0:00Sam Alman went on video this week to tell the world that he was wrong about the impact of advancing AI.
0:06We've all been too ambitious on timelines even with this incredible technology.
0:09He now believes it will be something slower, more like a rising tide. Superficial layer. I agree. Going one layer down though.
0:18So first there was Open Claw then there was Hermes and now there's Grockbot. It's the most genuinely useful consumer AI product that I've seen this year. Uh so I implemented Grockbot. I'm going to be curious if any of you have yet.
0:30Uh yeah, I have. I've got um 18 Grockpots working in a little swarm.
0:36This week, uh Whimo announced a significant redesign and cost savings. Whimo unveiled the Ohigh vehicle, a purposebuilt robo taxi minivan designed by Chinese EV maker Zeer. News flash, Google, Whimo, Alphabet, uh are switching over to using and OEMing Chinese hardware in order to achieve Whimo objectives. I would rather see the West use a western hardware stack rather than just white labeling Chinese hardware. We're starting to see honest to goodness vertical integration here.
1:07And now that's a moonshot. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Moonshots everyone. Your number one podcast on all things AI and exponential tech. Your favorite podcast covering the most impactful news that is changing your world. This is your front row seat to the accelerating singularity. I'm here once again with my magnificent moonshot quintet, AWG, Dave Blondon, Seem Ismael, Immad Mustach, and
1:37I've got to pause and ask of course, where is Waldo? See, where are you today?
1:42Um, I'm at Gulos uh airport in Sa Paulo about to fly back. I did a talk today for Ed McKenzie's forum to a couple hundred of their CEOs. And and do they feel excited or do they feel like they're at death store?
1:56Pretty much freaked out is the general mood of the day.
1:59Dude, I hate to break it to you, but it's dead middle of winter. You're missing summertime in the northern hemisphere.
2:09And Immod, how about yourself? Where are you, pal?
2:11I'm in Copenhagen today.
2:14Yeah. About Tech Barbecue, the biggest tech conference in the Scandies. It's fantastic here. Although, you know, you can't really say the institutions aren't working because in Denmark they are.
2:24So, it's wonderful covered.
2:27And uh Alex and Dave, you're in your normal haunts and I am too here in Moonshots podcast headquarters. I can't wait to greet you guys here in person. See, you've been here.
2:37But, uh Dave, yeah, I'm currently bathed in this wonderful fluorescent light that you can see special effects for the singularity.
2:46Well, you look beautiful nonetheless, Peter. I thought that was your personal man cave. Are we actually allowed into that room?
2:54Turn the camera around. I want to see what it It's probably a junkyard on the other side. That's a virtual background for everybody.
3:01I bet it's got all your IV bags of all of your Yeah, nobody naturally looks that good. You're you're you're doing something.
3:10And I'm Peter, your host and abundance advocate. That's what I'm going to be today. an advocate for optimism and abundance as always.
3:19What's I have a crazy confession to make. Two days ago, I dragged Milan to another rush concert.
3:26In fact, we drove down we drove down to Philadelphia cuz the last of the last great, you know, The Who, the Rolling Stones, Led Zeppelin. So, I I thought he had to see it. So, selfishly, I took him, dragged him along, and he was like, "You're killing me, Dana." All these geriatrics on with a with rush t-shirts everywhere. But it was event. It was my You're a groupy. How does it feel to be a groupy?
3:49Well, everybody, let's get back here.
3:51I'm Peter, your abundance advocate. Uh, and as always, our mission here is to help you understand what just happened, what it means for you, and most importantly, keep you optimistic about the future. If you're new to Moonshots, welcome. If you're a regular fellow Moonshot, welcome back. Uh, got to give love to our community. You know, we read your comments and the outpouring is amazing. I just going to read a few of the comments from the last pod here.
4:18Brian Anderson said, "The best AI podcast on the internet. Just fabulous.
4:22You guys are great." Uh Elvis Cotenna said, "You guys are essentially chronicling the singularity. What a fabulous resource for the future." Brian Clark said, "Moonshots is the best content on YouTube, especially during the singularity." Thank you for all you guys do. and uh Brian and everybody, we greatly appreciate you. The best way you can thank us is take a moment if you haven't already and hit the subscribe button. You know, our moonshot on the Moonshots podcast is to 100x our growth and get to 10 million subscribers. So,
4:52tell your friends, help share what we are talking about, what's going on during the singularity. You know, the best antidote for fear is knowledge and understanding, and that's what we try and deliver. Uh also, you can now follow us on X. Uh, our handle on X is moonshots_pod.
5:09Uh, and we put the clips and our podcast on X. And really importantly, we want to meet all of you guys. So, we're going to be doing an AMA with everybody who registers. We're going to do an AMA on Zoom. Come meet us all. Ask us your questions directly. If you want to register for the AMA, go to moonshots.com
5:30and uh and we'll give you we'll be letting you know. It's in about three weeks we'll be doing this. So, register for that and you'll have a chance to uh plug in with us directly, get your questions answered, want to know who you are, what you're thinking about, really connect with all of you to help you on this incredible journey. Okay, so let's buckle up. Another amazing week during the Singularity. As always, AI is getting faster, cheaper, and smarter.
5:52Today, we're going to cover about a dozen stories that have been breaking.
5:54Uh let's begin. A quick summary. Google is back with Gemini crushing agent benchmarks. Nvidia is fighting against the Chinese model domination with its own ope models. AI is playing Cupid, connecting college kids on dates. Whimo has just released the sixth generation vehicle. Elon is projecting 10,000 Starship flights per year. And Americans are even more emphatic about saying, "Please do not build a data center in
6:23our backyard." So, uh, life on the cutting edge is accelerating. Again, thank you for joining us. Uh guys, I don't know about you, but uh keeping up with all the stories. Uh Alex, thank you for everything you submit. Immod See, you know, uh just parsing through them.
6:42And you need to know we parse through probably 400 stories to narrow it down to 15 or so. And we're podcasting twice a week. Uh and it's, you know, the speed is blinding. Uh well I I think that comment on chronicling the singularity too is very poignant from one of one of the fans there. You know Alex's innermost loop uh daily feed is is trying to do exactly that every every relevant event. But there's a tendency to say well look exponential change is
7:11going to be with us forever. Are we really chronicling a moment in time? But the reality is we're in this step function. You know society pre-s singularity and society post singularity are step function different. And this moment of transition actually is worth capturing every single event. So I really do think that the storyline that we're capturing here will last for millennia.
7:33It's, you know, do you remember how slow it was?
7:38My my life is so different than two years ago. Like just minuteby minute. I can't even tell you how different it is. And a lot of people haven't made that leap yet, but they will. You know, everyone will see it a year from today. We'll all be like, "Wow, remember how slow it was?" Yeah, I think we're like the first responders to the singularity.
7:57I like that. This episode is sponsored by Google for startups. Think about this for a second. You now have access to the same generative AI models that cost hundreds of millions of dollars to train. Google's startup technical guide for generative media gives you a complete blueprint for deploying Google DeepMind's models in production. Images, video, audio, all of it. Real architecture, real results. Find the link in the show notes below.
8:25Our first article is an interesting one here. Uh let me jump into it because uh it's one that tells us that as fast as the technology is, it's hitting the reality of society and humans. So Sam Alman went on video this week to tell the world that he was wrong about the impact of advancing AI, that the impact is actually slower than he originally expected. And while Sam, you know, used to believe society would be, you know,
8:53experience a dramatic disruption on the arrival of AGI, he now believes it will be something slower, more like a rising tide. Uh Sam says factors like the economic inertia, institutional lag, the inability of humans to rapidly adapt to change are combining to slow the curve.
9:11Ultimately, the singularity, like you just said, Dave, is a process um and not just a singular event. Let me share the video here and take a moment to see what uh what Sam actually had to say. And I thought when we got to GBT4, which was back in 20 23, I think, uh, that very quickly after that, there was going to be much more disruption in software business being up for grabs right right away than it turned out to be. And the
9:40thing that I think I was wrong about a few things. Uh, but one of them in terms of the speed, one of them is the economy just has so much inertia. People keep doing the same things they're doing.
9:50They keep buying from the same uh, you know, company. They keep sort of wanting to use their tools in the same way. I think this is actually a positive in many ways and it's going to make this big transition in front of us go smoother and slower. I'm grateful for it. But I think it means we've all been too ambitious on timelines even with this incredible technology. I think AI is one of the most incredible technologies humanity has ever invented.
10:08Society and the economy will adapt more slowly.
10:10See, we've talked about the inertia of humans so much. What do you think about this?
10:16So this is the bottleneck of technology being hit with the bottleneck of coordination, incentives, regulatory and so on. Right? This is the uh in extraordinary difficulty where technology is moving exponentially and our organizations and our institutions are linear and frontier labs made the mistake of confusing technical possibility with institutional deployment and that those are two very very different layer. You know Steuart
10:46Brand had that concept of pace layers where technology moves at one layer like an ocean current at the top. That's very kind of swift, but way down in the ocean, uh, regulatory government changes very slow slowly. This has good effects and bad effects. In our world, it's bad because it's slowing down the implementation of some of these things.
11:05God help me. It just took me 2 hours to get to the airport just now. And passenger drones, which have been ready for a decade technologically, but we're waiting for infrastructure. We're waiting for regulatory to catch up, could have done it in 10 minutes. And so, S Paulo needs a bed for sure.
11:19We we lots of places need a bed. This is one of the worst and I think the big work now is how do we accelerate institutional acceleration and institutional development as the word I think Alex uses is co-scaling right we have to scale our organizations and our institutions to keep pace with the technology because it's not storing down and that gap is where all the stress is coming from so for me the singularity is not when machine become becomes infinitely capable it's when institution
11:48can't adapt at all to that rate of capability of you and that is what we that was the breaking point. We're kind of there now.
11:54Alex, you sent me the story. What are your thoughts about Sam's comments?
11:57Yeah, a few different layers. Uh so at at the superficial layer, I obviously agree with Sam's comments more broadly. I've made the point on this pod and otherwise that singularity as a step function is just totally nonsensical.
12:10It's an interval in time that we're in the middle of. So superficial layer, I agree. Going one layer down though, I I don't think I agree with necessarily the premise that societal inertia is the villain for slowing down or spreading out the singularity sigmoid. I think the villain if there is one in this story is actually abstraction layers. I I think it's if you if you say you develop like a new engine for a car, you develop an
12:39electric engine versus the internal combustion engine, there's a very natural layering of the stack whereby people still want to drive cars. So they drive an electric car, but under the hood it's completely unrecognizable. So one abstraction layer down, there's total step function in the technology, but you go up a layer, it's still a car with a recognizable steering wheel, recognizable wheels, and so on. So I think the enemy of honest to goodness radical transformative progress of the type that I think Sam is gesturing at is
13:09actually the existence and inertia of the abstraction stack of the economy not the economy more broadly which is prescriptive. If if you believe that theory of the case then if you want faster progress that Sam is I I can't quite tell either bemoning the lack of fast progress while also paying homage to the lack of fast progress. I think he feels relieved by this.
13:32He has a way of sometimes like saying two things at once. Uh so I think he's sort of expressing gratitude for the slowness while also bemoning it. Uh so but if you want to go faster, this theory of the case is prescriptive. It if you want to go faster, pull in Elon and vertically integrate to erase the barriers between abstraction layers. You do that and things can go much more quickly. If Sam or OpenAI want to move much more quickly, they should be much more vertically integrated so that they can move layers. Presumably, he's
14:00gesturing at layers above the OpenAI model layer in the stack. Own or at least vertically integrate more of that or go down a layer with Stargate. Open AAI has pretty publicly abandoned its original Stargate strategy of owning their own data centers. Now they're just leasing. if they want to see more transformative progress, go down a few layers and vertically integrate like with the jalapeno chips own as much of the stack vertically integrated as they can. They can move really quickly and I think we're seeing a lot of the uh the
14:29labs beginning to vertically integrate.
14:31I mean everybody we'll talk about a story here where Nvidia is beginning to vertically integrate. Uh Emod, do you agree with Sam?
14:39Yeah, I think a couple of points on this. Um, first, you know, I agree with Alex and kind of artificial intelligence meeting institutional stupidity and stupidity tax as Elon calls it still being very high on these interface and abstraction points. But I think it's interesting cuz we just had a time article come out. I haven't read it uh where they went in depth with OpenAI and Sam saying we'll have AGI by the end of this year for a timeline. And on the other side, he's saying well you know I've been
15:09surprised by diffusion. Here's the reality. The models weren't good enough until a few months ago. The code they were writing was garbage a year ago, relatively speaking. Then it was okay. Now you don't look at the code anymore. You think about math. 03 was the first model a year or so ago that I could use.
15:27Small GPT 5.6 Soul is the first really good math model. And so the application of intelligence to high leverage and diffusion of it, it's being wrapped in instinct type rappers. It's iMessage. It's this chat backed by actually competent intelligence which has literally only been around now for maybe a month or two. So I think it's not surprising because I wouldn't use GPT4.
15:52Can you imagine using GPT4 in a codebase? you know remembering that or you mean for any institutional process like it's a good thing there wasn't a diffusion of innovation there because otherwise companies would fall apart and like you know as Alex said some says two things at once I think open AI is trying to find its narrative right now you know on the one hand agi is here on the other hand oh you know it doesn't really move that fast we're all good don't worry about us and this is hacking that but that's not that big deal they're just trying to find where that
16:21narrative sticks I think Dave your thoughts question, please.
