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0:20A very warm welcome to Squawk Box Europe. I'm Steve Sedgwick with Ben Boulos and these are headlines. Mistral AI raising 3 billion euros at a valuation topping 21 billion among Europe's largest [music] ever tech equity fundraising rounds. The CEO Arthur Mensch tells CNBC the money will power future growth.
0:41We are very confident that the fundraising we are doing today is also accelerating and enabling further growth down the line in 2027 in particular because this is capital that we'll put to use and that we'll use for creating more compute and more capacity to serve our customers.
0:59Oil prices hit a six-week high with Brent teetering near the $100 a barrel mark. Elevated energy prices weighing on market sentiment and raising the chances of central bank tightening. And global trade in focus, Chinese exports [music] surge accelerating 25% in August and putting Beijing in pole position for another record annual trade surplus. Meanwhile elsewhere, Canada's [music] counter tariffs on the US coming to effect.
1:37Okay, French AI startup Mistral has raised 3 billion euros in a series D funding round putting the company valuation at 21 billion euros. The round was led by Samsung Electronics alongside the EU-backed scale-up Europe fund and US-based PSG Equity. Arjan, who obviously has this great relationship with the company and knows them very well, uh, joins us now. Arash, um, is this the moment when Europe does
2:05something that it hasn't done before, which is managed to get companies that are small to a stage where they are big enough to start competing on a on a world stage, uh, and go toe-to-toe with the big US and international tech companies? Cuz, all right, 21 billion, it's a fraction compared to those multi-trillion-dollar companies in the States. And yet, it feels like it's beginning to bridge the gap.
2:29Yeah, I think there's there's certainly signs of that. And I'd say Mistral is very much the poster child of that effort. Uh, Mistral has been set up as this sort of competitor to to OpenAI, to Anthropic, to some of the Chinese labs.
2:41It's taking a slightly different approach in the sense that it is training its own models, but what it's focusing on is building out infrastructure and trying to work with individual companies to integrate AI into their processes. So, last year, they took on a big funding round with ASML, uh, and in that process, they're working with their ASML to integrate AI into their manufacturing processes. This is the big Dutch equipment maker. Now, Samsung is in board in this round, uh, and they're looking to do, uh, something similar. I had a chance to catch up with Arthur Mensch, the CEO, and ask a little
3:10bit about what they plan to do with this fresh injection of capital. Let's listen in.
3:15It's all about, uh, accelerating. Uh, the first thing that we are going to be accelerating is to, uh, scale our training compute capacity. Uh, we have been, uh, building better and better algorithms and better and better techniques, and the team is ready to scale the techniques that we've been building. So, we're excited to train bigger and faster models. Uh, it's also about building more infrastructure. Uh, we are deploying, uh, technology that is based on open-source models, and that allows to have sovereignty for our customers, and that actually takes a very
3:45significant, uh, physical footprint, in particular in Europe. Um, and And finally, we're expanding more and more our go-to-market and our operations with customers so in Asia and in the US as well as in Europe. So part of the proceeds of this fundraising will also be about building further verticalization in manufacturing as with with Samsung in particular but also with financial services where we have been growing significantly in
4:14the US and defense and the public sector that is again are very concerned about AI sovereignty and for whom we have very good solutions.
4:24I want to talk about one of your investors cuz fascinating company Samsung coming on board here in a bigger way.
4:31Last time you had the big investment round last year led by ASML which led to a big commercial partnership between the two of you working on various different ways to integrate your technology with what ASML was doing on the manufacturing side etc. What work are you planning to do with Samsung already underway with Samsung?
4:51Yeah, so a lot of it is confidential but today announcement is really about the investment itself. But as you can tell from what we've been doing with ASML which has been to embed deeply into their core businesses and to making their machines work better and to designing better things.
