0:01THE COUNTDOWN IS ON. EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO GET THE EDGE AT THE END OF THE MARKET DAY. THIS IS THE CLOSE. ROMAINE: ELEVATED OIL PRICES KEEPING A LID ON U.S. EQUITIES. FROM STUDIO TWO HERE BLOOMBERG HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK, I AM ROMAINE BOSTICK. EMILY: I AM EMILY GRAFFEO. THE MARKET IS LOWER IN THE EQUITIES SPACE. THE S&P 500 DOWN ABOUT .6% AND TECH STOCKS GETTING HIT AS WELL.
0:33WE DO HAVE THE U.S. AND IRAN STANDOFF CONTINUING AND THAT IS BOOSTING OIL PRICES WITH BRENT CRUDE, A LITTLE BIT OF A PULLBACK ON THAT RALLY BUT IT IS STILL AT 105 HERE PER BARREL AND THAT IS BOOSTING YIELDS AS WELL. THE U.S. 10 YEAR YIELD HOVERING AROUND A NEARLY TWO DECADE HIGH AS THOUGHTS ABOUT INFLATION PERSISTING IN WHAT THE FED IS GOING TO DO CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH MARKETS.
0:55ROMAINE:ROMAINE: BACK TO OIL BECAUSE THE NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN IRAN ARE CLEARLY EXHAUSTING MARKETS FOR NOW. CRUDE TRADERS ARE PAYING THROUGH THE NOSE FOR BARRELS IN THE SHORT-TERM BUT TAKE A LOOK AT THAT FUTURES CURB.
1:09IT IS AN BACKWARDATION WHICH SUGGESTS TRADERS TO SEE YOU AT LOWER PRICES IN THE NEXT SIX TO 12 MONTHS BUT CRACKS SPREAD -- THAT IS BLOWN OUT AND IT IS THAT SPREAD THAT IS THE CLEAREST TO TELL OF THE LACK OF CONVICTION FOR AN IMMINENT RESOLUTION TO THE SEVEN-MONTH SHUTDOWN OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND AS -- IT IS THE LACK OF CONVICTION THAT HAS SUCKED A LOT OF WIND OUT OF THE EQUITY MARKETS.
1:33THAT IS AT THE LOWEST SINCE THE DOT-COM BUBBLE ACCORDING TO GOLDMAN'S STRATEGISTS AND THEY SAY WHILE THE S&P IS ONLY ABOUT 1%, THE MEDIAN STOCK, 16% BELOW THEIR 52 WEEK HIGHS. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DECLINING STOCK MARKET AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE ELEVATED ENERGY PRICES, IT IS YIELDS.
1:52ONE MONTH ROLLING CORRELATIONS RIGHT NOW BETWEEN THE WTI CONTRACT AND THE 10 MONTH TREASURY YIELD AT 0.9 SIX, THE DRUG IS POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP SINCE THE MIDDLE OF 2019 AND AT ONE POINT, THE TENURE ACTUALLY SURGED 11 BASIS POINTS, ONLY THE SIXTH TIME THIS YEAR THE BENCHMARK HAS RISEN INTRADAY 10 POINTS OR MORE. TO BE SURE, WE SHOULD POINT OUT
2:18THAT MOVES SO FAR THIS YEAR ARE STILL LESS VIOLENT THAN WHAT WE SAW IN 2022, 2013, OR EVEN IN 1994 SO THE QUESTION BECOMES DOES THAT JUMP IN YIELDS SINCE FEBRUARY SIGNAL HIGHER STRUCTURAL FLOORS FOR YIELDS OR IS THIS ALL A VOLATILITY CYCLE THAT WILL END, CREATING THE OPPORTUNITY TO BUY INTO A POTENTIAL PRICE RECOVERY?
2:40ONE OF THE THINGS THAT PUZZLED US IS THE MOVE FROM 390 TO OVER 5% WAS PRETTY ORDERLY AND WE WERE ALWAYS LOOKING FOR A BLOWOFF TOP. WE NEVER GOT IT AND HIT OUR NOMINAL AND REAL YIELD LEVELS AND DID SOME BUYING.
2:54FOR US, THE BIGGER PROBLEM WAS WHEN WE GOT DOWN TO 493, DO WE CHASE IT? FIVE TO THREE IS A MUCH HAPPIER PLACE FOR US IN THE BOND MARKET. >> BOB MICHELE SPEAKING A LITTLE BIT EARLIER ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION AND JOINING US RIGHT NOW TO COUNTDOWN TO THE CLOSING BELLS IS REBECCA, FIXED INCOME CLIENT PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT VANGUARD. GREAT TO SEE YOU HERE.
3:18IT IS KIND OF INTERESTING WHEN WE START TO TALK ABOUT THE VOLATILITY WE HAVE SEEN IN THE BOND MARKET.
3:25IS IT THE RATE OF CHANGE OR IS IT THE ACTUAL AGGREGATE LEVEL THAT SEEMS TO BE HITTING PEOPLE -- GIVING PEOPLE A LITTLE BIT OF@TICTOC? -- OF AGITA?
3:37OVER 100 BASIS POINTS IF WE LOOK AT THE 10 YEAR. MUCH OF THAT MOVE WAS A SLOW BUILD REALLY BASED ON THE MARKET RECOGNIZING THE STRONGER GROWTH THAT HAS HAPPENED SO FAR THIS YEAR BUT RECENTLY, OBVIOUSLY, THE MOVE HAS BEEN A LOT BIGGER. THIS IS THE MARKET TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE FED IS SERIOUS ABOUT INFLATION.
3:58WHAT EXACTLY DOES THE HIKING CYCLE NEED TO LOOK LIKE TO COOL INFLATION AT THE PACE THEY WOULD LIKE TO SEE?
4:04THAT IS AN OPEN QUESTION IN MARKETS AND EVERY TIME WE GET A STRONG DATA GROWTH POINT, GROWTH DATA POINT, SOMETHING THAT IS WORRISOME ABOUT INFLATION, WE ARE GOING TO SEE THE MARKET REACTION IN THE NEAR TERM.
4:15IN THE CONTEXT OF THE COMMENT, HE GAVE A LONGER SORT OF EXPLANATION TO HOW HE SEES IT WITH POTENTIALLY A BUYING OPPORTUNITY AND BAKED INTO THAT IS THIS IDEA THAT NOT ONLY MAY YIELDS BE NEAR THEIR PEAK BUT IF THIS IS ALL DRIVEN BY ENERGY, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, ETC., IN THEORY, THAT IS A CYCLE THAT WILL COME TO AN END AND THIS GIVES SOME RELIEF TO THE BOND MARKET. DO YOU BUY THAT?
4:41WE ARE IN THE CAMP OF SEEING RISKS TO BOTH SIDES RIGHT NOW. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE RISKS ARE SYMMETRIC. THERE IS GOOD POINTS TO WHAT BOB WAS SAYING.
4:51THE JOBS REPORT LATER THIS WEEK, POTENTIAL RESOLUTION TO THE CONFLICTS DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT TODAY BUT YOU KNOW, THAT COULD HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE AND THOSE WITH BOTH DEPOSITORS FOR WHERE RATES COULD GO. RATES COULD FALL FROM THERE BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PRESSURE IN THE NEAR TERM SO IN OUR VIEW, THERE IS NOT A BIG ASYMMETRIC TRADE RIGHT NOW AT LEAST FROM AN ACTIVE MANAGEMENT STANDPOINT. BUT WE DO THINK FOR INVESTORS, THIS COULD BE A GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LONG-TERM INVESTOR THAT IT'S A LITTLE BIT OF A FOOL'S ERRAND TO TRY TO CALL THE PEAK IN YIELDS AND WE JUST SEE THIS AS A GREAT ENTRY POINT BECAUSE YIELDS ARE SO MUCH HIGHER TODAY.
5:22A LOT MORE PROTECTION IN CASE THERE'S MORE PRESSURE IN THE NEAR TERM.
5:27WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE FLATTENING OF THE YIELD CURVE?
5:29ARE YOU CONCERNED AT ALL THAT THAT FLATTENING TURNS INTO A YIELD CURVE INVERSION AND THAT WOULD SIGNAL SOME WEAKNESS IN THE ECONOMY?
5:37THAT IS ALL GOING TO DEPEND ON THE FENCE PATH OF COURSE AND WE ARE GOING TO BE WATCHING THE DATA CLOSELY TO SEE WHAT EXACTLY THE MARKET EXPECTS AND WHAT THE FED DELIVERS. SO FAR, THE CURVE FLATTENING AS IT HAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS IS A PRETTY NORMAL REACTION, SOMETHING WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE GIVEN THE MARKET IS NOW EXPECTING FOUR ADDITIONAL HIKES BY THIS TIME NEXT YEAR FROM THE FED.
5:59I WANT TO PIVOT TO CREDIT JUST FOR A MOMENT HERE AND KIND OF GET YOUR SENSE OF WHY WE HAVE NOT SEEN A LARGE WHITENING IN CREDIT SPREADS DESPITE THE FACT THAT YIELDS ARE THIS ELEVATED. IS THAT MARKET JUST TO BE INTO WHAT IS GOING ON IN RATES?
6:16IT IS SOMETHING WE ARE CLOSELY WATCHING BECAUSE ONE OF THE THINGS THAT MAY INDICATE WE ARE ACTUALLY SEEING A PEAK IN YIELDS IS RISK ASSETS RESPONDING MORE FULLY THAN THEY HAVE SO FAR. WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE WEAKNESS IN EQUITIES. SOME SPREAD -- CREDIT SPREAD WHITENING BUT I THINK WE POINT TO TWO THINGS. THE FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP IS STILL VERY STRONG AND WE ARE GOING TO START EARNINGS SEASON PRETTY SOON HERE.
6:38WE EXPECT IT TO BE ANOTHER ROBUST QUARTER BEYOND THAT. WE KNOW THAT INVESTMENT GRADE COMPANIES HAVE RUN THEIR BALANCE SHEETS VERY CONSERVATIVELY AND THEY ARE IN A HEALTHY POSITION SO THAT JUST SETS A GREAT FOUNDATION FOR THESE MARKETS.
6:53WON'T HAVE SEEN IS AS YIELDS SELLOFF, THAT NOT ONLY BRINGS MORE INVESTOR INTEREST INTO THE ASSET CLASS, WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE HIGHER RATES GO TO A CERTAIN POINT, IT BRINGS MORE FLOWS WHICH ARE THEN GOING TO KEEP A LID ON WHERE CREDIT SPREADS CAN GROW. BOTH FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL'S ARE PACKING UP THE STABILITY WE HAVE SEEN IN CREDIT.
7:12WITH REGARDS TO PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION AND THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING WITH FIXED INCOME AND EQUITIES, THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF TALK ABOUT BASICALLY COMPETITION FOR YIELDS. THE IDEA THAT IN THE FIXED INCOME SPACE AND CERTAINLY INCORPORATE CREDIT, IN THEORY, YOU COULD PROBABLY GET SIMILAR YIELDS OUT OF THAT THAT YOU MIGHT GET ON EQUITIES IF YOU BELIEVE THE FORECAST AND WHERE PEOPLE THINK THE MARKET IS GOING TO GO.
7:34IS THAT SOMETHING YOU ACTUALLY ADVISE CLIENTS TO LOOK A LITTLE DEEPER INTO? LET'S LOOKING AT THE PORTFOLIOS THAT WE CAN SEE, WE DO THINK THERE MAY BE SOME -- A LOT OF INVESTORS WHO HAVE REALLY BENEFITED FROM THE STRENGTH IN EQUITIES AND MAYBE HAVE NOT REBALANCED INTO FIXED INCOME SO DEFINITELY AS WE ARE LOOKING AT 5% YIELDS AND MORE IF YOU TAKE SOME CREDIT RISK, WE THINK IT'S A GREAT TRADE RELATIVE TO EQUITIES RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED VOLATILITY OF THE TWO ASSET CLASSES AND IT DOES PAY TO HAVE BOTH IN YOUR PORTFOLIO TO GET THE BALANCE INVESTORS SEEK.
8:06ANY WORRIES ABOUT THE FISCAL SITUATION FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF HOW THAT WOULD FEED INTO THE YIELD PICTURE?
8:11IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL REMAIN A SOURCE OF PRESSURE ON LONG-TERM BOND YIELDS IN PARTICULAR. WE ARE SEEING A GLOBALLY AND IT'S GOING TO BE ONE OF THOSE FACTORS THAT IS LIKELY TO KEEP TERM PREMIUM A LITTLE BIT ELEVATED. IT IS SOMETHING WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON AND SOMETHING INVESTORS MAY WANT TO BE AWARE OF. THE LONG-TERM BOND POSITION COULD MEAN ALLOCATION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO.
8:37ALWAYS GREAT TO HAVE YOU.
8:41SHE IS FIXED INCOME CLIENT PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT VANGUARD KICKING US OFF TO THE CLOSE ON THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DAY WHERE WE SEE THE PRESUMPTION IN THE BOND MARKET AND WE ARE GOING TO CATCH UP WITH OUR GUEST AT ROCKEFELLER WHO SAID THE BREAKING POINT FOR THE AI BOOM MIGHT ACTUALLY BE 10 YEAR YIELDS ABOUT 5%. WE ARE THERE.
9:01WE WILL TALK TO HIM IN A SECOND. EMILY: AI IS BECOMING THE NEW PERSONAL SHOPPER WITH MORE CONSUMERS TURNING TO CHATBOTS FOR ADVICE ON WHAT TO BUY. WE WILL TALK TO ADOBE'S DIRECTOR OF DIGITAL INSIGHTS ABOUT WHAT TO EXPECT THIS HOLIDAY SEASON. ROMAINE: MLB PLAYOFFS SET TO KICK OFF. W NBA PLAYOFFS UNDERWAY.
9:20NHL STARTS TOMORROW SO GET YOUR PASSWORDS READY BECAUSE IF YOU WANT TO WATCH ANY OF THOSE GAMES, YOU WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO STREAM IT AND WE WILL CATCH UP LATER WITH SIMON GALLAGHER, FORMER EXECUTIVE AT HULU TO TALK ABOUT THE LANDSCAPE OF SPORTS TRADING. THIS IS THE CLOSE ON BLOOMBERG.
9:42THE NASDAQ 100 TRADING LOWER DESPITE THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF A SECURITY SYSTEM THAT THEY SAY WOULD HAVE PREVENTED THE RECENT BREACH AT HUGGING FACE. THE SEMICONDUCTOR NAME ALSO BOOSTING ITS SHARE BUYBACK PROGRAM BY $150 BILLION AND THIS COMES AS THE TECH SECTOR AWAITS ITS NEXT BIG CATALYST WITH MICRON SET TO REPORT ON WEDNESDAY.
9:48HERE TO HELP IT BREAK IT ALL DOWN IS THE FORMER CHIEF OF STAFF TO SHERYL SANDBERG AT FACEBOOK AND NOW AN OPERATING ADVISOR AT BESSEMER AND CEO OF HER OWN COMPANY FIRST. GREAT TO SEE YOU. LET'S START WITH WHAT NVIDIA IS DOING NOW TO WHAT THEY SAY MAKE A MORE SECURE AI SYSTEM.
10:05WHAT IS YOUR REACTION TO IT? DO YOU THINK IT IS ACTUALLY A POSITIVE STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION?
