0:00All right, everybody. Welcome back to the All-In podcast, the number one podcast in the world. David Saxs and Gavin Baker are with us this week. We got a we got a short crew, but a long docket and we are going to rock it. How are you doing, Gavin? Nice to see you.
0:18You're still in that SpaceX afterlow.
0:20This is the biggest win of your career, correct?
0:24You know, it's SpaceX was a magical moment. Um there you there's only one SpaceX, but y to quote Bill Bichc, you know, it's on to Cincinnati.
0:34And there's a lot I think ahead for SpaceX. So the SpaceX story isn't over.
0:39Yeah. And you're you're only as good as your last investment in our business. I guess everybody's like, "What now?"
0:45Saxs, you're back. How are you doing, brother? How's the summer wrapping up for you?
0:48Good. I'm looking forward to talking to Gavin.
0:51Oh, fantastic. Um well, I I'll I'll try to stay with you and not step on you. You missed a really great uh discussion we had on the all in interview show with your guy Rahm Emanuel. Rahm Emanuel.
1:03How did that go? I heard actually it got kind of spicy. You know, it got super spicy. Rahm came in like full guns blazing, but it's a really great interview and uh we'll take anybody who wants to do the interview show who's running in 2028.
1:16Did you catch it, Gavin, by chance? Did you catch it?
1:18I haven't watched it yet.
1:19Okay, you got it in the queue.
1:22Of course. And basically the verdict on Rahm is that he's kind of a throwback to the Clinton Obama DNC.
1:29I think if you were thinking has no chance whatsoever in the Mandani DSA Democrat party.
1:37This is the great irony. the um and and it's a very similar moment I think to what happened in your Republican party where you had this sort of civil war internally and I'm hoping the mods the moderates have a chance here but uh you know who knows what's going to happen with these lunatic democratic socialists um we don't have too much you have a take on that on that they're taking the Democrat party I'd say his first of all he's um got incredible amount of experience having
2:05worked for Obama Clinton uh been mayor mayor of Chicago and ambassador to Japan. So he was awesome on foreign relations, etc.
2:15Yeah. And to your point, he thinks hard no on democratic socialists and the socialist policies are a road to nowhere. So he just went totally hard at it as hard as you would, Saxs. In fact, I I hope he has nothing would be greater than to have a moderate or more moderate candidates. I think we can all agree on that. Um so we'll see. We'll see. It's worth it's worth checking out. All right, let's get to the docket. Breaking news. Uh, at the time of this recording, for those of you who don't know, we record on Thursdays, publish on Fridays.
2:44Anthropic targeting a $2 trillion IPO. According to the Financial Times, this would obviously break the record setting $ 1.75 trillion IPO by SpaceX.
2:58FT reported Wednesday night that investors expect the company to go public in October which is like six to eight weeks away. This lines up with the poly market the shop sharps at poly market saying 80% chance of anthropic IPOing this year and Brad Gersonner fifth bestie uh he um he also was signaling that this would happen sooner rather than later. annualized run rate.
3:25We talked about this sax a bunch will end the year between a hundred and $120 billion dollars. This is an extraordinary ramp up of revenue that we have never seen in Silicon Valley uh at a $2 trillion valuation. Obviously, you all can do the math, but it's 16 to 20 times sales, which is a fraction of uh what SpaceX and Palunteer and some of these highly valued stocks went out at.
3:49So, pretty interesting revenue growth over the last year, 10x. Anthropic still has AI's top model, but Grock, and we're going to get into it today, is catching up quickly and OpenAI not too shabby as well. Poly Market says 67% chance that at the end of the year, Anthropic will have the top model. Breaking on Thursday, Anthropic in talks to buy an AI startup called DART for six billion.
4:16Uh their software lowers the cost of AI training and inference by making chips more efficient. I'll stop here, Gavin, if you could comment and I don't know if you're a shareholder anthropic or not.
4:29Um, so it'd be great to get that out of the way, but what's your take on just straight up the revenue ramp we're seeing here and then what to expect from an IPO?
4:40So, a few things. I'm I'm not currently an anthropic shareholder. I'd say the uh anthropic SpaceX datant uh probably came a little too late. I I don't uh generally invest in Elon's competitors. I don't think it's a wise course of action.
4:56That's right. And the Dayton was obviously Elon decided uh when he had so much extra compute with Colossus that he would rent it to Daario and Anthropic.
5:09Absolutely. And I think he almost probably more importantly got comfortable with Daario's morals and that Daario is a good person and like all humans you know to to be humanist to heir. So maybe he's made some mistakes and the way he's handled government relations but um he got comfortable that his morals were in the good place has Elon said they don't set off my evil detector and he has a pretty good evil detector.
5:35you know, he famously cut his conversation with SPF short. So, a couple of things on anthropic. You know, the the rumored numbers are exceptional.
5:44We've really never seen anything like this. You know, I I still think those moments in April and May were some of the most extraordinary moments in the history of capitalism. And what's wild to me is that probably on the margin, Anthropic is losing share to OpenAI, to open source, and to Grock. and they're still growing so fast. The numbers are still exceptional.
6:12So I think you know that speaks to the and why is that? This is like an important thing for people to understand. The pi is getting ginormous. So even if on a percentage basis Anthropic is losing on a percentage basis the real number and we talked about open source being dark tokens that aren't tracked anywhere. You know this is a major major pi growing moment. That's that's what you mean there.
6:39That's the point. I think AI broadly accelerated in the month of July which was kind of crazy to contrast with the public stock market action. Now we have a higher resolution view of what was happening. But a few things on the anthropic IPO. Listen, it's an exceptional business. They've executed really well and they haven't just executed on the model. Their products are amazing. I always think about um Eric Fishria. I don't think you've ever had on the pod. Uh but you know, I think he'd be a great guest. He's a good friend. he said had a thought experiment
7:08nearly two years ago that he thought open AAI would still and anthropic would still have a lot of value even if they lost at the model layer because the product the harness the user familiarity um it's all it's all so important and I think there's an element of truth to that but as far as the IPO listen the first thing I would just say is the two trillion I'm a little skeptical we saw this with SpaceX if you're everybody's jockeying to be lead left um
7:37philanthropic and if you lose that first thing you want to do is make whoever's lead left look bad. So you leak to the press and you say, "Hey, we're we're in the room, you know, the bar is a $2 trillion IPO."
7:52You said on a previous episode three to four trillion.
7:55Absolutely. But I think that's probably where it could where where it might trade. I mean, so they're sandbagging now.
8:01Yeah, we haven't seen the S1. You know, I do think like if you're bringing a company out responsibly, like you do you you want to price it in such a way that you can absorb the lockup because you don't want to price it really high, create a lot of volatility. That's like very disconcerting for employees and you do not want anyone distracted at this moment. So, I think that they'll price it smartly. Maybe that is two trillion.
8:24Maybe it is two and it trades to three.
8:26But you just got to remember these leaks are always coming from the bankers who probably lost lead left and they want to make Lead Left look bad. So if it comes out at two trillion, it probably means that the testing the waters and the road show just went incredibly well. Um and people they do want to own this. We've never you know these these numbers are unprecedented. So So are you saying the road show probably occurred already um or quietly occurred?
8:52No, definitely not. I'm saying if they price it at two, it means like the testing the waters went well, the road show went well, and they've got a lot of confidence about where it's going to trade.
9:03Saxs, in the history of Silicon Valley, you pointed out multiple times here during this uh podcast in 2026 that we've never seen a revenue ramp like this. Can it continue? And if it does continue, what would that say about the value of AI to corporations and enterprises where Claude is the definitive leader?
9:24Well, I think it can continue. Um although it is a legitimate question because if you're ending the year at, let's say, a hundred billion run rate up 10x plus year-over-year. And by the way, they've grown 10x year-over-year for the last 3 years. So it's growing exponentially. If that rate of growth were to continue, they'd hit a trillion dollars of ARR by the end of next year.
9:47And then the question you have to ask is, well, is the TAM big enough for that? But also, is there enough compute?
9:51Is there enough energy? I think you start to get into physical constraints. I do think the TAM is big enough. I think the demand is is going to be there. There's so many new applications of AI. Agents are just taking off now.
10:03You saw that with the launch of Grockbot. All these other companies are going to keep extending the uses of AI into more and more contexts. So the demand for tokens is just going to keep growing exponentially. I think the question is whether they can physically meet that demand and then also Gavin's point about market share. Other companies are seeing what they're doing and they're competing more effectively to take share. Remember Anthropic made this huge bet on coding and that ended up being a very preient bet. I don't
10:30know if it was because of ideology. They thought that was the way to get to recursive self-improvement first. I don't know if it was because they saw cursor that's the reason building on top of that understand yeah they they watch cursor's utilization and they said we're going to take that business and that's such an important note for you vertically yeah so they've started moving into verticals where they see their own users building successfully on top of their platform so that was you
10:59know I think that definitely was a signal to them to get into coding nonetheless they got into it first. They got into it very successfully. That led to a boom. We hear that open AI now. They've they've basically pivoted to coding. Uh they're doing a better job with that now with GPT 5.6. We've heard their growth rate is accelerating. They used to be growing at 3 to 4x a year.
11:21I've heard that over the past 2 months, that growth rate is now over 20% month over month, which if you extrapolate it out over 12 months would be a 10x growth rate. M so you're now seeing open AI growing as fast as anthropic having made that pivot. We can talk about whether you know we think SpaceX AI may be able to get there as well. But in any event, look, I think that regardless of uh whether Enthropic is able to grow 10x next year, I think they're going to
11:51grow very fast. And then the question is just what does the market share look like relative to their competitors?