5:08These things are the way we work with customers and so when working manufacturing companies we we embed our teams we work on their their deepest and dearest data and we help them build the AI system that can leverage that IP in a way where they feel confident this IP remains their own and the system remains their own. So this is of course something we're looking forward to do with companies like Samsung and the fact that they are now at the cap table
5:34sitting alongside ASML and Nvidia as representative of the semi world is I think telling about uh the focus we have on industry AI and on making AI useful for high-end manufacturing. So, a lot of opportunities in further partnering together there. Uh and uh that investment is indeed the first step towards towards advancing technology in in the semi space.
6:02Um Arthur, you're getting a lot of commercial traction now, some big partnerships, big deals coming through.
6:06I think you previously said uh Mistral's annual recurring revenue will uh we're on track to exceed a billion dollars this year. Do any of this new funding, new partnerships um mean that that ARR may maybe higher than you had previously anticipated?
6:20Yeah, I think we are absolutely tracking towards that target and expect to be uh to be uh beating it um if everything happens as as they as they are trending.
6:30So, Arthur mentioned talking a little about where that money's going, particularly into infrastructure, which is required for the company can to continue to train its models to compete uh with some of those big labs out there and particularly out of China because this is interesting where Mistral has basically uh said that it wants to continue down this uh path of open weight open source uh AI models. Uh Mistral and Arthur Mench believe this is key uh to competing globally globally, but it's facing very intense competition
6:59from the Chinese companies like ZAI, like Moonshot, like Alibaba, who are also releasing very capable, very strong AI models as well. In fact, Mistral even decided very recently to start selling GLM 5.2, which is a model produced by Chinese firm ZAI, which begs the question, is Mistral giving up on the frontier uh and can this company compete with these Chinese labs and Chinese models that are hitting the market right now? Does it mean the Chinese models
7:28will dominate Europe's AI scene? This is a question I put to Mench. Let's listen in.
7:33The models that are going to come out of Mistral very soon uh are very competitive with those. Uh and so it means that as a European company, you can rely on a European provider providing European models.
7:44But then the question is rather as a European company can you use models from China? So the first answer is you in general they the Chinese labs are actually not operating and not embedding at all and not working with enterprise customers outside of China. I think that's something to keep in mind. Now in certain cases the the the the assets that are being put by labs in China and the US and Europe can be used and on our infrastructure to serve
8:13certain customers that we have. It is not creating a very strong dependency to the AI labs in that at the end the data is staying with us. The customization is made by our engineers. The and and the the sovereignty that our customers are requiring is there.
8:31Now the question is can you rely on long-term support for those models? Can you can you know that they're going to be updated over time? Are you sure that in one year from now they will still be out there and they will still be improved? And the answer to be honest is no because you you can't make any kind of assumption on how models are going to be exported. At this point in time we are seeing that the volatility in this space is actually quite extreme. And so what that means for us is that yes we provide everything that is open source and that
9:01we can provide because at the end this is beneficial for everyone. Now we also need to be a trusted partner for our customers and they want us to be sure to to certify that in one year from now they will get access to better models than they they have access today.
9:16And the only way we can provide that guarantee is by continuing to train our models ourselves. So there's really two reasons. One is business continuity making sure that our customers are getting long-term support. The other is that we are spinning the open source flywheel. We're putting assets out there and that means that every labs in the world that have an open source strategy wants to make something even better.
9:37And Arthur just on this open source story, I mean one of the the big stories in the past couple of weeks has been Nvidia's acquisition of Hugging Face.
9:43Hugging Face has been such an important platform for for major open source players around the world including yourself. Are you concerned at all about this acquisition that it could erode the neutrality of Hugging Face and you know create more lock-in to Nvidia potentially down the road?
10:01No, we're not particularly concerned. We I mean we we don't really work with Hugging Face a lot. So we actually that's the place where we host where we put our models assets. So it's a great place for sharing technology. So far it is not linked to an inference platform.
10:18We actually don't know how it's going to evolve but overall for us Hugging Face is a place where we share assets. It's a place where every lab is sharing assets. I think it's great that if they continue to operate that platform which is super useful for hosting the weights of models.