10:10GREAT TO SEE YOU. THANKS FOR HAVING ME ON. I THINK IT IS A REALLY POSITIVE STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. IN MY VIEW, BUYBACKS DO NOT LIE SO WHAT WE ARE REALLY SEEING TODAY IN THE MARKET I THINK ARE A COUPLE DIFFERENT THINGS.
10:25FIRST, WE ARE SEEING THE EXCHANGES DOWN TODAY AND I THINK THAT IS A MACRO ISSUE WITH OIL, 10 YEAR TREASURIES, AND THEN OF COURSE THE AI NEWS AND WE ARE GETTING INTO THAT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT IS A MODEL ISSUE. NVIDIA IS TAKING ON REALLY SHOWS US THAT THERE NEEDS TO BE A FRAMEWORK. THINKING ABOUT THIS AS AN ENGINEERING PROBLEM FROM VERSUS A LEGISLATION ISSUE.
10:52I THINK THAT APPROACH REALLY MAKING SURE THAT THERE IS THAT CONTROL. THAT AGENTS AREN'T GOING ROGUE IS A GREAT STEP FORWARD IN CONTAINING SOME OF THE ISSUES THAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST YEAR OR SO.
11:07I'M CURIOUS HOW WE ARE GOING TO ACTUALLY STRESS TEST THIS PRODUCT AND UNDERSTAND HOW EFFECTIVE IT IS. IT MAKES YOU WONDER DO WE JUST HAVE TO SEE A LARGER HACK BEFORE ACTUALLY UNDERSTANDING WHETHER OR NOT THIS IS AN EFFECTIVE AGENT.
11:28WHAT IS A LARGER HACK THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. ONE OF THE INTERESTING THINGS I HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT THE NARRATIVE AROUND AI PARTICULARLY THE MAINSTREAM INDIVIDUAL IS HACKERS USING AI TO HACK PEOPLE.
11:44ACTUALLY, WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS THE AI BECOMING THE HACKER AND THEY WERE NOT ASKED TO HACK THESE THINGS, RIGHT?
11:50WHETHER IT'S A GOVERNMENT WEBSITE OR OTHER AGENTS AND MODELS. IT WOULD BE AN INTERESTING THING TO SEE HOW THESE THINGS COULD BE STRESS TESTED AND REALLY, THERE IS NO BETTER WAY TO SAY MY AGENT IS BETTER THAN YOUR AGE AND THEN BY USING YOUR AGENT TO HACK THEIR AGENT. WE SAW A RESEARCHERS DOING THAT AND WE ARE RESEARCHERS DOING THAT WITH CLAUDE AND OPENAI. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE.
12:14IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE KIND OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE AI TRADE AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE PRODUCTS AND SERVICES BEING OFFERED AND I DO JUST WANT TO TAP YOUR BRAIN A LITTLE BIT GIVEN THAT YOU DID WORK AT META. THERE WAS A LOT OF EXCITEMENT AROUND THIS MORE CONSUMER FACING PRODUCT WITH THEIR MUSE AGENT AND THE LITTLE HANDHELD DEVICE TO GO ALONG WITH IT BUT WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS IDEA OF THE HEADLINES FROM TODAY OF GOING BACK INTO THE ENTERPRISE SPACE PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT I THINK THEY SHUT DOWN WORKPLACE JUST A FEW MONTHS PRIOR?
12:48WHAT DO YOU THINK THE ENDGAME IS FROM AI, FROM THE ENTERPRISE PERSPECTIVE?
12:54THE LAST TIME THAT I WAS HERE, WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE STEP INTO AI AND WHETHER THEY COULD REALLY PROVE THAT THOSE BETS WOULD TAKE OFF AND MAN, I THINK THAT WHAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH MUSE AND THAT LAUNCH, THE CONSUMER ADOPTION OF IT PROVES THEY ARE GREAT AT TAKING SOMETHING AND ROLLING IT OUT FOR CONSUMER USAGE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON THE ENTERPRISE. TO YOUR POINT, THEY DID ROLLBACK OTHER ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS BUT I THINK IT IS A
13:20REALLY POSITIVE STEP FORWARD. OBVIOUSLY LAST WEEK, WE SAW A REAL MOVEMENT IN THEIR STOCK AS A RESULT OF IT. OBVIOUSLY TODAY, VERY DIFFERENT REACTION IN THE MARKET BUT EVERYTHING IS DOWN TODAY REALLY EXCEPT FOR NVIDIA AS THE ONE BRIGHT SPOT.
13:35I DON'T THINK TOO MUCH OF THE SINGLE DAY MOVES BUT WHEN IT COMES TO THE LONGER-TERM STRATEGY, WHEN I THINK ABOUT HAVING SORT OF AN ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE, I GUESS AT SOME POINT, IT WILL BE AGENTIC AI BUT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT LONG SALES CYCLES. YOU NEED LARGE TEAMS OF CUSTOMER SUPPORT AND IMPLEMENTATION, SOMETHING THAT I DON'T THINK THEY HAVE IN THAT CAPACITY ALTHOUGH THIS DOES OVERLAY WITH OTHER NEWS THAT WE SAW WITH THE CEO SURPRISING A LOT OF FOLKS AND OUR JUMPING SHIP.
14:08WE DON'T REALLY KNOW ALL THE DETAILS BEHIND THIS AND I GUESS WE COULD SPECULATE THAT HE MIGHT BE A CORE PART OF THIS PUSH.
14:16I THINK THAT IS A GREAT POINT. AND SO REALLY WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT IS META DEPLOYING ITS STRATEGY STEP-BY-STEP. FIRST, THEY HAVE VIEWS ROLLING OUT AND THE REACTION TO THAT HAS BEEN OVERWHELMINGLY POSITIVE. WE WILL REALLY HAVE TO KEEP FOLLOWING KIND OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE ENTERPRISE SIDE BUT YOUR POINT THAT IT GIVES US SOME SORT OF SUGGESTION OF WHERE THINGS MIGHT BE GOING.
14:41ANY THOUGHTS ON WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE CHIP SECTOR GOING FORWARD? I AM THINKING AHEAD TO MICRON EARNINGS THAT WE WILL SEE LATER THIS WEEK.
14:50WHAT DO THESE CHIPMAKERS NEED TO PROVE MOUNT TO WALL STREET AT THIS STAGE IN THE AI CYCLE?
14:55THIS IS WHAT WE ARE ALL GOING TO BE WATCHING PARTICULARLY WITH MICRON. I THINK WHERE WE ARE AT THIS POINT IS THE NEWS WITH NVIDIA TODAY, THAT HISTORIC BUYBACK REALLY SHOWS US THE BUYBACK DOESN'T LIVE. WE NEED TO BE LOOKING AT THESE COMPANIES AND FUNDAMENTALS.
15:14ALL OF THOSE CHIP STOCKS IN THE RED TODAY BUT AS EARNINGS COME UP, WE ARE GOING TO BE PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE PERFORMANCE OF THESE COMPANIES, HOW THEY ARE DOING, AND PRODUCTION OVERALL. ROMAINE: 150 BILLION, I THINK THAT TAKES THE TOTAL ABOUT 200 BILLION. THIS IS A COMPANY THAT HE'S TALKING ABOUT HOW MUCH CASH IT NEEDS TO BUILD OUT. THE AIA SORT OF INFRASTRUCTURE.
15:36GIVE ME A SENSE HERE. IS THAT A GOOD USE OF CASH AT THIS TIME TO RETURN THAT TO SHAREHOLDERS?
15:43WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT THE LONGER-TERM INVESTMENTS YOU ARE TRYING TO MAKE? LIBBY: IT'S A GREAT MOVE AND I THINK HE IS EXACTLY THE RIGHT PERSON TO EXECUTE THIS. THIS IS A CONTINUED BUYBACK THAT THEY HAVE DONE, TAKING THEM OVER 200 BILLION, HISTORIC TODAY. OVERALL, IT'S A GREAT MOVE FOR THEM AND IT REALLY HELPS RESTORE AT LEAST IN THE MARKETS SOME OF THE CONFIDENCE AROUND OUR LONGER-TERM BELIEF IN AI AND WHERE THAT IS GOING.
16:09I THINK THAT WHEN FACED WITH SOME OF THE DOUBT THAT WE ARE SEEING PARTICULARLY WITH SOME OF THE AGENTS GONE ROGUE AND THE NEWS THAT WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS SOME OF THE DIFFERENT MODELS IN THE ANNOUNCEMENTS, YOU KNOW, IT IS A BRIGHT SPOT IN THIS AREA THAT I THINK IS AN OVERALL GOOD THING FOR BOTH THE MARKET AND NVIDIA. ROMAINE: ALWAYS APPRECIATE IT.
16:36FORMER EXECUTIVE AT META. WHEN WE'D COME BACK, WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT SHARES OF NIKE IN THEIR WORST YEAR SINCE 1993. THAT CONVERSATION, UP NEXT, HERE ON THE CLOSE ON BLOOMBERG. ROMAINE: TIME NOW FOR OUR TOP CALLS.
17:07THE BIG MOVERS ON THE BACK OF ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS AND WE START OFF WITH ROBLOX. JEFFREY'S DOWNGRADING TO UNDERPERFORM THE NEW ALGORITHM THAT PRIORITIZES LONG-TERM RETENTION. THAT IS LIKELY GOING TO LIMIT SHORT-TERM USER GROWTH. THOSE SHARES HAVING THEIR WORST DAY SINCE JULY. NEXT UP, SWEET GREEN. WELLS FARGO SIGNING THE CHAINS FASTER THAN EXPECTED RECOVERY FROM THE CYCLOSPORA OUTBREAK. BOOSTING THE PRICE TARGET.
17:27$11 A SHARE. THOSE SHARES UP 2% ON THE DAY AND HAVE NOW RECOUPED ALL OF THE LOSSES THAT BEGAN TO OCCUR SINCE THE OUTBREAK BEGAN. MASTEC, ROYAL CARIBBEAN, DEUTSCHE BANK RAISING ITS RECOMMENDATION TO BUY, SETTING THIS TOP -- THE SELLOFF. THE FIRM ACTUALLY SAID AS WE LIKE THE IDEA AND BELIEVE THE MATH MAKES SENSE.
17:47THE SHARES UP A PERCENT ON THE DAY. THOSE ARE SOME OF OUR TOP CALLS. WE WANT TO STAY IN THE CONSUMER SPACE AND TAKE A LOOK AT NIKE. THE COMPANY SET TO REPORT EARNINGS AFTER THE BELL ON THURSDAY. THE SHARES HAVE BEEN BATTERED ALL YEAR. NIKE SITTING AT A 25 YEAR LOW ACCORDING TO DATA COMPILED BY BLOOMBERG BUT OUR NEXT GUEST STILL UPBEAT, SAYS NIKE HAS A FAIR VALUE ESTIMATE OF ABOUT $94 A SHARE.
18:09THE MORNINGSTAR SENIOR EQUITY ANALYST JOINS US NOW TO TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THIS. LET'S GET RIGHT TO IT HERE.
18:16WHAT IS IT THAT HAS CAUSED INVESTORS SO MUCH AGITA OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS?
18:25IS THIS IDEA THAT WHATEVER TURNOVER, THEY DON'T THINK IT HAS GENERATED ENOUGH TRACTION YET?
18:30THAT IS DEFINITELY THE CASE. IF YOU LOOK BACK AT ABOUT SIX MONTHS OR NINE MONTHS AGO, I THINK THERE WAS A LOT OF OPTIMISM THAT THINGS WERE GETTING BETTER AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AMERICA, THERE WAS SOME DISCUSSION AT THE TIME THAT NIKE INVENTORY WAS BACK TO BEING IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE IN MOST OF THEIR REGIONS. THEY HAD A PROBLEM IN THE GREATER CHINA REGION BUT THE OTHER REGIONS WERE LOOKING BETTER AND PEOPLE ARE NOW REALLY DOUBTING THAT AND THEY
18:58ARE THINKING THAT THEY HAVE MULTIYEAR PROBLEMS IN ALL PARTS OF THE WORLD AND THEY LOST CONFIDENCE IN THIS TURNAROUND. THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF CHANGES AT MANAGEMENT, MUCH MORE THAN PEOPLE EXPECTED. MANAGEMENT CHANGES HAVE GONE ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THAT HAS REDUCED CONFIDENCE THAT HE HAS IT BACK ON TRACK.
19:21WE ARE COMING UP ON THE TWO-YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF HIM TAKING OVER. THEY HAVE EARNINGS THIS WEEK. A BIG INVESTOR DAY COMING IN MID NOVEMBER.
19:29WHAT DO YOU WANT TO HEAR FROM HIM?
19:30WHAT CAN HE SAY THAT YOU THINK WOULD GIVE INVESTORS A LITTLE BIT MORE CONFIDENCE?
19:36THERE ARE A NUMBER OF PROBLEMS. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS PRODUCTS AND MERCHANDISE AND WHAT IS NIKE DOING THAT'S GOING TO MAKE THEM RICH AND OUT AGAINST THE COMPETITION?
19:47THE BIG CONCERN HAS BEEN OTHERS HAVE BEEN SURPASSING NIKE IN TERMS OF INNOVATION WITH BRANDS LIKE -- THAT HAVE HAD STRONG GROWTH WHILE NIKE HAS LANGUISHED. THEY WANT TO SEE NIKE GO BACK TO BEING THE DOMINANT NUMBER ONE SPORTSWEAR BAND.
20:07THAT STARTS WITH COMING UP WITH PRODUCTS THAT MEET THE MARKET AND DRIVE THE MARKET FORWARD AND NIKE HAS BEEN ABLE TO DO THIS OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME AND PEOPLE HAVE LOST CONFIDENCE SO IT'S GOING TO COME DOWN TO THAT AND COME DOWN TO INVENTORY MANAGEMENT. NIKE'S INVENTORY MANAGEMENT HAS BEEN VERY POOR. THE COMPANY HAS HAD ACCESS TO INVENTORY THAT IT TROUBLED TO SELL THROUGH. THAT CONTINUES TO BE A BIG PROBLEM IN CHINA.
20:36THEY NEED TO SELL SOME OF THE OLDER MERCHANDISE AND GET THAT OUT OF THE WAY TO MAKE WAY FOR THE NEWER MERCHANDISE WHICH WILL CREATE A LOT OF INTEREST AMONG CONSUMERS.
20:45ARE THEY GOING TO BE ABLE TO SELL ALL OF THAT MERCHANDISE WHILE TRYING TO COME UP WITH THE NEXT BIG PRODUCT THAT IS GOING TO LET THE COMPANY OUT OF THIS HOLE?
20:53IT SEEMS LIKE A LOT OF DIFFERENT PRIORITIES ALL AT ONCE.
20:57IT'S A MAJOR CHALLENGE ENDED HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR YEARS. IT STARTED BEFORE ELLIOT HILL BECAME CEO TWO YEARS AGO SO IT'S NOT LIKE IT'S A NEW PROCESS. IT IS SOMETHING THAT IS ONGOING AND THE DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE WORLD, NIKE IS IN BETTER SHAPE IN GREATER CHINA HAS BEEN NIKE'S BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR THE LAST FEW YEARS.
21:16THE SALES THE CLAIMS HAVE BEEN THE DOUBLE DIGITS AND THIS WAS FORMERLY A HIGH-GROWTH MARKET AND HIGH OPERATING MARGIN IN THE GROWTH AND OPERATING MARGIN WHICH HAVE FALLEN OFF A CLIFF. IT'S THE NUMBER ONE CONCERN.