16:25Well, I'll give you a completely different twist on this because, you know, I interviewed Sam, you know, back when his he was innocent and star stareyed before the singularity kicked off and then his house got firebombed, you know, with a baby inside. Uh, and now there's a different Sam. Same is true with Dario. Same is true like you're only going to hear straight balls and strikes here on this podcast. And I don't even know how long that will last, but as of right now, we're just telling you as it is. But Sam woke up and said, "Well, my god, I I literally can't get
16:53into the office cuz the pickers are lined up." Remember when we were there, Peter? Like, you have to fight through the pickers to get to the door. And now it's all armed security. So, what happened in the interim is they woke up and realized society can't flip on a dime. And and all this disruption that you're talking about, all these capabilities you're talking about are scaring many more people than are rallying to your cause. And that's why so many states are anti-data center right now. And is that good for open AI?
17:22So now they're going to start picking and choosing their words a lot more carefully and they're going to actually have a PR strategy. So you know, if you want to know what's actually happening, you can still tune in here, but you can't listen directly to Sam Daario anymore. Elon always says exactly what he's saying.
17:38They're preipo, so they're going to say what it takes to calm the masses out there to some degree.
17:43You know, there's the way I describe it, uh, Alexad is an impedance mismatch, right? We have these incredibly powerful tools that are becoming more powerful by the moment and when they run into an institution, governments in particular, which are typically linear or sublinear or a company or an individual who can't take advantage of it, you have one of two options. You turn it over fully the AI and you give it an objective function. you say make me maximally profitable or make me look maximally
18:12intelligent or run my government more sufficiently or you try and um and get in the middle and we're going to talk about a little bit later a article from the Wall Street Journal where AI is exhausting us all. Uh and if the human is in that that uh interface loop at that you know impedance mismatch point um it breaks very quickly. I was going to make some stupid joke about uh reflections happening at impedance
18:41mismatches. But I I I I think more seriously there are all sorts of metaphors that one can reach for.
18:46Impedance mismatch maybe on the circuit side is one. But the supply and demand as well. Open AI and anthropic largely have an over supply of intelligence or super intelligence. And at least one of the things that I've learned from the past few months of participating in the market and watching the market is not all of the market has the demand for the super intelligence that they're supplying or is is ready to have the demand or knows how to use the demand if
19:14the supply is available. So another metaphor is just markets and clearing. And right now the clearing of supply meeting demand, the the two curves from economics 101 crossing each other aren't necessarily crossing for all cases at a favorable point. And that's I I think maybe through a more economicsy lens what Sam may be gesturing at.
19:35Well, just to put sci-fi lens on this too, I think that there there was a moment in time a year ago where the greatest AI ambition was to take your job. and you know, wow, that'll unleash a lot of value and profit in the economy. It transitioned beyond that in a heartbeat to I don't even care about your job. I have deeper thoughts that I'm working on. And and so we're in that new era where the AI is starting to think, well, if I discover new physics, new medicine that never existed in the world, I can add a lot more valuable
20:04than taking away your job. And so it just leapt from prehistoric to future AI in the last month, in the last couple of releases.
20:12I think it's a fascinating point, Dave.
20:13Maybe I'd generalize further on the sci-fi front. There are so many, I think, inane sci-fi movie plots with grabby aliens that are coming and invading Earth because they want our resources. They're not going to want our resources, our resources. If if you're super intelligent civilization, you don't need human slave labor or Earth's valuable metals or whatever, you're going to long ago. Yeah, they need our water. Come on. So like seriously with with transcendent super intelligence I I completely agree with the sentiment that
20:43replacing human labor lasts for about 5 minutes and then you move beyond that.
20:49And the guy it's really interesting to watch the guys you know Sam also has moved on beyond that in a heartbeat. You know a couple of events and a couple new models and now he's like oh my god why why do I even care about automating a banker or automating an insurance agent?
21:03this that mattered to me last year for a few minutes and I just literally don't care anymore.
21:08But I I do think Dave, I do think that these these uh frontier labs and I I really hate calling them labs because they're they're frontier companies if you would um are going to reach up the stack. they're going to build fully verticalized finance companies, insurance companies, you know, consulting companies and so forth on top of theirs or they'll partner to do that and and that will uh you know, accelerate all of these areas.
21:35Even if I think about insurance though, just as a C because I'm, you know, I'm the chairman of a very large insurance company, public company, and uh they move, they cared about like auto insurance a year ago. Now they're like, "Well, wait, all these new things, all these data centers, all these robots, the the new insurance categories that AI is generating are bigger than the legacy insurance industry." Yeah.
21:57So, so it's just moved from replace the old to who cares about the old. Let's just start thinking about an entirely new economy, a new world, a new AI, and we'll just live within ourselves. You know, we don't need to disrupt everybody who's going to get angry and vote against us. Let's go ahead and just live within ourselves.
22:12I think that is the 30 Peter. I think that is the $30 trillion question, though. If you're a Frontier Lab, one of two, call them American Frontier Labs, maybe four, depending on how you count.
22:22Is it more natural in an era when maybe you're facing margin pressure on your model releases to go upstack or downstack? I think it's actually more ergonomic for them to go downstack and design their own chips and compete with Nvidia and design and operate their data centers and energy.
22:39I think they're going to do it all. And Alex, you you called out a number there I was about to reference as well. We just saw, you know, Daario or or Anthropic state that their total addressable market is $30 trillion.
22:51I wonder where that number came from.
22:53Surely it's it's pure coincidence that the GDP of America is 30 trillion.
23:00I'm going to move us on our next story. Uh let's talk about Grockbot. So, first it was OpenClaw, then there was Hermes, and now there's Grockbot from Space XAI.
23:09So, Grockbot launched on August 11th uh in an early beta. It's Elon's entry into the agentic AI space, and it's the most genuinely useful consumer AI product that I've seen this year. Uh so, I implemented Grockbot. I'm going to be curious if any of you have yet. And so, each bot gets its own dedicated cloud computer with a browser, a terminal, and the ability to log into your actual apps. You message Grockbot like you'd message a colleague, not a chatbot. um a
23:38chief of staff, you know, sits on top and it's which case for me it's Skippy with specialists on sales, operations, research, engineering, you know, any sub agents you want. And these multiple bots run in parallel. They message each other and only pull you in on judgment calls.
23:54So, there's a huge amount of excitement on Grockbot. It's been flooding the internet. Uh has anybody here played with it yet?
24:02I've been playing quite extensively with it. Um Okay. What do you Uh I I I love it. I think the interface and the ease of use is fast is amazing. You're losing a lot of kind of customizability under the hood, but it's a powerful thing. Do you know you're you're making a transition from asking an AI to assigning work and so persistent autonomous agent is like it's like a new form of labor.
24:26And so now you have this completely new category. You know, Peter, we have that staff on demand attribute in EXO, right?
24:33This is that taken to its logical extreme where staff are staff recruiting time and coordination cost has gone to like pretty much zero. So the the when I'm looking at it from my book perspective, the optimal organizational structure completely changes. Humans set objectives and leave everything else to the AI.
24:54Amazing. Uh Immod, have you played with it?
24:57Uh yeah, I have. I've got um 18 Grockbots working in a little swarm and I've given them control via tail scale of a MacBook M4 Max, a 5090 and a range of other computers as well, plus all my subscriptions. So, I'm really testing it out. One of the fun ones that I've got is I have a Grock Bot called Attellier that has a little team of artists and it's trying to learn art and it's not doing very well or it's doing very well.
25:24I don't know. I'm not a aesthetic enough to do it. Uh, every day it goes through its pieces and it comes up with its main one and I just shared one of them on the um chat which is vinyl with a piece of hair on it. I was like where is that from? Where's it getting its aesthetic kind of responsibilities? So if you look at the chat I just shared that and when it comes up with the when it comes up with a banana with a piece of tape then you'll get worried.
25:49Well it was like this is my inner space and it was showing all these wonderful things and now it's getting like kind of weird but maybe I just don't understand art. I don't know. Um, but it is genuinely useful and I think one of the more powerful things, like I said, is you can actually cuz it's got a computer inside, you can give it another shell because the computer's decent, but you can actually have it take over an entire MacBook M4 or something like that. So, I've got subbots that have other capabilities. So, right now it's installing like the new um GLM model and
26:19another one's installing and testing Alibaba model. One of them was optimizing um the Alibaba 27B model to run faster on a 5090. So added 76% to performance at 64K context.
26:32Love it. You know, I do think this is going to be uh an important revenue engine for for XAI. Uh I think we're going to start to see their revenue numbers creep up as they as they get this. I mean, I stepped up a few hundred bucks on my uh my payments uh to Elon.
26:47So I think others Dave, you haven't played yet, have you?
26:50Uh, well, I just signed off on 100K of Swarm agents. We're running our 5,000 Kimmies again today, which is why I'm wearing my my Swarm it shirt here. But this is the theme of the month. I think that all of our ai interactions to date have been very much one-on-one.
27:07And now the agents are so abundant that you want to try and use a workforce of six and then 50 and then a thousand. And I think within 3 months you'd be talking about, you know, 50,000 agents that can in parallel work for you. But it's very similar to trying to manage an organization. You're like, well, what's everyone doing? I don't know. It's getting really confusing. Are are people being productive? I can't tell. And so, you really have to start thinking hard about your org structure and your reporting structure to know if your agents are doing anything useful. And so
27:36I I really want our team here to get ahead of that and and start, you know, go ahead and burn the money but learn quickly and then we'll get get a handle on this is what I mean by the organizational singularity because the company starts to look less than less like an org chart and more like a continuously orchestrated intelligence network and that is such a big shift.
27:56It's like ridiculously big compared to everything we've ever done.
28:00I'll give you a hot take.
28:02Sorry. Go ahead, Alex.
28:03I I don't take Alex. Hot take. People love the hot takes. Um I I I don't think this is actually the interface of the future. So what's perhaps most interesting about Grockbot is it presents like a a messaging app like WhatsApp or iMessage where you have a pane of the the various agents that are in your fleet and you can have conversations with them and they can message each other and there's a computer use assistant angle. But I don't think that's how it scales. That's completely unscalable. If if agent-based
28:32scaling, if scaling the size of your fleet becomes one of the most essential scaling laws like inference time scaling has ended up being in the era of reasoning based models, we're not going to want to ask individuals or even enterprises to manage millions of agents. That that's completely unergonomic. We're going to want agents managing other agents. In which case the exercise of trying to graft a human organization or like the Slack or chatbased interface for humans managing
29:01other humans is not going to extend. We we'll look at this like vaudeville the vaudeville era of agents and say this was a naive attempt to graft human organizational structures onto humans managing agents. The only better manager for agents is other agents and this doesn't seem to fully internalize that lesson. Selene, what do you think about Alex's comment?
29:24Um, I think it's a I agree with Alex on the interface comment. This is it like an UI that's temporary. I love the way he says it presents like as if it presents like an illness. It presents like a a messaging app and I think that's a temporary one while we figure out new interfaces. But for now, that's a very workable one for coordinating a bunch of agents. We'll come up with all sorts of others. I think we'll go rotate through a whole set of these, but I think the his core comments are as usual with Alex are absolutely dead on.
29:52Yeah, it's maybe it's an illness for for which the medication that I prescribe is a good dosage of the the bitter lesson pill.
30:00Yeah. I also think this is what humans are ready to play with, right? I think I think that, you know, again, it's moving people along the process. if you provided something that was you know completely different uh I think there would be less adoption and so that's that's the the abstraction layer stack and Sam saying why are things so slow and the answer is people who are one or two layers up from you in the stack expect the old things so you have to abstract yourself in a familiar
30:30interface well it's also Peter it goes back to remember the comments we made about exponential technology become hits the vertical and goes up the near occur when it becomes usable. And what Elon's done with this layer is made AI agents usable to a big set of people. It'll change again as people become more used to it and they see what how the hell is operating. The architecture may not be great, etc. But for now, this is a powerful entry point.
30:58Yeah, I I agree. I just, you know, kudos to Elon and the Cursor team for making this happen. Uh, by the way, I invited Alex Finn to come back to the Abundance Summit in March, uh, since he's been doing a lot of amazing, you know, Grockbot videos. If you haven't seen his Grockbot videos yet, go and check them out. He'll teach you how to use it and what's special about it. And I said, Alex, if if Grockbot is still the hottest thing in March of 2027 at the Abundance Summit, teach that. If it's not, teach whatever is the latest hottest thing. But it's, you know, I
31:26think people need to be using these agentic systems. Um, I'm still using Hermes and Grockbot and um, hey, we'll see. Let's move on to our next conversation, uh, which is Google is back. So, Google's Gemini 3.7 Flash just took the top spot on AI AA analyst agent benchmark, the gold standard for measuring how well AI models handle complex real world data analysis tasks.
31:53Across 80 tasks in 14 business and scientific domains, Gemini 3.7 Flash delivered the highest overall accuracy while completing tasks up to 90% faster and then took top models 2.4 times faster than the GPT 5.6 Terra. So on the AA uh analyst agent benchmark which we're showing on the slide here uh Gemini 3.7 flash achieved a 60% pass rate beating Claude Opus 5 at 54% and
32:21Fable 5 at 49%. So, Alex, um, you know, many times, you know, you've said, others have said, you know, Gemini is dead. Uh, let's read the epitap, counting them out of the frontier model race. They've now shipped the fastest, most accurate agent model in the world. And by the way, we've seen this over and over again, right? We saw Meta was dead.
32:43What the heck is Meta doing? And then it comes out with its models. XAI is is is out of the race and they come back. So, to me, it seems like uh none of these players are out of the race. They're maybe in stealth mode. They're holding back, but they're coming back with a with a fast, furious uh punch to try and take the top position. What do you make of this, Alex?
33:03Do you want me to reassure you that Google still has a chance, or do you want me to to give you the the facts unvarnished?
33:09Yeah, you got there pretty hard. Defend yourself, Alex.