11:55And I guess Gavin, it would be worth double clicking on two points there. The first point is there going to be a market for these tokens and can the growth keep up in other words is there a demand I think all three of us agree yeah sure of course there's demand but the next two pieces uh which Sax mentioned were energy data centers and that is a question I want you to answer can they get to one trillion in revenue and let's slow down here and actually
12:24try to you know do some uh back of the envelope math and this is your wheelhouse What would it take in terms of infrastructure for them to go from a hundred billion dollars a year in revenue and 10x it and is that humanly possible in the next year?
12:40So, so a few thoughts. I think it's the right questions. First, internally anthropic is very confident. I have been told um by multiple people I trust that um Daario has said that Anthropic might be the only private company in the world at some point. Think about that. And you know in this vision an anthropic maximalist vision there's anthropic and then there are governments and that's
13:09it. So there's a lot of confidence. I'm sure they have more advanced checkpoints than Fable up their sleeve. They've executed really really well. I would probably take the under on them being the only private company in the world. Um I think it's going to be a long time before they uh they they lay a rocket or they're um you know and they deliver your lunch. I don't know.
13:32There might be other businesses in the world. Zipline might want to bring you a burrito. Uber might want to take you somewhere. Whimo might want to drive you home. But sure, Dario, I might interpret that as a negative signal because it's so hubristic, you know.
13:46Yeah, this is getting into SPF land a little bit.
13:49Yes, I would certainly discourage Daario from saying that ever again to anyone.
13:56So, you don't So, AI Jesus should not claim that he is AI Jesus. Okay.
14:01Pride cometh before the fall.
14:03Yes. And that will be a longfall if if they I mean but no but look I have heard from other people at the company I I heard that when they were at about 60 billion of of ARR that they thought they could get to 600 billion in one year. So meaning they thought they were on that 10x ramp from the middle of this year. Now they're at over 80. Doesn't seem to be slowing down. So I think look I think this is the big question is you know how fast can they grow next year? Does it go all
14:31the way from 100 or 120 to a trillion dollars? Look, if they merely got to 4 to 500 billion, that would make them the biggest software company.
14:40I mean, if they get to 200 billion, that's an amazing outcome. So, yeah. Where does that put them versus Microsoft's office franchise? Like, we're or Google's search franchise like we're starting to become a peer to those two companies.
14:53100. Absolutely. And so, just just to break the question down, this is a good question into demand and supply. So demand, you know, depending on how you count it, there's, you know, 25 to, you know, 65 trillion in in knowledge work. Um 25 is is kind of a number I've used. I was told by um you know, the head of the AI institute at at one of the three largest investment banks that it was way low.
15:19So this is the TAM that they're going after today before we have robotics.
15:24And then it's a question of is it labor substitution or accelerating growth?
15:29Thus far, it really does look like it's accelerating growth. There are, you know, there are more job openings for software coders today than there were a year ago. There's more demand for coders and that is the kind of in the epicenter of the blast zone. There is some evidence that for very young people coming, you know, right out of college.
15:50Uh for, you know, that that maybe there's there's been a negative impact.
15:54Um, but broadly speaking, it has to come from one of those two. And I just think it's, you know, we um it's better for everyone if it comes from accelerating growth. And and these companies are now at a scale where it's going to if it's going to come from accelerating growth, we will start to see that in the national accounts over the next 18 months.
16:15I am going to Okay. You want to go to the um energy part supply?
16:20Yeah. And listen, this is this is, you know, where kind of the rubber meets the proverbial road. Like I um you know, the people who build these data centers, you know, like the the best way to understand it is go watch that series Land Man. And it's like you need like Billy Bob Thornton's out there, you know, per basin time.
16:41The Per Basin, you're in the patch. You know, you're actually worried about Narcos. you know, it is it's the tip of the spear. It's like 110° heat. Um, you have to orchestrate thousands of people in these remote locations to get it's not bits.
17:03It's atoms, not bits. And it's really, really hard. Now, America, we're actually really good once we gear up for something like that. America and capitalism, we're very good at solving those problems. Everybody talks about like the ultimate constraint are these turbine blades and you know they're only made in like two facilities in America and in Europe and like each facility is like you know a giant building and
17:31there's some 40tonon press but you know what now they're running you know 24-hour shifts they're getting you know they can is in fact the mother of innovation and nothing like capitalism will make that happen.
17:44Boom. Supersonic making uh a new jet for, you know, Supersonic. I know Sax has one on deposit. Those jets. He's like, "You know what? We're going to build a turbine business first because we have so much demand." And then Elon, I understand there was a news report that he bought a turbine company and he did it personally because that speaks to me that he just wanted to go fast.
18:05Right. And on top of that, you know, I you know, residuals for um private jets are like extremely strong these days. And a big a big part of the reason is people are taking jet jet engines off old planes and repurposing them as turbines to power data centers 100%.
18:27It's crazy. This is this is like a big business um and growing really really fast. And then you know you have Caterpillar, you have Cumins, you have Cheeky Vernova, you have Seammen's Energy, they are all expanding capacity fast. So I think the supply question, you know, the the Billy Bob Thornton here in America, you know, are going to work with with those companies and get these turbines on the ground. It's politics and its regulation and the fact that Texas, you know, has kind of
18:55announced, you know, what I think is probably energy audit is what you're referring to. Governor Abbott announced this week he's going to do an energy audit.
19:04Not that he's going to slow things down, not that there's a moratorum, but that everybody has to go through an energy audit. If you boe, you're going to be fine. But if you don't have a solution for that, and you want to tap the Texas, the great state of Texas's grid, uh you're going to need to maybe pass some audit because we don't want the whole grid going down here, which it does every January when things freeze over.
19:28Yeah. And it's like right now the narrative on AI is not good. It's that a data center takes all the water because someone made a mistake in a book three years ago and they're off by I think a factor of a 100,000 in the amount of water a data center uses. So it's just wrong. They raise your cost of electricity which is just wrong. They lower your cost of electricity. The Wall Street Journal just read a written a story about a town called Ellenale where like it was a dying town. A data center got built. It's revitalized the town.
19:56Tax revenue is 10xed. It's been the best thing that's ever happened. But nobody's telling those stories and people need to. And I think, you know, we've discussed on the show many times, the Chinese Communist Party, they do have a very active anti- AI, anti-data center campaign because that's what's good for them and bad for America. And someone needs to tell the truth about AI. One of the best phrases in the Bible is the truth shall set you free.
20:21Can't set you free if nobody tells the truth.
20:26Yeah. I mean, the data center panic is a testament to the power of the media to create hoaxes and hysteria over literally nothing. Every single aspect of the data center story is wrong. It's a lie. Like you said, they don't use up a community's water. The water use is quite manageable, less than a golf course. The water recirculates. It brings down electricity costs assuming
20:53that you have the uh data center stand up its own power generation because they will sell the excess back to the grid and they pay for grid upgrade costs. The real reason why electricity prices are rising in blue states is because of decarbonization and all the other you know green type regulations they have that make power generation more difficult. Um what are the other accusations? No, I mean those are well noiseion. Yeah, the noise pollution is legit. So there's nobody in their right mind.
21:22They don't put it in anyone's backyard.
21:24Yeah. Nobody in their mind is doing that today. We have a lot of people in this country.
21:28Yeah. People did do that for a bit.
21:30If we just use common sense. Yes. Common sense. You just use common sense and there's no problem. The idea that you have to have a complete ban on data center construction is just silly.
21:41And the communities that are embracing them are seeing they have better schools. they have better services because they're making a lot of revenue.
21:48Well, and then to your point, Saxs, when you know entrepreneurs get on something, we're all of a sudden seeing solar, batteries, nuclear, and more clean energy being tapped to power these. And that demand will lower the prices of those services over time. Solar panels will get cheaper, batteries will get cheaper because they're going to be scaled much faster, which is good for humanity. This is basic, folks. It's very basic.
22:12The green stuff can't scale in the short term. It's all gas powered um for the the new data centers. That's the only way to kind of get the amount of scale that you need in the next year or two. But but in any event, look, you that the I think the solar is more like, you know, it it'll be viable, but you know, it's obviously not as fast as popping up neck gas.
22:32Yeah, I largely agree. Um I will say, you know, Elon's building a $10 billion new solar manufacturing plant in in Texas for a reason, my home state. And you know, I think solar the world will eventually run on sunlight.
22:44But we're going to run on natural gas for a while. We have a lot of natural gas in America. It's a clean fuel. It's the greenest carbon fuel. And just this media hysteria about data centers. It is doing such a disservice to lowincome Americans, to smalltown Americans, often to minority Americans. It's just it is it's so good in every way. and the media is doing such a disservice, but no one's
23:12taking the other side and someone needs to take the other side and tell the truth.
23:17Yeah. Well, it's uh I I don't know who's relying on the media for their facts now, but I think there's a reason why we were number four in the world last week is because hey, listen, we actually are part of this buildout. We know about it and we can explain it to you a little bit more succinctly. Noise pollution, that's an issue. Pollution of the air, that is an issue from NAC. keep these things far away from people as Sax just said and you don't have as much of an
23:44issue. There is a minor issue if you put these at scale in a certain location you can raise the temperature of that valley or wherever you put it a couple of degrees that's something worth monitoring. These are all absolutely manageable issues. And if you really want to get obsessed about water, please, for the love of God, stop eating almonds. Like, and maybe like, you know, the golf course doesn't have to use a billion gallons of water every year. I will say on the demand side and on the
24:13pricing side, if you pull up this quick note I have here, I I think Anthropics growth rate is going to slow considerably next year. And it's been obviously on a tear. there's no way they get to a trillion in revenue next year.
24:28Uh I think maybe they could, you know, triple get to three or 400 million. And the reason is watching startups and then also watching some of the large companies now embrace GLM52 and Zuckerberg, which we'll get to in a moment, releasing really great open-source models. You just look at the pricing here of GLM2 versus Claude Opus.
