Udham Singh Nagar reports moving toward a roughly 50:50 organic–chemical system in 2021–22, using annual cow-dung manure and a biological input kit. He says wheat costs fell from about ₹15,000 per acre by ₹2,000–3,000 per acre; an eight-acre wheat crop of variety 279 yielded about 27 quintals per acre last year, while he expects more than 25 quintals this year if weather holds. He also reports softer soil and no fertilizer requirement on one fodder field. These are operator-reported results from one farm, so a neighboring conventional strip and full labor accounting are needed before treating the savings as a replicable ROI.
Castro, Paraná: feed-bunk robotics targets labor and milk output
At Agroleite, an app-controlled robot is moving along the feed bunk several times a day, bringing feed closer to cows and dispensing an additional energy ration. The manufacturer says the system can raise milk production by up to 5% while reducing labor; the claim is not accompanied by an independent trial or payback calculation. Castro is Brazil’s largest dairy basin, producing about 1.5 million liters per day, within Paraná’s roughly 4-million-liter daily output, and the milk is processed locally. A pilot should measure milk per cow, feed waste, labor hours, energy, maintenance, and the capital payback rather than assume the claimed 5% increase.
Regional Developments
Brazil: a sharp north–south weather split is disrupting field timing
Southern Brazil faces more storms as a strong extratropical cyclone forms after soils in Rio Grande do Sul, western Santa Catarina, and southwestern Paraná have already become saturated. Forecast rainfall of 60–70 mm, additional rain the following week, and frost risk reaching low-lying areas of the three southern states—and potentially São Paulo and southern Mato Grosso do Sul—will restrict field work. In the Center-North, temperatures near 39–40°C, afternoon humidity below 20%, and no significant rain are increasing fire risk during safrinha corn and cotton harvest.
Bahia, Brazil: cotton expansion continues despite climate uncertainty
Bahia’s 2025/26 cotton crop is expected to reach 925,000 tons of lint, about 10% above the previous cycle; harvest is nearly halfway complete and producers view it as a likely state record. El Niño remains a productivity risk, while improved prices make total-cost and economic-profit accounting more important than headline production alone.
Santa Catarina, Brazil: pork margins are below cost despite record exports
Live-hog prices in Santa Catarina are at their lowest level since 2006, averaging R$4.78/kg and around R$4.20/kg in some regions against a reported production cost of R$6.40/kg. That is a R$2.20/kg loss, or more than R$300 on a 140-kg animal. Record Brazilian pork exports have not supported the domestic market, and the state breeders’ association is calling for coordinated herd reduction.
Best Practices
Corn: centralize pest decisions, then spend by measured pressure
Farm Journal agronomist Ken Ferry recommends a farm “pest boss” who owns the decision process, supported by a scouting team covering weeds, insects, and disease. Before spraying, identify the disease and check water conditioning, coverage volume, application method, and harvest restrictions; bacterial wilts do not have a curative product, while tar spot and southern rust can require control even when they begin below the ear leaf. In heavily diseased fields last year, the source reports roughly 250–270 bushels per acre after two in-season sprays, 220–230 after one, and 180–190 with no spray. That is a local stress-year comparison, not a guaranteed return.
Fertility cuts should be equally targeted. Soil tests can justify reducing dry fertilizer, but nitrogen should not be cut arbitrarily; field trials and nitrate testing are needed to avoid running out during grain fill.
Soybeans: late weed control is governed by the label and harvest window
Ag PhD says late weed control can still pay in soybeans, but dicamba, 2,4-D, Liberty, and Roundup are no longer legal at that stage in its guidance. Listed broadleaf options carry 60-day pre-harvest intervals for Cadet, Resource, Harmony SG, and Classic; 50 days for Ultra Blazer; and 45 days for Cobra. The source notes that Harmony and Classic will not control waterhemp or kochia, and recommends checking the local label and weather before using Cobra.
Eggs: quality control starts before the bird reaches the laying house
Egg producers should source chicks from registered, sanitary hatcheries, manage brooding and pullet skeletal development, and use a vaccination program tailored to the lot and region rather than copying another farm’s schedule. In processing, electronic candling can remove micro-cracked, stained, or internally damaged eggs; hot weather makes micro-cracks especially damaging, and eggs should be dry before packing to prevent mold and fungal growth. Automation can increase breakage, so conveyor maintenance, lubrication, impact reduction, and shorter laying cycles for older birds should be part of the quality plan. Netted houses and restricted visitor access are required biosecurity controls, but management must make them an operating culture.
Cattle: budget dry-season supplementation by category
In hot, dry Brazilian conditions, forage availability and quality can fall quickly. The recommended response is a supplementation plan for each cattle category, built around when and where rain returns, to preserve weight and avoid the seasonal “yo-yo” in performance.
Input Markets
Urea and freight remain exposed to the Strait of Hormuz
India bought 1.7 million tons of urea in the latest reported purchase, while roughly 30% of urea flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The analyst notes that fertilizer cost per acre already exceeds diesel cost, so continued disruption would affect both southern-hemisphere production and the next Northern Hemisphere crop. Brazil’s fertilizer industry expects imports for the 2026/27 soybean season to fall by at least 10% because of weaker farm profitability and Middle East logistics problems.
Crop mix is shifting supplier demand
Corteva reported second-quarter seed sales of $4.53 billion, broadly steady, while crop-protection sales fell 4% to $1.85 billion. The company expects more soybean acres and fewer corn acres to support soybean-trait demand, while higher input costs and fewer corn acres pressure crop-protection sales.
Brazil’s 2027 selective-tax risk is not yet priced with certainty
Brazil’s proposed selective tax could add cost to agrochemicals, limestone, and phosphate fertilizers, which currently benefit from other tax treatments. The tax rate and the definition of environmentally harmful products remain unresolved; nothing had been approved in the monitored report, and the required legislation faced a late-September timing constraint before a 2027 start. Input dealers should prepare systems, but growers should treat any precise rate or cost impact as unconfirmed.
Livestock purchases have overtaken feed as a U.S. farm expense
USDA’s farm-expenditure survey found that livestock purchases overtook feed as the largest expense category for the first time in 41 years. The shift reflects high animal values alongside mostly flat or lower grain prices, and it may slow herd rebuilding because younger or equity-constrained producers face both expensive animals and high interest rates.
Forward Outlook
Treat the next U.S. crop reports as a reconciliation point. The crop tour is about two weeks away, while the August production report will test whether the recent deterioration in conditions has translated into lower yield expectations. Until then, China’s soybean purchases are a demand signal—not proof of a sustained export pace.
Use soybean support as a risk gate, not a forecast. A hold at the 61.8% retracement can support a marketing pause; a break should trigger a review of coverage and cash-flow needs rather than an automatic directional bet.
Plan Brazil’s 2026/27 cycle for both excess and deficient water. El Niño projections point to Paraná rainfall 50–70 mm above normal in September and more than 200 mm over 30 days, potentially helping grain fill but complicating summer-corn harvest. Rondônia faces a different risk: October–November rainfall could run 70–100 mm below normal, with heat and delayed rains threatening river logistics.
Stage cattle exposure around the Douglas reopening. The first port, eligible Mexican states, inspection capacity, and the absence of new screwworm cases in Arizona or California are the practical milestones; supply assumptions should be revised only as actual weekly flows build.
Budget Brazil’s next soybean season for survival and liquidity. Use the average of the three worst yields from the past 10 seasons as the base productivity case and the average of the best prices from the past five or six years as the revenue case; the monitored guidance is to target break-even and debt reduction rather than record yields or speculative input purchases.
GrainStats 🌾
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Successful Farming
Market Movers
Corn: a technical downside gate, not a fundamental forecast
Market Minute reports that corn was rejected at the 50–61.8% retracement zone—an area it had previously identified as resistance—and says the contract has given back nearly half of its rally. The advisory’s condition is clear: bulls need to hold between the current area and the 61.8% level; failure could indicate further downside rather than a routine pullback.
This is a chart-based risk signal, not evidence of a new production, demand, or trade-policy shift. Producers should use it as a hedge or sales-coverage trigger, not as a price target.
California lettuce: regional oversupply meets local demand
A farming discussion shared a Wall Street Journal report headlined “California Lettuce Growers Skip Harvest, Plow Their Crops Back Into the Ground”; one commenter described that as evidence that supply exceeded the economics of harvesting. The same thread shows a sharply different channel picture: a small-scale market farmer reports new customers coming specifically for salad greens, while another says a local aquaponics greenhouse cannot grow lettuce fast enough.
The useful signal is a mismatch between regional field supply and local or controlled-environment demand—not proof of a national shortage. The material read here supplies no acreage, price, or loss data, so it should not be used as a market-balance estimate.
Innovation Spotlight
Belgium’s agriwilding case has a biodiversity result, but no ROI
The linked report describes a 15-year-old, two-hectare agriwilding system in Flanders, Belgium, compared over several years with conventionally managed farmland and nearby protected nature areas. The model replaces annual monoculture with a mosaic of perennial food crops, fruit and nut trees, shrubs, species-rich grasslands, ponds and swales; permanent cover and low soil disturbance are central to the design.
The reported result is substantial for biodiversity: the system supported 30 of the 39 butterfly species recorded in the surrounding region, moth richness matched the surveyed nature reserves, and researchers recorded up to six times more individual butterflies and moths than in conventional farmland. The report argues that targeted incentives could let farmers restore biodiversity while keeping land economically viable and says the approach merits consideration in the EU Common Agricultural Policy, while also stressing that it is not a replacement for protected natural areas and needs large-scale research.
This is a measured small-site biodiversity result, not a yield or ROI benchmark. A commercial pilot should therefore record crop yield, gross margin, labor, water, soil-cover performance, and biodiversity outcomes against a conventional block before expanding.
AI-assisted horsefly control is a design workflow, not a proven product
Nick Horob researched high-volume H-trap and NZI trap designs, then asked Codex to combine them with 3D-printable components. He reports receiving a product concept, CAD files, assembly guide, and assembly/BOM website. A follow-up post shows the resulting “FUHorsefly” design, including a video of the contraption.
The posts provide no catch rate, durability test, printing cost, or animal-performance result. Treat the project as a rapid prototyping method for livestock pest control: compare it with a commercial trap on catch per trap-day, materials and labor cost, weather exposure, and observed fly pressure before replacing existing controls.
Regional Developments
Mississippi-to-Gulf grain logistics: an early coverage warning
GrainStats says St. Louis River levels are bottoming out earlier each year, coinciding with barge freight “pumping earlier.” A follow-up explicitly raises the question of how merchants will cover Gulf export obligations, and the account points users to separate U.S. river-level and barge-freight dashboards.
The posts do not establish a current closure, draft restriction, or export-volume loss. They do establish a timing risk for U.S. grain merchants: river conditions and freight assumptions may need to be updated earlier than normal when pricing Gulf coverage and basis.
South Dakota: rangeland conservation is a follow-up lead
Successful Farming highlighted the Hansen Ranch in South Dakota as a case where rangeland is being conserved and restored. The monitored post supplies no acreage, stocking rate, cost, or production outcome, so it is a lead for further reporting rather than a transferable performance benchmark.