21:33IT HAS FRANCHISES IN CHINA AND NIKE LACKS DIRECT CONTROL SO IT'S DEFINITELY TAKEN A LOT OF TIME. ROMAINE: REALLY APPRECIATE IT. DAVID SCHWARTZ, EQUITY ANALYST AT MORNINGSTAR. KEEPING A CLOSER EYE ON THOSE SAILORS -- SHARES, DOWN MORE THAN 10% SINCE THE LAST EARNINGS REPORT, DOWN 40% ON A YEAR-TO-DATE BASIS.
21:58WHEN WE COME BACK, WE ARE GOING TO TURN OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE TREASURY SELLOFF AND WE WILL TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHAT THE SKY HIGH YIELDS MEANS FOR THE REST OF THE MARKET. THE BOAT -- IT COULD SPELL DOOM FOR THE AI BOOM. HE JOINS US AFTER THE BREAK RIGHT HERE ON THE CLOSE RIGHT HERE ON BLOOMBERG.
22:31ROMAINE: 3:30 P.M. IN NEW YORK, THIS IS THE COUNTDOWN TO THE CLOSE. I AM ROMAINE BOSTICK. EMILY: I AM EMILY GRAFFEO. ROMAINE: A LOT OF FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE RESUMPTION OF THE SELLOFF. FOUR STRAIGHT WEEKS NOW WE HAVE SEEN THE 10 YEAR YIELD RISE AND WE ARE STARTING TO -- STARTING THIS FIFTH WEEK ON THE SAME NOTE.
22:48HOW MANY TIMES HAVE WE SEEN THE 10 YEAR YIELD ACTUALLY RISE BY AN EXTREME?
22:56UP 11 BASIS POINTS. THERE'S ONLY BEEN FOUR TIMES THIS YEAR WHERE WE CLOSE 10 BASIS POINTS OR HIGHER.
23:03WE ARE UP SEVEN OR EIGHT. IT GETS TO THIS IDEA THAT WE ARE STARTING TO GET INTO THIS PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY LARGE MOVES IN TREASURIES. QUITE A LOT OF VOLATILITY AND YET WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE EQUITY MARKET, WE HAVE NOT SEEN FOR A VERY LONG -- LARGE STRETCH OF DAYS A BACK TO BACK LOTS OF MORE THAN 1% SO ON THE INDEX LEVEL, STOCKS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY RESILIENT.
23:26THIS RISE IN YIELDS, THERE'S IMPLICATIONS FOR EQUITIES AS WELL. OUR NEXT GUEST WARNS THE 10 YEAR YIELD IS AT 5% AND COULD DERAIL THE AI BOOM. THE CHAIRMAN AT ROCKEFELLER INTERNATIONAL AND HE JOINS US NOW AND HE IS THE FOUNDER AND CIO OVER AT BREAKOUT CAPITAL.
23:42HE WROTE A COLUMN IN THE FT A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO BASICALLY TALKING ABOUT THIS FIVE PERCENT THRESHOLD AS BEING A POTENTIAL DANGER ZONE. I SHOULD POINT OUT AT THE TIME, YOU WROTE YIELDS WERE UNDER 5% AND WE ARE MEANINGFULLY ABOUT THAT RIGHT NOW. WHEN WE START TO TALK ABOUT WHAT FIVE PART 2 -- 5.2 PERCENT MEANS FOR THE AI BOOM, WHAT SPECIFICALLY ARE YOU REFERRING TO?
24:05I THINK THAT WHATEVER YOU'RE TRYING TO SEE THERE IS THAT IF YOU LOOK AT THE LAST 20 YEARS, 5% ACTED AS THE CAP. AS FAR AS THE 10 YEAR IS CONCERNED.
24:16IF YOU ARE MOVING INTO A NEW REGIME WHERE 5% BECOMES A FOUR, LET'S SAY, AND WHATEVER IS THE NEW RANGE, THAT IS A BIG SHIFT WHICH SAYS THAT THE ERA OF HAVING VERY EASY MONEY HAS DECISIVELY ENDED. WE ARE IN A MUCH TOUGHER MONEY KIND OF ENVIRONMENT AND THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR EQUITIES.
24:40FIRST HISTORICALLY, ONCE THE 10 YEAR YIELD CROSSES 5.25%, THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCKS AND BONDS FLIPS TO BECOMING POSITIVE IN A WAY WHICH IS THE FACT THAT BETWEEN BOND YIELDS IN STOCKS, THEN IT GOES NEGATIVE, RIGHT?
24:58EVERY TIME THE BOND YIELDS RISE, STOCKS GO DOWN SO WE IDENTIFIED 5.25 AS THE LEVEL FROM WHICH IT HAD -- IT SEEMS LIKE IT HAPPENED EARLIER THIS TIME WHICH IS THE LAST FEW WEEKS THAT EVERY TIME BOND YIELDS HAS BEEN RISING, IT'S BEEN CAUSING SOME PAIN IN THE STOCK MARKET.
25:14HE SAID THE STOCK MARKET HAS BEEN FAIRLY RESILIENT BUT THAT IS AT THE HEADLINE LEVEL. IF YOU LOOK AT THE DAMAGE, IT'S QUITE SIGNIFICANT BUT COMING BACK TO THE YIELDS POINT SO WHY THE SIGNIFICANCE OF 5%?
25:29HISTORICALLY, JUST GOING BACK MANY DECADES, YOU WILL FIND THAT THE RELATIONSHIP FLIPS, THAT EVERY TIME BOND YIELDS GO UP, STOCKS GO DOWN AND THE MORE YOU GO UP AT FIVE AND A QUARTER PERCENT, THE STRONGER THAT INVERTED RELATIONSHIP SO THAT IS ONE AND THE SECOND IS THE FACT THAT THIS TIME, AND THIS IS THE BIG DIFFERENCE, A LOT OF PEOPLE TELL ME WE SURVIVED 6% INTEREST RATES BACK IN THE 1990'S ON THE 10 YEAR AND THE ECONOMY IS DOING WELL NOW. WHY CAN'T WE SURVIVE NOW?
25:56THE BIG DIFFERENCE NOW IS YOUR DEBT TO GDP WHICH IS THAT YOU GOVERNMENT DEBT TO GDP TODAY IS NEARLY THREE TIMES HIGHER THAN IT WAS BACK IN THE 1990'S. THAT IS A MAJOR DIFFERENCE WHICH MEANS YOUR INTEREST EXPENSES NOW ARE MUCH HIGHER AND A LOT OF THIS DEBT IS SHORT-TERM WHICH MEANS THAT EVERY YEAR, YOU HAVE TO REFINANCE IT AT HIGHER INTEREST RATES VERY QUICKLY SO THE INTEREST GOES UP QUICKLY FROM THESE LEVELS. ROMAINE: YOU GET TO THIS IDEA OF COST TO CAPITAL AND I WAS REALLY
26:25ENAMORED TO A CERTAIN EXTENT BY THE SOFTBANK DEAL FROM LAST WEEK BASICALLY ON THE DOLLAR BONDS OR BASICALLY PAYING 10% WHICH SEEMS ASTONISHING TO ME AND OBVIOUSLY, THAT RAISES THE EXPECTED RETURN THAT YOU NEED TO SEE ON SOME OF THESE DATA CENTER PROJECT TO MAKE THAT 10% MATH WORK. WE ARE SITTING A FLOOR FOR RATES.
26:46IF THE BENCHMARK IS 5% AND WE THINK THAT IS A NEW FLOOR, MOST OF THE DEALS THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ARE NOT LONG-TERM DEALS. WE ARE TALKING A FEW YEARS OUT. THERE IS A FINANCING IS BAKED INTO THAT.
26:57DOES THAT BECOME WHAT KILLS THE BOOM?
27:02HE TALKED ABOUT THIS CAP ON RATES THAT IS SORT OF BEING WHAT HAS KILLED MOST OF THE BOOMS IN THE PAST. >> DATA GOING BACK 300 YIELDS. ALL THE BUBBLES.
27:14WHEN IS SOMETHING A BUBBLE?
27:22WE HAVE TO IDENTIFY USING SOMETHING WHICH WE HAVE SPOKEN ABOUT TO KNOW WHEN WE ARE IN A BUBBLE. OVERLEVERAGED. YOU ALSO HAVE OVERINVESTMENT. EVEN IF YOU HAVE THEM PRESENT, -- YOU COULD CALL SOMETHING EXUBERANT. YOU HAVE THREE MORE YEARS OF CRAZY SPECULATION AFTER THAT. THERE'S ONE SINGLE FACTOR THAT KILLED EVERY SINGLE BOOM OR BUBBLE OVER THE LAST 300 YEARS AND IT'S WHEN YOU GET HIGHER INTEREST RATES. THE RISK GOES UP. SOMETHING COULD GO WRONG.
28:09YOU HAVE SO MUCH DEBT ISSUANCE COMING BECAUSE OF THE AI BOOM.
28:12COMBINE THE AND YOU ARE SETTING THE STAGE UP FOR HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND THAT IS WHY THE HIGHER OIL PRICES HAVE BECOME SUCH A PROBLEM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, A QUESTION I GET IS THAT WHY ARE BOND YIELDS THIS TIME CORRELATED TO HIGHER OIL PRICES? WE HAVE NEVER SEEN SUCH CORRELATION WHICH IS SO HIGH WITH BOND YIELDS AND OIL PRICES ARE HIGHLY CORRELATED AND THAT IS BECAUSE THEY TURN INTO THIS CRISIS, IRAN WERE CRISIS WITH ELEVATED INFLATION AND VERY ELEVATED DEBT AND DEFICIT LEVELS AND ANYTHING ON TOP OF
28:42THAT YOU CAN'T JUST ENDS UP CAUSING MORE PAIN AND DAMAGE TO THE ECONOMY.
28:52THE LONGER INTEREST RATES STAY ABOVE 5%, THE GREATER THE RISK TO THE AI BOOM. THESE THINGS TAKE A WHILE TO HAPPEN. YOU HAVE TO WATCH WILL THE STRESS OF THE GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET START TO TRANSLATE INTO STRESS IN THE CORPORATE DEBT MARKETS AS WELL?
29:11WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO OTHER YIELDS?
29:12YOU HAVE SEEN SOME SIGNS OF THAT BUT IT IS STILL NOT PRESENT. THEY ARE TAKING SOME COMFORT AT THE HEADLINE LEVEL FROM THAT. THIS IS A PRETTY CRAZY STOCK MARKET. IN MY 30 YEARS OF LOOKING AT MARKETS, I HAVE NEVER SEEN WHAT IS HAPPENING JUST NOW. WE VERIFIED IT AS WELL WHICH DEFINES ABOUT HOW THIS MARKET IS.
29:38IF YOU LOOK AT THE S&P 500, 45% OF THE STOCKS ON THE S&P 500 TODAY HAVE A NEGATIVE BETA. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
29:46THE MARKET GOES UP 45% OF THE STOCKS GO DOWN AND THAT -- THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE. HEY, THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT THE ECONOMY. THE INDEX IS NO LONGER THE STOCK MARKET.
30:01THE S&P 500 COME EARLIER, WE SPOKE ABOUT THAT EVEN THOSE CLOSE TO THE ALL-TIME HIGH, YOU HAVE A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF SHARES TODAY WHICH ARE TRADING WELL BELOW THE ALL-TIME HIGHS, SOMETHING WHICH HAS NOT HAPPENED BEFORE, THIS DIVERGENCE WHICH HAPPENED AT VERY IMPORTANT TURNING POINTS.
30:19ROMAINE: 1% AWAY AT THE INDEX LEVEL BUT BELOW THE INDEX LEVEL, IT IS LIKE AT THE MEDIAN STOCK IS ABOUT 16% BELOW. EMILY: THE S&P 500 HAS NOT SUFFERED A DECLINE IN 41 SESSIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. I MEAN, DOES THE BAD BREATH MATTER IF YOU ARE A RETAIL INVESTOR AND YOU JUST BUY AN INDEX FUND? YOU ARE HAPPY LOOKING AT THIS KIND OF EQUITY MARKET DATA. WHY SHOULD THEY -- WHY SHOULD THOSE PEOPLE CARE ABOUT THAT?
30:50WE ARE TRYING TO BE FORWARD-LOOKING HERE. EXACTLY. IT IS SIGNALING THAT GENERALLY WHEN YOU GET SOME BAD BREATH, THE FORWARD RETURNS TEND TO BE POOR. IT MARKETS, THERE IS NO SCIENCE, REMEMBER. IN 2000, SOMETHING SIMILAR HAPPENED AT THE PEAK WHICH IS THE FACT THAT YOU ENDED UP GETTING A LOT OF DAYS OF WHAT IS CALLED BAD BREATH. THE ENTIRE MARKET SORT OF WENT DOWN.
31:15THESE ARE SIGNALS TO WATCH. THERE IS SOMETHING DYSFUNCTIONAL WHICH HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE.
31:23HOW DO YOU HAVE A MARKET WHERE 45% OF THE STOCKS GO DOWN?
31:25WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU ABOUT WHAT SORT OF MARKET WE ARE CURRENTLY IN? THESE ARE SIGNALS TO WATCH. MY POINT IS IF INTEREST RATES KEEP GOING UP AND REMAIN ABOVE 5% FOR ANY DURATION OF TIME, YOU ARE LIKELY TO SEE THAT BEGIN TO BUILD UP IN THE CREDIT MARKETS.
31:42THAT WILL LIKELY PUT A BREAK ON THE MASSIVE SPENDING BENCH WHICH IS HAPPENING WHICH IS BEING FINANCED BY DEBT AND EQUITY ISSUANCE, RIGHT? IF THE CAPITAL MARKETS, AI TODAY IS NO LONGER A TECHNOLOGY STORY. IT IS SOMETHING OF A CAPITAL MARKET STORY.
31:58THEY ARE RELYING ON CAPITAL MARKETS TO BORROW AND FUND AND SPEND. IF THAT BEGINS TO GET AFFECTED BY THE HIGH INTEREST RATES, THAT IS WHEN YOU BEGIN TO SEE THE AI BOOM MOVE INTO RIVERS SO THAT IS WHAT I AM WATCHING FOR. ROMAINE: THE BOND MARKET SEEMS TO BE PUTTING A LOT OF PRESSURE ON THAT.
32:15ALWAYS A GREAT CONVERSATION. CHAIRMAN OVER AT BREAKOUT CAPITAL AND FOUNDER OF BREAKOUT CAPITAL AND CHAIRMAN ROCKEFELLER. WE WILL BE BACK IN A MOMENT WITH A CLOSER LOOK AT SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL MOVERS ON THE DAY INCLUDING BOEING. THE SHARES ON -- THE FAA SAID IT PLANS TO DELAY THE 737 MAX 10 MODEL. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
32:45BOEING SHARES LOWER AFTER THE FAA DELAYS CERTIFYING BOEING'S LARGEST VERSION OF THE 737 MAX JET TO INVESTIGATE A SOFTWARE ISSUE. BLOOMBERG'S NORAH MULINDA JOINS US NOW FOR STOCK OF THE HOUR. GOOD TO SEE YOU. MAYBE THIS IS ME BEING IGNORANT ABOUT PLANS BUT I DON'T THINK ABOUT AVIATION HAVING A SOFTWARE ISSUE. TELL US ABOUT WHAT THIS MEANS AND HOW SERIOUS THIS IS FOR BOEING.