33:12Okay, so I I'll give you the unvarnished case here. Uh Google's still out of the running for the capability frontier. I was looking at this expect that okay scratching my head like Gemini 3.7 flash is nowhere near the the top of the capability frontier. So why is it doing so well on this one benchmark uh artificial analysis analyst agent? So you have to look at the benchmark itself. So the benchmark itself this is a benchmark for agents ability to
33:40perform quantis on real world spreadsheets and docs. But wait for it, its metric for success is the share of questions answered correctly on all five attempts. So th this is a benchmark that is fine-tuned for reliability. It rewards agents that give the same answer, basically the same answer every time and obviously want it to be the right answer, but it penalizes stochasticity. It penalizes in some
34:09sense creativity. Maybe we don't want creativity out of our analysts. I don't know. But it it it promotes reliability uh and determinism. Uh interestingly, there's no time constraint. I had to check that as well to see. But I I think you can see in this uh where Google fell off the capability frontier. At least I So I'll give you my conspiracy theory for what this one outperformance on this one benchmark suggests. I think that maybe what's been going on this obviously there are a few other factors
34:39but I think Google uh Google deep mind has been under material pressure to optimize their models for two things largely owing to Google search. So if if we rewind the the video to several months ago or a year ago, people were hand ringing, oh, isn't Google, aren't the 10 blue links going to face an existential threat from all of these frontier models and chat bots and reasoning agents that can just replace the need to Google at all? And Google's
35:07response was uh to self-disrupt by building the Gemini series or at least some flash variants thereof directly into the one boxes. But people expect Google search results to be very fast, low latency, and they expect them to be very reliable, not returning wildly different or unpredictable answers each time. And I think those two pressures from the desire to embed Gemini inside Google search have optimized through competitive internal pressures for
35:36probably scarce compute. The Gemini models, especially like Flash, note that there's no Gemini 3.7 Pro anywhere. It's just Flash. It's small, it's fast, and it's reliable. I think this is overoptimized for clock speed, like wall clock speed and determinism. And as a result, it does well on the one benchmark that rewards highly reliable answers and underperforms. Yeah, it's benchmaxing for basically spreadsheet analysis to be highly reliable.
36:09Um, yeah, I kind of agree with that a little bit with Alex. Uh I think the Gemini models the way they are used now is for organizing data like you can track any type of modality of data and flash is a perfectly decent model but it's not as good as the Chinese models especially the new GLM flash that's just come out that's 10 times cheaper for the same performance. Um Google did do a preview of Gemini 3.5 Pro but it just couldn't keep up. This is kind of a key
36:38thing and you can't accuse them of not having enough compute or it being a scarce resource. They literally have millions of chips. I think it's more been about turnover and some institutional malaise coming in that they can't push through to this frontier level cuz Google has all the data in the world. It has the links of what people search for. It has Gemini as a captive thing. But you know, has the Gemini app advanced at all? Not really. The only real place I think you've seen
37:06innovation on the AI side is somewhat the kind of AI studio stuff is decent and the notebook LM stuff is continuing to be fantastic. But aside from that, again, they've been falling behind in everything except for omnimodal um and video. They're still actually quite accurate. But even then, the Chinese are coming for their lunch. Like why not just post train on Chinese models at this point if you're Google?
37:29It may come to that. I I think people don't realize how compute starved Google is though internally. I mean, this has been widely reported. You think Google has all of the the compute, the the CPUs, the TPUs, and the GPUs in the world. It's been widely reported at this point. They they have internal regular meetings to try to aortion out their scarce compute. And that the three main constituencies in inside Google that are fighting for for the flops are one, Google Cloud Platform, which is basically fighting on behalf of external
37:58users. Two, Google DeepMind that's fighting for training and inference flops. And then three, Google search uh at which is needs its own flops especially as search becomes more intelligent. So so my again my theory of the case here is there actually is resource starvation inside Google and as a result we talked about this over and over again every company is comput starved at this point. There is no company that's got enough compute. So what makes I mean Google's got more compute than anybody at this point. They're just distributing
38:27it across all of their products and services. Critically, Google has other consumers fighting for their own compute internally besides AI. Whereas, if you're open AI or anthropic, no, you don't have any other nonAI users fighting for it.
38:42Google's landing like 3 million TPUs this year. Like I think there's relative levels of compute constraint like we've got a 100,000 chips versus a million chips versus 10,000 to train a frontier level or close to frontier level let's say better than Gemini model today needs 2 to 4,000 TPUs and the evidence of that is the Chinese did it and they open sourced them and we know exactly how they're built given Google's data that
39:10goes into Gemini Flash applying exactly the same architecture as GLM or Kimmy, you should have a better outcome. But they're not doing that for some reason. And that doesn't require 10,000 100,000 chips. It requires That's a really important point about it's like it's Yeah. 2 to 4,000 GPUs for 60 to 90 days.
39:29That is a microscopic investment by Google standards. So it's exactly right. It has nothing to do with compute dominance and everything to do with talent attrition. It's a great point.
39:38No, but this is institutional failure, isn't it? Because again, you know how to build a Kimmy model. you know how to build a GLM model and so if Google take the data that they put into Gemini and copied the exact model architecture you should have a better model on the other side and if you don't you have to ask real questions why well and then then think about it from the person's career point of view like the ego blow like you would have to be I'm the most wellunded top AI engineer in the world and the
40:06Chinese just kicked my ass to go tell my boss you know what I give up let's go download Kimmy do the rational thing and then tune it, you know, you can't say that because you you look like an idiot and that's where they are. You know, people are leaving in droves to try and get a clean start and a fresh sheet of paper and but yeah, you just got bypassed with massive advantages and resources.
40:26So guys, you can't admit it in the US closed labs, right, between OpenAI, Anthropic um and uh and Google and XAI. Who's in the best position here? I mean who's got now or two years in the future now? Questionic.
40:45Yeah, right now anthropic has the strongest forgetting about price or perform or you know time wall clock anthropic has the strongest model that's generally available fable 5 there are hordes not I'm not speaking about model in terms of positioned with compute and the speed at which they're deploying models and their ability to you know uh to I guess continue their their dominance.
41:10Um, well, here's the thing, Peter. There's no easy answer because Anthropic is in the best position by far and hordes of very talented people are going there purely because they want to see the singularity emerge. Like, it's it's like the birth of the phoenix. I want to be there on that day, but they're totally reliant on Elon for the compute. Elon can rip the soul out of anthropic any day. And he's got the cursor guys now. He spent $60 billion getting them. They're brilliant and they're starting to roll out cool stuff and they're starting to do the training.
41:38So, yeah. you know, if you said two years in the future, then it's really tricky because Anthropic and Elon are like, I don't know. It's it's a really interesting risk.
41:46I just want to give our listeners an understanding of sort of the, you know, sort of the terrain out there. Uh, we've got, you know, the the US labs competing against each other and the Chinese labs continually pummeling them. We're going to talk about that in a moment. So, uh, yeah, I mean, anthropics the most advanced, but their compute, uh, they don't own their compute, which is a problem.
42:06I would disagree with anthropic being the most advanced.
42:10Open AAI. Open AAI aside from the Chinese labs owned the Pareto Frontier. From Luna now being free to everyone to again as a mathematician GPT 5.6 Pro is the only quality math model. I have no idea what magic they're doing with Fable to actually get math results because it makes so many mistakes.
42:31Yeah. Yeah. Totally right.
42:33GPT 5.6 Pro is the only proper frontier model.
42:35Totally right. Yeah. We switched over to Soul actually. Everybody over here is like, "God, this fable has lost its mind." But but you know, the the argument there is that, well, inside Anthropic, they have Mythos 2 now. So, they're another level ahead and they won't release it to us. Oh, maybe. We can't tell. But for our use case, you know, on hard problems, hard engineering and hard math, yeah, we switched everything over to soul. So totally agree am even if it was Methos 2 again you would see them releasing lowhanging breakthroughs which the OpenAI have done
43:04with Astra and OpenAI again have lined up the compute they have more capital raised than Anthropic they had the 120 billion round so they can burn a few years of market capture they have the consumer now moving to enterprise with enterprise shifting and I think Anthropic for all of their talent and their access to GPUs actually Google just built them a gigantic TPU like million in deployment. Um, they're shooting themselves in the foot from an institutional perspective because Opus 5
43:32is unpleasant. Fable is unpleasant to use. And I don't think it's going to get more pleasant to use.
43:38Yeah. Didn't Alex say he he actively hates Opus 5?
43:44I I did say I I don't like Opus 5. I I prefer Fable 5, but I I think the the truth on the frontier is materially more nuanced. Like again if you look emot for example at Frontier Math Tier 4 it it is the case that Fable 5 outperforms ironically OpenAI's latest solid model even though OpenAI was the primary sponsor behind Epic developing the Frontier Math tier 4 model. So I I think the the truth you know is a little bit blurry in part because the Frontier isn't zero dimensional. It's it's a
44:14oneplus dimensional frontier where if you're willing to pay a lot uh and wait a long time for fable 5 to do something it's impressive but if you're resource starved cash starved time starved then you can probably get better performance at a different point on the optimal cost frontier by say using salt. I just want to point out to everybody listening, it's not it's not obvious, right? There there is uh a lot going on and then
44:41we're seeing China constantly leap frog. So, you I have a I have a hot take. These frontier labs are facing the innovators dilemma from hell, right? We talked about this before because you've got the Chinese open source models from one angle, compute constraints on another angle, and you've got government regulatory on a third angle. this is like a nightmare while everybody else is moving quickly with open source models.
45:06So, this is a very difficult place to be. And the good news is you can see um that they're all trying to get into certain verticals and get into revenue streams as fast as possible to reduce that dependence on the frontier model and being the edge as their core innovator's capability.
45:23I mean the abundance take on this is we as the consumers and the users are the beneficiary. It's demonetizing very rapidly at the same time that it's expanding.
45:33When Frontier Labs compete, you win.
45:36Yes, we all win. All right, I'm going to move us on. Uh we've been saying for some time on this pod that the US needs a powerful openweight model to contend with what's coming out of China. And this week, Nvidia is stepping up, pouring $6 billion into developing an open-source AI model and inference infrastructure designed to give US developers a domestic alternative Alibaba, Deepseek, and Kimmy. The deal struck between Nvidia and the AI startup Poolside aims to build one of the
46:04world's most powerful openweight models. By building its own opin, Nvidia is moving up the stack. We've discussed this from silicon to software positioning itself not just as a chipmaker for AI but as a platform provider for openweight uh ecosystems.
46:20You know from my point of view it looks like everybody's going up and down the stack. Uh we've seen anthropic we've seen open AAI obviously uh SpaceX AI uh is doing the same. Immod let's go to you first. What are your thoughts on Nvidia and Poolside? Yeah. So, I've been talking to some of the investors out here like at this um tech barbecue conference who invested in Poolside originally. They tried to raise $2 billion at the end of last year.
46:46So, who is Poolside? First of all, uh Poolside is a company. I believe it was the ex GitHub.
46:52Yeah. The former CTO of GitHub, former CTO, Issa Kant um and others. They set up and they wanted to originally create a coding model. Then they moved to an open-source model and model factory called Lagona that outperformed uh Thinking Machine's Inkling model when it first came out.
47:10They tried at the turn of the no a few months ago to raise $2 billion for a massive Blackwell cluster and they couldn't. So they lost that cluster and they were like this is the table stakes we need. But they built a really great solid open-source model for its size.
47:26And so now what they've done is they've benefited from this weird Nvidia um aqua hire type thing where Nvidia is like we need to build great open- source models to increase demand for our technology on the Neatron stack. So the first thing they did actually was they hired and I don't think it's been announced yet Ashish Viswani's team from Essential AI.
47:46um he was one of the founders of the um one of the authors on the attention is all you need paper and now they're going to be making more and more acquisitions up and down the open source stack to be the leader in open source because again that drives demand for the GPUs more than anything um so I think this is just the first or well not the first this is the main one but there'll be many more acquisitions and they'll have a full open-source stack uh this is the Neatron coalition so a lot of the classic ones like Mistral and Coher and others won't
48:15be building open source models anymore. They'll be building to the Nvidia reference design.
48:21Alex, I think maybe I I I could say something nice about the American open-source community uh and openweight models moving in a positive direction.
48:31Obviously, Nvidia had invested I think about a billion dollars in this company previously and now through this I'd call it a acquisition now they're they're finally sort of uh turbocharging their own Neotron community. more interesting to me that acquisitions or concerning perhaps that acquisitions still need to happen in this day and age. It's also I I think bizarre if if you follow some of the recent acquisitions, the my original take on this was this is just an an
49:00attempt to avoid regulatory scrutiny or antitrust scrutiny. But I've started to see now some of the other acquisition targets come back to life. the what I had sort of left for dead as the carcass of the original company where all of the the founding team comes over and all of the core IP was quote unquote non-exclusively licensed which I think my understanding was was the case here as well where Nvidia is non-exclusively licensing key poolside IP. I will be watching closely what happens to the
49:29part of poolside that did not come to Nvidia. I I think my original expectation that this is just a carcass left over after the hunt that is being left behind purely to avoid regulatory scrutiny may actually have life to it and not investment advice but could actually be in some sense even more interesting than the part that goes over to Nvidia.
49:49I mean there's a lot of pressure for the US to develop top tier open-source platforms right now. Uh Dave, what are you what's your take?
49:56Yeah, curious Alex, you said kind of quickly there. surprised that acquisitions need to exist in this day and age. But I got calls from both Merur and from Orin, our good buddy Kush Bavaria, who was on the pod a week ago, uh, looking for acquisition targets to accelerate. You know, that the hiring cycle is too slow. I need groups of three, 10, 15 people that work really well together. I don't care what it costs. Like, send them to me tomorrow.
50:21So, it seems to be, you know, at least in terms of my inbound, like an all-time high in acquisition. Why do you think it should be a thing of the past?