Best Practices
Put farm economics beside ecological performance
Agriwilding’s strongest evidence is ecological, while its financial case remains an incentive and viability argument. Start with a small perennial-and-crop mosaic, maintain permanent cover and low disturbance, and set a control block with pre-agreed measures for yield, margin, labor, water, erosion, and biodiversity. The two-hectare study size and explicit need for scale-up research make a staged trial more defensible than a whole-farm conversion.
Separate marketing triggers from forecasts
For corn, define in advance what action follows a break or hold at the cited retracement zone—new coverage, a hedge adjustment, or no action—rather than treating a technical level as a guaranteed direction. For grain moving through the Mississippi system, pair that plan with live river and freight monitoring before committing to Gulf delivery assumptions.
Validate pest-control prototypes against a control
The Codex-generated trap is useful because it lowers the barrier to making a custom design, not because its performance has been demonstrated. Keep one established trap as a control, measure catch per trap-day and replacement rate, and include printing, assembly, and deployment labor in the comparison. The source confirms the CAD/BOM workflow but not the field result.
Input Markets
Barge freight is the actionable cost signal
The GrainStats posts identify earlier freight activity alongside earlier St. Louis river bottoms, but the text supplies no freight quote. Merchants and exporters should therefore budget a range for freight and basis exposure and update it from the linked dashboards rather than treating the current post as a fixed rate.
Treat lettuce support claims as due-diligence questions
In the lettuce discussion, one commenter says vegetable subsidies are limited relative to commodity-grain support, while another says crop insurance can still leave growers with a major loss. These are individual assertions, not a verified policy or loss series; they are useful prompts to check coverage, eligibility, and actual indemnity economics before planting.
Forward Outlook
Track the Mississippi corridor before Gulf commitments are priced. The combination of earlier river bottoms, earlier freight activity, and questions about export coverage warrants an earlier review of basis, freight, delivery windows, and merchant obligations.
Use the corn retracement as a decision gate. A failure of the cited support area could bring further downside according to the advisory, but the post does not provide a fundamental forecast; keep sales and hedge decisions tied to the farm’s cost and delivery exposure.
Watch whether lettuce oversupply is temporary. One commenter estimates a roughly 46-day crop cycle and says a replant could produce two harvests by Halloween; that is an individual estimate, so confirm local planting windows, demand, and realized prices before using it in a recovery scenario.
Test agriwilding at commercial scale before assuming profitability. The biodiversity signal is strong in the Flanders case, but the report calls for more research and gives no yield or ROI benchmark. EU incentive design and farm-level gross margins will determine whether the model moves beyond small demonstration sites.
Require field data before scaling the horsefly design. The next useful evidence is not another CAD revision but a controlled comparison of capture, cost, durability, and livestock fly pressure across a full operating period.
Advancing Eco Agriculture
Successful Farming
Joel Salatin
Market Movers
United States row crops: fertilizer stress is colliding with a demand problem
In a monitored interview, Joel Salatin cited what he described as USDA and analyst figures putting the average U.S. soybean loss at about $100/acre in 2025, with corn farmers projected to lose $50–$100/acre this year; he linked the soybean loss to a $12 billion bailout. These are attributed interview figures rather than a new independent price series.
Salatin’s structural explanation is that China is nearing the end of a roughly 10-year plan, targeted around 2030, to become food self-sufficient, while Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Brazil provide competing off-season supply. He said about half of U.S. soybeans are exported and almost half of U.S. corn goes to ethanol, leaving the crop system oversupplied; because the opposite hemisphere can respond, he sees major grain-price dislocations as capable of correcting within roughly six months.
That makes a fertilizer-driven corn-to-soy shift a potentially poor solution. Salatin said more soybean acreage is being planted because soybeans require less purchased nitrogen, but his expectation is additional pressure on soybeans rather than a durable corn shortage.
United States cattle and Mexico: scarcity has a slower correction cycle
Salatin said the U.S. beef-cow herd is at its lowest level since 1950, beef prices have roughly tripled in five years, and week-old calves have sold for as much as $1,500 at auction. He also said producers are retaining more heifers, which increases the breeding herd but temporarily removes animals from slaughter.
The Mexican supply channel adds a separate constraint: he said the screwworm problem stopped flows through 12 entry points that normally bring more than one million head per year into the United States. The market-duration distinction is important: Salatin describes crops as roughly 100–120-day systems but cattle as approximately three-year systems, so cattle supply cannot respond to high prices as quickly as grain acreage can.
Innovation Spotlight
Pacific Northwest orchards: foliar sugar is a low-cost input-rate experiment
John Kempf recommends adding 1–2 lb/acre of dextrose, sucrose, sorbitol, or molasses to foliar sprays. He said AEA team member Jim Dunlop reports that Pacific Northwest tree-fruit growers have generally been able to cut nutrient rates in the spray tank by half when sugar is added. The source presents this as field experience, not as a replicated yield or payback study.
The practical test is straightforward: compare the normal program with a reduced-rate-plus-sugar strip, and record material cost, labor, yield, fruit quality, and storage life before scaling. The reported input-rate reduction is promising, but the segment does not establish whether the saving survives differences in sugar cost, crop value, or disease pressure.
Seed provenance is being treated as a biological input
Kempf says corn seed carries about 9 billion microbes per seed. He describes a 30-acre buckwheat comparison in which seed from Green Cover and locally sourced commodity seed were planted side by side; differences in crop development and height were still visible in following crops two years later. This is a striking farm observation and a reason to track seed source in trials, but it is not presented as a controlled seed-microbiome experiment.
Orchard yield benchmarks are high, but the economics are incomplete
Kempf cites an Orchard View sweet-cherry block reaching roughly 19,000 lb/acre year over year, without the usual alternate-bearing collapse, and says that level was more than double the prior performance. The source also emphasizes harvest efficiency: heavily loaded branches can be stripped rapidly into a bucket. The figure is an approximate farm benchmark, not an independently audited trial, and no input-cost or ROI calculation is supplied.
Regional Developments
Great Plains water is a longer-horizon production constraint
Salatin argued that water may become a larger agricultural constraint than energy. He cited the five-state Ogallala aquifer as falling about 12 inches per year for roughly 60 years, with projections that it could become too deep to pump within about 30 years. This is an interview claim rather than a newly published aquifer assessment, but it has direct implications for irrigated-land valuation, crop choice, and equipment investment in the U.S. Great Plains.
Farm finance is becoming a land-ownership issue
Salatin cited reports of U.S. farm bankruptcies rising from roughly 200 to 1,500 in a year—about a 500% increase—and said institutional investors and wealthy family offices are showing renewed interest in farmland. The interview provides no underlying bankruptcy series, transaction prices, or ownership totals, so this is best treated as a financial-stress and ownership-concentration hypothesis to verify locally.
A separate Successful Farming item says more than 2,570 acres of North Dakota farmland are scheduled for auction in August 2026. With no sale prices or outcomes available in the monitored item, it is a watch signal—not evidence by itself of forced sales or falling land values.
Best Practices
Stage pasture conversion as a cash-flow project, not a yield slogan
Salatin’s illustrative Nebraska/Kansas model converts a 1,000-acre soybean farm losing about $100/acre to intensively managed grazing that he estimates could profit about $1,000/acre. He estimates roughly $300,000 for fencing and water, compares that one-time infrastructure cost with about $300/acre in annual soybean establishment and harvest expense, and separately estimates about $600,000 to buy the initial herd. These are scenario calculations, not observed farm results.
His implementation sequence is specific: install water and fencing over winter; seed a spring mix of roughly 12–15 grass, legume, and forb varieties; buy thin cull cows in September or October onto stockpiled forage; sell the roughly 70% that are not bred as fat cull cows in spring; and retain or sell the bred minority as cow-calf pairs. He estimates the initial money can be recovered within 18 months, but also says the operator needs about one year without income and enough leverage to fund the first cattle purchase.
For an actual farm, the decision gate is local: verify water access, forage establishment, fencing labor, cattle and slaughter-market basis, insurance, and the ability to carry a no-income period. The 18-month figure should be stress-tested rather than adopted as a universal payback.
Grow and graze fertility instead of treating fertilizer substitution as free
The proposed biological-fertility sequence is to keep soil covered between cash crops, including by planting subterranean clover and small grains or barley into standing crops, then use composted organic material. Salatin calculated that a 5,000-head-per-day Tyson beef plant could generate enough compost to fertilize nearly one million acres, illustrating the potential scale of localized nutrient recovery rather than proving that the supply chain is already organized.
He also argues that cover crops build soil more effectively when grazed than when simply mowed or tilled, because manure and urine remain in the system. His cost caveat is decisive: he sees no current saving in actual expense, only a substitution of labor and materials handling for petroleum and purchased fertilizer; the economics improve as fertilizer prices rise.
In established orchards, remove excess fertility before adding more inputs
Kempf recommends avoiding excess nitrogen and potassium in most established fruit soils, while recognizing sandy-soil and establishment-year exceptions. In the orchard example discussed, a single 40–50 lb nitrogen application was the only area where aphids appeared; after excess fertility stopped, the grower reported that scale and canker cleared over two to three years. This is an operator observation, so the implementation should begin with soil and tissue testing and a small block rather than a whole-orchard reversal.
Kempf also says field experience—not hard science—suggests that eight different plant families can shift the soil microbial community toward cooperation. Washington and Oregon orchardists he discusses associated living, mowed ground cover under trees and removal of herbicide bands with higher-quality, better-storing organic apples. Both points are suitable for measured trials, not blanket prescriptions.
Close the livestock, compost, and marketing loop where the market permits
Polyface describes a multi-species pasture system in which cows, pigs, chickens, ducks, lamb, turkey, and rabbit move to fresh paddocks daily or every other day; pigs turn compost, the farm has bought no chemical fertilizer and planted no seed for 65 years, and products are sold under a direct brand. The farm reports about 15,000 visitors per year, but the interview supplies no comparable enterprise-level profit figure. The transferable lesson is the operating loop—grazing, manure, compost, and direct marketing—not an assumed universal margin.
Input Markets
Urea and fuel are changing production decisions
The interview’s fertilizer signal is cumulative rather than a fresh retail quote: Salatin said U.S. urea prices rose about 400% after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He also cited reports of farmers who bought fertilizer in advance selling it at roughly twice their purchase price rather than planting, while more acres shifted from corn to soybeans to reduce nitrogen exposure.
Energy is the wider multiplier. Salatin cited fuel as approximately 50% of the average farmer’s operating expense, with higher energy costs then feeding into tractor, tire, machinery, parts, and freight costs. That makes a lower-input system economically relevant only if its added labor, handling, and infrastructure are measured against the input exposure it replaces.
Forward Outlook
Budget crop choice with both nutrient cost and export demand. A corn-to-soy switch can lower purchased nitrogen while worsening soybean oversupply. Stress-test China’s demand trajectory, South American competition, basis, and fertilizer availability together rather than optimizing one input line.
Separate cattle-transition capital into infrastructure, livestock, and liquidity. The monitored model requires about $300,000 for fencing and water, about $600,000 for cattle, and a year that may produce no income; the claimed 18-month payback depends on local cattle prices and forage performance.
Pilot biological programs with an evidence ledger. For foliar sugar, seed source, living orchard ground cover, and reduced fertility, record rate, material cost, labor, yield, quality, storage, and pest pressure. The strongest numbers this period are operator reports and farm benchmarks; Kempf explicitly labels the eight-family claim as field experience without hard science.