33:11THERE SEEMS TO BE MORE? WHEN IT COMES TO THE SOFTWARE ISSUE THAN THERE ARE ANSWERS. WE ARE SEEING ESSENTIALLY BOEING COMING OUT WITH ITS 737 MAX 10 THAT WE KNOW WAS ACTUALLY GOING TO BE CERTIFICATION WITH THE FAA.
33:22NOW, THIS WAS EXPECTED TO BE CERTIFIED IN A MATTER OF WEEKS POTENTIALLY THIS MONTH OR NEXT BY THEN WE ARE SEEING THAT IT'S RUNNING INTO THIS ISSUE IN REGARDS TO SOFTWARE, SPECIFICALLY A VERTICAL NAVIGATION SYSTEM CONCERN THAT THEY ARE HAVING ISSUES WITH AND THEY ARE THINKING THAT IT COULD BE NOT ONLY AFFECTING THE MAX 10 BUT ALSO THE MAG 7 WHICH WE KNOW WAS JUST APPROVED THROUGH CERTIFICATION AFTER ALMOST A DECADE OF A PUSH THERE JUST ASK -- JUST LAST MONTH.
33:48THERE IS A LOT OF CONCERN WHEN WE THINK ABOUT BOEING AND ESSENTIALLY HOW IT IS ABLE TO REMAIN AND CHALLENGE THIS MARKET THAT IS ALSO DOMINATED BY CERTAIN OTHER PEERS LIKE AIRBUS. ROMAINE: GIVE ME A SENSE OF THE IMPORTANCE OF THE MAX 10. EVERY TIME WE SEE ANY SORT OF POTENTIAL DELAY OR ANY CONCERN ABOUT THE MAX TIME, YOU SEE THIS SORT OF SELLOFF BY INVESTORS.
34:08IS THIS BASICALLY WHAT INVESTORS HAVE ALREADY PRICED INTO THE MARKET WITH REGARDS TO THAT COMING ONLINE AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, THOSE ORDERS FINALLY COMING TO FRUITION?
34:16NORAH: ALL THE ATTENTION RIGHT NOW IT'S ON THE TIMELINE AND WE KNOW THIS IS A REALLY IMPORTANT AIRCRAFT FOR BOEING GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT SAW ABOUT 1500 ORDERS THAT WE WERE SEEING AHEAD OF THIS CERTIFICATION SO THE DEMAND IS THERE AND IT'S ALSO ONE OF THE LARGER JETS WHEN WE LOOK AT THEIR 737 MAX LINE.
34:36AND IT'S ALSO MEANT TO COMPETE WITH THE LIKES OF AIRBUS AND THEY ACTUALLY HAVE THEIR OWN MODEL OF A SIMILAR PLANE.
34:43AND THAT IS ESSENTIALLY DOMINATING THIS MARKET RIGHT NOW. SO IF ESSENTIALLY BOEING IS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS AND THEY ARE NOT ABLE TO ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO TAKE MARKET SHARE IN THIS SPACE, IT KIND OF BEGS THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THEY ARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO COMPETE WITH AIRBUS. ROMAINE: BOEING SHARES DOWN 6%, THE WORST DAY IN ABOUT 11 MONTHS AND NOW DOWN TO A CLOSE LEVELS IN ABOUT 10 MONTHS.
35:07BLOOMBERG MARKETS CORRESPONDENT NORAH MULINDA COUNTING US DOWN TO THE CLOSING BELLS. WHEN WE COME BACK, KATE OF RUSSELL INVESTMENTS. ♪ ROMAINE: JUST ABOUT 10 MINUTES UNTIL WE GET TO THOSE CLOSING BELLS'S WITH ALL THE MAJOR INDICES ON THE BACK FOOT.
35:26OF COURSE A BIG PART IS BETWEEN WHAT WE SEE IN THE THIRD LINE OF YOUR SCREEN THERE AND THAT IS THE RESUMPTION OF THE SELLOFF IN THE TREASURY MARKET. EMILY: THE 10 YEAR YIELD AT A NEARLY TWO DECADE HIGH, 4.2% IS THE LEVEL ON THE 10 YEAR AND IT'S BRINGING DOWN EQUITY MARKETS AT LEAST ON THE INDEX LEVEL. WE HAVE S&P LOWER, TECH STOCKS GETTING HIT. WE HAVE OIL PAIRING A RALLY SLIGHTLY. IT'S HIGHLY ELEVATED.
35:51ROMAINE: AS WE GET READY TO CLOSE DOWN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER, WE HEAD INTO OCTOBER WHICH IS A VOLATILE MONTH FOR STOCKS AND HAPPY TO DEAL WITH A LOT OF ISSUES RIGHT NOW WHICH COULD TEST THE DURABILITY OF THIS RECORD RALLY. KATE JOINS US NOW TO TALK -- TO COUNT OF DOWN TO THE CLOSING BELL. SHE IS PRESIDENT AND CIO OVER AT RUSSELL INVESTMENTS.
36:13GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE. LET'S START OFF WITH THE TREASURY SELLOFF BECAUSE THE ELEVATION IN YIELDS IS HAVING A LOT OF PEOPLE RETHINK VALUATIONS IN THE EQUITY MARKET ITSELF. DO YOU SEE THIS RISING UP AT SOMETHING THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A LITTLE TRANSITORY, SOMETHING THAT IS LINKED TO THE EBBS AND FLOWS OF WHAT IS GOING ON WITH IRAN AND OIL PRICES OR IS THIS MORE STRUCTURAL AND INVESTORS SHOULD JUST PREPARE FOR A HIGHER FLOOR?
36:36KATE: HIGHER FLOOR AND HIGHER RATES FOR LONGER IS WHERE WE SHOULD START TO GET COMFORTABLE. THE FLIPSIDE TO THAT IS WE DO THINK THE MARKET IS PROBABLY PRICING THE HIKING CYCLE A LITTLE MORE HAWKISH LILIA VERSUS WHERE WE THINK THE FED WILL END UP PLAYING OUT. AS LONG AS THE PACE AT WHICH THE BACKUP IN RATES CONTINUES AND THE REASONS FOR IT, DON'T END UP BEING FOR BAD REASONS.
37:02AI SUPPLY, BEING MORE, YOU KNOW, INCREASING THE MARKETS OR THE FED TIGHTENING. ALL OF THAT STUFF IS DIGESTIBLE WITH THE EQUITY MARKETS BUT IF THE PACE PICKS UP IN THE REASONS STAR TO BE MORE AROUND THE ECONOMIC CYCLE, STARTING TO SLOW, THAT WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR US. ROMAINE: LET ME ASK YOU SPECIFICALLY AS A CIO AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THESE ELEVATED YIELDS, DOES THAT SORT OF GIVE YOU SORT OF A LITTLE TINGLE TO SAY MAY BE ADD SOME DURATION HERE AND TAKE
37:28ADVANTAGE OF THIS OR IS IT TOO SOON TO DO THAT? KATE: WE REMOVED SOME OF OUR SLIGHTLY OVERWEIGHT DURATION POSITIONING.
37:38WE THINK IT IS STARTING TO GET ATTRACTIVE BUT WE ARE NOT QUITE THERE YET AND AS YOU LOOK AT DIVIDEND YIELDS, STOCKS, CERTAIN TYPES OF STOCKS THAT MIGHT BE UNDER MORE PRESSURE AS YIELDS START TO BACK OUT, YOU MIGHT START TO SEE AN OPPORTUNITY TO GO INTO DURATION. WE THINK SOME BUT A FIXED INCOME ALLOCATIONS IS WHERE WE WOULD START.
37:58MORE HIGHER QUALITY THAT WE WOULD LEAN TOWARDS PIN ON THE DURATION POINT, PROBABLY MORE FRONT END OF THE CURVE. EMILY: WHEN IT COMES TO JUST CREDIT MARKETS, WE HAVE BEEN DOING A LOT OF REPORTING ABOUT COMPANIES NOT WANTING TO ISSUE LONGER DATED DEBT. INVESTORS ARE REALLY WANTING IT, ARE YOU FINDING THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE SUPPLY OF THE TYPE OF MATURITY THAT YOU WANT RIGHT NOW?
38:25THERE IS CLEAR DEMAND FOR THE BELLY OF THE CURVE A LITTLE FURTHER OUT AND YOU ARE NOT NECESSARILY SEEING THAT IN THE SUPPLY. IT'S EVEN COMING THROUGH IN TERMS OF WHERE PEOPLE ARE TRYING TO ORIGINATE SO I THINK THAT THAT IS THE REALITY. WE CAN ADJUST FOR THAT SO WE FOCUSED ON GETTING THE RIGHT CREDIT AND THE RIGHT SPREAD THAT WE WANT AND THEN WE CAN KIND OF WORK AROUND THE TOTAL PORTFOLIO NEEDED. EMILY: HOW DO YOU HEDGE AGAINST A POTENTIAL RATE MOVES THAT IS EVEN LARGER THAN WHAT WE ARE
38:52SEEING RIGHT NOW? KATE: LARGELY THROUGH DIVERSIFICATION AND SAYING MORE NEUTRAL RELATIVE TO WHATEVER YOUR BENCHMARK IS WOULD BE OUR STARTING POINT. I THINK THERE'S DIFFERENT TYPES OF PORTFOLIOS WHERE IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE BACKUP IN RATES AND DIFFERENT ENTRY POINTS, LAGGING INTO A HIGHER YIELD ISN'T THE WORST THING. IF YOU THINK ABOUT PENSION PORTFOLIOS, THE YIELDS KIND OF BACKUP.
39:25MOST THINGS IN INVESTING, BEING THOUGHTFUL AND DISCIPLINED ABOUT HOW YOU ENTER IN OR OUT OF SOMETHING IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY PARTICULARLY IN THESE MARKETS THAT ARE SO NARRATIVE DRIVEN, PRETTY VOLATILE. ROMAINE: I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT THE EQUITY MARKET RIGHT NOW. WE HAD SOME INTERESTING PULLBACKS, A LOT OF VOLATILITY BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, THE S&P IS STILL WITHIN ARMS REACH OF A RECORD HIGH. THE NASDAQ HIT A RECORD HIGH.
39:53BUT THEN YOU SEE STATISTICS INCLUDING DATA OUT BY GOLDMAN KIND OF SAYING, WELL, THE MEDIAN STOCK IN THE S&P 500 RIGHT NOW IS LIKE 16% BELOW ITS 52 WEEK HIGH WHICH SEEM TO SUGGEST THE INDEX MIGHT BE DOING OK BUT THAT IS JUST ABOUT IT. KATE: WE HAVE BEEN IN THIS RANGE HONESTLY SINCE MAY AND IF YOU LOOK UNDERNEATH THE HOOD, IT HAS BEEN ROTATING TO DIFFERENT PAIN POINTS WITHIN THE MARKET, WHETHER THAT WAS SOFTWARE CHIPS AND YOU GO THROUGH THE CYCLE OF DIFFERENT NAMES WERE GETTING HURT OVER THE PERIOD BUT WE HAVE STAYED IN THE RANGE THAT FELT COMFORTABLE BUT IT
40:23SHOULDN'T. PART OF HOW WE ARE THINKING ABOUT IS BEING DIVERSIFIED, THINKING ABOUT CONCENTRATION RISK IN THE PORTFOLIO, MAKING SURE YOU ARE NOT OVERLY EXPOSED TO CERTAIN THEMES IN THIS MARKET BECAUSE IT IS STILL VERY CONCENTRATED BUT IT IS GOING TO BROADEN OUT AT SOME STAGE.
40:43THAT HOPEFULLY WILL BE THROUGH THE SHIFT FROM THE HYPERSCALERS AND INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPORTING AI TO COMPANIES BEING ABLE TO APPLY THESE TOOLS. ROMAINE: HOW DO YOU EVEN FIND DIVERSIFICATION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT?
41:03WE HAVE NOT GOT TO THE REAL UPSIDE HERE.
41:09WHERE DO YOU GO FOR DIVERSIFICATION?
41:17ARE YOU REALLY DIVERSIFIED?
41:20THE IDEA THAT THE INDEX IS GOING TO GET YOU DIVERSIFICATION IS GETTING MORE AND MORE CHALLENGED AND REALLY THINKING THROUGH AND WE ARE ALL ABOUT PASSIVE AND ACTIVE IN A PORTFOLIO BUT YOU KNOW, BEING MORE SELECTIVE ABOUT HOW YOU ARE ALLOCATING, THAT IS AN ASSET CLASS POINT, PARTICULAR STOCK OR THE CREDITS YOU ARE LOOKING FOR IS MORE IMPORTANT IN THIS MARKET AND THE BENEFIT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DECADES, SO MANY DIFFERENT TYPES OF STRATEGIES AND ASSET CLASSES YOU CAN ALLOCATE TO. YOU CAN THINK THROUGH OTHER MEASURES OF DIVERSIFICATION. CERTAIN HEDGE FUND STRATEGIES
41:50THAT HAD NOT BEEN AS POPULAR FOR A WEALTH FOR VARIOUS REASONS ARE STARTING TO BE MORE ATTRACTIVE SO THERE'S WAYS I CAN TO GET DIVERSIFICATION IN THE PORTFOLIO THAT MIGHT NOT JUST BE ABOUT CORPORATE GROWTH. ROMAINE: I THINK WE HAD TO LEAVE IT THERE. ALWAYS GREAT TO HAVE YOU. PRESIDENT AND CIO OVER AT RUSSELL INVESTMENTS WITH ABOUT THREE MINUTES UNTIL THOSE CLOSING BELLS.
42:15BASICALLY RIGHT AROUND SESSION THOSE FOR MOST OF THE MAJOR INDICES. THIS IS ALL BAKED IN AT LEAST FOR TODAY AND IT WAS INTERESTING. WE WERE TALKING EARLIER AND HE WAS TALKING ABOUT THE CORRELATION BETWEEN WHAT YOU'RE SEEING IN YIELDS AND WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE OIL MARKET. JUST TAKING A LOOK AT BRENT FUTURES, OVERLAYING THAT WITH WHAT WE SAW WITH REGARD TO TREASURY YIELDS, IT WAS BASICALLY 1-1. BACKWARDATION, EMILY. COME ON.
42:47YOU KNOW HOW LONG IT TOOK ME TO FIGURE OUT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BACKWARDATION AND CONTANGO?
42:52I AM GOING TO USE MY KNOWLEDGE AS MUCH AS I CAN GET IT HERE. THE CLOSING BELLS ARE UPON US HERE. RELATIVELY LIGHTWEIGHT WHEN IT COMES TO THE CORPORATE SIDE AND WE ARE GOING TO GET SOME INTERESTING ECONOMIC DATA ON WEDNESDAY AND A JOBS REPORT ON FRIDAY.
43:04A FULL BREAKDOWN OF WHAT IS AHEAD, A FULL BREAKDOWN OF EVERYTHING THAT HAD JUST TRANSPIRED WITH OUR GLOBAL SIMULCAST THAT STARTS RIGHT NOW. >> THE CLOSING BELL, BLOOMBERG COMPREHENSIVE CROSS-PLATFORM COVERAGE OF THE U.S. MARKET CLOSE STARTS RIGHT NOW. ROMAINE: RIGHT NOW, TWO MINUTES AWAY FROM THE END OF THE TRADING DAY.