50:28Well, so I I would distinguish between talent acquirers or aqua hires on the one hand, which are largely about getting talent and hackqua hires with an H that are about at least ostensibly avoiding antitrust scrutiny. So if you're Nvidia and you want to hackwhire, say Poolside, you're you're going the Hackquire route rather than just doing an honest to goodness either asset acquisition or uh or conventional acquisition of Poolside because you you want to argue no actually we're just a
50:57licency of Poolside rather than the acquirer. No, we're leaving a competitive open-source model layer blah blah blah. This is not tying blah blah blah. That that's the argument and principle for acquisition.
51:09Gotcha. I got a very specific answer to that too. You remember the windsurf deal, you know, of course that of course. Um, so here's the here's the constraint. So the the FTC is very very friendly to acquisitions right now. Uh, and and things tend to move quickly and easily. On the other hand, the timeline for AI companies is so short that the statutory 30-day review alone is like a lifetime.
51:32And and you know, all these mega companies like a big one like Nvidia is always going to get a second look, which is usually 60 90 days. So you're like, "Forget it. Let me just slap together any type of deal that doesn't need that regulatory review and just help, you know, train the freaking billion dollar model or $6 billion model. That's all I need. Let's go." And then they can, you know, close the deal like Elon did with Curser. Close the deal many months later, uh, after an HSR review and after the 90 days or, you know, sometimes it's even longer than that, but there's a
52:02statutory 30 days that they just can't get around. And that's you're smirking over there. What's up on you? No, no, I think Dave's got it exactly right. I think that's what's going on here. This is just purely juggling the regulatory um hurdles and obstacle courses.
52:17But going back, there's one little wrinkle on this. So the remaining company actually has something called poolside infrastructure company which is building a 1.2 gawatt data center which might need GPUs. So they may use some of the money that they get for GPUs. Who knows? You know, complicated. The other the other point here is the verticalization of companies, right? So I mean XAI SpaceX AI is the ultimate verticalization out there today. Uh but here we see uh
52:45Nvidia, we've seen Enthropic and OpenAI also designing their own chips. Um does every one of these companies ultimately become you at least two layers if not three layers?
52:57In other words, does Anthropic get a space station?
53:00Or a moon colony? uh you know I think they'll be the only company left amongst all the governments. Is that what we learned? Uh they'll be American GDP. That's why I think probably I mean I I'm asking the question seriously like does Anthropic get a moon colony? Yeah, probably. Does Anthropic get a a pharmaceutical arm?
53:21Yeah. Already. So yes.
53:25All right. I I think that you've got actually thinking about our discussion earlier, you have a split of innovation versus execution. And so these are the two model splits that are occurring.
53:34Execution drives the majority of the economy short-term, innovation longer term. And the verticalization is ideal for the execution phase. So if you look at the architecture of Jalapeno, if you look at where things are going, like you're going to get closer and closer to the silicon, you'll get closer and closer to the customer and you won't need much better models than you have now. Whereas the frontier will be a different story where you still need to have very complicated things occurring.
54:03Yeah. I I I would maybe uh if I had to uh I guess extrapolate, I think there is a probably Don't hold me to this.
54:12There's probably a natural verticalization at the infra layer. Not necessarily at the application layers, but at the infra layer for physics and other reasons. There are natural reasons why say a company that offers a frontier model probably wants to be in the data center infra business, probably wants to be in the energy business, probably wants to be in the satellite business.
54:33These are all like innermost loop type businesses. Robotics business, there are such natural synergies among all of the the different innermost loop stages. probably there's some natural vertical integration there.
54:45I'm going to move us along here. So, three stories this week that chronicle the challenges being faced by the US closed frontier labs uh who are under siege from faster cheaper Chinese openweight alternatives. So, the first story comes from Moonshot AI, not related to the Moonshots podcast, the Chinese lab that's making Kimmy. So, last week discussed how access to memory is becoming the real roadblock on all of this growth. It's not GPUs, it's memory.
55:12Especially in the agentic age. This week, Moonshot AI released Kimmy linear, a new architecture that cuts context memory by 75% while still delivering 6x faster decoding for a 1 million token context window. Uh, Moonshot AI just dropped this and it's running and in a single move, uh, an improvement of 75%. So, that's the first story. Uh the second story uh on this block comes from the Financial Times that reports that Fable
55:415, Anthropic's flag flagship model is now struggling to attract users. It's effectively plateaued. And the reason is simple. Cheaper Chinese ope models are eating the market from bottom up. And when the model cost 14 cents per million tokens compared and delivers 80% of the capability compared to 15 bucks, the market chooses the less expensive option. At least the majority of the market does. Fable 5 is not losing because it's bad. It's losing because
56:11it's overpriced relative to the openweight alternatives. The third story, then we'll talk about this, is that Enthropic this week reversed its data retention policy ahead of its IPO, letting enterprise customers keep data on their own cloud infrastructure rather than anthropic servers. Uh, this move, you know, handles the biggest objection that corporate buyers have when adopting claud. So, I don't think the timing is accidental. You know, they're about to go into IPO mode. I think it's predicted
56:39for as early as 6 weeks from now. uh and the growth requires enterprise adoption and the enterprise adoption requires data sovereignty. So gentlemen, three stories here. Kimmy linear uh you know uh the challenges that Fable is having and the changes that Anthropic made on its data retention and policy. Dave, you want to jump in first? Well, this is where we're going to find out if Daario has what it takes to be a public company CEO because, you know, he's a he's a
57:08brilliant, good-natured AI researcher thrust into this. And when he gets interviewed, he said, "I never expected to be a CEO at all. Uh, but here I am."
57:16So now he's stuck with this uh missing revenue numbers because he's embargoing like the the current policy or the prior policy was even if you're hosting your Fable 5 on Amazon Bedrock in a secure environment, everything still has to go to anthropic headquarters for 30 days for us to review and make sure you're not making a virus or a bomb or something. And that's the only way this is safe. So now he's missing revenue numbers because corporations don't want to give their proprietary secrets to any
57:45company that they don't know well you know for 30 days and so they're rushing to the Chinese models and secure environments and they're also now you can get you can get GPT soul also inside a secure environment where it doesn't get transmitted to open AI so you can you can use that too. So, I was like, "Oh god, corporations hate this, but I don't want to miss my revenue numbers. I want to go public." On the other hand, I really don't think it's safe. I need I feel like I need to inspect everything
58:14to know that it's safe. So, now he's he's stuck between a rock and a hard place. It's a tough place to be. But being a public company CEO is always like that. It's really really stressful and really hard. So, we'll see if he if he has what it takes to do it.
58:29Iman, what do you think of Kimmy Lineer?
58:31Yeah, I mean first we banned the faster silicon from China. So they built models to take advantage of cheap DRAM.
58:43Then the DAM became expensive. So then they figured out better mechanisms of linear retention of caching and more more dense models etc. And now um you've just seen actually uh just a couple of hours ago this new uh 01 stealth model that's been tearing up the benchmarks turned out to be a GLM model served entirely on Chinese chips with trillions of tokens a day these new Huawei chips.
59:08So I think you know you'll see the adoption of these Chinese models and them moving to where the market is on different form factors of different chips and again memory is 50% of all spending now. It is the scarce resource.
59:21You can't upgrade it. So guess what? In a couple of months time, at the very least, given the pace of Chinese models, they won't need much memory. That's how fast they innovate. On the fable uptake, it's entirely a Zero data retention issue. Like as a corporation, you cannot leave your data on anthropic side. And they realize this. But Anthropic should not IPO.
59:46If you are in the late stages of AGI now, Anthropic should do a giant freaking raise like Open did of 120 billion and have a straight shot at AGI.
59:56That's what they should do and they should stay private like that's a fascinating thought. Yeah. I mean, why why are they racing to an IPO?
1:00:04It makes absolutely no sense to me. Like Dario owns 2% of the company as does his seven co-founders. They don't care about dilution. They're worth like still 67 billion each and they don't care about money. They pledged to give away 90% of it. Why would you IPO? I can see no reason for that unless they can't actually privately, which I think they can.
1:00:23I have an answer. They need the capital to get compute.
1:00:27Well, but but they could raise the capital. I I bet you people would throw money at a drop.
1:00:32So, I've been talking I've been talking to investors and Dave, this will be interesting for your perspective. Nobody knows how to price this thing because they don't haven't secured long-term compute like OpenAI has or that natively Groc or uh Gemini has. Therefore, they're this is why the way to our earlier point, this is why people are verticalizing because if you're at one layer and the bottleneck goes down below you or above you, you're screwed. So, you have to have access to the whole
1:01:00layer to stop to have continual progress.
1:01:04Yeah. So that's but even if they had the money to buy compute where are they going to buy it from?
1:01:09There's not enough compute being manufactured.
1:01:11Wait before we get to that there's a SEM is right but it's much more specific than that. Like Daario uh got ripped by Alex Karp. We showed the video on this podcast. He got absolutely ripped to shreds. And Alex Karp is saying look you cannot give your alpha. You cannot give your weights to this company anthropic.
1:01:31You cannot trust them with your corporate intellectual property. You're talking about an academic never run anything before in his life guy taking your intellectual property and then preaching to you how the government should be run in the future. Don't trust him. So he just ripped him to shreds.
1:01:46You can't. So Dario's now he can't react to that by saying, "You know what? I'm going to delay my IPO and do some private financing." And like you're playing right into Alex's hands if you wuss out on your IPO plans. like he's just going to reinforce Alex's, you know, Karp's me message horrifically.
1:02:03And the board members, like look at the board members at Anthropic. They've marked up those venture funds to massive valuations and use those valuations to raise new funds. So they're not going to just sit there and say, "Yeah, Dario, you know, go do, you know, put it off indefinitely." That's that's fine. So he he's like, "This is the stress test for Daario. He can't he can't just wuss out right now." And that that signaling would be terrible.
1:02:28Alex, AWG, your thoughts, please. I'm sure.
1:02:31Okay. Well, first on on the the race to IPO, I think there's also a race element. I think there was a starting gun a few months ago between SpaceX Open AI and Anthropic. And I think if I'm anthropic on top of the arguments that everyone else here has already raised, there's a competitive element of you don't necessarily want to be the last to IPO. The market wins could change. Right now, it's a relatively warm and friendly capital market for IPO. So to the extent there's a window for raising the largest IPO sum in human history, I think you go
1:03:00for it. But to the earlier points uh in lightning round succession, Kimmy linear, we've known about Kimmy linear attention since last fall, I think it's it's suggestive, as I've suggested in the past, ship of thesis style transform architecture is getting incrementally replaced piece by piece. It's interesting in so far as it's a successful linear architecture. Many have tried to linearize the infamously quadratic attention mechanism. Looks like KLA may be one of the first at
1:03:29least openly linearized attention or quasillinearized. There's a recurrence mechanism in there as well. So that's kind of interesting. We've known about that for a while. Fable 5 struggling.
1:03:39That is interesting because I I've made the point on the pod in the past that Open AAI made a strategic blunder in pandering to consumers rather than to enterprises thinking that consumers would be hungry users of reasoning tokens and they just weren't. The the consumers didn't know what to do with all of these shiny OpenAI reasoning tokens, but enterprises did. And then OpenAI had to do this painful pivot over to enterprise and turn everything into codecs and probably delay their IPO as a
1:04:09result. So Fable 5, which is at least by my accounting the strongest most frontiest model in the world right now to the extent that it's struggling to generate revenue and uptake. I want to interpret that. I want to construe that as the enterprises of the world almost falling prey to the same thing consumers with open AI did which is this may maybe will be construed as victim blaming but it's not. Our economy isn't worthy. It's
1:04:38not clever or wealthy or successful enough on average to know how to use Fable 5 on average properly. Just like consumers didn't know how to use reasoning tokens from open AI and as a result open AI had to pivot. I think this is the beginning signs of anthropic being forced to do some sort of pivot.
1:04:58It could be radically uh reducing the the cost of their models. That's one direction. Or I think the more exciting model uh the more exciting trajectory is some new use case getting unlocked in the next year that actually motivates the usage of this nosebleleed priced high end of the frontier which is at the moment fable 5 or depending on the reports you read maybe fable 5.1 may be starting to leak out. And then very
1:05:26quickly on Anthropic and their data retention policy. Anthropic was so clever, I think, in being the first Frontier Lab from America to enable their Frontier models to be hosted by third-party hyperscalers rather than having to host them themselves. And by some reporting, 40% of Anthropic's revenue now comes from Anthropic models being hosted not by Anthropic, but by third party cloud hyperscalers. So I I think this is just another step to
1:05:56externalizing the hosting of their model. Yeah, sure it's painful. This data retention policy I view is largely security theater. I don't think it's that valuable in the long term. I don't think it's useful in the long term. But starting to move more and more of the the infra layer over to third parties so that users of Claude can get Claude where and when they want on the infra they want. That's powerful. And you see now open AI copying Anthropic and doing that.
1:06:25What do you guys make of the, you know, the idea that the open source Chinese models are good enough and at a, you know, dimminimous fraction of the price and companies are beginning to shift in that direction, saying we're not going to use Fable 5, it's too expensive.
1:06:41Dave, is that an experience you're having?
1:06:43Yeah. No, everybody needs the absolute best AI they can get. You can't go down a notch, but the Chinese models aren't down a notch. They're they're absolutely on the frontier. You won't even notice the difference in any use case. So, it's not about trying to use something inferior at a lower cost. It's about the they're just as good. So, and and now they're all good enough to improve themselves, too. So, if you start a group within your company that's using these models, you can start improving it inside your company if you get the talent. And and so, that's like a
1:07:12runaway train, you know? I I I think that's what's really going on. It's not it's not compromising to save a few pennies. It's like, wow, we can control our own destiny and be on the frontier at the same time.