Put water risk into Great Plains land and equipment decisions now. The cited Ogallala decline is a 30-year capital-planning issue even if near-term crop margins remain the immediate concern. Irrigated operators should stress-test pumping depth, energy cost, crop mix, and residual land value rather than treating current water access as permanent.
Read farmland auctions as signals requiring follow-up, not conclusions. The North Dakota acreage scheduled for auction is worth tracking alongside bankruptcy, ownership, and financing data; without completed-sale prices or seller information, it cannot establish a regional land-price trend.
No-Till Farmer
Ag News Daily
Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Market Movers
U.S. grains: rain removed the premium, not the regional damage
Friday’s monitored Chicago quotes put soybeans near $11.88/bu, corn at $4.63/bu after a 1% decline, and wheat at $6.38/bu after a 3.84% fall. Soybeans had lost more than 75¢ from the previous week’s highs as rain coverage and month-end profit-taking removed weather premium.
The bearish national price signal is masking a sharply uneven crop. Parts of Minnesota received 2–3 inches while North Dakota missed the latest system; growers in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and northwestern Iowa reported 100°F heat, 20–30 mph winds and excessively warm nights. USDA’s drought monitor placed 29% of U.S. corn area and 26% of soybean area in drought. NASS described the combined crop-condition decline as the largest since the 1990s, with North and South Dakota only 50% good-to-excellent while the eastern crop remained comparatively strong.
That split matters for August pricing: the market is trading the forecast’s rain coverage, but grain fill and western yield losses are not settled. Analysts expect continued weather volatility because several short-range forecasts have failed to materialize; the August 12 USDA report is the next major formal checkpoint. Wheat also fell Friday after Ukraine indicated it might find an alternative export route, but the market discussion still expects volatility until Black Sea logistics are resolved.
Soybean demand is cushioning the selloff
China bought another 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for 2026/27 delivery, taking reported new-crop purchases to 3.045 million tons—12.2% of the White House’s 25-million-ton annual target. U.S. new-crop soybean export sales reached about 7.5 million tons, up 196% year over year and the strongest book for this point in four years. The purchases do not remove tariff or delivery risk, but they provide a demand floor while weather weighs on prices.
The more durable demand signal is domestic processing. ADM plans upgrades at four U.S. plants in Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska and North Dakota, adding roughly 700,000 metric tons—about 25 million bushels—of crush capacity by late 2028 or early 2029. Reported cash crush margins were $4–$6/bu, reinforcing the shift toward more domestic crushing and fewer raw-bean exports.
Cattle reprices around Mexico, but the supply story remains tight
The five-market U.S. live-steer average closed the week at $232.77/cwt, up $2.29 week over week but down $10.40 year over year; August live cattle closed at $231.57/cwt and feeder cattle at $346.60/cwt. Cash hogs were $95.99/cwt, while August lean-hog futures were $98.78 and pork cutout was $101.46.
USDA’s phased reopening of the Mexican feeder-cattle border is scheduled to begin August 24 at Douglas, Arizona. Mexican cattle normally represent about 15% of regional Texas feedyard inventories, and more than half at some operations, but the restart is expected to be slow. Analysts expect lighter animals, below-normal volumes because Mexico has expanded its own feeding capacity, and an Arizona bottleneck; additional cattle could raise U.S. beef production and ease retail prices, but are unlikely to restore packer leverage quickly.
Brazil’s tariff exposure widens beyond basic commodities
The new U.S. tariff package could affect Piracicaba, São Paulo, by more than $1 billion through agricultural machinery, construction equipment, sugar and ethanol. Sugar and ethanol now face rates in the 25%–37.5% range; the local industry estimates that 40–50 companies and roughly 10,000 workers are directly or indirectly exposed, with some firms sending 10%–50% of output to the United States. Regional producers are seeking exemptions and special credit rather than immediate reciprocity.
The direct effect on Brazil’s corn-ethanol sector may be limited, according to UNEM, but the sector is still expanding: 29 biorefineries are operating, 14 are under construction and 13 await authorization. Brazil’s blend is moving from E30 to E32, with a statutory path to 35% and possible future demand from maritime and aviation fuels. Brazil has chosen to challenge the U.S. tariffs at the WTO before retaliating; the appellate body is paralyzed, so the move is a diplomatic and legal signal rather than a short-term route to tariff relief.
Innovation Spotlight
Field-level disease timing has a quantified yield signal
Corteva/Pioneer’s fungicide-timing solution combines disease-trait scores, planting and tillage history, irrigation and nitrogen data, localized weather and leaf wetness in a field-level dashboard. After more than seven years of development, the system predicts disease onset before lesions become visible—once symptoms appear, infection may already be about two weeks old—and gives growers a “spray soon” window of 7–14 days or a “spray now” window of 5–7 days.
Corteva reports a five-bushel-per-acre yield advantage in trials for growers who already spray, from improving timing, and about 10 bu/ac for growers who normally do not spray. The result is a useful yield benchmark, but the monitored source does not provide a product price or payback calculation, so the economic case still needs farm-specific cost comparison.
Soybean establishment, not late rescue, sets the ceiling
The 18th CESB soybean productivity forum reported 920 formally audited areas averaging 97.25 sacks/ha and a new rainfed national record of 156.13 sacks/ha in Major Vieira, Santa Catarina. These are audited contest results rather than expected commercial averages, but they provide unusually concrete benchmarks for what intensive management can achieve.
The forum’s implementation sequence is practical: match cultivar to the local soil, climate and cycle; use high-quality, treated seed; and protect plantability through population, spacing, depth, speed and uniformity. The presenters say the yield ceiling is largely established at planting. A Georgia high-yield case cited weekly leaf analysis with two-day lab turnaround, 14–20 in-season foliar passes, potassium targeted at 5%–8% of CEC, and first-to-last emergence within 20 hours.
Regional Developments
Rio Grande do Sul’s storm losses are becoming a second production risk
Three days after a severe storm hit northern Rio Grande do Sul, more than 500 ha of canola and more than 500 ha of white oats were reported as total losses; wheat may still recover. A dairy shed containing more than 50 milking cows was destroyed, the milking robot operated on a generator, and some cows went 24 hours without milking. Wet bedding is expected to reduce milk output and raise disease risk for months. More than 150 houses were destroyed, and one condemned shed requires at least R$500,000 to rebuild.
The event is not yet over operationally. A red alert for western Rio Grande do Sul calls for wind gusts above 100 km/h, hail and possible tornadoes or microbursts, with 50–100 mm of rain falling on saturated soils. A new cyclone is then expected to affect Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná, followed by renewed frost risk below 4°C in low areas; rain may also disrupt fieldwork in São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul.
Brazil enters 2026/27 with a large crop outlook and a constrained margin outlook
The current Brazilian soybean outlook is still large: CONAB’s cited estimate is 180.6 million tons, up 5.3% year over year on 2.7% more planted area. But producer polling ranked production costs above climate and other concerns for 2026/27, alongside tighter credit, fertilizer problems and storage constraints.
El Niño makes the risk regional rather than uniform. The forecast cited an 82% chance of formation by the end of July and more than 90% probability that effects persist from December 2026 through February 2027. Center-West and Matopiba face irregular rain, dry spells and heat that could delay soy planting and compress the safrinha-corn window; the North and Northeast face severe drought risk, while southern Brazil faces excess rain, fungal pressure and disrupted field operations.
Power access is directly limiting Mato Grosso production
In Tapurah, a producer has had equipment and a water-storage project idle for more than a year while waiting for a grid connection roughly 1.5 km away; the quoted cost is about R$70,000. A nearby dairy operator abandoned a 300-cow, 2,300-liter-per-day business after outages of up to 12 hours repeatedly spoiled milk. Energisa says it built a Sorriso substation and plans more than R$2 billion in 2026 distribution investment, but the local constraint is already reducing productive capacity.
Best Practices
Budget the bad season before selecting the technology package
For Brazil’s 2026/27 crop, the recommended base case is the average productivity of the three worst harvests in the last ten years, paired with no more than the average of the best prices achieved over the last five or six years. The technology package should then be chosen to break even, reduce debt and preserve liquidity—not to chase a record yield or speculate on input/output spreads.
Treat conservation as a margin system
Illinois’ Thoren Farms has used cover-crop grazing, virtual fencing, diverse rotations and no-till for 50 growing seasons. The operators report no insecticides or fungicides, lower yields but much lower input use, and higher profitability because of reduced expenses. The transferable lesson is to measure profit after input costs, while recognizing that the transition itself requires cash and every change creates short-term execution risk.
A related fertilizer-placement test in Wisconsin found 7–12 bu/ac gains when fertilizer was placed under the seed rather than omitted. The farmer ultimately kept a simpler nitrogen-sulfur 2×0 approach because it performed as well as in-row 10-34-0 with less risk.
Make rapid disease reporting part of livestock biosecurity
For Brazilian poultry and swine operations, avian influenza and Newcastle disease suspicions must be reported immediately; the obligation applies to any citizen, not only veterinarians. For avian suspicions, the official service has 12 hours to investigate, collect samples and isolate a farm if warranted. Producers should treat acute mortality, severe respiratory or neurological symptoms, reduced feed or water intake, falling egg production and abnormal shells as triggers to call the technical or veterinary service.
Input Markets
U.S. fertilizer is easing into fall application
Retail fertilizer prices fell for a seventh consecutive week. Liquid nitrogen was down 14% over the past month, although some products remain above historical averages. That creates an opportunity to price fall applications and lock part of the 2027 requirement, rather than assuming the decline will continue indefinitely.
Brazil’s fertilizer demand is weakening with profitability
Brazil’s fertilizer industry expects imports for the 2026/27 soybean season to fall at least 10%, citing lower farm profitability and logistics disruption associated with the Middle East conflict. The signal is not simply lower input prices: producers are also entering the September planting window with less willingness or ability to fund the full nutrient program.
Forward Outlook
U.S. grain risk remains forecast-sensitive through August 12. Western producers who have forward sales but are unsure of yield should run crop-insurance yield-loss and October-price scenarios before adding sales or buying back contracts.
Brazilian producers need a financing plan before October. The cited El Niño playbook is to model a 15%–25% yield reduction, renegotiate debt while there is time, buy rural insurance before planting, hedge price exposure between October and December, use CPTEC/INMET regional forecasts for variety and planting date, and reserve cash for replanting.
Southern Brazil requires a rolling weather decision, not a single-event assessment. Saturated soils, another 50–100 mm rainfall episode, a cyclone and possible frost can successively affect harvest, dairy recovery and field access; fieldwork decisions in São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul and the southern states should remain conditional on the next system’s actual track.
Cattle risk management should treat the Mexico reopening as staged, not as an immediate supply wave. The first port is scheduled for August 24, seasonal fall movement is the likely timing, and the available analysis expects below-normal volumes. Producers can use LRP or equivalent protection because opening and closure are both known market risks.
Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Foreign Ag Service
Successful Farming
Market Movers
Black Sea wheat risk rallies, then loses follow-through
Wheat supplied the clearest price shock: on the July 30 morning, September Chicago wheat was up 24¼ cents at $6.85/bu, Kansas City wheat up 26¾ cents at $7.52, and spring wheat up 18¼ cents at $7.23; December corn and November soybeans were also modestly higher. The trigger was a new escalation around Russia’s Taman grain terminal: Ukrainian drones reportedly caused significant damage, four Russian tankers were hit, and shipping through the Sea of Azov/Kerch Strait—previously handling up to one-quarter of Russian grain exports—had already been halted since July 10. Russia and Ukraine are projected to account for nearly 30% of global wheat exports this year.