43:26ROMAINE BOSTICK WITH EMILY GRIFFEY ARE TAKING YOU THROUGH TO THE CLOSING BELL. CAROL MASSAR JOINS US NOW ALONGSIDE TIM STENOVEC. WELCOME TO OUR AUDIENCES ACROSS ALL OF OUR BLOOMBERG PLATFORMS. TELEVISION, RADIO, PARTNERSHIP WITH YOUTUBE WHERE WE ARE LOOKING AT A SELLOFF IN THE EQUITY MARKET AND A SELLOFF IN THE BOND MARKET AS WELL. LET'S JUST FACE IT, THAT HAS BEEN THE THEME AS OF LATE. EMILY: DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN. WE DO GET READS ON INFLATION.
43:57WE WILL SEE WHAT THAT MEANS FOR WHAT WE GET FROM THE FED FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR. WE HAVE TWO MORE MEETINGS I BELIEVE. THE OTHER THING IS YOU HAVE MICRON EARNINGS SO THAT WILL ALSO BE SOMETHING POTENTIALLY VERY IMPORTANT WHEN IT COMES TO SENTIMENT IN SME'S SPACE. ? TIM: THEN WE START TO THINK ABOUT THIS QUARTER AND THAT IS BANK EARNINGS. WE HEAR FROM BANKS AT THE EARLY PART OF OCTOBER, A READ ON NOT JUST HOW COMPANIES DID BUT ON
44:27THE STATE OF THE CONSUMER WHICH IS SOMETHING I LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING IN THE EARLY PART OF THE MONTH. EMILY: AND ALL THAT ECO-DATA BEGS THE QUESTION, IS A STRONGER ECONOMY GOING TO MERIT HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND SOMETHING THAT IS NOT GOOD FOR RISK ASSETS WORLDWIDE? ROMAINE: IT RAISES QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE LINE IN THE SAND IS. INTERESTING TO SEE THE PEOPLE ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION TODAY SAYING 5.2% ON THE 10 YEAR YIELD, YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE A.I.
44:59BOOM NOT TO A HALT BUT SLOW IT. AND ON "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE" THIS MORNING, THINKING TO HIMSELF THIS MIGHT BE PEAKING YIELDS AND TIME TO BUY. NOT ATTEMPT TO BUY IN THE EQUITY MARKET. THE DOW JONES LOSING MORE THAN 300 POINTS. .7%. THE S&P DOWN ABOUT 59 POINTS, .8%. THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE AND 100 EACH LOSING A PERCENT ON THE DAY AND THE RUSSELL 2000 LOWER BY 20 POINTS, OR .7%. CAROL: LET'S GO TO THE S&P 500.
45:37MOST NAMES WERE LOWER IN TODAY'S SESSION, 234 NAMES LOSING GROUND, 165 POSTING HIGHER NUMBERS. FOUR UNCHANGED. EMILY: THERE'S A LOT OF RED ON THE IMAP TODAY. JUST THREE SECTORS IN THE GREEN, CONSUMER STAPLES, HEALTH CARE AND ENERGY. COMMUNICATION SERVICES, CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND FINANCIALS ARE THE BIGGEST LAGGARDS IN THE S&P 500. CAROL: LET'S GET TO THE INDIVIDUAL GAINERS.
46:09I'M GOING TO START WITH NVIDIA. JUST TAKING A LOOK -- IT WAS A TOP GAIN -- IT WASN'T. SORRY. I NEED TO CHECK MY NUMBERS. NVIDIA WAS UP ABOUT 1.6%. IT WAS AS HIGHEST 3.6 PERCENT BUT BY THE SOME OF THAT GAIN. STILL UP 1.7%. INCREASING THE SIZE OF ITS SHARE BUYBACK PLAN BY $150 BILLION.
46:38THE TOTAL REMAINING AUTHORIZED AMOUNT, $235 BILLION -- THAT IS A LOT. COMPLETING THE PROGRAM THROUGH FISCAL 2028, ACCORDING TO A STATEMENT IT PUT OUT. NVIDIA INTRODUCED A NEW A.I. SECURITY SYSTEM TO RUN HARDWARE WHICH THE COMPANY SAID WOULD HAVE PREVENTED THE HUGGING FACE ATTACK. SO, WE ARE FOCUSED ON THIS ONE. STOCK AS OF ABOUT 24% YEAR TO DATE VS. A 76% GAIN IN THE STOCKS FOR COMPARISON.
47:07LET'S GONE OVER TO A NAME THAT WAS NUMBER ONE IN THE S&P 500 AND NASDAQ 100 -- PALO ALTO NETWORKS. FINISHING OFF THE BEST LEVELS OF THE DAY BUT STILL GOOD ENOUGH FOR A GAIN OF 4.6%.
47:22PTI G, RAISING THE FIRMS PRICE TARGET TO 425 FROM 404 A SHARE, KEEPING A BUY RATING. THE VP OF INVESTOR RELATIONS, RECONSTRUCTING THE PRODUCT LEVEL REVENUE BUILD IN ITS MODEL TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE GROWTH POTENTIAL WITHIN THE PALO ALTO PLATFORM. THE FIRM COMING AWAY FROM ITS DISCUSSION WITH CONSTRUCTIVE DATA POINTS ON A COUPLE DIFFERENT THINGS. NONETHELESS WE SAW THIS ON HIGHER.
47:50REAL QUICK KODIAK SCIENCES UP 177% IN TODAY'S SESSION SOARING THE MOST EVER. THIS IS A DRUG DEVELOPER. TWO EXPERIMENTAL DRUGS MET THEIR PRIMARY ENDPOINTS IN A LATE STAGE STUDY FOR AN EYE DISEASE, CERTAINLY OFF AND RUNNING. TIM: I WANT TO START WITH THE SHARES OF MONGO DB. WE LEARNED META PLATFORMS HAS TAPPED THEIR PRESIDENT TO LEADING YOU AI -- LEAD A NEW AI PLATFORM. SHED $6.1 BILLION JUST ON THE NEWS TODAY.
48:28SHARES OF BOEING UNDER PRESSURE TODAY. A NEW SOFTWARE ISSUE. THE FAA DETERMINING WHETHER THE SOFTWARE CONCERN CONSTITUTES A SAFETY OF FLIGHT ISSUE.
48:43SHARES DOWN BY 7% ON THE DAY. FINALLY META, DOWN FROM LAST WEEK ABOUT 8%. JUST IN THE LAST TWO SESSIONS, FRIDAY'S DECLINE AND THIS DECLINE, 8% OF THOSE LAST WEEK AFTER MARK ZUCKERBERG INTRODUCED META ENTERPRISE PLATFORM WHICH WILL FOCUS ON BRINGING THE NEWSAGENT META BUSINESS AGENT AND NEWS API AND CODE FOR BUSINESS AND DEVELOPERS. ROMAINE:
49:13THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HAS RISEN FOR FOUR STRAIGHT WEEKS COMING INTO TODAY AND IT STARTS THE WEEK FIVE LOOKING LIKE IT'S MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION. YIELDS UP ABOUT SEVEN BASIS POINTS ON THE 10 YEAR AND THE TWO YEAR AND FIVE TO SIX ON THE LONGER END OF THE CURVE. AT ONE POINT ON THE DAY THE 10 YEAR YIELD SURGED AS MUCH AS 11 BASIS POINTS -- THE SIXTH TIME THE BENCHMARK HAS RISEN INTRADAY 10 POINTS OR MORE IN A SINGLE SESSION. CAROL: SAFE TO SAY WE ARE JUST TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH HIGHER WE CAN GO.
49:42WE HAVE TO WATCH THE MIDDLE EAST OBVIOUSLY AND ENERGY PRICES. ALL OF OUR GUESTS KEEP MAKING THAT CONNECTION. TIM: THE CHALLENGE THAT IT IS POLITICAL CLOSE TO THE MIDTERMS, PRESIDENT TRUMP AND REPUBLICANS ARE FACING CHALLENGES AS WE GET CLOSER TO MIDTERMS ABOUT THE COST OF LIVING SITUATION IS NOT IMPROVED FOR A LOT OF AMERICANS -- THAT'S HOW THEY PERCEIVE IT. YOU ARE SEEING SOME REPUBLICANS
50:08TURN ON THIS WAR, TOO. CAROL: THAT IS A WRAP FOR ARE CROSS-PLATFORM ON THIS MONDAY. TIM AND I HERE ON "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY" ON BLOOMBERG RADIO. WE WILL SEE YOU AGAIN SAME TIME, SAME PLACE TOMORROW.
50:23ROMAINE: OUR COVERAGE CONTINUES HERE ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION. TALKING ABOUT WHAT WE SAW TODAY IN THE MARKETS WITH YIELDS MOVING HIGHER AS THE BOND MARKET CONTINUES TO SELL OFF, THEN WE CONTINUE TO SEE IN THE EQUITY MARKET, THAT CORRELATION THERE AND THE CORRELATION WE CONTINUE TO SEE WITH YIELDS, STARTING TO BECOME A BIGGER
50:48ISSUE FOR MARKETS. EMILY: WHEN YOU ZOOM OUT, ANYONE WHO IS AN INDEX TRADER OR PILING INTO THE S&P 500, THEY HAVE NOT SEEN A MEANINGFUL MOVE LOWER YET AND HAVE NOT FELT THAT EFFECT FROM HIGHER RATES. BUT IS IT COMING?
51:07ROMAINE: POTENTIALLY. WE WANT TO BRING YOU A RED HEADLINE PARSING THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL RIGHT NOW ON AMD -- WE ARE LEARNING AMD HAS AGREED TO BUY FEI FEI LI'S WORLD LABS AT A PRICE OF ABOUT $8.2 BILLION. SHE OF COURSE IS OFTEN CALLED THE GODMOTHER OF AI. HER FIRM AIMING TO BUILD A.I. MODELS I CAN UNDERSTAND AND REASON ABOUT THE PHYSICAL WORLD.
51:35IN AN EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH THE CEO, LISA SU AND THE CEO OF WORLD LABS, BLOOMBERG'S ED LUDLOW ASK THEM EXACTLY WHY THIS TIE UP MAKES SENSE. TAKE A LISTEN.
51:48TODAY IS A SUPER EXCITING DAY. I CAN TELL YOU WE ARE SUPER EXCITED TO BE ACQUIRING WORLD LABS. I HAVE KNOWN FEI-FEI FOR A LONG TIME AND HAVE TREMENDOUS RESPECT FOR HER AS A RESEARCHER AND VISIONARY. AND IF YOU THINK ABOUT WHERE A.I. IS TODAY, I'VE SAID OFTEN THAT WE ARE STILL IN THE VERY EARLY INNINGS OF A.I. AND I TRULY BELIEVE THAT.
52:10WHAT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE CLEAR IS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HARDWARE, SOFTWARE, THE SYSTEMS AND MODEL LAYER ARE SUCH THAT THE MORE YOU UNDERSTAND END TO END, THE BETTER THE SYSTEM YOU ARE GOING TO BUILD, THAT'S WHY WE ARE ACQUIRING WORLD LABS, REALL,Y TO HAVE ACCESS TO THE WORLD-CLASS TALENT SHE HAS BROUGHT TOGETHER AND BRING IT TOGETHER WITH AMD'S COMPLETE CAPABILITIES AROUND HARDWARE, SOFTWARE AND SYSTEMS AND BUILD THE FUTURE OF A.I.
52:41WE SHOULD GET TO THE BACK STORY WITH BOTH OF YOU, WOULD YOU TALK ABOUT HOW IT CAME ABOUT, THE CAPITALIST, DURING THE ACTUAL TRANSACTION?
52:54I'VE HAD TREMENDOUS RESPECT FOR FEI-FEI, EVERYONE KNOWS HOW MUCH SHE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A.I. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DECADES, WE HAVE ALWAYS HAD BOTH MUTUAL RESPECT AND TRUST.
53:08BUT WHAT WE SAW IS AMD WAS AN EARLY INVESTOR IN WORLD LABS, SO WE SAW HER BUILD WHEN THEY WERE ONLY JUST VERY FEW RESEARCHERS BUILDING TO THE TEAM WITH AMRBLE AND -- MARBLE AND NOW THE RELEASE OF ATLAS. WE SEE A TREMENDOUS NUCLEUS OF CAPABILITY. THAT WOULD BE A HUGE ADDITION TO ALREADY ARE VERY TALENTED AMD WORKFORCE. SO I WAS THRILLED THAT FEI-FEI AND HER FOUNDERS WERE EXCITED ABOUT JOINING AMD.
53:39REFLECT ON THAT, YOU AND I HAVE SPOKEN RECENTLY. THIS, OF COURSE, DID NOT COME UP.
53:46I SUPPOSE A GOOD STARTING POINT OTHER THAN HOW THIS CAME TOGETHER IS, WHAT OPPORTUNITY DID YOU SEE FOR YOUR WORK AND THE TEAM'S WORK TO BE A PART OF AMD?
54:01JUST TO ADD, LISA, THIS RELATIONSHIP HAS BEEN GOING FOR MANY YEARS, IT STARTED WITH MUTUAL RESPECT AND REALLY A GENUINE FRIENDSHIP, AT THE PERSONAL AND PROFESSIONAL LEVEL. WE ARE VERY GRATEFUL WHEN AMD WAS AN EARLY BELIEVER AND SUPPORTER OF WORLD LABS. BUT REALLY WAS MOST FUNDAMENTAL AND IMPORTANT AND EXCITING ABOUT THIS MERGER IS THE SHARED VISION FOR THE FUTURE OF A.I. WORLD LABS HAS BEEN A FRONTIER MODEL BUILDING COMPANY. WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING AS FAST AS
54:34WE CAN TO BUILD THE NEXT GENERATION MULTIMODAL OMNIMODEL FOR SPATIAL AND PHYSICAL INTELLIGENCE AND AS OUR COMPANY GROWS SO DOES OUR AMBITION AND SO DOES THE NEED FOR COMPUTE. IF WE CAN JOIN FORCES WITH AMD, WE REALLY ARE GIVING OURSELVES AND AMD AND THE ECOSYSTEM AN OPPORTUNITY TO ACCELERATE THE SLIDE WILL BETWEEN -- WHEEL WHICH IS CRITICAL FOR TODAY'S AI DEVELOPMENT.
55:05LET'S GET INTO HOW THAT WOULD WORK IN PRACTICE, THIS IS AN $8.2 BILLION ALL STOCK TRANSACTION.
55:14I SEE TWO DISTINCT THINGS AMD IS ACQUIRING, THERE IS THE INSIGHT INTO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODELS AND WHAT THE FUTURE OF A.I. LOOKS LIKE WHICH HELPS INFORM FUTURE GENERATIONS OF HARDWARE, SEPARATE FROM JUST GETTING A GREAT TEAM OF RESEARCHERS WHO CAN ALSO OFFER MODELS, LET'S START WITH THE HARDWARE PIECE -- WHAT WAS YOUR THINKING THERE?
55:35IF YOU TAKE A STEP BACK AND LOOK AT WHAT WE'RE ARE TRYING TO ACHIEVE ACROSS THIS A.I. ECOSYSTEM, IT'S A TREMENDOUS OPPORTUNITY. LOT OF THE FOCUS TODAY HAS BEEN ON LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS, THE MORE TRADITIONAL MODEL LABS, WE HAVE A VERY DEEP AND SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP WITH FOLKS LIKE OP ENAI AND ANTHROPIC AND MED AND THEN YOU HAVE LABS LIKE WORLD LABS PUSHING THE ENVELOPE ON SORT OF THE NEXT BIG THING AROUND WORLD MODELS AND PHYSICAL INTELLIGENCE.
