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Gurley: NYT profile of Dario Amodei
Bill Gurley called the New York Times piece on Anthropic's CEO "a must read for anyone associated with AI." He named corporate customers, analysts and, "most importantly," regulators of AI, because it is "critical to understand the 'why'" . What stood out to him was Amodei as a high school student who was a "Y2K worrier," which Gurley called "quite defining" . Reporter Ryan Mac says the team spent months on the piece. It describes a man influenced by rationalism, effective altruism and Ray Kurzweil, whose convictions "are being tested now as his company is about to go public" . Article
Chamath: Brandur's "slightly bearish" thoughts on Stripe
Chamath Palihapitiya quoted @brandur's "overly long (slightly bearish?) thoughts on Stripe." Brandur opens by noting that roughly half of the best people he worked with at Stripe are now at Anthropic and the other half at OpenAI . Chamath's takeaway is that "the value of being public is access to capital." Public markets let a company build a warchest in exuberant times and deploy it during contractions, which private companies find much harder to do . Because a tech company is "always one turn of innovation away from irrelevance," he argues that staying private underprices its cash flows when markets are exuberant and overprices them during declines . Post
O'Shaughnessy: Ben Thompson on the AI capital gap
Patrick O'Shaughnessy posted a clip of Ben Thompson on why "we might run out of capital before we run out of demand for compute" . Thompson argues that AI spending has moved down the capital curve, from free cash flow to debt to equity. He says that if returns don't arrive in time "we could have a big blowup," and that today's spending "all goes into compute in 2029" . Post
Casado: Exo paper and poteto on formal methods
Martin Casado shared the arXiv paper on Exo, which he co-wrote with Alex Krentsel and @ankrgyl. It tests how much a model can optimize a task when it can read runtime logs and modify and rebuild its own harness. The authors borrowed from operating systems work to make those changes safely, and Casado calls the results "surprisingly strong" . Paper
He also endorsed @poteto's post on formal methods as "exactly my long standing view" . Poteto argues for layered checks: guardrails, empirical verification, and formal verification such as TLA+ model checking for the parts that need it. He also recommends his /statechart skill for confirming that an agent understood your intent . Post
Shorter picks
- Sarah Guo shared Alex Ker's explainer on speeding up DeepSeek Flash, saying "love us some model driven model infra" . Ker says their internal harness optimized more than 80 kernels, reaching 991 output tokens per second. The explainer covers kernel fusion, programmatic dependent launch and host loop minimization . Post
- Garry Tan highlighted DeepFinance as "the first long horizon benchmark for PE/IB work," adding that "solving high finance is on the path to AGI" . It has 21 expert-built problems based on real deal data, each representing 20–40 hours of professional work . Leaderboard
- Elon Musk said Iain Banks "arguably has the best vision for the future" . He was responding to a post describing the Culture novels as a civilization of compute abundance where people choose among ships organized around different ways of life .
- Naval shared Akira the Don's new track "The Real Currency of Life," which is built on Naval's own line : "Not money, not time - but attention" . Post
- Vinod Khosla called his WSJ video interview with Sarah Krouse on job losses, capital gains and an AI safety net a "great conversation" . Video
- Jason Lemkin promoted the new 20VC x SaaStr episode on OpenAI's lower $1.25 trillion valuation, Anthropic's growth "halved," and agents bypassing DoorDash . Episode
Reid Hoffman suggested that viewers unfamiliar with his reference during a discussion of recursive self-improvement watch “the documentary” or consult Wikipedia; he did not identify the documentary, its creator, or a specific Wikipedia entry.
Keith Rabois shared Alex Konrad’s post announcing an on-camera interview with Ramp co-CEO Eric Glyman for The Upstarts Podcast, captioning it “Ramp’ng.” The announcement links to the video.
Naval shared Akira the Don’s video “The Real Currency of Life”, whose post marks it “OUT NOW,” and stressed its takeaway: attention—not money or time—is life’s real currency.
Tim Ferriss recommends watching his full conversation with Dr. Gabor Maté, titled Dr. Gabor Maté on How to Reframe a Challenging Moment; the video is available on YouTube.