The rally did not hold. Row crops and hogs closed lower while wheat and other markets finished higher, with the analyst attributing wheat’s fade to the still-negative seasonal and technical weight of corn and soybeans. The immediate risk is nevertheless large: the Russia–Ukraine corridor moves roughly 2 billion bushels of wheat and 1 billion bushels of corn, according to the market discussion. Darren Newsome’s caution is important for procurement and hedging decisions: he described the move as primarily non-commercial short covering, noting that U.S. and world wheat fundamentals had not yet changed enough to imply an outright shortage.
U.S. row crops: rain removes premium while drought remains uneven
A wetter, cooler Midwest forecast removed about 75 cents of soybean premium in short order. Soybeans are in a critical yield window, and the market is now trending down toward support, although analysts said there may not be much more risk premium to remove until crop ratings and August yield estimates arrive. China has bought roughly 3 million metric tons of new-crop U.S. soybeans—slower than the pace implied by the White House’s 25-million-ton target—and private exporters reported a further 132,000 MT sale for MY 2026/27 on July 30.
The bearish weather narrative is being offset by a deteriorating regional moisture picture. GrainStats reported that the share of U.S. corn experiencing drought rose 10 percentage points week over week; a monitored Drought Monitor update reported one-category degradations in Iowa, Illinois and Ohio and more than a doubling of severe drought in Minnesota. Nebraska’s latest USDA disaster declarations now cover 86 of 93 counties, making affected producers eligible for emergency loan assistance. This leaves the market balancing a crop-saving forecast in parts of the Corn Belt against irreversible western damage and a still-uncertain August yield.
Corn has a demand cushion outside exports. U.S. ethanol output reached a 28-week high of 1.13 million barrels/day, up 3.6% week over week and 5.1% year over year; margins were reported positive across the Corn Belt at 10–35 cents/gallon, and some plants are beginning to advertise payments for low-carbon-intensity corn under the 45Z program. A DTN-linked item in the monitored feed also reports ADM plans to expand crush capacity at four U.S. plants, adding 25 million bushels of soybean demand.
Oilseed substitution and livestock signals
India, the world’s largest sunflower-oil importer, is redirecting sourcing toward South America as Black Sea shipments are disrupted; Russia and Ukraine account for 63% of its sunflower-oil shipments, and palm-oil imports are expected to rise 40%. Turkey remains structurally exposed: it expects higher sunflower production but is still roughly 50% dependent on imports, so rising Black Sea tension remains a supply and price risk.
U.S. cattle futures recovered from Monday’s border-related selloff, with the market discussion identifying a possible normal seasonal bottom, improving cattle and feeder charts, and a still-shrinking cow herd. Hogs moved lower as domestic demand remained soft and the analyst viewed the decline as seasonal pressure rather than a confirmed top.
Innovation Spotlight
Fungal disease detection moves the fungicide decision ahead of symptoms
Spornnado’s service uses a solar-powered field sampler with a weekly cassette; DNA analysis can target up to four diseases per cassette, return results in roughly 12 days, and detect disease spores more than two weeks before visible symptoms. The operating model is one sampler per roughly 100–200 acres for tight row-crop spray decisions. A four-disease, 10-week corn package costs about $2,000, including analysis, cassettes, the sampler and portal.
The evidence is promising but still partly vendor-reported: in an Iowa southern-rust case, the system flagged 20,000 spores in a previously unaffected area, and the company said it was a year when fungicide paid. The service now tests for 30 diseases across more than a dozen crops and has six years of baseline data for crops including corn and soybeans. A resistance-testing extension from a three-year Ontario study is not yet commercial; the team reported resistance in all of its apple-scab samples and aims eventually to tell growers not only when to spray but what not to spray.
Satellite nitrogen and water management targets field-level variability
Sentinel A combines PlanetScope and Sentinel-2 imagery with historical weather, seven-month seasonal forecasts, topography and soil properties to recommend nitrogen timing, rate and placement without requiring in-field hardware or soil samples. Its calibration uses high- and low-nitrogen check plots in multiple field locations; the low plot is about 30 lb of nitrogen behind the rest of a corn field, allowing the system to separate nitrogen response from hybrid color or other variation.
That field-level calibration matters after extreme rain: in Grand Island, Nebraska, a 7.5-inch event triggered additional nitrogen recommendations on some lighter soils but not many other fields. The platform is sold at $5–$13/acre: the lower tier targets dryland nitrogen-rescue decisions, while $13/acre includes irrigation and nitrogen management for intensive irrigated land.
Emerging seed and grazing platforms
Wild Bioscience’s acquisition of F1 Seed creates a UK precision-breeding wheat company combining gene editing, AI-driven trait discovery and conventional breeding, with a stated focus on high-yielding, climate-resilient and disease-resistant varieties. The monitored item describes a strategic pipeline move rather than a demonstrated field yield or ROI result. Monil is bringing virtual-fencing cattle collars to the U.S., positioning infrastructure-free grazing management alongside animal-health tracking and subscription pricing.
Regional Developments
Brazil: record Mato Grosso corn output masks a cash-flow squeeze
Mato Grosso’s direct tariff exposure is limited because soybeans, corn and cotton were not covered by the recent measures; beef is the more affected chain. The more immediate constraint is finance: banks and credit cooperatives are tightening lending and demanding more guarantees, while producers with substantial assets can still lack the operating cash needed to plant. The IMEA/FAMATO interview warned that if credit restrictions prevent financing the next crop, the production cycle itself can stall.
The production result is unusually strong. Mato Grosso’s second-crop corn was revised to an average 128 sacks/ha, up from the prior 127-sack record, on about 57 million tonnes; the state has exceeded soybean output for a second consecutive year. Adapted cultivars, better fertilizer and technical management, more fungicide applications, shorter-cycle soybeans and faster machinery use contributed, while rains extending through late June and early July rescued a crop that included roughly 1 million hectares planted outside the ideal window.
That productivity does not remove the margin problem. IMEA described the last two soy and corn crops as the most expensive ever to produce, with prices near multi-year averages and leveraged or leased operations sometimes at break-even or a loss. The next crop starts more expensive; forward soy contracts were cited around R$110–115, EBITDA remains positive but is declining for a fourth or fifth consecutive year, and producers are looking for cheaper or generic technologies.
Brazil’s national supply outlook is bullish, but the South is being damaged
Datagro projects 2026/27 Brazilian soybean production at 185.6 million tonnes, up 1%, on 49.3 million hectares; safrinha corn at 118.1 million tonnes, up 2%, on a record 19.4 million hectares; and total corn at a record 147.5 million tonnes. The federal government has announced more than R$1.3 billion in preventive El Niño measures, including R$50 million for corn and rice, R$337 million for fire prevention and R$25 million for river monitoring.
Southern weather is pulling in the opposite direction. More than 250 mm of rain in less than 24 hours in Giruá, Rio Grande do Sul, compromised fields and soil fertility; 600 hectares of canola were reported completely lost, with wheat, oats, pasture and dairy also affected. Producers described more than five consecutive climate-disrupted seasons and are seeking subsidies. Safrinha harvest is about 8% behind last year but near the five-year average; Mato Grosso is around 88% complete while Paraná is about 24% behind, and rain expected in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná from August 5–8 may delay fieldwork again.
Trade diversification and protein logistics are expanding
Brazil’s Apex Brasil says 650 agricultural markets opened in recent years represent a potential $50 billion in additional exports on top of nearly $150 billion annually; a market-diversification plan with 23 sector entities is scheduled for August 11. The agency is also pursuing fertilizer partnerships through an August mission to India and seeking new beef markets, including South Korea, where Brazilian beef is estimated by local industry to be up to 40% more competitive.
The protein channel is already showing volume growth: Brazil exported nearly 3 million tonnes of chicken meat in the first half, up 12.9% year over year, with export revenue of $5.7 billion, up 17%. Paranaguá handled at least 1 million tonnes, up 18%, raising its share of Brazil’s chicken exports from 45% to 47%.
Best Practices
Treat dairy transition performance as a direct margin lever
A dairy study based on records from 4,000 cows compared the top and bottom 20% of performers and linked transition management to reproduction, peak milk production and the speed at which a cow returns to profitability. The interview estimated that a cow at nearly 200 days open versus an ideal roughly 100–120 days can represent about $1,000 in annual lost income; on a 200-cow dairy, that is approximately $200,000.
The practical response is not a single additive: tighten transition feeding and nutrition, use a fixed-time artificial-insemination protocol suited to the transition phase, and integrate nutrition, health, management, genetics and environment rather than optimizing one component in isolation.
Calibrate nitrogen decisions with check plots before buying rescue product
A workable implementation is to place high- and low-nitrogen check plots in several locations within a field, with the low plot roughly 30 lb behind the base rate in corn. The contrast gives the imagery a field-specific reference for whether a rain event actually created nitrogen need, and it prioritizes which fields or points deserve scouting first. This is particularly useful when a farm has limited money for side-dress or manure allocation: the Nebraska example showed that a 7.5-inch rain event created additional need on some light soils but not across the whole area.
Preserve yield-critical programs while changing timing and source
A Kansas–Iowa farmer panel reported using summer-fill pricing for anhydrous ammonia, forward-pricing grain and using cattle manure to offset part of fertilizer purchases. The Iowa operator was testing late-planted, early-maturing soybeans after oats to keep living plants in the soil and add cash flow. Both farmers treated herbicide protection as non-negotiable; the Kansas farmer also declined to cut anhydrous ammonia and instead emphasized more precise technology use. These are operator strategies rather than controlled yield results, but they provide a practical low-margin decision rule: reduce waste, timing errors and unnecessary passes before removing nutrients or weed control.
Input Markets
U.S. fertilizer prices are easing, but availability risk is not
U.S. fertilizer prices had declined for seven consecutive weeks by the third week of July: UAN32 was down 14% month over month, anhydrous ammonia 11%, UAN28 6% and urea 5%; anhydrous ammonia fell below $1,000/ton for the first time since March. Despite that retreat, seven of eight tracked products remained more expensive than a year earlier, and the Strait of Hormuz remained a major volatility risk.
The regional signal is less comfortable for Brazil. In Mato Grosso, nitrogen and phosphate prices had fallen as negotiations advanced but began to look firmer again as tensions and oil rose; producers had delayed purchases, and the time to move product from Brazilian ports inland before the second-crop decision window closes is shrinking. Brazil imported 90–91% of its fertilizer before the recent wars and is now pursuing “fertilizer diplomacy,” including an India visit and efforts to attract investment into domestic production.
Market structure reflects the uncertainty: interest in CME urea futures pushed open interest in the benchmark contract to a four-year high. Kazakhstan has also opened a fertilizer export route to the United Kingdom through the Trans-Caspian/Middle Corridor, with the first shipment planned across the Caspian and Black Seas to Felixstowe.
Crop-protection pipeline adds residual flexibility
Corteva’s Enclosa, targeted at the 2027 soybean season, combines encapsulated acetochlor and cloransulam and is described as offering flexible application timing with four weeks of residual weed control. The monitored launch signal does not provide field yield or ROI data, so its immediate relevance is operational flexibility rather than a proven economic advantage.