56:06WE THINK THAT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT AS WELL, SO THE FOUNDATIONAL WORK FEI-FEI AND HER TEAM HAVE DONE IN THIS AREA ARE THINGS WE WILL CONTINUE BUT I ALSO SEE IT AS A NUCLEUS FOR THE SIZE AND SCOPE OF OUR MISSION AT AMD, HAVING A WORLD-CLASS RESEARCH TEAM -- HER TEAM WILL BE THE NUCLEUS OF OUR MODELS TEAM -- I THINK IS ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL.
56:33WHEN YOU THINK OF THE INNOVATION TO BE DONE OVER THE NEXT DECADE, WE WANT TO DO IT WITH INNOVATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE STACK. I VIEW THIS AS BOTH A BIG VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FOR THE WORK THAT'S ALREADY BEEN DONE BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANTLY WHAT WE WILL DO TOGETHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE A.I. ECOSYSTEM.
56:56MANY PEOPLE WOULD NOT HAVE SEEN THIS COMING -- I THINK THERE'S A LOT OF VALUE SAYING, WHERE DID WORLD LABS GET TO TO DATE FROM FOUND TO PRESENT-DAY? YOU HAVE BEEN THROUGH YOUR OWN M&A ACTIVITY TO GROW THE TEAM. WHERE DO WE SIT TODAY WITH WORLD LABS, WHAT IS THE SPECIALISM IN THE WORK YOU'RE FOCUSED ON?
57:15WORLD LABS IS A FRONTIER MODEL COMPANY SPECIALIZING IN SPATIAL AND PHYSICAL INTELLIGENCE -- I WAS JUST HERE TALKING ABOUT OUR LATEST MODEL CALLED ATLAS WHICH IS THE FIRST OF ITS KIND MULTI MODEL OMNI MODEL THAT CAN GENERATE BEAUTIFUL PIXELS BUT ALSO HAVE THE INCREDIBLE 3D/4D CONSISTENCY AND ALLOWS CAMERAS AND AGENTS TO INTERACT WITHIN THESE WORLDS. WE WERE FOUNDED IN 2024 SO WE ARE A LITTLE MORE THAN TWO YEARS OLD. THE FOUNDING PRINCIPLE THAT A.I.
57:59IS A'S DIVISION -- IS A CIVILIZATIONAL TECHNOLOGY BEYOND SPATIAL AND PHYSICAL BECAUSE WE ARE SEEING THE NEED FOR HUMAN CREATORS, DESIGNERS, FOR EDUCATIONAL HEALTH CARE BUT ALSO THE EMINENT REVOLUTION OF ROBOTICS. ALL THIS IS THE FOUNDATION OF WORLD MODELS. OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS WE HAVE BUILT MODELS. WE STARTED WITH THE COLONEL -- KERNEL OF DEEP LEARNING. LANGUAGE MODELS.
58:36WE HAVE ALSO RULED OUT -- ROLLED OUT MARBLE AND ATLAS AND WE ALSO EXPANDED OUR TEAM WITH ROBOTICS TALENTS. WE RECENTLY ACQUIRED PHOENIX, BUT TECHNOLOGISTS HAVE BUILT THE FIRST OF ITS KIND ROBOTICS SIMULATION WORKFLOW. AND CUTTING EDGE POLICY TRAINING. -- TRAINING MODELS.
58:53WORLD LABS IS A VERY, STILL A VERY STARTUP SMALL TEAM, VERY AMBITIOUS. WE ARE FOCUSING ON BUILDING THE NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY. ANDAND WE CANNOT BE MORE THRILLED TO JOIN FORCES WITH AMD BECAUSE I REALLY BELIEVE THE FUTURE OF A.I. IS THIS C O-EVOLUTION OF AI
59:21SOFTWARE AND HARDWARE, MODELS WILL GAIN SO MUCH BY USING THE MOST CUTTING EDGE HARDWARE TO ACCELERATE THE TRAINING AND INFERENCE, THE SERVICING BUT IN THE MEANTIME HARDWARE WILL BENEFIT FROM THE INSIGHT AND PEEK INTO THE FUTURE OF THE WORKFLOWS AND NEEDS OF HARDWARE. ROMAINE: AND ANOTHER MARKER OF THE A.I.
59:45BOOM, HER TWO YEAR OLDS WORLD LABS BEING SOLD TO AMD FOR $8.2 BILLION -- $8.2 MILLION. THANKS TO ED LUDLOW FOR CONDUCTING THAT INTERVIEW. WE WILL GET BACK ON TRACK WITH MARKETS. JACK MANLEY WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY'S SELLOFF IN THE 10 YEAR TREASURY COMING UP NEXT YEAR ON BLOOMBERG. ROMAINE: WELCOME BACK TO "THE CLOSE." ANOTHER DAY OF SELLING IN BOTH THE BOND AND EQUITY MARKET.
1:00:24THE S&P DOWN ABOUT .8%. A BIG PART OF THE REASON WAS THE MOVE HIGHER. WE CONTINUE TO SEE TREASURY YIELDS, UP SEVEN BASIS POINTS ON THE 10 YEAR YIELD LARGELY ON THE BACK OF A RENEWED INCREASE IN OIL PRICES HURTING BANK STOCKS A LITTLE BIT AS WELL AS HOMEBUILDERS. HOMEBUILDERS DOWN ABOUT 8% ON THE DAY.
1:00:48AS WE TAKE A LOOK RIGHT NOW AT THE BIG MOVERS WE SAW DURING THE CAP SESSION, BOWING DOWN ABOUT 7% ON THE DELAY OF THE MAX 10. META-PLATFORMS, DOWN ABOUT 5%. AND MONGO DB REALLY TAKING IT HARD HERE, THE CEO, JUMPING SHIP FOR META, AS META STARTS TO BUILD OUT ITS ENTERPRISE A.I.
1:01:15AGENTIC PLATFORM. IN THE AFTER HOURS TRADE, NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOVEMENT IN AMD ON THE BACK OF THE ANNOUNCEMENT IS BY WORLD LIVES FOR 8.2 BILLION DOLLARS. EARNINGS OUT OF JEFFRIES CROSSING THE WIRE AS WELL. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOVEMENT, UP .4%.
1:01:37VAIL RESORTS, BEATING ON BOTH THE TOP AND BOTTOM LINE BUT NO REAL MOVEMENT IN THE SHARES THERE, BASICALLY UNCHANGED AND THE AFTER HOURS STRAIGHT. WE WANT TO GET BACK TO THE TOP STORY, THE BOND MARKET SELLOFF, BUILDING EVER SINCE TRUMP LAUNCHED THE WERE WITH IRAN AT THE END OF FEBRUARY -- WAR WITH IRAN AT THE END OF FEBRUARY. INJECTING A LOT OF RISK INTO THE ECONOMY BY DRIVING UP BORROWING COSTS.
1:02:03THEY TRIED TO EASE THE SELLING BY INCREASING TREASURY BUYBACKS OF LONGER DATED BONDS BUT IT HAS BEEN FOR NAUGHT. 10 YEAR YIELD STARTED THE YEAR AT 4.2% DROPPING TO 3.9% IN FEBRUARY BUT AFTER THE WAR STARTED EIGHT ROWS AND BY MAY IT ADDED MORE THAN 70 BENJAMIN NETANYAHU -- 70 BASIS POINTS TO 4.6%.
1:02:28THEY BROKE OUT AT THE END OF AUGUST AND ARE UP MORE THAN 60 BASIS POINTS SINCE. THIS HAS BEEN ONE OF THE LARGER YIELD INCREASES OF THE PAST DECADE, THE WE SHOULD POINT OUT THAT AN UNPRECEDENTED ONE. WHAT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME IS YIELDS ARE SURGING FROM AN ALREADY HYPO STRESSES WITH THE TO YOUR REPRESSING EVEN FASTER THAN THE LONG AND.
1:02:52A S THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO OCTOBER, WALL STREET IS GRAPPLING WITH THE RISK THAT THE DURABILITY OF THE A.I. TRADE MAY START TO BE A BIT LESS DURABLE. JOINING US IN THE STUDIO IS JACK MANLEY O F J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT.
1:03:08I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THIS INTERPLAY RIGHT NOW BETWEEN THE ELEVATED YIELDS AND THE EQUITY MARKET AND CORPORATE CREDIT MARKETS. HAS THIS BECOME A MATERIAL RISK OR STILL TOO EARLY TO KINDA MAKE THAT CALL?
1:03:22I WOULDN'T CALL IT A MATERIAL RISK, WHEN THE FED RAISED RATES, IT WAS CONFIRMATION OF WHAT A LOT OF US WERE FEARING BUT SOME OF US PERHAPS NAIVELY THOUGHT IT SIMPLY WASN'T GOING TO HAPPEN, UP UNTIL THE DAY THEY DID IT, I KEPT SAYING, THERE'S NO WAY THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN. THERE WAS A TON OF TELEGRAPHING AND FORWARD GUIDANCE.
1:03:43WE KNEW IT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE DATA, THE STRONG ECONOMY, PMI'S, THAT'S GOOD NEWS. OIL PRICES, BAD NEWS. THAT SUGGESTS CUTS WOULD NEVER BE ON THE TABLE FOR 2026. WHEN I THINK HIGHER LEVEL, A BIT LONGER TERM, I STILL THINK OF THE EQUITY MARKET -- THIS ECONOMY SORT OF BY EXTENSION IS NOT IMMUNE TO HIGHER RATES BUT NOT NEARLY AS SENSITIVE TO CHANGES IN INTEREST RATES.
1:04:16ESPECIALLY MODEST ONES LIKE THE ONE WE SAW OUT OF THE FED RECENTLY. WHEN -- WHAT WE HAVE HISTORICALLY SEEN. A LOT OF NOISE RIGHT NOW BUT I'M NOT WORRIED LONGER-TERM. ROMAINE: I WAS GOING BACK, IN THE TIME YOU SEE THESE MOVES, HOW DOES THIS COMPARE TO HISTORY, YOU LOOK AT THE SELLOFF WE HAD IN '94, 2022, 2013, WE ARE NOWHERE NEAR THOSE EXTREMES, NOT EVEN CLOSE.
1:04:43IT GUEST OF THE IDEA OF THE SELLOFF AND WHETHER WE SHOULD READ SOMETHING INTO THAT THAT THIS IS MAY BE A LITTLE BIT LESS ABOUT LONGER TERM STRUCTURAL ISSUES AND MORE ABOUT THE EBBS AND FLOWS OF WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND IRAN AND DO WE GET A SNAPBACK BACK TO WHATEVER THE MEDIAN IS?
1:05:03SINCE THE START OF THE YEAR, IT HAS BEEN SO INCREDIBLY HEADLINE DRIVEN AND WE HAVE PLENTY OF HEADLINES TO CHEW ON FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS BUT GO BACK TO THE BEGINNING OF '26, YOU ARE DEALING WITH A LAUNDRY LIST OF PROBLEMS. THIS EQUITY MARKET HAS GON E BACK TO ACHIEVE ALL-TIME HIGHS AND CLAWED BACK THOSE LOSSES, THIS IS A MARKET THAT IS ALMOST UNIQUELY RESILIENT IN THE FACE OF HEADLINES.
1:05:31TALKING ABOUT A MARKET SO DEEPLY CONCENTRATED -- IN THIS CASE THE CONCENTRATION LIES WITHIN A FEED , A.I., -- A THEME, A.I., THAT THEME IS STILL LARGELY UNPROVEN AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE ABILITY TO MONETIZE AND JUSTIFY THE TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN CAPEX. WHEN MATCHED WITH RICH VALUATIONS, YOU WILL BE VULNERABLE TO SHOCKS. HIGHER RATES ARE WORSE THAN LOWER RATES BUT LONGER-TERM IT IS NOT A STRUCTURAL PROBLEM. ROMAINE: ON THE A.I.
1:06:08TRADE, THERE IS AN UNPROVEN NATURE TO A LOT OF THIS BUT OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE A LOT OF RICH AND POWERFUL PEOPLE THAT HAVE MADE IT CLEAR THEY THINK THIS WILL SUCCEED IN PUTTING A LOT OF MONEY INTO IT. CEO'S OF AMD AND WORLD LABS, FEI-FEI LI IS A LEGEND, HER COMPANY IS TWO YEARS OLD AND SOLD IT FOR 8.2 BILLION DOLLARS -- FOR YOU HAVE TO BE A GENIUS AND TIMING.
1:06:36BUT I GETS TO THIS IDEA THAT LISA SU AND HER BOARD AND HER ACCOUNTANTS AND CFO'S LOOKED AT THIS AND SAID THIS IS A GOOD USE TO PUT INTO THIS, AND SHE'S NOT THE ONLY ONE. WE HAVE SEEN BIG DEALS COMING FROM OTHER COMPANIES AS WELL. OF COURSE FROM PRIVATE INVESTORS.
1:06:52IS THAT A SIGN THAT MAYBE WHETHER YOU LIKE THIS TRADE OR NOT, THAT THE RIGHT SIDE OF THIS IS THAT THIS WILL SOMEHOW DO SOMETHING AND BE SOMEHOW TRANSFORMATIVE TO OUR SOCIETY?
1:07:06DESPITE MY MISGIVINGS OR HESITATION ABOUT THE VIABILITY OF A.I., I T -- IT FEELS LIKE AN EGGS ARE -- EGGS HONORABLE FORCE. -- EXO NERABLE FORCE. MY ROLE IS DEVIL'S ADVOCATE HERE.
1:07:24WE ARE EFFECTIVELY IN WHAT I LIKE TO THINK OF AS A 21ST CENTURY SPACE RACE. AND THAT HAPPENS AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA, NOT THE U.S. IS HARDLY BACK IN THE 60'S BUT THE U.S. AND CHINA -- TWO GREAT POWERS VYING FOR SUPREMACY IN NEW TECHNOLOGY. A WINNER TAKE ALL SITUATION. WITHIN THE UNITED STATES, THESE DIFFERENT COMPANIES PROVIDING DIFFERENT COMPONENTS OF THE A.I.
1:07:54VALUE CHAIN, MANY LIKELY REALIZING THERE IS NO ROOM FOR ALL OF THEM. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT HOW THIS TECHNOLOGY HAS OF GETTING ADOPTED, IT'S NOT LIKE SIX LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS WILL EXIST FOREVER.
1:08:06WHAT DO YOU NEED SIX FOR, YOU PROBABLY NEED ONE OR TWO TO DO EVERYTHING YOU NEED. DURING THIS INTERESTING POSITION WHERE IF YOU SLOW DOWN, YOU DIE, IT'S THE WAY IT WORKS -- -- IT IS AN EXISTENTIAL CRISIS. THE SPACE RACE REALLY HOLDS TRUE. WE PUT A MAN ON THE MOON.
1:08:24IT WAS A REAL THING. BUT THERE WERE NO QUALMS ABOUT SPENDING WHATEVER IT TOOK. IT DIDN'T MATTER HOW YOU GOT THERE. AND MAY BE ONE WAY TO INTERPRET SOME OF THIS NEWS IS TO THINK OF IT THROUGH THAT LENS.