24:48And you know, it is 90% cheaper to use these products. I'm using them. the founders I invest in are using them and increasingly corporate America is going to embrace these solutions. It's just a little bit harder to set them up and it's coming folks. And if you think it's not that corporate America is not going to embrace open source, you have not been paying attention to the last 20 years when they did exactly that. And 20 years ago there was a big argument, oh
25:16my god, corporate America will never trust open source. And corporate America said, "We don't want to get rug pulled or have some large tech corporation hold us hostage for their technology, which they're experts at doing." So open source is the safer bet for us. And that's what's happening in corporate America today and inside of startups. This is going to be very real. Gavin, this is like you're jumping out of your seat.
25:41Yeah. No, no, this is this is a larger point like like for sure it's good for corporate America. For sure open source is good for the world. for sure it's good for America. But you know, Dorcash posted something. Doresh um who's who's a podcaster, thoughtful guy, close to the AI scene.
25:56He um he posted something that really resonated with me. He said, "At the end of the day, Anthropics AI and their constitution. It is wired to do what Anthropics thinks is best for humanity."
26:09And let's let's take Elon's judgment as goldplated. And he's right. his don't be evil detector did not go off and and they're genuinely good people which I actually believe them to be who are doing what they think is good for humanity. I actually believe that the problem is like you know there are always unintended consequences and the world is is chaotic and unpredictable and I just think what's great about open
26:37source is it means that we're going to have a rich variety of AIs. We're going to have diversity of AIS and that is a good world for humans in America. We do not want one, two or three dominant models. And that's why, by the way, you know, not to, you know, don't want to always talk about Grock, but it's great.
26:55I think it's Elon will history will judge Elon kindly for having rock dedicated towards the pursuit of objective truth.
27:06Yeah. Talk that book. You made a The whole point, Gavin, is if you made the bet, that means you used your intelligence and your savvy to pick the what you think the winner is. That actually is, I think, super accurate.
27:18And I think Elon um explicitly believes in open source and he believes that this is a technology that should be shared for the good of it. And in fact that was his first foray into this which was backing open AI and OpenAI's manifesto was rewritten this week topic two by Mark Zuckerberg quite paradoxically or ironically in an 6500word essay. It's titled the future is for everyone the
27:46path to a positive AI future. He laid out an extremely optimistic AI worldview where uh he would as now open AI 2.0 Facebook he would release open source models he would create an agent for everybody. He would make it free. He would provide everybody in the world with their own tutor and unlimited abundance. He has picked up the abundance crown which Sam Waltman dropped when he went for the private
28:15company and he says super intelligence is invention not automation and that AI safety should be based on the balance of power no singular centralized intelligence. I'm assuming saxs you read or scanned or got the coverage of Zuckerberg's manifesto and do you have any thoughts on his positioning?
28:38Yeah, I mean I read it and I found myself nodding in agreement with much of it. Uh I really like the point he made pretty early on where he pointed out that a lot of the the doomers and I think he was kind of taking a shot at the effect of altruist and anthropic. He said Dario he said look why are you guys rushing to create a future that you don't believe in that that is so dystopian. you know, if you think this is such a bad future where everyone's out of work and AI goes rogue and creates all these safety issues, why are
29:08you so excited about creating it? So, I I think he does point out a fundamental contradiction. Now, there is an answer to that question, which is actually there's two answers. One is they could be trying to create a future they don't believe in for let's call it mercenary reasons. It could be lucrative, although I don't think that's the real reason. I think most of those guys are missionaries and what they believe is that that future is dangerous and only under their enlightened control can humanity be protected. It's right
29:36out of the vision of the anointed which was a book Thomas Soul wrote 30 years ago where intellectuals throughout history have thought that if they're maximally empowered then they can engineer society in a more benevolent direction.
29:52And this has always backfired. It's always led to not just empty or broken promises, but also it becomes an excuse for totalitarian schemes and state power. And actually Zuckerberg goes on to say something that I think gets at this. So right after he kind of made the point about, you know, why are you rushing to build a future that you don't believe in, you don't want, he says, the notion that AI is so dangerous that the only safe path is an
30:20extreme concentration of power seems inherently problematic. Historically, hoping that an absolute power will benevolently provide for humanity, if sufficiently enlightened, has not led to safe or positive outcomes. So I think the point he's getting at here is that a major frame on the whole AI debate is not just about open or closed. It's also about centralized versus decentralized.
30:45And whether you think a centralized outcome is the right outcome or a decentralized outcome. I'm on the side of decentralized.
30:51I mean, how could you not be on the side of decentralized? I mean, it's like the most obvious argument ever.
30:57The e the EA types are not. And and by the way, they're delusional.
31:01Well, I experienced this when I got to Washington. And you know all the former Biden people had just moved over to Anthropy's government affairs. I also dealt with think tank people who are part of this like click and their their frame on AI was that it was inherently dangerous and that we had to centralize control over it in the government. There should be you know just two or three companies and they should essentially work together. It should be made into a cartel. remember, you know, Mark Andre had a meeting with those Biden officials where he came out,
31:30don't bother don't bother meeting.
31:33They they dispute that characterization.
31:35Maybe they didn't use those words exactly, but I do believe that Mark was correct in his interpretation of what he heard because I heard similar things and they really believe that the way to control what they essentially thought as of being malign or at least very dangerous was first you limit it all to the United States. So you don't export the chips, you don't export the models.
31:59It's basically you retain total control over it in the US, which frankly is a pipe dream because the rest of the world is going to get AI. The idea that you could but any but that was sort of part number one. And then part number two was you form like an atomic energy commission or something like that to cartilize the industry and um and then you have it deeply embedded with the government. You effectively have a merger of um sort of corporate and state power. So, it was this extremely centralized vision of the future. I think they still believe in that to some
32:28degree and clearly Zuckerberg listens to the All-In podcast. And clearly, I think we have a seat open next week. Mark Zuckerberg, can somebody reach out to him? Come on the pod next week. Thursdays, we'll tape at about 10 11:00 a.m. your time. Whether you're in Hawaii or um in Tahoe, we will get a Starling to you and you can do it from your e- foil guaranteed.
32:48Uh but it would be great to have on the Let me get Gavin involved. Yeah. Well, let me just just so just to wrap up though, I think where Zuckerberg goes with this that I agree is we want maximum empowerment of the individual.
33:00That's the way to solve this problem. We want decentralized outcomes. We want open models like you're saying JCAL. We want data sovereignty. Look, there can also be these proprietary frontier models from anthropic and open AI, but we want to create a a decentralized empowering outcome for individuals. And I think that's the side that Zuck is on. And I very much agree with that.
33:22Gavin, I assume you read it. Yeah. Or did you just get the you didn't read that? You didn't have time for 6,500 words.
33:28If he writes, by the way, if he writes nine more, he's got the average non-fiction book, which is right around 60,000 70,000 words. So Harper Business Hollis, go call Zuckerberg and get the the other eight parts of this manifesto going.
33:40I read it. I agreed with it. And I would just super agree with everything David said and I would I would boil it down to I think anthropic and people in the effect of altruism movement believe that this technology is too dangerous to distribute.
33:54And what Mark Zuckerberg and I think Elon and Jensen believe is that this technology is too dangerous to centralize. and history has spoken and when given the choice it is always better to distribute and decentralize there is there's really no counter example that I can think of and just forget as an American but as a human I
34:22want an AI that looks out for me looks out for me the individual be the individual sovereign individual was aver individual. Yes.
34:33Yeah. My conception of what's good for America. I do not want Dario Amod or Anthropic deciding what's in my best interests.
34:42I I just fundamentally don't want that.
34:44You don't trust AI Jesus.
34:46I don't I mean I AI Jesus seems like he seems like a he seems like a great guy, you know. Although it is funny, somebody said he was cursed with resting smiling face and it is a little to listen to him talk about this terrible vision for humanity while he's smiling happily. It's hilarious.
35:06He's literally got that grin on while he explains to you the Terminator scenario and that only he can save us and that even he doesn't know that like there's a 20% chance that he might not be able to save us all. Gavin, I love that framing about it being too dangerous to centralize. And I think one other closely analogous point is what you think about competition. So I think that the EA's think that competition will create a race to the bottom and will create a lack of safety whereas what I believe is that competition brings out
35:36the best. And so they think it brings out the worst. Now look, there are examples of probably both. But fundamentally they want to centralize control and have less competition. We want to decentralize and have more competition.
35:50I want I want in the Constitution I have the right to bear arms and I think that's that's important. I grew up in Texas. I think it is kind of like a side of defense against tyranny. I I love it when you're coming home.
36:01I'll be back soon. I promise.
36:03But I want the right to have my own AI. I want the right to my own AI where I you know it its values are aligned with me, not someone as good a person as they might be.
36:17The the right to bear arms is a good analogy because we do allow you to have a gun even though you might misuse it. Guns are used to like kill things, right? Whereas AI has a much more creative use and much more solutary uses. It's uh beneficial fundamentally. It's a consumer technology that everyone's going to want to use. So, you know, if we allow you to have guns, I agree, you should be allowed to have AI.
36:38Let me correct you there, uh, Sax, now that you're in the great state of Texas with me. Uh, guns also help you feed your family and defend you against evil forces in the world. So, those are virtuous uses of a gun.
