0:00Recently, it feels like Anthropic can't stop winning. But on the other hand, it feels like OpenAI just can't stop losing. From the horrible changes where they reduced our limits terribly on the $200 plan to the semiflop of GPT61 Soul and the lack of any real follow-up for GPD6 Astra to compete with something as powerful as Opus 55 from Anthropic, it's just kind of been a losing streak for us Codeex fans recently. And I'm counting myself as one of them because I've historically been one of the defenders of Codex and OpenAI. And right now, it's pretty hard to justify using. All that
0:28said, it does feel like we're finally getting back on the right track. Tibo just made a huge announcement that I'm really excited about. As of October 29th, they are doubling all usage limits for all pro accounts, whether it's the $100 tier, the $200 tier, $500 tier, as well as the business premium effective today. There are layers to this one.
0:46They are making changes that might give you less usage in certain cases for certain people. They are now bundling things together they weren't before, which can get a little nasty. And the $200 tier in particular is uh messy to say the least. There's a lot to dive into from how these limits will affect our day-to-day use to how much work we can actually get done in each of the tiers to how much dollar value are we getting when we put in 200 bucks? What do we take out? And of course, the most important question, how does this compare to the value we get from our
1:16claude code subscriptions? Because normally when we compare value, we're comparing API prices. The sub prices are different and the amount of usage you get is different. So, how does this all line up and which plan should you be getting today? There's a lot of layers to this one that make it complex, but there is one thing I know you should get and it's much easier to justify. Today's sponsor. As a made a lot of things easier. Sadly, O isn't one of them. And that's why I can't wait to show you guys today's sponsor. Work a what? Passport.
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2:43Before we can really talk about this announcement correctly, we need to go back in time a little. Back in time to when Tibo was uh essay dumping on X. All the way back on September 28th this year. Feels like years ago at this point, Tibo made this longass announcement about how the $200 tier was going to have changes. specifically, if you were to do the math, it would net out to half the dollar amount in API spend compared to the old Pro 200 plan.
3:11He then tries to justify how we'll actually get more work done than we would have on the previous subscription a month ago, including things like committing to not having 5-hour limits anymore to guaranteeing you'll always get more work done with increasing levels of quality. This is actually a good guarantee we'll talk about in a bit. this idea that as models get smarter and more capable, you should always be able to do more work on a given subscription tier than you were before. We'll get there. The biggest part here is C though. They don't want to have an incentive on themselves to
3:39artificially inflate API list prices to make it look like they're getting a lot.
3:43Instead, they want to continue to both rapidly reduce prices and increase capabilities of models on the API. It is worth noting that this is around the time when 61 soul dropped. And 61 soul was, I believe, like a day or two after with OpenAI dev day. that model is way cheaper than they had originally probably planned to serve it for. That's why they had to make this change because if they made the model cheaper on API and they give you the same dollar amount outside of API, then they're eating more compute than they would otherwise have to. If you're curious how the economics
4:13of all that work, take a look at the video I just put out about Claude Ultra plan where I discuss this all in much more detail. There is something worth noting in this announcement, though. The whole thing's about the pro $200 plan.
4:25None of these changes affected the other plans, which means that today's change restores the $200 plan to where it was.
4:33But it also doubled what you get for the $100 plan and for the $500 plan. And the $500 plan doubling is pretty nuts because it means that that plan is now 50x usage compared to the pro tier. This is a pretty insane amount of usage that you can probably only blow through if you're using fast and ultraast heavily.
4:50I cannot fathom how on normal speeds using their best model right now, which is 61 Soul, not Astra Soul, how you could ever get through the $500 tier.
4:59But yeah, worth noting. So, we should start by looking at the numbers of how much dollar value you're getting. Even though, as I just said, it's not the right way to measure, it's a worthwhile thing to note. And here we see that on the $500 plan, you now get around $10.5,000 of usage. And on the $200 plan, you get around 4.3K of usage. So, those are still both heavily subsidized, but remember the $200 Claude plan gets you 12 grand in usage. It does have weird
5:27restrictions like half limits on Fable, which thankfully, at least as of the time of recording, there is no Fable model worth using over Opus. So, the 50% limit doesn't affect you quite as badly.