A sponsor blurb for Tiago Forte’s Life in Perspective lists Sahil Bloom among people who praised the book. It presents the ARC Method—Appreciate the Past, Reflect on the Present, Create the Future—as a repeatable annual life-review ritual, but gives no specific reason for Bloom’s praise.
Garry Tan linked Jeremy Tate’s X post about declining AP-exam rigor, saying the broader watering down of standards by university education departments in the 2020s “needs to be studied.” Tate’s post points to a new Education Next piece and cites cuts to AP Biology content and other exam changes as evidence.
Garry Tan highlights DeepFinance, released by @0interestrates: a 21-problem benchmark built using real deal data for PE/IB work representing 20–40 hours of human professionals’ work . Tan calls it the first long-horizon PE/IB benchmark and says solving high finance is on the path to AGI . DeepFinance leaderboard .
Chamath Palihapitiya linked to @brandur’s post “For fun, overly long (slightly bearish?) thoughts on Stripe,” saying its generalization was worth considering. His takeaway: public-market access lets companies build a cash reserve during exuberant periods and deploy it during contractions—a harder strategy for private companies—and capital can fund compensation, product, R&D, competition, and growth. He also notes that tech-company cash flows are fragile because a single turn of innovation can make a company irrelevant. Read Brandur’s post.
Bill Gurley called a New York Times piece about Dario Amodei a “must read” for people associated with AI—including corporate customers, analysts and especially regulators—to understand Amodei’s “why”; the linked report describes his convictions and influences on AI development. Gurley said what stood out to him was Amodei as a young high-school student who was a “Y2K worrier.” NYT article
Sarah Guo (@saranormous) endorsed Alex Ker’s post about speeding up DeepSeek Flash, highlighting roughly 1,000 TPS and saying she likes “model driven model infra.” Ker’s post explains kernel fusion, programmatic dependent launch, and host loop minimization as ways to make flash models faster: Alex Ker’s post.
Tim Ferriss recommends his new podcast episode, “Lucky #888 — My Tour of Designing Luck in China, Japan, and Korea,” a nerdy exploration of the number eight in those countries, with examples including a million-dollar license plate, disappearing hotel floors, and a casino room designed around a gambler’s birthday. Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1d9CpkSIYFRGlHyMbWFzzp
Vinod Khosla shared a Wall Street Journal video interview about job losses, capital gains, and an AI safety net, thanked WSJ and Sarah Krouse, and called it a “great conversation.” Watch the video.
Jason Lemkin promoted a new 20VC x SaaStr episode, “OpenAI Cuts to $1.25 Trillion, Anthropic’s Growth Goes From 12x to 2x, and Why Agents Are an Existential Risk to DoorDash”; the post highlights OpenAI price cuts, slower Anthropic growth, and the possibility that agents could bypass DoorDash. Episode link
Harry Stebbings called the tech show “the only show you need to listen to in tech”; the post presents it as notes with Jason Lemkin and Rory Driscoll on OpenAI, market turmoil, DoorDash/Instacart, Kalshi, and Cognition. Jason Lemkin shared it with “We’re back!!” and linked the YouTube video.
Jason Lemkin urged followers to “Learn from the best!” and linked to @samdblond’s announcement of Monaco’s Vertical Agent Meetup on Nov. 18 in San Francisco. The meetup is presented as a chance for people building specialized agents for production to learn and share practical practices, “All signal, no hype.” Announcement
Elon Musk called Gavin S. Baker’s post “Interesting” and linked to it; the post discusses Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa’s data-center policies . Baker’s post points to an interview video and notes that the data-center discussion starts at 6:30 . Musk gave no specific reason for his interest .
Jason Lemkin promoted the video “Going from 10 to 1 SDRs: How We Deployed AI Across our Sales Org”, featuring Vercel COO Jeanne DeWitt Grosser. His highlighted takeaway: Vercel ran its AI SDR in shadow mode for six weeks and reviewed every output to improve it; Grosser says it now performs like a 90th-percentile rep 100% of the time.
Garry Tan recommended watching the full conversation from Walter Isaacson’s podcast featuring Tan, saying it had gone live earlier that week; he linked to the video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aq1H71h-gYE.