36:48Yeah, I get it. They are that self-defense, but I'm saying you'd still use the gun to kill the you use the use the gun to to kill or hurt the person in self-defense. I get it. I'm not against I think this is the delusion of Daario. If we if we think about it with these, you know, effective altruists, you can look it up folks, but they think that basically they're going to make all the money in the world, create the one company, the money printing machine, and then they're going to save all of us. It's massive delusions of grandeur that, you know, is is the technology is going to diffuse
37:18anyway. This idea that you keep the genie in the bottle is absurd. But, by the way, well, they're treating it. I think Sachs, the way they view it is they view this literally as super intelligence and the nuclear bomb. And if you convince yourself that you're building the nuclear bomb and you're building the terminator that you yourself cannot control and it's super intelligence that will make a a billion terminators and a billion bombs, they literally have
37:45diluted themselves while taking pod or LSD at Burning Man that this is the reality. It's not the reality. You could unplug it at any time.
37:55They're suffering from delusions of grandeur. Period. Full stop. This is not the nuclear bomb.
38:02Well, you're you're right about that.
38:04When I first came into Washington, that was the dominant analogy that they and their their sort of related think tanks, their people in their group had promoted, this idea that AI was like a nuclear weapon and we needed an atomic energy commission, a global one to regulate this total pipe dream never going to happen. But you're right that they were using that analogy. And I think the reason why they were using that analogy is because you do not have a right to basically have a nuclear weapon to build your own nuclear weapon.
38:29You have you have the right to a gun but not a nuclear weapon. So they wanted to put AI in that bucket. But as Jensen has said, no individual, no consumer needs a nuclear weapon. Every consumer, every business needs AI. It's fundamentally different. This is a consumer technology. It's a cons it's a consumer technology before it's a military technology. And this idea of that it's like primarily um like a nuclear bomb is just kind of absurd.
38:54I mean in fairness in fairness, Gavin, Cyberdine Industries, they also thought they were building good technology. So science fiction has literally polluted people's brains.
39:06If we're going to have a Terminator thing, I want my own Terminators who like me. Okay.
39:10Open source the Terminator.
39:11Oh, but yeah, but like what just simply just boiling everything else like I'm an American. I'm a patriot. If we ban open source, if we let this control be centralized, we will lose AI, we will lose geopolitics, we will lose everything to China. It's just that simple. So, if you're an American patriot, you should be for the distribution, democratization, decentralization, individualization of this technology. Hey, Jal, man, what what are your thoughts? What are your thoughts on what are your thoughts on
39:41the essay? Uh well, like you Sax, I found myself I found myself nodding the whole way because I think he took he kind of like ran in front of the uh parade and grabbed the baton and was like, I agree with the best takes here and the best take is open source empowering the individual and this isn't nuclear technology. I just want to point out two other points uh that I think got buried because he did try to cover a lot of ground. The first is I want to give him credit for his view of
40:10specifically job displacement because he says hey listen you know that is possible job displacement but he says people fear that automation will outpace individuals uh capability growth leading to job displacement followed by a difficult period as people learn new jobs. I think we can all agree that that is a concern.
40:28But there is no rule that AI must increase automation faster than it increases individuals capabilities or demand for new skills. Recent statistics suggest it may be more likely that individuals capability growth could match or outpace automation. I thought this is like a really good framing and is just another way of saying what uh Jensen said. Hey, you're not going to lose your job to AI, you're going to lose it to somebody with AI. And that's the game on the field right now. you know, I every time I use this technology, three new business
40:58opportunities open up and I create two more job wrecks and people are doing five or 10 times as much work if they embrace the technology. And that that's a big if there and if people will do it.
41:08The second thing I thought was pretty interesting was he makes a play on having the right to index anybody's content and learn from it. The quote he says here is all AI models are derived from human knowledge. Okay, fair enough.
41:22Um, it's pretty pretty plain vanilla there. Some have tried to frame distillation as harmful, but I think it's important to protect the principle that you can learn from anything you can observe. In other words, he's preemptively saying, I want to scan the world's data. Well, I have a message for him, which is Zuckerberg, please explain how this concept is compatible with the fact that you have sued every startup, many of which I've invested in, that has ever tried to index or use the social
41:50graph at Instagram or Facebook. They have hundreds of lawsuits where they have sued people for trying to distill, you know, who are the top influencers on Instagram, who are who's in my social graph, and they lock that whole thing down. So there's a bit of hypocrisy here that reminded me Saxs of our discussion on previous episodes with Claude ripping apart old books and we had the distillation debate many times. Yeah, let me just go back to this
42:18point about there's a huge irony in the fact that Daario did not get his way in Washington for the most part during this administration because I think if he had gotten his way, if he had realized his dream of this highly regulated AI apparatus, I don't think that company would be set up for a hugely successful IPO. Why? because their whole right to charge this massive premium for tokens which Jal that's the point you were making before is you're wondering how
42:48sustainable that is because of all these open models that are coming up and are offering tokens for much less their whole pricing power that premium they're able to charge is because they're 6 months ahead of those open models and that 6 months be eaten up in the blink of an eye if they were subject to regulatory approval Dario himself keeps writing these blog posts where he says we need an FAA for AI you You know how long it takes the FAA to certify and approve a new model? In this case, for
43:15airframes, minimum of 5 years.
43:18I mean, if you want to change a table in your plane, it takes eight years.
43:23You know how long it takes the FDA to approve a new medicine? Years. Okay?
43:27You're going to apply that regulatory framework to AI model releases?
43:31Forget about it. Your six months will be gone like that. Your model will be commoditized. To Gavin's point, the Chinese competitors will catch up and that's bad for the United States. It's bad for our competitiveness. It's bad for the AI race. I mean, obviously, we don't want China beating us, but aside from just the geopolitical dimension, it'd be horrible for Anthropic as a company because again, all their pricing power depends on them remaining in the lead by six months. If they ever slip up, hold
44:01on. If they ever slip up and lose that six months, what does that do to revenue?
44:07Exactly. So now look, I actually think that their pricing power may be quite sustainable because I think people are willing to pay, not the whole market, not the whole market, but a decent subset of the market is willing to pay a premium for true frontier intelligence.
44:23So as long as if the top 20% sax, if the top 20% is willing to pay 10x, they're golden, right? like just like I said before, it's Apple versus Android, right? Most of the market is willing to go with Android. It's cheaper, but there's a significant subset of the market that's willing to pay a huge premium for Apple because it's a better experience. Same thing if you're a company that's in a competitive market and you want the absolute best for competitive or other reasons, you're going to pay premium for true frontier
44:52intelligence. But Anthropic and Open AAI are on that hamster wheel. They have to stay in the lead in order to justify that premium. And by the way, I think they can and they think they can and they think in fact their elite is growing because they're on the way to recursive self-improvement.
45:06I just want to make another point about the going direct movement. Zuck has had his Twitter account since the beginning when he tried to buy the company at think d f i n k d which was his handle in college I believe. And in the last 30 or 60 days, Nikesh from Palo Alto Network's friend of the pod, he started tweeting and doing long form.
45:28Jensen opened an ex account. He started going long form. Thanks for the follow, Jensen. Uh, and then Zuckerberg has activated his account and he's going direct. And I want to just point out that Zuckerberg previously I think was letting other people craft his message and send it to the market. And I think he has matured and decided I am going to write my own missive. This missive I believe was written by him probably with
45:57some help but I ran it through an AI detector. It's 100% humaned bespoke human words. I think it's fantastic that he's now getting ahead and saying these are the potential problems in the future. And it would have been so great if he had done that with teenage girls and the impact of social media on kids and addiction with Instagram and Facebook earlier on. I give him a lot of credit for deciding I will go direct. I will write my essay. I will speak my truth. And man, X is getting
46:27exceptional at these dialogues and these missives now. It's fantastic.
46:32Yeah. So I propoundly agree everything you said and I want to come back to a couple of things that that Sax said about the comput about how um open source actually makes anthropic more valuable and computational efficiency of humans is the bookcase for humans. But I think what you said is like really important. If you are a public figure, if you were the CEO of a company and you do not have your own voice on X, you are at risk. It's just that simple.
47:00Risk of what? Unpackage. you you you ultimately in the same department as the truth shall set you free. The only person who can tell someone's own individual truth is themselves in their own authentic words. And you know, obviously Mark Zuckerberg has super voting stock. He's never going to be, you know, thrown out of out of meta. But there's many CEOs who think, oh, you know, my corporate PR department's keeping my me safe. They're my voice.
47:28Well, guess what? You know, maybe you retire. maybe the next CEO doesn't like you and you get called in front of Congress. And I do think, you know, at some point, you know, the Democrats, you know, talked about how they're going to have an accountability agenda and they're going to go after everyone. And I mean, I'm not sure that's like a good message for the Democrats. But be that as it may, if you do not have your own voice and your own brand on X, you are at risk.
47:57And having your having your own voice, Yeah. It is protection. It's power. It's got armor. And I think it's a sigil.
48:04Yeah. Yeah. It is a superpower. And I I don't know about you, Saxs, but I am loving Zuckerberg's Jeremy Strong era. Much better than the Jesse Eisenberg.
48:12Have you seen him doing this uh MMA stuff? I see. There's a video of him on like a barge or something.
48:17On a floating a floating platoon. What is that? A barge in Lake Tahoe?
48:22Yeah. Dude is I would be careful. I'd be careful about saying bad things about him. Jay Cal.
48:26No, no, no. I am I listen I have too have turned over a new leaf. I am I am I'm I'm into Zuck 2.0. I hope he likes Jake Allen 3.0.
48:34Come on the pod Zuck.
48:36I want him on the E foil with the American flag every fourth of July and I want it like live streamed and if he falls that would be a maxing for him. If he gets back up and records again it does it live.
48:49Yo, he's got to do that in Kawaii with the bull sharks. Let me see some fins chasing him. He is Laura farming times a thousand. Way to go, Zuck.
48:59And like we need more of this like authenticity CEO. Go direct% man. Go direct. Protect yourself.