10:35But at the end of the day our customers are not going through Hugging Face to deploy the technology and so how to comment on that? I think it's it's yet another proof that Nvidia has a very strong interest in seeing open source models succeed and and it's also the reason why we work with them on on the Demotron coalition.
10:55Again, we we have very strongly aligned interest with chief providers to make sure that the the foundation for building AI application in the enterprise is an open source foundation. And so that's a very positive news.
11:11That was Arthur Mensch there talking about the potential of open source but I think you know for Mistral which is very much said open source is their future. The big competition is coming from China and that's clear and that was what What's I've got two dumb questions. So I'm here for all the people out there who don't understand any of this stuff. I me.
11:29What's the What's the between open source and open weight?
11:31So open weights is probably the more accurate term. The two are being sort of interchanged.
11:36by being more accurate. You're being way more accurate. Yeah.
11:37That's a first in technology.
11:38Open weight sounds a bit jargony, but but open weights ultimately. And it means that effectively this model can be downloaded and used and run on someone's own infrastructure. That's pretty key.
11:52Um And what what Arthur mentioned, Mistral are trying to position as this kind of European open open weight champion saying we can be the European sort of sovereign AI serving European and global customers who want secure models that are that are not US, that are not Chinese, and that are European.
12:09Here's my number two dumb question.
12:12Um if models are open source or open weight, how do you control your margins on them and make as much profitability as closed models?
12:21Yeah, and that's pretty key, I think, because that was hitting to the heart of the question around why wouldn't the Chinese models just dominate then given they are so advanced here in Europe. And his answer was effectively what Mistral is doing is they're producing their own models, which they're then going to companies to work with and say, "Hey, what do you need? We can build that for you using our models, integrate it into your business."
12:44journalism kind of thing, you know, where when I was at the Press Association for instance, [clears throat] we we would provide a piece of copy and then people can put their own bells and whistles on it and put in the Yorkshire Post or what have you.
12:54Effectively, but I think Mistral is trying to go even deeper and almost be this sort of you know, create these custom systems based on their models.
13:02And his argument was that the Chinese labs aren't necessarily operating in Europe in that capacity. They don't have big offices here and boots on the ground to work with with these kind of companies to that. And the other point he was bringing up was it's unclear about the continuity of models. I if a Chinese lab releases a model today, are they going to continue to update that in a year's time? And if you have built something based on that model, are you going to be able to upgrade that as well? that was one of the questions.
13:29to what Ben's going to be doing next, talking about Sorry, I It it it it is You know, before I've said it.
13:34Yeah, yeah, yeah. You're You're talking about AI security. Um but the the segue is, of course, and and rightly or wrongly, don't want to get involved in the politics of it, but people aren't necessarily from a security point of view going to want Chinese AI open weight open-source models in Europe and elsewhere. Uh we've seen all this with Huawei and others over the times, and you've covered all this.
13:54Yeah, we've seen it all, and I think that argument is continuing to resurface now when we're talking about models, and that That's precisely where I think Mistral's trying to position itself and saying, "Well, we are the sort of European sovereign uh company that can provide all this AI. If you don't want to go to a US lab, if you don't want to use Chinese technology, that's our our positioning." And so, so it's an interesting one because their growth is also wrapped up in the geopolitics and in the sort of uh around AI and technology right now, and that's I think really helping the growth that they're
14:24Okay. Arge, thank you. Uh a lot there, and uh if people want more on Mistral's funding round and how the startup is betting on open weight AI models to help it compete with players like OpenAI and Anthropic, uh Arge's write-up is available for you right now at cnbc.com. But don't on your phone, cuz you want to keep watching the show at the same time as well.
14:43What if you're watching the show on the phone?
14:44Uh you can I minimize the player window, and then look at the app on your phone.
14:49Apple had a foldable screen with enough room on both.
14:54Were you Were you about to say just I was about to say that. Imagine you had a foldable.
14:57Imagine you had a foldable.
14:58I played with a foldable the other day.
15:02I thought I'd hate it.
15:03It's multitasking heaven.
15:05is coming next week.