Elon Musk called @Smirkley’s CNN exit-poll quadrant chart “Interesting” and linked the post—a brief positive signal, not an explicit read-or-watch recommendation. The chart compares which issues hurt or helped Republicans and how voters who called each issue crucial voted.
Martin Casado endorsed @poteto’s post on formal methods, saying it reflected his “long standing view”; the post’s takeaway is to combine formal verification, such as TLA+ with TLC, with empirical checks. Poteto also recommends trying the pstack /statechart skill to make implicit state machines easier to inspect: skill link.
5 Keys to Staying Optimistic in Tough Times
The Big Idea: Optimism isn’t just a feeling that shows up when things are going well. It’s something you can practice, especially when they aren’t.
Why It Matters: When a challenge drags on or a plan falls apart, waiting to feel positive can leave us stuck. Small, deliberate actions can help us see what’s working, respond to stress, and find a way forward without pretending everything is fine.
Try This Today: At the end of the day, write down three things that worked, even if they seem small. Give your brain a chance to notice progress alongside the problems.
These ideas come from Resilient Optimism: The Science of Sustaining a Positive Mindset in Tough Times (opens in new tab) by , a positive psychology researcher and former national CBS News anchor. Read on for five of her key insights:
Access live author Q&A’s, get audio book summaries, and other perks when you become a paid subscriber to Book of the Day.
1. Optimism is a behavior, not a feeling.
One of the biggest misconceptions about optimism is that you either feel it or you don’t. But the days we need optimism most are often the exact days when we cannot summon the feeling.
I saw this with a leader named Mark, who was overseeing a massive renewable-energy launch when everything started falling apart. A safety test failed. Investors were furious. A competitor moved ahead. His team started blaming one another. He was sleeping less, working more, and slowly losing the optimism he’d always considered part of who he was.
We didn’t try to give Mark a pep talk. We built routines. He stopped answering work email after 8 p.m. Before bed, he wrote down three small, good things from the day. And every morning his team held a 15-minute Momentum meeting: one win from yesterday, one priority for today. Then, just as things were improving, a freak flood hit the plant and destroyed half their inventory. But something was different. The team now had routines for finding progress when circumstances were hard. They salvaged what they could, rerouted supply chains, solved problems together, and eventually launched.
We don’t wait for our emotions to pivot. We pivot our behavior, and our emotions can catch up. Optimism isn’t pretending everything will work out. It’s believing that what we do still matters—and then acting accordingly. Resilient optimism isn’t denial. It’s design.
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2. Don’t start with what’s broken.
Our brains are incredibly good at finding problems. That’s useful if a tiger is chasing you. It’s less useful when you’re trying to lead a team, solve a complicated problem, or make it through a normal Tuesday.
A few years ago, Arianna Huffington and I conducted a study that changed the way I start my mornings. We exposed one group of people to just three minutes of negative news and another group to neutral content. Six to eight hours later—nearly an entire workday—the people who had watched the negative news were 27 percent more likely to report having had a negative day. Three minutes. It acted like a poison pill instead of a vitamin at breakfast.
So we ran another study. This time, people read about a serious problem, but for half of them, we added information about possible solutions. Hours later, the people who had also been exposed to solutions performed about 20 percent better on unrelated problem-solving tasks. The problem itself hadn’t changed, but the information around the problem had.
We have been taught that positive change starts by identifying everything that’s broken and fixing it. But when the brain gets flooded with problems, it can actually become worse at solving them. The alternative is not to ignore the problem. It’s to give the brain a fuller picture. What’s working? What progress have we already made? What resources do we have? What is one possible path forward? One of my favorite practices is incredibly simple: at the end of the day, write down three things that worked. They can be tiny. You are essentially giving your brain evidence it might otherwise discard. Because problems aren’t the only facts in the room. Progress is information too.
This week’s Book of the Day sponsor is Life in Perspective (opens in new tab) by Tiago Forte, the Wall Street Journal bestselling author of Building a Second Brain. Most of us plan the year ahead without ever really reckoning with the one behind us. Forte turns the annual life review into a simple, repeatable ritual, the ARC Method: Appreciate the Past, Reflect on the Present, Create the Future. Perfectly timed for year-end. Praised by Sahil Bloom, Ryder Carroll, and Amy Morin.