49:06Yeah. And be yourself, man. And like he's being himself and like he's a good guy.
49:11It's all good, folks.
49:12There's two points that I think are really important. Open source makes Frontier tokens more valuable. So like let's just say let's let's to use an example. Let's say that, you know, Enthropic, OpenAI, and Grock, they're at like a 250 IQ or 200 IQ. Well, if you have a 200 or 250 IQ intellect that can orchestrate these open-source 150 IQ intellects, like that that's actually more that makes the 250
49:40IQ intellect more valuable is because it can farm out past. And just in the same way, you know, if we're gonna use the Manhattan Project analogy, you know, everybody, you know, talks, you know, talks about um Richard Fineman and, you know, who's the guy who ran it all? And you know, there's these 10 really smart physicists. Who's the guy who ran it?
49:58Um, you know, who said I become death?
50:01Um, who's the guy who ran the Manhattan Project? Come on, somebody. Oppenheimer. Yeah, you had Oenheimer and you had 10, you know, effectively Nobel laureates, maybe 30 of them, but they needed like the 2,000, you know, merely, you know, top 10,000 in the world physicists. So having more having more affordable intelligence, it actually makes the frontier even more valuable. And I think a very plausible outcome is one in which Frontier tokens
50:32are 65 to 85% of the economic value um open source tokens are like 80% of the volume and that's good for everyone and everyone wins.
50:42Tell me the revenue Gavin Baker of Anthropic by the end of 2027. What is their 2027 revenue if 2026 ends at exactly 100 billion? What is their 2027 revenue?
50:56I will I will take the over over what trillion.
51:00A lot of estimates. I'm not going to take the over on a trillion.
51:02Okay. I'm going to put 500 billion over or under Gavin Baker.
51:07How about this? I'm going to take the over.
51:10No, I'm going to take the over. Whatever the Wall Street consensus is for 27, which I don't know. I'll take a a 25 to 30% over on that assuming that this regulation campaign doesn't basically going out on a limb here saying that the underwriters are going to sandbag revenue. Okay, congratulations Gavin.
51:30Give me my answer. Over 500 or under.
51:34I I think four to five I think four to 500 billion is within the zone.
51:41Of like realistic and achievable. Can I just say one other thing?
51:44Hold on. Under 500 billion, Sachs.
51:47I actually was going to say 4 to 500 billion as exit ARR for next year. Uh seems very comfortable.
51:53So right under. Okay, great. Two unders.
51:56Yeah. And and the only reason, you know, it's not higher is because I just I I I do think that somehow you get into physical limitations at that point.
52:05But maybe not, you know, maybe there'll be enough compute.
52:07I mean, also, you know, there is competition. We all believe that they're going to hit 400 billion next year and they're going to 4x 4x 100 billion. Like just let it keep in mind they'll be at 120. So I guess that you know implies, you know, 4x would be more like 500 4x. Yeah. That's kind I think the overunder really is, you know, I think the overunder really is 500 billion exit ARR for next year. And I think they think they'll they'll do the over.
52:35We were talking about them at 10 billion 10 months ago. 10 billion to 400 billion is 40x gentlemen.
52:44Are they going to thank me for preventing Daario from shooting himself in the foot?
52:47I think he literally was like he put two guns on two ankles and he just emptied both clips and you had taken the bullets out. They should give you 1%.
52:59I actually don't think the bullets were taken out. I think he had the pointed in his temples. Oh, just saying diddy mau he did the deer hunter and saxs and sachs pulled him down and like he just shot himself in the foot.
53:11This is where their hostility to open models comes from I think is that if they're going to slow down they have to slow down the open models as well otherwise they do get commoditized and their business goes away. However, the United States does not have jurisdiction over what happens in China and China was not going to slow down.
53:28was always I think a huge flaw in this in this whole conception. These EA types thought they're going to institute global compute governance. Somehow they're going to get like some global agreement with China. Total pipe dream never going to happen. If we slow down, China is just going to race ahead. It was I think was going to create the Accords 2.0 and that didn't work. So yeah, slow your roll kid.
53:50Can I just say one thing that I think is also important about open source and just like why I think AI is going to be good for humans. going to be good for Americans.
53:58It's that like if we are short compute, we talking about compute slowing down anthropics growth because literally we're just, you know, we're running out of energy. We're we can't bring on Yeah, we're running into physics and like, you know, planetary scale limitations. And I think this is like this is a reality.
54:17Just think about how energy efficient we are. all of our brains. To approximate our brains, you need to have a data center that consumes the power of a million American homes running for probably 6 to n months. And then you get our brains and then every time you want to answer a question, you need you need the power of like a thousand American homes, okay, to operate at the level of
54:45our minds. You know, we're smart. We're smart, but like and that all those figures are going to get better, but we're so energyefficient capitalism there. It's there's going to be a use for the most computationally efficient intelligences on planet Earth and those are human intelligences.
55:04Uh it's it's so well said because if you look at what Cerebrus and Grock and Nvidia are up to, they're making inference 10 times, five times every year. And you're the chipm here, Gavin. But they they'll be five to ten times more efficient every 12 to 18 months.
55:19Then you look at the models. And by the way, congratulations. You got Zuckerberg on your ass. Go ask MySpace. Go ask Snapchat what it's like to have Zuckerberg in the rearview mirror.
55:31That's literally the T-Rex coming at the frontier models. He is a beast at copying, mimicking, and competing. He's going to be the open- source hero from America. He is gonna have the best open source model in the next year. I guarantee it. Here on the audience, I might take I might take the uh under and just there's another there's another American hero.
55:54Uh Jensen Wang and like Okay, Nemo.
55:58You might see you might see Nvidia at the open.
56:01He doesn't like us talking about that. I got the back channel. He's like we're not in the open source business. I mean we do have Neotrod and we can't give you a full stack but one of the hyperscalers by the way that we know Gavin one of the hyperscalers told me they just did a 9 figure double Lindy reverse where they went from doing a frontier model on 100 billion dollars in infrastructure and they're like it's going to be open
56:30source not Frontier. So people are looking at this saying it's time to maybe move over to some open source models. All right listen all in summit is coming September 13th 15th in Los Angeles.
56:46We told you about the Giants last week Jensen Satia Jared Gwen I mean all firstname club but here we go. Steve Hilton running for governor of California is going to come. Spencer Pratt going to talk about his failed LA run but successful in terms of capturing people's imagination. Abigail Shrier, author of Bad Therapy, a fantastic book, is going to be with us with a very special surprise guest. And uh hey,
57:14Bestie Gavin, our guy Bestie Gavin might even make an appearance. and my guy Blake Scho, CEO of Boom Supersonic, who I mentioned earlier in the program. And this year, we're going to turn the outside of the shrine into a festival-like experience from you for you, a Frontier Tech Hub featuring AI and robotics demos and a gifting suite. The gifting suite like you're a celebrity.
57:44Merch.com has made an incredible all-in swag suite for you. Wellness suite with red light therapy facials and IVs. If you uh Hey, you you stay out a little too late, Saxy Poo. That sometimes happens. Don't miss these important conversations. And by the way, we're going to announce all the DJs and parties, which is the reason Freeberg does this. Gonna blow your mind. The all-inssummit.com
58:11to apply today. Go ahead and apply. Hey, speaking of our guy Jensen, sixth bestie here on the pod, uh, Nvidia is partnering with Goldman, Black Rockck, and others to raise 500 billion in AI compute. Jensen laid out his vision in an X article, as we mentioned. Jensen is now on X titled, "Nvidia AI factory compute is becoming an investable asset class. The firms will establish
58:39independent financing platforms raising thirdparty capital." The idea is to treat GPUs like a financable incomeroucing asset like a maybe mortgage back securities or hopefully not with the same outcome. Here's how it works at a basic level. Instead of a company paying billions to buy chips up front, they borrow money. They buy Nvidia based systems and use them to start generating revenue i.e. renting compute. Uh and then they can use the cash flows to pay back the loan.
59:06Nvidia's role is matchmaker connecting customers who need compute with lenders. Obviously GM, Ford have their own uh finance divisions. Gavin, uh what do you think of this announcement visav round tripping and the hand ringing and concerns we talked about on this very podcast a year or two ago? Well, I do think what's important here is what is what what's essentially happened is like Blackstone, KKR, these firms, Goldman Sachs, they would not would not
59:40have done this. They would have not have done that CNBC um episode with Jensen if they did not believe that Nvidia GPU compute was a financable asset. And so what's really smart here is you're getting, you know, some of the smartest asset managers in the world, you know, who charge 2 and 20 for many products to essentially validate this market. And Nvidia is being a matchmaker. And what they're basically saying is, hey, our compute, because it's so flexible, is
1:00:08going to have a long enough life that you can finance it at lower rates than other um kinds of compute. And I think and I think that's that that's smart.
1:00:17That's good for everyone. And it is interesting if you look at the underlying architectures of the three what I call big Chinese open source models and maybe even throw a few or four you know if we have um Quinn if we have Kimmy if we have DeepSync um and then we have GLM they're actually evolving in very different ways and that architectural variation works in Nvidia's favor and in GPU's favor um
1:00:45because it means that you do need this more flexible compute to be able to finance it to be able to think that you can have a long life. But what what Nvidia is doing that I think is really smart is they're saying hey we are going to help create this market grow this market but what they're going to provide two very important functions they're going to say hey um Blackstone Goldman
1:01:10Sachs KKR Apollo Black Rockck um I'm leaving someone out and I'm so sorry there are six of them come to us if you have a deal you can bring it to us and we will give a residual value guarantee and I think the way that that residual which will further lower the cost of financing these and that residual value guarantee can then be incorporated into
1:01:38those companies underwriting and what that basically means is they're saying that after 3 years four years we guarantee that these GPUs can be rented at a certain rate and then the risk that they are bearing is the risk between that that value um and wherever the market rate is and right now everything's going straight up Nvidia has better telemetry than almost anyone
1:02:08and to the supply and demand of compute so they can put that at a very very smart place um further make it financable you're risking you know they're only bearing ing 25% of the risk the world's some of the world's smartest underwriters you know in terms of reputation what could go wrong Gavin I mentioned mortgage back securities etc and obviously the lifespan is the key issue here um the different hyperscalers were
1:02:38saying hey four five six years Amazon and the big debate happened but what we've seen is to your point with the open source models is they can be uh tweaked to run on the oldest hardware so maybe we get years six eight out of these is that's more than that. Corweave said that they are renting ampiers at economically profitable rates today for 2029.