15:07Is there a week We've got tonight. Tonight is is is tonight.
15:10European The big unveiling.
15:12Yeah. Let's see what they bring out.
15:14This is the big I've heard associated with it is uh probably around $2,000 they're thinking, and that's uh if that's That's going to be That's not that's about 1,500 quid, isn't it? Something?
15:24Well. [laughter] So, [clears throat] you've missed that sketch.
15:28It it'll $2,000 potentially. What I mean like memory prices, the cost of these devices are folded because because of the screen technology a really good idea.
15:35It was I'm going to go and go and use your room. You can stay for 2 hours 45 minutes. The viewers would love that.
15:40[laughter] But that's the thing because they're saying it's going to be John Turnus' first test if they do reveal this this foldable phone. If it does come with a bigger price tag, can he convince customers this is worth having? And and this is going to be one of his first big tests.
15:54It's an Apple device. Apple customers are incredibly loyal. Um, they love their new iPhones.
16:01Yeah. [laughter] I don't I don't care about John Turnus. I just don't want to lose my photos.
16:05I think an Apple foldable photos of my kids that none of us are ever going to look at. [laughter] Yeah.
16:10That's true. I think Apple an Apple foldable could do very well because strong user base. Uh, there are a lot of people who want to be early adopters of this technology. And Apple has done some great things around financing, around trading deals that, you know, can entice people to buy the device. And it's an Apple product and there's going to be a lot of people who will want to try this out. Certainly at the early stages.
16:33confirmed it yet. They were just speculating.
16:35Yeah, if it comes out. If they do indeed announce a foldable.
16:38Indeed. Indeed. I will be watching closely. And it's tonight, isn't it? Or tomorrow night? 9th September, I think.
16:43Yeah, tonight. I look forward to it.
16:44Come back and talk about it again tomorrow. Do more. Um, now, I was going to talk about uh, OpenAI and uh, security, cybersecurity. Uh, I don't know how Steve knew that.
16:55But, uh, OpenAI has sent an incident report to the EU Commission following a Reuters report that not one, but a whole cluster of rogue AI agents hacked a German website during the spring. An EU spokesperson confirmed receipt of the report to Reuters, adding they remain in close contact with the AI startup. and it raises questions about cybersecurity but the UK is apparently ahead of the curve
17:23in that sphere. That's according to Bipple Sinha, the CEO of cybersecurity firm Rubrik, who says the UK is now the center of the universe when it comes to AI in Europe. I had a chance to speak to him and asked how his company's adapting its technology in the age of AI.
17:40Now we have AI securing these agents and watching these agents and understanding their intent and create runtime security and guardrails because you can't define rules for it.
17:51Yeah, but it's like it's almost becomes like a game of chess between these AI agents where you're relying on yours being able to outsmart the potentially malicious agent that's trying to to defeat your software, no?
18:06And and that's why you need to understand the agentic intent at every action. You can't let the sequence of actions and then try to find out what's happening. So every agentic interaction, we have to understand the agent and nip it in the bud.
18:23Do you think the UK and Europe are doing enough to support this potential niche within the AI kind of innovation and development or are they at risk of losing ground to the US and China when it comes to AI cybersecurity?
18:43If you look at UK, UK has been ahead of the curve with when it comes to safety.
18:49And UK is now the center of the universe for Europe when it comes to AI. So we are very excited about the UK market and broader European market. We actually announced that we are investing half a billion dollar in UK and our idea is that how do we bring the AI expertise plus the private sector and public sector all together to ensure that folks can deploy AI with confidence.
19:16That's Beeple Sinha. Now, coming [music] up on the show, Brent crude creeps closer to $100 a barrel as the US and Iran [music] conflict escalates. Plus, Europe's largest carbon capture project launches in the Netherlands. We'll bring you our conversation with the Prime Minister of Norway on Europe's industrial future. And disruptions in the Gulf wreak havoc on Dubai Airport's passenger traffic. We'll be joined by the group CEO, Paul Griffiths. That conversation's coming up at 7:45 London time.