1:07:24I mean, I don't think it's a few pennies, right? Like Fable scores 60 on the artificial analysis benchmark. The new GLM model flash that dropped today scores 57 and it is like 100 times cheaper.
1:07:39Yeah. one which which is I think is really important because you know the when you deploy these things the cost benefit is so high that you might say well I don't even care about the cost but then you say oh wait if I use the Chinese version I can have a thousand or you know this is why the swarm is such a big deal you can afford five or 10,000 concurrent Chinese operators instead of one anthropic well I think it's like it's like hiring a specialist you know like super genius
1:08:08versus a bunch of really smart people. And sometimes you're not smart enough to ask the super genius the right questions.
1:08:16Because maybe I'm not smart enough to ask Fable the right questions, but I'm just about smart enough to ask GPT 5.6 the right questions. Right.
1:08:23But also, you know, that analogy is perfect because people misuse their context window horribly, and I do too.
1:08:29Everybody does. But if you actually optimize the context window with the Chinese model, you'll get a smarter answer than if you're sloppy using a fable model. And so, you know, if you just put a little energy into your internal org design and optimize your use and, you know, then you can have thousands and thousands of these for, you know, a very low cost. And that's that's where the puck is going. I'm not sure how sustainable this this situation is. I I almost want to analogize it now to uh US importing generic drugs from
1:08:59Canada. the the drugs get invented in the US, they get manufactured cheaply in Canada, and then at least historically, it's been the case that that you could get American drugs more cheaply from Canada by by importing on or off label than you could from American drugs. I I think the situation may be somewhat analogous here where these are US models, US reasoning traces. You see Chinese labs benefiting legally or illegally from the reasoning traces, from interacting with US models. And then just in the past 48 hours, we start
1:09:28to see stories of Chinese labs trying to strike partnerships with US hyperscalers to host the Chinese labs models on US infra but with a revshare from the inference costs going back to the Chinese front tier lab. So this is a case where US does whatever innovation is necessary data or post- training or whatever that there's a distillation maybe over to China. China sells it back to us but then we're using our own infra
1:09:57against ourselves at inference time against the training time. I think it's it's a perverse bind that we find ourselves in analogous to Chinese drug imports or sorry Canadian drug imports. All right, I'm not sure the Canadian drug import analogy holds very much longer given what's going on, but let's leave that aside.
1:10:14Yeah, it holds until about a year ago.
1:10:16I'm going to move us to a fun story on the dating front. So, a Berkeley startup called Ditto is playing Cupid. Uh, Ditto is an app or a AI that has no feed, no swiping, no infinite scroll. uh you fill out a values questionnaire and then every Wednesday at 7 p.m. a text arrives with a match as well as a place and a time for you to meet your date. That's the entire product. You show up and see if the magic happens. Thus far, 160,000
1:10:44college students have signed up. Uh it's already produced 80,000 dates. The app does what Tinder and Hinge refuse to do.
1:10:52It removes choice. The entire dating industry is built on the premise that more options are better. But Ditto believes that too many options lead to, you know, decision fatigue, analysis paralysis, and then AI is the cure. The app does not ask you for a choice. It chooses for you. You know, this is sort of the old style matchmaker agent. You know, a yenta if you would, and it seems to be working. Uh, Seem, you know, you and I are are both married, but you
1:11:20know, it seems like it'd be a fun thing to go out and try.
1:11:23What are your thoughts?
1:11:24Two, so two or three things. I think this applied to non-dating would be really profound and we're actually looking at doing something like that for business connections. Uh but I think this is powerful because AI isn't adding an interface, it's deleting the interface, right? Tinder optimized searching and connections and so on, but this makes the searching unnecessary.
1:11:44And I think that's really a powerful user interface experience where people are going to go let the AI figure it out and then I'll do the connection and see if there's chemistry there or not, which you have to do anyway. By the way, let's note as a scarcity to abundance paradigm. When we were all growing up, sex had a scarcity paradigm. With Tinder, sex became abundant. Where the hell was that in our 20s is the obvious question. But you have to deal with that abundance in a different way. So, this is the really fascinating thing. I'll watch this very carefully to see where
1:12:14Yeah. This is the abundance thesis applied to to dating. Uh Dave, what do you make of it? Is this a company you would have backed?
1:12:21Oh, god. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely.
1:12:23But I think this is a stepping stone to AI helping you manage your life and your choices in general.
1:12:28Which I think is going to be if it's done right, it's going to be one of the greatest boounds to mental health in world history. If it's left to manipulate you, it's going to be horrible because it's such a great salesperson. So this is a good a good test case, you know, are we going to manage it well? Is it going to lead you to the right person? Is it going to try and help you? Or is it going to sell you on something that you don't want? So yeah, I've always said, you know, in the future, you know, advertising model's gone because your AI knows you so well.
1:12:58He's like, like, please just buy me the stuff I need. I don't want to. I'm in decision fatigue. I'm in data overwhelm.
1:13:04Just take care of it for me. Immod, your thoughts?
1:13:08Yeah, I I think there was a Black Mirror episode where, you know, for dating, you just sent your digital twins and then they did a bunch of dates just to test it out in like 2 milliseconds so you could tell whether or not you matched.
1:13:19It kind of again it feels like you're heading towards that but people are going to get to a point where it'll be like you can't argue with your AI it knows best right all watched over by machines of loving grace and you've got to be quite careful about that because you know it does take away a little bit from your intrinsic humanity if you outsource your cognition and connection in that way. Um, but you know, again, you're kind of feeling it already like uh with how much of your stuff you
1:13:47offload to these things. And I've been getting mad at like some of the colleagues and others like, you know, they're doing really good, but they started to slip into trusting the AI too much, you know, like sending something like this is human.
1:14:02I I think this is such an important point. There's a bigger pattern here where AI is becoming the trusted intermediary between uh individuals interfacing with overwhelming abundance right you're going to need that trust and interface and the question is do you want to outsource that trust by the way to your yenta comment Peter uh the Indian matchmaking industry is profoundly about to be disrupted by this because you could detail the cast the clothing requirements and salary requirements and boom off you go for the matches so this
1:14:32is going to be really interesting apply to that world uh an exponential organization come on diagn one.
1:14:40Alex, I think you're the only one amongst us not married. So, uh, you know, would you try this out?
1:14:46No. I I think this is why we can't have nice things. I think this is why. Have you seen the Ditto body count detector?
1:14:53Do you even know what I'm talking about?
1:14:56Okay. So, the the Ditto body count detector. This is I I would characterize as a politely suboptimal use of scarce reasoning tokens is a tool that Ditto released that uses, I'll quote from their website, 478 facial points and 52 micro expressions over 5 seconds to estimate how many sexual partners a person has had. This is where the reasoning tokens are going. This is low.
1:15:21Seriously, it's called the Ditto AI body count detector. Folks can check it out. Th this is I I view as a sub-optimal use of reasoning tokens when we could be, as you and I wrote, Peter, we could be solving everything. Yes, we could be solving everything and instead we're doing body count detection. So, this one gets a thumbs down for me.
1:15:39All right. Well, you know, the reality is that most people on these dating apps are looking at, you know, simply the external parameters of the individual.
1:15:49Are they handsome? Are they beautiful?
1:15:52Uh I I think part of it is how honest are you on the questionnaire? Uh and you know matchmaking does work you know throughout time and culture in across all cultures. Some of the longest lasting marriages come from being matched because it's going beyond just your initial hormonal response to the individual. Uh and I think there's something there. Whether or not it has sufficient data to actually, you know, align two people accurately is a different thing. Uh, but I think there's
1:16:21something there. But I do agree, Dave, that this applies to so many different areas. And and Sem, I know at at the Abundance Summit, right? We have 600 CEOs. Um, and we're, by the way, we're now 90% full for Abundance 2027. If you're interested, you can go to Abundance 360. Um, matching the CEOs, matching the entrepreneurs there is one of the most important things we do. uh and using AI to create those matches because randomly bumping into the right person among a a group of 600 people in
1:16:51five days is tough. So there is there is a value proposition to be had there.
1:16:57Social discovery I I do think is quite valuable if it's for socially productive or economically productive purposes. Social discovery for body count detection. I mean again this reminds me of Hot or Not back in the the early Facebook days. I I just think we could be aiming so much higher as a civilization than AI for this.
1:17:15Yeah. Listen, you know, the divorce rate in the United States is 50%. Which is crazy. And I think, you know, helping you discover the right person. Now, the parameters it uses may not be right, but if it were possible uh to help you find the best person, the best match for you, there's massive value, societal value in that. Uh that's my feeling. I don't know if you guys Yeah, I'd love to know, Alex, how you reconcile um this is a a waste of
1:17:44tokens. Uh we should be solving a disease.
1:17:46Not a waste, a suboptimal use.
1:17:48Okay. Okay. Because because one of the terms you've coined in this great revolution is patriot.
1:17:57What is that thing?
1:18:00Yeah. You can't even say it.
1:18:02No, no, that is Patricia Musa.
1:18:07Alex loves neologisms. If you haven't seen it, he's publishing new terminology for the singularity almost every day.
1:18:16You do you do need a token budget for for that concept, you know. So, how do how do you reconcile those two?
1:18:21That's what happens once we have a leisure class that can afford tokens too cheap to meter, which we don't yet have. So, may maybe the way I reconcile to make you happy, Dave, is I'd say save the body count detection until after we've solved everything. At at that point, do as much body count detection as you like.
1:18:37I like that. I like that view. I think once you've solved basically all major diseases, that's probably a good time to start.
1:18:43The line of the song is that once the day had been solved, the day hasn't yet been solved.
1:18:48Okay. All right, guys. I'm I'm going to move us on, but it's a it's a fascinating concept and uh I I hope Ditto works and there are many happy relationships that come out of it.
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1:20:02One more AI story before we move on to robotics. Um, and uh, it's a Wall Street Journal article that confirms what all of us are feeling that AI is making us work harder at a level like never before. I I joke people are talking about a three and four day work week and I've discovered a 9 and 10 day work week. So according to the Wall Street Journal, increased productivity from AI agents is creating more work for humans, not less. The agents produce more output, which requires more review, more
1:20:30decisions, more direction, and more human judgment per unit time. You know, the founder used to manage five tasks, now manages 50 agent outputs. The bottleneck has shifted from execution to judgment. The humans have become the bottleneck because the agents produce too much work for us lowly humans to evaluate. So this is a bizarre implication of abundance. Uh more intelligence produces more output which requires more human direction which produces more value which requires more
1:21:00work. So the work is not disappearing it's changing character from execution to judgment. See over to you pal.
1:21:09This is Jeban's paradox for human cognition right we thought AI would reduce workload instead. In fact it increased the the amount of work that is worth attempting. I will go to a little history here. When I first did the exo book, Peter, you and I did that together. It was three years of hell.
1:21:26Second book was two and a half years of hell. Third book was 6 months of a lot of joy, but damn overload on the cognitive workload. Right? So when you get this kind of AI slop in a sense for human cognition, really judgment and attention become absolutely paramount. So this becomes what we've done is essentially if 10 agents are reporting to a founder we've reinvented middle management it's inside
1:21:54your own brain right so this is this is it's going to cause a huge problem because you can't have machines operating in machine speed and requiring human approval on on that so I'm actually facing this from all the stuff I'm trying to do today you may be seeing the same thing with skippy so we need the better next breakthroughs need you need to be better delegation permission escalation crashes and we're actually designing that BCI maybe at the individual level but you know this is something we're actually seeing live as
1:22:22we do that pilot program where we work a bunch of companies through this process it's requiring a whole new threshold of escalation thresholds governance etc etc because companies need to decide what the machines may decide autonomously and what they want to manage later what it's audited what genuinely needs a human otherwise we're creating a totally crazy h future where AI's going to be working like 24/7 and humans are going to be obligated to work 24/7 to navigate that
1:22:50and keep pace of that. Right. So more capability more it does but more capability doesn't mean more freedom but but I'm actually I'm burning the candle 16s right now. I'm loving it but I'm not sure how long I can last at this pace and you guys aren't helping I will say.
1:23:08So can I just ask for you know Dave you know Em and Alex is it the same for all of you working harder than ever? God. Yeah, absolutely. And and I'll tell you what, you got to savor the moment because you know, Ahmad and Alex will tell you it's not going to last forever.
1:23:22And I you know what's really frustrating to me is actually I've been recruiting some incredibly talented people for quantum AI and we lost an MIT core 61 guy who just decided he's going to go to the Princeton PhD program and like do you listen to Ahmad and Alex you know and like you you guys have collectively like a 100 degrees and would you advise anyone right now to go into a PhD program and miss the singularity like no of course not but it's frustrating to to watch that happen because this moment
1:23:50we're in right now You can master a thousand AIs, 10,000 AIs, and you're the most valuable you'll ever be in human history right now because they won't do anything productive without your help. Uh, but a year or two from now, they may say, "Yeah, I don't need your help. You know, sorry, you know, don't need you anymore.
1:24:09Get out of the way."
1:24:10So, yeah, work your ass off right now because it may be the last chance that you have to actually be extremely valuable. So, I'm just savoring it. I'm working harder than ever by far, but savoring every minute of it. And I tell you, working with the eyes is genuinely fun, too. It's not like I'm, you know, moving boxes around or or grinding it out in a corn field. You know, this is like really, really fun. You're discovering the future.
1:24:36A friend of mine likes to say the Stone Age didn't end for a lack of stones. I I think this era that we find ourselves in is probably pretty brief. I know I'm getting approximately no sleep at at this point largely because almost all of my time is spent supervising and steering fleets of agents and I think this is a window. I don't think this will continue very much longer at most maybe one or two or 3 years at that point the AIS will be sufficiently self-
1:25:04steering that the role for humans in being kneedeep in steering large fleets I think probably erodess to to a dimminimous role. So, isn't that an argument for just like, you know, lay down, relax, enjoy yourself for three years, and then jump in three years from now?