3. Stress isn’t the problem. Misreading it is.
Most of us have been taught to think of stress as purely negative—something to reduce, eliminate, or escape. But stress is also information.
My husband, Shawn Achor, along with researchers Alia Crum and Peter Salovey, conducted a study with stressed managers at UBS. One group learned the traditional message about stress. Another group learned that the stress response can sometimes help us focus, grow, and perform. Four months later, stress had actually gone up for everybody because the bank was in the middle of a crisis. But the people who had learned to rethink stress reported a 23 percent drop in stress-related symptoms, including headaches, backaches, and fatigue. The stress was still there. Their relationship with it had changed.
One way I practice this is by asking, “*What is my stress trying to tell me?*”** A mother I write about was furious when her teenage son came home more than 30 minutes late without answering her texts. She was ready to unload on him. Then she stopped and realized the emotion underneath her anger was fear. She was stressed because she loved him and wanted him safe. That changed how she responded. Instead of leading with anger, she explained why a simple text mattered. The next time he was late, he sent one.
Try finishing this sentence: “I’m stressed because _____ matters to me.” Stress often points toward something we value, whether that’s our family, our work, our standards, or our purpose. Once we decode the signal, we can choose what to do with the energy.
4. You cannot do everything—so choose what matters.
One of the fastest ways to drain optimism is to spend all day working incredibly hard while feeling like nothing important moved. Unfortunately, our brains make that very easy. We love small wins. Answer an email? Done. Check Slack? Done. Cross something off the list? Tiny dopamine hit. Meanwhile, the important work—the strategic thinking, the meaningful conversation, the project that could actually change something—keeps sliding to tomorrow.
I developed a practice I call Commitment Triage to interrupt that pattern. Take everything you’re doing and put it into three categories:
Core Impact List – the work and relationships that create the greatest value.
Secondary List – necessary things that support the important work.
The Not-To-Do List – things you can delegate, delay, or delete.
I worked with a therapist who was running a thriving practice, raising two kids, managing a renovation, and feeling completely depleted. She had bought a beautiful new couch and what she wanted most was simply enough time to sit on it. After triaging her commitments, she streamlined some work, delegated payroll, changed how she handled scheduling, and recovered roughly four hours a week. She finally sat on the couch.
The point isn’t to become better at squeezing more into your life. It’s almost the opposite. Every yes out there is a no in here. Every commitment costs time, energy, attention, or presence somewhere else. Resilient optimists understand that protecting those resources isn’t selfish. It’s how we remain capable of doing the work—and loving the people—that matter most.
This edition of Book of the Day is sponsored by Sequencing (opens in new tab). Go to sequencing.com (opens in new tab) and use promo code IDEA for 10% off.
5. Your optimism never affects only you.
Optimism doesn’t stop at the edge of our own brain. It travels.
In my workplace research, nearly eight in 10 people describe themselves as optimists. But over time, people have become less likely to express that optimism. They encourage new ideas less often. They share good news less often. They begin conversations positively less often. And what’s striking is that criticism hasn’t dramatically increased. More often, encouragement has simply been replaced by silence. Optimism cannot influence a culture if nobody expresses it.
Think about what happens when someone offers a new idea in a meeting and one person says, “That could actually work—tell me more.” The entire room now has a different piece of information. Or someone tells a colleague, “The way you simplified that presentation helped us make the decision.” That’s more powerful than “Great job.” It tells the person exactly what worked and what impact they had.
These moments can look trivial, but they aren’t. Culture gets built through thousands of small signals: what we notice, what we say out loud, what we reward, and what other people see us do. You don’t need a title to change the next interaction. You don’t need permission to encourage someone. You can simply create one positive dot—and give someone else something better to connect to. Optimism is not only something we experience. It’s something we broadcast. And sometimes one person going first is enough to change what happens next.
A sponsor blurb for Tiago Forte’s Life in Perspective lists Sahil Bloom among people who praised the book. It presents the ARC Method—Appreciate the Past, Reflect on the Present, Create the Future—as a repeatable annual life-review ritual, but gives no specific reason for Bloom’s praise.