Forward Outlook
U.S. grain risk remains concentrated in the next two formal checkpoints. Weekend rain performance and the next crop-rating update will determine whether soybean weather premium continues to unwind; the next major yield test is USDA’s August 12 report. Analysts see soybeans and corn in short-term downtrends but potentially entering a wide rangebound phase in which large breaks and rallies fail to follow through.
Brazil’s harvest calendar is a near-term execution risk. Rain from August 5–8 is expected to return to Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná, while August 10–14 is forecast to be mostly dry but hot, with central Brazil reaching about 40°C and fire risk rising. That may speed fieldwork in the Center-West while delaying wet Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul operations.
El Niño is shifting the planning horizon from harvest to 2026/27 establishment. In Brazil’s Northeast, August rainfall is expected around 30–40 mm, with practically little rain in September and only about 5–10 mm modeled for October versus a typical 70–100 mm range; the forecaster sees drought risk extending into the last quarter of 2026 and early 2027. In the South, another cyclone is expected to bring rain and further delay safrinha harvest operations.
Mato Grosso producers are being advised to buy optionality, not maximum exposure. IMEA’s current guidance is to avoid committing all seed and inputs upfront, consider planting an area that can be harvested well rather than simply maximizing hectares, and make the corn-area decision around February once the soybean planting and harvest window is clearer. The cited example is 600 hectares harvested well rather than 1,000 hectares exposed to a compressed window.
Ag PhD
Angie Setzer
Dept. of Agriculture
Market Movers
Soybeans slam below $12 as rain removes weather premium
Soybean futures closed below $12 on July 29 after forecasts put 1–3 inches of rain into the driest portions of the soybean belt during the critical early-August window. The market had already taken a significant shot: November soybeans fell roughly 50 cents from their late-July peak, with support now at $11.85–$11.90 . Analyst Jamie Gizaki of Paradigm Futures said the rains "have to perform" at this point, with the market already back at its 50% retracement level .
Corn fell largely as spillover from soybeans. Late-July damage to corn is irreversible — August rain can maintain the crop but not increase production. Key support sits at the 200-day moving average near $4.67¾ on new-crop December corn; a close below that would be bearish . A strong ethanol production number (highest since January) and crude oil's $5 rally provided underlying support, suggesting the day's corn selloff was overdone .
Wheat held up better than corn and soybeans, supported by unresolved Black Sea export disruptions and a small US crop nearing harvest end. Higher Russian export costs are making US wheat more competitive . December corn futures were down 3.5¢ at $4.77, November soybeans down 13¢ at $12.07, and September Chicago wheat down 3¢ at $6.59½ in morning trade .
Wheat reaches two-year high on Black Sea escalation
Wheat hit a two-year high as Black Sea logistics deteriorated further. One-fourth of global grain trade transits the Sea of Azov . Russia is considering equipping grain vessels with machine guns, anti-drone defenses, armor plating, and military escorts after Ukrainian drone attacks largely halted Azov shipping two weeks ago. Three major Russian export terminals — roughly 40% of annual seaborne grain exports — have begun restricting truck deliveries due to heightened security risks. Sovon lowered its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast by about 4% to 44.6 million metric tons . Russia's export estimates have been revised downward, and Ukrainian agricultural companies face bankruptcy risk .
Western Europe's fourth heat wave of the summer is compounding wheat tightness, with temperatures expected to reach 108°F and over 1 million acres already burned. USDA projects EU wheat production down 6.3% year-over-year and corn down 5.3%. The EU accounts for 16.6% of expected global wheat production and 14.5% of projected global wheat exports .
China demand pauses amid tariff tensions
No Chinese flash soybean sales were reported this week following Section 301 tariffs on Chinese robots. China has booked roughly 12% of its soybean target for new crop, and Sino Grain may sell over half a million metric tons from reserves to make room for US beans — a signal that Chinese buyers are positioning for future purchases . US exporters sold 8 million bushels of corn to unknown destinations for the next marketing year . A Market Minute newsletter summarized the bearish confluence: more rain and less heat in forecasts, negative China headlines, fear of lost sales, and crop ratings that bounced the market but forecasts suggesting no further deterioration — though demand remains very strong .
Cattle recover; hogs stall below $110
Live cattle futures recovered as the market priced in the border reopening and found chart support. Box beef has started to bottom around $360, seasonally the right time, with a chart pattern similar to last year . Rumbles of heat-related death losses in feedlots remain unconfirmed but are being monitored . Technical action was seen at $2.19 for October live cattle and $3.41 for August feeder cattle .
Hog cutout values hover at $104–$105 with good demand, but the leap to $110 remains difficult. The seasonal rally came late and will likely be shorter as a result .
Fed holds; September meeting looms
The FOMC left rates steady on July 29. Economists agreed rates should hold given current inflation numbers, but the September meeting will be critical for future rate decisions .
Brazilian commodity prices fall
International commodities were mostly lower: soybeans fell 2.34% to $11.91/bushel, corn dropped nearly 2% to $4.71, wheat held at $6.60, and coffee fell 2.76% to $3.08/lb in New York . In Brazil's physical market, soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul fell R$2.50/sack to R$140, corn in Mato Grosso held at R$46/sack, and rice in RS rose to R$69.55/sack .
Innovation Spotlight
LLM-ready weed guide pipeline for agronomic retrieval
Nick Horob is transforming herbicide weed guides into a structured database optimized for LLM retrieval. The pipeline renders each PDF page to a PNG image locally (free, no API), classifies pages using cheap heuristics with Claude Haiku for ambiguous cases, builds a document map via Claude Sonnet, then extracts content using Claude Opus's Vision API to transcribe herbicide rate tables that don't survive plain text extraction. Narrative sections use Haiku. Chunks are embedded with OpenAI's text-embedding-3-small and loaded into Supabase for hybrid semantic-plus-keyword search. An eval gate requires ≥23/25 accuracy with zero fabricated rates before a guide is considered usable. Horob plans to build a voice agent to interact with the data .
Stored grain monitoring: temperature is king
Temperature is the single most important factor in stored grain management, according to Daniel Winkowitsch of TriStates Grain Conditioning. Number 2 yellow corn at 12–14% moisture stored at 70°F begins deteriorating after about 40 days; cooling to 40°F extends safe storage to roughly 400 days . The principle applies to all grains, with varying numbers.
Key practical guidance:
- Don't freeze grain. Freezing lowers quality, wastes electricity, and can cause unloading difficulty. Cooling to 45°F is adequate .
- Moisture sensors use temperature and RH sensors with grain-specific algorithms to estimate moisture — useful for trending but less precise than official testing .
- Soybean rehydration is feasible with a properly designed system (bin depth ≤20–25 ft, temperature and moisture cables, weather station, automated controls). Cost runs $8,000–$10,000 per bin and can increase moisture by 2+ points over 6–8 months, but requires sufficient ambient humidity — not viable in arid regions .
- CO₂ monitoring provides early spoilage warning but must be combined with temperature cables to locate the problem .
- Monitoring systems can pay for themselves in one to two years through reduced electrical costs, fewer quality dockages, and the ability to hold grain for better market timing .
Midwest US farmers are the hardest to convince and lag behind other regions in grain storage management, despite global adoption in over 40 countries .
Corteva Salibro: post-plant nematode control for specialty crops
Corteva's Salibro nematicide received California registration last year for use in tree nuts, processing tomatoes, and vineyards, offering a post-plant alternative to pre-plant fumigation (Telone, chloropicrin). Its key advantage is in-season application after planting — when nematode populations continue rising through the 25-year life of an orchard, growers can still achieve control. It is applied via chemigation through drip or micro-sprinkler systems and can also be used pre-plant or in-furrow for tomatoes. Salibro controls root knot, ring, and lesion nematodes, with treatment recommended when lesion counts exceed 1–2 per sample. Its caution signal word improves worker safety .
Harvest loss prevention: deck plate gap
As little as a 1/8-inch gap between stalks and deck plates accounts for up to four bushels lost per acre. Drago's Automatic Self-Adjusting Deck Plates are designed to maintain proper contact and capture the corn grown .
Regional Developments
United States: heat damage surfaces, tar spot confirmed
Triple-digit heat indices swept across the Midwest and Plains late last week, with damage already showing up in crop condition numbers . Angie Setzer reported corn outright dying on super sandy ground in the driest part of her county — unusual for the area, though not entirely representative of broader conditions .
Tar spot is spreading in Ohio, with confirmed cases in seven counties — the first 2026 Ohio detections . Warm temperatures and extended leaf wetness are also fueling foliar disease pressure across cotton country, with Target Spot and Areolate Mildew topping the watch list .
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service celebrated record ethanol, corn, and other grain exports with the US Grains Council in Wisconsin, highlighting a drop in the agricultural trade deficit and historic market access . USDA will reopen the Douglas, Arizona, cattle port on August 24, 2026, as part of a phased reopening of three southern ports. All entering animals will undergo full USDA inspection for New World screwworm. Santa Teresa and Columbus, New Mexico, ports may reopen later depending on the Douglas evaluation .
More than 1,623 acres of Illinois farmland across 13 counties are headed to auction in August 2026 .
Brazil: tornado, storage crisis, and trade diversification
An F2 tornado with winds exceeding 200 km/h struck Giruá, Rio Grande do Sul, on July 29, destroying 10–12 rural properties including houses, silos, and barns. Dairy and swine operations were severely affected, with many animals still loose and unaccounted for. The region had been recovering from floods two years ago, with farmers investing in soil correction, but over 300 mm of rain in the past month has caused erosion and further damage .
Southern Brazil is the second most tornado-prone region globally, with severe weather events increasing in frequency and intensity — partly attributed to global warming. Recent tornadoes include an F4 in Rio Bonito (2025, winds >300 km/h) and the F2 in Giruá. Hail reaching egg size (~4.5 cm) has been reported. Continued severe weather risk exists for Mato Grosso do Sul, northern Paraná, and interior São Paulo .
Brazil's grain storage deficit exceeds 130 million tonnes. Production has grown 6.5% annually over the past decade while storage capacity grew only 4%. Analyst Carlos Cogo estimates producers lost R$109 billion over four years from inadequate storage — enough to build 100 million tonnes of new capacity and nearly eliminate the structural deficit. Despite the Plano Safra 2026/27 reducing interest rates to 9.5% for storage construction, specialists deem the reduction insufficient. The lack of on-farm storage forces simultaneous transport, raising logistics costs and quality losses .
Brazil is evaluating WTO action against the EU's ban on Brazilian beef, set to take effect September 3. Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin announced a South Korean sanitary mission to Brazil in August to advance beef export approvals as part of efforts to double bilateral trade. Brazil currently accounts for only about 1% of South Korea's $600 billion annual imports .
ABPA projects 2026 chicken meat production growth of up to 5.6% (with exports up 10.3%) and pork production up 5% to 5.87 million tons (exports up nearly 6%). Egg production is expected to reach 64 billion units. By 2027, targets include 16.6 million tons of chicken, 6 million tons of pork, and 66.5 billion eggs. Brazil's competitive advantage is reinforced by avian influenza in Europe and African swine fever in Asia. However, US tariffs have reduced Brazilian egg and pork exports to the American market .