19:46[music] Executive Decisions is the new podcast from CNBC, where I ask powerful leaders about the decisions that changed everything. I'm Steve Sedgwick. Here's the CEO of the London Stock Exchange Group, Julia Hoggett.
20:12There is no justification whatsoever for not doing the right thing, even if the right thing is hard to do. Which also means that if the context changes or the information changes, it is absolutely fine to also change your mind.
20:23That's Executive Decisions with me, Steve Sedgwick. Get [music] it wherever you're listening to this.
20:43So, this is the picture on the Asian market session as things currently stand. And as the session has progressed, we've seen things take a turn for the negative, and it's the Nikkei, the Tokyo index, that is leading the losses, down 1 and 1/2% at the moment. Uh the Hang Seng also uh moving lower, and the Kospi, the South Korean benchmark there, also off 6/10 of 1%.
21:05The only one in the green on this wall, the Shanghai composite. And there are perhaps some currency effects in play because of course we've seen the yen, the Japanese yen, strengthen. It is up around about 4 to 5% in the last week.
21:20So, that is potentially at play having an effect on equities, but we'll delve into that in more detail later in the show. In the meantime, China is benefiting from the AI boom with exports from the country surging 25% on the year in August, in line with forecasts. Imports also grew substantially, just missing expectations though at more than 28%. Those moves helped China's trade surplus with the US rise to more than 29 billion dollars.
21:52Let's look at what's being anticipated for the European markets when trading gets underway. And a softer start according to the futures. If this is how things play out, key benchmarks all looking to open lower. This after a day where trading, well, we saw a fairly flat end to the Monday session where the pan-European Stoxx 600 barely deviating from the flat line. A little bit of a mixed picture. The FTSE, the DAX closing lower, the CAC and the MIB
22:20closing just a little higher, but no dramatic sharp moves. Investors trading fairly cautiously and it looks like we'll have a negative open, but of course we'll count down to that and give you the open as it happens at 8:00 London time. Um US markets were closed yesterday, public holiday, Labor Day, but they're back today.
22:41Back, I was going to say, with enthusiasm, but very little enthusiasm to be found there in the US futures. All looking to start in negative territory with the Dow being called lowest out of the three benchmarks. A lot for investors to digest state-side. We've got the latest inflation print due out this after last week's blowout jobs report, uh more jobs created in August, far more than had been expected by
23:09economists and poll. Uh and so everything's riding on what comes in with the inflation print uh for clues as to what the Fed might do. Uh although hike uh bets have increased off the back of that jobs report, Steve.
23:22Crude prices are holding at elevated levels as Iran threatens the US with {quote} economic warfare. Price stickiness is only increasing inflation concerns and expectations of a hike from the ECB on Thursday. With money markets are pricing in a near 100% chance uh the bank raise its deposit rate by a quarter of a percentage point. Our next guest says that tightening monetary policy into an energy supply shock when growth is tepid may be a mistake. Keith Patton is managing director and head of global rates at Columbia Threadneedle. Hi Keith, really nice to see you. Thanks
23:51for joining us today. Look, um I I I've I've had this debate with a lot of our viewers and and thanks to all our viewers, by the way, for getting involved. Some great viewpoints on both sides of the Atlantic. What Why do central banks Explain to me and our viewers why do central banks need to raise rates when actually the market is already doing that anyway in its assumptions on inflation?
24:13Yeah, they Well, this is the this is the dilemma they've got is it's it's a it's about an anchoring. It's how do they anchor inflation expectations when ultimately they haven't really got much control on what's been driving the inflation over the last uh 6 to 9 months since the start of the conflict is, you know, this has been oil and energy induced inflation. And what they're looking at really is to try and signal and anchor the longer-term expectations,
24:41not that they're expecting, you know, to show that they have got a handle, that they're focused on inflation, and that they they want to try and make sure they're anchoring um you know, the expectations so that it doesn't run away, so we don't see wage expectations running away, etc.