5:37But even then, the $200 Claude plan with the 50% cut gets you 6 grand of usage, where the $200 plan on OpenAI, no matter what, only gets you 4.3K. So, you're still getting much less dollar value when you compare the OpenAI models and the anthropic models on the subscriptions. But how does it compare for your real world usage? As I've been trying to explain in my videos for a while now, OpenAI models are much cheaper, not just per token, cuz per
6:05token pricing is garbage. There's three ways models are effectively being priced that we care about. There is how much do they charge per token in and per token out. There's also like cashing involved there which changes the economics entirely. There is how much tokens does it take to solve a problem which is the thing I think most people miss is they look at the dollar price per token and they forget that certain models use more and fewer tokens. I actually visualize this here by the way. Notice how all the OpenAI models are pretty far on the left there and even the worst case with
6:35something like 61 soul doing 68k tokens on max. It's still around the same number of tokens as medium or high would be on Fable. And if you drop down to X high for 61 Soul, it uses fewer tokens than anything Anthropic has released recently other than Opus 55 on low. So X high61 Soul does fewer tokens than Opus 55 medium and obviously scores significantly better because the low and
7:04medium reasoning is just not going to compare to something like 61 soul at its best. Yeah, 61 Soul X high score and a 52 on the artificial analysis intelligence index and Opus 55 medium is scoring a 48 $245 a task versus uh 76 cents a task or this is log scale. If we switch to linear, you'll see the gap even more so because you're paying more than 2x the price for medium opus and
7:31getting worse results than x high soul.
7:34So again, pricing type number two, per task pricing, we see openai just slaughtering anthropic here. But I mentioned there's a third thing which is the thing we're actually talking about today, which is the subscriptions. So what happens when you combine this with the amount of usage you get in the $200 plans? Adam Holter has been working on this a lot recently and his numbers have been fascinating to look at. He adjusted the prices based on the discounts you get on the subs and the numbers look very different now as a result. There is
8:04still a gap here to an extent like this is cost per task but remember lower is better and here 61 soul on max is costing by the subs under half as much as you would get from opus 55 max.
8:20Remember, I almost never recommend Opus 55 Max. I basically never recommend max on any of the model lines, especially anthropic models. I mostly rock high with the occasional shift to X high. And you'll notice high on Opus 55 is around 5 cents per task versus 61 soul on high, which is 4 cents a task. I would put those two neck andneck is like the two I reach to. I do a lot of Soul XI and I do a lot of Opus 55 high and they're priced
8:47almost identically because once you cancel out everything else the $200 plan being priced in the capability price gap gets a lot smaller and the value you get ends up balancing out quite a bit. This gets more interesting when you look at how it affects the PTO line. The PTO line is what is the best value at a given level for different levels of capability. And if we look at it for API prices, you see some weirdness. Like for example, Haiku technically being slightly smarter even though it's 2x
9:17more expensive than Terra on low is. But Terra immediately takes back over as well as 61 soul on low. There's not much reason API price-wise to be defaulting to Haiku, at least according to these numbers. But you'll see for the most part it's a pretty smooth curve with that one weird haiku blip. The rest is just open AAI dominance. Even if you add in openw weight models, OpenAI tends to dominate a lot on the PTOA line right now with Opus only coming out as the better value at the absolute top because
9:46it has the best performance right now.
9:48And if you doubt that, I'm sorry. Opus 55 is the best model available, at least as of the time of this recording. When we switch over to the subs, you see it flipping back and forth a hell of a lot more. In fact, now that I'm looking at it more closely, similar to how there was that one weird dip here where haiku just barely technically qualifies, there's a similar one of those here where soul high just barely technically qualifies. The entire rest of the curve, other than like this one blip for soul
10:16low is just anthropic. Turns out the first chart I was looking at wasn't exactly right. This one looks a lot better for OpenAI. I thought the reason was because they included the 2x limits here and they might not have in the other chart I was in. That is not the case. The reason is much sillier. This version has resets because if you didn't know this, OpenAI resets a lot. 11 times in the last 30 days. So, if we turn that off, then the limits get a lot worse and
10:45things look closer. Again, shout out to Adam for all the work he put into making these charts and getting this data.
10:51Nothing else is quite as advanced here.