1:03:03So an amp year that came out in 2020 is going to have a 9year life. And I think that's what Nvidia sees. You know, it's like old American cars, they get sent overseas. Like just the idea that the Where could it go wrong? That's here. I'll tell you where it could go wrong. In theory, in theory, just so we're we're we're steel man.
1:03:24The biggest risk is to me is not on the demand side. The biggest risk is that you get a glut of compute and you get an overbuild. And in the same way that we had dark fiber after the dotcom crash, if you had dark GPUs, that'd be a disaster for everyone. Especially if you built out your compute infrastructure expecting a spot price of $30 to $50 a watt as you know Elon said that they were expecting right so if all of a sudden there are too many people racing
1:03:53to provide this compute and now there's an over supply and the market crashes that'd be the risk factor in a weird way all the political headwinds I think insure against that outcome because it is so hard to build data centers for all the reason we said there's a whole moral panic/ SL hysteria/hoax going on that actually it's those political headwinds I think will almost guarantee that there's not an overupp relative to the exponentially growing demand. So in a weird way you're
1:04:22protected against that. But Jake, could I could I shift gears for a second?
1:04:26Absolutely. Tell you what's so brilliant about what Jensen did here. There's one other part in return for that.
1:04:33They get a revenue share above that floor.
1:04:36Who who gets the revenue share above the floor?
1:04:39So they I think the way I think the deals will work is hey we're willing to guarantee offtake at you know nowhere near $30 or $50 a watt. We're willing to guarantee offtake at a very lowrisk revel level that with our really high resolution view of like productive capacity and future model trends we're comfortable with. And in return we get some revenue share above probably a higher level. And Morgan Stanley wrote a great note, I think two days ago. Nvidia
1:05:08could become, and these are effectively royalties, these revenue shares. They could very quickly become a very large cloud with a capital light business. Let me tell you why I think what Jensen did was so brilliant. It's because the numbers are getting so big that the TAM is getting constrained by the ability to finance this buildout. And what he's doing is alleviating that finance constraint so that he can grow uh as big as the the the TAM actually is right is
1:05:38removing that constraint. So for just to take one example Elon wants to add somewhere around 6 to8 gawatt next year. We know that that would cost 3 to400 billion of capex. The company just raised 100 billion in its equity and debt offerings. So obviously they would have to go out and finance that somehow.
1:05:57And as we talked about in our previous episode, the simplest way to finance it would be to get seller financing from Nvidia, especially given that the payback period could be as quick as one year. So now Jensen is creating the you could say the line of credit using these big banks, using these big private equity shops, and he's making that available, and that's going to now benefit all of these downstream purchasers. I don't think it's circular.
1:06:23This is not a a circular situation like Gurley's worried about. This is I think Wall Street banks and private equity firms providing financing based on the expected cash flows that will be delivered from these GPUs. In some ways, Nvidia is kind of becoming the central bank of AI, the Federal Reserve of AI.
1:06:46That is like a way to kind of conceptualize what they are doing. And in the same way the Federal Reserve, like a lot of monetary policy, it works through private banks. Here you're going to have um and probably more banks will opt into this. You have private markets who are charging fees underwriting these deals and Nvidia is helping to facilitate that. So I don't think it's really circular financing.
1:07:11Yeah, I watched that CNBC special as well. One point that really stuck with me was when the private equity guys said that this was a little bit like what they do for plane financing where when an airline buys airplanes, they're able to finance it not just based on the creditworthiness of the airline, but rather because the airplanes themselves have value. And that makes it much easier to finance because you know that even if the airline gets in trouble, you're protected, right? you have
1:07:40assetbacked financing and that's what they're basically doing here with GPUs. Now, in order for that to happen, Nvidia has to standardize. They have to create essentially reference designs and so forth and so on so that it can all be standardized enough for these Wall Street guys now package it up and securitize it, turn it into securities. And that's basically what they're doing like they with mortgages.
1:08:04Yeah, I'll say there's two there's a reason why I'm not worried about this buildout. There's two um there's a governor like a throttle Gavin if you will. There's a governor on this which is the physics of the real world that we talked about in building data centers.
1:08:20There's also a dead man switch on this which is you know the switch that you have to hold down to run the train but if you have a heart attack your hand comes off the switch which is anthropic and open AI. These are the two biggest customers. One of them has scaled back open AAI their ambitions in this regard of their buildout from like 1.4 4 trillion to like butt 600 billion. And um then there's anthropic which we just said okay they're going to go to 400 billion in revenue next year something like that or they'll end the year at
1:08:49that run rate. If they don't need the compute or compute gets so efficient or open- source models create a headwind whatever it is they're going to take their hand off the buy button and that dead man switch will then slow everything down so we don't get a mortgage back security. Well, that could lead to a car crash. But actually, this is why I think it's the anthropic IPO is really important for the market is getting those quarterly earnings and be able to see their numbers every quarter.
1:09:17I think it'll become probably the most important signal that the entire industry has. Why? Because you got all these people out there saying that AI is a bubble. This capex is not justified.
1:09:26There won't be an ROI. And everyone's going to be looking to Anthropic's quarterly earnings as the pace car. Not just them. It'll be them and OpenAI and SpaceX, but you'd have to say the Anthropic right now is the pace car and they're going to be looking to them to see if the demand signal is there. And if there's a hiccup or a wobble, you know, it'll show up there first. Yes.
1:09:48If Enthropic slams on the brakes, there'll be a pileup of companies behind it because Enthropic, they're making 100 billion per gawatt, okay, of compute. That's why they're able to pay SpaceX say 50 billion a gigawatt, you know, spot price for compute. That's why SpaceX is then able to pay 30 billion to Nvidia for chips for the buildout.
1:10:12That's why Nvidia is able to pay TSMC and Micron and SKHix and all the way down. It's the entire food chain. So, if there's like a wobble, if somebody slams on the brakes, if the pace car slows down, the whole is going to feel it. But it's still better for those numbers to come out on a quarterly basis.
1:10:30I think it's such in a vetted GAP compliant way.
1:10:34So Gavin, as we're sort of saying here, there's a kill switch, there's a break, whatever you want to call it, is there enough space? Is there enough distance between the cars to not have a pileup?
1:10:47In other words, if Daario does slam on the brakes, if there are headwinds, does everybody go slamming into them or is there enough for the entire industry to say, "Okay, yeah, we're going to go 20% slower. We're going to go 30% slower."
1:10:59It's very simple. If he's slamming on the brakes because there's not demand, there will be a pile up. Okay. There's But there will be a pile. There's not enough room between the cars.
1:11:08Yeah. Yeah. If if it's because of demand. Now, if Dario is getting passed by SpaceX or OpenAI or an American or an American open source champion, yeah, there there's not a there's not a there there won't be a pilot. But I do think the Anthropic S1 is going to be really important and I think it's going to break a lot of people's brains. And the reason is is I think there are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these pro prognostications about AI with the
1:11:38assumption that tokens are subsidized.
1:11:41Anthropic is generating cash and like they kind of this fact is I would say kind of known in the world and I've actually never really spoken to Anthropic but it just you know it feels like there are enough signals that if you're to read the tea leaves of what has been said in public they're generating cash they're profitable open source tokens are profitable anthropic is profitable open AAI if they're not generating cash they will be imminently
1:12:08um SpaceX you same thing. And this when I hear these macro and value investors who are ignorant, they're very smart, but they're ignorant of the facts and they're making an assumption that tokens are subsidized and this is all going to collapse in some circular financing bonfire.
1:12:28Um, they're just wrong. The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. everyone and I think the anthropic S1 is kind of going to make that clear. But when I listen to these macro and value investors talk about AI, it's a little bit about me saying, you know, I'm very bearish on the world economy because oil is at $500
1:12:56a barrel. And you know what? If oil was at $500 a barrel, that'd be a good reason to be bearish. It's just not like they're just wrong. Like the simple fact is wrong. to be they're they're paid in some ways to be doom scrollers and merchants of doom. I I can tell you, you know, one framing of this that I've been working on, which is the number of people employed in the United States,
1:13:23like 150 million, 160 million, what their collective salaries are, 10 trillion, 12 trillion, whatever it winds up being. There is no world in which I don't see corporations and people in the economy spending five or 10% of the salaries of their employees on the equivalent in tokens. In other words, somebody makes $80,000 a year on average. They're going to you you you will spend $8,000 10% of their salary or a minimum of $4,000 to make them more
1:13:53efficient. We have an analogy for this. It's SAS software and compute computers on their desktop, mobile phones, etc.
1:13:59Just their general use of technology. If you put those numbers together, you're looking at a trillion dollars in AI spend just in the United States. It's obviously going to happen. And if if I'm wrong and it's half and it's 500 billion, well, that's kind of where these companies are trending. And that's not even talking about the rest of the planet, I think we're going to be fine, folks.