1:08:39ROMAINE: I WANT TO ASK YOU TO PICK THE WINNERS AND LOSERS BUT THINK ABOUT THIS IDEA THAT FOR A FEW YEARS NVIDIA WAS KIND OF THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IF YOU WANTED A PUBLIC MARKET BET AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT NOW IN THE RECENT DAYS , HAVE SHOWN SOME PROGRESS AND I GUESS AT SOME POINT, ANTHROPIC AND OPEN AI WILL COME TO MARKET AND PEOPLE WILL PILE IN THAT AT SOME POINT.
1:09:02WHO KNOWS WITH THE WINNERS AND LOSERS WILL BE BUT DO YOU SEE ALLOCATION OF MONEY RIGHT NOW? DO YOU THINK IS BEING DONE IN A RESPONSIBLE WAY?
1:09:13RESPONSIBLE IS HARD FOR ME TO JUDGE BUT IS BEING DONE IN A REASONABLE WAY. I LIKE THAT ONE OF THE BIG STORIES THIS YEAR HAS BEEN A BROADENING OUT OF EARNINGS WITHIN THE INDEX AND BY EXTENSION A BROADENING OUT OF PARTICIPATION WITHIN THE INDEX. NOT JUST ONE PARTICULAR SEMI CONDUCTOR MANY FIVE ARE AND A HANDFUL OF HYPERSCALERS AND LARGE LANGUAGE MODEL BUILDERS, THE ECOSYSTEM HAS PROVEN ITSELF TO BE MUCH BIG.
1:09:43-- MUCH BIGGER. WHEN I THINK ABOUT AI INVESTING, I THINK ABOUT IT IN A FEW DIFFERENT WAYS, A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE, YOU HAVE THE LANGUAGE LABS AND THE SOFTWARE THAT HELPS US SUPPORT THOSE LABS, YOU HAVE THE HARDWARE THAT HELPS SUPPORT THE SOFTWARE, SOLICITING DATA CENTERS AND ALL THE STUFF THAT GOES INTO BUILDING THEM, THE FINANCING NEEDS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE THINGS AND
1:10:10AT MATERIAL IN THE MOST BORING PART, THE AVERAGE AMERICAN COMPANY THAT BECOMES INCREMENTALLY MORE PROFITABLE BUT YOU WILL SEE IT ALL OVER THE PLACE.
1:10:21THE LAST SHOE TO DROP HAS NOT DROPPED YET, WE ARE STILL WAITING ON THAT BUT ALMOST EVERY OTHER COMPONENT WE HAVE SEEN THE BENEFITS ALREADY FLOW THROUGH OF ALL THIS MONEY AND INVESTORS HAVE CAPITALIZED ON IT. ROMAINE: FOR A CONVERSATION, JACK MANLEY. WITH A CLOSER LOOK AT THE DATE'S TRADE AND THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR AI. WE WILL GIVE YOU THE OUTLOOK FOR THE -- FOR THIS HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON WITH THE ADOBE INSIGHTS DIRECTOR AFTER THE BREAK.
1:10:53WE ARE CALLING THIS THE AI HUNTER SHOPPING SEASON, THE FIRST SEASON WHERE A.I. IS REALLY IN THE MAKES FOR BRANDS AND RETAILERS. AND THE CONSCIOUSNESS AND THAT CONCERN AND THE LUMPY CHART THAT YOU JUST SHOWED REALLY SHOWS THE POWER OF WHAT A.I.
1:11:05WILL BE ABLE TO DO TO HELP CONSUMERS ACROSS DEMOGRAPHICS BOTH LOW, MIDDLE AND HIGH REALLY FIND THOSE BARGAINS THIS YEAR. ROMAINE: WE SPOKE WITH HER ABOUT THE GROWING IMPACT THE AI WILL HAVE ON THIS SHOPPING SEASON AND NOW ADOBE IS OUT WITH DATA OF ITS OWN. THEIR DIGITAL INSIGHTS TEAM BACKING THAT UP WITH THE LATEST HOLIDAY SHOPPING FORECASTS SHOWING AI DRIVEN TRAFFIC IS EXPECTED TO GROW 130% FROM A YEAR AGO.
1:11:38THE DIRECTOR OF ADOBE DIGITAL INSIGHTS JOINS US NOW TO TALK MORE ABOUT THIS. VIVEK, SOME OF THESE NUMBERS ARE PRETTY BIG, SOMETHING LIKE $275 BILLION EXPECTED FROM NOVEMBER, THE START OF NOVEMBER THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR, UP 6.7%. GIVE ME A SENSE OF WHAT IS DRIVING THAT. VIVEK: WE'VE GOT A NUMBER OF DRIVERS FUELING THAT GROWTH.
1:12:05ONE KEY DRIVER IS ONLINE IS MAKING UP A LARGER SHARE OF OVERALL RETAIL SPENDING -- ONE OUT OF EVERY FOUR DOLLARS WILL BE SPENT ONLINE. THE OTHER KEY PIECE HERE IS YOU HAVE CONSUMERS WHO ARE VERY MUCH LOOKING FORWARDS -- LOOKING FORWARD TO THESE SALES PROMOTIONS AND WE HAVE SEEN THEM BE REACTIVE AND SENSITIVE TO THE DEALS AND DRIVING THESE SALES PROMOTIONS PRETTY HIGH. WE HAD THE PRIME EVENT OVER THE SUMMER, MOMENTS LIKE BLACK FRIDAY HIT $13 BILLION.
1:12:34START OF MONDAY $15 BILLION. INDICATIVE OF THE REACTIVE NETS ON THE PART OF CONSUMERS TO THESE PRICING OPPORTUNITIES AND ALSO WILLINGNESS TO SPEND ON EVERYDAY LUXURY, SO IT IS A LOT OF COMPONENTS THERE INFORMING THAT GROWTH. ROMAINE: TALK TO ME ABOUT WHAT THEY ARE ACTUALLY SPENDING ON BECAUSE SOME OF YOUR DATA SEEMS TO SUGGEST PEOPLE ARE PLANNING TO
1:13:01SPEND BUT IT MAY GO TOWARD HOUSEHOLD ITEMS OR THINGS THAT ARE NOT NECESSARILY GIFTS OR LUXURIES THEMSELVES, WHAT IS THE BREAKDOWN? VIVEK: WHEN WE THINK ABOUT ONE HOLIDAY SALES EVENTS HAVE TYPICALLY BEEN, THEY HAVE BEEN VIEWED THROUGH THE LENS OF THESE SORT OF BIG-SCREEN TELEVISIONS AND GIFT GIVING, JEWELRY. PEOPLE WILL BE SPENDING ON THOSE TYPES OF ITEMS -- WE ARE EXPECTING APPAREL TO DRIVE A
1:13:28LOT OF SPEND, AND ELECTRONICS, WITH NEW RELEASES LIKE THE IPHONE DUO AND GTA 6 VIDEO GAME, THAT WILL DRIVE CONSOLE SALES AND THINGS LIKE THAT WILL PROPEL GROWTH BUT WE ARE ALSO FINDING THIS DESIRE ON THE PART OF THE CONSUMER TO MAKE SURE THEY CAN STOCK UP ON EVERYDAY ITEMS. LIKE VACUUM CLEANERS OR APPLIANCES -- HOUSING SUPPLIES, HOUSE CLEANING SUPPLIES, THAT
1:13:56IS VERY TOP OF MIND AS THEY ARE MANAGING THE COST OF LIVING AND MANAGING VOLATILE PRICES IN DIFFERENT SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY SO THAT IS REALLY WHAT'S GETTING US TO THAT SPEND NUMBER. WE WILL SEE A SHIFT BASED ON THE MOMENT. WE WILL HAVE THE PRIME EVENT IN OCTOBER AND THE THANKSGIVING WEEK SALES.
1:14:18THE MIX OF THOSE CATEGORIES WILL ADJUST BASED ON WHERE THE CONSUMERS ARE ON THOSE DAYS. ROMAINE: IT'S ONE THING TO SAY PEOPLE ARE SPENDING ON NECESSITIES, IT BLUNTS IT A LITTLE BIT -- THE NUMBERS YOU HAVE FOR OCTOBER ARE ALSO PRETTY HIGH.
1:14:4095, 96 BILLION DOLLARS FOR OCTOBER, THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY JUST FROM AMAZON. DOES THAT CANNIBALIZE IF PEOPLE ARE SPENDING THAT MUCH IN OCTOBER -- WHAT THEY MIGHT BE SPENDING IN NOVEMBER AROUND THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKS THAT FOLLOWED? VIVEK: WE ARE SEEING FROM THE DATA THAT YOU HAVE CONSUMERS LOOKING AT THE OVERALL SEASON AND SEEING OPPORTUNITIES TO DO EARLY SHOPPING AND SPENDING ON SOMETHING LIKE THE PRIME EVENT PERIOD, THEY PULL BACK A LITTLE
1:15:07BIT AND SEE WHERE THE DISCOUNTS MOVE AND THEY STILL HAVE THE PERCEPTION AND EXPECTATION THEY WILL GET THE BEST ABSOLUTE PRICES ON THESE DAYS DURING THANKSGIVING WEEK. THAT IS WHEN WE WILL SEE AN ACCELERATION OF SPENDING AND THE DISCOUNTS GET DEEPER AND STRONGER -- 30% IN SOME CASES. CONSUMERS WILL LOCK IN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE DEALS.
1:15:33YOU GET THE SENSE FROM THE DATA AND WHEN WE SURVEY THE CONSUMERS THAT THEY DON'T WANT TO LEAVE ANY VALUE ON THE TABLE.
1:15:42THEY WANT TO BE STRATEGIC OF GETTING WHAT THEY NEED WHEN THEY NEEDED THROUGH THE SEASON SO THEY ARE MANAGING BOTH THOSE THINGS. ROMAINE: DO YOU HAVE ANY INSIGHT INTO THE BASELINE -- ARE SELLING PRICES BELOW LAST YEAR OR ARE RETAILERS KIND OF STARTING FROM A HIGHER REFERENCE POINT, SO MAYBE DISCOUNTS, THAT IS GOOD FOR THEM BUT FOR THE REST OF US WE ARE NOT GETTING AS MUCH OF THE FULL 30%? VIVEK:
1:16:09WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW, WE SEE PRICES COMPARABLE TO WHERE WE WERE LAST YEAR, PRICES TICKED UP A LITTLE BIT EARLIER ON IN THE YEAR COMING OFF LAST YEAR'S HOLIDAY SEASON AND IN THE SUMMER AND THEN WE SAW PROMOTIONS, SALES DEALS THROUGH THE SUMMER THAT HELPED MODERATE SOME OF THAT AND NOW IT IS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH LAST YEAR, YOU HAVE TO THINK OF IT. IN THE ONLINE RETAIL SPACE,
1:16:36THERE ARE A LOT OF PLAYERS VYING FOR CONSUMERS' DOLLARS, SO THE DESIRE TO DRIVE VALUE FOR THE CONSUMER AND HAVE THEM ENTER INTO THEIR ECOSYSTEM VS. SOMEONE ELSE ALSO IS DRIVING THE PRICING STRATEGY. WHAT THEY WILL LOOK TO DO IS SEE HOW MUCH THEY CAN GET IN TERMS OF PEAK SEASON PURCHASING AN OFF-SEASON PURCHASING.
1:16:58ROMAINE: I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT THE IMPACT OF A.I., A COMMENT FROM ACCENTURE, GETTING AT THIS IDEA THAT A.I.’'S HAVING A BIGGER ROLE IN THE PURCHASE EXPERIENCE.
1:17:11WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THE SALES ORIGINATE FROM AI POWERED CHATS AND OTHER THINGS LIKE THAT, IS THERE A WAY TO QUANTIFY MAY BE HOW MUCH IT WILL ACTUALLY DRIVE NEW SALES -- THOSE SALES? VIVEK: WE ARE SEEING A PROFOUND IMPACT OF HOW CONSUMERS' JOURNEYS ARE DEVELOPING, 55 TO 60 PERCENT OF CONSUMERS ARE USING AI THROUGH SOME PART OF THEIR SHOPPING JOURNEY, FOR IDEA TION AND RESEARCH, KIND OF COMPARING
1:17:40PRODUCTS. THAT IS INFLUENCING A LOT OF CONSUMERS. THERE IS A LOT THEY ARE HAVING TO DEAL WITH DAY IN AND DAY OUT SO HAVING AN A.I. AGENT TO TAKE INFORMATION FROM SITES AND GIVE THEM A STRONG OPTION IS ESSENTIALLY PREQUALIFYING THEM BECAUSE WE ARE ABLE TO LOOK AT CONVERSION RATES AND THAT IS OVER PERFORMING SOURCES BY OVER -- AND ON AI SOURCES BY OVER 43%. THAT HELPS PRODUCE IS A NATURAL TAILWIND TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING.
1:18:22ROMAINE: THE DIRECTOR OF ADOBE DIGITAL INSIGHTS WITH A CLOSER LOOK HERE AT WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON. WE WANT TO TAKE A QUICK CHECK OF THE MARKETS ONCE AGAIN, WE WERE DOWN ON THE DATE ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MOST OF THE MAJOR INDICES. ON A WHOLE LOT OF MOVEMENT IN THE AFTER HOURS STRAIGHT.
1:18:45MOST OF THE NUMBERS SHOULD HOLD BARRING A MAJOR EVENT -- SHOULD HOLD INTO THE OPEN TOMORROW MORNING, TODAY'S ACTION IS ALL DRIVEN BY THE INCREASE IN OIL PRICES AND YIELDS AND THAT PROMISES TO BE A SIMILAR STORY TOMORROW DEPENDING ON WHICH DIRECTION THEY GO. THIS IS "THE CLOSE" ON BLOOMBERG. ♪
1:19:12ROMAINE: A BIG TIME -- A GREAT TIME TO BE A SPORTS FAN. THE NFL ALREADY UNDERWAY, THE WNBA PLAYOFFS, THE MLB POSTSEASON KICKS OFF TOMORROW, AS DOES THE NHL REGULAR SEASON. BLOOMBERG'S VANESSA PERDOMO JOINS US TO GIVE US A RUNDOWN OF WHAT TO WATCH. THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BE A SPORTS FAN -- YOU'VE GOT COLLEGE SPORTS UNDERWAY AND THE NBA ITSELF KICKING OFF IN ABOUT A MONTH IN OCTOBER.
1:19:42NBA'S UNDERWAY NOW. IT'S GROWN IN STATURE IN A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF WAY. THESE PLAYOFFS AT THE START ARE DELIVERING ON THAT EXCITEMENT.
1:19:51PROBABLY THE MOST EXCITING FIRST RUN OF THE PLAYOFFS THE WNBA COULD HAVE. IS THAT A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING FOR BUSINESS? YOU HAVE CAITLIN CLARK AND ASIA WILSON GOING AGAINST EACH OTHER IN THE FIRST ROUND SO IT IS -- AJA WILSON GOING AGAINST EACH OTHER IN THE FIRST ROUND SO IT IS C HAMPS. CAITLIN CLARK WILL PROBABLY GO OUT IN THE FIRST ROUND BECAUSE THEY ARE DOWN 1-0 IN THE SERIES
1:20:20AND YOU HAVE A REMATCH OF THE 2020 FOUR CHAMPIONSHIP WITH THE LIBERTY VERSUS THE LINKS, COMING BACK WITH NEW YORK 1-0 IN THAT. ROMAINE: WE HAD A COUPLE OF INTERESTING WEEKS IN THE NFL, WAY TOO EARLY TO START TALKING ABOUT WHO MAKES IT TO THE PROMISED LAND IN FEBRUARY, BUT RANK SO FAR THE COMPETITION WE HAVE SEEN THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE WEEKS OF THE SEASON. VANESSA:
1:20:45IT'S BEEN A GREAT NFL SEASON SO FAR, THIS WEEK PARTICULARLY -- JUST YESTERDAY, INCREDIBLE GAMES THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SEPARATED BY ONLY ONE SCORE. THEY WERE COMING DOWN TO THE WIRE. IN RIO, THE NFL PLAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN RIO DE JANEIRO. IT CAME DOWN TO THE LAST SECOND. IT WAS ACTUALLY THE LATEST SCORE THE RAVENS EVER HAVE.