Brazil's July IPCA-15 inflation slowed to 0.6%, with food-at-home prices falling 1.14% — driven by sharp declines in tomatoes (nearly -20%) and potatoes (over -10%). The moderation supports expectations of a further 0.25 percentage point cut in the Selic rate, currently at 14.25% .
El Niño intensifies, shaping Brazil's 2026/27 planting
A strong El Niño is already active and expected to intensify, causing hotter temperatures across Brazil, more rain in the South, and drier conditions in the North and Northeast . For Rio Brilhante, Mato Grosso do Sul, October–November rainfall is projected near or above average (100–150 mm/30 days), but daily highs of 40°C+ will reduce productivity, accelerate crop cycles, and increase pest pressure . In southern Goiás, producers should delay planting until the second half of October to avoid replanting costs after early rains followed by intense heat; November temperature anomalies of 5–7°C above average are expected . Bahia faces drought and elevated fire risk . Rio Grande do Sul will see continued heavy rain and storms through August–September, sustaining flood risk .
Turkey: sunflower harvest and Black Sea corridor call
Sunflower oil accounts for 80% of cooking oil used in Turkish kitchens. The sunflower harvest has begun in the Çukurova region, with upcoming analysis of costs, prices, and foreign trade developments . Turkish agriculture editor Irfan Donat called for the re-establishment of the Black Sea Grain Corridor, evaluating grain and oilseed market conditions and their possible effects on Turkey .
SBA-USDA lawfare portal and rural capital
The SBA-USDA partnership has created a "lawfare portal" for farmers to report regulatory overreach. By July 2026 it had received reports from 39 states covering 27 regulatory agencies, including EPA, Forest Service, USDA, SBA, and IRS. The administration has rolled back diesel exhaust fluid requirements, advanced right-to-repair, and is working to roll back the endangerment finding. SBA increased capital access to rural America with a 90% federal guarantee on loans, providing $70 million in additional capital and $7 billion in SBA loans the previous year .
Best Practices
Alfalfa: start three years ahead
Ag PhD recommends starting alfalfa planning three years in advance. Soil pH must be at least 6.8 or higher, or tonnage will be destroyed. Build deep soil levels of P, K, copper, and zinc to very high levels. Ensure calcium is at least 65% (ideally 75%) and install all needed drain tile. Pre-plant, apply the full rate of Eptam and incorporate immediately. Between each cutting, use foliar fertilizer and plant growth hormones alongside fulvic acid and insecticide if harmful bugs are present. Early each fall, apply a strobilurin fungicide like Headline .
Swine biosecurity as competitive pillar
Embrapa Suínos e Aves emphasizes biosecurity as a core pillar of modern swine production, essential in the piglet phase to prevent disease, reduce antimicrobial use, and strengthen Brazilian pork competitiveness. Key practices include all-in/all-out batch production with same-age rooms and a sanitary break (vazio sanitário) between batches to break disease cycles. Biosecurity is an investment — prevention is cheaper than any disease outbreak. Brazil is the third largest pork exporter, and disease-free status is critical for market confidence. Creating a lasting biosecurity culture requires training, communication, feedback, incentives, and commitment from all personnel, from owners to workers .
Dairy calf colostrum: the "rule of 246"
Colostrum failures are a leading cause of calf mortality on Brazilian beef farms. The "rule of 246" requires the first colostrum feeding within 2 hours of birth, total intake of at least 10% of birth weight (4 liters for a 40 kg calf) within 6 hours. Beyond 6 hours, immunoglobulin absorption declines sharply. Night births are a critical risk — a calf born at 9–10 PM reaches the 6-hour window at 3–4 AM. For dystocic (difficult) births, the calf needs assisted colostrum delivery via bottle or esophageal tube by trained personnel, plus immediate drying and warming .
Cotton foliar disease scouting
Warm temperatures and extended leaf wetness are fueling foliar disease pressure across cotton country, with Target Spot and Areolate Mildew as the primary diseases to monitor. BASF Technical Service Representative Jacob Smith recommends proactive scouting to protect yield .
Input Markets
New organomineral fertilizer launched in southern Brazil
A new organomineral fertilizer — Ferte Mais Biomis and Coperene Biomis — has been introduced, available only at Fecoagro cooperatives in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul. The product is marketed for base and coverage application across all crops, with claimed productivity gains .
US tariffs hit Brazilian leather and footwear
US tariffs of 37.5% on Brazilian leather footwear are impacting Rio Grande do Sul, the state that most exports leather shoes to the United States. One company saw its US market share drop from one-quarter of sales to 8%, forcing diversification into Europe, Oceania, and Latin America. The Brazilian leather sector exports 70% of production, and footwear-grade leather cannot easily be redirected to other uses, creating downstream pressure on raw material markets .
Forward Outlook
August weather is decisive for soybeans; USDA August 12 WASDE looms large. If forecast rains confirm, USDA's August report could show a corn yield of 187–189 bu/acre — above the 183 trend line — given the report's heavy weighting on satellite imagery. Without the rains, yields could fall to the mid-to-low 180s. The market has already priced in much of the weather improvement .
Mid-August heat may support spring wheat. The next round of heat is forecast for the northern plains in mid-August, which could provide a catalyst for spring wheat to push to new highs. US and Canadian spring wheat quality needs monitoring .
Brazil's El Niño shapes September planting. Even where rainfall will be adequate (Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo), temperatures of 40°C+ will suppress soybean productivity, accelerate crop cycles, and increase pest pressure. Center-north regions face delayed rains and November temperature anomalies of 5–7°C above average. Producers should delay planting in Goiás until the second half of October to avoid replanting costs .
Black Sea wheat logistics remain unresolved. Russia's proposal to arm grain vessels and the halting of Azov shipping show no signs of diplomatic resolution. With 40% of seaborne exports restricted and Sovon cutting the Russian wheat forecast to 44.6 MMT, global wheat supply chains stay tight. The EU beef ban on Brazil takes effect September 3, with WTO action pending .
Crude oil approaching a level that matters for grains. If WTI approaches $100, grain markets will begin trading energy more actively. At $80, day-to-day crude changes don't register, but a sustained rally would affect the grain complex through ethanol and biodiesel demand .
Tarım Editörü
Foreign Ag Service
Successful Farming
Market Movers
US grains bounce on sharply lower crop ratings
US corn and soybean conditions declined substantially in the week ending July 27, driving a corrective rally on July 28 after Monday's sharp selloff. Corn was rated 63% good-to-excellent nationally, down from 67% the prior week and below the 5-year average of 64%. Soybeans slipped to 63%, down from 66%, though still slightly above the 5-year average of 62%. Both were the lowest for this time of year since 2023 .
The damage is concentrated in the western Corn Belt. North Dakota corn fell to 50% G/E from 61%, South Dakota to 50% from 56%, Nebraska to 60% from 65%, and Kansas to 54% from 64%. The Dakotas alone represent 10.85 million acres — about 11.4% of planted US corn — and are in significant trouble. Iowa, the largest corn producer, held at 80% G/E. Analysts characterized the 4-point national drop as the largest in roughly 20 years, with ratings now 10% below year-ago levels .
December corn futures rose 2.25¢ to $4.76¼ on Tuesday morning, while November soybeans slipped 4.5¢ to $12.09¼. Monday's close had sent December corn down roughly 14¢ to $4.74 and November soybeans down nearly 40¢ to $12.14, pressured by easing US-Iran tensions, lower crude oil, and improved weather forecasts . Soybean oil fell 3.6% on Monday as the crude sell-off reduced biodiesel demand .
Despite the ratings decline, some analysts caution that USDA's August yield estimate could still rise. Historical analogs show USDA raised corn yield by 2.2 bu/acre in August 2024 and 3.3 bu/acre in August 2020, both after July rating declines, only to cut later. Favorable May-June rainfall across parts of the Corn Belt may support a bump in the process . One South Dakota-based analyst trimmed his yield estimate from trend-line 183 bu/acre to 181.5, with downside potential to 175–176 .
Export demand remains constructive
Private exporters reported sales of 197,272 MT of corn to unknown destinations for MY 2026/2027 . US soybean flash sales totaled 5 million bushels to China and 5 million to unknown destinations for the next marketing year. Chinese new-crop commitments reached roughly 3 million metric tons, about 12% of the 25 MMT White House target . Export inspections for the week ending July 23 showed corn at 59 million bushels (down 7.7% week-over-week), soybeans at 13 million (up 9.3%), and wheat at 15 million (up 72%) .
However, Chinese private crushers face poor crush margins on US and Brazilian beans, which could slow demand. China also announced a soybean auction to make room for continuing imports .
Turkey lifts bread wheat export ban
Turkey's TMO lifted the export ban on bread wheat and wheat broken, effective July 29, ending a restriction in place since March 2025 . This adds a wheat supply source to the global market at a time when Black Sea export logistics remain uncertain. Wheat momentum has shifted lower over the past week as traders determined recent Russia-Ukraine attacks had not caused major damage to key grain terminals, though concerns persist that Russia's export supply chain may be disrupted. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting Monday at Ukraine's urging .
Cattle stabilize; hogs supported
Cattle futures recovered on July 28 after Monday's sharp losses tied to the Mexican border reopening announcement. Deferred feeder contracts appear to have the border reopening largely priced in, while front-end live cattle are supported by tight domestic supplies. Cash cattle trade was steady to slightly softer, but the cash market has corrected over $30 in three weeks, giving packers leverage. Sustained recovery depends on higher cash trade . Hogs continue to see rising cash prices and cutout values above $100/cwt, with funds still short .
Brazilian soybean demand surges despite record crop
Brazilian soybean exports from January to July 2026 reached nearly 81 million tons of grain (up 5% year-over-year), meal exports grew over 10% to nearly 15 million tons, and soybean oil exports surged 40% to 1.34 million tons — already exceeding the total for all of 2025. The record ~180-million-ton crop is nearly fully committed: potential grain exports up to 115 Mt, crush around 40 Mt, and biodiesel demand near 30 Mt, leaving little room and likely requiring stock drawdowns. This supports strong domestic prices (R$127–130/sack in western Mato Grosso) partially decoupled from Chicago .
Innovation Spotlight
John Deere launches predictive-automation combines in Brazil
John Deere's new S7 combine, launched this year in Brazil, uses front cameras and satellite NDVI/biomass maps to read the crop 8 meters ahead and automatically adjust concave, sieve, and speed settings during harvest. The company reports a 20% productivity gain, 4.5% fuel reduction, and 10% better grain quality. The larger X9 model uses dual rotors for higher processing capacity at low fuel consumption. A new CR series corn header (12–27 rows) adds automation of the stripper plate and rear axle, delivering up to 12% more hectares per hour, 9% better fuel efficiency, and three times fewer losses. These machines are produced locally in Brazil .
USDA establishes Regenerative Agriculture Advisory Council
USDA is establishing the Chief's Regenerative Agriculture Advisory Council with 15 members: nine regenerative farmers representing different production systems, three corporate supply-chain/CPG representatives, and three consumer or MAHA representatives. Its stated role is to advise on how regenerative practices should be defined, measured, and supported — explicitly not to set standards or impose requirements. The actionable funding is a $700 million pilot flowing through EQIP and CSP by state ranking dates, plus a feedstock rule market pathway for corn and soybeans .