1:14:21All right, let's Yeah, let's um wrap up here. I got two more stories I want to get to. Uh we'll go uh lightning round here. Very interesting story coming out of New Jersey and New York around Amazon. New Jerseys AG has sued Amazon last week. They're arguing the company is cheating basically uh by hiring drivers through subcontractors. This has been well known. It's called DSP. This concept of delivery service partners is a very clever, perhaps too clever of a
1:14:50way for Amazon to shield themselves according to these lawsuits that are starting to pile up because if an Amazon driver crashes, there is liability and it gets you out of some, you know, things you might have to pay for if they were Amazon employees. On Monday, New York City mayor and friend of the pods, the Zoron Mandami, jumped into the fray. he is throwing his support and he did one of his big grin socialist Democratic socialist uh videos
1:15:20that he's now becoming famous for telling uh and demanding through municipal laws that will require Amazon to hire the drivers themselves. Quote, "Corporations like Amazon build billion dollar business models by insulating themselves from accountability through a system of exploitative subcontracting. This has been an issue for a long time.
1:15:41There have been tragically a number of deaths because these subcontractors are put under massive pressure and people get killed uh tragically when they've run into people because of them operating in the real world and because the drivers are technically employed by the DSP. Amazon claims, you know, hey, we're not the employer, so we're not on the hook and we don't have to get into union bargaining or labor obligations. So Sax,
1:16:08I'm curious your take on this in terms of the overall surge in people believing in socialism now and believing that corporations are cheating on the margins. Is Amazon cheating here? Is this too clever? And maybe they need to roll this back. I'm curious your opinion because it's getting momentum and it's going to be one of the big issues in the midterms and obviously in 2028.
1:16:38Well, I mean, this is a practice that's widespread. It's not focused on New York. I think Amazon's been using these networks of independent contractors as drivers for a while. And what they say is that if you deny them the ability to use these independent contractors, it will raise delivery costs. And there was a study that showed that the average household could pay hundreds of dollars extra. If you change this, it would slow down service. It would put thousands of
1:17:07jobs at risk at at small contractor businesses. And Amazon says that it could lead them to shift operations outside the city. Also, one thing that this DSP model does is it enables rapid scaling for peaks. So, holiday surges, dense urban routing, lower costs. It's a much more flexible arrangement than if everyone was just an Amazon employee. So this is how the market has evolved is I think maybe when they started Amazon probably was doing
1:17:35everything themselves and they started to decentralize it to these networks of small businesses these contractors. It actually ends up creating more jobs. It creates more entrepreneurship. I think these DSPs employ thousands of people in New York City. Those jobs would be threatened if you basically made them illegal. So I think this is a case where tax where do you stand on it?
1:17:59I would just let freedom of contract and voluntary exchange prevail here. And look this this market structure evolved for a reason. The workers liked it. The DSP owners liked it. Amazon liked it. These are mutually beneficial arrangements. I don't see the reason why Mdani has to insert the city in the middle of this.
1:18:19What I would do if I was if I was Amazon and I'm sure they will not do this. I would just put a search charge. Hey, this is the M Donnie. This is a Zoron mom Donnie fee that is being imposed on you. You're loads of people use Amazon, not just wealthy people in New York.
1:18:37Lots of people use Amazon. And this is the this is the Zoron mom Donnie fee as a result of this ill-advised policy. and have it as a line item in every bill because that's what it's gonna result in.
1:18:53When you compare Amazon service to anything government provides, it's insane how efficient Amazon is. You order your thing and it can be there the same day or at worst it gets delivered to you the next day. It's unbelievable how amazing Amazon service is. It's optimized for low prices for consumers and we're going to basically get in the middle of that and have the government get in the middle of Amazon's driver network. What city service does Mamani
1:19:20provide that remotely is as efficient as what Amazon does that he now is going to tell them how to run their business.
1:19:28It's insane. If you look at what Starbucks did when Schultz was running it, he gave people a job worth having and he took pride in taking the lowest paid people in the organization and give them a giving them a living wage. And that living wage is somewhere around 20 bucks, 22 bucks in these cities. These DSP drivers are actually paid quite well. 18 bucks, 19 bucks, 20 bucks. But this was not created uh in the free
1:19:56market as you're sort of saying Sachs and it was just what everybody wanted.
1:20:00No, this was created explicitly to benefit Amazon and to take the burden of these employees and put it onto the American taxpayer. And they are getting called out on it rightfully so by New Jersey and New York. And I believe, you know, and I'm a long-term uh Amazon customer. I've been, you know, a a prime subscriber since the beginning. It would be a dimminimous cost for them to make these employees full-time employees. And you'd still have some DSPs to scale up and down.
1:20:29Sure. But this is an opportunity for them to make those frontline workers part of the Amazon family. It would cost but 25 cents per delivery in New York to move them from this $189 an hour to give them a slightly higher pay raise, maybe 21, 22 bucks, and give them benefits.
1:20:47This is an easy thing to do. And what our industry what our industry has a crazy blind spot for is that they look for efficiencies and Amazon is the most efficient company in the world to the point of it being abusive to the most vulnerable members of our society and for being against the aspree to corpse of capitalism and this is a level of capitalism that needs to be self-corrected for and I think the
1:21:16government's going to have very valid arguments here. I think it would be amazing for Amazon to get ahead of this because this will be what the democratic socialists also known as socialist communists in my mind. This is a very valid argument that will sell with Americans who believe that this group of people is being taken advantage of and that we can easily afford to pay 25 cents more per package delivery. Yeah, Sax, you're right. It might add $100.
1:21:44Well, what if we have Uber do that too then, Jal?
1:21:46Absolutely. Uber has Uber was basically castigated for the exact same thing using independent contractors instead of making them full-fledged employees.
1:21:54It's actually make a great point about Uber and this would be the equivalent of if Uber had three or 4 thousand people representing their drivers and they had no exposure. Uh Uber actually has massive insurance exposure, massive lawsuits that they have to contend with for what those drivers do. So it's distinctly different and they've gone through this. I'm not a proponent of socialism, but I do think that there's an opportunity for Amazon, which is going to be automating along the way, to
1:22:24just take a little bit of uh uh a haircut on their amazing business, but then be on the right side of history and not take their employees benefits, unemployment, food stamps, and health insurance, and give that to the public to do. And these socialists are going to point this out in the next two election cycles to the point of absurdity. And it's going to play. Socialism is
1:22:52playing. Socialism is making inroads and it's infecting people's brains. And it's up to capitalists to say, you know what, we don't need to be as cutthroat and don't need to be as clever. So that's my message as a long-term shareholder in Amazon. I have a very big position in Amazon and I keep increasing it every year. they should do the right thing here and get ahead of this so that they can say hey we are an incredible employer as opposed to hey we really are trying to hide and move these expenses
1:23:21around that's my only point on it not a socialist not a cuck not uh interested in uh you know uh messing with capitalism I think they got a little too clever here that's my only point and I think they should do the right thing here and treat those the the the most vulnerable employees in the lowest docket.
1:23:41Now I know why you put this on the docket so you can get on your soap box.
1:23:44Well, no, no. I put it on the docket because it's one of the top news stories and I put it on the docket because we talk about socialism every week and we talk about all the virtues of capitalism and there are downsides to capitalism where we can get too clever and then try I think we spent too much time on this, but let me ask you a question. You said that you want Amazon to employ all these drivers. By the way, they all I think they should employ I know you said you wanted a bunch to still remain with I think the DSPs can happen.
1:24:10So, how do you decide which is which?
1:24:12I I I think they could proactively do that. It's a great question. Uh Andy Jasse could proactively decide just like Schultz did wants to get rid of the DSPs. He wants to make them all and I think there's a compromise here which is there are DSPs to scale up when there's demand during the holidays. seems like a great idea, but I think he should get ahead of it.
1:24:30As soon as you acknowledge that the DSPs are better because there are more flexible working arrangements that people want, why are you meddling in this arrangement to begin with?
1:24:39That's actually not true. The people who work in the DSPs, the DSPs themselves, the people who own those fragmented very small companies that go out of business the second they get in an accident to shield Amazon, those employees would very much like to have Amazon equity. They would love to get RSUs and they would love to get healthare for them.
1:24:56Some of the some of those drivers, they work for Uber a lot of the time and they toggle back and forth between being a driver for Amazon, being a driver for Uber. They like the flexible working arrangement.
1:25:07You're actually misinformed here. You're incorrect. These are people who are working full shifts. They're working 8 to 12 hour shifts. I think it's actually 10 to 12 hour shifts.
1:25:16I don't think you can speak for all these workers. uh you can speak for them if you they can speak for themselves and they are organizing and Amazon has been trying to break the organization efforts when they try to unionize and this is a tool for breaking that by forcing them to be part of the DSP that's the game on the field sacks well you already acknowledged that you think the DSP should stick around so I I think a portion of them should do that and I think Andy Jasse and the team at Amazon should get ahead of this because
1:25:45it's a bad look it's not in the best interest of capitalism to be this cutthroat. I think he should do it proactively. I don't think he should be forced to do it. That's my personal belief. The same way Schultz said there's an opportunity here to make baristas have a living wage and have benefits. And it was one of the best things Starbucks ever did. And it's really what capitalism should start thinking about. What is our role? What is our role in driving the move to socialism amongst young people? And this is an example of one of the reasons
1:26:13people are starting to believe in socialism is because they believe that companies like Amazon are cheating a little bit on the margins and maybe trying to take the expenses that they should incur and put them on the American taxpayer. And you know what?
1:26:26Mandami and New Jersey are going to win these lawsuits. I predicted now.