1:21:13THAT WAS EXACTLY WHAT THE NFL WANTS, AND INTERNATIONAL GAME THAT IT WILL -- THAT WILL KEEP THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET AS ENGAGED AS THEY WOULD HEAR. ROMAINE: I DO HAVE TO TALK ABOUT THE MLB PLAYOFFS, THERE'S A LOT OF A LOT OF SMALL-MARKET TEAMS AS WELL, WHAT IS VIEWERSHIP -- WHAT DOES VIEWERSHIP LOOK LIKE IN THE LATER ROUNDS OR POTENTIALLY EVEN TO THE WORLD SERIES ITSELF? VANESSA: IT DEPENDS ON WHO THE SMALL-MARKET TEAMS ARE AND HOW LONG IT'S BEEN SINCE THEY WON A CHAMPIONSHIP.
1:21:47REALLY THE STORY IS WHO THEY ARE GOING AGAINST -- OBVIOUSLY THE BEST THING FOR THE MLB IS THINK AND DODGERS IN THE WORLD SERIES. IT'S NOT THE BEST THING FOR SOME PEOPLE THAT THEY WANT TO WATCH BUT IT IS OBVIOUSLY THE BEST THING FOR THE MLB. YOU HAVE LAST YEAR WITH TORONTO COMING OUT WITH AN AMAZING SERIES AGAINST THE DODGERS SO WE WILL SEE. THE GUARDIANS ARE ONE OF THOSE TEAMS THAT MAKE IT TO THE POSTSEASON CONTINUOUSLY WITH A
1:22:12SMALL PAYROLL. ROMAINE: VANESSA PERDOMO, LEADING OUR COVERAGE HERE -- SPORTS COVERAGE HERE ON BLOOMBERG. SPEAKING OF TWO GIANTS, THEY THINK IS AN RED SOX RESUME THEIR RIVALRY, STREAMING EXCESSIVELY ON PICKUP FOR THE FIRST TIME. PART OF THE NEW THREE YEAR MEDIA RIGHTS AGREEMENT WITH NBC, NETFLIX AND THE SPN.
1:22:36IT RAISES A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW EXACTLY WE WATCHED WAS AND WHAT THE STREAMING SERVICES WILL BE IN THAT PROCESS. JOINING US IS SIMON GALLAGHER, FORMER EXECUTIVE AT HULU AND NETFLIX TO TALK MORE ABOUT THAT.
1:22:55THIS I S A PRETTY BIG DEAL FOR NBC GETTING THE RIGHTS BACK BUT ALSO THE IDEA OF HOW YOU PARSE IT OUT BETWEEN THE OVER THE AIR BROADCAST NETWORK AND STREAMING PLATFORMS A LOT OF US GRAVITATED TO DEFINE THESE GAMES -- TO FIND THESE GAMES.
1:23:13THE PROBLEM IS IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE WHERE THE GAME IS I WANT TO WATCH. WHERE DOES THE AUDIENCE GO TO FIND THE PARTICULAR GAME THEY WANT TO WATCH?
1:23:23IT IS A GOOD DEAL. IT BRINGS IT BACK TO TELEVISION IN TERMS OF NBC AND THE OPTION ON PICKUP AS WELL BUT IT DILUTES HOW MANY GAMES ARE ON EACH OF THE DIFFERENT -- ACROSS MANY DIFFERENT PLATFORMS AND MAKES IT DIFFICULT FOR THE CONSUMER. ROMAINE: I HAVE BEEN VERY FRUSTRATED BY THIS NOT ONLY WITH MLB BUT THE
1:23:48NBA -- TO PUT A FINER POINT ON IT, NBC, ESPN, NETFLIX, FOX, AT&T -- TNT RETAIN THE POSTSEASON PACKAGES AS WELL. HAVE WE SEEN EVIDENCE OVERALL VIEWERSHIP AND ENGAGEMENT WITH THESE LEAGUES IS BEING HURT BECAUSE OF THE FRAGMENTATION ACROSS DIFFERENT PLATFORMS? SIMON: NOT NECESSARILY. YOU ARE SEEING SOME ENGAGEMENT.
1:24:16THE BEST VIEWING FIGURES FOR A YOUNGER AUDIENCE FOR OPENING DAY IN MLB IN EVERY DECADE. SO SOME OF THE NEW PLATFORMS ARE HELPING SPORTS, PARTICULARLY MLB WITH AN AGING FAN BASE, TO ENGAGE YOUNGER VIEWERS. SO YOU WOULD -- IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THEY ARE NOT LOSING VIEWERS AND THEY HAVE GREAT TICKET SALES AT THE STADIUM'S AS WELL. SO THEY SEEM TO BE DOING A GOOD THING IN TERMS OF REINVIGORATING THE FAN BASE AS
1:24:45FAR AS MLB GOES. ROMAINE: WE SHOULD POINT OUT NHL IS ALSO IN A SIMILAR STORY, OBVIOUSLY ESPN AND DISNEY I SHOULD SAY OVERALL -- ACROSS ESPN, ABC, DISNEY PLUS, HULU, AGAIN TNT ALSO IN THE MIX, HBO MAX IN IN NATIONAL PACKAGES. I AM CURIOUS ABOUT THE COST OF THESE GAMES FOR THE STREAMING SERVICES THEMSELVES.
1:25:09AND WHEN THEY WALK INTO A BOARD ROOM AND START TO SORT OF ASSESS WHETHER THEY WANT IN ON THIS, IS THIS SORT OF GOT THE RIGHTS TO THIS AT ANY COST BECAUSE THIS IS BASICALLY THE ONLY THING RIGHT NOW WHERE WE HAVE GUARANTEED EYEBALLS AND ADD SALES OR CAN YOU BE A BIT MORE JUDICIOUS IN DETERMINING WHETHER YOU WANT TO ENTER SOME OF THESE AGREEMENTS? SIMON: IN SOME WAYS, THE FACT THAT THESE RIGHTS ARE BEING DILUTED ACROSS MULTIPLE PLATFORMS HAVE MADE THEM MORE ACCESSIBLE. NETFLIX HAS GOT AN OPPORTUNITY
1:25:39TO DIP THEIR TOE IN THE WATER WITH THINGS LIKE THE OPENING NIGHT AND THE HOME RUN DERBY AND ONLY PAY $50 MILLION A YEAR. SO THAT IS ROUGHLY WHAT THEY MIGHT PAY FOR A BEN AFFLECK MOVIE, FOR EXAMPLE. MAYBE EVEN LESS. THAT'S A GREAT WAY TO DETERMINE, IS BASEBALL RIGHT FOR US AND OF THE AUDIENCE ENGAGE WITH IT ON THE NETFLIX PLATFORM? WE HAVE SEEN THEY ACTUALLY DO.
1:26:04IF YOU GO TO NETFLIX A CERTAIN NIGHT OF THE WEEK AND YOU SEE THERE'S A LIVE BASEBALL GAME, THAT TENDS TO HAVE A GREATER LEVEL OF ENGAGEMENT THAN FOR SOME POST-PRODUCED CONTENT AND SOME FILMS, SOME REALITY AND THOSE SORTS OF THINGS WHICH IS NO SURPRISE. ROMAINE: THAT DOES RAISE A QUESTION, THINKING OF NETFLIX'S STRATEGY, NEEDING A SEASON-LONG SPORTS RIGHTS, IF YOU CAN SORT OF NAB A COUPLE OF THE MARQUEE GAMES, LIKE THE ALL-STAR GAME, IS THAT
1:26:33ENOUGH TO BRING PEOPLE TO YOUR PLATFORM AND KEEP THEM ON YOUR PLATFORM? SIMON: DIFFERENT PLATFORMS, DOES IT WORK FOR NETFLIX? ABSOLUTELY. THEY WANT THAT ONE OFF TYPE SPECIAL PROGRAMMING LIKE WE SAW WITH THE NFL AND THE GAME IN AUSTRALIA, THAT WAS A UNIQUE TYPE OF EVENT. THEY DON'T WANT TO OVERPAY TO GET A HUGE VOLUME OF GAMES THAT THEY NEED TO POPULATE IN THE PLATFORM WITH.
1:27:03THAT'S A DIFFERENT PROPOSITION FOR A NETWORK LIKE NBC OR FOX, THEY NEED TO HAVE THE NETWORK FILLED UP AND THEY NEED TO HAVE THAT DRIVER ON A WEEKLY AND DAILY BASIS.
1:27:15SO, YEAH, DIFFERENT DRIVERS FOR DIFFERENT PLATFORMS. ROMAINE: IS THERE SORT OF A DIFFERENCE, TOO, WHEN WE TALK ABOUT LEAGUES, YOU HAVE THE NFL, WHERE GAMES ARE NATIONAL EVENTS NO MATTER WHO IS PLAYING TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, AND IS MUCH DIFFERENT. A HOCKEY FAN WILL WATCH THEIR TEAM -- NHL IS MUCH DIFFERENT. A HOCKEY FAN WILL WASH THEIR TEAM. THAT CHANGES IN THE PLAYOFFS.
1:27:37WITH SPORTS WITH A REGIONAL FIELD TO THEM, DO THESE CONTRACTS AND RIGHTS CONTRACTS WITH STREAMING SERVICES STILL MAKE SENSE? SIMON: ABSOLUTELY. IT WILL MAKE MORE SENSE BECAUSE WHAT HAS NOT BEEN REFERENCED IN THE PEOPLE ANALYZING AND THE REGULATORS PUSHING BACK ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY SHOULD BE
1:27:57-- THERE SHOULD BE EXEMPTIONS FOR SPORTS TO BE ON ALL BROADCAST TELEVISION, AND THE STREAMING ERA, THERE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MLB TO LICENSE CONTENT ON A REGIONAL BASIS, YOU CAN STILL LICENSE CONTENT AND HAVE A G EO TARGETED TO A STATE OR CITY.
1:28:14THAT HAS NOT BEEN EXPORTED TO THIS POINT AND IT IS SOMETHING I AM INTERESTED TO FIND. IF THEY GO DOWN THAT ROAD IN TERMS OF NETFLIX SAYING, WE ONLY WANT THE LA RIGHTS, WHICH WOULD BE UNUSUAL, WE HAVE NOT SEEN THAT HAPPENING WITH THE STREAMING SERVICES TO THIS POINT -- SO, THAT WOULD BE SOMETHING TO SEE IF THAT EVOLVES IN THE NEGOTIATIONS WHICH WILL KICK OFF IN 2027. ROMAINE: I'M CURIOUS WHEN WE GET INTO THESE NEXT ROUNDS, I KNOW YOU TALK ABOUT THIS IDEA THAT FROM NOW THE FRAGMENTATION KIND OF
1:28:41MAKES SENSE. LEAGUES LOVE IT BECAUSE THEY GET A BIG SHORT-TERM REVENUE BOOST EVEN IF THERE IS A LONG-TERM SACRIFICE OF VIEWERS, BUT DOES THAT HIT STALL SPEED AT ANY TIME, IS THERE A CEILING OUT THERE THAT YOU LOOK AT AND SAY, THIS IS GOING TO BE IT? SIMON: WE HAVE NOT SEEN IT YET. THIS IS SOMETHING PEOPLE HAVE BEEN PONTIFICATING ON FOR YEARS AND PARTICULARLY RELATIVE TO NFL RIGHTS.
1:29:08BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN PUSHBACK, WE HAVE NOT SEEN THAT CEILING AS YOU SAY KICKED IN. I DON'T THINK WE ARE GOING TO BECAUSE AS YOU ALLUDED TO AT THE START OF THE CONVERSATION, IT IS STILL VERY MUCH TIMELY CONTENT THAT HAS TO BE CONSUMED LIVE AND HAS A BUILT-IN FAN BASE. AS LONG AS THERE'S A PROLIFERATION OF PLATFORMS, THEY ARE ALL GOING TO STEP UP FOR THE PREMIUM CONTENT SO I CANNOT SEE IT TAKING A BACKWARDS STEP AT THIS POINT.
1:29:41ROMAINE: SIMON, I WAS A PLEASURE. SIMON GALLAGHER OVER AT SPG GLOBAL, WITH A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SPORTS STREAMING LANDSCAPE WITH THE PLAYOFFS KICKING OFF HER MLB AND WNBA AND OF COURSE THE NHL SEASON KICKING OFF AS WELL. WE WILL SET YOU UP FOR WHAT TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS COMING IN -- COMING UP NEXT YEAR ON BLOOMBERG. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
1:30:12ROMAINE: LET'S SET YOU UP FOR WHAT THE MARKETS WILL HAVE THEIR EYES ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE DO WANT TO START OFF WITH EARNINGS COMING OUT BEFORE THE BELL TOMORROW INCLUDING FROM CARNIVAL AND CARMAX. THE STOCKS HAVE BEEN IN THE NEWS AS OF LATE.
1:30:28CARNIVAL OF COURSE, THE EXPECTATIONS ARE HIGHER, AND UNFORTUNATELY IT COULD RUN UP THOSE EXPECTATIONS -- THOSE EXPEDITIONS COULD RUN INTO CONCERNS RIGHT NOW ABOUT ELEVATED OIL PRICES. WE WILL GET CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA AS WELL AS JOLT S DATA WITH THE OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT JOBS REPORT. AND A REFOCUS ON TECH AND A.I. OPEN AI HOLDING HOLDING IS DEVELOPER DAY HERE IN NEW YORK. CEO SAM ALTMAN IS EXPECTED TO ADDRESS FOLKS THERE.
1:30:59WE WILL HAVE FULL COVERAGE OF THAT HERE ON BLOOMBERG AND BRING YOU EVERYTHING THEY SAY AS OF COURSE THE A.I.
1:31:03MERRY-GO-ROUND CONTINUES ON.
1:31:09ON THE TRADE FRONT, A U.S. BAN ON SOME CANADIAN PRODUCTS TAKES EFFECT TOMORROW AND COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON SEVERAL KEY COMPANIES, PRIMARILY THOSE IN THE ALCOHOL AS WELL AS THE AUTOMOTIVE SPACE, AS A TIT-FOR-TAT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CANADA STILL REMAINS UNRESOLVED.
1:31:26AND THE MLB POSTSEASON ACTUALLY KICKS OFF TOMORROW AS DOES THE REGULAR NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE SEASON -- SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THERE. SOMETHING WE WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT WITH SIMON GALLAGHER. KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THE BIG MOVERS OF THE DAY THAT COULD BE THE BIG MOVERS OF TOMORROW. THAT INCLUDES NAMES LIKE MONGO DB, HAVING AN AWFUL DAY TODAY, THE WORST DAY SINCE MARCH. META, DOWN. NVIDIA, IN THE GREEN. ♪