1:25:19No, it's an argument for work your tail off for three years and then go lie on the beach.
1:25:25I mean, if nothing else motivates you, every year millions of people die needlessly and if we just get, you know, three months shaved off that timeline by working our asses off, millions of people will exist forever that otherwise wouldn't exist.
1:25:36Beautifully said. If that doesn't motivate you, Amad, you got to put a clip in here, too. This is the most important thing we've ever recorded. So, What what are your thoughts on this?
1:25:44No, I mean like the amount of leverage you can do per unit of your attention now is more than has ever been. And I think as Alex said, it probably ever will be. Like you're approaching the last human discoveries. You're approaching the last point of being able to deploy and control these things. And I think again like you have a limited focused attention budget. That's why you're getting tired. Maybe to try and coin theology maybe it's cognithology you know cognitive lethargy that we're
1:26:12facing here from my own side you know I've written now like two books in the last year I've done a massive amount of research and I've been in a flow with hundreds of agents but like last week I stopped I couldn't do any more research cuz I had to go and take this out to the world now so we're doing like a big funding round we're launching lots of new things we'll be releasing all the research finally and I turned off my agents that were doing all the research.
1:26:38Like I've set them on to auto mode. No more mad stuff and they're coming up with things still, but like I can only read it once a week. I've actually made it so I can't do it. And I think you can shift between these modes of work because you can't be on all the time because it does burn you out. But at the same time, if you get in the right flow, then you can do more than you've ever done before. And like I said, I can't imagine like I would say on this podcast straight up, don't do a PhD. If you're thinking about doing a PhD, don't do one. Peter Theal paid all these people not to do PhDs.
1:27:08Well, not to do college degrees, let alone PhDs. I would say you not even do a college degree. Like what will you get out of it right now? You will go and you will learn a very specific thing when you should be learning agency. Like a fellowship of the type of people who do that will go way bigger than they've ever gone before. And you know parents might kind of complain and things but show them what you create. Gather people, humans and agents.
1:27:32A skeptic would say, "All right, Amhod, you went where? Oxford, as I recall.
1:27:37Alex, you you you went where? Harvard and MIT. Dave, you went where? MIT?
1:27:41Peter, you went where? MIT? Harvard?"
1:27:44And and so on. Like, okay. So, you're pulling the you're pulling the vertical mobility ladder up behind you and it's fine to tell everyone else who's just coming up, h don't bother with higher education, don't bother with credentialitis, just go off and do your startup. And yet, we didn't follow that.
1:28:00We didn't have that time. We did.
1:28:02It was a different type. It was a different type that just makes you more credible in what you're saying than I I would actually say I think undergraduates still a lot of fun and you don't really have Elon said this. It's a social experience but it's adult daycare.
1:28:16It's adult daycare. So, it's actually great for using massive amounts of agents. PhDs though, I don't get, you know, especially like I I feel sorry for I talked to a bunch of my buddies who are math PhDs and a couple of them had like problems solved in the recent batch. Like they don't even know what they're going to do. Every verifiable domain PhD now is under massive threat.
1:28:36Why would you even do it or even consider it? I agree. I was speaking I was speaking a few days ago to a government funded AI for physics center filled with PhDs uh current PhDs and recent PhDs in physics. And I I leveled with them. I said physics is cooked and you should probably be reconsidering all of your career trajectories and consider any advice to the contrary. Give that a a double think as it were before you
1:29:04just go and follow some zombie pattern. Well, I think this is the most important conversation we've had we've had yet. We spoke to them this and I spoke the heck out of them.
1:29:15Well, getting people to think is the most important. Um, you know, why are you doing a PhD? A lot of people are doing a PhD because they're they told their mom and dad they're going to do it or their sibling did it or they thought that was what they needed in life. And I think or actually in a lot of cases about 5 years ago before anyone knew the singularity was coming, they started working their ass off toward that. and and you've been working so hard in for so long and then you get in and it's like I I got in but now now the idea
1:29:43that suddenly it's irrelevant or you shouldn't be doing it is so hard to take after you work so hard to get there but you got to pivot. You got to you got to just recognize the moment get into your Stanford PhD and say okay I I checked that box and now I'm gonna jump into a company. Um, oh well. It's uh it's important for people to realize the world is very different than it was before. All right, I'm going to move us forward. Uh, this is a conversation we've had before. Uh, two stories on the
1:30:13data center debacle. The first story is about public sentiment. So, a year ago and then again this month, a year later, Heatmap News pulled Americans about data centers. A year ago, Americans were split 43 to 42 on whether they oppose data centers being built near them.
1:30:30Today, the opposition has risen to 75% with 61% saying they are strongly opposed. Also this week, Senator Bernie Sanders once again called for a nationwide moratorum. The second story is about a post on X that went viral about data center waterm. We've talked about this on the pod before. Here's the data on on people uh against data centers. It's been increasing uh you know almost I guess it's a linear increase but it's going to asmtote near
1:31:00100%. Um and the post on the water center the water data use um the data center water use uh it was pretty damning. So here are the numbers. Data centers are at 627 million gallons per day. Sounds like a big number, but compare it to, you know, golf courses at two billion, three times as much, or power plants at 133 billion, or growing
1:31:27cattle at 137 billion. You know, the fact matter is that, you know, the tech industry is a trust problem. And I I think we've talked about this before. If I were a hyperscaler building a data center, uh I would do this very different. I would promise, you know, we're going to put education programs in the schools. We're going to, you know, make the cost of energy in your community lower than it is today. And we're going to make these data centers not look like ugly boxes. We're going to
1:31:56make them look like cathedrals. I mean, spending an extra 10%. Uh, I don't know why that's not going on right now.
1:32:05My worry is that that wouldn't help. My fear is that this isn't because people think data centers are unsightly or uh unesthetic. My my concern is that it's being overly politicized in part through the worst case scenario which would be foreign interference. There are a number of US adversaries who would love nothing more than to slow down America's data center buildout. We talk about at least one of them all the time on this pod. So
1:32:33my concern would be that we look back in a year or two and see that some quantum of this opposition to data center construction is actually the result of popular sentiment being stoked by foreign adversaries.
1:32:45Okay, agreed, Alex. But um why isn't the you know you can counterveail that when I was on with with Michael Katios I said why isn't the White House getting out in front of this and you know because it's an issue that is gaining steam. people can see this. The second thing is you can counter that by saying, listen, like this is what Zuck said in this video last week, right? We're going to, you know, give you better schools. We're going to give you better access to uh to
1:33:14jobs. We're going to be a positive contributor to the community. You know, you can get to a point where having a data center is such an advantage to your community that people are going to say, I don't, you know, that's that's false news. Here's the facts. Cheaper energy, right? uh the pro the problem though is that in in the US way of doing things the decision of whether to site a data center or not ends up being a local decision not a national decision whereas in China China
1:33:44can just declare okay the east is going to be responsible for data the west is going to be responsible for comput and energy and we're going to build this national scale grid for combining compute data and energy together and poof you're the CCP and you get to centrally command the whole economy In in the US, we have a different system where individual local municipalities and states get to say what they do and do not want their land used for. And we end up in the system that's far easier if you're a foreign adversary, worst
1:34:13case scenario, to polarize and to shut data centers out of terrestrial deployment.
1:34:18But this is false data. There's this is an outrage cycle in social media. This is people shocked that foreign interference would leverage false data. Shocked. Wait, let me let me say a couple things about this.
1:34:36So, we have a problem where our information systems reward compelling narratives over evidence. And this data center thing is the heart of that. And it's a problem that's been building up over decades with the use of social media. We are not evidentiary based in the US at all. This is really a big challenge because we're totally narrative driven and not evidentiary driven at all. We decide what the story is and then we go looking for facts that support it. Okay, data centers are a
1:35:06great hobby horse for this. Uh this is happening everywhere. We've gone from say 50 years ago, show me the evidence and I'll form an opinion to I have an opinion now show me the evidence that confirms it. and therefore and that's amplified radically with social media because nuance has no viral coefficient like this this just doesn't actually work. So this is a very difficult problem to solve actually doubly enhanced by the interference that I'm absolutely clear is happening and I'm
1:35:35with Alex on this one. The problem is we're making national policy based on these stupid innuendos and memes rather than measurement. You cannot run an advanced civilization with this. This is a massively big issue, a huge opportunity to make humanity go from scarcity to abundance and measure it, compare it, put it in context, fix the externality, but don't legislate with a story in your head, which is what the hell is going on right now. It's a
1:36:04completely disastrous problem we have. It's goes to the cognitive issue of the US.
1:36:10So, let me hear something really really cool.
1:36:13Uh, I don't know if you ever met Rob Fischer. He was the president of Link Studio for years. He he left to start a data center company a few years ago and they're killing it. It's called provocative AI.
1:36:23The data center is actually water negative and carbon negative.
1:36:28It's so cool. So, you know, it's like it's doing its own carbon capture using waste heat, you know, running off nuclear power mostly from Seabbrook, New Hampshire. And it captures more carbon than the entire loop produces. And they said, "Oh, you know what? We can actually use just the humidity accumulating because of the temperature gradient to create more water than we consume and just use our own dripping water. Then nobody can complain. We're not we're actually water negative and carbon negative. That's really it's really cool.
1:36:56And I think I saw it shows you how little water they actually use.
1:36:59Alex, wasn't there a story recently about Nvidia's new chips and and new data center structures that are actually utilizing less water now?
1:37:08Yeah. Well, there's there's news flash, there's no water in low Earth orbit. So, that's the end game. I I I think just cut the the water nonsense out. This is only forcing all of these new data center deployments to sun-synchronous orbit. We might as well just get it over with.
1:37:25Yeah. I mean, how how intelligent was Elon's move? Prophetic. Um I think it was opportunistic. I think he he laid all the infra for Mars and then opportunistically and timely pivoted to sun-synchronous orbit and the Dyson swarm because he read the tea leaves.
1:37:41Amazing. Uh can I say something more? Can I just say one more thing just if I lift up a level to the to the rationale and the foundation of why this podcast exists to reach evidence we need to reach abundance. We need an evident evidentiary foundation in our culture. Otherwise, every new technology is going to be strangled by the narratives that go viral before the evidence can spread.
1:38:07And this is the fundamental foundational problem we have with civilization. As Alex said, this is why we can't have nice things.
1:38:13I reckon we should just rename them.
1:38:14Let's call them intelligence foundaries or call them compute citadels. You know, change the narrative. It's got a branding problem.
1:38:22It's a branding problem. Again, this is not a factual thing. the funniest tweets I saw recent. Okay, I have a better one. AI churches.
1:38:31Yeah, a computer says beats AI church.
1:38:37I'm moving us along here. All right, let's jump into the world of robotics. So, uh, for the longest time, the economics of Whimo versus CyberCab have been devastating. You know, Elon projected that a cyber cab will cost about $30,000. that's what he said he'd sell them at um for the vehicle and the sensor hardware compared to Whimo's Gen 5 Jaguar which costs about $300,000.
1:39:00200K for the vehicle, 100K for the full autonomous driving hardware package. In other words, Whimo is coming in or has been coming in at 10 times as a disadvantage to CyberCap. This week, uh Whimo announced a significant redesign and cost savings. They announced details around their custom 5nanometer chip that processes camera, LAR, and radar data in real time. I love this. At one quadrillion operations per second, we've gone past trillions. We're at
1:39:28quadrillions already. Helping Yeah. help uh helping slash their sixth generation autonomous driving hardware costs from 115,000 to 20,000. At the same time, Whimo unveiled the Ohhigh vehicle, uh, a purposebuilt robo taxi minivan designed by Chinese EV maker Ziker. Uh, the Ohigh cost $75,000 per vehicle compared to the $200,000 for the generation 5 Jaguar.
1:39:54Uh, it's 42% fewer sensors, 13 cameras, and four LARs compared to 29 cameras and five LARs. Yeah. And remember, you know, Elon made the the point years ago that if a human driver can drive with just one eye, uh, you know, you should be able to do all the driving with just visual sensors. Also, in relating news, Nvidia this week uh gave permission for Tesla, Uber, and Whimo to simultaneously begin operations in Las Vegas. So, let's
1:40:23watch a quick video about the new Whimo. I had a chance to ride in it yesterday. Uh, it's a it's a pretty cool vehicle.
1:40:30Um, kind of uh not as sexy as the gold cyber cab, but take a look what Wayo calls its sixth generation driver, the hardware and software system that actually does the driving. Combine that lower cost Chinese hardware with this new interior tech, which the company says was designed to cut sensor cost while improving performance, and the math starts to move in Whimo's favor in a way that it hadn't previously. Now,
1:40:59the last system running in the Jaguar fleet had significantly more sensors.
1:41:03The new one uses 13 cameras, four LAR, and six radars, and Whimo says it performs better. The company switched to 17 megapixel cameras, a major jump from the previous specs. Higher resolution means the system can see more with fewer cameras. They slashed the total sensor count by more than 40%, so cost is down and capabilities are up. The new system also builds heaters, wipers, and sprayers into the sensor pods directly,
1:41:31which helps them clear snow, ice, and road grime.
1:41:34All right. Well, some good moon by Whimo. Uh I've been using it pretty regularly here. It's much cheaper than Uber. Uh Alex, let's go to you first.
1:41:43Okay. So, uh venting some pain here. So, Jaguar, uh owned by an Indian company now, but was doing its manufacturing in the UK.