10:54And these sub limits are very much important for us to understand. And it's crazy to see how much the numbers shift when you turn the resets on and off. The reason is pretty obvious when you look at the numbers here. From April 16th to October 31st, we got 52 resets in codeex and we got 14 in claw. And we haven't gotten a single claw reset for 30 days now, which is sad cuz I like claw resets. This is still based on the price for artificial analysis work though. And sadly, when we look at real numbers for real world tasks, the the gap closes a
11:23bit more. I mentioned in some other videos that I have a new skill I've been using called council, where I let my agents review the work I'm doing across different models at once. So, I have some changes I want to make. I have a proposal, a plan or something, and then the council comes in across three to five different model families to give feedback. This ends up being a really good generator for like for-like tests because now I have a bunch of different models that are given the exact same task. review this change. And this means I've been able to go through and analyze
11:50all of my usage. I had Opus and Soul judge my usage of Opus and Soul together and apart fully blind obviously to see which reviews they prefer. And as I would hope nobody is surprised by, Opus 55 was preferred by both quite a bit.
12:07Opus preferred Opus 66 out of the 83 times. Soul preferred Opus 54 out of the 83 times. So Soul preferred Opus 65% of the time. Opus preferred opus 80% of the time. There are occasions where both prefer soul. It's just much less often.
12:21The median cost for an Opus review is $1.65. And the median cost for a soul review was 36. When you factor this against the expected API value that you get for a sub, which is around $3,300 for Opus with Claude and about $1,000 with Soul on the Chacht Pro $200 plan.
12:40It comes out to a much closer gap here with Opus giving you around 205 reviews on that plan and the Chatbt Pro Sub giving you 290 reviews. So again, while the price difference might look extreme, the actual amount of usage that you're getting between the two is a lot closer.
12:58And when you consider how much more capable Opus 55 is, that obviously ends up being the better value. Soul is slightly faster, which is nice in its reviews. that gets its work done faster.
13:09But generally speaking, this is the number that matters. You get around 200 reviews with Opus on Claude and 290 with Solon Chat GBT Pro. So if a 30 to 50% bump in things you can do in a given month is super super important to you and you're willing to take the hit with 61 Souls capability to do it. But if you want the best possible model and you're scared of the Cloud Sub not being quite as good of a value as Codeex, that's not the case right now. In fact, it's
13:37actually kind of crazy how close these are in terms of usage right now. It's not as big of a gap as I had expected, especially now that this has been doubled. Oh yeah, almost forgot cuz I know people are getting really huffy about this. ChatGBT and work are now included within your limits. Previously, using work and normal chat did not count against the same limits that you had for codeex. This affects maybe like 30 people cuz I don't know a lot of people
14:05who use chat and work enough that those would even have a like 1% dent in their codeex limits. But if you are one of those people, I would say I'm sorry, but I'm honestly just confused. Like I would like to know more about your use case cuz that's crazy to me. The doubling should still be more than enough to cover both sides. I don't think people being outraged about that are making much sense. Usage in work in chat is obviously going to use exponentially fewer tokens than day-to-day CEX usage.
14:29Just look at the numbers, guys. Come on.
14:31Don't don't be annoying about that. The other question is dots. Apparently, dots will still not be affected by these changes and it will not use your limits when working within dots. At least I think. I'll be real though. I have no idea. I don't like dots. I have not found it to be pleasant compared to the other assistant tools that exist. I have not set up Duet yet. I did get invited.
14:51I've mostly just been using Grockbot though. It's been surprisingly solid.
14:54It's kind of crazy that I have my OpenAI subs for computer use and verification.
14:58I have my Claude subs for all my day-to-day code work and then I have my one Grock sub just for Grockbot. But yeah, that's where we are. I think that's all I have to say on this one.
15:08This is definitely a good change and it's almost annoying how much people are pushing back on the small parts that don't matter. It is worth calling out that the $200 plan is back where it was a month ago. It's not a huge bump for $200 subs. It's just a restoration of where they were. The $500 plan getting 2x is crazy. and the $100 plane getting 2xed is pretty interesting as well.
15:28Overall, I think this is a really good change, but it is missing something important. A model that is worth using.
15:34OpenAI, I'm begging you. We need something better. We need something that actually can go head-to-head with Opus 5.5 because that model is just unbelievable and nothing that you guys have released is quite there yet. I can't wait to see what you cook. Until next time, he's nerds.