1:26:30Well, look, Jal, that all sounds really nice and I want to save capitalism as much as you do. And if Amazon doing that would really save capitalism, then I guess I'm game for it. But I'm not sure it will. What we do know it will do is raise the cost of packages by about $5.20 per package. And it will cost families $664 more per year, and it puts something like 5,000 jobs at risk. So there are real costs in terms of doing things the way that you're saying. When people are
1:26:59wearing their hat as voters, yeah, they fall for the socialism stuff, but then when they're consumers, when they're wearing their consumer hat, they just want to pay less for packages. They will hate the fact that packages cost $5 more. And like Gavin said, they should put the Mandani search charge on their orders. And it's not 25, it's $5. $5.20 per package. $664 per household per year in New York. That's crazy. That's a real cost. Talk about cost of living adjustment. That's a huge cost of living
1:27:28adjustment. Jay Cal has had internet issues and we're just moving on. Gavin, last issue. What did you think of Grockbot? What did you think of the releases that XAI made this week? I guess it was Grockbot and then also it was Grock 4.6, right? And people were saying that it is close to the frontier or at the frontier but a lot cheaper. So, I've been maintaining as of even last week that we
1:27:55were down to a frontier lab duopoly with anthropic and open AI. Was I wrong about that? Is this number three? Is it more flexible than and fluid than I thought?
1:28:06Yeah, I think it is. I mean, I think it's Can can we show up show that graph of the prao frontier? This is pretty wild. Now on the left, what this shows is kind of like quality or intelligence on the um y-axis and cost on the on the x- axis. So you want to be in the upper right quadrant. And you can see here you just want to be on the outside of this and you can just see like how disruptive
1:28:36Grock 4.6 is pricing, right? So as you sorry just as you move as if you move right on the x-axis it's getting cheaper and the y ais is the capability and it's getting more and more cable as you move up but they they invert the x-axis so that as you move to the top right it's better right exactly and I mean this is now and this is on cursor bench and xai you know SpaceX is you know almost certain you know they have a right to acquire cursor they're working with cursor so maybe
1:29:06this is grading your own homework well right here on the right, this is from Data Bricks, which just raised money at $190 billion.
1:29:15Um, this is a very real company that is very sophisticated. And you can see like even on this, you're well ahead of um, Fable 5, which you know, I think most people would would would kind of agree is the um, you know, the gold standard. Like this is you're you're you're higher quality at a slightly lower price. So I think rock 4.6 six is um you know the numbers are the numbers you know on X I think we
1:29:45put it down um people you you know we do have to wait and see the vibes but I think it's pretty interesting um DHH who I think created Ruby on Rails um David Hanmire Hansen yeah he posted something really positive base camp base camph David Hanmire 37 signals great great 37 signals base camp yes um he posted something really positive Um, you saw the data bricks evaluation, you saw our merkor evaluation
1:30:14and you so I think the early vibes are really good in these benchmark scores um are bearing out in the real world.
1:30:22Elon has caught up in other words and if you were to attribute why he's caught up, it would really be two reasons. Number one, he bought cursor. He's got that team. They're a dialed in team. Number two, he reshuffled the management of uh XAI and brought in his killers from SpaceX. Yeah, Gavin, those are the two.
1:30:43Absolutely. He brought in, you know, he brought in, you know, the the SpaceX aces. Um along with the cursor aces and some new people and it's and he did that in six short months. Gavin, never count Elon out. He's frequently late. He's never wrong. And he tends to overd deliver when it does come. And that's to his own admission.
1:31:03He's like, I'm always late, but I we get it right eventually. Yeah, absolutely. And this is still a relatively small model. It's 1 1.5 trillion parameter models. A larger model, Grock 4.7 that should be significantly more capable is coming out, you know, in a few short weeks.
1:31:20Grock bot is also seems just as important. It feels kind of like another open claw uh moment for AI for this kind of personalization of AI of making it democratizing AI making the same thing that Zuckerberg said in his manifesto. He wants to create bots for everybody and that's what Claude Co-work and Claude Tag both do exceptionally well as well as Hermy's Perplexia Computer.
1:31:46And I'm just going to admit for me some of those are like and I try to be very technical but I um like box not too too hard to use but it feels much easier to use for much easier to use. Open Claw and Hermes. You need to be Hermes.
1:32:08That's what I called them. They're Hermes. They're just like the P. If you've ever had that channel, it's like that. Sachs. Like you your you our wives order some channel once in a while and they brew birth us. Uh it is pretty amazing that in six months they caught up. But Sax, this creates a tension.
1:32:24This does create a little tension. He's hosting Anthropic. He's catching up to Anthropic. What do you think about that tension here that he's there Amazon Web Services, Elon Web Services at the same time as competing with them increasingly?
1:32:37What I love about it is that he's creating these huge compute clusters, right? And that gives him the ability to train a big model, a big potentially frontier model. So that you can think of that's like the call option is to catch up and become a true frontier lab. But if he fails at that, he's got the put option of just selling the compute at SPA at, you know, pretty attractive prices to the Frontier Labs and he has the right sachs to take that compute back from anthropic. He put that
1:33:06clause according to reports into the Anthropic deal so he could take back comput if he wants to.
1:33:11Right. Both sides have a 90-day cancellation which means that if the spot price of comput goes up, he benefits. If it goes down, by the way, it could hurt him because either side could renegotiate within 90 days, right?
1:33:22So, basically, Elon is able to charge spot minus 90.
1:33:28So, that's the risk, but it all it all goes back to, you know, what we were talking about before, which is do you think that compute will be supply constrained going into next year and the year after? And if so, that's a very advantageous dynamic for Elon because again, he's very close to charging true spot for his compute, but he can also essentially reroute it to his own service if he's able to take the lead.
1:33:51Yeah. And just can I say what's interesting? Sorry, sorry to interrupt, but no.
1:33:55I talked to a lot of investors about SpaceX. Okay.
1:33:58And what's just amazing to me is everyone will have a nuanced view on Starlink. Maybe they're a skeptical. Maybe they're a skeptic on Starlink direct to sell. I think the plan to use kind of um you know these distributed Starlink effectively almost you know we'll call them small cells fto cells is is interesting. Everybody will have a nuanced view on orbital compute. Um whether they're whether they're bullish or bearish they will have a view.
1:34:22They'll have a view on terrestrial compute.
1:34:25Very few of these investors talk about Grock at all. And it is parto dominant on a lot of measures. And we have an existence proof that anthropic went from whatever it is a billion to 50 billion really fast. And if anthropic is worth, you know, with two two trillion per the FT, you know, three or four trillion, you know, maybe settles on a previous settle out. Um I said I thought that was a market clearing price. I didn't say
1:34:53that's where I thought it was worth. Um, you know, maybe people should start to consider Grock when they think about SpaceX.
1:35:02SpaceX has so many ways to win and I think that's the the higher bit here is and it's and we're obviously all talking our book here. The folks on this podcast are amongst the earliest investors uh in Space X.
1:35:15I was part of leading um a small part of leading the second round of 10 billion. Hey, there is one thing that broke during the show that we should for sure talk about and that's that Silverlake may be buying workday. Workday is up 17%. And if this is true, this is I think a significant moment for the stock market. Um, you know, software has been in a death spiral that really kind of has started, you know, that probably, you know, troughed maybe 3, four months ago, but it was it was in a tough spot for 12,
1:35:4315, 18 months. and the return of a private equity bid for software really changes um the investing landscape. And I I don't know what the potential buyers of Workday are thinking, but I do know that the rise of open source and the increasing competitiveness of open source is a godsend for the American software industry. Um it is an absolute godsend.
1:36:09Yeah, if you want to throw up a charter workday, you know, like a five-year chart, you can just see it.
1:36:15But a world where you have one, two, or three dominant frontier models. I mean, you could just see the stock went from Yeah, we'll call it 300 straight down to a hundred um you know, in a really short period of time. And even with this bid, you've only recovered a little bit. But a world where Anthropic, OpenAI, and and you know, maybe even SpaceX are kind of the only model providers that dominate the model layer, that is a hard word world for software. If I were to guess
1:36:45why the private equity bid for software might be coming back, it's because they see what's happening with open source.
1:36:51Pretty amazing. And that is the backs stop, isn't it, Sachs? We've talked about this. If nobody in the public markets wants to own these companies and private equity sees away, we talked about uh bending spoons, I think, last week, a whole bunch. There is now, I think, I don't want to call them bottom feeders, but what would you call them, Gavin? like um you know sharp uh acquirers of e of money printing businesses that want to extract even more revenue from it. Yeah, this is a
1:37:21good turn of events that there's a buyer for these companies.
1:37:27I mean what what Silverlake is saying they've been oversold.
1:37:31They've been oversold. Yeah. And so here they go. There must be some value in that. And if you use AI to run these I think that was the thing Bending Spoons is doing really well. They get rid of 80% of the employees and then put the 20% who are left as AI first employees and they figure out how to get all of this incredible revenue. There's your breaking news. Gavin Baker, amazing tied right now. Just so you know, I looked at the metrics before we got on today. You're now tied with Brad Gersonner in terms of ratings. You and
1:37:59Brad Gersonner are neck andneck and tied for fifth bestie, which means one of you will drop to sixth bestie um if this continues. And we'll see. Brad Garcer may be on next week, so we'll see which bestie takes the fifth slot. David Saxs, great to see you. Hey, maybe we get a you around later. Maybe we can get a steak. You want to get a steak later?
1:38:17I'm I got Thursday night off here. I got a hall tonight.
1:38:20Yeah, maybe we can go get a steak. This has been an amazing episode of the All-In podcast for August 14th. We'll see you next time. Bye-bye. We'll let your winners ride.
1:38:34Rainman David and we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
1:38:42Love you. Queen of your besties are my dog taking your driveways. Oh man, my appetiter will meet the We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all just useless. It's like this like sexual tension that we just need to release somehow.
1:39:14That's going to be good. We need to get our I'm going all in.