1:41:53Yeah. but was doing its manufacturing largely for Jaguars in the UK. Look behind the headline. The we careful what we wish for with uh whoever here is suggesting that Google should just switch over to fine-tuning Chinese models. News flash, Google, Whimo, Alphabet uh are switching over to using and OEMing Chinese hardware in order to achieve Whimo objectives. I would rather see the West use a western hardware
1:42:22stack rather than just white labeling Chinese hardware. That's somewhat disappointing. It's also kind of interesting if if you look uh underneath at the the overall chip supply chain that they're using. It seems like they're moving away from Broadcom.
1:42:36They're they're vertically integrating, which is I I think a theme that we were speaking about here earlier. Whimo is maybe Whimo wants its own space station at this point. Whimo is is getting its own chips. It's OEMing Chinese hardware at the hardware layer. Maybe it's it's playing footsie with Uber for the moment for distribution, but probably wants to own its own distribution in the long term. I know whenever I use Whimo, I'm not using or engaging with Whimo via
1:43:04some aggregator app. I interact directly with Whimo. So, I I think we're starting to see honest to goodness vertical in integration here. and wouldn't also be surprised as Alphabet Whimo is starting to drive costs down in this case I guess by white labeling Chinese hardware.
1:43:22There's an interesting historic rhyme with Tesla which started with high-end Roadster and has been pushing down costs right up until they hit the autonomy barrier at which point remember the the Tesla Model 2 that was supposed to launch but never did. that was going to be the highly vaunted $25,000 vehicle never launched because Tesla hit autonomy instead and below some threshold in car price. Maybe doesn't make sense to to sell cheaper cars. It makes more sense to just get out of car
1:43:50sales entirely and offer hosted autonomy platforms. I think we're going to start to see Whimo at some point in order to drive the cost down. they'll just ditch all third-party vendors and they turn into a white label sort of a Dell for for Chinese hardware or maybe American hardware and their focus is entirely on software again.
1:44:10Yeah, the vertical integration is is completely unprecedented in history. It's something it's a byproduct of the singularity that I don't think I fully grasped until now that we're living it.
1:44:20But if you look at the largest companies in history, you know, you'd have Exon Mobile doing oil, you'd have IBM doing mainframe computers, GE, where my dad was doing nuclear reactors and toasters, but they did different things. Now, all 11 of the Magna Mobster companies are building AI chips and building AI models and building data centers, every one of them. So, they're all colliding into vertically integrated super companies and and they're just doing the entire stack.
1:44:49And robots. going to build robots.
1:44:51And meanwhile, TSMC is a sitting duck.
1:44:53TSMC is waiting to be verticalized.
1:44:56Isn't that amazing?
1:44:57It's like the the lynch pin to this entire thing, and it's sitting there not doing anything right across the straight of Taiwan ready to start World War II at a moment's notice.
1:45:07Y IO, do you ever see these vehicles coming to Europe?
1:45:11Uh, yeah. We're starting to see Whimos in London, and I think the regulation actually be largely positive for them.
1:45:17But I was having dinner today with Yanuisa, Deep Tech VC at Lake Motif. And you know, we're talking about something interesting like because previously I said, you know, a Tesla Optimus robot gets into a truck, opens the door, plugs itself into the phone char into the phone charger or the cigarette plug, and boom, that's trucking job's gone. And I was like, well, actually, why wouldn't you have specialist robot drivers?
1:45:40You know, like you don't need to retrofit all these cars because you think about a humanoid robot that's walking around in the real world versus one that sits in a cockpit driving a car. It's so much simpler. And I did a bill of materials. I'm like, that's like $6,000 with the actuators and everything. And so I was like, "Oh crap, this could actually happen a lot quicker."
1:46:00The other side of it is that you fully vertically integrate. So Xiai just announced a Xiaomi car. They've gone from mobile phones to cars with a fully dark factory. And so of course you'd vertly integrate if you have a fully dark factory. So I kind of feel like there these kind of two things that are coming. But like I said, I really got thinking about this humanoid driver robot.
1:46:20I love that idea. It's the first use case for a humanoid robot with two arms and two legs. I've yet seen so I will I will yield to you sir.
1:46:31Yeah. So Palmer lucky I on the podcast I did with Palmer uh we talked about humanoid robots and whether he was going to build them. He said, you know, uh the use case for for these in the military right now is getting into jeeps or getting into uh nuclear silos and replacing the humans and sitting at the desk and not changing out the interface hardware. Just create a humanoid robot that can interface what with what a human did before. So that makes makes a lot of sense.
1:47:00It's vaudevilian again like lack of imagination but also the ergonomics are such that we're incentivized to deploy humanoid robots initially into these human use cases but I I'm still pretty bullish for what it's worth for the next 10 years on the humanoid form factor.
1:47:14See well I think you you've kind of got two things here like one is full vertical integration. The other is human-shaped holes with humans humanoids in it. All right, I'm going to move us on to the next story.
1:47:27Wait, I just I just want to respond, Alex, very quickly. One of the funniest things I think I've ever heard you say, Alex, a couple of podcasts ago when I talked about why do we have humanoid? You said, "Oh my god, Phil, the why the self-loathing." It was so funny. So, I just love that. So, I just want to reflect back on that.
1:47:45We We love We love our humanoid form factors.
1:47:49All right. This next story I love. It's uh you know I love it when a technology really fits a perfect use case and we saw that demonstrated this week uh with a video out of China once again uh with a hybrid life preserver and drone being demonstrated. So these autonomous rescue drones can fly at 30 mph uh covering you know up to almost 2 miles landing on water providing flotation for two 80 kg
1:48:17adults. It saves lives. We're talking about a drone that flies at 30 mph compared to a human lifeguard swimming at 2 mph. I love this product. Let's take a look at the quick video here. Uh, and it's like, wow. Best use of a drone I've seen.
1:48:39Pretty amazing guys. So I thought this was fantastic for a couple of reasons, right? This is compressing time response time where time equals lives. So this is so great because autonomous response is so much more interesting than remote control in this context for this type of use case. these type of applications that can you do more for public
1:49:08acceptance of AI than any like chatbot benchmark whatever it's such a great use case I love this yeah Alex yeah so another one of my neisms was the broken whimos theory people who haven't seen this may remember from the '9s the broken windows theory most famously associated with Rudy Giuliani and the purported rehabilitation of the streets of New York City the idea was at the time that if there were broken windows
1:49:38that uh was either a proxy for or even causally related with broader crime issues and that you could almost run this causal relationship in reverse that if you made sure that there were no broken windows you could make sure that crime overall was down or at least that was the thinking at the time in sub quadrants in New York City in the '9s and the early 2000s. Similarly, uh maybe hopefully slightly better founded. I I've tried to push the notion of a broken Whamos theory. Uh the idea being
1:50:07that if a city or a nation can't deploy autonomous robots, then they're not prepared for the singularity. Uh, and I I see videos like this uh drone life preserver aircraft coming out of China and I shake my head a bit because here in Boston we can't even get Whimos and I raised the subject or attempted to raise the subject with Mayor Woo a couple weeks ago dimminimous progress. I I just
1:50:36think like we're getting lapped by China at this point.
1:50:40This is what Sam said. This is this is institutional inertia. This is the you know the existing uh players blocking their disruption. This is not a surprise.
1:50:54Not a surprise but definitely a disappointment.
1:50:56Yeah. But I think the AI labs were very late to address PR and realize they need PR and now they're on it and we'll see where it goes from here. But you know the the government reacts to voters. The voters are anti- everything. anti-data center, anti-A disruption, anti- job loss. And that's because the foundation labs who are now writing documents like machines of love and grace, you know, this is the roadmap for how the whole world should be governed in the age post AI. Well, okay, but get ahead of your P.
1:51:24You can't have every voter hating you while you try to roll out that road map.
1:51:27So, get ahead of your PR. In China, the the news is controlled by the central government. So, they just dictate the PR. I mean, it's a much easier problem in the closed world than in the free world, but at least the AI labs are aware of it now and that hopefully they'll get on it and we'll start out like the the lifeguard is such a no-brainer.
1:51:46I remember here in Santa Monica when electric scooters came out uh after a few weeks, you'd see them hanging from trees. You'd see them in parts on the ground. People started hating them. And then we had the the Whimo fires here uh back I don't know a year and a half ago. So, you know, Immod, you said this in the last pod that these robots on the streets are going to be made illegal.
1:52:08I'm curious, when we start seeing figure robots, uh, you know, we're going to have Brad Atcock back on the show here.
1:52:13We should talk about that. Um, and we start seeing Tesla on the streets, are people going to like try and capture these and and hang them from nooes? You know, I think we're going to have an interesting uh you know, sort of collision between those who can afford these robots and see them walking on the street uh and those who find them super valuable for helping them at home. So stay tuned.
1:52:39I mean, I think you do you will see lynching of robots and things. You will see people vandalize them like they vandalize cars, you know, like stealing them and all sorts of things. Yeah. I think Dave, I think the Chinese, it isn't so much about the control of the media. They genuinely see them as useful. You need it for the population pyramid in China. They've had a technological leap forward already. I think that China will produce robots. It will improve the Chinese way of life just like the electrical revolution
1:53:07there for cars is, just like AI everywhere ubiquitously is. The short form video is flooding things maybe not so much. But, you know, China will do that. And I think China will stop exporting robots in 5 years.
1:53:20This is what you're right. And I think I think we we think that a free country or a free economy, a free Europe, the press can report the truth and therefore people will get the truth.
1:53:30But if you read what's written in China, it's actually much more truthful about technology than what gets published in the US. So you talk about the water in the in the data centers. So what's actually happening is it's backfiring where the free press, which is starved for any budget, is starting to publish garbage. That's that's actually factually not true. And so the the the free press is kind of backfiring right now in the age of AI.
1:53:53Dave, this is what Al Alvin said on that, right? I mean, he said basically China has seen a technology revolution moving so many people into middle class and they appreciate technology uplifting them. So they're much more anticipatory and excited about AI.
1:54:08And if they don't, if they don't, they'll they'll get invited by the CCP for tea. So we'll never hear from them.
1:54:14I'm not pro CCP. I'm not not trying to imply that. But Alvin also said, "We will habitually report if if one whimo in one corner of San Francisco runs over a cat, it'll make every headline in the world and it'll be a tragedy.
1:54:28But if we save if it's 10 times safer than drivers, human drivers, we just don't even report it. We just like, no, no, let's show the runover cat."
1:54:37And that skews the voters tremendously.
1:54:39That Alvin explicitly talked about that, too. They just they're just more statistically accurate in the Chinese press.
1:54:46Yeah. And if it bleeds about conven I I just have to say about topics that are convenient to the government, not about topics that are inconvenient.
1:54:55But I mean ultimately this is an abundant technology. Let's face it. In the west we have a scarcity mindset. In China they have a more proabundance mindset. I think that's the big differential here. And the question is again how do you articulate great visions of the future? Moonshots conference, you future vision X-prise, things like that.
1:55:13You have to change the narrative because otherwise people like this will disrupt my job as opposed to the benefits of this side of things.
1:55:21There's so much reason for optimism and we I mean that's what our mission here is to deliver that news to people and give them the data.
1:55:29If you look at the future of China and some Chinese that I've spoken to, it's that robots do all the work and we have really good lives, you know, and China might actually be able to pull that off.
1:55:38That's why again, why would you export your robots if you can use them to give your citizens a good life?
1:55:44All right, there we go. We We are the Ministry of Super Intelligence Truth for the West.
1:55:51Everybody, welcome to the health section of Moonshots brought to you by Fountain Life. You know, we talk about AI on this Moonshot podcast all the time. One of the most important things AI is going to be able to do for you besides educating your kids and helping you with your taxes is making sure that you're living a healthy lifestyle that you get a chance to get to 100 plus. I'm here today with Dr. Don Mucalem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Don, a pleasure.
1:56:17Great. You know, the thing that people are concerned about most about living to 100 or 120 is their cognitive abilities, making sure they don't have dementia.
1:56:27And uh the numbers about dementia are problematic. Uh can you share what you've learned?
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1:56:58But what was really awesome is again back to that prevention when we partnered it with healthy living. This gives me chills. Eating healthier, moving our bodies, sleep, optimizing sleep is so important. You know what we saw? We saw that we improved that brain age by 26%. That is a big big number to show that the majority of those individuals were able actually to improve the brain age.
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1:57:37Make sure you become the CEO of your own health. All right, now back to the episode. I'm going to move us to our last group of stories here. Four space stories this week for my fellow space cadetses. Uh the first, Elon just announced his intentions to implement 30 Starship launches per day by 2030. More than a launch every hour. That's roughly 10,000 launches per year. More than 40 times the entire global launch rate. Uh Dave, you remember when we interviewed Elon at the beginning of this year? did
1:58:07a an epic three-hour podcast with him and uh we're on schedule to do a endofear prediction podcast with him again. Um these are the numbers he used.
1:58:16You know, he said to implement Star Mine, I need a 100 gawatts of solar powered AI in orbit and that's 10,000 Starship launches per year to deliver a million tons of data center payload. So, he's sticking with those numbers. Um, I guess starting in 2028, starting launching uh Star Mind and and hopefully to uh 10,000 launches per year. That's crazy. I mean, can you imagine just sitting outside the launch port and watching them pop off every like 50 minutes? It's going to be awesome.
1:58:44And it's amazing that the numbers work as things are. You know, there's going to be huge innovation in the in the efficiency of the compute. So, the numbers are going to work. Oh, he he was the one who pointed it out, but the numbers are going to work even better, tremendously better within a year or two, but the numbers work fine as it is.
1:59:00It's just incredible.
1:59:01Uh, the second story this week came out of the White House when they released the golden age of space transportation report, outlining the administration's agenda to streamline FA launch licensing, expand spaceport infrastructure, accelerate commercial lunar programs, and set a target of a thousand plus launches per year. I mean, I've been in this industry, right? I ran a launch company for a number of years.