This follows a Trump administration executive order directing USDA, EPA, and HHS to expand support for voluntary regenerative agriculture without strictly defining it, opening opportunities for precision agriculture, new crop protection products, and federal incentives. EPA also cleared a backlog of new pesticide registrations after industry advocacy .
Regional Developments
United States: crop divergence widens, spring wheat stalled
The US crop picture is increasingly bifurcated. While the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas deteriorate, Iowa (80% G/E), Minnesota (77%), and northern Illinois remain strong. Illinois has run below average all year at 59% G/E versus 68% average . July rainfall for US corn areas averaged an estimated 3.42 inches, the lowest July total since 2014, with an average temperature of 78.15°F — stressful but far less severe than 2012's 2.07 inches and 81.7°F .
Spring wheat held at 53% G/E, above the 5-year average of 49%, but heat is trimming yield by pushing the crop to harvest too fast. USDA reported the first spring wheat harvest progress of the season, but Montana and North Dakota remain at 0%. Winter wheat harvest reached 81% complete, ahead of the 79% average .
More than 8,700 acres of Iowa farmland are set for auction in August 2026 . In North Carolina, after one of the driest starts to a year on record, heavy July rains are improving soil moisture as corn, soybeans, cotton, and peanuts advance .
Brazil: WTO filing, cyclones, and credit crunch converge
Brazil filed a WTO consultation against two US tariffs imposed under Section 301: 25% on digital commerce/Pix and 12.5% on forced labor. The US has 10 days to respond, followed by up to 60 days of negotiations before a panel could be requested. Analysts note the WTO lacks coercive mechanisms to enforce any ruling .
Three extratropical cyclones are battering Rio Grande do Sul over 7–9 days, with wind gusts exceeding 100 km/h, large hail, and accumulated rainfall potentially reaching 200–300 mm on already saturated soils. The storms are advancing into Santa Catarina, Paraná, and toward São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. At least 30 cities reported damage .
In contrast, the rest of Brazil faces dry, hot conditions driven by a strengthening El Niño. Sea-surface temperature anomalies exceed 3°C in the equatorial Pacific, approaching "mega-El Niño" territory. Cuiabá hit a record July temperature of 38.6°C, with models pointing to temperatures above 40°C in late August/September. Fire foci are spreading in Matopiba and the southeast interior .
Brazil's safrinha corn harvest has exceeded 60% of planted area, with Mato Grosso above 80%, but is delayed in Goiás and Paraná due to weather . Consultant Carlos Cogo placed the harvest at 58% versus a 66% five-year average, noting that falling oil prices reduce ethanol competitiveness and pressure corn, while a European heatwave in France and Spain supports corn prices .
Brazil's credit crisis deepens ahead of September planting
Weeks before soybean planting begins, Mato Grosso producers face a severe credit squeeze. Net income per hectare has collapsed from roughly R$4,000 to under R$1,000 for soybeans and from R$3,000 to under R$70 for corn. Interest rates reach 17–18% annually (Selic at 14.25% plus 4% bank spread), against the Rural Credit Manual ceiling of 12% and net farm margins averaging just 5% in normal years. At 30% leverage, interest payments consume the entire profit .
Provisional Measure 1376, designed to facilitate debt renegotiation, has not yet been implemented by banks. Economist Antônio da Luz estimates only about 10% of producer debts will qualify for restructuring. The measure excludes CPRs (Rural Product Notes), which account for 43% of total agricultural credit, and benefits only defaulters — punishing farmers who stayed current by accepting high-interest CPRs at 17–20% to remain solvent. Rio Grande do Sul is the most indebted state but has the lowest default rate .
ABPA projects continued protein growth
The Brazilian Animal Protein Association projects 2026 production growth of up to 5.6% for chicken meat (with exports up 10.3%) and 5% for pork (reaching 5.87 million tons, exports up nearly 6%). Egg production is expected to reach 64 billion units. By 2027, targets include 16.6 million tons of chicken, 6 million tons of pork, and 66.5 billion eggs. US tariffs have reduced Brazilian egg and pork exports to the American market, but new market access includes China (bone-in beef after FMD-free recognition), Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and India .
Best Practices
Soybean fungicide at early R3
Ag PhD recommends spraying soybeans at the early R3 (podding) stage with fungicide and insecticide, plus optional foliar fertilizer, noting that returns in soybeans have usually exceeded those in corn. Scout first for insects and mites. For fungicide selection, Lucento is preferred if avoiding green stems at harvest; otherwise choose a 2- or 3-mode-of-action product with a strobilurin for plant health benefits. Adding fulvic acid (Nutex EDA or Fulfour) for approximately $3 has improved results, and a quart or two of foliar fertilizer provides a fertility boost .
Break the green bridge
The "green bridge" — living vegetation that allows insects and diseases to persist between crops — can be broken with at least 1–2 weeks of bare fallow before the next crop. This can be achieved through tillage, herbicides, or insecticides. Weeds and volunteer crops serve as hosts for the same pests, so complete elimination of vegetation is most effective. The concept is especially relevant now as small grain harvest approaches .
Central Iowa scouting priorities
A Hoegemeyer agronomist in Carroll, Iowa, reports disease pressure is low so far this season, with southern rust not yet at treatment levels. His mid-July advice: obtain accurate stand counts in corn now, and after pollination, take ear counts to set realistic yield expectations — final stands may fall short of planting rates after a challenging late-May emergence window. In soybeans, monitor for white mold when nights drop into the 60s°F with high dew points; current nights in the 70s do not favor the disease. A field day at the Carroll master plot is scheduled for August 25 .
Strip-till conference approaches
The 13th National Strip Tillage Conference is set for August 6–7 in Springfield, Illinois, with a pre-conference workshop at the Bayer Crop Science Research Farm (August 2–5, capped at 100). Sessions include Brian Hefty on fertilizer and herbicide selection for strip-till, Dean Sponheim on overcoming psychological barriers to change, Chris Perkins and Chris Casten on data-driven nutrient management analyzing quantities rather than concentrations, and Wes Arseno on making strip-till work on poorly drained soils with cover crops .
Hay market firming
The HayWire National Hay Index reached $191/ton for the week of July 27, up 1.7% on the week, based on 15 markets reporting. By type: alfalfa $217/ton, orchard grass $192, mixed grass $152, and grass $114. The index uses only real USDA auction and direct-sale trades — no asking prices or estimates — and is a national all-grades number, so premium cuttings trade above and low-grade below .
Input Markets
Middle East conflict disrupts fertilizer supply
The Iran-Israel-US conflict is disrupting global fertilizer markets. Approximately 30–34% of global nitrogen fertilizer production is located in the conflict region, and production costs are tied to natural gas, which varies with oil prices. For phosphates, roughly 50% of global sulfur — essential for phosphate production — comes from the same region, affecting supply globally. Brazil, which imports 87% of its fertilizers, has seen imports fall 8–10% versus 2025, and farmer purchases are down 14–15% (66% commercialization progress versus 80% last year). Soybean planting begins in September, making the logistics timeline tight .
Rail merger opposed over fertilizer transport costs
ARRA (Agricultural Retailers Association) opposes the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern rail merger, noting that 90% of freight rail is already controlled by four railroads, rail costs have risen 40% in 20 years, and anhydrous ammonia rates have increased 200% since the mid-2000s. Two-thirds of fertilizer inputs move by rail. Past mergers caused service disruptions severe enough for federal regulators to temporarily halt consolidation, and the STB requires mergers to enhance competition — a standard this merger does not meet .
Forward Outlook
August weather is decisive for soybeans; corn yield remains contested. Forecasts have turned wetter over the next 7 days (GFS: 172% of normal rainfall for US corn areas), which may support soybean development and limit rally momentum. North Dakota will largely miss the rain and remain 10+ degrees above normal. The $12.04 gap on November soybeans is an immediate downside target if the market pulls back further .
Brazil's dual weather risk is intensifying. El Niño SST anomalies above 3°C point to delayed planting rains in the Southeast, Center-West, and Northeast, potentially extending into November. Meanwhile, Rio Grande do Sul faces repeated cyclone-driven flooding. Both risks threaten Brazil's next soybean crop, which is already financially constrained .
Brazilian credit and fertilizer constraints could limit September planting. With net income collapsed, interest rates at 17–18%, MP 1376 unimplemented, and fertilizer purchases down 14–15%, some producers may struggle to fully finance and input the 2026/27 soybean crop. The credit crisis is the more binding constraint than input prices .
The US-Brazil trade dispute is escalating but lacks enforcement. Brazil's WTO consultation is largely symbolic given the organization's weakened coercive power. The more immediate impact is on Brazilian egg and pork exports to the US, while Brazilian agribusiness diversifies toward China, Indonesia, and other markets .
Watch USDA's August 12 report and FSA data. Early-August FSA acreage data and the August 12 USDA report will provide the next formal yield and acreage benchmarks. Given the sharp rating decline, the market will scrutinize whether USDA's process-driven August estimate diverges from private yield models .
Arlan Suderman
Foreign Ag Service
Joel Salatin
Market Movers
U.S. grains: sharp risk-off reversal
U.S. futures sold off sharply on July 27: December corn opened down 13¾¢ at $4.73¾/bu., November soybeans down 34¾¢ at $12.18¾, and the three September wheat contracts down 6½–7½¢. Later reports put soybeans down more than 3% near $12.11/bu., corn near $4.73, and wheat near $5.58.
The reversal coincided with a pause in U.S.-Iran fighting, a $6–$7 decline in crude oil, and a wetter seven-day forecast for central and eastern Corn Belt areas. The forecast still leaves the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas below normal for precipitation, while heat remains a near-term concern in western areas.
Soybeans also face trade-policy sensitivity: China’s tariff rate rises to 12.5%, bringing the stated net rate to 22.2%. Yet private exporters reported new-crop sales of 132,000 metric tons to China and 126,000 MT to unknown destinations. Marketing-year soybean inspections remain 61 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA’s target; corn is 181 million bushels ahead.
Cattle: border reopening drives a limit-down response
Cattle futures fell sharply after USDA said the Douglas, Arizona, port will reopen to Mexican cattle imports on August 24 under a phased approach. Douglas historically handled about 150,000 head annually; reopening the Santa Teresa and Columbus, New Mexico, ports later could restore roughly 600,000 head of annual import capacity.
Before the closure, U.S. imports from Mexico were roughly 1 million head annually, about 5% of U.S. fed-cattle slaughter. All entering cattle are to pass through disinfectant dip vats intended to prevent New World screwworm spread.
The immediate market reaction reflected uncertainty over supply and margins, but the eventual volume remains unclear. Mexico has expanded feedlot and processing capacity, and beef imports have risen as live-cattle imports declined.
Innovation Spotlight
Daily multi-species grazing at Polyface Farm — United States
Polyface Farm in Virginia describes a daily rotational system built around portable electric fencing. Cattle are moved each afternoon to capture the rapid-growth “teenage grass” phase; laying hens follow in mobile units, scratching manure, consuming fly larvae and insects, and distributing fertility.
The farm reports nearly 400 cow-days per acre, compared with a county average of 80 cow-days per acre. It also reports organic matter increasing from roughly 1% in 1961 to more than 8%, following tree planting and managed grazing on land it describes as formerly gullied and rocky. These are farm-reported results, not independently validated trial data.