24:57Yeah, but I mean but the the second-round effects is what they're worried about. Keith, you you know, you'll you'll probably go to Ted Truscott and say, "Come on, I I need some more money because well, maybe you won't. But but but yeah, because [laughter] because because I'm worried about my energy costs. I'm worried about my You like that one. Um but but they will happen across society. It happens every time we get a burst of inflation, doesn't it, Keith?"
25:17Yeah, I mean, this is where the dilemma for central banks you know, we can come on to watch in a moment and what Lagarde's what Madame Lagarde's got to do, but yeah, literally the the danger is we've got here is we have got tepid growth. We have got slower growth in Europe. Wages actually are, you know, well within what you'd expect for the ECB um you know, well within the range um given productivity around 1%, so, you know, the only real issue we've got is the energy issue and there's a little
25:46bit in housing and you could argue that maybe sticking rates up actually put some of these housing effects uh a little bit stronger. So, yeah, it's not obvious why they're doing it and you know, in a strange way, we've seen how you deal with a supply shock during COVID is ultimately you let fiscal policy do some of the work and if you have to do something to contain your bond market, you do a little bit of QE and a little bit of uh central bank playing at the long end of bonds, but unfortunately for the ECB, that's not
26:14available, you know, they've only got one target, inflation and they they can you know, they want to stay keep that independent story going. So, yeah, it's not obvious why they should be tightening, but you know, and quite rightly, as you say, the market has done the work for them. So, you know, and I think if they don't deliver, you know, you end up in this horrible uh feedback loop. If you don't deliver what the market's demanding, especially with the guidance which has come, uh you know, Madame Lagarde has really
26:42set up and really pre-signaled what was going to go on in September, so the market has priced for an increase. And I and I suppose you get caught in this situation where if the central bank doesn't, you know, deliver on what they're trying to say, the market starts to lose confidence. And in a strange way, this is where Mr. Walsh with his movement towards less guidance becomes more of an issue because the market might focus then on the data. And as you mentioned in the introduction, strong unemployment, and if we've got a strong
27:12inflation number this week, it's almost the market will almost demand an increase in it an increasing rates.
27:19Keith, I'm fascinated this morning by uh what's happening with the yen and the implications of that because if we see the Bank of Japan continue raising rates because they've got to deal with inflation that they've now uh started to experience uh meaningfully, um just just spell out the implications of that and and and how how that could then affect the, you know, the the other
27:48rates and and the the currencies that uh would have a a knock-on effect from it.
27:54Yeah, look, you know, we've we've got a lot of um conflicting signals going on cuz if the Fed Let's look at the Fed. If the Fed tighten rates, does that and the and the Bank of Japan don't do just match it, is that going to push the that carry trade back into play? You know, we've seen the intervention, and we know this intervention really needs to be followed up by real policy. And I I've I've always said, you know, when you look at Japan, you almost have to look at Japan
28:24in a reverse situation. They've wanted inflation for many years. You know, it's been They've had a disinflation and a deflation problem for many years. So, you know, inflation is something they've been needing in their system for a long time. So, they've been reluctant to tighten into this inflationary story cuz it's something they've wanted for many, many years. So, you know, no that So, they've been classed as being behind the curve. Now, we've got to a point where the yen's been quite weak and there's talk about, you know, intervention and we've seen the
28:54intervention. Yeah, we've got this dichotomy as if the Fed tightens and the Bank of Japan doesn't tighten as much.
29:00Is you know, does the yen weaken off again? So, in a strange way this this this yen move is is in line with their intentions. Um, but, you know, it is it's not it's not obvious given what the Fed if if the markets are pushing the Fed to be tightening if Mr. Wash starts to really come down heavily on tightening of rates and more than Japan, I think that intervention will very quickly melt away and we might see a a
29:29lower yen. Personally, I believed in a strong yen for some time, but it's uh you know, it I I think it I think it's going to take time for those for for for those fundamentals to establish a longer yen position. And I think it does need the Bank of Japan to start to move slightly more aggressively.