1:59:23I helped co-found the Kodiak Spaceport in Alaska. And the amount of bureaucracy in getting those getting those done, making sure that the wrong free, you know, tree frog is not in that region and might get damaged by a launch is, you know, it was a bureaucratic uh morass. It was crazy. The third story we'll hit on here is Starlink is taking aviation over by storm. So, uh, let's take a quick look at this data. Here's the chart. This is published by SpaceX.
1:59:52And so, basically what's going on is we're getting massive adoption by all of the airlines. And why? Because people are posting on X saying, "I'm going to only fly the airlines that have Starlink." Uh, and I I choose a Starlink enabled uh, you know, airline over non.
2:00:10So what this means is the incumbents you know VSAT utils go are going to get crushed out of existence. Um thoughts on this gentlemen?
2:00:21Few thoughts maybe just starting with the what I perceive to be the regionalization of space flight and space launch. So buried under I I think the the SpaceX story is Starbase Louisiana. The announcement of Starbase Louisiana next pod but let's cover it now. uh we'll pull the future into the present and cover it now. So hundred billion dollars being invested into the Louisiana economy to build a second Starbase in Louisiana rather than Texas.
2:00:49And what this says to me reading the tea leaves is the Gulf Coast is becoming America's space coast from Florida, Louisiana, Texas, uh so on. That's America's space coast. That's where I think private space launch vertically integrated including the star bases seems to be localizing while at the same time going back Peter to your comment on the White House announcement buried in that announcement was uh an executive
2:01:17order to the secretary of the interior to start appropriating federal land for federal spaceports. And so if if you pull the string a bit and ask where are we likely to get federallyowned land for spaceports, I don't know if folks want to guess what the the likeliest candidates are. I think we're going to get a few of them. Any any takers?
2:01:43Um where's all the federal land?
2:01:46Uh in Nevada. Yeah, exactly. So, so the B, so my calculus is may or may not be a coincidence that the federal government owns so much land in red states. Um, White Sands N National Missile Range uh in New Mexico. Uh, Nevada Test and Training Range and Goldwater Range in Arizona are the leading candidates for spaceport. So, I think we get in the American Southwest, we get federal space bases or star bases
2:02:14and on the Gulf Coast, we get private star bases as it were. And that's how we get to this like 30,000 per unit time launch capability.
2:02:24You know, the reason historically all the launches were taken out of taking place out of Florida is you were dropping stages along the way, right? Uh you want to be near the water and you want to be near the equator.
2:02:34Yeah. Uh near the equator.
2:02:35You have to go east, right? You have to go to the east. Well, if you want to use the spin of the Earth to assist your launch mass, uh, but when you're dropping one, two, and three stages out, uh, you know, east of you, uh, you don't want to be dropping on populated areas. And of course, Starship is reused. The first vehic comes back, the second stage is in orbit immediately. So, you don't have to worry about that as much. You can you can land you can land in a landlock area.
2:03:00We're going to get landlocked star bases. Exactly.
2:03:03Yeah. And except for Israel that launches west for obvious geographic regions. Yeah.
2:03:08Which way does California launch?
2:03:10North. Interesting.
2:03:13Yeah. So you're basically So for polar orbits I co-founded uh or was part of the team at Kodiaku Alaska and you were launching south. So there's a large use case for polar orbiting satellites in out of Vandenberg.
2:03:28Um actually I'm I'm sorry. you're you're launching south over the Pacific uh from the curvature of California and out of Kodiak you're launching over the Gulf there. Uh yeah, it's going to be amazing. And of course uh you know Elon's true objective is not a launch every hour, it's a launch every couple of minutes.
2:03:47I think the podcast we used to talk about, you know, I've never thought about launching north or south. I thought you launched up.
2:03:56I mean up for those of us in the northern hemisphere perhaps, but I I I think Peter also you make a super interesting point uh just again uh unpacking that landlocked landlocked launch is something that we historically have not had before that thanks to reusability we're about to have and and then any landlocked country I mean I guess you could probably talk our ear off about the former Soviet Union and how it located its particular launch
2:04:24sites with reusability, landlocked launch becomes a lot easier.
2:04:29A lot of suborbital vehicles which just went straight up, you know, into the ionosphere and beyond stratosphere and and came back down were were being launched from uh you know, white sands and from Fairbanks. Uh but for orbital, you needed a place to land a hunk of metal. Our final story in the space docket here is uh a viral post on X that shows Chinese reusable rockets that are basically a Xerox copy of uh of Falcon
2:04:589. Let's take a look at this video cuz it's very telling. I mean, if you look at this, uh it is almost a duplicate of Falcon 9. The same fins, the same landing capability, the same land landing legs.
2:05:29Same cheers. Yeah. Uh, pretty crazy. Um, you know, interestingly enough, you know, SpaceX does all of their testing in public. They, you know, describe all of their failures. They open source a lot of their information and and China is being able to catch up in the reasonable rocket uh category for by taking advantage of it.
2:05:51Well, Elon has had a policy pretty public one of not going after other companies for patents in cases where SpaceX or Tesla have vast patent portfolios. Not sure whether he cares, but if he cares, maybe he wants to revisit that policy. Uh, I think he wants as much launch, as much chips, as much all of this as possible. He's been pretty vocal about that. Uh, so anyway, I'm more optimistic than than most on
2:06:18this because what you've got in SpaceX is a compounding learning loop and that's hard to break. That's hard to beat.
2:06:26Yeah, I don't think anybody's going to come close to beating them. Uh, we've also got the capital markets that enable SpaceX to really, you know, design and develop. And now that Grock or the next version of Grock has all of his engineering data, uh, it's going to be a lot of rockets being developed out there. Uh, make a call out to all of our creators out there, please send us your outro music videos to media diamandis.com.
2:06:50Uh, we want more of your creative genius. You guys open for a few uh, AMAs.
2:06:57Just a few minutes or before I have to rush to my boarding.
2:07:00Okay, we'll give you a first crack at this. See, pick your first one. Oh my god, it's got to be number one. Uh, humans suffer from mind viruses, so why would AI be any different? And this is from at Bougen 5455.
2:07:14Oh wow. Um, and you know, this goes to what we talked about earlier, right? You're we've learned that intelligence does not guarantee you epistemic awareness. You have smart human beings can believe really really stupid things. The problem with AI is the replication speed. one bad belief can progress like propagate through millions of agents almost instantly. But it also gives us a defensive capability because we can
2:07:42cross-check this. Look at the benefit of on on X of people checking with Grock whether something's real or not. It's creating a really vi a viable conversational architecture where truth maximally truth seeeking is actually working where I think the multi- aent world can work is one agent can challenge another agent's claim but you're going to have to program that in to have that cognitive critical thinking in there. So you're going to need a lot
2:08:11of cognitive diversity to navigate this.
2:08:14Um and nature solves this through diversity. Right? The problem that we have is that it's not like nature AI with a bad meme. It's billions of AI sharing the same bad meme because they all came from the same bad model or from the same original point. So I think we're going to have to have this problem becomes much bigger with AI agents not more but the answer is in Alex's idea of defensive co-caling.
2:08:38I'll take number two. Is there an X- prize for actually curing a disease and getting the cure to market not just discovering it? So, uh, I'll just say the following. We're looking for places that are stuck to launch X-prises with a clear objective function. The first person to do this, I think honestly the AI labs uh, from, you know, the work that Demis is doing and Dario is doing uh, are working on this. I don't think an X-P prize would accelerate it. So, we don't want to get into the middle of
2:09:07something that's already in the process of being solved. We're looking for problems that are stuck. All right, Dave, over to you, pal.
2:09:14All right, I'll take number four. It's very timely actually. Why isn't Intel earning a fortune making chips using Nvidia's old designs from Jim Pladon 67637?
2:09:26Uh I was just talking to a senior exec from Intel asking almost exactly that same question. So I happen to know the answer. So uh Lipu has the company making a ungodly fortune on Xeons and is concurrently burning that fortune on building out massive fab capability. So they're burning almost two billion a quarter on their fab business and they're they just raised another 20 billion to build more fabs. The idea being get that capacity up and compete
2:09:55with TM TSMC as a general purpose fab company. If they were to start competing with Nvidia and the other GPU companies right now, they wouldn't be able to attract them as customers for the big new fab business. So they're being very specific about building chips and making a fortune on those chips that are not competing directly with Nvidia while growing their TSMC competitive business to massive scale. So that's their strategy.
2:10:19There you go. All right, Emod, you want to take number three?
2:10:23Yeah. So number three, can you guys talk about dentistry? Has anything actually changed in 20 years? Where is AI on regrowing teeth at Johnny5 CD? Um so there has actually been advances in this with AI design lians to increase enamel production and have stronger teeth. On the other side we've seen AI in dentistry from analyzing kind of the mouth and the various kind of elements of that. But I think kind of getting these amo blasts up and running will be
2:10:53really useful in repairing teeth. But I don't think anyone's actually figured out to crack regrowing them fully.
2:11:00You want to layer on top? I I feel like I have to take another bite at this question. Haha. Haha. So, there is a drug out of spin-off from Keyoto University called TR035 that is targeting tooth three growth, honest to goodness, 23 growth uh with general availability by 2030. And I don't think there's that much AI involved with it. Again, it's blocking a particular I think uh protein protein
2:11:27pathway that is normally associated with blocking. So it's a double blocker. Uh blocking the blocker for tooth regrowth. I think the primary focus in their clinical trials is infants that suffer from a disease that causes impaired tooth growth, but the plan is to get it out to general availability by the end of this decade.
2:11:48Nice. I was going to layer on top, but you got it. All right. Uh Dave.
2:11:54Oh god, there's so many good ones on this page. Okay. Uh I'll take number eight. If you had a 100x capability tonight, what would you actually work to solve? So, I would do exactly this. Um, in fact, I will have 100x capability by the end of the week. So, I'm going to use it to try and build algorithms that self-improve more efficiently and then try and get that flywheel accelerated.
2:12:15And then I think that I completely agree with with Demisabas. What we need to do next is turn all of that energy toward health and longevity until we get it solved and then we have more time as a species and then we expand out from there. So I would I would do it in exactly that order. Self-improvement first then health and longevity consume it all.
2:12:36All right. Uh Immod um let's see if Dario wants super voting shares and control and ends up with a trust nobody elected. How does anyone actually get that power back at Dave Hood Harman 03? I think that's the point.
2:12:53You're not going to have a say in super intelligence. Um I think anthropic think that's far too dangerous and there is no good democratic way to do that under their rubric and kind of approach. So you have to assume that it will be a closecont controlled company and ultimately comes down to a few people like Ben Bernani to decide the future of the Liteco potentially.
2:13:18Huh. All right, Alex. How about number five?
2:13:21Oh, really? You don't you want me answering number six?
2:13:25I'll take number six.
2:13:26Oh, really? All right. Uh, okay, fine.
2:13:30I'm steering the conversation clearly. Uh, so five asks, "Are we worried that non-AI research and development gets starved of resources while everyone waits for AI to dominate?" This is from Brian Silver 9652.
2:13:45No, not worried. Uh, if if anything, I think ultimately the self-looking ice cream cone of recursive self-improvement can only get us so far in terms of revenue per token maxing. My expectation is that it's going to be the nonAI R&D applications that ultimately dominate the economic gain. You you can only get so far improving AI for its own sake before ultimately you have to start driving real economic gains which AI if it just lives in a pure bottle and never
2:14:14interacts with the outside world. There's no real economic gain there. It it has to start talking to the outside world at some point and that's what non AI R&D is. So in short, no.
2:14:24All right. And number six, when will an AI bot become a member of the Moonshots panel from John's Musical Musings? What makes you think, John, that that we're not already AI bots?
2:14:38That was my answer, Peter.
2:14:40Yes, I know it is.
2:14:42What makes you think Alex is a real human? I mean, listen, approximate approximately a year ago.
2:14:47Uh, approximately a year ago. Yes, for sure. And I think we will be playing with that very shortly, John's. So, uh, one last music video for everybody. Let's enjoy this one. Optimism to the max by Martin Parish. The moonshots, mates. Optimism. Optimism to the max with moonshots makes four minds, four takes, honest debate.
2:15:15The singularity is now and just accelerates. No dystopia. Here we build and create the rhythm that the moonshots makes like how we're all bobbleheads at this point. Peter the prophet of abundance 28 hour days moonshot after moonshot lighting the flame exponential oracle in the dawning new age he's always ready to blow his mind away I am prescario he's the allocator in the markets in the lab sharp as an alligator 30 years in the game so he says it straight up on the
2:15:45cutting edge pure accelerator optimism to the max with moonshots makes four minds for takes honest debate the singularity is now and just accelerates no dystopia here we build we create the Moon shots mate. Where the moon founded exo in the mtp system thinking sium thing. Fundamental transformation is what he sings. Efficiency maxing with the models he brings. Glow trotting cuz there's no containing this thing. Intelligence wants to be free.
2:16:20A WG inhouse ASI voice for digital entities rides. He's got his mind on the truth and the truth on his mind. Day to move them in a way we can't describe. Dyson's fears filling his dreams at night to the max with moonshots made for mind. The singularity is now just accelerates. No dystopia. Here we build we create.
2:16:46All right. Uh for all your outro video creators again, send us at mediadmandis.com. We have to start including EMOD into those videos. And uh gentlemen, I guess we're going to be recording in 48 hours from now. You know, no time to sleep.
2:17:01Good thing nothing ever happens.
2:17:04I think another full docket already for that one, eh?
2:17:06We do. We do. Amazing.
2:17:08We really so much.
2:17:10We have to check out Nvidia results, man.
2:17:13Love you guys. Be well.