Biostimulants: adoption remains early
Biostimulants are described as nonliving substances—such as seaweed extracts and amino-acid products—that can influence root health, plant performance, nutrient mobilization and stress response. They differ from biologicals, which are living organisms such as Bacillus species or mycorrhizal fungi.
Potential application windows include in-furrow, with herbicides to help manage application stress, and early vegetative/post passes. Reported adoption is below 25% of acres, and the discussion cited its best return on vegetative applications; however, no independent yield or ROI figures were supplied. Labeling requirements are also limited, though farm-bill discussions could require clearer disclosure of active ingredients and concentrations.
Regional Developments
United States: crop variability is widening
Midwest conditions remain highly uneven. In southeast Indiana, well-drained fields are reported to be strong, while low-lying fields flooded by late-June and early-July rain were lost and replanted to uninsured soybeans. Across the Corn Belt and Plains, heat, delayed eastern planting, pollination concerns and disease pressure are complicating the yield outlook.
Southern rust is active in parts of both the western and eastern Corn Belt, prompting more fungicide applications after losses reported in Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota last season. USDA’s cited condition figure places 67% of U.S. corn in good/excellent condition, 7 percentage points below the same period last year.
Brazil: weather and finance are material production risks
Rio Grande do Sul faces three consecutive extratropical cyclones over seven days. Forecast accumulations may exceed 200–300 mm on already saturated soils, increasing risks of flooding, river overflow and fieldwork disruption.
Elsewhere, 38–40°C heat is expected in Mato Grosso and other central areas, increasing fire risk. El Niño-linked analysis also points to delayed and below-average planting rains in parts of Brazil’s Southeast, Center-West and Northeast, potentially extending into November or December.
Brazilian producers also face tight credit conditions. The Selic rate is reported at 15%, while commercial agriculture has R$525.1 billion allocated under Plano Safra 2026/27. In Mato Grosso, growers cite financing rates of 17–18% against farm margins that may be far lower.
Best Practices
Grains: match crop protection to field-level risk
- Scout variable fields separately. Flooded low ground, late-planted eastern Corn Belt fields, and heat-exposed Plains acres do not share the same yield or disease outlook. Evaluate pollination, disease and insect risk before treating.
- Manage leaf-wetness risk. In humid areas such as south-central Kentucky, high dew points can extend moisture on corn leaves. Local producers report proactive fungicide use where disease pressure warrants it.
- Avoid overcommitting uncertain production. Producers facing a wide corn-yield range should weigh expected bushels, cash-flow needs, break-evens, spreads and storage cost before making sales.
Dairy and livestock: prioritize forage, heat and health management
- Plan forage inventory ahead of weather stress. Brazilian livestock commentary emphasizes supplementation, deferred grazing and hay as tools when roughage supply falls.
- Reduce heat load in confinement. Use shade and sprinklers where available, and avoid handling or shipping cattle during peak heat.
- Use herd data in dairy planning. U.S. milk cows were reported up 2% year over year and replacement heifers up 3%; in Santa Catarina, milk intake rose 6% in the first quarter versus 2025. Higher collection can pressure producer prices if industrial absorption weakens.
Soil management: build biomass and biological activity
For rotational-grazing systems, the Polyface approach offers a practical sequence: allow forage to reach its rapid-growth phase, move cattle frequently with portable fencing, and follow with poultry where the operation can support the added labor and infrastructure. The reported objective is more forage biomass, cleaner regrowth and manure redistribution.
Input Markets
No quantified fertilizer, feed or crop-chemical price changes were provided in this update. The main U.S. policy development is that new Section 301 tariffs exempt several farm-critical inputs: seed, fertilizers, crop-protection products, machinery and replacement parts. Other farmer-relevant products may still face duties.
For Brazilian producers, the more immediate constraint is financing rather than a listed input-price increase. Credit supply is described as restricted amid elevated costs and defaults, while demand remains high due to growing planted area and input inflation.
Forward Outlook
- Weather will remain the central grain-market variable. Near-term rainfall may ease stress in central and eastern Corn Belt areas, but heat and below-normal rain risks persist in the western Corn Belt and Plains.
- Separate market corrections from demand signals. The grain selloff followed removal of war premium, crude weakness and forecast rain, while soybean sales and export-inspection pace remain constructive indicators to monitor.
- Prepare cattle procurement plans for phased border reopening. The August 24 Douglas opening is initially limited; broader supply implications depend on whether New Mexico ports reopen.
- Brazilian planning should incorporate two distinct risks: flooding and fieldwork delays in the South, alongside heat, fire exposure and potentially delayed planting rains farther north and west.
homesteading, farming, gardening, self sufficiency and country life
Successful Farming
Joel Salatin
Market Movers
U.S. grain markets rallied, led by wheat. Winter-wheat contracts reached new highs amid Black Sea export disruption, while new-crop soybeans also made new contract highs. Market commentators attributed soybean support chiefly to large Chinese new-crop purchases, with weather risk a secondary near-term factor.
- Soybeans — U.S./China: The analysts said that continued Chinese buying toward an annual 25 million metric-ton target would keep the balance sheet tight. They viewed a dry August that trims national trend yield by 1–2 bu./acre as a condition that could take ending stocks well below 300 million bushels and put $13–$13.50 soybeans into consideration. These are conditional market views, not forecasts.
- Corn — U.S. Midwest: Corn has followed wheat higher. Drier conditions in parts of the Midwest, following earlier excessive moisture, and potential denitrification are raising concern that trend yield of 183 bu./acre may be difficult to achieve; some agronomists cited in the discussion argue yield could fall below 180. The panel saw a path to $5+ corn if dry forecasts persist, funds add length and crude oil rises.
- Fund positioning: The cited estimate puts funds from short roughly 70,000 corn contracts on June 30 to long roughly 70,000 contracts. The discussion tied the shift to improving technicals and inflation-oriented buying amid crude-oil and Southern Hemisphere weather concerns.
Innovation Spotlight
Pasture rotation at Polyface Farm — United States
Joel Salatin describes moving cattle daily and using portable shelters to move thousands of chickens across pasture. This provides a concrete rotational-management model for livestock operators evaluating mobile infrastructure and frequent pasture moves.
The source does not provide measured yield, cost, labor or return-on-investment data for this system. It also says the farm operates without vaccinations or medications, which is a description of that farm's approach rather than a general animal-health protocol.
Soil-moisture mapping and recycled-glass claims
An AgriTech post flags OPTRAM for mapping soil moisture from space, but the available material supplies no accuracy, cost, coverage, or farm-performance data.
In Australia, recycled glass bottles are being proposed as a way to help farmers through a fertilizer crisis. One commenter reported that current users were seeing good results while using less fertilizer, but no trial design, application rate, yield data, or economics were supplied.
Regional Developments
Black Sea — Ukraine/Russia export corridor
The wheat rally reflects disruption to Black Sea exports. The market discussion says missile exchanges involving shipping have slowed movement of products, including grain, to a “snail’s pace”; it expects this could eventually shift export business toward the United States, though it says that shift has not yet appeared.
U.S. Corn Belt — weather and crop risk
The northern and northwestern Corn Belt is the focus of a warmer, drier pattern. The cited analysts see potential yield consequences if that pattern persists into August, particularly for soybeans and corn.
Australia and the Southern Hemisphere — seasonal risk watch
The market discussion associates a potential super El Niño with warmer/drier conditions in southern Brazil, excessive wetness in northern Brazil and Argentina, and a drier outlook for Australia. These are scenario-based weather concerns rather than reported crop losses.
Best Practices
Manage known production constraints before adding inputs
- Soil pH: Successful Farming highlights lime as a tool for managing soil pH and increasing yields. The available update does not include soil-test targets, rates, material selection, or crop-specific response data, so applications should remain guided by local testing rather than this post alone.
- Corn weed control: Ag PhD points to a low-cost herbicide option for velvetleaf in corn, but the extracted material does not identify the active ingredient, rate, timing, or label restrictions. No actionable product recommendation can be supported from the available note.
- Pasture poultry: For producers seeking more orange egg yolks, Successful Farming attributes yolk color to diet, noting pasture access and xanthophyll-rich feed ingredients such as carrots, apricots, pumpkins and red cabbage.
- Young cattle health: A homesteading discussion describes loose manure with fresh blood after a move and feed change. A commenter suggested coccidiosis and stressed prompt veterinary confirmation and treatment; this is a community comment, not a diagnosis.
Input Markets
No quantified fertilizer, feed, or chemical price and availability changes were provided in this update.
The main input-related discussion is phosphorus. Commenters debating the recycled-glass proposal cautioned that the approach could draw on soil P reserves and eventually require phosphorus replacement greater than removals. Another questioned the presentation of 50 kg/ha P figures and the lack of detail across soil types. These are concerns raised in discussion, not validated performance findings.
Forward Outlook
- Watch Chinese new-crop buying and U.S. August weather together. The soybean thesis presented depends on both continued Chinese demand and a material yield shortfall.
- Monitor Black Sea shipping flow for wheat-export implications. The cited panel considers U.S. export gains possible if disruption persists, but reports no confirmed gain yet.
- Treat the grain bull case as conditional. The discussion's “perfect storm” would require lower U.S. corn yields, Chinese corn purchases, European disruption and Southern Hemisphere weather problems to align.
- Validate emerging soil and input tools locally. OPTRAM and recycled-glass fertilizer concepts are worth tracking, but the supplied material does not establish field-level ROI, rate guidance, or long-term nutrient balance.
Ag PhD
AgriTech
Successful Farming
Market Movers
No quoted commodity-price changes were included in the available updates. A market-relevant livestock development is the reported closure of JBS’s Pennsylvania beef processing plant, which a cited report says could affect Ontario cattle producers; the source provides no timing, volume, or price-impact estimate.
Innovation Spotlight
Fungicide-decision software
A fourth-generation farmer and college student introduced Veldant.com, a web application intended to support fungicide decisions and improve yield and ROI. The product offers free registration and an $8 pro version.
The post does not provide field-trial results, yield changes, or ROI calculations, so its performance cannot be assessed from the available information.
Regional Developments
United States — New York
New York confirmed its first tar spot case of the growing season this week. The update also points readers to the state’s latest corn progress and condition reports, although the extracted material does not include the underlying figures.
United States/Canada — cattle processing
The reported Pennsylvania JBS plant closure has potential implications across the border for Ontario cattle producers. No further details on the affected supply chain were provided.
Best Practices
The available material identifies two crop-management subjects but does not provide application thresholds or step-by-step protocols:
- Potassium: An Ag PhD update raises the question of how much potassium is too much, without stating a rate, soil-test benchmark, or crop-specific limit.
- Pre-harvest crop management: Another update highlights a distinction between pre-harvest burndown and desiccation, but the extracted content does not explain the techniques or their respective use cases.
Input Markets
Potassium is the only fertilizer input explicitly raised in the source set. No potassium pricing, supply availability, recommended application rate, or regional market trend was included.
Forward Outlook
Near-term planning attention is centered on disease and decision support rather than quantified market signals:
- New York corn: Tar spot is now a confirmed in-season issue in the state.
- Fungicide decisions: Veldant presents a low-cost digital option for evaluating fungicide decisions, though independent performance metrics were not supplied.
- Ontario cattle sector: The potential effects of the Pennsylvania processing-plant closure remain an item to follow; the available report does not quantify the exposure.